随着周五上证指数暴跌近百点，本周A股全线大幅下跌。这种暴跌，既是受海外股市影响，也是今年A股大幅上涨之后的内在需要。 持续上涨半年后，大盘进入调整阶段，有些指数已经回调一段时间，跌幅也不小，会不会继续大幅下跌还需要观察。 01 周K线均是光头光脚大阴线 本周A股非常弱，上证指数除了周三一根小阳线外，其余均是阴线，一周4根阴线今年4月以来的行情中并不多见。 上证指数周K线图 上证指数本周以3988.56点开盘后一路下跌，其中周五最为惨烈。周五上证指数以3896.66点跳空低开，直接跌破3900点大关，盘中仅仅反弹到3912.01点， 完全无力站上3900点，随后一泻千里，以几乎最低点3834.89点报收，当天下跌96点，跌幅高达2.45%。同时出现一个3927.51-3912.02点跳空缺口。 上证指数本周周K线收出一根光头光脚的大阴线，本周下跌155点，周跌幅为3.9%。 深证成指本周以13200.54点开盘，周五也是跳空低开大幅下跌，以当天也是全周最低点12538.07点报收，日跌幅达3.41%。周K线则是一根光头光脚大黑 棒，本周跌幅高达5.13%。 深证成指周K线图 创业板指数本周以3097.34点开盘 ...

在全球股市大幅调整之际，今天（11月21日）上午A股市场也出现调整。上证指数盘中跌破3900点。种业股逆势上涨，成为上午A股市场亮点之一。 另外，A股市场今天有一只新股上市，为大鹏工业，上午盘中该股涨幅一度超过800%，截至午间收盘涨664.56%。 港股市场上午盘中亦大幅下跌。港股市场极少数个股出现闪崩走势。比如实德环球上午股价闪崩，盘中跌幅一度达到50%。 A股市场上午盘中大幅走低 种业股逆市上涨 在全球股市大幅调整之际，今天上午A股市场也出现调整。 上证指数今天上午低开，跌破3900点，盘中跌幅超过2%。深证成指、创业板指、科创50指数上午盘中跌幅均超过3%。 具体板块和赛道方面，若按照申万一级行业划分，各大板块呈现普跌态势，其中综合、有色金属、电力设备、基础化工等板块盘中跌幅超过4%。电 子、通信、钢铁、纺织服饰等板块盘中跌幅也居于市场前列。银行、传媒、农林牧渔等板块相对抗跌。 招股资料显示，大鹏工业是我国领先的工业精密清洗领域专用智能装备生产商，产品及服务主要应用于车辆动力总成、新能源三电系统等核心零部件的 精密清洗领域，以满足下游客户的精密制造需求。同时，公司积极把握我国制造业高质量发展趋势，在现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets have entered a correction phase, with major indices in the US and Europe declining, leading to a cautious sentiment in emerging markets. This backdrop has resulted in a similar adjustment in the A-share market, where the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reached a ten-year high before falling back below the 4000-point mark, indicating a shift to a "high-level fluctuation and weakening" phase [1]. Market Structure on Friday - The market reached a high of approximately 4030 points, marking a ten-year peak, but subsequently fell back, closing below 4000 points. The daily candlestick formed a "small bearish line with a long upper shadow," indicating significant selling pressure in the 4000-4030 range and a weakening bullish sentiment [2]. - Approximately 3300 stocks declined, while fewer than 2000 stocks rose, highlighting a structural market condition where the index's new high corresponds with a majority of stocks declining [3]. - Around 89 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating that while there are still hotspots, the overall profit-making effect is limited to a few strong themes and leading stocks [4]. - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, forestry, certain electrical appliances, and coking coal showed structural strength, while semiconductors and some consumer sectors experienced notable pullbacks, reflecting rapid sector rotation and a lack of solid main lines [5][6]. Volume and Moving Averages - Trading volume fell below 2 trillion, significantly lower than the volume levels observed when the index previously broke through 4000 points [7]. - The high-level volume contraction indicates insufficient willingness for new capital to enter the market, with more existing funds engaged in trading, leading to a cooling of short-term bullish expectations [8]. - The index closed below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, signaling a clear short-term trend weakening. The breach of these averages typically indicates a transition from a strong upward trend to a phase of adjustment or consolidation [11]. Potential Market Scenarios for Monday - Two probable scenarios for Monday's market performance are outlined: 1. **Scenario One**: A low open followed by a rebound, potentially closing with a small bullish line if blue-chip stocks stabilize and high-growth sectors see capital inflow [13][14]. 2. **Scenario Two**: A low open followed by continued weak fluctuations, possibly closing with a small bearish line if previous strong sectors lack sustained capital support [16][18]. Defensive Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a defensive posture, controlling overall positions to around 50% or lower, especially as the index fluctuates around the 4000-point mark [20]. - Focus on reducing exposure to high-flying stocks that have moved far from their moving averages, while considering defensive sectors with solid fundamentals and stable cash flows [22]. - The current high-level fluctuation phase suggests avoiding aggressive trading and instead waiting for clearer market direction before increasing positions [23].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market's upward trend is due for a pause as risk appetite is cooling down across the board [1] Group 1 - Jason Wong, a senior market strategist at BNZ, indicates that the market has been on a one-sided rise for some time [1] - The recent statements from the Federal Reserve may serve as a warning that the path of U.S. monetary easing is not guaranteed to remain unchanged [1] - An adjustment in the market is overdue according to Wong [1]

Market Performance - Government bond futures opened lower but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.34%, having previously dropped by 0.65% during the day. The 10-year main contract increased by 0.11%, after a drop of 0.21%, while the 5-year and 2-year main contracts rose by 0.10% and 0.02%, respectively [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" decreased by 0.9 basis points to 1.7520%, while the yield on the 30-year bond "25超长特别国债02" fell by 1.15 basis points to 2.1025%. Conversely, the yield on the 2-year bond "25附息国债17" increased by 0.25 basis points to 1.49% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 91 billion yuan for 7-day terms on October 14, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 91 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market remains flush with liquidity, with overnight repurchase rates hovering around 1.31%. Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight against credit bonds at rates as low as 1.4% [2] - The central bank also conducted a 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase operation, contributing to a total net injection of 400 billion yuan in reverse repos for the month, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] Operational Suggestions - Recent adjustments in the stock market, combined with liquidity easing and uncertainties in US-China trade relations, have driven a rebound in the bond market. The future trajectory of the bond market remains uncertain, with attention needed on the new fund redemption fee regulations and changes in market risk appetite [3] - The current liquidity environment and the normalization of the yield curve are expected to limit the extent of declines in long-term bonds. If the yield on the 10-year government bond rises above 1.8%, there may be renewed value in allocation, while yields around 1.75% and 1.7% could face resistance [3] - Short-term bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with the T2512 contract likely maintaining a range of 107.4 to 108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for potential adjustment opportunities [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly as investors expect the Federal Reserve to implement larger rate cuts to support a slowing job market [1][2] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a stagnation in the labor market for four consecutive months, with a rare downward revision of June's data showing a net decrease in jobs [1] - Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 10.2%, compared to 0% the previous day, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 89.7% [1] Group 2 - The weak job market has reignited concerns about potential recession risks, with investors adjusting their growth and earnings expectations [2][3] - Despite initial optimism in the market, the weak data led to a reassessment of corporate earnings and economic growth prospects [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but support from rate cuts and fiscal policies may provide upward momentum for the stock market by 2026 [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment institutions are exiting or shorting high-priced corporate credit assets due to expectations of a significant correction in the global corporate credit market, influenced by weak non-farm payroll data indicating a slowdown in U.S. economic growth [1][6][10] Group 1: Corporate Credit Market Dynamics - The corporate credit spread is nearing a 27-year low, suggesting that corporate bonds are overpriced relative to the economic recession risk [1][4] - The credit market is currently pricing in an overly optimistic economic scenario, often referred to as the "Goldilocks" economy, which is not aligned with the more cautious growth forecasts from official sources [4][13] - Recent data shows that the spread for investment-grade bonds has tightened to approximately 78 basis points, the tightest since November of the previous year, indicating a potential mispricing in the credit market [6][10] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Global asset management firms and major investment banks are adopting a defensive stance, with some reducing exposure to cash bonds and shorting high-yield bonds [4][5] - There is a notable increase in demand for financial products that bet against indices or junk bonds, indicating a shift in institutional investor sentiment towards hedging credit risk [9][10] - Analysts suggest that the corporate credit market often leads the stock market, with historical precedents showing that credit market downturns typically precede declines in equity markets [6][9] Group 3: Economic Growth Expectations - Current credit spreads imply a global growth forecast of nearly 5%, which is significantly higher than the International Monetary Fund's estimate of around 3% for the year [13] - The probability of the U.S. entering a recession is estimated at about 40%, raising concerns about the potential for increased risk across major global economies [13] - High-yield bonds, which are crucial to economically significant sectors, are seen as particularly vulnerable to corrections, which could subsequently impact the stock market [10][13]

Group 1 - Analysts believe that the Indian stock market will face adjustment pressure due to the U.S. imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1][4] - The sectors most affected include oil, pharmaceuticals, textiles, footwear, and jewelry, as these industries are closely tied to U.S. trade [1][6] - Foreign investors sold $2 billion worth of Indian stocks in July and an additional $900 million in August, indicating a trend of capital outflow amid rising uncertainties [4][5] Group 2 - The Indian economy has approximately 20% of its export goods (2% of GDP) directed towards the U.S., making it vulnerable to the new tariffs [6] - The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant declines, with the NSE Nifty pharmaceutical index breaking key technical support levels, indicating potential further declines [7] - Companies like Reliance Industries may face pressure if India succumbs to U.S. demands to limit oil purchases from Russia, which could impact refining margins [6]

Group 1 - The article features a weekly financial program titled "Xiao Ao Jiang Hu" presented by senior financial broadcaster Huang Jin and former chief economist Li Da Xiao [1] Group 2 - The program aims to provide insights and analysis on the stock market and economic trends [1]

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent significant events impacting the financial markets, including changes in tariffs, monetary policy actions, and market performance trends. Group 1: Important Events Review - On June 3, President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4 [2] - On June 5, the central bank announced a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [2] - On June 5, President Xi Jinping and President Trump had a phone conversation, agreeing to continue discussions to implement the Geneva consensus and hold new talks [2] - On June 5, the European Central Bank decided to lower three key interest rates by 25 basis points during its monetary policy meeting [2] Group 2: Weekly Market Review - From June 2 to June 8, the bond market experienced a slight increase due to the central bank's announcement of a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, providing liquidity support [4] - The domestic stock market saw significant recovery, with investors favoring short-term high-volatility stocks, particularly small and mid-cap stocks due to their smaller market capitalization and diverse themes [5]