编者荐语： 沪深 300 指数 1 2 月出现反弹，日均成交 4 265 亿元，环比减少 8% ；全月最高点 4676.13 点，全月最低点 4 484.27 点，基本符合 我们的预期。 | 表 1: 市场主要分类指数表现: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 上海综合指数 | 沪深 300 指数 | | 2025年11月末收盘点位 | 3,888.60 | 4,526.66 | | 2025年12月末收盘点位 | 3.968.84 | 4,629.94 | | 涨跌幅 | 2.06% | 2.28% | | 2025年12月最高点位 | 3,983.98 | 4.676.13 | | 2025年12月最低点位 | 3,815.84 | 4.484.27 | | 2025年12月日均成交量(亿元) | 7.741 | 4,265 | | 2025年11月日均成交量(亿元) | 8.069 | 4,638 | | 成交增减% | -4.1% | -8.0% | | 资料来源:申万宏源研究、Wind | | | 转载自申万宏源证券上海分公司，仅供参考。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 12 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4120.43 | 0.92 | | 深证成指 | 14120.15 | 1.15 | | 沪深 300 | 4758.92 | 0.45 | | 中小 100 | 8672.11 | 1.26 | | 创业板指 | 3327.81 | 0.77 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 传媒 | 5.31 | 银行 | (0.44) | | 综合 | 3.60 | 非银金融 | (0.20) | | 国防军工 | 3.29 | 建筑材料 | 0.01 | | 计算机 | 2.90 | 交通运输 | 0.03 | | 有色金属 | 2.78 | 农林牧渔 | 0.34 | 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S13005110 ...

Group 1 - The core investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of US stocks, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [1][4][12] - US stocks recorded an 18% return in USD terms, but this is largely attributed to the devaluation of fiat currencies, creating a "valuation illusion" [5][12] - The S&P 500 index, when priced in gold, actually declined by 28%, highlighting the disparity in performance when considering different currencies [5][12] Group 2 - The US stock market significantly underperformed compared to non-US markets, with European, Chinese, and Japanese stocks outperforming US stocks by 23%, 21%, and 10% respectively [18][20] - Emerging markets showed an overall return of 34%, indicating a substantial capital shift away from US assets [19][20] - The interest of foreign investors in USD-denominated assets is waning, as evidenced by the negative returns of US Treasuries when priced in gold, which saw a -34% return [5][6] Group 3 - The valuation of US stocks appears to have peaked, with long-term equity expected returns at 4.7%, which is lower than the 4.9% return on bonds, indicating a low equity risk premium [23][24] - The disparity in profit distribution, where capitalists benefit more than workers, is raising concerns among leftist political forces, potentially impacting future profit margins [7][22][23] Group 4 - The political landscape is shifting towards extreme left and right forces due to affordability crises driven by inflation, which is expected to lead to significant conflicts by 2027-2028 [5][9][35] - The transition from multilateralism to unilateralism is increasing military spending and sanctions, further diminishing the attractiveness of USD assets [9][35][36] Group 5 - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital, private equity, and real estate are under pressure, facing significant debt rollover challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [8][26] - The current low liquidity premium in these markets may lead to a decline in value relative to liquid assets, indicating a potential liquidity trap for investors [8][26]

瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊向上海证券报记者表示，2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从2025年的 6%进一步升至8%。名义GDP增速提升、企业营收增长、支持政策持续出台，以及"反内卷"政策的推进 带动利润率复苏，都将对整体盈利改善起到推动作用。 法国巴黎资产管理首席市场策略师Daniel Morris在报告中特别提及，中国利润增长的最大潜力集中在科 技行业。他表示，相比于其他新兴市场，中国科技行业还具备一项额外优势：中国科技企业收入更多来 自服务领域而非商品出口，因此受贸易政策影响较小。凭借庞大的国内市场规模、高素质的工程技术人 才储备，以及发展自身技术生态系统的决心，中国科技公司能够实现显著的未来利润增长。 （上接1版） 花旗私人银行同样在近期的投资报告中称，新兴市场板块中，维持对中国市场的超配评级。为了优化资 产配置，该机构日前减持了中国以外的亚洲新兴市场股票。鉴于亚洲新兴市场今年以来表现亮眼，花旗 私人银行认为现在可以考虑获取利润，并为来年投资组合调整布局。 企业盈利改善是核心驱动力 展望2026年，外资机构普遍对中国股票持积极观点，而在一系列驱动因素中，企业盈利的实质改善成为 支撑市场向上的最关键所在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in trading volumes for various ETFs, particularly the 中证A500ETF, indicating strong institutional interest and a potential bullish sentiment in the market [1][2][3] - On December 17, multiple 中证A500ETF products reached record trading volumes, with 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF achieving a trading volume of 14.118 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The 中证A500ETF is recognized as a new generation of broad-based ETFs, balancing core large-cap assets with growth potential across various leading companies in niche sectors [1] Group 2 - Institutional investors are significant holders of broad-based ETFs, with over 80% of the shares in 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF held by institutions as of June 30 [1] - The trading activity of other broad-based ETFs also surged, with 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF reaching a trading volume of 5.079 billion yuan and 华夏科创50ETF at 3.948 billion yuan on the same day [2] - Since November, net subscriptions for equity ETFs have totaled 105.241 billion yuan, with a notable single-day net subscription of 15.688 billion yuan on December 16 [2] Group 3 - The 港股 innovation drug theme ETFs have also attracted significant capital, with 汇添富港股通创新药ETF and 广发港股创新药ETF seeing net subscriptions of 3.624 billion yuan and over 2.7 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Several ETFs have reached new highs in terms of shares outstanding, including 南方中证A500ETF with 25.131 billion shares and 华夏恒生科技ETF with 66.012 billion shares [3] - New fund launches have maintained high interest, with several funds exceeding 1.3 billion yuan in issuance in December, and some funds announcing early closure of their fundraising [3] Group 4 - Institutions generally hold an optimistic view on equity assets, with 富国基金 noting that the equity risk premium for the 沪深300 index remains above one standard deviation, indicating attractive risk compensation [4] - Continued macro liquidity support is expected to create a favorable environment for equities and commodities, with a moderate expansion in the global credit cycle [4] - The combination of ongoing domestic demand policies and stabilizing external demand is anticipated to further solidify corporate profit recovery [4]

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者姚立琦 1 1 月市场小幅调整。 2025 年 11 月，上证综合指数震荡调整，日均成交环比下降。 当月收盘 3888.60 点，较 2025 年 10 月末下跌 1.67% 。上海市场日均成交额为 8069 亿元，环比减少 16% 。 11 月上证指数实际的高点是 4034.08 点，低点是 3816.58 点，基本符 合我们的预期。沪深 300 指数 10 月基本平盘，日均成交 4638 亿元，环比减少 26.1% ；全月最高点 4707.13 点，全月最低点 4421.81 点，基本符合我们的预期。 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 美联储 12 月降息预期主导全球资本市场走向。 美联储十月议息会议后，关于 12 月是否降息的预期出现了明显的波动。首先是美联储主 席鲍威尔发言偏鹰派，导致降息预期的大幅下滑和全球资本市场的调整。 11 月 21 日，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表偏鸽言论，称近期仍有 进一步降息空间，市场对 12 月降息的预期概率迅速攀升至近 70% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the Shanghai Composite Index and the implications of Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global capital markets, highlighting the importance of market support and resistance levels [1][6][11]. Market Overview - In November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60 points, down 1.67% from the end of October 2025, with an average daily trading volume of 806.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% [6][10]. - The highest point for the Shanghai Composite Index in November was 4034.08 points, while the lowest was 3816.58 points, aligning with expectations [9][10]. - The CSI 300 Index remained flat in October, with an average daily trading volume of 463.8 billion yuan, down 26.1% [6][10]. Federal Reserve Influence - The anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly influenced global capital market trends, with market expectations for a rate cut rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams [6][11]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index rose to 5.74 at the end of October, indicating a decrease in investor risk appetite, marking a second consecutive month of increase [7][13]. Market Profitability - In November, the number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% decreased to 218, an 8% decline, indicating a return to a more stagnant market environment [7][15]. - The number of stocks with gains over 50% increased, suggesting that while overall profitability is declining, specific sectors may be experiencing stronger performance [7][15]. Trading Volume and Price Relationship - The average daily trading volume fell for the second consecutive month to 1914.7 billion yuan, down 11.5% from October, reflecting a typical correlation between trading volume and market price movements [7][17]. Price Movement Analysis - The current market rally has not yet reached the average growth levels seen in previous major uptrends, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experiencing significant price adjustments [8][19]. - Historical data indicates that the average price increase for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during uptrends is approximately 115% over 30 months, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sees an average increase of 172% over 29 months [8][19]. Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently facing resistance after a downward adjustment in November, having broken below the 60-day moving average, with key support now at the levels established in 2021 [6][21]. - The CSI 300 Index also showed significant adjustments in November, with two downward gaps and a breach of the 60-day moving average, indicating potential challenges ahead [6][24].

文/ 申万宏源证券研究所所长、博士后科研工作站负责人 王胜 金 融 学 研 究 未 来 ， 定 价 未 来 ， " 看 长 做 短 " ， 2 02 6 年 资 本 市 场 的 实 际 表 现，更多取决于投资者对中长期基本面的预期变化。"十五五"是我国冲刺 20 35年远景目标的关键五年，从全球维度看，这一阶段世界格局正经历 深度调整，我国主动扩大国际公共产品供给，更带领广大发展中国家推动 构建更公平合理的全球新秩序；聚焦国内，现代化产业体系加速构建、新 质生产力培育全面推进。 金融强国资本市场应该具备什么样的特征 有实力、有信心的主动开放是资本市场迈向金融强国的时代背景。随着综合国力与产业实力的跃升，中国在全球格局中的定位有所提升，从 "一带一路" 倡议的持续深化，到全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议的落地推进，中国正提供更多基础设施建设、贸易便利化、公共卫 生合作等领域的公 共产品，覆盖发展中国家核心需求。这种供给并非单向输出，而是基于"共商共建共享"原则，形成"中国赋能全球、全球反哺中国"的共赢格局，为国内产 业出海、资本跨境流动开辟广阔空间。而经济韧性、产业竞争力与金融风控能力的增强，让中国更有 ...

Core Points - The CSI A500 Index experienced a decline of 4.27% this week, closing at 5325.99 points as of November 21 [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 6047.97 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.94% compared to the previous week [6] - All 40 CSI A500 funds saw a decline, with losses exceeding 3%, indicating a broad market downturn [6] Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index closed at 5325.99 points, down 4.27% for the week [2][6] - The total trading volume for the week was 30239.84 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 6047.97 billion yuan [2][6] Top Performers - The top gainers for the week included: - Aerospace Development (000547.SZ) with a gain of 31.77% - BlueFocus Communication Group (300058.SZ) with a gain of 20.18% - Tongcheng New Materials (603650.SH) with a gain of 14.75% [4] Bottom Performers - The top losers for the week included: - Defang Nano (300769.SZ) with a loss of 19.27% - New Zhongbang (300037.SZ) with a loss of 17.98% - Goodwe (688390.SH) with a loss of 17.59% [4] Fund Performance - The total scale of CSI A500 funds has fallen below 200 billion yuan, currently at 1920.64 billion yuan [6] - The largest funds by scale include: - Huatai-PB A500 ETF with 256.97 billion yuan - E Fund A500 ETF with 226.45 billion yuan - Guotai Fund's CSI A500 ETF with 212.14 billion yuan [6] Market Analysis - According to Huaxin Securities, the A-share market is currently in a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, influenced by external factors such as the rising US dollar index and internal factors like profit-taking in technology stocks [7] - The report indicates that while there are signals for a short-term adjustment, the bull market is still in its mid-stage, awaiting further capital inflows from residents, public funds, and foreign investments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the A-share market, highlighting a recovery in profit growth for listed companies, expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and changes in market dynamics indicating a shift towards a more cautious investment environment [6][11][12]. Group 1: Profit Growth of Listed Companies - The profit growth of A-share listed companies has turned positive after a prolonged period of decline, with a non-financial and "three barrels of oil" adjusted net profit growth rate of 7.0% in Q1 2023, followed by low single-digit growth in the subsequent quarters [6][11]. - The expectation is for continued low positive growth in Q4 2023, aided by a lower comparative base in 2024 [11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 63.00%, down from 91.70% a week prior, indicating internal disagreements within the committee [12]. - Despite the decrease in probability, a rate cut remains a likely event, which may still influence market risk appetite [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risk Preferences - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index showed a slight recovery to 5.70 at the end of September, interrupting a downward trend that had persisted since April, suggesting a slight decline in investor risk appetite [7][15]. - The number of stocks with over 20% gains in October 2025 dropped to 237, a 41% decrease from the previous month, indicating a significant reduction in market risk appetite and a return to a sideways market structure [18]. Group 4: Market Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance after attempting to break out of a trading range in October, suggesting the need for further market consolidation [20]. - The CSI 300 index experienced volatility, with significant technical resistance at levels established during the second half of 2021, while key support levels are identified at the 2016 and 2020 lows [24].