证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 ❑ 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/赵闻恺】A 股策略周报：偏多震荡相互拉扯，战略认慢牛、战术细操作——20251008 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 09 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 10 月 09 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/潘高远/费瑾/王瑞明】季度宏观经济报告：切换在冬季——20251007 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜/廖博/潘高远/费瑾/王瑞明】季度宏观经济报告：切换在冬季—— 20251007 1、所在领域 宏观 2、核心观点 股票方面，我们认为 APEC（中美两国元首会晤的潜在窗口）后，市场风险偏好可能渐进转弱。 1）市场看法 看好科技 2）观点变化 持平 3）驱动因素 三季度数据更新 4）与市场差异 APEC 后切红利 3、风险提示 中美摩擦超预期；国内基本面下行风险超预期。 1.2 【浙商策略 廖 ...

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 A 股策略周报 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 08 日 偏多震荡相互拉扯，战略认慢牛、战术细操作 ——A 股市场运行周报第 61 期 核心观点 国庆节前两个交易日，主要宽基指数多数收涨。从国庆期间外盘表现看，欧美、日韩 整体上涨，港股、A50 指数小幅下跌（截止 10 月 8 日 10:00），预计 A 股节后开盘大 概率是震荡格局。展望后市，我们推测上证指数有两种运行路径：一是直接突破前高， 形成日线 5 浪结构；二是先进行区间震荡，此后再行突破。基于"战略看多 A 股走势， 战术执行细化操作"的判断，我们建议：若遇到上证指数回踩震荡区间下沿，则以逢 低增配为主，依旧中线看多做多。行业配置方面，建议绝对收益资金重点关注有补涨 需求的券商板块（尤其是年线附近品种），同时盯紧近期走势稳健、利好频出的地产板 块（后续可延伸至基建工程）；考虑双创指数目前高风险、高收益特征，建议相对收益 资金采取"三项对策"：一是采取上升趋势线或相关均线作为操作依据；二是区分中、 短仓位，短线仓缩短操作周期；三是在科技板块内"高切低"，不断发掘年线附近的补 涨品种。 ❑ 上周（20 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown steady growth this week, with a cumulative increase of 5.98%. The sector's performance has lagged behind the market, indicating potential for rotation and catch-up opportunities. Key factors include ongoing policy easing in first-tier cities and a year-to-date increase of only 7.9% in real estate, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 14.9% [3] - Concerns regarding the de-stocking rate of "good houses" have risen, necessitating further interest rate cuts and cost reductions. The supply of "good houses" remains relatively scarce due to reduced land acquisition and new construction by developers in recent years. Adjustments in second-hand housing prices are seen as a response to the de-stocking of new homes [3] - The report suggests maintaining a mid-term perspective on quality companies benefiting from industry trends, with a focus on short-term stock price realization. Recommended stocks include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others with stable mid-term performance [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector's stock performance this week outpaced the CSI 300, with a rise of 5.98% compared to 1.38% for the index. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector stands at 66.62, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 14.13, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [3][23] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities decreased by 7.3% week-on-week, with 14,000 units sold. In contrast, second-hand home transactions increased by 8.5%, with 17,000 units sold. Year-to-date, new home transactions have dropped by 24.3% compared to the previous year [10][12] - Inventory levels remained stable, with a total of 9,129 million square meters across 16 cities and a de-stocking cycle of 21.6 months [13] Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - China Overseas Development: Strong land acquisition and sales performance, with a low valuation of 0.4 times PB and a dividend yield of 3.7% [5] - Greentown China: Recognized for quality and strong land acquisition, with a market cap of 229 billion RMB and a sales ratio of 15% [5] - China Resources Land: Stable dividend and strong operational performance, with a projected dividend yield of 4.37% [5] Policy Environment - The Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market-oriented approaches to activate idle land, indicating a supportive policy environment for the real estate sector [7]

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, capturing industry trends through diffusion indices; Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly and monthly performance of various industries, calculating the diffusion index for each industry. The formula for the diffusion index is not explicitly provided in the report; Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant drawdowns during market reversals[25][26][29] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Construction Idea: The model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process minute-level volume and price data, aiming to capture trading information; Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factors, which are derived from the deep learning network's analysis of trading data. The specific formula for GRU factors is not provided in the report; Evaluation: The model has struggled to capture excess returns in a focused market environment, particularly in 2025[32][33][37] Model Backtest Results - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.97%, Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Index: 1.94%, August Excess Return: 4.54%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: 5.08%[29] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 1.85%, Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Index: 0.93%, August Excess Return: -2.53%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -7.65%[37] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: Diffusion Index; Construction Idea: The factor is constructed based on the momentum of industry prices, capturing the upward or downward trends; Construction Process: The diffusion index is calculated weekly and monthly for each industry, ranking them accordingly. The specific calculation method is not detailed in the report; Evaluation: The factor has shown mixed performance, with significant drawdowns during market reversals[25][26][29] - Factor Name: GRU Factor; Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks analyzing minute-level trading data; Construction Process: The GRU factor ranks industries based on the network's analysis, with higher ranks indicating stronger trading signals. The specific calculation method is not detailed in the report; Evaluation: The factor has struggled to capture excess returns in a focused market environment, particularly in 2025[32][33][37] Factor Backtest Results - Diffusion Index Factor, Top Industries: Comprehensive (1.0), Nonferrous Metals (0.973), Communication (0.971), Banking (0.965), Media (0.945), Retail (0.916)[26] - GRU Factor, Top Industries: Petroleum and Petrochemical (3.38), Non-Banking Financial (3.16), Retail (2.59), Food and Beverage (1.29), Electric Power and Utilities (0.21), Coal (0.16)[33]

Group 1 - The main indices are experiencing an upward trend, with expectations for continued highs in the market [1][5] - The technology sector is likely to see high-level distribution after significant gains, with large funds having already profited [1][3] - The white wine sector is identified as a key variable influencing the market, particularly for the Shanghai Composite Index [3][5] Group 2 - The market is expected to remain active, with a high number of stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating positive market sentiment [3][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a critical level of 3888 points, with a potential breakthrough anticipated if no negative news arises [5] - The current market dynamics suggest that while some stocks may lag, they could rebound in the coming trading days [5][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, aligning with previous expectations [1] - The "rate cut trade" in the U.S. stock market is anticipated to become clearer, with a focus on "catch-up" trading logic dominating the market [1] - Similar to the "rate cut trade" in July 2024, sectors sensitive to interest rates such as Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology are expected to experience upward trends [1] Group 2 - The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are still somewhat distant from the company's views, suggesting a potential for slight declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index [1] - Powell's dovish remarks and a weaker dollar are expected to boost global equity market risk appetite [1] - The anticipated rate cuts are likely to support gold prices, although there is a caution regarding potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of maintaining discipline in trading strategies, emphasizing that missed opportunities are not due to mistakes but rather the need for optimization in decision-making [1][2][3] - It highlights two specific trading scenarios: semiconductor stocks and stablecoin stocks, analyzing the reasons behind the outcomes of these trades and suggesting improvements for future operations [1][2] - The article suggests a strategic allocation of positions in five stocks, focusing on a mix of core and supplementary stocks to balance risk and capitalize on market opportunities [2][3] Group 2 - The article outlines a detailed operational plan for the upcoming trading day, including strategies for both high and low opening scenarios, emphasizing the importance of volume and trend analysis [2][3] - It stresses the necessity of setting stop-loss limits for each stock to prevent significant losses, recommending a 5% stop-loss for core stocks and a 4% stop-loss for supplementary stocks [2] - The article concludes that maintaining a disciplined approach while optimizing trading strategies can lead to successful outcomes, particularly in light of favorable market conditions [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose on August 22, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing nearly 2% in the afternoon session [1] - The semiconductor sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 11% and SMIC increasing more than 7% [1] - The automotive sector also showed strength, particularly with XPeng Motors, which saw its stock price rise over 10% following a share buyback by its chairman [2] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) attracted nearly 5.5 billion HKD in net inflows over the last 20 trading days, indicating a strong interest in tech stocks [2] - The ETF includes 30 leading Hong Kong tech companies, focusing on the AI industry chain, with major players like Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, and BYD identified as potential "seven giants" of Chinese tech [2] - DeepSeek announced the release of DeepSeek-V3.1, which features significant adjustments and is designed for the next generation of domestic chips [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a general recovery in July, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index, influenced by improved market sentiment and policy catalysts [2] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile upward trend in July, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Composite Index increasing by 7.1% and 6.7% respectively, due to easing overseas disturbances and a recovery in domestic risk appetite [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven dynamics, with potential for a breakout above the 2024 mid-year peak [3] - Focus on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and potential rebound opportunities, particularly in coal, steel, photovoltaic, and building materials, with a rotational rebound characteristic anticipated [3] - Key industries to watch include electronics and machinery, with specific attention to chemical fibers, engineering machinery, military electronics, aerospace equipment, and automation equipment [3] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed previous highs and is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic supportive policies in the context of US-China competition, as well as independent internet technology companies [5] - High dividend and low volatility strategies are also advised, particularly in telecommunications, public utilities, and banking sectors, providing stable income as a foundational investment [5]

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed signs of recovery in July, with major indices generally rising, driven by improved market sentiment and policy catalysts. The ChiNext index had the highest increase of 8.7%, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the smallest increase of 3.1% [1][8] - The steel, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well due to ongoing anti-involution policies and infrastructure projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station [1][8] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a steady upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 7.1% and the Hang Seng Index by 5.5% as of July 25, 2025 [1][10] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven growth, with potential to surpass the peak of the second half of 2024 [2][12] - Focus on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, including coal, steel, photovoltaic, and construction materials, as well as opportunities in electronics and machinery equipment [2][13] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "rotation and rebound" characteristic, with attention on industries that have lagged behind but have shown strong historical performance [2][13] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed previous highs and is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong profitability in the Hong Kong market and low valuations in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][19] - The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high dividend yield sectors, including telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][19] - Key stocks for August 2025 in the A-share market include Dongfang Caifu, Hainan Huatie, and Huayou Cobalt, while the Hong Kong stock recommendations include China Life, Xinhua Insurance, and Tencent Holdings [3][24][28]