对于宏观方面的影响，前期特朗普政府"海湖庄园协议"中提及美元储备货币地位导致美元被相对高估的弊端。从本届美国政府的主要政策措施来看，关税政 策多次反复、挑战美联储独立性、施压部分国家货币升值以及减税法案增加财政赤字均会增加美国经济的不确定性，削减国际市场对美元的信心，因此，我 们认为本届美国政府或有意加速美元去中心化、推动国际货币体系的多元化来实现制造业回流以及贸易赤字的扭转。根据历史数据，在过去美元下行周期 中，有色金属价格往往会实现上涨，因此中长期来看，宏观对有色板块的影响可能偏多。 二、原生铅增产空间有限 从原料来看，海外矿山方面，前期El Porvenir、Atacocha、Aripuan?矿山因降雨减产，Endeavor矿山生产时间推迟，Vares矿山商业化进展不佳，因此海外矿 石供应增量未达预期。中长期内随着Endeavor矿山投产，扩产矿山落地，以及前期受天气影响的矿山产量恢复，我们认为海外矿石产量或有所改善。但从进 口来看，由于发运周期的因素，RedDog矿山年内大幅减产的影响将在后续的进口量中集中体现，我们认为中长期内国内进口量同比增幅有限。 SHMET 网讯： 今年铅价整体呈现冲高回落的态 ...

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Asset Trends - The global monetary policy remains accommodative, leading to a surge in the supply of US dollars, which enhances the importance of gold as countries seek to diversify their settlement systems and reserve safety [1] - Decentralized assets like Bitcoin are attracting capital due to their scarcity, especially as the credit system faces challenges [1] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift towards a more diversified global monetary system [9] Group 2: Market Predictions and Economic Indicators - Analysts predict that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce during Trump's presidency, with similar forecasts from major financial institutions like JPMorgan [3] - Despite a weak dollar, the US stock market continues to perform well, supported by the export advantages of high-tech companies and increased overseas profits [7] - The dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is diminishing, with institutional investors shifting towards gold, Bitcoin, European sovereign debt, and emerging market stocks [5] Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The upcoming market dynamics will be influenced by geopolitical conflicts, trade disputes, growth expectations, and technological competition, which could trigger new volatility [9] - Key trading themes for the second half of 2025 include the potential for gold to reach new highs, the impact of a weak dollar on US equities, and the implications of rising debt and slowing growth on Federal Reserve policies [15] - The easing of US-China chip tensions and the potential for a resurgence in China's AI sector are also critical factors to watch [10]

Group 1 - The dollar index has experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10.8% in 2025, second only to a 14.8% drop in the first half of 1973 [1] - Key factors contributing to the dollar's decline include Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, negatively impacting the dollar's attractiveness [2] - Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for interest rate cuts have undermined market confidence in the dollar, as the independence of the central bank is crucial for currency stability [3] Group 2 - Market optimism regarding U.S. trade agreements has fueled strong expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar [4] - Following the dollar index's drop to multi-year lows, further downward pressure is anticipated due to dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and weak domestic economic data [5] - The significant depreciation of the dollar is likely to impact U.S. trade dynamics, making exports more competitive while increasing import prices, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [6] Group 3 - The decline of the dollar is prompting central banks worldwide to reassess their foreign exchange reserve structures, with many increasing allocations to gold, euros, and renminbi to reduce reliance on the dollar [7] - A survey indicated that 70% of central banks believe the U.S. political environment hinders their investment in dollars, leading to a diversification trend that could reshape the global monetary system [7] - The future trajectory of the dollar index remains uncertain, influenced by trade policies, Federal Reserve adjustments, and global economic growth [7]

第二，借助稳定币崛起为美元提供强有力支撑。稳定币的原本目标是将数字资产的效率与传统货币的可 靠性相结合，降低数字资产的波动风险。特朗普政府的目标是推动普及实行 "1币 = 1美元" 的固定汇率 稳定币。此举将巩固基准美元的优势地位，进一步强化美元在全球货币体系中的主导作用。由于大多数 稳定币与美元挂钩，其广泛使用可能实际上增强美元的流动性，增加美元的需求，从而支撑美元的地 位。稳定币市场正向美元绝对强势的方向发展，区块链加密货币交易中的2/3是稳定币，超九成是与美 元挂钩的泰达币。其先发优势和流动性深度形成强大的网络效应，使得借贷、跨境贸易结算等高度依赖 美元体系。即使其他国家尝试发行非美元稳定币，也难以在短期内打破这种路径依赖。 白宫正在推动稳定币立法。在《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》获得美国参议院通过后，美国总 统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发帖称，"尽快把它送到我的办公桌上。不要拖延，不要附加条 件。"这项雄心勃勃的法案旨在借助稳定币的崛起提振美国国债市场，为美元提供强有力支撑，并巩固 美元贸易结算优势地位。但长远看，稳定币无法解决美国债务的不可持续性、货币政策的外溢效应等美 元体系的内在矛盾， ...

Core Viewpoint - A silent currency war has begun, highlighting the clash between national sovereignty and the borderless nature of cryptocurrencies in the new frontier of digital finance [1] Group 1: U.S. Strategy and Digital Currency - Trump's Bitcoin reserves and altcoin inventory aim to provide the U.S. with a decentralized advantage [2] - The U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policies are a strategic response to a $35 trillion debt crisis, with federal debt projected to reach 125% of GDP by the end of 2024 [6] - The establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and the removal of regulations limiting banks' participation in the crypto market are intended to enhance market liquidity [6][8] Group 2: Global Developments in Digital Currency - Dominica has legislated seven tokens from the TRON ecosystem as legal digital currencies, creating a basket currency system to mitigate market volatility [10] - The European Union is accelerating the development of a digital euro to counter concerns over U.S. stablecoins threatening its monetary sovereignty [10] - Hong Kong aims to establish itself as an "international virtual asset center," while the Central African Republic faces challenges with its national digital currency [10] Group 3: Technological Integration and Challenges - Emerging crypto wallets are crucial for bridging the gap between fiat and crypto assets, enhancing security and facilitating transactions [13] - The volatility of cryptocurrencies poses significant challenges for fiscal management, as seen with Bitcoin's price fluctuations [14] - Regulatory gaps are widening, with the U.S. prohibiting central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) while the EU expands its digital euro system [14] Group 4: Future of Currency and Financial Regulation - The future currency landscape may consist of a three-tier structure: state-backed digital currencies, cryptocurrencies as value reserves, and stablecoins facilitating cross-border transactions [16] - The push for digital currencies will lead to a more diversified monetary system, with potential implications for international currency competition [18] - Financial regulation will face new challenges, requiring a balance between innovation and risk management in the evolving digital economy [19]

Group 1 - The global economic and trade environment is undergoing profound changes, with increasing uncertainty due to high tariffs and rising protectionism, which suppresses corporate investment decisions and innovation [4][5] - The restructuring of the international trade and investment system creates new development opportunities for global South countries, as they can attract more trade and investment due to their competitive advantages in lower costs and tariffs [4][5] - The importance of enhancing domestic circulation in China is emphasized, with suggestions to break down barriers in the unified market, evaluate macro policies effectively, and support the development of the private economy [8][6] Group 2 - The need for China to increase fiscal spending and social security to stimulate domestic demand and achieve economic rebalancing is highlighted [7][6] - The diversification of the global monetary system is anticipated, with more currencies from emerging markets participating in international transactions and an increased focus on digital currencies for cross-border trade [9]

清华大学五道口金融学院特聘教授施康则认为，尽管市场对美元资产的信任度有所下滑，致使美元在市 场投资及储备货币中的占比下降，不过，其作为主要货币的地位还较难被撼动。 在贝尔卡看来，未来全球货币体系会向多元化、多极化方向发展，人民币会提升其在外汇交换中的角 色。 施康表示，长远来看，随着中国经济持续稳健发展，人民币实现充分可兑换和资本自由流动后，凭借中 国庞大的经济规模，必然能在全球货币体系中占据重要地位，这是一个水到渠成的过程。(完) 波兰前总理马雷克·贝尔卡指出，美国近年来的政策加剧了全球经济的不确定性，这导致曾经被视为所 有资产中最安全"避风港"的美元逐渐失去部分吸引力，美元作为全球主要外汇储备的地位在下降。 瑞银资产管理全球战略主管马西米利亚诺·加斯塔利说，美元正在走弱，尽管美元仍占全球外汇储备的 60%(较峰值73%显著下降)，但新兴市场央行正通过增持黄金和调整资产配置，降低对美元的过度依 赖。 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长胡晓炼表示，过去多年，世界上主要的国际货币是美元、欧元等几个大 型经济体货币，其中美元作用更加突出。但由于美元的"一家独大"，逐渐出现两个问题，一是货币"武 器化"，二是经济学里的" ...

面对复杂多变的国际环境、日益紧密的经济联系及快速迭代的技术革新，构建一个开放包容的经济与金 融体系，已成为推动全球可持续发展、实现共同繁荣的关键路径。 2025清华五道口全球金融论坛于5月17日至18日在深圳举办。国内外金融界学者、行业精英等汇聚论 坛，畅谈国际货币体系、贸易投资等议题。中国人民银行原行长周小川在论坛上表示，世界本是多元 的，国际货币体系也应该是多元化，多元化的国际货币体系更安全、更稳定、更抗干扰。 国际货币体系将更多元化 在美国债务持续攀升、财政赤字压力不断积聚的背景下，美元的信用正面临系统性削弱。人民币、欧元 等货币的国际化进程正在不断推进，多元化将成为国际货币体系未来发展的方向。 在联合国前副秘书长马克·马洛赫-布朗看来，全球正面临着一场真正的危机，国际秩序受到美国贸易政 策等方面的挑战。他认为，世界需要全球多边主义，危机或许也是重塑全球体系的机会，可以以此建立 更好的秩序。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华首席代表马歇尔·米尔斯表示，当前的贸易保护主义会延缓经济活动， 供应链的调整、变化使得企业面临挑战，导致各行业无法有效分享市场资源。解决问题的关键在于，各 国应该尽快消除贸易壁垒，化解 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international trade and investment landscape will undergo changes due to the tariff policies of the Trump administration, with three key areas of focus: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, internal economic structure adjustments in major economies, and currency rebalancing [1][2][4] Group 2 - Cost-effectiveness rebalancing in international trade and investment may increase opportunities for "global south" and emerging market countries, as traditional factors like labor and resources are now joined by innovation, institutional, and green development elements [1][2] - The difficulty of manufacturing returning to the U.S. is highlighted, as the U.S. lacks competitive strength in general processing and labor-intensive industries, leading to a preference for trade and investment in countries with lower costs and tariffs [2] - Major economies will experience profound adjustments in their internal economic structures due to global trade rebalancing, with the U.S. trade deficit increasing over 50% from 2017 to 2024, while the EU's trade surplus has grown over 400% [2] Group 3 - Currency rebalancing is expected to lead to a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks and increased participation of emerging market currencies in trade and investment [2][4] - The importance of digital currencies is emphasized, particularly their potential role as public goods for international cross-border trade and investment [3] - The possibility of enhancing the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function is also discussed, indicating a shift towards a more diverse and inclusive monetary system [4]

第二点，全球贸易的再平衡会引起主要经济体内部经济结构的深刻调整。过去全球化发展使贸易出现不平衡的问题，如美国贸易逆差急剧增加，欧盟和中国 贸易顺差扩大。解决贸易不平衡问题的关键在于各国推动国内经济调整，使得储蓄、消费、进出口、投资等方面的协调。"从历史经验来看，一个国家只有 在自身内部经济结构更均衡地发展的情况下，贸易不平衡问题才能够有效解决。"胡晓炼表示。 第三点，货币再平衡将会引导世界货币体系朝着更加多元、更加包容的方向发展。美元主导地位面临货币武器化和 "特里芬难题"，国际货币体系将从三个 方向演进：更多货币加入国际货币行列；对加密数字货币在跨境贸易、投资服务方面的探索将增加；国际货币基金的特别提款权（SDR）功能可能进一步提 高。"通过三个方向演进的可能性观察和讨论，可以看到未来的国际货币体系是更加多元、更加包容的货币体系。"胡晓炼总结道。 在谈及中国应对当前复杂局面时，胡晓炼表示中国充满信心与底气。从数据来看，2014—2024十年间，中国对外直接投资存量超过3万亿美元，是过去二十 多年的三倍。中国企业在国际投资领域发展迅速，这得益于中国企业的独特优势：投资主体以民营企业为主，其韧性强、拼搏精神足； ...