铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-10-10 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 歧， | 好， | 迟 | 方 | 游 | 产 | 美 | 符 | 假 | 期 | 延 | 分 | 外 | 下 | 合PMI | 向 | 面， | 化。 | 预 | 现 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海 | 各 | 的 | 大 | 体 | 案， | 况， | 方 | 前 | 表 | 变 | 据 | 较 | 下 | 总 | 此 | 综 | 预 | 应 | 体 | 情 | | | | | | | | | | | 位。 | 绪 | 数 | 生 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, driven by a weak US dollar and supply shortages. Macroscopically, the US government's shutdown and weak employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. Fundamentally, supply shortages in copper mines, such as the ongoing shutdown of the Grasberg mine and disruptions in other mines, have strengthened the support for copper prices. The主力 is advised to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely, with the main contract closing down 0.28%. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the supply was abundant. The supply pressure persisted, with high domestic operating capacity and increasing overseas production. The demand was weak, with electrolytic aluminum plants having high raw material inventories and low procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the short - term spot price of alumina will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the main contract moving up to around 21,000 yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro factors such as the US government shutdown and expectations of Fed rate cuts. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly in September, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. The demand showed structural characteristics, with some sectors improving but high aluminum prices suppressing downstream orders. After the holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the spot premium was under pressure. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices strengthened with the rise of aluminum prices, and the SMM spot ADC12 price also increased. The cost was supported by the rise of LME aluminum during the holiday and the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, and the demand showed a mild recovery but with limited volume. The domestic social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the import loss expanded. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract operating between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices maintained a strong operation, supported by low inventory and a weak US dollar. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the US government shutdown led to a weak US dollar index. Domestically, the supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The "strong outside, weak inside" pattern of zinc prices has been obvious since the second half of 2025. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc may rise due to macro - driving factors, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. It may maintain an oscillation pattern, with the main contract between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - Tin prices strengthened. The supply of tin ore remained tight, with low processing fees for smelters. Domestic tin ore imports in August were at a low level, and the crackdown on illegal tin mines in Indonesia before the holiday increased supply concerns. The demand was weak, with insufficient orders in the solder industry due to the sluggish consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. The follow - up depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar. If the supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [9]. Nickel - After the holiday, the nickel market showed a strong trend, driven by macro - sentiment and the overall boost of the non - ferrous sector. The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of the Fed's rate - cut path affected the market. In the industry, the policy expectations for the Indonesian nickel ore end have increased. The nickel ore price remained firm, but the nickel - iron market was sluggish, and the demand for stainless steel was weak. The demand for nickel sulfate was good in the peak season, but there were concerns about new production capacity and sustainable demand in the medium term. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, the stainless steel market rose slightly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the chromium - iron market was driven by demand and cost. The supply pressure was increasing, with an expected increase in steel production in September. The demand improvement was not obvious, and the social inventory decline was slow. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - On the first trading day after the holiday, the lithium carbonate market oscillated. The main contract LC2511 rose 0.27%. The supply - side news included the approval of mining reports by Guoxuan High - tech and the acquisition of a mining license by Zangge Mining. The fundamentals were in a tight balance during the peak season. The production increased last week, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. The demand was optimistic, with expected increases in iron - lithium and ternary orders. The whole - chain inventory continued to decline last week, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream seasonal restocking. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 85,740 yuan/ton, up 3.00% from the previous day. The premium/discount of SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained unchanged at 15 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed varying degrees of increase, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. In August, electrolytic copper imports were 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased, and the operating rates of copper rod production decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The premium/discount decreased. Alumina prices in various regions declined. The import loss of aluminum increased, and the monthly spread showed different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of some aluminum processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions increased by about 0.95 - 0.96%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions also increased. The monthly spread showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased. The operating rates of some enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The import loss decreased slightly, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. In August, refined zinc imports increased by 43.30%. The operating rates of zinc - related industries decreased slightly, and the inventory of zinc showed different changes [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose to 284,200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased significantly [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased slightly. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of tin decreased in different markets [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread changed [11]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased slightly, while imports decreased. The inventory in different markets showed different trends, with an increase in LME inventory [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the monthly spread changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while imports increased and exports increased slightly. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium - spodumene concentrate decreased. The monthly spread changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased, and the demand also increased. The inventory decreased in different links, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [14].

各路资金的强劲买盘让金价"超速"上行。 国庆假期接近尾声，黄金期货和现货价格先后突破4000美元/盎司。 10月8日，现货黄金价格首次突破4000美元，最高触及每盎司4049.6美元，年内上涨1413美元，累计涨 幅超53%。同时，COMEX黄金期货价格最高触及4071.5美元/盎司，截至北京时间10月8日18点44分，纽 约期金涨幅收窄至1.4%左右，报4061美元/盎司，年初至今涨超47%。 随着国际金价走高，10月8日，国内多个金饰品牌克价再创新高，多家站上1160元/克。老庙黄金金饰价 格达到1176元/克，周生生足金饰品标价达到1165元/克；周大福为1162元/克；老凤祥价格达到1160元/ 克。 分析人士认为，美国政府"停摆"引发的避险情绪升温，包括非农在内的重要经济数据未能按时公布，叠 加地缘冲突和全球宏观环境的不确定性，黄金配置需求再度被推高。 "各路"资金强劲买盘 资金面上，这轮金价大涨背后是各路资金的强劲买盘。 高盛在近期发布的报告中提到，近期金价上涨主要反映了三大"坚定买方"加大购买黄金：快速增长的西 方ETF仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购买，以及投机仓位的提升。尤其是西方黄金ETF的配 ...

受美国政府停摆期间投资者聚焦美联储利率前景的影响，铜价出现上涨。伦敦金属交易所铜期货价格盘 中最高上涨0.6%，延续了本月以来的大幅反弹势头。此前，印尼某大型铜矿及其他地区的供应中断已 为铜价提供支撑。与此同时，尽管交易员仍押注美联储将进一步实施货币宽松政策，但美国政府停摆已 导致可能影响美联储政策前景的经济数据发布受阻。交易员同时关注自由港-麦克莫兰公司旗下格拉斯 伯格铜矿的生产前景——该铜矿自上月发生泥石流事故后，生产一直受阻。该公司周日表示，已找到事 故中遇难工人的遗体，但自此前下调产量指引后，尚未更新最新的产量预期。 来源：滚动播报 ...

每经编辑｜陈鹏程 王晓波 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.51%，纳指跌0.28%，标普500指数涨0.01%。热门科技股多数下跌，AMD跌近3%，Meta跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%， 英伟达跌幅不足1%，苹果、微软小幅上涨。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.15%，中概股多数下跌，万国数据跌超4%，理想汽车跌近4%，小鹏汽车跌超3%， 蔚来跌超2%，哔哩哔哩、京东跌超1%；涨幅方面，百度涨超1%。 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.14%，报3912.10美元/盎司，本周累计上涨2.71%。COMEX白银期货涨3.45%，报47.97美元/盎司，本周累 计上涨2.82%。 美油主力合约收涨0.35%，报60.69美元/桶，周跌7.65%；布伦特原油主力合约涨0.42%，报64.38美元/桶，周跌6.99%。 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.18%报24378.8点，法国CAC40指数涨0.31%报8081.54点，英国富时100指数涨0.67%报9491.25点，创新历史 新高。 2 商务部就墨西哥近日连续对我发起多起反倾销调查答记者问 10月3日，商务部新闻发言人就墨西 ...

彭博Markets Live策略师马克·克兰菲尔德（MarkCranfield）表示 ， 目前日元的看涨预期正迅速升温，因 日本央行即将开启加息、美联储计划再次降息，而自民党领袖选举还将为日本经济带来更多刺激政策。 全球资产管理公司Orbis Investment Management Ltd.则在观望：若高市早苗胜选，市场可能出现混乱， 而该公司将把这种混乱视为增持其所持资产（如内需导向型股票）的机会。 本周六，日本执政党将投票决定下任领袖人选，候选人为改革派的小泉进次郎（Shinjiro Koizumi）与右 翼倾向的高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi），当前民调结果呈现胶着状态。在此背景下，各类交易策略纷纷 浮出水面。鉴于两位候选人的政策主张存在差异，此次选举结果可能对这个亚洲第二大经济体产生长期 影响。 以对冲基金Epic Partners Investments Co.为例，该公司已做好准备：一旦尘埃落定，若股市出现任何可 能的上涨，便会趁机抛售。 "我的目标是在胜者确定后，利用市场暂时的定价偏差获利，"这家位于东京的杠杆基金首席执行官竹秀 松（Hidematsu Take）表示，"如果高市早苗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the technology sector is attributed to market fluctuations, but there are expectations for a rebound, particularly for stocks related to Moer Thread, following positive developments and monetary easing policies from the central bank [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The technology sector experienced a significant drop last Friday, raising questions about whether this is a market correction or a sign of major players offloading stocks [1] - The central bank has indicated a monetary easing policy for the fourth quarter, which could support a recovery in the technology sector [1] - There is an 88% expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October, which may further influence market dynamics [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider buying opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in Moer Thread-related stocks, as there is potential for further increases post-holiday [1] - The current market position is seen as a good entry point, provided that the 10-day moving average is not breached, indicating a potential for upward movement after the holiday [1] - The internal investment and valuation principles, driven by industrial and financial capital, suggest that there is still room for growth in the technology sector [1]

Economic Data and Market Trends - The upcoming release of key economic data includes the US GDP for Q2, initial jobless claims, and durable goods orders [1][5] - The dollar index (DXY) has maintained its near two-week high at 97.80, indicating a strong dollar ahead of the US economic data release [4] - Initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 231,000 to 235,000, following a significant increase to 264,000, the highest in four years [4] - Durable goods orders are projected to decline by 0.5% in August, following a 2.8% decrease in July [4] UK Economic Outlook - The Bank of England (BoE) is under scrutiny regarding potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, with recent comments suggesting a cautious approach [6] - BoE's Megan Greene indicated that inflation risks have shifted upwards, and the central bank expects economic growth to rebound without significant labor market risks [6] - The BoE maintained interest rates at 4% after a 25 basis point cut in August, reflecting a "gradual and cautious" monetary easing policy [6] Currency Performance - The GBP/USD exchange rate is trading cautiously around 1.3450, influenced by a stronger dollar ahead of US economic data [3][9] - The recent trend for GBP/USD remains bearish, with the 20-day EMA acting as a key resistance level at 1.3514 [9] - Key support for GBP/USD is identified at the August 1 low of 1.3140, while resistance is noted near the July 1 high of 1.3800 [11]

Group 1 - Silver prices have risen for the third consecutive trading day, reaching a new high of $43.57 per ounce, the highest since August 2011, with current trading around $43.55, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.2% [1] - The Federal Reserve's initiation of monetary easing policies amid increasing economic uncertainty is a significant factor driving the strength of silver [1][3] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reducing rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, is favorable for non-yielding assets like silver [3] Group 2 - Strong employment data has supported the US dollar, which may exert some pressure on the upward momentum of precious metals priced in dollars [4] - Technical analysis indicates that silver has broken through the upper boundary of an upward channel, suggesting an upgraded strength in the upward trend, although a slight overbought condition may lead to a period of consolidation [5] - If silver prices retreat below $43.00, new buyers may enter around $42.55, potentially limiting the downside to the $42.20-$42.15 range, with further support at $42.00 [7]

"100年后我们已不在人世，但我们打算花费100年以上的时间来出售"，在日本央行做出出售ETF和REIT 的决定后，总裁植田和男表达了这样的决心。日银目前持有的ETF达到70万亿日元规模，虽然确定了逐 步、长期抛售的方案，但前路依然艰难…… 从2010年至2024年，日本银行（央行，以下简称：日银）在超过13年里实施了购买交易所交易基金 （ETF）及房地产投资信托（REIT）的政策，如今终于进入了向市场出售的政策退出局面。简单计算， 要完成规模膨胀至约70万亿日元的ETF与REIT的出售，可能需要超过100年的时间，预计日银在未来的 道路上将充满艰险。 "100年后我们已不在人世，但我们打算花费100年以上的时间来出售"。日银总裁植田和男在9月19日的 记者会上表明了以较长的时间跨度来出售ETF和REIT的决心。他同时否定了在宽松货币政策时期重新开 始购买ETF的可能性，称"不在考虑范围内"。 日银自2010年起，作为货币宽松政策的一环，启动购买ETF与REIT。这是一项罕见的政策，通过由央行 主动购买风险性资产，来干预股票市场。2013年，日银在启动"异次元宽松"政策后，购买规模大幅扩 大。 日本银行总裁植 ...