Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of U.S. CPI data has weakened the dollar and created uncertainty in the market, allowing the euro to maintain its structural strength and range-bound movement against the dollar [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently in a narrow range, with clear resistance at 1.16059 and support at 1.15627, reflecting indecision among traders as they await the delayed CPI data [3][14]. - The postponement of the CPI data has removed a crucial directional guide for the dollar, leading to a weakening sentiment towards the dollar while the euro has managed to hold onto recent gains [3][5]. Impact of CPI Delay - The delay in U.S. CPI data is a key factor affecting the euro to dollar exchange rate, as uncertainty leads to a reduction in dollar long positions, providing natural support for the euro [5]. - The forex market is currently in a "neutral mode," with traders managing expectations in the absence of new information, which tends to impact the dollar more than the euro [6]. Technical Analysis - The euro to dollar pair is in a consolidation phase, with a potential breakout expected after the CPI data is released, rather than before [7]. - The current technical outlook suggests that a breakout above 1.16059 could lead to targets at 1.16350 and 1.16688, while a drop below 1.15627 could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.15400 or lower [16][18]. Fundamental Drivers - The euro's resilience is attributed to several macroeconomic factors, including a narrowing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which diminishes the dollar's yield advantage [8][10]. - Improvements in European market sentiment, service activity, and industrial demand are providing support for the euro, with stability becoming an advantage rather than a weakness [9]. - The reduction of risk premiums related to energy concerns, bond vulnerabilities, and geopolitical issues has made the euro a safer choice when the dollar is under pressure [10]. Overall Outlook - The current macro environment allows the euro to maintain stability without needing to exhibit strong performance, as this stability is sufficient to support an upward trend when the dollar is weak [11].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading in a range below 0.6550, currently at 0.6545, with a slight increase of 0.02% as investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision [1] - Australian economic data shows positive signals, with September building approvals rising significantly by 12.0%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%, and household spending increasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year [1] - The TD-MI inflation indicator rose by 0.3% month-on-month in October, slightly down from 0.4% in September, while the year-on-year inflation rate increased from 3.0% to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - China's manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.2 in September to 50.6 in October, below the market expectation of 50.9, indicating potential impacts on the AUD due to the close trade relationship between China and Australia [2] - The market widely expects the RBA to maintain interest rates unchanged after three previous cuts, as overall inflation remains within the target range of 2%-3% [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate has maintained an upward trend since October 17, but requires new catalysts for a significant breakthrough [3] - Current trading range for AUD/USD is between 0.6538 and 0.6491, with support levels at 0.6440 and 0.6415, and resistance levels at 0.6630 and 0.6707 [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP preliminary value for Q3 is expected to show continued moderate expansion, with consumer spending being a key focus [1] - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October will reflect changes in consumer confidence following a decrease in inflation [2] - Japan's preliminary GDP for Q3 will be observed to assess whether the economy is recovering from weakness, particularly in exports and consumption [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, may influence the pace of interest rate cuts [3] - The EIA's report on crude oil inventory changes will impact short-term oil price dynamics [3] - The U.K. Manufacturing PMI for October will be monitored to evaluate the recovery of the economy in a high-interest rate environment [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes will provide insights into the latest assessments of inflation and economic growth [5] - Canada's GDP data for August will be released, with potential implications for short-term fluctuations in the Canadian dollar [6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statement are anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with Powell's speech expected to guide market direction [7] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting results will be closely watched for any adjustments to negative interest rate policies and yield curve control frameworks [8] - Australia's Q3 Producer Price Index (PPI) will be analyzed to observe inflation trends and the subsequent policy space for the Reserve Bank of Australia [9] - The final value of the U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for October will help determine if manufacturing activity is recovering [10] - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for October, as a leading indicator, may influence market perceptions of economic prospects [11]

Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The upcoming week will focus on the APEC leaders' informal meeting and the "Super Central Bank Week," where major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decisions [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on October 30, with internal divisions among members regarding labor market risks and inflation concerns [2] - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are also anticipated to maintain current interest rates, with the Bank of Japan cautious about early tightening and the European Central Bank ruling out further rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with August's data showing a persistent year-on-year increase of 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The U.S. will also release third-quarter GDP data, while China will announce the official manufacturing PMI for October, with expectations of a potential rise above the previous month's 49.8% [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Reliance Industries, India's largest private oil refiner, has decided to stop purchasing Russian oil following U.S. sanctions, which previously accounted for about one-third of India's total oil imports [5][6] - The international oil market saw a rebound after hitting a five-month low, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 5% and Brent crude oil futures increasing over 7% last week [10] - The recent sanctions against Russian oil companies have heightened concerns about supply disruptions, contributing to the oil price rebound [11] - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreasing, indicating a tightening supply situation [12]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base effect and strong external demand, despite a 27.0% decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, indicating a relatively positive signal driven by rising jewelry prices [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to low base effects [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The funding environment is gradually becoming looser, with key rates such as DR001 and DR007 at approximately 1.31% and 1.43% respectively, indicating a balanced but slightly relaxed liquidity situation [4] - The People's Bank of China has injected a net liquidity of 400 billion yuan through reverse repos, reflecting a supportive stance towards market liquidity [4] - Despite a balanced liquidity outlook, expectations for further monetary easing are weak, limiting the potential for further declines in funding costs [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Recent volatility in domestic asset prices is attributed to ongoing uncertainties from US-China trade tensions, although market sentiment has shifted towards optimism compared to April [5] - The necessity for moderate allocation of certain-term government bonds remains to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - Overall, holiday consumption data showed moderate growth, external demand remains resilient, and domestic inflation is low, providing support for the bond market [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the increase in gold and platinum prices, with gold rising to 1230 CNY per gram and platinum to 631 CNY per gram on October 15, 2025, indicating a positive trend in precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - The gold price increased by 45 CNY per gram from the previous trading day, while the platinum price rose by 13 CNY per gram, reflecting a significant upward movement in both markets [1][2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's Collins highlighted that both short-term and long-term inflation indicators are relatively stable, but there are concerns regarding the labor market, which is in a peculiar balance state with low unemployment rates [3] - Collins suggested that a further rate cut of 25 basis points may be appropriate, indicating potential monetary policy adjustments that could impact economic conditions [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, slightly higher than the 2.6% increase in July [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, remaining unchanged from the previous month [1] - Both the overall and core PCE price indices are significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2%, posing challenges for future monetary policy adjustments [1] Economic Impact - The increase in the PCE price index and core PCE price index indicates rising inflationary pressures, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates and monetary policy [1] - The U.S. government's tariff policies have contributed to higher domestic prices, increasing the economic burden on ordinary consumers [1] - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, serving as a critical reference for monetary policy formulation [1]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with a total market value loss of approximately $300 billion this week due to a wave of leveraged bets collapsing [1] - Major tokens in the sector were heavily impacted, leading to the weakest market sentiment since early summer [1] - Over $3 billion in long positions were liquidated across exchanges, exacerbating the downward trend [1] Market Dynamics - The forced liquidation of bullish positions in the perpetual futures market contributed to the rapid decline [1] - There is a lack of transparency regarding the true scale of current market leverage, as many trading platforms have not disclosed complete liquidation data [1] Economic Indicators - A report indicated that key inflation indicators showed a slowdown in growth last month, providing some buffer for the Federal Reserve in addressing labor market cooling [1] - This improvement in overall risk sentiment led to a slight rebound in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum [1] Expert Commentary - A senior director at market-making firm Wincent described the current pullback as a "healthy correction" [1] - Despite Bitcoin's price falling below the 100-day moving average and the total market cap of digital assets dropping below $400 billion, there are no signs of panic in the market [1] - However, there are warnings that short-term pressures may continue to drive prices lower, especially given the tighter correlation between digital asset prices and macro market sentiment compared to earlier this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the US indicates that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure remains above the target, posing challenges for its decision-making amid a weakening labor market [1] Economic Indicators - In August, consumer prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, leading to a year-on-year PCE inflation rate of 2.7%, up from 2.6% in the previous month [1] - The core inflation measure remains steady at 2.9%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, a key pillar of the economy, showed resilience in August with a growth rate of 0.6%, surpassing July's growth of 0.5% [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a moderate pullback on September 24, with the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closing at $3,768.5 per ounce, down $28.4, a decline of 0.75% [1] - The cautious sentiment in the market was influenced by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who emphasized the need to balance persistent inflation with the risks of a slowing job market, providing no new insights into future monetary policy [1] - The upcoming release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index also contributed to the cautious market sentiment, putting pressure on short-term gold prices [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.63% on the same day, closing at 97.873, which limited further increases in gold prices [1] - Despite heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there was a reaffirmation from both U.S. and Russian leaders to seek a peaceful resolution to the crisis [1] - Analysts noted that while short-term market sentiment is cautious, gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic uncertainty, especially as the Federal Reserve shifts towards a more accommodative policy [2]