欧股跌幅扩大，法国总理宣布将于9月8日对政府举行信任投票，导致法国10年期国债收益率周一跃升9 个基点，法国CAC 40指数跌超2%。美元收复了大部分失地，黄金回吐部分涨幅。亚洲股市下跌0.7%。 长期美国国债遭到抛售，收益率曲线陡峭。 美国总统特朗普罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的举动，正将美联储的独立性推向风口浪尖。 但随着Cook明确表示她不会辞职，市场的初步反应有所缓和。 8月26日，欧股跌幅扩大，法国总理宣布将于9月8日对政府举行信任投票，导致法国10年期国债收益率 周一跃升9个基点，法国CAC 40指数跌超2%。美元收复了大部分失地，黄金回吐部分涨幅。尽管如 此，紧张情绪依然弥漫，亚洲股市下跌0.7%。投资者对央行独立性的疑虑，导致长期美国国债遭到抛 售，收益率曲线陡峭。 联储独立性成焦点 包括分析师Lisa Schineller在内的一份报告写道： "如果政治发展对美国制度的实力、长期决策的有效性或美联储的独立性构成压力，评级也 可能承压。这反过来又可能危及美元作为世界主要储备货币的地位——这是一个关键的信用 优势。" 全球市场紧张情绪蔓延 特朗普此举的核心影响，在于撼动了市场对 ...

阿里巴巴、拼多多等中概股公布业绩。 上周国际市场风云变幻，俄乌冲突走向扑朔迷离，美联储主席鲍威尔释放降息信号。 美股涨跌互现。 道指周涨1.53%，纳指周跌0.58%，标普500指数周涨0.27%，欧洲三大股指全线走高，英国富时100指数 周涨2.00%，德国DAX 30指数周涨0.02%，法国CAC 40指数周涨0.58%。 本周看点颇多，美国7月个人消费支出（PCE）将是关键经济指标，这将影响美联储未来的降息前景。 在欧洲，各主要经济体消费者信心调查将提供有关美国实施贸易关税后经济状况的线索，此外多国8月 份的通胀数据也值得留意。在亚洲，韩国和菲律宾央行将召开议息会议。同时，外界继续关注俄乌首脑 谈判的前景。 美国关键通胀指标出炉 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上发表讲话，对就业市场疲软表示担忧，并为下个月降息的前景 打开了大门。伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据显示，美国货币市场预计9月份降息的可能性高达 89%。 财报方面，本周值得关注的企业包括英伟达、 CrowdStrike 、Snowflake、迈威尔科技等，中概股阿里巴 巴和拼多多等也将公布业绩。 原油与黄金 随着俄罗斯和乌克兰短期达成和平 ...

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 775.50 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.35% [1] - The highest and lowest points for gold futures today were 777.50 CNY and 775.40 CNY respectively, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] Group 2 - Allianz Group's chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, believes that the Federal Reserve may be acting too slowly regarding interest rate cuts [3] - El-Erian suggests that the Fed should have initiated rate cuts last month, highlighting the risks of relying too heavily on data [3] - Recent inflation data presents a mixed picture, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose significantly by 3.3% compared to the previous year [3] - Despite rising inflation, El-Erian notes that price growth expectations remain relatively stable due to structural changes in the supply side of the economy [3] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of deterioration, with July's job creation falling short of expectations and previous months' job growth data revised down by a total of 258,000 [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 788 CNY and 847 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 773 CNY and 830 CNY [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the有色金属 market is mixed. Some metals may experience price fluctuations due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical issues, and market expectations. For example, copper prices may be in a consolidation phase, aluminum prices may turn to a volatile state, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks. Meanwhile, long - term factors like the US easing expectations and domestic anti - involution policies may support nickel prices [1][3][9]. - The prices of various metals are affected by different factors. For instance, copper prices are influenced by raw material supply, inventory levels, and market sentiment; aluminum prices are related to inventory changes and downstream consumption; lead prices are affected by raw material shortages and high inventory at the consumer end; and tin prices are restricted by slow production resumption and weak demand during the off - season [1][3][7][11]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed up 0.38% at $9,721 per ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,730 yuan per ton. The price may consolidate and await further guidance from the Fed Chair's speech on Friday [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 25,000 tons. Domestic refined copper net imports in July were 218,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from June [1]. - **Outlook**: The market has expectations of interest rate cuts, and raw material supply is tight. Overall, copper prices may consolidate, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78,000 - 79,200 yuan per ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,600 - $9,800 per ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed up 0.37% at $2,577 per ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,565 yuan per ton. The price may turn to a volatile state [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.5 tons to 442,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 480,000 tons [3]. - **Outlook**: The US - Russia talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives. With low domestic inventory and strong aluminum product exports, aluminum prices are supported, but downstream consumption is weak. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,480 - 20,680 yuan per ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - $2,600 per ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20,095 yuan per ton, and the price increase may face resistance [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 200 tons to 31,400 tons [5]. - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Cost support is strong, but the large price difference between futures and spot may limit price increases [5]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.58% at 16,735 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1,971.5 per ton. The price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 65,800 tons, and LME lead inventory was 283,000 tons [7]. - **Outlook**: The lead ore inventory is tight, and the processing fee is declining. The demand from battery manufacturers is weak, and the finished product inventory is high. Overall, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to decline [7]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.26% at 22,265 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S remained unchanged at $2,776.5 per ton. The price still has significant downward risks [8][9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 135,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ore inventory is decreasing, but the TC of zinc concentrate is rising. Refined zinc imports are decreasing, and domestic social inventory is increasing rapidly. Downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in an oversupply state [9]. Tin - **Price Movement**: On August 20, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 267,840 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 184 tons to 7,329 tons, and LME inventory increased by 85 tons to 1,715 tons. As of August 15, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 10,392 tons [11]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight in the short term due to slow production resumption in Myanmar and transportation issues. The demand is weak during the off - season. As production resumes in Myanmar, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan per ton for domestic tin and $31,000 - $34,000 per ton for LME tin [11]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices fluctuated. The price may face correction pressure in the short term but has support in the long term [12][13]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided in the summary part. - **Outlook**: Downstream stainless steel demand improvement is limited, but long - term factors such as the US easing expectations and RKAB approval support the price. The SHFE nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - $16,500 per ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index dropped 4.05% to 82,832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed down 7.49% at 80,980 yuan. The price may have further fluctuations [15]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided in the summary part. - **Outlook**: The sentiment of bullish funds supported by supply disruptions has cooled down. The short - term support level of lithium prices has shifted upward, and attention should be paid to imports and industry news. The reference operating range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 77,000 - 82,000 yuan per ton [15]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: On August 20, 2025, the alumina index increased by 0.67% to 3,137 yuan per ton. The price may have limited downward space [17]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 tons to 75,000 tons [17]. - **Outlook**: The supply of domestic and overseas ore is disturbed, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 3,100 - 3,500 yuan per ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,820 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The price is expected to fluctuate [19][20]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1,078,900 tons, a decrease of 2.48%. The 300 - series inventory was 644,500 tons, a decrease of 1.99% [20]. - **Outlook**: The decline was affected by low - price selling by arbitrage institutions. The downstream is cautious in purchasing, and the steel mills have the intention to support the price. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate [20].

尽管上周令人担忧的生产者价格指数（PPI）数据公布后，债券市场已经降低了对9月降息50个基点的期待，但交 易员对美联储宽松计划的速度和规模仍过于乐观。 资深美联储观察人士、SGH宏观咨询公司（SGH Macro Advisors）首席经济学家蒂姆·杜伊（Tim Duy）表示，"认 为最新就业报告几乎确保9月降息的想法，推动了市场定价……而如果这个想法是错误的，市场定价可能会遭遇剧 烈逆转。" 他周一发布的新研究报告预测，美联储在下个月可能会有一次"混乱的保险性妥协降息"，但鲍威尔不会承诺后续 还有更多降息。杜伊预计，鲍威尔将把政策与后续数据挂钩，这会给固定收益市场带来不确定性。目前市场定价 显示，今年将降息三次，未来12个月共降息100个基点。 杜伊写道："9月降息并非板上钉钉，而是悬而未决、取决于下一轮数据，这对市场参与者来说将极为令人沮丧。" 杜伊认为，美联储鸽派的信心可能错位，这一判断基于劳动力增长放缓和通胀数据粘性。 杜伊指出，消费者仍具韧性，零售销售数据符合强劲预期，但通胀可能是降息的最大障碍。他提到，费城联储对 专业预测者的调查显示，2025年四季度通胀同比增速的中位数预测为3%。美联储偏好的通胀 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week's unexpected inflation data pressured gold and silver. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, far higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and 3.3% year - on - year, hitting a five - month high, cooling the expectation of significant interest rate cuts. However, the employment market's weakening may support gold and silver prices. The overall trade environment is still deteriorating, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" is pushing up the US fiscal deficit expectation. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, and gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts warms up [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 775.08 and 777.18 respectively, with price drops of - 0.72 and - 0.62, and declines of - 0.09% and - 0.08%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9217.00 and 9236.00 respectively, with price increases of 13.00 and 10.00, and rises of 0.14% and 0.11% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 160609 and 30505, and the open interests are 197655 and 131073. The trading volumes of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 420183 and 93581, and the open interests are 346128 and 224024 [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 1.99 and - 4.09, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 29.00 and - 48.00 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 773.09, 770.26, and 9188.00 respectively. The price changes are - 2.01, 0.47, and - 86.00, and the changes are - 0.26%, 0.06%, and - 0.93%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver is 37.99, with a price increase of 0.01 and a rise of 0.03% [2] - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.10, 19, 84.14, 7.21, and 7.52 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 2.00, 22, 83.58, 7.23, and 7.60 [2] Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current inventories of SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 36,345 kg, 1,141,555 kg, 38,636,332, and 507,551,254 respectively. The changes are - (no change), - 9,227.00 kg, - 6,088.67, and 536643 [2] Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury Yield, Brent Crude Oil, and USD/CNY are 97.8467, 6449.8, 4.33, 66.13, and 7.1891 respectively. The changes are - 0.36%, - 0.29%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.09% [2] Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2] Macro News - **Geopolitical News**: US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on August 18, and there may be a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Russia has made "some concessions" on five Ukrainian regions, and Putin has agreed to include a "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee clause in the future peace agreement. The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [3] - **Economic Data**: The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year, far higher than expectations. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, slightly higher than expected. The July non - farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the previous value was significantly revised down [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The industrial production growth is differentiated, with the electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive sectors leading, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] - High-end equipment manufacturing, such as shipbuilding and mobile communication base stations, has seen a surge in output, while high-tech manufacturing is accelerating, particularly in integrated circuits [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: Out of 41 industrial categories, 35 reported growth with an overall growth rate of 8%, slightly lower than June's figures. Equipment manufacturing grew at 8.4%, consistently outperforming overall industrial growth for 24 months [2] - **Fixed Asset Investment**: The overall growth rate of fixed asset investment has slowed to 1.6%, with real estate being a major drag. Excluding real estate, the growth rate is 5.3%. Manufacturing investment remains relatively stable at 6.2% [3][4] - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market is facing a negative cycle of weak sales, reduced construction starts, and investment contraction. From January to July, real estate investment fell by 12%, with a monthly decline of 17% in July [5] - **Consumer Retail Trends**: The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, showing a significant slowdown. However, policies promoting the replacement of old appliances have positively impacted retail sales in categories like home appliances [6] - **Service Consumption**: Service consumption grew by 5.2% from January to July, with a notable increase in travel and leisure services during the summer [7] Additional Important Insights - **Economic Forecast**: The economic growth rate for the third quarter is expected to be significantly lower than the second quarter, with real estate continuing to be a major drag on the economy. However, the target of 5% annual growth remains achievable [8] - **US Economic Data**: Recent US economic data, including CPI and PPI, showed mixed results. The PPI exceeded expectations, leading to market volatility, while the core CPI remains resilient [9][10] - **Inflation Dynamics**: Current inflation in the US appears manageable, with service prices rebounding, particularly in air travel and medical services. However, the prices of tariff-sensitive goods have shown mixed trends [10][11][12] - **Retail Performance in the US**: US retail data for July showed a solid performance with a 0.5% month-on-month increase, driven by promotional activities in department stores, although service-related sectors remain weak [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and challenges of various industries, particularly in the context of economic data and trends.

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has officially closed the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was designed to regulate banks' activities in the cryptocurrency and fintech sectors, and will now integrate this oversight into standard banking regulations [1][2] - The closure of the program follows a deeper understanding of the risks associated with cryptocurrency activities, particularly after the collapse of three banks closely tied to the crypto industry [2][3] - The recent actions by the Federal Reserve signal a trend of increasing acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry by U.S. regulators, moving away from previous stringent requirements [4] Regulatory Changes - The "Novel Activities Supervision Program" was established to enhance oversight of banks' involvement in digital assets and blockchain technology, focusing on areas such as crypto asset custody and stablecoin issuance [3] - The latest regulatory changes simplify compliance processes for banks engaging in cryptocurrency activities, while core regulatory principles like anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain unchanged [3] Market Sentiment - Financial markets are highly anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in September [6][7] - Recent inflation data has created uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some officials suggesting a cautious approach [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are currently at $37.86, having retreated from recent highs and are consolidating after breaking the upward channel [1][4]. Price Levels and Market Sentiment - The immediate focus is on reclaiming the 50-period simple moving average at $38.03, which has turned from a support level to a resistance level [2][4]. - The momentum indicators show a bearish bias, with selling pressure easing, but bulls have not yet gained control as silver prices face resistance at $38.03 [3][5]. - Unless silver prices can break above $38.03, the outlook remains neutral to bearish, with a potential retest of lower support levels [4][10]. Technical Indicators - The relative strength index (RSI) is at 46.66, recovering from oversold conditions but still below 50, indicating a mild bearish bias [6]. - The MACD shows that negative momentum is easing, with the histogram contracting and no bullish crossover present [7]. - Price structure indicates lower highs since August 5, with bulls facing resistance [8]. Potential Price Movements - If silver prices close above $38.03, they may rise to $38.50 or even $39.04; conversely, failure to break this level could lead to a retest of $37.31 or even $36.80 [9][12]. - Key resistance levels are at $38.03, $38.50, and $39.04, while support levels are at $37.31, $36.80, and $36.24 [12]. Market Condition - Silver is at a crossroads, with $38.03 acting as a pivot point; a breakout could rejuvenate upward momentum, while rejection may prolong consolidation or push prices back to recent lows [12].

Fundamental Analysis - International gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, testing the key support level of $3330 per ounce, with current trading at the lower end of this week's price range [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. July retail sales data, hoping it will provide direction for the stagnant gold market [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year rate of 3.3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.5% and previous 2.4% [1] - The month-on-month PPI surged to 0.9%, well above the anticipated 0.2%, impacting Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [1] - Following the PPI release, the probability of a 100 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 100% to 85%, with aggressive expectations for a 50 basis point cut nearly extinguished [1] - Federal Reserve officials have made statements indicating a lack of necessity for significant rate cuts, aiming to maintain policy flexibility [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) showed a significant downward trend, dropping over $40, indicating strong bearish momentum [5] - The price has broken below key moving averages, with the MA60 expected to continue exerting downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The current trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions, anticipating further declines after a brief rebound [5] Trading Strategy - For gold, a short position is recommended around $3355, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3343 to $3333 [6] - Silver (XAGUSD) also experienced a notable decline, with limited rebound potential, suggesting a bearish outlook [8] - The trading strategy for silver recommends short positions around $38.20, with a stop loss at $38.40 and target levels of $37.95 and $37.60 [8] News Events - Key economic data to be released includes Canadian wholesale sales for June, U.S. retail sales for July, New York Fed manufacturing index for August, and U.S. import price index for July, all scheduled for 20:30 [9]