当地时间11月19日，美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪 要。会议纪要显示，决策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 该纪要凸显美联储内部就通胀与失业哪一方对美国经济构成更大威胁存在巨大分歧，这也加大了12月利 率决策的不确定性。 中间派（包括鲍威尔、副主席杰斐逊等）则倾向观望，采取更耐心的方式进行政策调整。 传统货币政策框架要求"对症下药"——通过加息抑通胀、降息稳就业。但当前经济同时面临两方面压 力，使美联储陷入两难。激进加息可能加剧就业市场恶化，过早宽松或导致通胀再度反弹。这种"既要 抗通胀、又要保就业"的困境，被经济学家称为"轻度滞胀"。 根据最新公布的会议纪要，美联储决策层对通胀威胁的评估出现明显分化。部分与会者认为，剔除关税 因素后，当前通胀水平已接近政策目标。但更多委员强调，整体通胀率已持续超标运行，且缺乏明确证 据显示能在短期内可持续地回落至2%的目标区间。 值得关注的是，在10月底的议息会议上，尽管美联储做出了连续第二次降息25个基点的决定，但内部出 现双重异议：一位委员主张更大幅度的50个基点降息，另一位则坚持维持利率不变。这是自2019年以来 ...

来源：智昇财论 曾被市场视为下月板上钉钉的美联储降息，如今因官员们就经济基本面健康度、以及顽固通胀与疲软招聘孰为主 要风险产生剧烈分歧，演变为胜负各半的博弈。本文描述了目前市场上各联储委员的立场和观点，并摘录了机构 的观点。 美联储若缩减降息规模，将导致住房与汽车信贷成本维持高位。民调数据显示，抵押贷款与汽车贷款利率高企， 正持续推升民众对生活成本过高的普遍不满。 会议前瞻：FMOC投票出现罕见反对票或成大概率事件 多位美联储观察人士预警，无论12月9日至10日会议最终决定降息与否，都可能出现异常规模的反对票。 EvercoreISI分析师克里希纳·古哈测算，若决议降息，反对票可能多达四至五张；若维持利率不变，反对票或达三 张。从美联储历来寻求政策共识的传统来看，四张反对票将构成极度罕见的局面——上一次出现四名官员集体反 对的案例，还是1992年艾伦·格林斯潘担任主席时期。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周一坦言，外界常批评美联储存 在"群体思维"，源于其多数决策以全票通过的形式出台。"那些指责我们搞群体思维的人，做好准备吧，"沃勒周 一在伦敦发表演讲时表示，"你们即将见证很长一段时间以来最缺乏群体思维的美联储…… ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue interest rate cuts in December, with concerns about persistent inflation and tariff effects versus worries about weak employment and slowing demand [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - Some officials advocate for pausing interest rate cuts due to concerns over sticky inflation and tariff impacts [1] - Dovish members emphasize the importance of addressing weak employment and declining demand [1] - The government shutdown has interrupted key economic data, exacerbating the division among decision-makers [1] Group 2: Current Interest Rate Context - The current interest rate is in the range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - Market expectations indicate a slightly higher probability of a rate cut in December, despite the internal Fed conflict [1] - The situation reflects a rare "hawk-dove standoff" within the Federal Reserve in recent years [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, spot gold fell by $110.67, a decrease of 2.68%, closing at $4002.48, but it has seen a cumulative increase of 3.7% in October, marking the third consecutive month of gains [1] - Currently, gold is trading slightly higher around $4022 [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - As of October 31, the U.S. government shutdown has lasted for a month, and if a temporary funding bill is not passed by November 5, it will break the record for the longest shutdown in U.S. history [4] - Approximately 42 million low-income individuals, disabled persons, and the elderly will lose access to food assistance programs starting November 1, exacerbating food security issues [4] - The ongoing political stalemate between the Democratic and Republican parties continues to hinder the passage of necessary funding legislation [4][5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a rate cut in December due to risks of slowing employment [6] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with the probability dropping from over 90% to approximately 63% [8] - Key economic data releases this week, including the ADP employment report and the ISM manufacturing index, will be closely monitored as they may influence the Fed's decision-making [9][11][12] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Economists predict that the October non-farm payrolls may show an increase of only about 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.4% [11] - The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly rise to 49.5, but rising input costs and sales prices could heighten concerns about persistent inflation [12] - Overall, the stock market is in a delicate phase characterized by short-term optimism driven by earnings, while long-term risks remain [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming meeting, with no forward guidance anticipated due to increasing economic uncertainty [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The core inflation rate in Australia rose from a revised 0.7% in Q2 to 1% in Q3, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's target range of 2-3% [3]. - Domestic demand remains strong, driven by government tax cuts and energy subsidies, contributing to persistent inflation, particularly in services [3]. - Recent data indicates a rise in credit growth and record-high housing prices, suggesting that the financial environment is not overly tight [3]. Labor Market Conditions - The labor market shows signs of loosening, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, the highest level since September 2021 [4]. - A report indicated that the number of private sector job advertisements fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 7.4% year-on-year, reflecting labor market weakness [4]. Future Projections - Some economists predict that Australia may face a situation similar to the U.S., where moderate economic growth and rising unemployment could lead to a cooling of prices, prompting the RBA to consider rate cuts [4]. - The RBA is expected to maintain its current policy until there is clear evidence of economic direction, with some forecasts suggesting two rate cuts in the next year, bringing the rate down to 3.1% [5].

Core Views - The Federal Reserve officials are engaged in a heated debate regarding the direction of monetary policy, with notable divisions on the decision to lower interest rates [1][5] Group 1: Hawkish Perspectives - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack oppose the recent rate cut decision, emphasizing that inflation risks have not fully dissipated and cautioning against aggressive rate cuts [3][4] - Logan highlights that while overall inflation is declining, core service prices and wage growth exhibit "sticky" characteristics, warning that excessive rate cuts could accelerate inflation, forcing the FOMC to tighten policy again [3] - Hammack points out that the current policy stance is close to neutral but not fully achieved, citing that the November core CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, with service price increases still above pre-pandemic levels [3] Group 2: Dovish Perspectives - Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a gradual approach to rate cuts, stating that current rates remain significantly above neutral levels, and further cuts would not be a drastic measure but rather a moderation of policy [4] - Waller notes that the labor market has shifted from overheating to balance, but warns of potential upward pressure on unemployment due to reduced job creation by new businesses [4] - He also mentions uncertainties in fiscal policy, indicating that large-scale tariffs or fiscal expansion could raise short-term inflation, while long-term economic slowdown and debt burdens may limit policy flexibility [4] Group 3: Powell's Position and Market Reaction - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges significant internal disagreement on the path of rate cuts, stating that the recent 25 basis point cut to 3.75%-4.00% was a cautious choice balancing employment and inflation risks [5] - Powell emphasizes that the decision for December will depend entirely on economic data over the next six weeks, highlighting three uncertainties: government shutdown impacts on Q4 GDP, tariff policy effects on prices, and potential deterioration in the labor market [5] - Following these statements, market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased sharply from 80% to 55%, with the dollar index rising above 104, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts this week and in December, indicating that such decisions are not guaranteed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Concerns - Four Federal Reserve officials voiced their worries about the recent interest rate cut and the potential for another cut in December [1] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George voted against the 25 basis point cut, citing concerns over persistent inflation [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, both without voting rights this year, suggested they would oppose a rate cut if they had the opportunity [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Mester emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive policy stance to bring inflation back to target levels [1] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, while supporting the 25 basis point cut, highlighted the importance of ensuring that the policy stance remains tight amid stubborn inflation across various sectors [1] - Bostic noted that each rate cut makes the justification for further easing less clear, as rates approach a neutral level that may not effectively curb price increases [1]

Core Insights - The September CPI data indicates persistent inflation, described as "sticky," but it is not out of control, which is viewed as a positive sign [1][2] - Core inflation rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while the year-on-year increase stands at 3% [1][2] - Overall inflation rates met market consensus, although the year-on-year increase has slightly expanded, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures from tariffs that are diminishing consumer purchasing power [1][2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week, indicating a shift from focusing on combating inflation to addressing the deterioration of the job market [1][2] - This suggests that further rate cuts may be anticipated in the future as the Fed adjusts its monetary policy approach [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors including policy expectations, technical breakdowns, a stronger dollar, and reduced geopolitical risks. Citigroup has turned bearish on gold prices, predicting a drop to $4,000 within the next three months. However, medium to long-term support for gold remains due to global recession risks and central bank gold purchases, which are expected to exceed 1,000 tons by 2025. Investors should closely monitor the October CPI data and the Federal Reserve's meeting statements to gauge market direction changes [3]. Price Movements - As of October 24, gold prices fell below $4,060 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 1.85%. Silver prices also dropped, touching $47 per ounce, down more than 2% [1]. - Current prices include: - London Gold: $4,050.228, down $76.262 (-1.85%) - London Silver: $47.850, down $0.996 (-2.04%) - COMEX Gold: $4,071.3, down $74.3 (-1.79%) - COMEX Silver: $47.615, down $1.089 (-2.24%) [2]. Market Reactions - U.S. gold stocks fell in pre-market trading, with notable declines including a drop of over 4% for Coeur Mining and declines exceeding 2% for both Kinross Gold and Harmony Gold [2].

Group 1 - The US dollar has shown a strong start in the foreign exchange market, supported by risk aversion due to the government shutdown and heightened attention on the upcoming September CPI data [1][2] - The government shutdown has led to a "data vacuum," increasing the appeal of the US dollar as a traditional global safe-haven asset, resulting in sustained buying support [2][6] - The September CPI data, set to be released soon, is crucial as it is one of the first significant data points post-shutdown and provides insight into the true inflation situation [4] Group 2 - Economists predict a year-on-year increase of 3.1% in the September CPI, which would be the highest level since May 2024, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026 [4][6] - There is an asymmetry in the market's response to the CPI data; if the data meets or falls below expectations, the dollar may only see minor fluctuations, but a higher-than-expected figure could drive the dollar significantly higher [6][8] - Recent Canadian inflation data exceeding expectations has raised caution among traders, suggesting that US inflation may also remain resilient [6] Group 3 - Despite a cumulative decline of about 7% in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index for 2025, most of the losses occurred in the first half of the year, with the dollar showing resilience in the latter half [7] - The options market indicates optimism, with traders favoring the purchase of bullish dollar options, reflecting a belief that the dollar will continue to strengthen in the next three months [7] - There is a growing perspective that the market may be underestimating the dollar's rebound potential, as the relative strength of the US economy could limit the Fed's rate-cutting capacity [8]