本文来自微信公众号：局外人的视界，作者：卡夫卡不忙了，原文标题：《聊聊汇率》，题图来自：视 觉中国 论起真实购买力，RMB肯定是被远远低估了。 如今国际实物贸易里，RMB已经是第一货币了，很可惜，实物贸易在国际结算里占比也就5%，终究是 金融玩法才是来回捯饬的大头。 我们一直都说摸着石头过河，美帝这个老石头，都快被盘包浆了。好好的全球第一工业王国搞成现在这 样，连军工都不能自主可控，你还真不能怪别人。 强如美帝，没有谁能从外部害了它，把它拖到今天这个尴尬地步的就是该死的金融。 看起来搞新殖民模式，通过美元来向全球征收铸币税美滋滋，但实际上，想要保证美元全球流通就必须 先让全世界有美元。 美帝如果还是全球最大工业国，常年保持贸易顺差，请问谁手上有美元呢？ 人家都没有美元了，自然不会用美元，好容易弄到点美元，那不得跟宝贝一样收藏起来，那美元也就没 办法成为全球储备货币了。 所以你看，美国的贸易顺差跟黄金美元崩盘几乎是同一时间发生的。 现在美帝瞄准东大打贸易战，40年前美帝瞄准日本打贸易战，民间仇恨到华裔被认为日本人在酒馆活活 打死，凶手竟然还能在民意保护下只判了三年缓刑（陈果仁事件）。 所以你看，老美一贯就是这么 ...

中美关系已至不可挽回之境：一场关乎金融霸权的世纪博弈 文/胡铁瓜 近年来，每当有人向我询问中美关系是否已无法修复时，我都会斩钉截铁地给出肯定答复。这绝非危言耸听，而是基于一个铁一般的地缘政治现实——中国 的强势崛起已经实质性地威胁到美国赖以生存的金融霸权体系。这个残酷的事实，早已成为两国决策层心知肚明的战略共识。 究其根本，美国维系全球霸权的三大支柱——科技优势、军事威慑和金融霸权中，金融霸权才是其真正的命脉所在。通过美元这一世界货币，美国构建了一 个精密的\"金融永动机\"：华尔街的印钞机昼夜不停地运转，就能轻松换取中国的制造业产品、中东的黑色黄金和欧洲的奢侈品。这种躺着赚钱的模式，让 美国民众享受了近半个世纪的优渥生活。然而，中国的发展正在彻底打破这个看似完美的循环。 让我们深入剖析美国金融霸权的运作机制。第一层是基础的商品美元循环：美联储开动印钞机，新兴市场国家则用实体商品换取这些绿色纸片。但真正的杀 招还在后面——当这些美元流入各国后，华尔街的金融大鳄们便开始精心布局：他们先是推高目标国的房地产和股市，诱使当地投资者高位接盘，随后突然 抽离资金完成收割。这还不算完，美联储总会适时祭出加息大棒，导致依赖 ...

编者按 与会嘉宾围绕数字货币的底层逻辑、全球稳定币的发展趋势、稳定币与全球货币金融体系重构，稳定币与全球金融体系稳定性、稳定币对货币主权冲击及 中国应对等主题，展开深入交流探讨。 三个方面来应对。其中，香港作为中国外循环平台，在吸引外资、助力企业海外融资等方面作用重大，是中国"引进来"与"走出去"的重要通道与平台，对 巩固维护国际贸易秩序、助力人民币国际化意义非凡。未来香港可在保留现有货币体系的同时，依托香港金融监管优势，结合有限区块链、数字智能合约 等技术工具，创建与离岸人民币挂钩的稳定币及相关的离岸人民币资产体系。这既能开拓全新离岸人民币产品与服务平台，平衡美元主导的国际金融体 系；又能加速人民币及人民币资产国际化，稳固香港在数字金融时代的国际金融中心地位；同时防范美元塌陷场景下，因港币与美元挂钩产生的系统性风 险。 香港大学副校长、金融学讲座教授林晨在发言中系统比较了《香港稳定币条例》和美国《GENIUS法案》在监管与制度架构等方面的异同。强调稳定币正 成为连接"链上链下"的关键桥梁。"链下"ETF把比特币推向传统投资者，"链上"稳定币则把美元等现实资产引入加密世界，实现双向无缝衔接。美国7月18 日通 ...

Group 1 - The United States has shifted its focus from solely containing China to also targeting its allies for economic gains [1][3] - In 2022, the total tariffs imposed by the U.S. on its allies exceeded $65 billion, nearly double that of 2017 [3] - The U.S. is leveraging trade surpluses and legislative measures to compel investment back to its shores, particularly from Canada and Mexico, with a trade surplus of $120 billion in 2023 [4] Group 2 - The Inflation Reduction Act has led to at least €43 billion in investments moving from Europe to the U.S., highlighting the economic pressure on European nations [4] - Japan and South Korea have faced significant losses due to U.S. policies, with Samsung reporting an 85% drop in profits in 2023 [6] - The U.S. is employing a strategy of imposing high tariffs and then offering exemptions contingent on investment in the U.S., effectively pressuring allies [8][10] Group 3 - The U.S. has recognized that its financial dominance is waning, with the dollar's share in global reserves dropping to 58%, the lowest in 25 years [6] - The relationship between the U.S. and its allies has evolved, with allies now forced to choose between survival and principles, as stated by an EU trade commissioner [10] - The U.S. has adjusted its strategy to extract benefits from allies, requiring them to pay "protection fees" and transfer parts of their supply chains [12]

Group 1 - BlackRock, a major asset management firm, is rapidly penetrating the Chinese market, managing over $10 trillion in assets [2][5] - The firm has strategically positioned itself in key sectors such as renewable energy, fintech, and logistics, influencing China's economic landscape [4][12] - BlackRock's growth trajectory has been remarkable, evolving from a small bond management company in 1988 to a financial giant surpassing the total assets of the top ten global banks combined by 2023 [5][6] Group 2 - The proprietary "Aladdin" system allows BlackRock to analyze global political and market data in real-time, enhancing its investment strategies [8][10] - BlackRock's deep ties with U.S. government officials and its role in managing distressed assets during the 2008 financial crisis have solidified its position in the financial power structure [10][12] - The firm has become the first foreign company to obtain an independent public fund license in China, indicating its aggressive expansion strategy [12][14] Group 3 - BlackRock employs a "non-controlling control" strategy, where it influences company decisions without holding a majority stake, as seen in its investment in a tech firm in Beijing [14][16] - The firm has made significant investments in leading Chinese companies in the renewable energy sector, such as CATL and BYD, demonstrating its market foresight [16][18] - Regulatory actions have been taken against BlackRock's attempts to acquire strategic assets, highlighting the potential risks of foreign capital influence on national security [18][22] Group 4 - BlackRock's operations represent a new capital management model that leverages algorithmic advantages to influence corporate strategies and market trends without direct control [20][24] - The increasing data access and influence of BlackRock pose unprecedented challenges to China's economic security, necessitating enhanced regulatory scrutiny [20][22] - The Chinese government is strengthening its regulatory framework to prevent foreign capital from compromising critical industries and infrastructure [22][24] Group 5 - The narrative surrounding BlackRock illustrates the complexities of global finance, where capital, technology, and data intersect, necessitating a robust domestic financial system in China [24][26] - The future of financial competition will hinge on technology, data, and regulatory frameworks, rather than merely capital [28]

Group 1 - The article draws parallels between the Plaza Accord of 1985, which negatively impacted Japan's economy, and current U.S. strategies aimed at China, suggesting that the U.S. may be attempting to replicate this historical scenario [1][3][9] - The U.S. is facing significant trade deficits, particularly with China, which has emerged as a major manufacturing competitor, holding over 30% of global manufacturing value added in 2022 [5][9] - The strong dollar, driven by aggressive Federal Reserve policies, is seen as a tool to attract global capital back to the U.S. while simultaneously undermining China's economic growth [9][11] Group 2 - The appreciation of the dollar is eroding the profit margins of Chinese exporters, making it difficult for them to compete, as rising costs may lead to orders shifting to other emerging markets like Vietnam and India [7][9] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has diminished, now accounting for less than 11% of GDP, which raises questions about the sustainability of its economic strategies compared to the 1980s [9][11] - Some U.S. states are exploring alternatives to the dollar, reflecting growing concerns over federal debt and the stability of the dollar system, which could signify a fracture in the U.S. financial framework [13][15] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for China to find a balance between maintaining currency stability and ensuring export competitiveness, highlighting the challenges posed by potential passive appreciation of the yuan [13][15] - It warns of the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy on the global economy, underscoring the importance of developing a robust financial infrastructure to mitigate these impacts [15] - The current situation is framed as a gamble for the U.S., betting that China will not resist pressure as Japan did in the past, but the differing economic contexts suggest that outcomes may vary significantly [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent demands made by the U.S. to India during trade negotiations, highlighting the implications of these demands on India's international relations and strategic positioning in the Indo-Pacific region [1][3][9]. Group 1: U.S. Demands - The U.S. has made three key demands to India: opening its domestic market, reducing purchases of Russian weapons, and decreasing alliances with BRICS nations [3][5]. - U.S. Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with India, emphasizing the importance of early participation for better terms [1][3]. Group 2: Market Access - The first demand focuses on urging India to open its domestic market, as the U.S. views India's high protectionist tariff policies as a barrier to healthy trade relations [3][4]. - The U.S. has proposed a 26% tariff increase on Indian goods but has allowed a 90-day delay for negotiations, with a deadline set for July 8 [3][4]. Group 3: Defense Procurement - The second demand is for India to reduce its procurement of Russian military equipment, which the U.S. sees as a challenge to its strategic interests in South Asia and the Indian Ocean [4][5]. - The U.S. aims to shift India's military procurement towards American-made weapons, which could generate significant military sales revenue for the U.S. [4]. Group 4: BRICS Alliance - The third demand involves India reducing its alliances with BRICS nations, which the U.S. perceives as a threat to its financial dominance [5][7]. - The BRICS platform is crucial for India to maintain its international standing and economic cooperation, and distancing itself from BRICS could diminish India's influence in global governance [7][9]. Group 5: Diplomatic Implications - India's exclusion from the upcoming G7 summit highlights its diplomatic challenges, as it must balance relations with the U.S. while maintaining ties with Russia, China, and other BRICS countries [9]. - The ongoing negotiations and India's responses to U.S. demands will significantly impact its position in the global landscape and the political and economic dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that as of March 2025, Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China has reduced its holdings, causing China to drop from the second-largest to the third-largest holder of US debt [1][3] - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds have decreased to $765.4 billion, which is a significant reduction that has allowed the UK to surpass China in bond holdings [3][6] - The reduction in China's US Treasury holdings is seen as a strategic move that could impact the US financial system, especially amid ongoing trade tensions [3][6][8] Group 2 - The trade war has led to a large-scale sell-off of US Treasury bonds, resulting in a spike in bond yields and raising concerns about the US federal government's debt situation [3][6] - China has been strategically positioning itself in the international economic landscape, including building gold reserves and a cross-border payment system, which indicates a long-term strategy rather than a reactive measure [8] - The geopolitical implications of China's actions, including the reduction of US Treasury holdings and export controls on rare earth elements, suggest a broader challenge to US financial and trade dominance [8]

Group 1 - In March, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion, bringing the total to $765.4 billion, marking the first time in over 20 years that the UK surpassed China as the second-largest foreign holder of US debt with $779.3 billion [1] - The reduction in China's holdings is seen as a strategy to decrease reliance on dollar assets amid the ongoing US-China trade tensions, with potential further reductions expected in April [3] - The US Treasury bond market experienced significant volatility in April and May, with yields on 30-year bonds nearing 5% and 10-year bonds surpassing 4.5%, indicating a sell-off in the market [5] Group 2 - The unusual sell-off in April raised concerns about global confidence in dollar assets, which could threaten the foundation of US financial dominance [6] - President Trump expressed a willingness to visit China to discuss diplomatic and economic issues, potentially indicating a desire to stabilize financial markets and address US debt concerns [8]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is a significant player in the global economic landscape, characterized by its large economic scale, diverse industrial structure, strong technological capabilities, and active financial markets [1] - Despite its strengths, the U.S. economy faces deep-rooted challenges and uncertainties while also presenting new development opportunities and potential for reshaping [1] Group 2: Technology as a Driving Force - Technology is the core driving force behind the U.S. economy's leading position, with Silicon Valley being a hub for top tech talent and innovation [2] - Major tech companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft are making breakthroughs in fields such as information technology, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and renewable energy, injecting continuous vitality into the U.S. economy [2][4] Group 3: Consumer Spending - Consumer spending plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy, accounting for approximately 70% of the GDP [5][7] - The large middle-class population in the U.S. drives demand across various sectors, from everyday goods to luxury items, influencing economic growth [5][7] Group 4: Financial Market Dominance - The U.S. has the most developed financial markets globally, with the dollar serving as the dominant international reserve currency, granting the U.S. significant influence in global economic matters [8][10] - While financial dominance provides strong financing capabilities, it also leads to risks such as economic hollowing and potential financial crises due to over-reliance on financial mechanisms [10] Group 5: Trade Tensions - Recent trade tensions have emerged as a significant challenge for the U.S. economy, with the government implementing protectionist measures and tariffs that have strained global trade relations [11][13] - Increased tariffs raise import costs for U.S. companies, impacting their competitiveness and leading to higher consumer prices, which in turn affects living costs [13] Group 6: Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is actively seeking transformation and adaptation in response to challenges, with a focus on advancing research in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and renewable energy [14][16] - Efforts are being made to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through policy support and tax incentives, while also enhancing financial regulation and exploring digital currency development [16]