Group 1 - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to three main factors: declining raw material prices, supply-side adjustments, and resilient demand from manufacturing [3][5][9] - The West Simandou iron ore project is set to commence production in November 2025, significantly increasing iron ore supply and contributing to a downward trend in iron ore prices [3][71] - Government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting energy efficiency are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a more optimized supply structure in the steel industry [3][16][10] Group 2 - Demand for steel is projected to stabilize in the construction sector, while manufacturing demand remains resilient, particularly for flat steel and special steel products [3][19][25] - The overall steel demand in China is forecasted to decline slightly, with total demand expected to be 9.05 billion tons in 2025, a decrease of 0.11% from 2024 [19][20] - The construction sector's share of steel demand is decreasing, while the manufacturing sector's share is increasing, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [3][19] Group 3 - The report highlights that the profitability of steel companies is recovering, with a stronger performance expected in flat steel compared to long steel products [3][85][82] - The average profit margin for steel companies is projected to improve as cost pressures ease, with a focus on companies with stable demand and low valuations [3][87][90] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, which are expected to benefit from the shift towards manufacturing [3][95][94]

资产规模大、竞争力强、而盈利弱势的钢铁行业，是"反内卷"治理过剩产能的重点行业。 从供给侧的逻辑看，钢铁行业"反内卷"政策或延续"产能+产量控制"以解决总量供需结构矛盾。根 据华创证券，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》较2023年版本在对于控制供给总量要求方 面更为明确。为配合实现供给收缩、落后产能退出的目标实现，进一步明确了未来要在碳管理、企业间 分类评级等方面提供政策支持，为未来政策推行提供了有效抓手。同时或将对行业违规项目进行查处， 进一步减少市场实际的供给总量。2025年9月，第三轮第四批中央生态环境保护督察组反馈督查情况， 其中"未经审批和产能置换新增炼钢产能"、"批小建大"、"违规建设钢铁项目"、"地条钢"等违规问题依 然出现，后续仍可关注相关情况进展。 从成本与盈利的逻辑看，上半年钢铁企业已享受到部分原料价格下行的红利，企业利润率及稳定性 处于近几年同期的较高水平。展望看，未来铁矿有望逐步让利钢铁行业。随着西芒杜铁矿投产，铁矿石 供给宽松的确定性较强。虽然钢价中枢可能随成本下降而下移，但若叠加钢铁减产、钢铁自身供需格局 改善，预计铁矿环节利润有望向钢铁及钢铁下游行业转移。根据长 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，自2021年下半年地产开工数据转为负增长后，国内钢材需求 快速下降。但供给端并未及时匹配需求端的变化，导致钢材市场供给过剩。本轮过剩周期核心矛盾在于 建筑用钢需求快速下降。展望 "十五五"，期间行业"反内卷"核心是在更为清晰的行业标准制度引领 下，优化存量供给结构(促进先进企业发展，有序退出落后产能)，同时或将对行业违规项目进行查处， 进一步减少市场实际的供给总量，进而实现行业有序竞争，供给合理匹配需求端的变化，行业景气度有 望在政策推进下逐步向上修复。 华创证券主要观点如下： "内卷"下的钢铁，总量与结构的失衡 自2021年下半年地产开工数据转为负增长后，国内钢材需求快速下降。但供给端并未及时匹配需求端的 变化，导致钢材市场供给过剩。回顾过去钢铁行业发展，行业共经历了两轮供需恶化阶段：2010-2016 年，需求整体仍处于增长，但供给增长过快，叠加需求增长降速，导致供需之间出现错配；2021年至 今，地产影响需求，国内需求持续下降，供给无法及时匹配需求端变化。 除了总量过剩外，行业面临结构上的恶化。本轮过剩周期核心矛盾在于建筑用钢需求快速下降，但制造 业用钢需求韧性较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently facing an imbalance in both total supply and structural demand, leading to oversupply and price declines. The demand for construction steel has rapidly decreased since the second half of 2021, while supply has not adjusted accordingly, resulting in a negative cycle of oversupply and price drops [2][14]. - A "de-involution" in the steel industry is deemed necessary to address the structural imbalance and enhance competition. The report suggests that past supply-side reforms have positively impacted the industry, and similar measures could benefit the current situation [2][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Imbalance in Total and Structural Supply - Since the second half of 2021, the demand for construction steel has declined sharply due to negative growth in new housing starts, while supply has not decreased proportionately, leading to a clear oversupply situation [14][22]. - The structural issue arises as the demand for construction steel weakens, while the manufacturing sector shows resilience, causing a shift in supply from construction to manufacturing steel, exacerbating the competition in the manufacturing sector [2][25]. - The result has been a long-term decline in steel prices, with the CISA steel price index dropping by 47.82% from its peak in 2021 [33]. 2. Necessity of "De-involution" in the Steel Industry - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure, with the PPI in a downward trend for 36 consecutive months, leading to a significant drop in industrial profits [42][51]. - The report highlights that the previous supply-side reforms during the "13th Five-Year Plan" and "14th Five-Year Plan" brought about positive changes, suggesting that a new round of "de-involution" could similarly benefit the industry [51][52]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that leading steel companies are likely to benefit in the long term from the "de-involution" policies, which are expected to optimize the supply structure and support advanced enterprises [8][28]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality leading companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, Shougang, Hebei Steel, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, as they are expected to experience profit growth and improved operational conditions [8][28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The steel market is facing a mix of long - and short - term factors. The mainstream short - position holdings have increased more, and the market is under short - term pressure. The operation strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bearish trend, with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,919,017 lots, up 39,567 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 93,441 lots, down 27,034 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 66 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,640 tons, down 1,200 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,354 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 191 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 0.50%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing is 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of October 31, 20 cities have introduced 26 real - estate market relaxation policies, and more cities may follow to improve and standardize construction design plans and calculation rules. The US Treasury Secretary said that the China - US trade agreement may be signed this week, and China is willing to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US relations [2].

Core Viewpoint - Lingyuan Steel Co., Ltd. reported a net loss of 266 million yuan in Q3 2025, although this represents an improvement compared to a net loss of 841 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a narrowing of losses due to increased revenue and reduced costs in the steel industry [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.38 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total operating revenue was 11.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.31% compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The net loss for the first three quarters of 2025 was 844 million yuan, which is an improvement from a net loss of 1.36 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1][2]. Industry Context - The steel industry has shown signs of recovery, with a reported total profit of 59.2 billion yuan for key steel enterprises in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.26% [1][3]. - The improvement in Lingyuan Steel's performance is attributed to a significant reduction in steel material costs, which outpaced the decline in prices [3]. Debt and Capital Expenditure - As of September 30, 2025, the company had total assets of 15.12 billion yuan and total liabilities of 10.36 billion yuan, indicating a slight decrease in total assets from the end of 2024 [3]. - The company is under pressure from ongoing capital expenditures, with significant investments in ongoing projects, including a total planned investment of 2.126 billion yuan for equipment upgrades [3][4]. - Lingyuan Steel has one outstanding bond, "Ling Steel Convertible Bond," with a balance of 217 million yuan, rated AA and maturing in April 2026 [4].

Group 1: Steel Consumption Performance - Overall steel consumption has been poor, with rebar consumption down 4.5% year-on-year and wire rod down 7.8% [1] - Despite the decline in construction steel consumption, plate consumption has increased, supporting high furnace iron output [2] - The average daily transaction volume of building materials in September is only slightly up by 1% compared to previous years, indicating weaker demand during the peak season [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - Steel mills are facing significant profit pressure due to falling steel prices and rising raw material costs, with rebar profits nearing a loss state [1][4] - High furnace iron output remains elevated at 237.2 million tons per day, despite poor steel consumption, due to strong plate demand [2] - Steel mills may need to reduce production to restore profitability, but this is contingent on various factors, including potential government policies [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of unclear trends, with both upward and downward pressures on steel prices [7] - The potential for government policies to stimulate consumption or enforce production cuts could significantly impact the steel market [6][7] - The steel industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement aimed at improving product quality and managing competition [7]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is accelerating its "anti-involution" efforts, with a focus on capacity reduction and optimization, as outlined in the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by multiple government departments [1][2] Group 1: Industry Goals and Measures - The main goal of the plan is to achieve an average annual growth of about 4% in the steel industry's added value from 2025 to 2026 while prohibiting new capacity and implementing production cuts [1][2] - The plan emphasizes enhancing supply-demand adaptability through five key measures: strengthening industry management, promoting technological innovation, expanding effective investment, increasing market demand, and deepening open cooperation [2][3] Group 2: Current Industry Challenges - The steel industry is facing significant downward pressure due to a prolonged demand decline influenced by the real estate and infrastructure sectors, leading to an oversupply of crude steel [2][4] - The net asset return rate for the ordinary steel sector was only 0.93% in the first half of 2025, marking a historical low since 2010 [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - The steel sector's revenue decreased by approximately 10% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with many companies reporting losses [5] - The average price-to-book ratio (PB) for the ordinary steel sector is currently at 0.74, significantly lower than peaks in 2017 and 2021, indicating a historical low valuation [5][6] - Following the announcement of the new plan, there has been a notable increase in stock prices for several steel companies, with some experiencing gains of over 5% [1][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the focus on capacity reduction and the shift towards high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent production methods may lead to a recovery in profitability and valuation for leading steel companies [3][4] - The market is expected to closely monitor the implementation of production cuts and the resulting effects on the industry [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term short - allocation strategy for iron ore [4][49] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore supply - demand pattern will gradually change with the commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore at the end of the year. The probability of the spot price exceeding $110 in the medium term is low, so it is recommended to short - allocate iron ore. Also, pay attention to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [4][49] - The commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore will increase the supply of iron ore. Mainstream and non - mainstream mines will expand production to seize market share. At the same time, iron ore demand at home and abroad is difficult to improve significantly [4][49] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Simandou Iron Ore Commissioning Process - It is planned to ship the first batch of iron ore from Simandou in November 2025, with a volume between 50 - 100 million tons, and export through the WCS port before the completion of the SimFer port. The SimFer mine and infrastructure are progressing well. The entire Simandou project's shipping volume in 2025 is expected to be between 250 - 300 million tons [9][10] 2. Impact of Simandou Iron Ore Commissioning on Mine Business Behavior - Before the commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore, the four major mines controlled the production rhythm. After its commissioning, they are likely to adjust their business strategies and expand production. Simandou Iron Ore's cost is similar to overseas non - mainstream mines but lower than domestic mines, which may cause the marginal cost curve of iron ore to shift downward and to the right [14][17][19] 3. Overseas Mine Supply Outlook 3.1 Mainstream Mine Supply Outlook - In 2025, the mainstream mine increment is 14.02 million tons, and after 2026, the increment may exceed 35 million tons. Each major mine has expansion plans, such as Rio Tinto's Western Range project, BHP's production target increase in some mines, and VALE's new project commissioning [20][21][25] 3.2 Non - mainstream Mine Supply Outlook - In addition to Simandou Iron Ore, other non - mainstream mines are also being commissioned. For example, Australia's Onslow Iron Ore may increase production in 2026, and Brazil's CSN plans to expand the Casa de Pedra mine and increase the capacity of the P15 new mining area [26][27] 4. Iron Ore Demand Hard to Increase Significantly 4.1 Domestic Iron Ore Demand Analysis - In the short term, domestic iron ore demand is relatively strong, but there is production - limiting pressure in the fourth quarter, and the focus may be on hot metal. In the medium - to - long term, steel consumption, especially real - estate steel consumption, is difficult to improve significantly, and iron ore demand is likely to continue to decline [31][34] 4.2 Overseas Iron Ore Demand Analysis - From January to July 2025, the pig iron output in other regions except China decreased year - on - year. In the next 2 - 3 years, the new steel - making capacity overseas is mainly electric - arc furnaces, accompanied by green transformation and technological upgrading, so iron ore demand is also difficult to improve significantly [39] 5. Iron Ore Investment Opportunities Analysis in Different Cycles - In the fourth quarter, there is a risk of negative feedback in the black - industry chain, and iron ore may make up for the decline after late October. In the medium term, iron ore may be weaker than other industrial products due to the expansion cycle, and attention can be paid to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [41][47][49] 6. Summary - The commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore is unlikely to be affected by building a smelter locally. The shipping volume in 2025 is expected to be between 250 - 300 million tons, and supply is expected to recover further after 2026. The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines will expand. Domestic and overseas iron ore demand is difficult to improve significantly. The supply - demand pattern will change, and it is recommended to short - allocate iron ore in the medium term and pay attention to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [46][49]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to see supply-demand improvement in the second half of 2025, driven by production regulation and a recovering inventory cycle, amidst a backdrop of anti-involution [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Cycle and Valuation - The steel sector has been gradually recovering from historical lows since Q3 2024, with current profitability at 50% of the complete cycle since 2015 and a low P/B valuation of 1.09X, indicating significant room for improvement [2]. - The industry is currently at the left side of a major cycle bottom reversal, with the bottom becoming increasingly clear, suggesting a potential upward resonance in the industry cycle [3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform - The path for the current supply-side reform in the steel industry is becoming clearer, focusing on differentiated production control based on efficiency and environmental standards, accelerating the elimination of outdated capacities, and promoting industry consolidation to improve competition [4]. - The central government's increasing emphasis on anti-involution is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms, leading to improved industry profitability and return on equity (ROE) [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on the upward resonance of multiple cycles in the steel industry in the second half of 2025, with core assets currently undervalued and expected to undergo valuation recovery as the profitability cycle bottoms out [5]. - Two main investment lines are suggested: long-term focus on high-quality core assets like Huazhong Steel (000932.SZ), and short-term focus on efficient rebar companies with a higher proportion of rebar production [5].