Group 1: Steel Consumption Performance - Overall steel consumption has been poor, with rebar consumption down 4.5% year-on-year and wire rod down 7.8% [1] - Despite the decline in construction steel consumption, plate consumption has increased, supporting high furnace iron output [2] - The average daily transaction volume of building materials in September is only slightly up by 1% compared to previous years, indicating weaker demand during the peak season [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - Steel mills are facing significant profit pressure due to falling steel prices and rising raw material costs, with rebar profits nearing a loss state [1][4] - High furnace iron output remains elevated at 237.2 million tons per day, despite poor steel consumption, due to strong plate demand [2] - Steel mills may need to reduce production to restore profitability, but this is contingent on various factors, including potential government policies [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of unclear trends, with both upward and downward pressures on steel prices [7] - The potential for government policies to stimulate consumption or enforce production cuts could significantly impact the steel market [6][7] - The steel industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement aimed at improving product quality and managing competition [7]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is accelerating its "anti-involution" efforts, with a focus on capacity reduction and optimization, as outlined in the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by multiple government departments [1][2] Group 1: Industry Goals and Measures - The main goal of the plan is to achieve an average annual growth of about 4% in the steel industry's added value from 2025 to 2026 while prohibiting new capacity and implementing production cuts [1][2] - The plan emphasizes enhancing supply-demand adaptability through five key measures: strengthening industry management, promoting technological innovation, expanding effective investment, increasing market demand, and deepening open cooperation [2][3] Group 2: Current Industry Challenges - The steel industry is facing significant downward pressure due to a prolonged demand decline influenced by the real estate and infrastructure sectors, leading to an oversupply of crude steel [2][4] - The net asset return rate for the ordinary steel sector was only 0.93% in the first half of 2025, marking a historical low since 2010 [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - The steel sector's revenue decreased by approximately 10% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with many companies reporting losses [5] - The average price-to-book ratio (PB) for the ordinary steel sector is currently at 0.74, significantly lower than peaks in 2017 and 2021, indicating a historical low valuation [5][6] - Following the announcement of the new plan, there has been a notable increase in stock prices for several steel companies, with some experiencing gains of over 5% [1][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the focus on capacity reduction and the shift towards high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent production methods may lead to a recovery in profitability and valuation for leading steel companies [3][4] - The market is expected to closely monitor the implementation of production cuts and the resulting effects on the industry [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term short - allocation strategy for iron ore [4][49] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore supply - demand pattern will gradually change with the commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore at the end of the year. The probability of the spot price exceeding $110 in the medium term is low, so it is recommended to short - allocate iron ore. Also, pay attention to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [4][49] - The commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore will increase the supply of iron ore. Mainstream and non - mainstream mines will expand production to seize market share. At the same time, iron ore demand at home and abroad is difficult to improve significantly [4][49] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Simandou Iron Ore Commissioning Process - It is planned to ship the first batch of iron ore from Simandou in November 2025, with a volume between 50 - 100 million tons, and export through the WCS port before the completion of the SimFer port. The SimFer mine and infrastructure are progressing well. The entire Simandou project's shipping volume in 2025 is expected to be between 250 - 300 million tons [9][10] 2. Impact of Simandou Iron Ore Commissioning on Mine Business Behavior - Before the commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore, the four major mines controlled the production rhythm. After its commissioning, they are likely to adjust their business strategies and expand production. Simandou Iron Ore's cost is similar to overseas non - mainstream mines but lower than domestic mines, which may cause the marginal cost curve of iron ore to shift downward and to the right [14][17][19] 3. Overseas Mine Supply Outlook 3.1 Mainstream Mine Supply Outlook - In 2025, the mainstream mine increment is 14.02 million tons, and after 2026, the increment may exceed 35 million tons. Each major mine has expansion plans, such as Rio Tinto's Western Range project, BHP's production target increase in some mines, and VALE's new project commissioning [20][21][25] 3.2 Non - mainstream Mine Supply Outlook - In addition to Simandou Iron Ore, other non - mainstream mines are also being commissioned. For example, Australia's Onslow Iron Ore may increase production in 2026, and Brazil's CSN plans to expand the Casa de Pedra mine and increase the capacity of the P15 new mining area [26][27] 4. Iron Ore Demand Hard to Increase Significantly 4.1 Domestic Iron Ore Demand Analysis - In the short term, domestic iron ore demand is relatively strong, but there is production - limiting pressure in the fourth quarter, and the focus may be on hot metal. In the medium - to - long term, steel consumption, especially real - estate steel consumption, is difficult to improve significantly, and iron ore demand is likely to continue to decline [31][34] 4.2 Overseas Iron Ore Demand Analysis - From January to July 2025, the pig iron output in other regions except China decreased year - on - year. In the next 2 - 3 years, the new steel - making capacity overseas is mainly electric - arc furnaces, accompanied by green transformation and technological upgrading, so iron ore demand is also difficult to improve significantly [39] 5. Iron Ore Investment Opportunities Analysis in Different Cycles - In the fourth quarter, there is a risk of negative feedback in the black - industry chain, and iron ore may make up for the decline after late October. In the medium term, iron ore may be weaker than other industrial products due to the expansion cycle, and attention can be paid to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [41][47][49] 6. Summary - The commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore is unlikely to be affected by building a smelter locally. The shipping volume in 2025 is expected to be between 250 - 300 million tons, and supply is expected to recover further after 2026. The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines will expand. Domestic and overseas iron ore demand is difficult to improve significantly. The supply - demand pattern will change, and it is recommended to short - allocate iron ore in the medium term and pay attention to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [46][49]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to see supply-demand improvement in the second half of 2025, driven by production regulation and a recovering inventory cycle, amidst a backdrop of anti-involution [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Cycle and Valuation - The steel sector has been gradually recovering from historical lows since Q3 2024, with current profitability at 50% of the complete cycle since 2015 and a low P/B valuation of 1.09X, indicating significant room for improvement [2]. - The industry is currently at the left side of a major cycle bottom reversal, with the bottom becoming increasingly clear, suggesting a potential upward resonance in the industry cycle [3]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reform - The path for the current supply-side reform in the steel industry is becoming clearer, focusing on differentiated production control based on efficiency and environmental standards, accelerating the elimination of outdated capacities, and promoting industry consolidation to improve competition [4]. - The central government's increasing emphasis on anti-involution is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms, leading to improved industry profitability and return on equity (ROE) [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on the upward resonance of multiple cycles in the steel industry in the second half of 2025, with core assets currently undervalued and expected to undergo valuation recovery as the profitability cycle bottoms out [5]. - Two main investment lines are suggested: long-term focus on high-quality core assets like Huazhong Steel (000932.SZ), and short-term focus on efficient rebar companies with a higher proportion of rebar production [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 63.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.31% [6] - The decline in raw material costs has led to a recovery in gross profit per ton of steel, with a gross profit margin of approximately 9.9% in the first half of 2025, up from 6.8% in the previous year [6] - The company has continued to innovate, with 233 new patent authorizations in the first half of 2025, contributing to an increase in the sales proportion of high-end products [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 141.486 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 2.740 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.8% [2] - Earnings per share are expected to increase from 0.25 yuan in 2025H1 to 0.40 yuan in 2025E [2] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 3.2% in 2025H1 to 4.9% in 2025E [2] Market Data - As of August 26, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 5.73 yuan, with a market capitalization of 39.586 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 0.7 and a dividend yield of 1.75% [3] Investment Analysis - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.740 billion, 3.556 billion, and 3.957 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook due to ongoing industry improvements and product structure optimization [6]

Group 1 - The steel industry is benefiting from favorable policies such as the elimination of outdated production capacity and regulation of low-price dumping [1] - Anticipation of environmental production restrictions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region due to the upcoming military parade may lead to significant supply contraction, similar to experiences in 2015 [1] - High-end steel products are expected to benefit from the energy cycle and substitution trends, while the ordinary steel sector shows potential for recovery due to favorable policies and reasonable profitability [1] Group 2 - Investors are encouraged to consider the only steel industry ETF (515210) for exposure to steel plate, special steel, and metal products [1] - For those without stock accounts, a linked fund (008190) is available to capture investment opportunities in the steel sector [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.89%, underperforming the broader market, which rose by 4.18% [10] - The average daily pig iron production reached 2.4075 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.09 thousand tons and a year-on-year increase of 119.8 thousand tons [25] - The five major steel product consumption increased to 8.53 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 21.97 thousand tons, or 2.64% [30] - Social inventory of the five major steel products rose to 10.172 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 26.37 thousand tons, or 2.66% [43] - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel decreased to 3,525.7 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decline of 40.71 yuan/ton, or 1.14% [49] - The report suggests that the steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance was weaker than the overall market, with specific segments like special steel declining by 0.38% and long products increasing by 0.53% [10][12] 2. Core Data - Pig iron production increased to 7.661 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 5.92 thousand tons [24] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.3%, up by 0.03 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4075 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.98 thousand tons [25] 3. Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 10.172 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 26.37 thousand tons [43] - Factory inventory decreased to 4.238 million tons, a week-on-week decline of 1.30 thousand tons [41] 4. Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,525.7 yuan/ton, down 1.14% week-on-week [49] - The profit for rebar production was 67 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 54 yuan/ton week-on-week [58] - The average cost of pig iron was 2,364 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan/ton [58] 5. Raw Materials - The price of Australian iron ore at Rizhao Port was 770 yuan/ton, down 0.52% week-on-week [72] - The price of coking coal remained stable at 1,630 yuan/ton [72] - The price of first-grade metallurgical coke increased to 1,825 yuan/ton, up by 55 yuan/ton week-on-week [72]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 17.88, up from the previous value of RMB 17.42 [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong resilience in its development, with a slight year-over-year revenue decline of 4.02% to RMB 54.715 billion in H1 2025, while net profit increased by 2.67% to RMB 2.798 billion [1][2]. - The company is focusing on strategic sectors such as wind power, oil and gas, hydrogen energy, pumped storage, and new energy vehicles, which are expected to drive demand for its products [2]. - The steel industry is entering a phase where the urgency and strategic nature of anti-involution policies are being debated, with potential production cuts that could enhance profitability if implemented [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 27.875 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 2.45% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.86%. Net profit for the same period was RMB 1.414 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.58% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 14.89%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the special steel sector, with a strong focus on optimizing its product structure and enhancing quality and efficiency [2]. - The sales distribution of products across various sectors includes 35% in energy, 25% in automotive, 20% in machinery, and 10% in bearings [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be RMB 1.14, RMB 1.28, and RMB 1.49 respectively [4][10]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability driven by potential production cuts in the steel industry, contingent on government policy implementation [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance continues to be under pressure, but there is optimism for a recovery in the main business and an increase in wet-process business volume in the second half of the year [1][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.794 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 69 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.26% [1] - The report forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 300 million, 420 million, and 570 million yuan respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company’s comprehensive gross margin was 17.22%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s revenue from functional, shaped, unshaped refractory materials, and other businesses for the first half of 2025 was 627 million, 1.072 billion, 544 million, and 551 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.25%, 2.93%, 1.90%, and 10.85% [2] - The company reported a credit impairment loss of 52 million yuan, which was an increase of 37 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the bankruptcy of certain clients in Eastern Europe [3] Business Outlook - The report indicates an expected reversal in the main business as the steel industry’s internal competition policies deepen, which may improve profitability for steel clients [4] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with a partner, expecting to supply 500,000 tons of sedimentation agents by the end of 2028, which supports future business volume growth [4]

Group 1 - Steel stocks experienced a broad decline today, with Angang Steel (00347) down 6.01% to HKD 2.19, Maanshan Steel (00323) down 3.95% to HKD 2.43, and Chongqing Steel (01053) down 3.4% to HKD 1.42 [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates that the steel industry's prosperity will improve from Q3 2024 to the first half of 2025 through voluntary production cuts, reducing the urgency for short-term anti-involution measures [1] - Future policies will likely depend on the government's strategic positioning regarding the steel industry's anti-involution approach [1] Group 2 - The increase in the steel sector from January to July 2025 is primarily driven by expectations surrounding anti-involution policies, which have not yet entered the execution phase [1] - Expectations of anti-involution have led to significant increases in coking coal and iron ore prices, further eroding steel profits and potentially forcing steel mills to implement anti-involution measures [1]