钴专家交流 20251008 摘要 钴原料价格从去年底 5.4 美元/磅涨至 15.5-16 美元/磅，涨幅近三倍， 带动硫酸钴和金属钴价格大幅上涨。成本预期是主要驱动因素，禁运措 施若不采取，全产业链将低位运行。 中国钴行业自 2025 年 6 月起加速消化库存，预计年底仍将持续。若按 每月 8,000-9,000 吨的速度消耗，未来钴产业链仍需处理约 4 万吨库存。 当前供应短缺下，配额制度难以导致价格明显下滑，或将持续上涨。 以上。而即使每年 9 万多吨的配额完全给中国，加上印尼 4 万吨和回收 2 万吨， 也无法满足这一需求。因此，中国钴产业链已进入供应紧缺状态。 刚果政府在实施钴出口配额制度时有哪些具体政策和细节？ 刚果政府可能会收取一些费用，包括监管费用和预付费用。此外，33 个含钴开 采项目中的 27 家公司需要获得出口许可证才能拿到配额。若市场出现失衡， 刚果政府将按季度调整配额。这意味着如果供应短缺严重，可以增加季度配额； 反之，如果价格暴跌且供应过剩，则可能减少季度配额。然而，由于走私或其 他渠道运输货物的可能性较小，因此第一种情况更为可能。 中国企业如何应对刚果金新的政策变化？ 刚果金实 ...

民生证券近期研报指出，国内原料短缺加剧，长期来看，刚果金政府挺价态度坚决，未来大概率实行配 额制，供给收缩或为大概率事件，钴价中枢上移明确。公司湿法镍产能位于印尼，销量不受刚果金出口 限制影响，完全受益于钴价上涨。叠加新增产能释放及成本优势，公司成长性显著。 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 27.38 2.38 9.52% 10.16% 6.76% 3.40% 0.00% 3.40% 6.76% 10.16% 22.46 23.31 24.15 25.00 25.85 26.69 27.54 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 6万 12万 18万 力勤资源(02245)涨超5%，高见26.46港元再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨5.2%，报26.3港元，成交额 9599.46万港元。 力勤资源 消息面上，行业媒体报道，9月29日，国内钴市迎来爆发式上涨，长江现货1#钴均价报337000元/吨，较 前一交易日大幅攀升29000元，创下今年来最大单日涨幅。华创证券认为，刚果金政府禁令+配额政策 加剧钴原料紧缺氛围，钴价或加速上行。从2025年内配额1.8万吨，考虑刚果金运输需要 ...

2025年金属圈最火的段子，非"年初囤了钴，年底换路虎"莫属。这话放在年初，大概率会被当成玩笑 ——那会儿钴价还趴在15.9万元/吨的历史低点， 谁能想到， 短短一年时间，它能一路飙到27.25万元/ 吨，涨幅超60%？ 更疯狂的是9月29日那天，长江现货1 #钴均价单日暴涨2 .9万元，直接冲到33.7万 元/吨，创下今年最大单日涨幅，把同期震荡的A股远远甩在身后。 有人在这场暴涨里赚得盆满钵满。洛阳钼业上半年财报里，净利润86.71亿元，同比暴涨60.07%，公司 里甚至有员工调侃"提前备的货成了金疙瘩，这盈利空间比十年前囤茅台还狠"。但也有不少人看得一头 雾水：不就是一块金属吗？怎么突然就成了香饽饽？其实这场"钴市风暴"不是偶然，而是刚果金掐断供 应、AI与新能源抢着要货的必然结果，现在看懂还不算晚。 要聊钴价，绕不开刚果金——这个非洲国家握着全球钴市场的"命脉"，它一动，整个行业都得跟着抖。 今年2月22日，刚果金政府突然扔出一颗重磅炸弹：禁止钴出口4个月。消息刚出来，市场还没完全反应 过来，6月又宣布"禁令延长3个月"。现在眼看快到新的政策窗口，不少机构都在猜"会不会再延长"。别 觉得这只是一个国家 ...

智通财经APP获悉，力勤资源(02245)涨超5%，高见26.46港元再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨5.2%，报 26.3港元，成交额9599.46万港元。 消息面上，行业媒体报道，9月29日，国内钴市迎来爆发式上涨，长江现货1#钴均价报337000元/吨，较 前一交易日大幅攀升29000元，创下今年来最大单日涨幅。华创证券认为，刚果金政府禁令+配额政策 加剧钴原料紧缺氛围，钴价或加速上行。从2025年内配额1.8万吨，考虑刚果金运输需要时间，年内原 料面临空窗期，叠加旺季来临需求去库+冶炼厂补库，原料短缺加剧，钴价上涨确定性强。 民生证券近期研报指出，国内原料短缺加剧，长期来看，刚果金政府挺价态度坚决，未来大概率实行配 额制，供给收缩或为大概率事件，钴价中枢上移明确。公司湿法镍产能位于印尼，销量不受刚果金出口 限制影响，完全受益于钴价上涨。叠加新增产能释放及成本优势，公司成长性显著。 ...

消息面上，刚果(金)政府于9月20日更新钴出口政策，2025年刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期至10月15日， 2026-2027年钴出口配额仅为年产量的44%。华创证券认为，刚果金政府禁令+配额政策加剧钴原料紧缺 氛围，钴价或加速上行。民生证券指出，刚果金政府对钴价挺价态度坚决，未来大概率实行配额制，供 给收缩大势所趋，钴价中枢上移明确。公司湿法镍产能位于印尼，销量不受刚果金出口限制影响，完全 受益于钴价上涨。 力勤资源 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 25.00 2.54 11.31% 13.98% 9.31% 4.67% 0.00% 4.67% 9.31% 13.98% 19.32 20.37 21.41 22.46 23.51 24.55 25.60 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 27万 54万 81万 力勤资源(02245)涨超13%，高见25.6港元创历史新高，近一个月股价累涨八成。截至发稿，涨13.45%， 报25.48港元，成交额2.01亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，力勤资源(02245)涨超13%，高见25.6港元创历史新高，近一个月股价累涨八成。截 至发稿，涨13.45%，报25.48港元，成交额2.01亿港元。 消息面上，刚果(金)政府于9月20日更新钴出口政策，2025年刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期至10月15日， 2026-2027年钴出口配额仅为年产量的44%。华创证券认为，刚果金政府禁令+配额政策加剧钴原料紧缺 氛围，钴价或加速上行。民生证券指出，刚果金政府对钴价挺价态度坚决，未来大概率实行配额制，供 给收缩大势所趋，钴价中枢上移明确。公司湿法镍产能位于印尼，销量不受刚果金出口限制影响，完全 受益于钴价上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising cobalt prices driven by government intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is expected to benefit the DRC government and impact the global electric vehicle (EV) market significantly. Group 1: Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt prices have experienced two significant cycles of volatility since 2016 due to supply-demand mismatches [2] - From May 2022 to early 2025, cobalt prices entered a downward phase due to slowing demand for EVs and increased competition from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries [4] - The DRC government has intervened in the cobalt market since 2025, controlling supply to create an upward price cycle [5][6] Group 2: Government Intervention - The DRC, as the largest cobalt supplier, accounted for over 75% of global cobalt supply in 2024, with reserves of 6 million tons [6] - The DRC government imposed temporary export bans on cobalt in 2025, leading to a price rebound of over 100% from its lowest point [7] - The DRC has extended the export ban and introduced a quota system, limiting exports to 9.66 million tons in 2026 and 2027, significantly below its production capacity [8] Group 3: Price Projections - Analysts predict that cobalt prices could reach between 400,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton due to the supply constraints imposed by the DRC government [8] - The global demand for cobalt is expected to grow, with projected requirements of 248,000 tons in 2025 and 329,000 tons in 2027, indicating a widening supply-demand gap [8] Group 4: Impact on Battery Technology - The rising cobalt prices are likely to negatively impact the nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery route while benefiting LFP battery manufacturers [18] - The cost increase in cobalt could lead to a rise of over 10,000 yuan in battery costs for each EV, affecting automaker profit margins and consumer choices [18] - Companies are exploring alternative battery technologies to reduce cobalt dependency, such as high-nickel low-cobalt batteries [19][20] Group 5: Recycling and Market Opportunities - Cobalt recycling companies are expected to benefit from rising prices, with companies like Greeenme's cobalt recycling business showing improved profitability [21] - The current cobalt price crisis serves as a catalyst for industry upgrades and a lesson for the Chinese EV sector [22] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The DRC government's intervention in the cobalt market suggests a sustained upward price trend, making cobalt price tracking crucial for investors [23] - Historical performance of cobalt producers like Huayou Cobalt during previous price cycles may provide insights for current investment strategies [23]

民生证券认为，刚果金政府对钴价挺价态度坚决，未来大概率实行配额制，供给收缩大势所趋，钴价中 枢上移明确。公司湿法镍产能位于印尼，销量不受刚果金出口限制影响，完全受益于钴价上涨。 消息面上，刚果(金)政府于9月20日更新钴出口政策，2025年刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期至10月15日， 2026-2027年钴出口配额仅为年产量的44%。中信证券表示，预计出口配额将导致2025-2027年全球钴供 应量远低于正常水平，钴价有望强势上涨，预计布局印尼钴冶炼的公司以及在刚果(金)拥有矿山的公司 将充分受益于钴价上涨。 力勤资源(02245)再涨超4%，本周累计涨幅约35%。截至发稿，涨3.31%，报20.58港元，成交额1.26亿港 元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，力勤资源(02245)再涨超4%，本周累计涨幅约35%。截至发稿，涨3.31%，报20.58港 元，成交额1.26亿港元。 消息面上，刚果(金)政府于9月20日更新钴出口政策，2025年刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期至10月15日， 2026-2027年钴出口配额仅为年产量的44%。中信证券表示，预计出口配额将导致2025-2027年全球钴供 应量远低于正常水平，钴价有望强势上涨，预计布局印尼钴冶炼的公司以及在刚果(金)拥有矿山的公司 将充分受益于钴价上涨。 民生证券认为，刚果金政府对钴价挺价态度坚决，未来大概率实行配额制，供给收缩大势所趋，钴价中 枢上移明确。公司湿法镍产能位于印尼，销量不受刚果金出口限制影响，完全受益于钴价上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The rare metal ETF fund has seen a turnover rate of 6.78% with a transaction volume of 11.3956 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month is 19.6415 million yuan as of September 25 [3] - The net value of the rare metal ETF fund has increased by 78.35% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 24.02% and the longest consecutive monthly increase lasting 4 months with a total increase of 57.92% [3] - Supply constraints have led to a significant rise in cobalt prices, with the Democratic Republic of Congo extending its cobalt export ban until October 15, resulting in a nearly 40% increase in cobalt prices this year [3] Group 2 - Bohai Securities indicates that the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has caused a significant decline in domestic cobalt raw material imports, with electrolytic cobalt prices recovering to 275,000 yuan per ton from earlier lows [4] - The industry is currently in a destocking phase, and the cobalt supply is expected to remain constrained through 2026-2027, despite steady demand growth in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 57.58%, with notable companies including Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Group 3 - The rare metal ETF fund serves as a good investment tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals industry [6] - The performance of individual stocks within the rare metals sector varies, with notable increases in stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium, while Ganfeng Lithium has seen a slight decline [6]