Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 H1 financial results, showing revenue of 17.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.625 billion yuan, up 19.95% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's H1 2025 revenue reached 17.274 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.25% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 2.625 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.95% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.611 billion yuan, marking a 21.04% increase year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Domestic alumina prices experienced a phase of adjustment, with an average price of approximately 3,495 yuan per ton in H1 2025, up about 3% from the same period last year [1]. - The overseas alumina market faced downward pressure due to new production capacity coming online, leading to a supply surplus and a significant price drop [2]. - The average price of overseas alumina in H1 2025 was around 436 USD per ton, which is an 8% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Aluminum Price Trends - The average price of primary aluminum in H1 2025 was approximately 20,288 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - Aluminum prices showed volatility due to various factors, including changes in global trade policies and downstream demand recovery [2][3]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.36, 0.40, and 0.45 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [3].

Core Viewpoints - The aluminum futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 20,730.00 yuan and closing at 20,645.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.22% increase [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - Dongwu Futures predicts that aluminum prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term due to high supply levels and a noticeable recovery in downstream initial operations, with various sectors seeing varying degrees of order recovery [1] - Zhongjin Wealth Futures anticipates that aluminum prices will likely remain in a range-bound fluctuation pattern, influenced by the U.S. government's recent imposition of a 50% tariff on numerous aluminum derivative products, which is expected to suppress China's aluminum product exports, particularly to the U.S. [1] - Donghai Futures indicates that while there is limited medium-term upside for aluminum prices, short-term fluctuations are expected, with a significant decrease in aluminum inventory by 11,000 tons, marking a substantial decline [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent increase in aluminum inventory in the LME market has stabilized, rising approximately 140,000 tons since late June, suggesting a potential weakening of the rebound foundation for prices [2] - The current spot market is in a state of discount, with downstream enterprises primarily engaging in essential procurement, indicating that high aluminum prices are somewhat suppressing restocking intentions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum price is experiencing sustained high-level fluctuations, with the average daily price of A00 aluminum at 20,700 yuan/ton as of August 15, remaining stable month-on-month and increasing by 8.89% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Macro Factors - The extension of the tariff suspension period between China and the U.S. for another 90 days has reduced risk aversion sentiment [1] - Weak U.S. employment data suggests an increased probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a more positive market sentiment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is under pressure from seasonal demand, but inventory levels remain low year-on-year [1] - Supply-side fluctuations are limited, while demand-side seasonal pressures persist, with terminal orders being average and maintaining just-in-time procurement [1] - Social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Future attention should be paid to potential adjustments in U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and their impact on market sentiment [1] - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions is crucial, as the market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation in the short term [1] - As demand gradually recovers from the seasonal downturn in September, there is an expectation of a stronger market driven by consumption and inventory reduction [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend [5][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend, ranging from around 20,405 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,825 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures oscillated, with the contract price ranging from 2,551 - 2,639 US dollars/ton [13] 3.2现货分析 - As of August 8, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,600 yuan/ton, 20,880 yuan/ton, 20,640 yuan/ton, and 20,590 yuan/ton respectively [16] - As of August 8, 2025, the premium/discount of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a discount of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3.3供需情况 - In July 2025, the total production capacity of alumina was 113 million tons, the in - production capacity was 94.65 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.75% [22] - As of August 7, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 31,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 tons, in Bayuquan was 16,000 tons, and in Qingdao Port was 15,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22] 3.4库存情况 - As of August 8, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 113,614 tons, a decrease of 3,913 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 470,575 tons, an increase of 1,075 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 3.03% [27] - As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 506,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous day [27] 3.5宏观面、基本面分析 - In July, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%. The production index and new order index in the manufacturing PMI were 50.5% and 49.4% respectively, both lower than the previous month. Manufacturing production activities continued to expand, but market demand slowed down. Industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and computer and communication electronic equipment had active production and demand [4][36] - The operating rate of alumina plants continued to rise, the in - production capacity of alumina gradually increased, and the alumina inventory remained at a low level. The output of aluminum products increased year - on - year, and the output of aluminum alloy increased rapidly for several consecutive months. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased slightly, the LME aluminum inventory continued to rise, and the domestic implicit market inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly [4][36]

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] Core View - The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season, but there are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory shows signs of peaking. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season. The long - term supply is limited while consumption grows steadily. Alumina has a north - south difference in the spot market, with the south strong and the north weak. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating. Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and its price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,580 yuan/ton, and the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, also with a change of 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract on August 7, 2025, was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,725 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 564,000 tons, with no change from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, an increase of 1,575 tons [2] Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,315 yuan/ton, and in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 375 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main alumina contract on August 7, 2025, was 3,254 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,291 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,191 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - Profit - **Price**: On August 7, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,700 yuan/ton, also with a change of 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4] - **Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,065 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 165 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season. There are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods may have peaked. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season [6] - **Alumina**: The spot market shows a pattern of strong south and weak north. The warehouse receipt risk is basically released. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is rated neutral, alumina is cautiously bearish, and aluminum alloy is neutral [10] - **Arbitrage**: Long the Shanghai aluminum calendar spread and long AD11 while short AL11 [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend [3][35] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 20,550 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,975 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures fluctuated, with the contract price ranging from around 2,629 - 2,664 US dollars/ton [11] b. Spot Analysis - As of July 25, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,830 yuan/ton, 21,090 yuan/ton, 20,835 yuan/ton, and 20,785 yuan/ton respectively [14] - As of July 25, 2025, the premium of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] c. Supply and Demand Situation - In June 2025, the supply of alumina exceeded demand by 50,000 tons, compared with an excess of 290,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [20] - As of July 24, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory at Lianyungang was 0 tons, at Bayuquan was 20,000 tons, and at Qingdao Port was 17,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [20] d. Inventory Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 115,790 tons, an increase of 6,968 tons from the previous week [25] - As of July 25, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 450,825 tons, an increase of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 3.35% [25] - As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 462,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 44,000 tons, in Wuxi was 125,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 166,000 tons, in Tianjin was 24,000 tons, in Shenyang was 2,000 tons, in Gongyi was 71,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 3,000 tons [25] e. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that there will be no intervention in any exchange rate, and attention will be paid to the path of trade negotiations. The benchmark scenario in June remains unchanged. The current inflation rate is 2%, and the European Central Bank is in a good position. Corporate profits continue to offset wage increases, and wage growth is moving in the right direction. The European Central Bank maintains the main refinancing rate at 2.15% [2][34] - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2][34] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (for public comment)", aiming to further clarify the criteria for identifying improper price behaviors, improve the criteria for identifying predatory pricing, regulate market price order, and address "involution - style" competition [2][34] - The operating rate of alumina plants has rebounded, corporate profits have continued to improve, and alumina inventory remains at a low level. The output of aluminum products has increased slightly, and the industry's operating rate has gradually improved. The de - stocking of Shanghai aluminum inventory has ended, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to rise, and the inventory level has reached 450,000 tons [2][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

Core View - The aluminum price is likely to show a fluctuating trend [4][40] Market Review Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures, AL2508, showed a slightly stronger fluctuating market, with prices ranging from around 20,240 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,660 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price showed a slightly stronger fluctuating trend, with contract prices ranging from 2,543 - 2,654 US dollars/ton [13] Spot Analysis - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,920 yuan/ton, 21,070 yuan/ton, 20,955 yuan/ton, and 20,905 yuan/ton respectively [16] - As of June 27, 2025, the premium of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] Supply and Demand Alumina Supply - Demand Gap - In May 2025, the alumina supply - demand gap was 310,000 tons, compared with a gap of 20,000 tons last month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [22] Bauxite Imports - As of May 2025, domestic bauxite imports were 17,514,458.2 tons, a decrease of 3,158,824.22 tons from the previous month. The domestic alumina inventory was 67,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period. The total domestic inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [25] Inventory Global Visible Inventory - As of June 27, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous trading day, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 3.58% [32] Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 424,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous day [32] Macro and Fundamental Analysis - In May, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.8%. On a month - on - month basis, it increased by 0.61% compared to the previous month. From January to May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment was 1,919.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment in May increased by 0.05% [38] - Bauxite imports decreased significantly month - on - month. The global alumina supply - demand remains tight. Alumina inventory continues to increase but is still at a low level. Shanghai aluminum inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the inventory level is at an extremely low level in recent years. LME aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the domestic invisible market inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline [38]

Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report - Date: May 27, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1][2][3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The main 2507 contract closed at 20,155, slightly down 0.05% from the previous trading day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,732 to 523,645 lots. Considering the approaching off-season and high smelting profits, the absolute price increase still restrains the end - users, so profits can be locked in at high prices [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Aluminum Price**: The main 2507 contract of aluminum slightly declined, and the index total open interest increased. Domestic social inventories continued to decline, and holders raised premiums. The LME was closed on the 26th, and there was no latest import profit - loss data [8]. - **Alumina Price**: Alumina prices dropped significantly by 3.77% to around 3060. The main reasons were the easing of disturbances at the Guinea ore end and the increasing expectation of partial capacity restart, which might push the operating capacity above 92 million tons in the next three weeks [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the supply side, there was little change due to the capacity ceiling. On the demand side, inventories decreased by 23,000 tons to 534,000 tons compared with last Thursday, supporting aluminum prices [8]. 2. Industry News - **Aluminum Plant Investment**: Emirates Global Aluminium plans to invest $4 billion in an aluminum plant in Oklahoma, USA, with an annual capacity of 600,000 tons of primary aluminum. Construction will start at the end of 2026 and be completed in 2030 [9]. - **Factory Closure**: Norsk Hydro will close its Birtley extrusion plant in the UK at the end of May, with an annual capacity of about 12,000 tons, affecting 100 employees [10]. - **Warehouse Expansion**: The London Metal Exchange (LME) has approved the addition of three warehousing facilities in Hong Kong, increasing the total to seven. The first four will start operating in July [10]. - **Mining Rights Policy in Guinea**: The transitional authorities in Guinea classified several mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including those for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1][6][43] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 20,010 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 20,300 yuan/ton [3][10] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated between 2,430 - 2,497 US dollars/ton [14] 2. Spot Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,410 yuan/ton, 20,585 yuan/ton, 20,435 yuan/ton, and 20,400 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium of electrolytic aluminum remained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [17] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In March 2025, the alumina supply - demand surplus was 30,000 tons, compared with a supply - demand gap of 110,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. In March 2025, the cumulative supply - demand surplus of electrolytic aluminum was 277,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23] - As of April 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 20,684,045.16 tons, an increase of 4,225,390.6 tons from the previous month [29] 4. Inventory Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 141,289 tons, a decrease of 14,791 tons from the previous week. As of May 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 386,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly to 15.99% [33] - As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 36,000 tons, in Wuxi was 150,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 228,000 tons, in Tianjin was 21,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 56,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 7,000 tons [33] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The US Supreme Court made a ruling on a personnel appointment and removal appeal case of a federal independent agency, hinting that the status of Federal Reserve board members is special and will be specially protected from being dismissed by the president. The US bond yield curve steepened significantly, with the 30 - year Treasury yield breaking through 5%. The Japanese government bond yield continued to rise, and the 40 - year Treasury yield reached a new high. The global alumina supply - demand continued to be in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum market also showed a supply - demand surplus. China's bauxite imports increased rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased rapidly and was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly [5][42] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [6][43]