盘前要闻 1、国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 11月24日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，中美关系总体稳定向好，双方要 保持住这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取更 多积极进展。 2、美联储12月降息预期升温！美股三大指数集体反弹，中概股指数涨近3% 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，央行今日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元 MLF操作，期限为1年期。东方金诚分析师王青预测，年终前后可能实施新一轮降准，接下来中期流动 性加量规模可能较此前每月6000亿的较高水平有所回落。 4、特朗普签署行政令，启动一项利用人工智能的全新国家计划"创世纪计划" 类型：市场 情绪影响：正面 隔夜美股三大指数集体反弹，纳指涨2.69%录得5月以来的最大单日涨幅。大型科技股集体走高，特斯 拉、谷歌涨超6%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.82%。美联储官员接连释放鸽派信号，市场预计美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率升至81%。 3、10000亿元！央行加量续作MLF，机构预测年终前后可能实施新 ...

据上证报，央行今日操作1万亿元MLF。业内专家表示，这是央行连续第9个月加量续作MLF。央行通 过多种货币政策工具维持流动性充裕，有利于引导金融机构加大信贷投放，有助于稳增长、稳预期。东 方金诚首席宏观分析师王青预计，央行会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF等货币政策工具，持续向市场 注入中期流动性。不排除年底前后实施新一轮降准的可能。考虑到外部环境波动、国内经济增长动能变 化等因素，我国或将出台新一轮稳增长政策，以稳定四季度及明年一季度的宏观经济运行态势。 ...

"着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行通过MLF和买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助 于保持资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这能助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力 度。值得注意的是，近期宏观经济出现下行波动，当前央行加量续作MLF，持续较大规模向银行体系 注入中期流动性，释放了数量型政策工具持续加力的信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场，有助于稳增 长、稳预期。"王青说。 【大河财立方 记者 秦龙】11月24日，央行宣布，将于11月25日开展10000亿元MLF操作。本月有9000亿 MLF到期，这意味着11月央行MLF净投放为1000亿，为连续第九个月加量续作，符合市场预期。考虑 到本月央行还开展了5000亿买断式逆回购净投放，这意味着11月中期流动性净投放总额达到6000亿，与 上月相同，连续四个月处于6000亿的年内较高水平。 实习编辑:金怡杉 | 审校:李金雨 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 对此，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向大河财立方表示，此次主要有三个原因：一是10月安排5000亿元 地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，这预示着年底前会加发5000亿元地方债， 1 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20251119 ◼ 我们预计 2026 年货币政策或延续支持性政策立场："数量"上通过不同 期限流动性工具搭配呵护市场，"降准"仍有 1-2 次的操作空间，国债买 卖操作将进一步常态化，并且成为"降准"的有效补充；"价格"上政策 利率或有 1-2 次"降息"空间，对应 10-20bps 调降幅度；在政策导向上 保持合理的利率比价关系，10 年期国债利率或在 1.70%-2.0%区间内波 动，30 年期利率或在 1.90%-2.30%区间内波动，合理期限溢价或是货币 政策和市场交易动态博弈的结果。 ◼ "利率水平"调节：收窄"利率走廊"、常态化国债买卖 在"利率比价"中寻锚 ——2026 年度展望:货币政策 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ◼ "利率比价"调节：保持合理的利率比价关系成为新的政策导向 2025 年 11 月 19 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile manner. The short - end has high allocation and trading value, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate is in a high - allocation - value range with the possibility of an unexpected decline at the end of the year. The long - end has some room for repair due to the previous expansion of the term spread. With the increasing expectation of easing, a more optimistic view on the subsequent bond market can be taken [2][9]. - To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, it is necessary to maintain the growth rates of social financing and money supply, and pay attention to the red - line level around 8%. If the growth rates fall below this level, it may trigger monetary easing [2][4][10]. - The current interest - rate comparison relationships concerned by the central bank are relatively reasonable, which is a prerequisite for further reducing policy rates. After the large - scale repurchase in November, the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low. The conditions for another reduction of policy rates are mature. For the bond market, the yield may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. A reduction in policy rates will bring an opportunity for the yield curve to shift downward, but the short - end has a more solid foundation for decline, while the long - end still faces strong cashing - out pressure [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Understand the Relatively Loose Social Financing Conditions? - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile way. The short - end has high value, and the long - end has repair space. With the increasing easing expectation, the subsequent bond market can be viewed more optimistically [2][9]. - **Social Financing and Money Growth Rates**: Credit growth decline is not a major concern, but a further decline in social financing and money growth rates needs attention. The 8% growth - rate range reflects economic growth and price - expectation targets, and a fall below it may trigger monetary easing. The social financing growth is affected by the government bond issuance rhythm, and non - bank deposits maintain high volatility [10]. - **Interest - Rate Relationships and Policy Implications**: The current interest - rate comparison relationships are relatively reasonable. To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, policy rates and related interest - rate levels can be further reduced to hedge economic pressure from a "cross - cycle" perspective [12]. - **Central Bank Operations**: After the large - scale repurchase in November (the combined scale of 3 - month and 6 - month repurchases reached 500 billion, and the stock scale rose to a new high of 6.3 trillion), the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low [14].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation with limited fluctuations in both futures and cash bonds, as market participants remain cautious following recent significant news and events [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed minimal changes, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03% to 116.16, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained flat at 108.415 and 105.875 respectively [2] - The interbank bond market displayed slight differentiation, with the yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" rising by 0.25 basis points to 1.805%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" fell by 0.15 basis points to 1.8745% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 4.121% [3] - Japanese government bond yields also rose, with the 10-year yield up by 0.4 basis points to 1.699% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds rising by 3.9 basis points to 3.415% and German bonds up by 4.4 basis points to 2.686% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds at 1.78% and 1.81% respectively, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.67 for both [5] - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.6579% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 7.72 [6] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation totaling 212.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [7] - The Shibor rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight rate rising by 4.8 basis points to 1.363% [7] Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that the likelihood of a comprehensive rate cut is low, with the central bank favoring a mix of liquidity management tools rather than standalone rate cuts [9] - The anticipated window for interest rate cuts is expected to open between Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with the bond market likely to price in expectations of monetary easing in advance [9]

Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Index indicates that liquidity pressure in November is expected to increase compared to October, with a liquidity gap around 2 trillion yuan, as many market institutions anticipate seasonal pressures due to the maturity of financial instruments [1][2][3]. Liquidity Conditions - In October, the central bank maintained a relatively proactive liquidity injection strategy, with a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan, the largest monthly value since March 2025 [2]. - The central bank's operations included a 1.1 trillion yuan front-loaded reverse repo to ease the liquidity pressure at the beginning of the month [2]. - The liquidity gap for November is projected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with some institutions suggesting it could exceed 3 trillion yuan [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank has restarted open market operations for government bonds, which many institutions believe could replace the need for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut [1][7]. - The necessity for an RRR cut in the fourth quarter is perceived to be lower, with 17 out of 20 institutions indicating a reduced likelihood of such a move [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the resumption of government bond trading may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, allowing for continued liquidity support without aggressive monetary easing [8][9]. Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to experience renewed downward trends, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially approaching the low of 1.7% seen in August [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that while the central bank's easing measures may be less aggressive, the need for monetary policy support remains due to ongoing economic challenges [9].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing a stable and continuous monetary policy framework that will guide financial market operations during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] Monetary Policy Framework - The "scientific and stable" monetary policy aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, economic growth and risk prevention, as well as internal and external factors [1] - The central bank's liquidity toolbox is well-stocked, with a reasonable distribution of terms, allowing for both short-term and long-term liquidity adjustments [2] Liquidity Tools and Mechanisms - The central bank has shifted its focus from quantity targets to interest rate levels, indicating a reduced emphasis on the monetary supply's direct control [2] - Different liquidity tools serve distinct purposes, with reserve requirement ratio (RRR) adjustments being used more cautiously compared to other tools [3] Interest Rate Mechanism - The central bank will adjust the timing of MLF operations to follow LPR announcements, reinforcing the significance of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as a policy interest rate [3] - The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is structured as "economic growth - policy interest rate - market interest rate," with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate becoming a key determinant for 10-year government bond yields [5] Economic Indicators and Policy Signals - Historical data shows that each round of RRR cuts corresponds with a decline in government bond yields, indicating that RRR adjustments signal policy easing [4] - The frequency of interest rate cuts is lower than that of RRR cuts, suggesting a more cautious approach by the central bank regarding interest rate adjustments [6]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, indicating a strategy to maintain market liquidity and support government bond issuance [1] - The operation is a continuation of the 700 billion yuan 3-month reverse repos maturing in November, with an expectation of a second operation later in the month due to an additional 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing [1] - The PBOC has resumed open market operations for government bonds, injecting liquidity into the market, which is seen as a dual signal for stabilizing growth and expectations [1] Industry Insights - The recent slowdown in credit issuance has led to a relatively ample liquidity situation in the banking system, reducing the need for increased liquidity injections [1] - There is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut by the PBOC before the end of the year to further lower bank funding costs and stabilize the interest margin while reducing overall financing costs in the economy [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected 700 billion yuan of liquidity through a reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - The operation is a continuation of the 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase that will mature on November 7, indicating a stable liquidity environment [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to conduct another 6-month reverse repurchase operation this month, with a possibility of increasing the amount [1] Group 2 - In October, the PBOC net injected 20 billion yuan of liquidity through open market operations, reflecting a cautious approach to managing market liquidity [2] - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is aimed at stabilizing market expectations without causing a rapid decline in interest rates [2] - Future expectations include potential increases in the scale of net bond purchases to counteract the pressure from maturing monetary tools [2]