零食届的蜜雪冰城？ 2016年，长沙零食很忙食品有限公司（以下简称：零食很忙）正式创立，2017年，全国首家"零食很忙"门店在长沙开业。2019年，江西宜春首 家"赵一鸣零食"门店亮相。作为鸣鸣很忙的开端，当初都没料想这两家公司未来会发展如此迅速。 来源：文轩财经 来源：赵一鸣零食官网 继今年4月首次递表港交所后，10月28日，湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司（以下简称：鸣鸣很忙）再次递交招股书，冲击港股。 鸣鸣很忙向港交所提交更新后的上市申请材料显示，截至2025年6月30日，鸣鸣很忙全国门店实现GMV（商品交易额）411亿元人民币，公司上半 年收入达281.2亿元人民币，同比增幅达86.9% 这家由零食很忙和赵一鸣零食整合而成的鸣鸣很忙，不到两年便启动资本进程，成为食品饮料零售届的一匹"黑马"。 2023年11月，上述两家公司完成合并，并注册新主体公司湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司。根据当时释放的消息，双方合并后保持品牌独立 运营，原零食很忙创始人晏周任董事长，赵一鸣零食创始人赵定继续负责原品牌战略。 同年5月，零食很忙宣布战略投资另一家零食集合店品牌"恰货铺子"数千万元，双方将共同开发全国市场。 根据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent quarterly report of Jinzai Food (003000.SZ) indicates a revenue increase without profit growth, with a slight revenue growth of 2.05% year-on-year to 1.808 billion yuan, marking the lowest growth rate since its listing in 2020. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.51% to 173 million yuan [3][4]. Group 1: Q3 Performance - In Q3, Jinzai Food achieved a revenue of 685 million yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.55% and 29.52%, respectively. However, the net profit decreased by 14.77% year-on-year to 60.83 million yuan, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability [5][7]. - The company has been focusing on the development, production, and sales of Chinese-style snack foods, with major products including fish products, poultry products, and bean products. Revenue growth rates from 2021 to 2024 were 22.21%, 31.59%, 41.26%, and 16.79%, respectively [5][6]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels, increasing the number of distributors to 3,502, up by 336 from the previous year. However, the core sales model's distributor revenue declined by 9.25% to 792 million yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Product Performance - The growth of fish products, a key revenue driver, showed signs of slowing down, with a revenue of 757 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, accounting for approximately 67.4% of total revenue. The growth rate has significantly decreased from 16.64% in the previous year [11][12]. - The company has been focusing on poultry products as a second growth curve, with revenue from this segment reaching 450 million yuan in 2023. However, in 2025, poultry product sales dropped by 27.88% year-on-year, leading to a revenue decline of 24% to 196 million yuan [12][13]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q3 decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 28.93%, influenced by changes in channel structure and the performance of different sales models [7][10]. - Sales expenses reached a record high of 250 million yuan in the first three quarters, with Q3 sales expenses at 95 million yuan, resulting in a sales expense ratio of 13.82%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points year-on-year [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.75 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 79 million yuan, down 73% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is facing pressure on costs due to rising raw material prices, particularly for sunflower seeds and nuts, which has impacted profitability [3] - The company is actively exploring new sales channels such as snack wholesale and membership stores to adapt to changing market conditions [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6.806 billion, 7.131 billion, 6.701 billion, 6.829 billion, and 6.996 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.1%, 4.8%, -6.0%, 1.9%, and 2.4% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 803 million, 849 million, 378 million, 665 million, and 780 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.8%, 5.8%, -55.6%, 76.1%, and 17.4% [2] - The gross margin is expected to be 26.8%, 28.8%, 23.8%, 27.2%, and 27.6% for the years 2023A to 2027E [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.5%, 14.8%, 6.4%, 10.7%, and 11.8% for the same period [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 1.58, 1.68, 0.75, 1.31, and 1.54 yuan for 2023A to 2027E [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face revenue pressure in Q4 2025 due to the late timing of the Spring Festival in 2026, but there is potential for recovery in profitability as raw material prices for sunflower seeds are projected to decline [3] - The company anticipates that the gross margin for sunflower seeds may improve in Q4 and the following year, while nut margins may remain under pressure [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.701 billion, 6.829 billion, and 6.996 billion yuan, with net profits of 378 million, 666 million, and 780 million yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Qiyunshan Food Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing impressive financial metrics, particularly in gross margin and operating cash flow, compared to its industry peers [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue has shown a growth trend from 2022 to 2024, with figures of 217 million, 247 million, and 339 million yuan respectively [2]. - The flagship product, South Jujube Cake, has been the largest contributor to revenue, with sales of 193 million, 209 million, and 294 million yuan during the same period [2]. - The gross margins for Qiyunshan Food from 2022 to 2024 were 47.2%, 48.8%, and 48.6%, significantly higher than the industry leader, Liuliu Guoyuan, whose gross margin is projected to drop to 36% in 2024 [1][3]. Pricing and Sales Dynamics - There is a discrepancy in the average selling price of South Jujube Cake, reported as decreasing from 40.5 yuan/kg in 2023 to either 39.3 yuan/kg or 34.3 yuan/kg in 2024, indicating potential pricing strategies or reporting inconsistencies [1][6]. - The company has expanded its distribution network, increasing the number of offline distributors from 140 in December 2022 to 199 by December 2024 [2]. Customer Structure and Relationships - Qiyunshan Food relies heavily on bulk snack channels, similar to Liuliu Guoyuan, which often require manufacturers to offer discounts [2]. - The company has a significant reliance on a local distributor, identified as Customer A, which has consistently been its largest customer from 2022 to 2024 [7]. - There are indications of potential conflicts of interest, as Customer A may have ties to Qiyunshan Food through shared ownership and management [7]. Raw Material Costs - Both Qiyunshan Food and Liuliu Guoyuan face similar raw material cost structures, with slight variations in the prices of their main ingredients [4][5]. - The price of South Jujube and green plums increased by 0.1 yuan/kg in 2024 compared to 2023, while sugar prices decreased for both companies [4]. Market Position and Risks - Despite lower brand recognition and revenue compared to Liuliu Guoyuan, Qiyunshan Food maintains a stable high gross margin, raising questions about the sustainability of its financial performance amidst industry challenges [3][5]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for inflated revenue or reduced costs, especially if the company's gross margin continues to exceed industry averages without clear competitive advantages [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laiyifen, reported a disappointing performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but a significant net loss, indicating a situation of increasing revenue without increasing profit [2][4][5]. Revenue Performance - Laiyifen's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.21% [4]. - The net profit turned negative at -50.68 million yuan, a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [4]. - The cash flow from operating activities decreased by 78.68% to 22.40 million yuan [4]. Cost and Profitability Issues - The company's gross margin fell to 32.61%, down 8.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -2.27%, a decline of 3.00 percentage points [6]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin further decreased to 30.21%, down 10.73 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Store Operations and Adjustments - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of stores decreased to 2,979, with a net reduction of 106 stores [8]. - The number of direct-operated stores fell by 90 to 1,395, while franchise stores decreased by 16 to 1,584 [8]. - Revenue from direct-operated stores dropped by 78.69% to 875 million yuan, while franchise store revenue increased by 78.71% to 722 million yuan [8]. Market Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The company faces intense competition from emerging snack retailers, which have adopted low-price strategies that appeal to consumers, particularly in lower-tier markets [5][11]. - The overall consumption environment remains challenging, impacting many physical stores, including those in the snack sector [5]. Strategic Transformation - Laiyifen is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on new business channels and product innovation to drive revenue growth [5][10]. - The company is also exploring new product categories, including beverages and prepared foods, to enhance its market presence [9][12]. Recommendations for Improvement - Analysts suggest that the company should enhance product development and innovation, optimize store operations, and strengthen online sales channels to improve profitability [12][13]. - There is a need for better cost control in the supply chain and a clearer brand positioning to differentiate from competitors [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jin Zai Food (stock code: 003000) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure in its business phase, with expectations for the effectiveness of adjustments to be released [1] - The first half of 2025 saw a slight decline in revenue and a significant drop in net profit, attributed to challenges in quail egg sales and competitive pressures [5] - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel adjustments, with expectations for marginal improvements in the second half of 2025 [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,411.94 million yuan in 2024 to 3,251.97 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 16.79% in 2024, slowing to 4.23% in 2025, and then rebounding to 13.94% and 13.53% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][6] - Net profit is expected to decline to 273.47 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 328.97 million yuan in 2026 and 390.84 million yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to remain stable, increasing from 30.47% in 2024 to 31.45% in 2027 [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, revenue from fish products and bean products showed growth, while quail egg sales faced a decline due to market conditions and competition [5] - The company has expanded its distribution channels, covering over 300,000 terminals and increasing the number of distributors by 10.6% [5] Market Performance - The stock closed at 12.81 yuan on August 27, 2025, with a market capitalization of 3.8 billion yuan [3] - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a focus on maintaining steady revenue growth despite current challenges [5]

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food reported a significant decline in net profit and revenue for the first half of 2025, primarily due to rising raw material costs and changes in external channels [3][8][10]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Qiaqia Food achieved revenue of 2.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.05% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 88.64 million yuan, down 73.68% year-on-year, marking the largest mid-year net profit decline since the company went public in 2011 [8][9]. - The second quarter saw revenue of 1.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.69%, but the net profit dropped 88.2% to 11.39 million yuan [5][10]. Product Contribution - Sunflower seed products accounted for 64.39% of total revenue, generating approximately 1.772 billion yuan [5]. - Nut products contributed 22.32% of revenue, amounting to about 614 million yuan, while other products generated around 304 million yuan, making up 11.05% of total revenue [5]. Regional Performance - Revenue in the Eastern and Northern regions declined by 24.76% and 19.83% respectively, while e-commerce and overseas sales grew by 24.79% and 13.18% [6]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the second quarter was 21.42%, down 3.56% year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs of core raw materials [10]. - The company faced increased costs for sunflower seeds and nuts, influenced by weather conditions and supply-demand dynamics [10]. Strategic Adjustments - Qiaqia Food is actively adjusting its product and channel structures, increasing investment in new product development and channel capabilities [11][12]. - The company plans to expand its snack wholesale channel, which generated sales of approximately 450 million yuan last year, and aims to increase its SKU offerings [13]. Market Expansion - Qiaqia Food intends to expand into nearly 200 county markets annually, focusing on optimizing channel strategies and enhancing brand penetration in overseas markets [13][14]. - The company is also strengthening its e-commerce presence on platforms like Pinduoduo and JD.com, while exploring new online channels [14].

Core Viewpoint - Wancheng Group plans to acquire the remaining 49% stake in Wanyou for a cash payment of 1.379 billion yuan, indicating steady operational progress [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition is based on performance commitments, with net profits for 2025-2027 not lower than 320 million, 330 million, and 350 million yuan respectively [1] - The estimated acquisition valuation corresponds to approximately 8.8 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio based on the 2025 performance target [1] Group 2: Market Concerns and Opportunities - There are market concerns regarding the impact of same-store sales decline on opening space, but the decline is attributed to a significant number of new store openings planned for 2024 [1] - The overall investment recovery cycle for leading snack brands remains attractive for franchisees, suggesting continued opening opportunities [1] Group 3: Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company is actively refining its cost-saving supermarket model, with discount formats in community settings experiencing significant growth [1] - Demand-driven development of discount formats is maturing, and Wancheng Group maintains a strong competitive advantage in community retail [1] - The acquisition of minority stakes is expected to enhance the parent company's profits [1] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues, net profits, and net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2026 to be 5.27 billion, 1.90 billion, 990 million yuan and 6.56 billion, 2.64 billion, 1.43 billion yuan respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to acquire 49% of Nanjing Wanyou Commercial Management Co., Ltd. for cash, enhancing its stake to approximately 75% post-acquisition, which is expected to positively impact its net profit in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The cash acquisition price is set at 1.379 billion yuan, with the company’s net profit projected to increase from 358 million yuan to 416 million yuan for the period of January to May 2025, resulting in an estimated valuation of around 10X PE [2]. - The performance commitment for Wanyou includes a minimum net profit of 320 million, 330 million, and 350 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, leading to a valuation of approximately 8.8X PE based on the 2025 target [2]. Group 2: Share Transfer and Team Incentives - A total of 9.89 million shares, representing 5.27% of the total share capital, will be transferred to core team member Zhou Peng at a price of 128.3 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.269 billion yuan [3]. - Zhou Peng and his spouse will delegate voting rights of 12.29 million shares (6.55% of total shares) to the actual controller Wang Zenin after the transfer [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - For the period of January to May 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 668 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 3.55% [4]. - The company expects the proportion of net profit attributable to the parent company to increase from 53.7% to 63.4% post-acquisition, representing an 18% increase [4]. - Revenue and net profit projections for 2025-2026 are estimated at 52.7 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan, and 65.6 billion yuan and 2.64 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company for the first time [4][7]. Core Insights - Wanchen Group (300972.SZ) has shifted its core business focus from edible fungi to snack wholesale, with the snack segment accounting for 98.33% of revenue by 2024 [4][38]. - The company has experienced significant growth in its snack wholesale business, with revenue reaching 31.79 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 66.6 times from 2023 to 2024 [7][41]. - The snack market in China is projected to maintain a growth rate of 6% to 8% over the next three years, with the market size expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan by 2026 [8][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Wanchen Group, established in 2011, initially focused on edible fungi but has transitioned to snack wholesale, which now dominates its revenue structure [4][38]. - The company has expanded its snack wholesale operations through acquisitions, including brands like "Lixiaochan" and "Haoxianglai," achieving a nationwide presence with over 15,000 stores by 2024 [7][41]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 9.294 billion yuan in 2023 to 52.373 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 1592.03% in 2023 and 62% in 2025 [6]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly, from a loss of 830 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 837 million yuan in 2025 [6]. Market Dynamics - The snack market in China has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, driven by urbanization and innovation in products and channels [8][11]. - Snack wholesale stores are characterized by low gross margins but high return on equity, with Wanchen Group achieving a return on equity of 17.44% in Q1 2025 [7][54]. Business Model - The snack wholesale model focuses on high turnover and low margins, with a gross margin of 11.02% in Q1 2025, which is lower than other retail channels [49][54]. - The company employs a franchise model to expand its market presence, with a significant increase in the number of franchise stores from 4,726 in 2023 to 15,000 in Q1 2025 [72]. Investment Outlook - The company's stock price has increased significantly, with a cumulative rise of 1,159% from January 1, 2023, to August 13, 2025, reflecting a strong market performance [80]. - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to replicate its successful wholesale model across other product categories in the future [7].