纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价13日上涨8.0美元，收于每盎司3407.0美 元，涨幅为0.24%。 美元指数、美国国债收益率下跌推动金价当天微涨。 市场分析人士认为，法定货币购买力减弱将继续支撑长期黄金需求。由于纸币体系不受约束的增长，黄 金和白银正处于重要的结构性突破边缘。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头近期拥有稳固的整体技术优势。 当天9月交割的白银期货价格上涨54.8美分，收于每盎司38.550美元，涨幅为1.44%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 鉴于美国劳动力市场疲软且通胀保持相对温和，更多华尔街公司预测美联储将在9月份开始降息。市场 预计美联储将在9月份货币政策会议上降息25个基点，并在12月和3月再降息两次。 泰国央行当日下调基准利率，并表示将继续维持宽松政策。自2024年10月开始，泰国央行已累计下调利 率100个基点。 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - The central bank's gold reserves increased to 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, marking a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces, continuing a trend of nine consecutive months of accumulation [1][2] - Despite the increase, the gold accumulation has been at a low level for five consecutive months, indicating a cautious approach to gold purchases [2] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2, reaching 1,249 tons, with a significant 45% increase in value to $132 billion [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $32,922 billion, a decline of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, ending a six-month trend of increases [1][4] - The decline in foreign reserves was attributed to factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and changes in asset prices, with the dollar index rising by 3.2% during the month [4] - The decrease in reserves was primarily driven by the appreciation of the dollar, which negatively impacted the valuation of non-dollar assets held in reserves [4][5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Trends - The global gold price remained volatile in July, with fluctuations influenced by geopolitical factors and trade agreements, peaking above $3,400 per ounce [3] - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office maintains a positive outlook on gold, projecting a target price of $3,500 per ounce, with potential for $3,800 per ounce under adverse geopolitical or economic conditions [3] - The overall financial asset prices in China's foreign reserves increased, which helped mitigate the impact of the dollar's appreciation on reserve valuations [5]

Market Performance - On July 31, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.66%[2] - A total of 4,133 stocks declined, 68 remained flat, and 1,019 stocks rose, with a trading volume exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan[1] Sector Analysis - Only six sectors closed in the green, including chemical pharmaceuticals, software development, internet, power equipment, biopharmaceuticals, and medical services[1] - The sectors with the largest declines were energy metals, steel, coal, mining, and photovoltaics[1] Investment Insights - The market has shown signs of a pullback after a rebound of nearly 600 points since the low on April 7, indicating a completed technical move[1] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors at relatively low levels for investment opportunities and prioritize high-performing stocks in the short term[1] Fund Flow - On July 31, net outflows from the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 17.249 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net outflows of 9.606 billion yuan[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were IT services, software development, and communication equipment, while the largest outflows were from liquor, real estate development, and electricity sectors[4] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[7] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in the service sector[7] Global Trends - In Q2 2025, global gold demand reached 1,249 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, which totaled 170 tons[11] - The first half of 2025 saw a record high for global gold ETF demand at 397 tons, the highest since 2020[11] Fund Dynamics - Public funds have seen nearly 5 billion yuan in self-purchases this year, with passive index funds being particularly favored, accounting for 20.65% of total self-purchases[12] - The second quarter report indicated a continued expansion in public fund asset sizes, with active equity funds increasing their stock positions in sectors like communication and finance[14]

世界黄金协会7月31日发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，在高金价环境下，二季度 全球黄金需求总量(包含场外交易)达1249吨，同比增长3%，强劲的投资需求成为推动需求增长的主要动 力。从消费需求来看，二季度全球金饰需求量同比下降，但以价值计，全球金饰消费额依然上涨。报告 显示，全球央行购金态势延续但节奏有所放缓，二季度共增储166吨。尽管购金增速放缓，但在持续的 全球经济与地缘政治不确定性条件下，全球央行购金量仍处于显著高位。(央视新闻) ...

世界黄金协会：2025年二季度全球黄金总需求（含场外交易投资）同比增长3%至1249吨。以价值计，全球黄金总需求同比大幅跃升45%，达到1320亿美元。各经济体央行仍是全球黄金需求的重要支柱，二季度全球官方黄金储备共计增加166吨。尽管购金步伐有所放缓，但央行购金需求前景依然乐观。多数地区金饰需求吨位同比下降，低迷表现几乎回落至2020年疫情期间的水平。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in gold prices over the past few years, with a cumulative increase of approximately 13% in 2023 and nearly 30% in 2024, leading to a peak price around 3000 USD, which has doubled the cost basis for many investors, particularly the "Chinese aunties" who bought gold years ago [3][6][10] - The article discusses the historical context of gold price fluctuations, noting a bear market from late 2013 to late 2019, where prices ranged between 1045 USD and 1500 USD, and how the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, have influenced gold prices [7][8] - It emphasizes the dynamic relationship between U.S. inflation expectations and Federal Reserve monetary policy, indicating that a potential interest rate cut could further increase gold's attractiveness as an investment [8][9] Group 2 - The article outlines the strong demand for gold, driven by both consumer and central bank purchases, with central banks significantly increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against economic instability and currency depreciation [10][12] - It provides insights into the various channels for investing in gold, recommending gold ETFs as a preferred method due to their lower transaction costs, better liquidity, and reduced risk compared to physical gold or futures contracts [12][15][22] - The article compares traditional gold ETFs with Shanghai Gold ETFs, highlighting the latter's advantages in terms of tracking accuracy, lower costs, and broader investment options, making them a more attractive choice for investors [17][20][21]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market is stabilizing with spot gold and COMEX gold prices fluctuating around $3,300 per ounce, as risk aversion sentiment decreases [1] - Heraeus Precious Metals predicts that international gold prices will fluctuate between $3,150 and $3,500 per ounce in the short term, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases [1][2] - U.S. economic data remains resilient, with June non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has weakened the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for July, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks continue to support gold demand, with a net increase of 20 tons of gold in May, primarily from Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Poland [2] - Despite a slight slowdown in the pace of gold purchases, market sentiment remains optimistic, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting an increase in gold holdings [2] - The demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks is rising, reflecting a structural shift in reserve management and increased diversification away from the U.S. dollar [2] Group 3: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices are maintaining strength due to demand from the jewelry sector, with prices fluctuating around $1,400 per ounce [2][3] - The platinum market is in a three-year supply-demand imbalance, with visible inventories being continuously consumed, leading to high leasing rates for platinum [3] - China's jewelry demand has significantly boosted platinum prices, with imports increasing to 12.57 tons in May, up from 11.54 tons in April, indicating strong physical demand [3]

Global Gold Demand and Production - In 2024, global gold demand reached a record high of 4,974 tons, while gold mine production was 3,661 tons, showing no significant year-on-year growth due to rising costs in labor and energy [1] China's Gold Production - China maintained its position as the world's largest gold producer for 18 consecutive years, with a production of 377.242 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.56% [3] - Zijin Mining, China's largest gold mining company, produced 72.94 tons of gold in 2024, a 7.7% increase, with 65.5% of its production coming from overseas mines [3] - Shandong Gold's gold production increased by 10.51% to 46.17 tons, with domestic mines contributing 38.32 tons, making it the highest gold producer among listed companies in China [3] Major Global Gold Mines - The top three gold mines in 2024 were Nevada Gold Mines in the USA (2,698,701 ounces), Muruntau in Uzbekistan (2,676,656 ounces), and Grasberg in Indonesia (1,861,000 ounces) [4][10] - Nevada Gold Mines, a joint venture between Barrick Gold and Newmont, produced 83.94 tons of gold in 2024 [9] - Muruntau, the world's largest open-pit gold mine, has proven reserves exceeding 4,500 tons and produced approximately 83.25 tons in 2024 [7][9] Emerging Gold Mining Projects in China - The Xiling Gold Mine in Shandong is the largest single gold deposit discovered in China, with gold reserves of 592 tons [4] - The San Shan Dao North Sea Gold Mine, China's first offshore gold discovery, has proven gold resources exceeding 500 tons and is expected to start production in mid-2025, targeting an annual output of over 15 tons [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices have significantly dropped, with spot gold falling over 2% to near $3220 per ounce, and currently trading below $3230 per ounce [2] - The price of gold jewelry in China has also decreased, with a notable brand's gold price reported at 1009 RMB per gram, down from over 1080 RMB per gram [4][6] - Some brands have seen their gold jewelry prices drop below 1000 RMB per gram, indicating a broader trend of declining gold prices in the market [7] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand in Q1 2025 reached 1206 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year, with gold ETF demand surging by 170% to 552 tons, the highest quarterly level since Q1 2022 [8] - In China, gold ETF inflows reached approximately 167 billion RMB (about $23 billion, or 23 tons), marking a historical high, with total assets under management (AUM) and total holdings also reaching record levels [9] - The rising gold prices have negatively impacted gold jewelry consumption, leading to a decline in the performance of gold jewelry companies, while gold mining companies have benefited from the price increase, resulting in significant growth in their performance [10]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached a historical high in Q1 2025, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, which were a key factor in the rise of gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Demand and Prices - In Q1 2025, the average gold price reached $2860 per ounce, a 38% increase year-on-year [3]. - Total global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, grew by 1% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2016 [3]. - Gold recycling decreased by 1% year-on-year as consumers opted to hold onto their gold in anticipation of further price increases [3]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Gold ETF inflows surged, leading to a 170% year-on-year increase in total gold investment demand, reaching 552 tons, the highest since Q1 2022 [4][7]. - Central banks globally purchased a net 244 tons of gold in Q1, aligning with the normal quarterly purchase levels over the past three years [7]. - Demand for gold bars and coins remained high at 325 tons, exceeding the five-year quarterly average by 15% [7]. Group 3: Jewelry Demand - Gold jewelry consumption in China fell to 125 tons in Q1, a 32% decline year-on-year, marking the weakest performance since 2020 [9]. - Despite the drop in volume, the monetary value of gold jewelry consumption increased by 9% year-on-year to $35 billion [7]. - The rising gold prices led consumers to shift towards smaller, more affordable gold products, while others chose to wait and see [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that gold prices will continue to be a critical factor influencing jewelry sales in China, with potential further declines in demand expected if prices remain high [11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are likely to sustain strong investment demand for gold [16].