瑞银认为，在实际收益率低迷、持续的全球经济担忧以及美国国内政策不确定性（尤其是与中期选举和 不断增加的财政压力相关的不确定性）的支撑下，2026年黄金需求将稳步增长。 随着黄金的价格在今年"一路狂飙"，华尔街分析师们的2026年展望报告也在被不断"撕碎重写"。 在周一最新发布的一份报告中，瑞银宣布，其对2026年前三个季度（截至9月）黄金价格的预期将上调 至每盎司5000美元。而如果围绕美国中期选举的政治或经济动荡加剧，黄金价格甚至可能涨至每盎司 5400美元。 此外，瑞银的大宗商品策略师们还预计，到2026年底，黄金价格将回落至每盎司4800美元——比之前的 预测每盎司4300美元高出500美元。 事实上，在短短两个月不到的时间里，瑞银已多次调整其预期。11月初，在金价回落之际，瑞银分析师 就曾指出那是暂时的，他们认为地缘政治或市场风险加剧的上行前景可能会推动金价升至4,700美元的 高位。 他们还引用了世界黄金协会第三季度黄金需求趋势报告，该报告证实了各国央行和个人投资者的购买 力"非常强劲且正在加速增长"。 随后在11月20日，瑞银将2026年年中黄金目标价格上调至每盎司4500美元——此前为每盎司42 ...

上海增养家 【市场回顾】 12月24日日韩股市开盘 12月24日现货黄金首次 【个股资讯】 新 3 社 主管主办 11月特斯拉在欧洲销量 亚马逊旗下自动驾驶公 332辆汽车 华纳兄弟探索将考虑派 手豹 (国际宏观) 【市场回顾】 北京时间12月24日，日韩股市开盘齐涨。日经225指数涨0.12%，报50475.48点；韩国综合指数涨0.46%，报4136.24点。 北京时间12月24日早盘，现货黄金（伦敦金现）史上首次站上4500美元/盎司关口，今年累计涨逾70%。 当地时间12月23日，道指涨0.16%报48442.41点，标普500指数涨0.46%报6909.79点，创收盘新高，纳指涨0.57%报23561.84点，美国三大股指均录得四连涨。 美国2025年第三季度经 当地时间12月23日，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨0.23%报24340.06点；英国富时100指数涨0.24%报9889.22点；法国CAC40指数跌0.21%报 8103.85点。 【个股资讯】 11月，特斯拉在欧洲销量同比下降11.8%至22801辆，市场份额降至2.1%。 美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，亚马逊旗下的自 ...

Group 1: Strategy - The international monetary system exhibits a stable "center-periphery" structure, where dominant currencies have changed over time, but the underlying order remains consistent. This order is rooted in trust and the "high-order belief" in sovereign currencies, which are supported by national credit and legal tender, creating liquidity premiums and network effects, thus exhibiting natural monopoly characteristics [6]. - The formation of central currencies relies on economic, financial, and institutional advantages, maintained through positive feedback loops. However, when debt expansion exceeds fiscal and institutional constraints, emerging countries may seize the opportunity to rise as old centers decline. Currently, the foundation of the dollar system is weakening, and global economic diversification is accelerating. If the RMB can leverage institutional reforms and market openness, it may enhance asset depth and international trust, potentially leading to a more balanced multi-center global currency system [6]. Group 2: Macroeconomy - Since 2022, geopolitical factors, "de-dollarization," and the continuous growth of U.S. debt have driven gold prices higher. The demand for gold is primarily influenced by central bank purchases, which have become a significant source of demand in recent years. However, as gold prices rise, some central banks have begun to reduce their gold holdings temporarily, as the ratio of gold to reserve assets exceeds their targets. Overall, there may still be room for an increase in the global allocation of gold by central banks [10]. - The U.S. stock market has experienced a long-term bull market since the 1980s, driven by economic structural transformation and the information technology revolution, which provided substantial expansion opportunities for companies. Stable capital inflows have translated future economic potential into current stock market valuations, resulting in stock market growth rates significantly exceeding economic growth rates [12]. - Japan's economy underwent a structural transformation during the "lost two decades" post-1990, which created investment opportunities despite overall macroeconomic challenges. The structural rise in Japan's stock market reflects this transformation, driven by corporate globalization, high-tech leadership, and improved corporate governance. Excluding the "old economy" sectors heavily exposed to domestic real estate and deflation, the "new economy" sectors have shown strong trends since the 1990s [14].

Core Insights - In October, upstream physical gold demand showed a seasonally strong performance, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold outflow reaching 124 tons, an increase of 6 tons month-on-month and a slight increase of 17 tons year-on-year, indicating a rise in gold investment enthusiasm [1][4] - Gold prices continued to rise in October, with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) price increasing by 4.9% and the Shanghai afternoon benchmark price rising by 5.5%. The market experienced volatility, with prices initially surging due to ETF buying and rising risks, followed by a correction in the latter half of the month due to easing geopolitical risks and profit-taking [2][4] Upstream Physical Gold Demand - The SGE gold outflow in October reached 124 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6 tons and a year-on-year increase of 17 tons, driven by heightened investment interest [4] - The increase in demand is attributed to factors such as escalating US-China trade tensions and a cooling domestic stock market, which contributed to rising gold prices [4] Gold ETF Flow and Price Trends - In October, China's gold ETF inflow was approximately 1 billion RMB, marking the strongest monthly performance since April, with total assets under management (AUM) increasing by 24% [6][8] - The total holdings surged by 33 tons to 227 tons, indicating significant growth in demand for gold ETFs in the Chinese market [8] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, purchasing 0.9 tons in October. Since early 2025, the official gold reserves have increased by approximately 24 tons, accounting for 8% of total foreign exchange reserves [10][12] Recent Trends in Gold Imports - In September, China's net gold imports reached 93 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5 tons and a year-on-year increase of 36 tons, aligning with observed patterns in upstream physical gold demand [14] Future Outlook - Recent changes in China's value-added tax policy on gold may exert pressure on domestic jewelry demand, as consumers will bear additional tax costs. However, the steady rise in gold prices over the past three years may have reduced consumer sensitivity to price changes [16] - The new tax policy does not affect investment products such as gold bars sold by SGE members, gold ETFs, and accumulated gold, although providers may adjust their buy/sell policies based on their circumstances [16]

Core Insights - Global gold demand is expected to remain resilient in Q4, with a potential seasonal rebound in the Chinese market driven by holidays [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) indicates that geopolitical uncertainties and anticipated interest rate cuts in Q4 will continue to support global gold demand [1] - Investment demand remains dominant, with record high global gold demand in Q3 2025, primarily driven by gold bars and coins [1][2] Group 1: Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with total demand value rising 44% to $146 billion [1] - Investment demand accounted for 40.9% of total gold demand, with gold bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, totaling 316 tons [1] - Central bank gold purchases remained high at 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase quarter-on-quarter, despite a slowdown in cumulative purchases compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Chinese Gold Market - In Q3 2025, China's retail gold investment and consumption demand totaled 152 tons, a 7% year-on-year decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [3] - However, the monetary value of this demand reached 120.4 billion RMB (approximately $16.9 billion), a 29% year-on-year increase, indicating a "volume drop, price rise" trend [3] - Gold jewelry demand saw a seasonal rebound, with a quarterly demand of 84 tons, down 18% year-on-year but up 21% quarter-on-quarter, driven by seasonal factors and consumer willingness to purchase despite high prices [3] Group 3: Gold Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply increased only 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons, with gold mine production and recycled gold contributing 73.8% and 26.2% respectively [2] - The average gold price in Q3 2025 reached $3,457 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase, reflecting the disparity between strong demand and limited supply growth [2] Group 4: Gold ETFs in China - In Q3, China's gold ETFs experienced a slight outflow of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million), ending three consecutive quarters of net inflow [4] - Despite the outflow, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs grew 11% year-on-year to 168.8 billion RMB (approximately $23.7 billion), reaching a new monthly high [4] - The Chinese official gold reserves increased by 24 tons in the first nine months of the year, with a quarterly increase of 5 tons, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high, driven by strong investment demand, while China's gold demand showed a "volume decline but value rise" pattern. Looking ahead to Q4, global gold allocation demand is expected to remain resilient, and China's market may see a holiday-driven uptick [2][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, total global gold demand (including OTC investment) rose about 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes, with the total value up 44% YoY to $146 billion. Investment demand was the main driver, with bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tonnes for the fourth consecutive quarter and global gold ETF holdings increasing sharply. Central bank gold purchases remained high at 220 tonnes, up 28% QoQ [2] - The breakdown of global gold demand shows that investment/gold jewelry manufacturing/central banks and other institutions/technology use/OTC and other institutions accounted for 40.9%/31.9%/16.7%/6.2%/4.2% respectively. Gold jewelry consumption volume declined 19% YoY to 371 tonnes but the consumption value rose 13% YoY to $41 billion due to high gold prices [2] Global Gold Supply - Amid high prices, total global gold supply rose only 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes, with mine production and recycled gold accounting for 73.8% and 26.2% respectively, up 2% and 6% YoY. The contrast between demand growth and supply expansion drove prices higher. In Q3 2025, the LBMA average gold price reached $3,457/oz, up 40% YoY and 5% QoQ [4] China's Gold Market - In Q3 2025, China's total retail gold investment and consumption demand was 152 tonnes, down 7% YoY and 38% QoQ, but the value reached RMB 120.4 billion ($16.9 billion), up 29% YoY. Gold jewelry demand accounted for 55.3%, with a volume of 84 tonnes, down 18% YoY but up 21% QoQ, and the retail sales reached RMB 66.5 billion (+14% YoY / +25% QoQ) [8] - Gold bar and coin investment demand rose 19% YoY to 74 tonnes, though down 36% QoQ, and the cumulative 9M25 purchases reached 313 tonnes (+24% YoY). China's gold ETFs had a small outflow of RMB 3.8 billion ($540 million) in Q3 2025, but the AUM still rose 11% QoQ to RMB 168.8 billion. The official gold reserves increased by 24 tonnes YTD, with a 5-tonne increase in Q3 2025, reaching 2,304 tonnes, or 7.7% of foreign exchange reserves [8] Outlook - The World Gold Council believes that geopolitical uncertainty and Q4's rate cut expectations will support global gold allocation demand. In China, Q4 gold jewelry consumption may improve seasonally, but if gold prices remain high, the end - market recovery may be limited. The later Lunar New Year in 2026 may push back retailer restocking and consumer purchases [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have significantly declined, leading to domestic gold jewelry prices dropping below 1200 yuan per gram, prompting market reactions [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Retail foot traffic in Guangzhou remains stable, with no significant changes observed despite the price drop [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends - According to the "2025 Q3 Global Gold Demand Trend Report," China's gold jewelry consumption is stabilizing; although the tonnage has decreased, the consumption value remains high [1] - Lightweight and high-weight product designs continue to be favored by young consumers [1]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - The price of gold jewelry in domestic stores is approaching 1200 CNY per gram, with some brands exceeding this price point [1] - Zhou Shengsheng's gold price has increased by 28 CNY per gram, reaching a new high of 1203 CNY per gram, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1118 CNY per gram [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices has expanded to 85 CNY per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also risen, with Zhou Shengsheng's platinum jewelry increasing by 7 CNY per gram to 650 CNY per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has surged by 17.2 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [2] - The recycling price for gold is reported at 906.20 CNY per gram, with other brands like Lao Fengxiang at 916.70 CNY per gram [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - The spot gold price rebounded to a maximum of 4026.87 USD per ounce, closing at 4024.55 USD per ounce, marking a 2.44% increase [4] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price has decreased to 4010.48 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% decline [4] - The increase in gold prices was primarily supported by a weaker US dollar and ongoing concerns regarding US-China trade negotiations [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons, with a total value of 146 billion USD, marking the highest quarterly demand for gold [4]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures have generally risen, with COMEX gold futures up 0.94% at $4038.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.71% at $48.73 per ounce [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold prices have increased by 50%, reaching a historical high of $4381 per ounce on October 20, driven by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, and a recent surge in buying reflecting safe-haven demand [1] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q3, reaching a record 1313 tons, with a significant rise in investment demand [1] Group 2 - Central banks, another major source of gold demand, increased their purchases by 10% in Q3, totaling 219.9 tons, which, while lower than the exceptionally high levels of the past three years, is significantly above pre-2022 levels [4] - The World Gold Council expects total annual purchases to range between 750 to 900 tons [4] - Rising gold prices have led to a decrease in jewelry consumption in Q3 to the lowest level since 2020, prompting the Council to lower its annual forecast; however, consumer spending on jewelry increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching $410 billion [4] Group 3 - In Q3, total global gold demand reached $146 billion, setting a record for the highest quarterly amount, with total investment demand at 537 tons, a 47% year-on-year increase [4] - Central banks' net gold purchases totaled 220 tons in Q3, reflecting a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase [4] - Global gold supply in Q3 reached 1313 tons, marking a quarterly record and a 3% year-on-year increase [4] Group 4 - The Hong Kong government has invited the Shanghai Gold Exchange to participate in establishing a central clearing system for gold, accelerating the development of an international gold trading center [4] - The next goal for Hong Kong is to surpass 2000 tons in gold reserves within three years, aiming to build a regional gold reserve hub and diversify gold investment tools [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in global gold demand, particularly driven by investment, following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening [1][2] - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever recorded [1] - Investment demand surged to 537 tons, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of the total net demand for the quarter [1] Group 2 - In the Chinese market, Q3 gold demand showed a significant decline, with retail investment and consumption dropping to 152 tons, a 7% year-on-year decrease and a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline, marking the weakest performance since 2009 [2] - Gold ETF demand in China turned negative, with an outflow of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million), ending a three-quarter inflow trend, while total holdings decreased by 5.8 tons to 194 tons [2] - Despite the challenges in Q3, the overall performance of gold ETFs in China for the first three quarters remained strong, with a record net inflow of 59.3 billion RMB (approximately $8.2 billion) and total holdings increasing by 79 tons [2] Group 3 - Central banks globally continued to purchase gold, with net purchases in Q3 reaching 220 tons, a 28% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year, totaling 634 tons for the first three quarters [3]