Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The terminal demand in the black industry continues to be weak, spot trading is poor, and speculative demand has also weakened. However, there is still an expectation of production restrictions. Recently, market sentiment has cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black industry, but differentiation among varieties may intensify [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures generally declined. The rebar closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 0.88%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3460 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the iron ore main contract closed at 772 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both declined today, with the coking coal decline close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. Both the social inventory and the steel mill inventory increased by nearly 3% month - on - month. Specifically, the steel mill inventories of all five varieties increased to varying degrees. The wire rod steel mill inventory increased by 8.13%, and its total inventory increased by 5.5%, with the apparent demand decreasing by 1.35% month - on - month. Rebar was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in production among the five major varieties. The steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, the social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and the total inventory also decreased by 5.5%. However, the apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, reaching a new low in the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [1]. - **Supply**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rebounded by 2.6% to 65.8%. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% compared with last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 3,400 tons to 240,660 tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2%. Last week, the shortage of scrap resources remained unchanged. Since the increase in scrap prices was greater than that of rebar, the spread between rebar and scrap narrowed. The daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, some regions with high profits still had steel mills resuming production. As of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills both increased month - on - month [1]. Investment Advice - **Iron ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the change in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

宏观数据偏弱，黑色高位回调 钢矿周度报告 2025-08-18 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 价格 | 主要观点 现货小幅下跌，盘面震荡运行 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供给 | 高炉产量小幅增加，电炉产量同步走高 建材社库继续累积，板材库存同步增加 | | | 库存 | | | | 需求 | 建材需求走弱，板材表需回升 | | 钢 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润高位收窄，电炉利润收窄明显 | | | 基差 | 板材建材基差双双收窄 | | | | 美国核心通胀超预期，降息压力增加，国内方面，7月宏观数据全面走弱，市场期待政策进一步加码；产业变化：上周高炉开工环比回升，铁水产量小幅走 高，电炉开工继续回升，整体供应增加，其中螺纹产量微降，主要受部分钢厂轧线检修及品种调配影响，板类产量略有增加；需求方面，水泥发运环比回 | | | 总结 | 落，建材需求继续走低；板类需求 ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-12 01-24 02-05 02-17 02-29 03-12 03-24 04-05 04-17 04-29 05-11 05-23 06-04 06-16 06-28 07-10 07-22 08-03 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-20 10-02 10-14 10-26 11-07 11-19 12-01 12-13 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01- ...

01 螺纹：短线交易 02 03 铁矿：震荡偏强 双焦：中性观望 目 录 黑色：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-11 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业中心】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 螺纹钢：短线交易 01 01 投资策略：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 p 主要观点 上周煤矿相关消息较多，部分矿山重启276工作日制度，双焦期货价格大幅上涨，不过原料未能带动钢价上行，螺 纹钢期、现货价格均窄幅震荡。基本面方面，根据钢联统计口径，最近一期螺纹钢表需环比增加7.38万吨，产量增加 10.12万吨，库存增加10.39万吨，需求淡季矛盾积累尚不明显，供需保持相对均衡，不过上周累库速度略有加快。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本、高于电炉谷电成本，静态估值中性；驱动方面，宏观端， 过度乐观预期有所降温，关注中美关税政策变化（8月12日是中美双方达成暂停关税协议的最后期限），产业端，现实 供需均衡，关注粗钢限产执行情况、焦煤复产进度，预计短期保持震荡格局。 p 交易策略 短线交易，RB2510关 ...

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-2 ...

Report Title - Steel and Ore Monthly Report 2025 - 08: Industrial Expectations Disappointed, Black Rebound Halted [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center's Black Industry Group [2] Report Main Views Steel - **Price**: Spot prices rebounded significantly, and the futures market was strong. In July, the螺纹10 contract rose 208 to 3205, and the hot - rolled coil futures price rose 267 to 3390. Shanghai's spot prices for rebar and hot - rolled coil increased by 220 and 170 respectively [8]. - **Supply**: Blast furnace production remained high, and electric furnace supply increased significantly. As of August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.05% at the end of July [11][18]. - **Demand**: Speculative demand for building materials increased significantly, while both domestic and foreign demand for plates decreased month - on - month. In July, the average monthly apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1% [24][27]. - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits continued to increase, and electric furnace production turned profitable. By August 1, the blast furnace profitability rate reached 65.4%, and the average profit of electric furnace rebar at off - peak electricity was 81 yuan/ton on July 30 [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation rate of building materials was slower than expected, and plate inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 1, rebar social inventory increased by 200,000 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil social inventory increased by 2% in July [35][38]. - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated, and the futures - spot spread accelerated its decline. The rebar 10 - contract basis widened by 4 from the end of June to August 1, and the hot - rolled coil basis inverted [41]. - **Summary**: In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, molten iron production remained high, and electric furnace production increased significantly. Overall supply was abundant. Demand for plates was weak due to the seasonal off - peak for manufacturing. Considering the weakening support logic in the black industry, there is significant pressure for a correction in the futures market. Maintain a short - selling strategy in the short term [3]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Spot ore prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. In July, the futures price rose 63.5 to 779, and the Rizhao Port PB powder price rose 64 to 779 yuan/ton [52]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. In July, the weekly average global shipment volume was 30.73 million tons, a decrease of 3.59 million tons from the previous month [55]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production remained high, and demand was expected to remain resilient. In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, and molten iron production remained high. It is expected that the average daily molten iron production in August will be between 2.37 and 2.4 million tons [64]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks passively. As of August 1, the 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 1.74 million tons month - on - month [70]. - **Shipping**: Shipping prices increased significantly [76]. - **Spread**: There was no trading space for the futures spread, but attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]. - **Summary**: In July, supply tightened while demand remained high, and the fundamentals were strong. Later, affected by the weakening industrial logic, ore prices declined from their highs. Considering the short window period for short - selling and the more certain weakening of finished products, short - selling iron ore is not recommended for now. Instead, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore [3]. Strategies - For steel, continue to hold the short positions recommended in the weekly strategy and watch for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore and the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term macro expectations are strong, and the continuous situation of billet exports should be monitored. The anti - involution drives the raw material positive feedback effect, and the market is regarded as fluctuating strongly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On July 23, the overall upward trend of black commodity futures weakened, with coking coal leading the rise and hitting the daily limit. The closing price of rebar was 3274 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3438 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; the closing price of iron ore was 812 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to rise sharply, and coking coal hit the daily limit [1] Market Analysis Macro Aspect - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials. On July 19, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, which may set a record in investment scale, igniting the financial market's bullish sentiment and bringing imagination space for steel demand expansion [1] Supply Aspect - From July 14 to July 20, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons, reaching a three - week high. Australian shipments decreased by 1.089 million tons to 16.294 million tons, Brazilian shipments increased by 1.021 million tons to 9.226 million tons, and non - mainstream region shipments rose by more than 30%. Due to the previous decline in shipments, the arrival volume of overseas iron ore in Chinese ports decreased significantly, with the arrival volume at 47 ports being 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons. Currently, the supply pressure of iron ore is not significant [1] Demand Aspect - High profits of steel mills drive the increase of molten iron production in the off - season. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 28.14%. The average daily molten iron production was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. The better - than - expected recovery of molten iron production indicates good demand for iron ore, which may have a positive impact on the market [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Monitor supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Monitor the stable - after - decline oscillating market and the strength relationship between the two [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, spot prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded from a low level. Blast furnace production decreased slightly, and electric furnace production continued to decline. Building material social inventory continued to decrease, while plate inventory accumulated at an accelerated pace. Building material speculative demand increased significantly, while plate domestic demand declined significantly. Blast furnace profits remained high, and the loss of electric furnaces narrowed. The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit. The industrial logic accounted for a relatively low proportion, and the expected trading speculation was still fermenting. The probability of the futures market returning to a downward trend in the short - term was low. It was recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. - For iron ore, the ore price rose strongly, and the futures market continued to rebound. Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, while arrivals increased slightly. Blast furnace production decreased, and demand weakened month - on - month. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the total downstream inventory declined. Shipping costs increased slightly, and the futures price spread narrowed. The anti - involution speculation continued to ferment, and the market sentiment was still recovering. The supply was relatively flat last week, and the demand decreased slightly. The change in supply - demand strength was not obvious, and it was expected that news speculation would continue next week. It was also recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The price of rebar rebounded strongly last week, with the 10 - contract rising 77 to 3072. The spot price fluctuated, with rebar in East China reported at 3170 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan week - on - week [13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 0.65 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, down 0.39 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons week - on - week. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points [16][24]. - The rebar production decreased by 4.42 tons last week, and the hot - rolled production decreased by 5 tons week - on - week [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - From July 2nd to July 8th, the national cement outbound volume was 272.58 tons, down 1.26% week - on - week and 27.41% year - on - year. Speculative demand improved, while terminal demand declined [31]. - The weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 873.07 tons, down 1.4%; plate consumption decreased by 1.8% month - on - month [34]. 3.1.4 Profit - For blast furnaces, although the iron ore price rose significantly and the profit per ton of steel declined, it still operated between 160 - 200. The loss of short - process production was repaired, and the valley - electricity production in the Southwest region turned profitable [38]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1339.58 tons, down 0.35 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.03%. The total inventory of the five major products decreased week - on - week. The factory inventory increased week - on - week, mainly contributed by medium - thick plates. The social inventory decreased week - on - week, mainly contributed by rebar. The rebar factory inventory showed a slight increase, up 0.41 tons week - on - week [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - factory inventory decreased slightly compared with last week. In terms of social inventory, from the perspective of the three major regions, the inventory in the North decreased by 1.61 tons week - on - week, while the inventory in East China and the South increased by 1.84 tons and 0.9 tons respectively [45]. 3.1.6 Basis The current basis of rebar 10 was 107, narrowing 1 compared with last week, and the change in the basis was not significant. All reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit [50]. 3.1.7 Inter - period Spread The 10 - 1 spread was - 28, with an inverted spread of 7 compared with last week, and the degree of inversion deepened. The near - month contract faced off - season pressure, and the price was expected to decline. The far - month contract had a better expectation, and the price was relatively high. The inverted spread situation might be repaired after the rebound ended [53]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 140, widening 11 compared with last week. The spot spread was 70, narrowing 20 compared with last week. The spread was at a moderately high level. The rebar rebound was relatively strong, and the plate faced the off - season of the automotive industry with declining demand. It was expected that there would be no further contraction space in the futures spread, and no operation was recommended [56]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price rebounded strongly last week, with the 09 - contract rising 31.5 to 764. The spot price also rose, with the PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 27 to 752 yuan/ton. The market sentiment improved significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks, leading to a significant increase in port transactions [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current shipment volume was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 363 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in July was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 437 tons compared with last month and an increase of 64 tons compared with last year [64]. - In the long - term, the weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 1764 tons, a decrease of 252 tons compared with last month and an increase of 95 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 181 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 144 tons compared with last year. From the perspective of cumulative shipments this year, the cumulative global iron ore shipments decreased by 173 tons year - on - year, with Brazil's cumulative shipments increasing by 683 tons year - on - year, Australia's cumulative shipments decreasing by 661 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative shipments decreasing by 196 tons year - on - year [67]. - The arrival volume of 47 ports increased week - on - week, at a moderately low level compared with the same period in the past three years. The current arrival volume was 2535.5 tons, an increase of 122 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in July was 2535.5 tons, a decrease of 59 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 20 tons compared with last year. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative arrival volume of 47 ports decreased by 2528 tons year - on - year, with Australia's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 575 tons year - on - year, Brazil's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 392 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative arrivals decreasing by 1560 tons year - on - year [70]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased last week, with an average daily output of 239.81 tons/day, a decrease of 1.04 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 9.22 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.52 tons/day compared with last year [73]. - In terms of downstream procurement, the average daily port transaction volume last week was 90.1 tons, a decrease of 7.7 tons week - on - week. Due to the sharp rise in the previous period, the market's fear of high prices resurfaced, and the overall transaction volume declined. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished stocks as needed, and the procurement volume decreased with the decline in pig iron production [76]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The inventory of 47 ports decreased week - on - week, lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14346.89 tons, a decrease of 139 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 1264 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1359 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year [79]. - In terms of downstream inventory, on July 10th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills under the new statistical caliber was 2814.74 tons, an increase of 13.80 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 112.42 tons, a decrease of 5.81 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 25.04, an increase of 1.35 compared with the previous period. The total steel mill ore powder inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the price was relatively high, and the steel procurement rhythm was slow [82]. 3.2.5 Shipping The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.54 US dollars/ton, rising 0.15 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 19.33 US dollars/ton, rising 0.75 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost increased slightly [85]. 3.2.6 Spread The 9 - 1 spread was 27.5, widening 2 compared with last week, and the overall change was not significant. The 9 - 1 spread was at a moderately low level, and the overall spread structure was relatively flat. The 09 - contract was at a discount of 9, at a moderately low level. The spread narrowed 5 last week. Recently, the futures price rose sharply, and the spot price might follow the decline of finished steel products later. The iron ore basis was expected to expand slightly [88].

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（6.20） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | ...

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-06-16): Supply-Demand Structure Weakens, Black Market in Weak Oscillation [1] Research Team - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The supply-demand structure of steel products continues to weaken this week, and it is expected that the black market will remain in a weak operation overall. Maintain a bearish view and cash in some profits when a new low is reached [7]. - Last week, the supply of iron ore improved, demand continued to slow down, and the supply-demand pattern weakened overall. This week, it may still trade on the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off-season, and ore prices will remain in a weak operation. Maintain a shorting strategy, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar was still operating at a low level below 3000, and the market sentiment remained weak. The 10 - contract fell 6 to close at 2969. The spot price oscillated, with rebar in East China reported at 3080 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week [12]. 1.2 Supply - The output of blast furnaces decreased slightly, and electric furnaces continued to cut production. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased for five consecutive weeks. The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. Short - process steel mills still face large - scale losses, and production cuts are expected to continue. Rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.7 tons week - on - week [18][21][25]. 1.3 Demand - Building material demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic demand for plates also weakened. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased, and the actual demand for building materials decreased significantly due to the off - season and bad weather. The domestic demand for hot - rolled coils may decline faster in the consumption off - season, and the manufacturing industry faces increasing downward pressure [28][32]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of long - process steel remained at a high level, while the profit of electric furnaces continued to decline. The profit of long - process building materials was around 70 - 100, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was around 150 - 200. As of the 13th, the national average profit of short - process was - 124 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [36]. 1.5 Inventory - The inventory reduction speed of building materials was average, and the inventory of plates continued to accumulate. Rebar social and steel mill inventories decreased, while hot - rolled coil factory and social inventories increased [39][43]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar narrowed significantly. The current rebar 10 basis is 101, narrowing 54 from last week. Continue to hold reverse arbitrage positions and pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity around 80 [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread narrowed by 3 to 1, and the inverted situation was completely reversed. The near - month contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - month contract also faces trade conflict interference. The price difference is expected to fluctuate around par [52]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has no obvious driving force to continue narrowing. The current futures spread is 113, narrowing 4 from last week, and the spot spread is 90, remaining the same as last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and no operation is recommended [55]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated downward, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. Last week, iron ore oscillated weakly, the 09 contract fell 4.5 to close at 703, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port fell 13 to 720 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and the arrivals continued to increase. The global iron ore shipments in the current period were 3510.4 tons, up 79 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports increased, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past three years [63][69]. 2.3 Demand - The rigid demand decreased as blast furnace output declined, and the speculative demand also decreased as port transactions declined. The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 241.61 tons/day, down 0.19 tons/day week - on - week. The daily average port transaction volume was 94.9 tons, down 2 tons week - on - week [72][75]. 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased, and downstream inventory also increased. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 103 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills increased by 130.63 tons [78][81]. 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Brazil to China increased. The freight from Western Australia to China was 10.3 dollars/ton, remaining basically the same, while the freight from Brazil to China was 26.3 dollars/ton, up 1.8 dollars/ton week - on - week [84]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly, and the basis also decreased. The 9 - 1 spread was 33, narrowing 3 from last week, and the 09 contract discount was 35, narrowing 6 from last week [86].