黑色建材日报 2025-11-19 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 铁矿石 【行情资讯】 昨日铁矿石主力合约（I2601）收至 792.00 元/吨，涨跌幅+0.44 %（+3.50），持仓变化-10108 手，变化 至 47.13 万手。铁矿石加权持仓量 90.80 万手。现货青岛港 PB 粉 795 元/湿吨，折盘面基差 53.55 元/ 吨，基差率 6.33%。 消息方面，西芒杜铁矿项目于 11 月 11 日正式投产，但爬产仍需时间，预计年内增量 有限。 【策略观点】 供给方面，最新一期海外铁矿石发运量回升明显。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量均有所反弹。主流矿山方面， 除 BHP 外其余三家发运均环比提升。非主流国家发运量有所增加，近端到港量减量较多，两周平滑后符合 节奏。需求方 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Black: Raw Materials Alternately Decline, Steel Relatively Resilient [1] - **Report Date**: November 17, 2025 [1] - **Reporting Company**: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The raw materials decline alternately while steel shows relative resilience [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Black Sector Performance - Last week, the black sector showed a divergent trend. Steel and iron ore prices remained stable, while coking coal and coke prices dropped significantly. The strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil > coke > coking coal [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Comparison - The futures market showed a differentiated trend, with non-ferrous metals performing strongly [6]. 3.3 Spot Prices - Rebar and iron ore prices increased, while scrap steel prices decreased slightly [8]. 3.4 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [10]. 3.5 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and inventory was slowly depleted [12]. 3.6 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at ports were high, leading to continuous increases in port inventory. Although pig iron production rebounded last week, it is expected to decline again in the future, and the supply-demand pattern of iron ore will gradually become looser [3][21]. 3.7 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production increased slightly last week, and inventory accumulated. The profitability of coking plants was poor, and coke production dropped to a low level, with coke inventory being depleted again [3]. 3.8 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production continued to decline, and inventory was depleted again [26]. 3.9 Variety Spreads - The mill's paper profit rebounded from the bottom, and the rebar-coke price ratio widened [28]. 3.10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple cities in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather. China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves changed in October. The vice premier will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone and attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project. The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry for one year. Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are progressing, with an estimated reduction of about 2 million tons of construction steel output, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total output in 2025. Mysteel predicts that the total output of the Simandou project in 2026 will reach 20 million tons. Most provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have suspended automobile replacement subsidies or scrapping and renewal subsidies. The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [33].

万林新 黑色建材日报 2025-11-17 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3053 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.229%）。当日注册仓单 90327 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 183.7133 万手，环比减少 20210 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3256 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.061%）。 当日注册仓单 114083 吨, 环比增加 6477 吨。主力合约持仓量为 128 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, due to the impact of the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly declined, and the demand is still weak, with prices continuing the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to reach an inflection point [2]. - For iron ore, high inventory still suppresses the price. In the short term, the rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin. In the macro vacuum period, the futures price is likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore fundamentals are weak. The short - term ore price will operate within the shock range, with the lower limit between 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is considered that looking for a callback position to do a rebound may have a higher cost - performance ratio than continuing to short. The subsequent overseas situation will be a definite situation of both fiscal and monetary easing, and domestic demand - stimulating policies are still expected. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For polysilicon, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Be cautious about the authenticity of long and short news [16]. - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, and the downstream demand is average. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.263%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5166 tons to 90327 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 10693 lots to 1.857343 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12063 tons to 107606 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8957 lots to 1.302507 million lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coils had weak demand, could not absorb the production, and the inventory showed a counter - seasonal accumulation. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of hot - rolled coil inventory. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (- 1.50), and the positions decreased by 7106 lots to 494,100 lots. The weighted positions were 910,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.07% [4]. - The Simandou iron ore project was officially put into production on November 11, but it will take time to reach full production, and the increase is expected to be limited this year [4]. Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, and Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrivals decreased. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal production was 236.88 tons, up 2.66 tons. The increase mainly came from Hebei, with an increase in the utilization rate of some blast furnace capacities. The steel mill profitability continued to decline, and some regional steel mills started blast furnace annual inspections due to losses. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data was weak. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the short - term rebound in hot - metal production supports the demand for iron ore on the margin [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 13, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium to the futures price of 134 yuan/ton [7]. - The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.29% at 5506 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount to the futures price of 6 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - In November, the macro environment entered a relative vacuum period, and the pricing of the black sector returned to the fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trading in the black sector, but it was considered a temporary shock and emotional release with limited downside space. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for a callback position to do a rebound. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.54% (- 50). The weighted positions increased by 6269 lots to 418,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 205 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 195 yuan/ton [12]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 54195 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.37% (+ 735). The weighted positions increased by 2397 lots to 237,112 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, all unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 2045 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, in October, the production continued to increase. In November, the production in the southwest is expected to decline. The demand for polysilicon decreased, and the organic silicon production is expected to be stable. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [13]. - For polysilicon, in November, some production capacities started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline in the last two months. The downstream silicon wafer production is also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton, up 0 + 0.67% (+ 7). The North China large - plate price was 1110 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1140 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 57,921 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 52,810 short positions [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 2.06% (+ 25). The Shahe heavy - alkali price was 1194 yuan, up 30. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), including 907,100 tons of heavy - alkali inventory, up 75,000 tons, and 800,200 tons of light - alkali inventory, down 144,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 21,477 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 16,961 short positions [20]. Strategy Views - For glass, the current market has limited positive factors, the downstream support is insufficient, the production enterprise shipment pressure increases, and the short - term rebound momentum is insufficient with limited upside space [19]. - For soda ash, the current supply is relatively high, the downstream demand is average, especially the consumption of heavy - alkali is weak. Due to the industry - wide losses, some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices. The short - term price will continue the low - level shock pattern [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and steel consumption may gradually recover. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. In the short term, the price of iron ore will still run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [10]. - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm [13][15]. - For glass, the market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term. For soda ash, the industry supply is shrinking, the downstream demand is stable, but the price increase is limited by high inventory and weak demand. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,493 tons, a decrease of 5,119 tons from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.868036 million lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3255 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.400%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 95,543 tons, a decrease of 1,485 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.311464 million lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market warmed slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall; the demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and it was difficult to absorb the production, resulting in an inverse - seasonal inventory build - up. In general, the steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. Coupled with the expected recovery of manufacturing demand, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future. In the short term, affected by the cost side, the price center of finished products has slightly shifted down, and the demand is still weak, so the prices will continue the weak and volatile trend. However, with the implementation of policies and changes in the macro - environment, future demand is expected to turn around [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.44% (+11.00), and the position changed by - 29,119 lots to 501,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 924,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.44 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.13%. The Simandou Iron Ore Project was officially put into operation on November 11 [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume in the latest period continued to decline month - on - month. In the shipment end, the shipment volumes from Australia and Brazil continued to fall. Among the major mines, Vale and Rio Tinto contributed to the reduction. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output in the latest period according to the Steel Union's statistics was 234,220 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons month - on - month. The environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, contributing a large part of the maintenance volume. The profitability rate of steel mills reached a new low this year, with 60% of steel mills below the break - even point, and some steel mills increased maintenance. In the inventory end, the port inventory increased at a faster pace, and the steel mill inventory increased month - on - month. The terminal data was weak. Fundamentally, affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profitability, the pig iron output continued to decline, the demand for iron ore continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained. Macroscopically, the China - US summit in October and the Fed's interest rate meeting have both taken place. Overall, during the macro - vacuum period, the futures price trend is likely to follow the real - world logic. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the short - term price will still run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 12, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5762 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main silicon iron contract (SF601) closed up 0.04% at 5590 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price. On the daily - line level, the manganese silicon futures price was still in the oscillation range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, with no obvious directional trend. Currently, it is approaching the downward trend line since February this year. Attention should be paid to the support level around 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, the futures price was in the oscillation range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support level around 5400 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In October, the market was affected by many macro - events. In November, the macro - environment entered a relatively quiet period, and the pricing of the black - metal sector returned to fundamentals. This week, the pig iron output continued to decline, and the profitability rate of steel mills fell below 40%. The steel demand remained weak, especially the demand for plates declined significantly and started to build inventory again. Affected by multiple factors, the commodity sentiment that just showed signs of warming cooled down again. The market is trying to conduct "negative feedback" trading in the black - metal sector, but this is considered a temporary shock and emotional release, with limited downward space. For the future of the black - metal sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to buy for a rebound rather than shorting. The height after the rebound depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal and lack major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. If the commodity sentiment warms up and the black - metal sector strengthens, manganese ore may become the driving force for manganese silicon's market. If not, manganese silicon is expected to follow the black - metal sector. For silicon iron, its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and it has fluctuated with the cost of electricity recently, with a relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2601) closed at 9195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,588 lots to 412,146 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 155 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 245 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Yesterday, the price of industrial silicon declined during the day and then rebounded in the afternoon. In the short term, the price fluctuated. In October, the production of industrial silicon continued to increase. Although the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased during the dry season, the production in the northwest increased, offsetting the production decline caused by the dry season. It is expected that the production in the southwest will continue to decline in November. If the operating rate in the northwest stabilizes, the supply pressure may be relieved. In terms of demand, the production plan of polysilicon in November decreased, and some leading enterprises started maintenance, mainly in the southwest. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon weakened. The production of organosilicon is expected to be stable. The absolute value of the visible inventory is still high, but the marginal change is limited, and the marginal pressure on the price is small. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the cost support such as electricity and coal - coke is stable. It is expected that the price will consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the main polysilicon contract (PS2601) closed at 53,460 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.95% (+1530). The weighted contract position changed by +532 lots to 234,715 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, in November, some polysilicon production capacities started maintenance, and the production plan decreased to 120,000 tons, mainly in the southwest. The production in the last two months is expected to decline. The operating rate of downstream silicon wafers is also expected to decline slightly, and the production is expected to decrease month - on - month compared with October. In the future, with a significant reduction in supply, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The price of second - and third - tier silicon wafer enterprises has loosened, which has a negative impact on the upstream price, especially when there is no actual progress in the platform company and stockpiling. The futures price has adjusted periodically. Future attention should be paid to whether the upstream futures and spot prices can remain firm. Currently, both long and short news about stockpiling and the platform company can easily affect the futures price, causing rapid declines or increases. Attention should be paid to distinguishing the authenticity and using position control to manage risks [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 1.50% (-16). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1140 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million cases, a decrease of 2.654 million cases (-4.03%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 19,034 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 625 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, the float glass market lacks strong support from the supply - demand fundamentals. As the optimistic sentiment brought by the production line shutdown in Shahe is gradually digested by the market, downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the production - sales ratio in some areas has slowed down. Although the supply in some regions has shrunk due to environmental protection policies, the impact on the overall supply - demand structure is limited. At the same time, the cost support for the price is continuously weakening, and the production profit of enterprises is generally under pressure. The market sentiment is generally pessimistic. In general, it is expected that the price will remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1215 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (-11). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1164 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (4.03%) from the previous week, including 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 13,200 tons, and 814,600 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 1000 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 2689 lots today, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 19,653 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Currently, some soda ash enterprises are reducing production, and Chongqing Heyou Industrial plans to shut down soon. The overall industry supply is shrinking. The downstream demand is stable, but the market transactions are mainly for low - price goods. The order - receiving situation of soda ash manufacturers is generally good. Affected by the shortage of some light soda ash in the Middle East, the price of new orders has increased. However, due to the high inventory and weak demand, the price increase space is still limited. It is expected that the market will be influenced by both long and short factors in the short term, and the price may continue to fluctuate [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The steel mills are suffering losses and reducing production, and the futures market is experiencing a negative feedback loop [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Plate Performance Comparison - Last week, the black plate declined collectively, with iron ore leading the decline, dropping about 5% week-on-week. The strength relationship among varieties was coke > coking coal > hot-rolled coil > rebar > iron ore [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The performance of different futures was differentiated, with black and energy-chemical futures being relatively weak [8] 03 Spot Prices - Coking coal and coke prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [15] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills decreased significantly, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [16] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and the inventory depletion slowed down [18] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals increased significantly month-on-month, and port inventories rebounded [27] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production decreased slightly, and inventories shifted downstream [33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and inventories were depleted again [35] 09 Variety Spreads - The futures profit continued to decline, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar remained stable [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - On November 3, the Ministry of Finance established a new Debt Management Department. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the United States. The "China's Actions for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" white paper was released. Various economic data such as trade, employment, and reserves were announced, and OPEC+ made production adjustment decisions [42]

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 淵時 | | RB05 | 3104 | 3101 | 3 | HC05-RB05 | 132 | 133 | -1 | | RB10 | 3144 | 3149 | -5 | HC10-RB10 | 123 | 116 | 7 | | RB01 | 3047 | 3045 | 2 | HC01-RB01 | 172 | 170 | 2 | | RB01-RB05 | -57 | -56 | -1 | RB10-RB01 | 97 | 104 | -7 | | RB05-RB10 | -40 | -48 | 8 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -143 | -161 | 18 | RB05/105 | 4.14 | 4.15 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend. Steel mills continued to cut production, and steel demand improved slightly due to temperature drops. However, the high production of hot - rolled coils led to inventory accumulation, while rebar started to reduce inventory. The black metal sector was under pressure due to news and fundamentals, but steel prices had low valuations, and there was still some support at the bottom. The market should continue to monitor coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3101 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 3149 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and RB01 at 3045 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 was - 161 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 117 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 182 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, Shandong Shiheng, and Tangshan Tanggang remained stable or changed slightly. The profit of rebar in different regions varied, with Tangshan rebar profit increasing by 12 yuan/ton to - 333 yuan/ton, while Shandong rebar profit decreased by 91 yuan/ton to - 580 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3234 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), HC10 at 3265 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and HC01 at 3215 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 1 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 12 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coils changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions also changed, with East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 30 yuan/ton to - 196 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan, Beijing Jingye was 3100 yuan (up 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan (up 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: The market will maintain a bottom - volatile trend [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Important Information**: - From January to September, the housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of newly - built commercial housing also decreased [10]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349 million tons (down 4.6% year - on - year), pig iron output was 6605 million tons (down 2.4% year - on - year), and steel output was 12421 million tons (up 5.1% year - on - year) [11][13]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provided multiple charts, including those showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [17][21][27].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. Short - term hot metal production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, the iron ore price has support. It is necessary to continue observing the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [5]. - The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, in the future, the black sector may gradually become cost - effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in supply - demand fundamentals and policies [12][14]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to remain in a volatile range, with limited price fluctuations [17][19]. Group 3: Summary of Each Category Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar主力 contract in the afternoon was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.409%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 21,922 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 109,368 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin increased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: Rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, overall demand is weak, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力 contract was 3380 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.177%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 30,384 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. The overall demand is weak, although it has some resilience [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The closing price of the iron ore主力 contract (I2601) was 808.50 yuan/ton, up 0.12% (+1.00). The open interest decreased by 12,497 lots to 562,000 lots. The weighted open interest was 876,700 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.88% [4]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, near - end arrivals increased, hot metal production increased, and steel mill profitability decreased. Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill imports increased. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Market Information**: After the release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon futures declined. The manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) closed down 1.58% at 5870 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) closed down 1.53% at 5648 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the trend of the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8950 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (-355). The weighted open interest decreased by 34,046 lots to 519,726 lots. In the现货 market, the price of 553 in East China increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 also increased by 100 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the price has an upward space, it needs fundamental improvement. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (-1710). The weighted open interest increased by 6275 lots to 279,396 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material in the现货 market remained unchanged [13]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policies. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [14]. Glass - **Market Information**: The glass主力 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.40% (-17). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 675,000 cases (-1.10%) [16]. - **Strategy View**: Terminal demand is weak, supply is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The soda ash主力 contract closed at 1293 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.90% (-25). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 41,900 tons (-1.10%) [18]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. Production is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]