Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. Short - term hot metal production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, the iron ore price has support. It is necessary to continue observing the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [5]. - The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, in the future, the black sector may gradually become cost - effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in supply - demand fundamentals and policies [12][14]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to remain in a volatile range, with limited price fluctuations [17][19]. Group 3: Summary of Each Category Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar主力 contract in the afternoon was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.409%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 21,922 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 109,368 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin increased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: Rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, overall demand is weak, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力 contract was 3380 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.177%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 30,384 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy View**: Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. The overall demand is weak, although it has some resilience [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The closing price of the iron ore主力 contract (I2601) was 808.50 yuan/ton, up 0.12% (+1.00). The open interest decreased by 12,497 lots to 562,000 lots. The weighted open interest was 876,700 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.88% [4]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, near - end arrivals increased, hot metal production increased, and steel mill profitability decreased. Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill imports increased. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Market Information**: After the release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon futures declined. The manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) closed down 1.58% at 5870 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) closed down 1.53% at 5648 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the trend of the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8950 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (-355). The weighted open interest decreased by 34,046 lots to 519,726 lots. In the现货 market, the price of 553 in East China increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 also increased by 100 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the price has an upward space, it needs fundamental improvement. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (-1710). The weighted open interest increased by 6275 lots to 279,396 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material in the现货 market remained unchanged [13]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policies. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [14]. Glass - **Market Information**: The glass主力 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.40% (-17). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 675,000 cases (-1.10%) [16]. - **Strategy View**: Terminal demand is weak, supply is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The soda ash主力 contract closed at 1293 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.90% (-25). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 41,900 tons (-1.10%) [18]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. Production is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with potential for price increases if downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October. The black - metal sector is supported by the approaching peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling [4]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term volatility adjustment is expected, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, despite potential recovery in domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [13]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade at the bottom, with silicon iron and manganese silicon both showing bottom - oscillating trends [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a 12.3% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a 2.5% increase; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a 1.6% decrease; and color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a 3.2% decrease. As of September 18, the total volume of overhauled blast furnaces in 16 sample steel mills in Shanxi was 2010m³, with an overhaul volume ratio of 4.7%, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 12.3% higher than the same period last year [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar was 3240 yuan (- 20), and in Beijing, it was 3170 yuan (- 20). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3420 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, it was 3340 yuan (-) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile at night. Iron - water production increased slightly this week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. Due to losses, EAF production decreased, and long - process production lines also switched production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other varieties continued to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the reduction in rebar production led to inventory depletion, while other varieties accumulated inventory. Steel demand is expected to recover slightly next week, and the black - metal sector is supported by the peak season and pre - holiday stockpiling [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel prices will be volatile and bullish. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options on RB01 [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a 44,000 - ton increase. The raw - coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase, and the clean - coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from last week [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Coking coal and coke were volatile at night. The coking coal spot market sentiment is good, with prices rising and auction flow rates decreasing. Downstream enterprises will stockpile raw materials before the National Day, supporting spot prices. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term volatility adjustment, mid - term buying on dips. Arbitrage: Enter the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal on dips. Options: Hold. Futures - cash: Hold [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale. On September 18, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore was narrowly volatile at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. Iron - ore prices may face pressure at high levels [13]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not fully provided in the report, but the analyst's information is given [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 18th, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.02%) at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree. Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese - ore shipping price to China [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Silicon - iron spot prices were stable on the 18th. Supply rumors were false, and supply remained high. Demand was supported by steel production. Manganese - silicon spot prices were stable, with alloy - factory production increasing slightly. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, but cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore [16]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating. Arbitrage: Hold. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations on rallies [17][19].

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 09 月 17 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3237 | 3236 | 1 | HC05-RB05 | 162 | 174 | -12 | | RB10 | 3074 | 3069 | 5 | HC10-RB10 | 350 | 364 | -14 | | RB01 | 3168 | 3166 | 2 | HC01-RB01 | 222 | 236 | -14 | | RB01-RB05 | -69 | -70 | 1 | RB10-RB01 | - 04 | -97 | 3 | | RB05-RB10 | 163 | 167 | -4 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -85 | -90 | 5 | RB05/105 | 4.14 | 4.14 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, the focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline during the peak season, but concerns remain due to the real - estate market's slow recovery. Technically, both rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the Bollinger Bands' lower support, possibly opening a downward space [2]. - For the iron ore market, although the iron ore trend is the strongest among the black series due to potential growth in steel mill's molten iron production after the parade, the upward space is limited as the molten iron output is already high and terminal demand is not optimistic. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season. Technically, the 01 contract shows a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Focus**: The market is now focused on verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonal patterns suggest that demand should rise and inventory fall during the peak season, but the real - estate market's slow recovery may lead to lower - than - expected demand [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production increased, apparent demand slightly rose, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week. Total production of the five major varieties increased, total inventory rose, and apparent demand also increased. After the parade, production is expected to further increase [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, potentially opening a downward space [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short positions can be held [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - Rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous day and 23 yuan (-0.73%) from last week [3]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points from last week [3]. -全国建材钢厂螺纹钢产量 was 220.56 tons, up 5.91 tons (2.75%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. After the parade, there is potential for an increase in molten iron production, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract oscillates around the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily K - line, with the overall Bollinger Bands' opening narrowing. It has a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - 麦克粉（青岛港） was priced at 750 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan (-2.09%) from the previous day and the same from last week [4]. - 澳大利亚铁矿石发货量 was 1640.9 tons, down 78.1 tons (-4.54%) from last week [4]. - 北方六港到货量合计 was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons (12.82%) from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From August 25th to 31st, 2025, the total iron ore arrival at 45 ports in China was 2526.0 tons, a 132.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The arrival at the six northern ports was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons [6]. - As of the week ending August 31st, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 tons, a 241.0 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 tons, up 141.7 tons [7]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan area plan to stop production on September 2nd and resume on September 4th. The total approved production capacity of the affected mines is 790 tons, with an estimated impact on daily raw coal production of about 2.52 tons [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on September 1st after a 5 - day shutdown. The approved production capacity of this mine is 240 tons, and the total affected raw coal production during the shutdown was 4 tons [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in chemical coke and manganese ore prices are impacting the cost structure and market performance of manganese silicon production, with expectations of significant price volatility in the near future [1] Price Changes and Cost Analysis - Chemical coke prices increased by 100 yuan/ton, while port manganese ore prices saw a slight uptick, leading to higher immediate costs [1] - Estimated production costs as of July 25 are approximately 5710 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5800 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (with a loss of about 100 yuan/ton), and 6460 yuan/ton in Guangxi (with a loss of about 740 yuan/ton) [1] - Actual costs in production areas may be reduced by 100-200 yuan/ton due to adjustments in manganese ore ratios and tail gas power generation [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From July 19 to July 24, Tianjin Port received 451,924 tons of manganese ore, with a slight inventory increase of 989.7 tons, totaling 3,336,474 tons, which is below expectations [1] - Anticipated arrivals from July 25 to July 31 are 607,041 tons, with an estimated inventory increase of 100,000 to 200,000 tons based on typical outflow rates [1] - National daily production of silicon manganese as of July 25 is reported at 26,640 tons, with increases noted in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan [1] Market Pricing and Export Data - Hebei Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,850 yuan/ton for July, with the first round of inquiries at 5,600 yuan/ton and a purchase volume of 14,600 tons, an increase from June [1] - In June 2025, China exported 1,151.6 tons of silicon manganese alloy and imported 685.73 tons [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The black metal sector is experiencing upward pressure due to rising coking coal prices, while manganese silicon prices have shown mixed reactions, with significant inflows of capital observed [1] - The market is currently driven more by speculative factors rather than fundamental changes, with profit margins encouraging manufacturers and traders to hedge [1] - The overall market sentiment remains uncertain, with expectations of significant price fluctuations for manganese silicon on July 28, necessitating caution among investors [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly stronger. Supply disruptions persist, and the futures market is in a volatile adjustment phase. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the July production in Shanxi coal mines [1][5] - For coke, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly weaker. With the potential increase in coking coal production after the end of the safety production month, cost - side supply disruptions re - emerge. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the actual production of coking coal [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after safety inspections, causing concerns about supply. In the week of June 27, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons and 3.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4,207 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 374 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 701.2 vehicles [5] - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [5] Coke - **Supply**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons. After the fourth price cut on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton, and the production expansion enthusiasm was average [8] - **Demand**: In the week of June 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-26 炉料表现好于成材 昨⽇双焦延续⼩幅反弹态势，铁矿在700附近震荡，钢材相对偏弱。 ⿊⾊板块处于真空期，能交易的驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯淡季钢材现 货市场需求有承压趋势，供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，因此市场对后市库存 ⾛势偏悲观。整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震荡盘整阶段，关注钢材库存压 ⼒能否积累。 ⿊⾊：炉料表现好于成材 昨日双焦延续小幅反弹态势，铁矿在700附近震荡，钢材相对偏弱。 黑色板块处于真空期，能交易的驱动非常有限。产业方面淡季钢材现 货市场需求有承压趋势，供应端铁水高位回升，因此市场对后市库存 走势偏悲观。整体而言，盘面仍处于震荡盘整阶段，关注钢材库存压 力能否积累。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] - Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are all rated as "oscillation" [8][9][11][13][14][16][18] Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro factors have limited impact on the black sector currently. The demand for hot - rolled coils is recovering, while the demand for rebar is seasonally declining. The supply of molten iron is rising from a high level. The overall supply and demand are both strengthening month - on - month, and there is no inventory pressure for now. However, the market's outlook for the future remains pessimistic, worried about the weakening of plate demand, and the resilience of exports needs to be observed. Overall, the driving force is limited [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is judged that the ore price will oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline in production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses for coke enterprises. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material restocking is not high, and the upstream inventory level of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, with no obvious improvement in the inventory structure. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, the price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3] Alloys - The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. On the supply side, some factories have plans to resume production, and a factory in Inner Mongolia has a new production capacity launch plan in the second half of the month. Silicomanganese production is expected to continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the sentiment in the manganese ore market has improved. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate. Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and the price lacks upward momentum [3][6] Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand is continuing to weaken month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price is falling, and the production and sales are still weak. On the supply side, one production line is planned to be shut down for water - cooling maintenance due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the mid - stream inventory has continued to decline, with repeated mood swings. Attention should be paid to the price cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [6][14] Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the overseas war situation is undetermined. The rise in oil prices has driven the sentiment in the commodity market to improve, and the macro - environment is slightly positive. On the demand side, the demand for the five major steel products has recovered month - on - month this week, with a significant month - on - month increase in the demand for hot - rolled coils and a month - on - month decrease in the demand for rebar. On the supply side, molten iron production is oscillating at a high level, and steel production has increased slightly this week, mainly due to the increase in rebar and wire rod production. This week, the overall supply and demand have both strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is mainly suppressed by the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to whether domestic demand can continue to maintain inventory reduction. In the short term, steel prices are expected to oscillate [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotation rose by 0 - 2 yuan/ton yesterday, and port transactions decreased slightly. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Recently, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel enterprises on the demand side and their maintenance plans. The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The overall contradiction is not obvious. It is judged that the possibility of a significant decline is small, and the ore price is expected to oscillate [8] Scrap Steel - As the building material off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market's expectation of off - season demand is pessimistic and difficult to reverse in the short term, putting pressure on the futures price. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume increased slightly this week. Due to the low base in the same period last year, the overall arrival volume is slightly higher year - on - year. On the demand side, recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure and declining, while the decline of scrap steel is relatively small. Electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours, and the daily consumption has decreased slightly. The molten iron production of blast furnaces has increased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has also increased. In terms of inventory, although the arrival volume increased slightly, the daily consumption increased, and the factory inventory still decreased, with the absolute level at a high level in the same period. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, the price of finished products is under pressure, and electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9] Coke - The supply - demand pattern of coke is slightly loose, and the fourth round of price cuts is expected to start this week. The spot quotation is mainly weakly stable. On the supply side, some coke enterprises have reduced their production levels due to environmental protection, shipment, and loss pressure, and the overall coke production has decreased. However, in the off - season, downstream steel mills have sufficient raw material inventory and low enthusiasm for restocking, so the inventory reduction pressure on coke enterprises still exists. On the demand side, molten iron production is still at a relatively high level, but the terminal steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of a decline in molten iron production in the future. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the support of demand for the coke price. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is weakening, and the upward space for the coke price is limited. The coking coal price is under pressure, the cost support for coke is limited, and the downstream rigid demand tends to decline. The coke price still has downward pressure [9][11] Coking Coal - After the coking coal price dropped to a low level, the recent market trading situation has improved, but the release of downstream restocking demand is limited, and the intermediate links are still mainly in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, affected by factors such as environmental inspections and underground problems, the number of recently shut - down coal mines has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the contraction amplitude of the overall market supply is relatively limited. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and coke enterprises are expected to further reduce their production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, the raw material restocking intensity of coke enterprises is average, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the current supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the de - stocking pressure on mines still exists. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase. The market's supply - demand loose pattern has not been reversed, and the high upstream inventory suppresses the increase of the coking coal price [13] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, for some manganese ore types such as Gabon lumps and Australian lumps, the circulating resources are in short supply, and the arrival cost is inverted. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, the market inquiry activity has increased, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. The transaction price has increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. On the supply side, there are few operating factories in Guizhou. In Yunnan, the electricity cost will drop to about 0.37 yuan in July, and some factories have plans to resume production. In Guilin, Guangxi, the incremental electricity cost will be suspended at the end of the month, and some factories are expected to shut down for maintenance. A new alloy submerged arc furnace has been ignited in Inner Mongolia, with a daily production of about 200 tons. There are still situations of resuming production and adding new production capacity in the north. Constrained by the cost inversion, manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, the black market has entered the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong mentality of pressing prices. The silicomanganese pricing of HBIS Group in June is 5,650 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry price is 5,500 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose. However, factories are facing cost inversion and have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [16] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, the semi - coke market is stable. In Shenmu, the price of small - sized semi - coke is about 575 - 610 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. On the demand side, steel tenders have increased centralized procurement. The tender quantity of HBIS Group for ferrosilicon in June is 2,200 tons, and the tender price is 5,500 yuan/ton. Affected by the rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The magnesium metal market is driven by short - term market transactions, and the price is running strongly. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap tends to be filled. The upward space for the futures market is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to steel tender situations and production situations. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [18]