Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The raw material sector of rebar and hot-rolled coil has high sentiment and will experience wide fluctuations [2][4]. - The silicon iron and manganese silicon sectors have resonance in sentiment, with silicon iron showing a relatively strong oscillation and manganese silicon having high bullish sentiment and a relatively strong oscillation [2][8]. - The coke and coking coal markets have fermented sentiment and will oscillate with a bullish bias [2][11]. - The sentiment of thermal coal is strong, and port transactions are moving upward [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,123 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.26%; the closing price of HC2605 was not provided. The trading volume of RB2605 was 724,139 lots, the position was 1,387,220 lots, and the position change was -62,026 lots. The trading volume of HC2605 was 276,514 lots, the position was 1,098,203 lots, and the position change was -44,974 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 19, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 8.03 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.95 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 18.85 tons; the total inventory of rebar decreased by 4.76 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 10.3 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 28.66 tons; the apparent demand of rebar increased by 31.28 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 15.5 tons, and the total increased by 70.4 tons [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0 [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of silicon iron 2605 was 5,932 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; the closing price of silicon iron 2607 was 6,046 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of manganese silicon 2605 was 6,400 yuan/ton, up 212 yuan; the closing price of manganese silicon 2607 was 6,430 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 20, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5,450 - 5,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), in Qinghai was 5,450 - 5,550 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5,500 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5,500 - 5,600 yuan/ton; the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 6,050 - 6,100 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 6,000 - 6,050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1,140 - 1,160 US dollars/ton (up 20 US dollars), and the FOB price of 75 silicon iron was 1,160 - 1,180 US dollars/ton (up 10 US dollars). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5,850 - 5,900 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese silicon is 1 [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,171 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan or 1.0%; the closing price of J2605 was 1,740.5 yuan/ton, up 19.5 yuan or 1.1%. The trading volume of JM2605 was 753,774 lots, the position was 384,256 lots, and the position change was -7,338 lots. The trading volume of J2605 was 14,432 lots, the position was 31,289 lots, and the position change was not provided [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resources Network showed that the CCI Shanxi low-sulfur main coking coal S0.7 was 1,451 yuan/ton, the CCI Shanxi medium-sulfur main coking coal S1.3 was 1,260 yuan/ton, and the CCI Shanxi high-sulfur main coking coal S1.6 was 1,254 yuan/ton. The on-line auction of coking coal in the production area on March 20 had a total listing volume of 17.4 tons, a non - successful bid rate of 3% (up 3% from the previous day), and an average premium of 48.92 yuan/ton [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [13]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 was 585 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 was 528 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price of Shaanxi Yulin 5800 was 599 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 was 735 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Q5000 was 652 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Q4500 was 572 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 20, the port thermal coal market maintained a strong trend. Due to the rising coal mine prices, the cost of traders increased, and the quotes were firm. The non - power demand from downstream cement and chemical industries increased significantly, supporting the upward movement of the market transaction center. From January to February 2026, the national raw coal production was 76,289 tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at Beigang) is 1 [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black commodity sector will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak-season demand." In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price and basis are 95, indicating a bullish signal [1] - For hot-rolled coil, the spot price is 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis is -19, indicating a bearish signal [2] Profit and Cost - Not provided Capacity and Inventory - For rebar, the supply is continuously recovering, and both steel mill and social inventories are accumulating. The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, showing a month-on-month and year-on-year increase, indicating a bearish signal [1] - For hot-rolled coil, the social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory pressure is particularly prominent. The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, showing a month-on-month and year-on-year increase, indicating a bearish signal [2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - Not provided Hot-Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The recovery strength of downstream consumption is still insufficient to digest the high-level inventory, indicating a bearish signal [2] Macro - Not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash [1][2] - **Bullish**: Coke, Coking Coal, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Demand is still weak year - on - year, iron - water production is rising month - on - month and higher than the same period in previous years. The overall supply - demand of steel is loose. Weak reality suppresses the market, but rising crude oil prices due to the US - Iran conflict support short - term strength [1][5][6]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory is at a high absolute level, supply - demand changes follow seasonal patterns, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. Weak reality suppresses the mid - term market, but rising crude oil prices drive a short - term rebound [1][5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has dropped significantly, port inventories have accumulated, and steel mills are consuming inventory and purchasing on demand. Supply is expected to shrink this period, and the fundamentals are improving. Tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of iron ore negotiations between China and Australia are driving up prices [1][9]. - **Coke**: Except for some coke enterprises in Hebei being restricted in production, the operation in other regions is stable. During the Two Sessions, steel mills restricted blast furnace production, leading to a significant short - term drop in iron - water production. Steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts and have low restocking willingness. Price may strengthen under the transmission of commodity sentiment [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mines are resuming production intensively, and the daily average output of mines is rising month - on - month. Iron - water production has dropped significantly, and downstream restocking willingness is low. Overall supply - demand is becoming looser, and prices are expected to strengthen in the short term due to the transmission of sentiment under rising international crude oil prices [1][15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The production area's operating rate remains low, demand is increasing month - on - month, and inventory is decreasing month - on - month. Some mainstream manganese mines' April quotes continue to rise, providing strong cost support. The fundamentals are gradually improving, and price is driven by commodity sentiment and its own low valuation [1][18][19]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the production area is decreasing month - on - month, demand is increasing month - on - month, and inventory is decreasing month - on - month. A new round of steel tenders is starting, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are limited, and price is driven by commodity sentiment and its own low valuation [1][18][19]. - **Glass**: The real - estate policy orientation remains the same. Production enterprises are in the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage, and the current fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. High inventory needs further supply reduction to be digested. Rising crude oil prices support the commodity as a whole, and there may be a short - term rebound [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The real - estate demand is weak, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. Rising energy prices increase the overall cost, and there may be a short - term rebound [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety Rebar - **Price Information**: Futures prices of Rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3131, 3071, and 3100 respectively, with changes of - 1, - 3, and - 5. Spot prices in different regions range from 2910 to 3400. The basis and spreads also show different changes [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply - demand is loose, and short - term strength is supported by rising crude oil prices [1][5][6]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: Futures prices of Hot Rolled Coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3253, 3212, and 3232 respectively, with changes of 8, - 7, and - 6. Spot prices in different regions range from 3140 to 3290. The basis and spreads also show different changes [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Production and demand are stable, inventory is high, and short - term rebound is driven by rising crude oil prices [1][5][6]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Futures prices of Iron Ore 01, 05, and 09 are 718, 752, and 732 respectively, with a change of - 2 for each. Various spot prices and spreads also show different changes [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to shrink, and the fundamentals are improving. Tensions in the Middle East and negotiation escalation are driving up prices [1][9]. Coke - **Price Information**: Futures prices of Coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1840.0, 1676.5, and 1745.0 respectively, with corresponding changes. Spot prices in different places remain stable. Various production, inventory, and profit data also show different changes [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is stable except in some areas, demand is weak during the Two Sessions, and price is expected to strengthen under sentiment transmission [1][12]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Futures prices of Coking Coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1401.0, 1105.5, and 1200.0 respectively, with corresponding changes. Spot prices in different places show different trends. Various production, inventory, and other data also show different changes [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and short - term strength is expected due to sentiment transmission [1][15]. Manganese Silicon - **Price Information**: Futures prices of Manganese Silicon 01, 05, and 09 are 6186, 6092, and 6138 respectively, with corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions and basis, spreads also show different changes [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Operating rate is low, demand is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and cost support is strong [1][18][19]. Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Futures prices of Ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 2838, 5828, and 5878 respectively, with corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions and basis, spreads also show different changes [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and a new round of steel tenders is starting [1][18][19]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and short - term rebound is supported by rising crude oil prices [1]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Demand is weak, cost is rising, and short - term rebound is possible [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" aims to optimize the city's real estate policies by reducing housing purchase restrictions and increasing financial support for homebuyers, thereby stimulating market demand and stabilizing expectations in the real estate sector [1][2]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy allows non-Shanghai residents who have paid social insurance or individual income tax for at least one year to purchase unlimited housing outside the outer ring and one unit within the inner ring. Those with three years of contributions can buy two units in the inner ring, while holders of a Shanghai residence permit for over five years can buy one unit citywide [1]. - The policy also raises the public housing fund loan limit for first-time buyers to 2.4 million yuan, with a maximum of 3.24 million yuan, and optimizes loan conditions to alleviate financial pressure on families [1]. Market Impact - The announcement is expected to boost housing transactions during the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," with the real estate sector and related industries, such as steel, experiencing significant stock price increases [2][3]. - The real estate sector accounts for approximately 25% of domestic steel consumption, making it a crucial demand driver for the black metal sector [3]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of February 23, 2026, social steel inventory was reported at 10.52 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, while member companies of the China Iron and Steel Association reported a steel inventory of 15.11 million tons, down 6.8% year-on-year [4]. - The reduction in high furnace loads in northern steel mills due to environmental regulations is expected to lead to a decrease in daily iron output, coinciding with the seasonal increase in downstream demand [5]. Future Outlook - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a stable demand environment as the policy effects take time to materialize. The focus will be on the sales data for March and April to determine if the anticipated demand growth is realized [6]. - The steel market is expected to maintain a strong performance due to cost support from supply constraints, although the potential for significant price increases will depend on the speed of demand recovery [6].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The current supply - demand contradiction in the coal and coke market is general, with little inventory pressure, which supports prices to some extent. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward drive, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment changes [4] Group 3 Market Performance - Coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly, rising for two consecutive days, and opened and closed higher at night. In the spot market, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions implemented the first round of coking price increases, while the coking coal market prices were generally weak and stable [3] Driving Factors - India declared coking coal as a key strategic mineral. As a country with continuous growth in the steel industry and high dependence on coking coal imports, it is expected to remain a key driver of global coking coal demand. News about real - estate policies stimulated the stock market's real - estate sector, and the continuous rise of precious and non - ferrous metal prices created a positive atmosphere for the strength of black - series futures [3] Fundamental Situation - Near the Spring Festival, coal production decreased slightly this week due to safety inspections and other factors, with raw coal and clean coal production at 1.978 million tons and 771,000 tons respectively. It is expected that coal mines will start to have holidays on February 5, with an average of 10.1 days, similar to last year. The planned production cuts involve about 744 million tons of production capacity, affecting 18.68 million tons of raw coal output. The expected reduction in coal supply supports coal prices, but the production cuts are in line with past years' patterns, and downstream industries have stocked up in advance [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Long - term**: The steel market maintains a weak balance between supply and demand, with limited inventory pressure, but weak real - estate data drags down demand. Iron ore overseas supply continues to shrink, and the inventory is transferred from ports to steel mills. The long - term prices of steel and iron ore are under pressure. The glass market has a weak fundamental pattern, and the long - term price is also under pressure. The soda ash supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high supply and inventory accumulation [78][82] - **Short - term**: Rebar and iron ore show a short - term oscillating trend. Glass and soda ash may rebound with macro - sentiment in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [79][83] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: From January 16 to January 23, 2026, the closing prices of most black - series futures contracts decreased. For example, the RB2605 rebar contract decreased from 3163 to 3142, a decrease of 21 with a decline rate of 1%. The HC2605 hot - rolled coil contract decreased from 3315 to 3305, a decrease of 10 with a decline rate of 0%. The I2605 iron ore contract decreased from 812 to 795, a decrease of 17 with a decline rate of 2%. The J2605 coke contract increased from 1717 to 1722, an increase of 5 with an increase rate of 0%. The JM2605 coking coal contract decreased from 1171 to 1157, a decrease of 14 with a decline rate of 1%. The FG605 glass contract decreased from 1103 to 1064, a decrease of 39 with a decline rate of 4%. The SA605 soda ash contract increased from 1192 to 1198, an increase of 6 with an increase rate of 1% [3] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices and basis of each variety are also provided. For example, the rebar spot price is 3270, and the basis is 128; the hot - rolled coil spot price is 3290, and the basis is - 15 [3] - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On January 22, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 65 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Rebar - **Supply Side**: As of January 23, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons; the rebar output was 199.55 tons, an increase of 9.25 tons [13] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 23, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 185.52 tons, a decrease of 4.82 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 71531 tons [19] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 303.12 tons, an increase of 7.71 tons compared with the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 148.98 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons compared with the previous week [24] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 16, the global iron ore shipment volume was reported at 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 251 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2897.7 tons, a decrease of 117.3 tons compared with the previous week [29] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 17496.53 tons, an increase of 207.83 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9388.82 tons, an increase of 126.6 tons compared with the previous week [34] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 23, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 320.5 tons, a decrease of 14.5 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was reported at 91.3 tons [39] 3.4 Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 23, the number of operating float glass production lines was reported at 212, the same as the previous week; the weekly output was reported at 1055215 tons, an increase of 2900 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 75.57%, and the operating rate was reported at 71.62% [44] - **Inventory**: In the week of January 23, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 5321.58 million weight - boxes, an increase of 20.28 million weight - boxes compared with the previous week; the available days of in - plant inventory were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 days compared with the previous week [49] - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 16, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 9.3 days [53] - **Production Profit**: In the week of January 23, the production gross profit of the float process using coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the production gross profit using petroleum coke as fuel was - 778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the production gross profit using natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [57] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 23, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 86.42%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was reported at 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons compared with the previous week [60] - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 152.12 tons, a decrease of 5.38 tons compared with the previous week [65] - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: As of January 23, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was reported at 106.98%, an increase of 7.28 percentage points compared with the previous week [70] - **Enterprise Profit**: As of January 22, the profit of ammonia - soda enterprises was reported at - 23 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the profit of combined - soda enterprises was reported at - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [74]

Group 1: Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3111 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 13,300 contracts [3][12] - Spot prices for rebar and related products have slightly decreased, with Tangshan's price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 2930 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's price also down by 20 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton [3][12] - A significant explosion at a large steel mill has led to expectations of production halts for up to three months, contributing to a decrease in daily average pig iron production by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons [3][12] Group 2: Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 789.5 CNY/ton, down 4.5 CNY/ton or 0.57%, with a trading volume of 360,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 30,000 contracts [3][12] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased, particularly from Australia and Brazil, while other countries have seen slight increases, leading to an overall decline in supply [3][12] - Iron water production has decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons, contributing to rising port and steel mill inventories [3][12] Group 3: Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1124 CNY/ton, down 50.5 CNY/ton or 4.3%, with an increase in open interest by 29,998 contracts [5][14] - The supply of coking coal remains stable, with increased production from coal mines and improved shipment rates, while demand from steel companies has shown a slight slowdown [5][14] - The price of certain coal products has varied, with some increasing while others have decreased, indicating mixed market conditions [5][14] Group 4: Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1673.5 CNY/ton, down 47.5 CNY/ton or 2.76%, with an increase in open interest by 792 contracts [6][15] - The current supply of coke is stable, with production levels remaining consistent, but demand from steel mills has decreased due to seasonal factors [6][15] - The price of coke in the spot market has also seen a decline, with the price at Rizhao Port dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 1450 CNY/ton [6][15] Group 5: Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5760 CNY/ton, down 0.89%, with a decrease in open interest by 13,668 contracts to 215,200 contracts [7][16] - Prices in various regions have decreased, with Inner Mongolia down by 20 CNY/ton and Ningxia down by 30 CNY/ton [7][16] - The overall market sentiment is weak, influenced by declining prices in the black metal sector, particularly for coking coal and coke [7][16] Group 6: Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5552 CNY/ton, down 0.07%, with an increase in open interest by 15,954 contracts to 245,600 contracts [8][17] - The export volume of silicon iron has increased by 7.6% month-on-month, but the annual cumulative export has decreased by 8.15% [8][17] - The supply of silicon iron remains stable, with production at a five-year low, while demand from steel mills is limited [8][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Long - term**: For rebar, the cost side is frequently disturbed, the supply has been increasing, the apparent demand has been declining, and the weak pattern is hard to change; for iron ore, the supply is loose, the downstream hot metal production has bottomed out, and it will mainly fluctuate. For glass, the number of production lines and weekly output are decreasing, and the weak pattern is hard to change; for soda ash, the industry profit is declining, the market start - up is increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly [65][69]. - **Short - term**: Rebar and iron ore will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term with room for correction; glass and soda ash will maintain a weak pattern and continue to fluctuate at a low level [66][70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Price Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures main contracts all increased, with increases of 1%, 1%, 3%, 3%, 7%, 5%, and 2% respectively [3]. - **Rebar**: On January 8, the rebar blast furnace profit was 68 yuan/ton [7]. Rebar - **Supply Side**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a 0.37 - percentage - point increase; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, a 2070 - ton increase; the rebar output was 191,040 tons, a 2820 - ton increase [12]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 9, the apparent consumption of rebar was 174,960 tons, a 25,480 - ton decrease; as of January 8, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 83,801 tons [17]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the social inventory of rebar was 290,180 tons, a 7520 - ton decrease; the in - factory inventory was 147,930 tons, an 8560 - ton increase [22]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 2, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2137 million tons, a 463,400 - ton decrease; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.8247 million tons, a 96,900 - ton increase [27]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17.04444 million tons, a 322,650 - ton increase; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98959 million tons, a 43,050 - ton increase [32]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 9, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 336,960 tons, a 3250 - ton decrease; as of January 8, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 103,000 tons [37]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 9, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 212, a decrease of 2; the weekly output was 1,059,245 tons, a decrease of 14,130 tons; as of January 8, the capacity utilization rate was 75%, and the operating rate was 71.38% [42]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the in - factory inventory of float glass was 55.518 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million weight - boxes; the available days of in - factory inventory were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days [45]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 4, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 8.6 days [49]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 9, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.39%, a 4.43 - percentage - point increase; the output was 75,360 tons, a 5650 - ton increase [52]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157,270 tons, a 16,440 - ton increase [57]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of January 9, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a 26.15 - percentage - point decrease [61].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering steel products, iron ore, glass, and soda ash, with data from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the medium to long - term, the steel industry's prosperity is declining, with weakening demand for rebar and downward pressure on iron ore futures prices. Glass and soda ash also face challenges, with limited upward momentum for glass and weak demand for soda ash [67][71] - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore are expected to trade in a range, while glass and soda ash are likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [68][72] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodities Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price rose from 3117 to 3157 (up 1%), with a spot price of 3290 and a basis of 133 [2] - **Hot - rolled coil (HC2605)**: Futures price increased from 3288 to 3320 (up 1%), spot price 3300, basis - 20 [2] - **Iron ore (I2601)**: Futures price dropped from 794 to 786 (down 1%), spot price 810, basis 25 [2] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price rose from 1575 to 1585 (up 1%), spot price 1720, basis 135 [2] - **Coking coal (JM2605)**: Futures price decreased from 1152 to 1140 (down 1%), spot price 1510, basis 370 [2] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price fell from 1053 to 994 (down 6%), spot price 1130, basis 136 [2] - **Soda ash (SA601)**: Futures price declined from 1177 to 1137 (down 3%), spot price 1258, basis 121 [2] 3.2 Rebar Analysis - **Profit**: On December 4, the blast - furnace profit for rebar was 31 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: As of December 5, the blast - furnace operating rate was 80.16% (down 0.93 percentage points), daily hot - metal output was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons), and weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons (down 16.77 tons) [12] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 10.96 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume of construction steel by major traders was 93,867 tons [18] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, social rebar inventory was 361.13 tons (down 23.62 tons), and in - plant inventory was 142.68 tons (down 4.05 tons) [23] 3.3 Iron Ore Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, global iron - ore shipments were 3323.2 tons (up 44.8 tons), and arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2784 tons (down 155.5 tons) [28] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15991.11 tons (up 89.89 tons), and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 42.25 tons) [33] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 334.23 tons (down 9.83 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 126.6 tons [38] 3.4 Float Glass Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 218 (down 2), weekly output was 1085095 tons (down 18800 tons). As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate was 77.25%, and the operating rate was 73.4% [43] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, in - plant float - glass inventory was 59.442 million weight - boxes (down 2.92 million tons), and the available inventory days were 26.8 days (down 0.7 days) [48] - **Demand**: In the week of December 1, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 10.1 days [52] 3.5 Soda Ash Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.74% (down 0.66 percentage points), and production was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons) [55] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, in - plant soda - ash inventory was 153.86 tons (down 4.88 tons) [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of December 5, the soda - ash sales ratio was 106.93% (down 1.23 percentage points) [64] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: Medium - to long - term outlook is bearish due to weakening demand and low winter - storage willingness. Short - term trading should be based on a range - bound strategy [67][68] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Medium - to long - term, glass has limited upward momentum, and soda - ash demand is weak. Short - term, they are expected to trade weakly and oscillate [71][72]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Shi Lei [2] - Research Assistant: Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Mid - to - Long - Term**: For steel and iron ore, the "Golden September and Silver October" period is over, macro - level positive impacts are weakening, and the market is returning to fundamental influences. With increasing environmental restrictions and approaching winter storage, there is an expectation of a mild rebound in steel and iron ore futures, but trading should be based on an oscillatory mindset. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, with stable supply and weak downstream demand, maintaining a weak pattern. Soda ash has a slight reduction in inventory, weak downstream demand, and a supply - surplus situation, with the main contract continuing a weak oscillatory trend [62][66] - **Short - Term**: For black series products, influenced by the "14th Five - Year Plan" on new infrastructure and stable real estate policies and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the overall market showed an oscillatory upward trend this week, but cooled on Friday. Steel, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are expected to oscillate, with risks of repeated fluctuations. Glass and soda ash followed the sector up and then down, with prices under pressure, and short - term trading should be based on fundamental logic [63][67] Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price (10/24/2025) | Futures Closing Price (10/31/2025) | Change | Percentage Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2601) | 3046.0 | 3106.0 | 60.0 | 2.0% | 3230.0 | 124.0 | | Hot - rolled Coil (HC2601) | 3250.0 | 3308.0 | 58.0 | 1.8% | 3330.0 | 22.0 | | Iron Ore (I2601) | 771.0 | 800.0 | 29.0 | 3.8% | 814.0 | 14.0 | | Coke (J2601) | 1757.5 | 1777.0 | 19.5 | 1.1% | 1670.0 | - 107.0 | | Coking Coal (JM2601) | 1248.5 | 1286.0 | 37.5 | 3.0% | 1450.0 | 164.0 | | Glass (FG601) | 1092.0 | 1083.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.8% | 1210.0 | 127.0 | | Soda Ash (SA601) | 1229.0 | 1225.0 | - 4.0 | - 0.3% | 1270.6 | 45.6 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On October 30, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 58 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply Side**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons; the rebar output was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,200 tons [12] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.3218 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,700 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 90,196 tons [16] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 66,800 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.7171 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129,200 tons [21] Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 24, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3884 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,900 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.0843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 592,000 tons [26] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15.27293 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,440 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.84986 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229,330 tons [31] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the average daily discharge volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 331,220 tons, a week - on - week increase of 91,500 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 74,000 tons [36] Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, unchanged from the previous week; as of October 30, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%, unchanged [41] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 823,000 weight boxes compared to October 24; the available days of in - plant inventory were 28 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 days [46] Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.89%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points from the previous week; the output was 757,600 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week [50] - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [55] - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of October 31, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 100.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 percentage points [59]