Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains unchanged in the black industry before the National Day. The industry contradictions are not prominent, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. The key lies in the steel demand after the festival to support the current high pig iron production [1][4]. - The glass market is affected by factors such as price increases of major manufacturers and downstream replenishment. Although there is a pressure range above the glass 2601 contract, it is still regarded as bullish in the near future [2][4]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke has slightly weakened, and the key after the festival is also the steel demand and the resumption progress of coking coal production [4]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - Last Friday, the rebar futures price dropped significantly. The spot price in Hangzhou dropped to 3300 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is 201. The rebar futures price has fallen below the cost of electric furnace valley electricity and long - process, with low static valuation. The macro policy expectations are rising, but the industrial demand is still weak year - on - year. Focus on the demand in October. The raw material supply - demand has weakened, and coking coal and coke have started to accumulate inventory. The RB2601 has support at 3000 - 3100 [1]. Iron Ore - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has slowly declined but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. The daily average pig iron output last week was 242.36 (+1.34) million tons. It is difficult to see short - term negative feedback. The iron ore has a high valuation in the black system, and the rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level. Before the festival, it follows the steel price trend, and the key after the festival is the steel demand [1]. Glass - Last week, the glass futures first fell and then rose. The spot prices of some major glass manufacturers increased by 100 yuan/ton, and other enterprises followed. The supply side had no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline due to downstream replenishment and futures - cash traders' purchases. The cost of coal - gas has increased, but the profits of spot and petroleum coke have risen, while natural gas is still in a loss state. The processing plants are mainly waiting and seeing, only maintaining rigid demand procurement and a small amount of pre - festival stocking [2]. Soda Ash - The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased significantly due to the accelerated pick - up of goods by futures - cash traders. However, considering the second - phase project of Yuanxing, the output is still expected to increase, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. Coal and Coke - Last week, the coking coal output continued to rise, with the daily average output of 194 million tons in 523 coking coal mines across the country. Before the festival, the downstream replenished stocks, the coal mine inventory decreased, and the inventory of coal washing plants and coking plants increased, with a large increase in total inventory. The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, the coke output decreased slightly last week, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke has slightly weakened [4].

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色系周报—双焦 2025年9月26日 研究员：李海啸 交易咨询：Z0019568 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进 行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报 告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本 报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。 焦煤基本面信息： 观点： 矿山库存去化，现货成交开始涨价。 焦煤2601合约震荡。 东亚期货 2 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确 性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、 结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致 的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信 息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Report Date: 9/12/2025 - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Mid - long term: The rebar 01 contract mainly oscillated at a low level this week. Steel mills have fully resumed production, and the supply of rebar is expected to increase. The PPI continued to decline in August but the decline narrowed, the PMI data was still below the boom - bust line, and the real estate data remained weak, lacking support on the finished product demand side. The new policy proposed by the Guinean government regarding the Simandou iron ore development has a shrinking impact. The daily average hot metal output has significantly increased, strengthening the support on the iron ore demand side, and it will continue to oscillate in the short term. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, the weekly output increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the demand side recovered slowly. For soda ash, the factory inventory continued to decline, with mainly rigid demand procurement from downstream, and the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract oscillated weakly and steadily [64][68]. - Short term: Recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Pay attention to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". This week, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash improved limitedly, and the disk continued to consolidate at the bottom [65][69]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3143.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3127.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 16.0 (-0.5%), the spot price was 3220.0, and the basis was 93.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 3340.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3364.0 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 24.0 (0.7%), the spot price was 3400.0, and the basis was 36.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 789.5 on 9/5/2025 to 799.5 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 10.0 (1.3%), the spot price was 796.0, and the basis was - 3.5 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1646.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1625.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 21.0 (-1.3%), the spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 5.5 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1158.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1144.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 14.0 (-1.2%), the spot price was 1280.0, and the basis was 135.5 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1189.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1180.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 9.0 (-0.8%), the spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 60.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1302.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1290.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 12.0 (-0.9%), the spot price was 1280.9, and the basis was - 9.1 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On September 11, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with September 4 [7]. - Supply: As of 9/12/2025, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons; the rebar output was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [12]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 91,912 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the social inventory of rebar was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons compared with the previous week; the factory inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of September 5, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.7562 million tons, a decrease of 800,600 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 2.5729 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.45612 million tons, an increase of 30,400 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 8.99305 million tons, an increase of 53,180 tons [30]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 344,390 tons, an increase of 14,060 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 112,400 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of September 12, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 225, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1.121225 million tons, an increase of 4,200 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points; the start - up rate was 76.01%, the same as last week [38]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the factory inventory of float glass was 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.467 million weight boxes compared with September 5; the available days of factory inventory were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days compared with the previous week [43]. - Demand: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.29%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 761,100 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons compared with the previous week [52]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons compared with the previous week [57]. - Sales - to - production ratio: As of September 12, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points compared with the previous week [61].

(本文来自第一财经) 焦煤跌超5%，现报1099.5元/吨；焦炭跌近5%，现报1577元/吨；铁矿石跌超3%，螺纹钢、热卷跌超 2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, speculative demand has significantly declined due to market sentiment. Although some steel mills have received oral production - restriction notices, the supply of rebar is expected to be less affected. Rebar demand will be significantly suppressed, and short - term prices are under pressure. Iron ore demand has some resilience, but supply is growing faster than demand, so there is a risk of correction. The supply - demand fundamentals of float glass and soda ash are weakening [64][68]. - In the short term, the main contracts of the black series are oscillating weakly. It is recommended to conduct band trading. The main contracts of glass and soda ash lack upward drivers in the short term and are waiting for the start of the demand side [65][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2510): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3188 on August 15th to 3119 on August 22nd, a decrease of 69 or 2.16%. The spot price was 3280, and the basis was 161 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3439 to 3361, a decrease of 78 or 2.27%. The spot price was 3400, and the basis was 39 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 776 to 770, a decrease of 6 or 0.77%. The spot price was 778, and the basis was 8 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1730 to 1679, a decrease of 51 or 2.95%. The spot price was 1620, and the basis was - 59 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1230 to 1162, a decrease of 68 or 5.53%. The spot price was 1350, and the basis was 188 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1211 to 1173, a decrease of 38 or 3.14%. The spot price was 1230, and the basis was 57 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1395 to 1326, a decrease of 69 or 4.95%. The spot price was 1315, and the basis was - 11 [3]. Rebar - **Profit**: On August 21st, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton compared to August 14th [7]. - **Supply**: As of August 22nd, the blast - furnace operating rate was 83.36%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons; the rebar output was 214.65 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 22nd, the apparent consumption of rebar was 194.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.86 tons. As of August 21st, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 93523 tons [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the social inventory of rebar was 432.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.58 tons; the in - plant inventory was 174.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 tons [21]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of August 15th, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3406.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 359.9 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2703.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 131.5 tons [26]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14444.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 62.63 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 9065.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.93 tons [29]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 22nd, the daily average port - clearing volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 341.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.76 tons. As of August 21st, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 91.7 tons [34]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of August 22nd, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1117025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 21st, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, and the operating rate was 75.34%, both the same as last week [39]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 6360.6 million weight - boxes, an increase of 18 million weight - boxes compared to August 15th; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.2 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 days [43]. - **Demand**: As of July 31st, the order days of glass - deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15th [47]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of August 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.48%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 77.14 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons compared to last week [52]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22nd, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 191.08 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons compared to August 15th [57]. - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: As of August 22nd, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 97.8%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points compared to August 15th [61].

2025年7月，钢铁产业链产品价格呈现震荡上涨走势。通过对各产品价格变化情况来看，成本端驱动较 为突出，产业链下游产品上涨力度略低于原料端。分环节来看，铁矿石均价环比涨超5%，但焦炭均价 环比略有降低，同比表现上看，焦炭价格则下降了接近40%。 基本面上，根据调研的钢厂意愿和7月份的利润表现来看，冷镀类供应压力或依旧较低，上游产品供应 压力则有一定增大可能性，从而加速价格和利润向下传导。需求方面，需注意传统旺季前夕，市场能否 出现集中备货的可能性。若需求保持稳定释放，则对市场利多影响有限。 （作者：刘炙鑫，卓创资讯分析师） （文章来源：新华财经） 展望8月份，预计钢铁产业链产品趋势整体震荡上涨，价格重心或有所上移。主要逻辑如下：8月，需要 关注国际上贸易摩擦的缓和与国内主流经济数据的变化，整体偏利多大宗商品市场。 国内经济方面，关注各类稳生产措施落地进度，密切关注各地促进消费类政策的延伸表现。同时货币政 策方面，政策工具箱较为丰富，不排除出现双降的概率，关注未来国内经济数据变化对市场的影响。 原料方面，卓创资讯认为，目前焦煤价格暂无回落，入炉煤成本仍在高位，焦化厂亏损情况下，短期焦 炭价格仍有支撑，但随着焦煤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market in Chengdu is experiencing a structural divergence, with certain categories like thin-walled seamless pipes seeing price increases despite an overall decline in steel prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - On August 1, Chengdu's steel market reported a "more drops than rises" performance, with spiral pipes dropping by 20 yuan to 3860 yuan/ton and channel steel experiencing a maximum drop of 60 yuan [4]. - In contrast, thin-walled seamless pipes (38*3) saw a price increase of 10 yuan to 5830 yuan/ton, while stainless steel welded pipes remained stable at 5200-5300 yuan [4]. - The latest data from the Chengdu Qingbaijiang warehouse indicates that large-diameter resources now account for 35% of inventory, with a turnover period extending to 45 days [4]. Group 2: Underlying Factors of Price Decline - The market's emotional downturn is attributed to a gap between policy expectations and reality, as the anticipated "strong stimulus" did not materialize following the July Politburo meeting [5]. - The impact of climate and economic conditions is evident, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3%, leading to a 30% reduction in procurement from major steel-consuming sectors like machinery and automotive [6]. - Despite weakened demand, national iron and steel production remains high at 2.4 million tons per day, complicating the supply-side adjustments [6]. Group 3: Future Market Predictions - The cost support level for Chengdu rebar is projected to rise to the 3150-3180 yuan range if coking coal supply tightens [6]. - A potential rebound in demand is expected post-August 15, with a 67% decrease in the probability of heavy rainfall, which may accelerate infrastructure projects [6]. - Policy variables, such as production limits in Hebei to ensure air quality for the "9.3 military parade," could reduce national supply by 80,000 to 120,000 tons per day, impacting the Chengdu market [6]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Steel traders are advised to prioritize the liquidation of slow-moving specifications like 219*6mm and focus on the scarce resources of 38*3 thin-walled pipes, which have a premium of 5% [7]. - Construction companies should consider locking in rebar quantities in early August and be cautious of lower-priced resources from other regions that may incur higher transportation costs [7]. - The market suggests that even in a seemingly pessimistic environment, structural opportunities exist, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning in niche segments [7].

Group 1 - Domestic scrap steel prices have shown a strong upward trend, with heavy scrap steel prices increasing by 43 CNY/ton, medium scrap steel by 43 CNY/ton, and general scrap steel by 41 CNY/ton compared to the previous week [1] - The black futures market has risen, particularly in coking coal and coke prices, boosting market confidence and leading to a bullish sentiment among scrap steel traders [1] - Steel companies are experiencing a decrease in inventory due to insufficient arrivals, prompting a quicker pace in price increases for scrap steel procurement [1] Group 2 - In the East China region, scrap steel prices have increased, with notable procurement prices such as 2505 CNY/ton for heavy scrap steel from Nanjing Steel and 2570 CNY/ton from Tongling Fuxin, reflecting a price increase of 60 CNY/ton [1] - In Central China, scrap steel prices initially rose before stabilizing, with heavy scrap steel prices reaching 2700 CNY/ton at Wugang, an increase of 60 CNY/ton [2] - In South China, scrap steel prices are showing a strong fluctuation, with procurement difficulties for steel companies, such as 2470 CNY/ton for heavy scrap steel at Sansteel Mingguang, up by 30 CNY/ton [2] Group 3 - In the Northwest region, scrap steel prices are stable with a slight increase, as seen with Xining Special Steel's heavy scrap steel price at 2300 CNY/ton, up by 40 CNY/ton [3] - In Northeast China, scrap steel prices have adjusted slightly, with heavy scrap steel prices at 2341 CNY/ton for Jianlong Xigang, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [3] - In North China, scrap steel prices are on the rise, with notable increases such as 2590 CNY/ton for heavy scrap steel at Shougang Qian'an, up by 30 CNY/ton [3]

黑色系期货夜盘拉升，焦煤涨超6.6%，焦炭涨超3.5%。螺纹、热卷涨近2%。 涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On July 10th, the black - series commodities saw a significant increase. The main contract of rebar broke through 3100, reaching a maximum of 3130, and iron ore broke through 750, reaching a maximum of 766. The market is concerned about the risks of a pull - back after a rapid rise. However, due to anti - involution expectations, the downside support of the futures market is relatively strong, and it is not easy to form a downward trend in the short term [8][10] 3. Strategy - For unilateral trading, short - term operations are recommended. Since the basis between spot and futures has widened rapidly, attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying spot and shorting futures [6] 4. Market News - **Crude Steel Production Restriction**: Recently, steel mills in Shanxi have received oral notices for crude steel production restrictions, aiming to achieve a provincial - wide annual crude steel production reduction of nearly 6 million tons. One steel mill has shut down a blast furnace, and the rest of the steel mills are formulating production reduction measures according to the requirements [8] - **Coke Price Hike**: It is rumored that a large coking enterprise will raise the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan per ton next Monday, and the price increase will be implemented on Tuesday [8]