程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 01 月 10 日 赚钱效应扩散尚不充分 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(26/01/05-26/01/10) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 张知来 A0230125070002 zhangzl@swsresearch.com 联系人 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 一 周 回 顾 展 望 - ⚫ 一、春季行情增量博弈，且有利于做多的时间窗口连续不断，风险偏好显著提升。春季没 有重大下行风险，只有短期行情演绎充分后的休整。这种情况下，总体赚钱效应可能持续 扩散至高位，短期行情演绎尚不充分。 ⚫ 2026 年开门红充分验证。重申春季行情的逻辑：春季不缺钱，也不缺有利 ...

【导读】1月8日股票ETF资金净流入超46亿元 头部基金公司旗下ETF继续获得资金净流入。 易方达基金方面，创业板ETF易方达资金净流入9.9亿元，恒生科技ETF易方达资金净流入 3.85亿元，证券保险ETF易方达资金净流入3.61亿元，红利低波ETF易方达资金净流入1.3亿元，港股通互联网ETF易方达资金净流入1.2亿 元，中概互联网ETF易方达资金净流入1亿元。 华夏基金方面，除前述恒生科技指数ETF、有色金属ETF基金外，恒生互联网ETF资金净流入3.87亿元，沪深300ETF华夏、半导体材料 ETF、科创半导体ETF资金净流入均超1亿元。 中国基金报记者 张玲 1月8日，A股三大指数集体收跌。股票ETF市场上，资金开始加仓，当日资金净流入超46亿元。 港股市场ETF、行业主题ETF资金净流入居前 1月8日收盘，沪指下跌0.07%，深证成指下跌0.51%，创业板指下跌0.82%。行业表现上，国防军工领涨，商业航天概念股再度走强；可 控核聚变概念股延续强势，AI产业链表现活跃。大金融板块调整，保险、券商方向领跌。 Wind数据显示，截至 1月8日 ，全市场 1300只 股票ETF（含跨境ETF，下同）总规 ...

沪指收出15连阳，但力度有所减弱。沪指在周四依然顽强收出阳线，15连阳的纪录仍然在持续，但从周四盘中表现观察，连涨力度已有所减弱。 突 出现象为：虽然沪指依然收出阳线，但深成指、沪深300、创业板指等主要分类指数已经出现2连阴，预计沪指也存在一定的震荡整理要求。但连阳与否并 非春季行情的主要线索，成交热度的维持和热点板块的轮动才是行情得以延续的关键因素。 后市展望： 春季行情关注科技成长和涨价主线。进入1月后，全球不确定性事件逐步落地，年底资金偏紧效应消散，市场重新回到做多的轨道。预计 春季行情将在1月继续向纵深发展，制约A股进一步上行的因素将逐步被打破。当前行情比较明确的两条主线是科技的成长叙事和原材料价格的上涨，其 背后的主要推动力量来自AI产业链投资的热潮。后续关注北美和中国科技大厂的资本开支和投资计划，在AI投资热度没有出现明显退坡之前，继续关注 科技产业链和原材料涨价主线。 热点板块： 1月科技和原材料涨价方向占优，高股息可做左侧关注。1月市场迎来春季行情的启动，历年春季躁动行情，科技成长方向大概率占优。 结合短期催化剂，诸如商业航天、脑机接口、低空经济、半导体等未来产业可继续保持关注。此外受益于科 ...

中国经济网北京1月9日讯 （记者 何潇）2025年行情收官，混合型基金年度业绩榜单揭晓。据同花顺数 据显示，全市场8040只（各类份额分开计算，下同）有可比业绩的混合型基金中，有7805只基金净值上 涨，占比约97%，有233只基金净值下跌，其余2只基金净值持平。 反观跌幅榜，去年共计11只混合型基金下跌超过15%，其中鑫元消费甄选混合发起C/A 以-19.99%、-19.65%的收益率垫底。该基金成立于2023年3月24日，截至2026年1月6日，其成立来收益 率为-46.57%、-47.20%，累计净值为0.5343元、0.5280元。 该基金目前由基金经理金姚启璠管理。姚启璠历任富邦证券股份有限公司研究部分析师、华安证券股份 有限公司研究所食品饮料组分析师、民生证券股份有限公司研究院食品饮料组联席首席分析师。2022年 7月加入鑫元基金，历任权益研究员、基金经理助理，现任基金经理。 而2025年混合型基金跌幅榜前十五名中，有六只基金来自广发基金旗下，分别为广发内需增长混合C、 广发内需增长混合A、广发价值优势混合、广发价值优选混合C、广发价值优选混合A、广发睿铭两年 持有期混合C，跌幅分别为16.69% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1, with a long - position overweight strategy for the stock index. The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026 but could have a rebound after the Spring Festival, with a short - position hedge before the Spring Festival and a long - position underweight after. Commodities should be structurally allocated, with long - position overweight on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities, long - position standard allocation (timing) on black building materials and agricultural products, and short - position standard allocation on crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity Market**: In December 2025, the A - share market oscillated upward, switching back to the growth - oriented style. Most primary industry indices rose, with national defense, communications, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and machinery leading the monthly gains [8][10]. - **Bond Market**: The performance of short - and long - term bonds diverged. Short - term Treasury yields declined while long - term yields increased, and the Treasury term spread widened significantly. By December 31, 2025, the 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields dropped to 1.3605% and 1.3830% respectively, while the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rose to 1.8473% and 2.2674% [13]. - **Commodities**: The prices of domestic commodity futures were differentiated, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 28, 2025, the precious metals index soared 14.38%, the metal index rose 6.18%, the industrial products index increased 1.44%, and the agricultural products index slightly declined 0.59% [17]. 2. Outlook and Analysis of Major Asset Classes - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: Abroad, the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Fed may decrease. Domestically, the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, but a reserve requirement ratio cut is still expected [19][28]. - **Equity Assets**: In the short - to - medium term, the cross - year market has started, and the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1 2026. In the long - term, the policy and liquidity environment in 2026 are favorable to the market [31][32]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026, with the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield before the Spring Festival likely between 1.90% - 1.95%. After the Spring Festival, there may be an oversold rebound opportunity [35][36]. - **Commodities**: The differentiation pattern of commodities will continue. Crude oil may remain weak after a short - term rebound. Industrial metals may face supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural product prices may fluctuate more due to various factors. Precious metals may experience significant short - term fluctuations but maintain an upward long - term trend [37][38]. 3. Allocation Strategies for Major Asset Classes - **Domestic Stock Index**: In 2026, the equity market should be strategically allocated, with a long - position overweight in January. Focus on industries such as the AI industry chain, leading companies going global, industries with improved supply - demand relationships, and the industrialization of cutting - edge technologies [40]. - **Commodities**: Increase the weight of commodities in the asset allocation. Overweight precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities; standard - allocate black building materials and agricultural products (timing); and short - allocate crude oil [41][42]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Hedge with short positions before the Spring Festival and underweight long positions after the Spring Festival. The bond market will remain volatile in 2026 and should be under - allocated [43].

8日，A股走势现分化，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指弱势下探，科创50指数强势上扬；港股再度下挫，两大股指均跌超1%。 具体来看，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，尾盘翻绿；科创50指数较为强势，盘中一度大涨近3%。截至收盘，沪指微跌0.07%报4082.98点，深证成指跌0.51%，创业 板指跌0.82%，科创50指数涨0.82%，沪深北三市合计成交约2.83万亿元，较此前一日减少约550亿元。 消息面上，7日上午，箭元科技中大型液体运载火箭总装总测及回收复用基地项目开工仪式在杭州钱塘区开工。这是国内首个聚焦海上回收复用火箭的规 模化制造与生产基地，也是杭州市首个火箭总装项目。 中信建投证券指出，纵观海外商业航天产业发展路径，成功的关键在于政策、技术与商业模式的协同驱动。美国通过立法保障、NASA巨额采购合同与监 管松绑，实现了从国家主导向低轨全面民营化的激进转型。欧洲则依托ESA整合资源，探索一体化市场模式。技术层面，可回收火箭、模块化卫星制造及 在轨服务为代表的降本增效技术是产业规模化核心。商业模式上，SpaceX全产业链闭环实现盈利，PlanetLabs等企业则以标准数据订阅服务形成稳定现金 流。对标海外，我国商业航天发 ...

8日，A股走势现分化，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指弱势下探，科创50指数强势上扬；港股再度下挫，两大股指均跌超1%。 具体来看，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，尾盘翻绿；科创50指数较为强势，盘中一度大涨近3%。截至收盘，沪指微跌0.07%报4082.98点，深证成指跌0.51%，创业 板指跌0.82%，科创50指数涨0.82%，沪深北三市合计成交约2.83万亿元，较此前一日减少约550亿元。 全A超3700股飘红， 逾110股涨停。商业航天概念再度爆发，乾照光电（300102）、谱尼测试（300887）等尾盘快速涨停，金风科技斩获3连板；工业软件 概念崛起，宝信软件涨停，汉得信息等大涨；可控核聚变概念活跃，中国核建、航天晨光、派克新材等涨停；此外，AI产业链股上扬，寒武纪盘中一度 涨超6%，全日成交215.8亿元，位居A股成交额首位。值得注意的是，大金融板块集体回调，华林证券跌停，中国平安跌逾4%。 港股方面，"全球大模型第一股"智谱上市首日盘中一度破发，收盘涨逾13%报131.5港元/股，最新市值579亿港元。 商业航天概念爆发 商业航天概念盘中大幅拉升，个股掀涨停潮。截至收盘，和顺电气、邵阳液压、乾照光电、海兰信、航天 ...

8日，A股走势现分化，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指弱势下探，科创50指数强势上扬；港股再度下 挫，两大股指均跌超1%。 具体来看，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，尾盘翻绿；科创50指数较为强势，盘中一度大涨近3%。截至收盘，沪 指微跌0.07%报4082.98点，深证成指跌0.51%，创业板指跌0.82%，科创50指数涨0.82%，沪深北三市合 计成交约2.83万亿元，较此前一日减少约550亿元。 全A超3700股飘红， 逾110股涨停。商业航天概念再度爆发，乾照光电（300102）（300102）、谱尼测 试（300887）（300887）等尾盘快速涨停，金风科技（002202）斩获3连板；工业软件概念崛起，宝信 软件（600845）涨停，汉得信息（300170）等大涨；可控核聚变概念活跃，中国核建（601611）、航天 晨光（600501）、派克新材（605123）等涨停；此外，AI产业链股上扬，寒武纪盘中一度涨超6%，全 日成交215.8亿元，位居A股成交额首位。值得注意的是，大金融板块集体回调，华林证券（002945）跌 停，中国平安跌逾4%。 港股方面，"全球大模型第一股"智谱上市首日盘中一度破发，收盘涨逾13%报 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on the 8th, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index declined, and the STAR Market Index surged [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.07% at 4082.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.82%. In contrast, the STAR Market Index rose 0.82% [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets was approximately 2.83 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 550 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace concept saw a significant surge, with over 3700 stocks in the A-share market rising, and more than 110 stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - Notable stocks included Qian Zhao Guang Dian and Pu Ni Test, which quickly reached their daily limit, while Jin Feng Technology achieved three consecutive limit-ups [6] - The sector's growth was attributed to the launch of a large liquid carrier rocket assembly and recovery reuse base project in Hangzhou, marking a significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace development [8] Controlled Nuclear Fusion Sector - The controlled nuclear fusion concept was notably active, with stocks like Ha Han Hua Tong and Tian Li Composite seeing significant gains, with some stocks hitting the daily limit [10] - Recent breakthroughs in controlled nuclear fusion technology were reported, including the confirmation of the existence of a density-free zone in the Tokamak, which is crucial for high-density operation [12] - The upcoming 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference aims to promote collaboration and innovation within the nuclear fusion industry [12] Industrial Software Sector - The industrial software concept experienced a strong rally, with stocks like Han De Information and Bao Xin Software reaching their daily limit [14] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a directive to enhance the development of industrial software, indicating a supportive policy environment for the sector [16][17] - The government's focus on upgrading industrial software and related technologies is expected to drive rapid growth in the domestic industrial software industry [17]

从中长期看，订单向国产芯片倾斜已成为必然趋势。出于对算力稳定供应的迫切诉求，云厂商及人工智 能初创公司正逐步将更多算力采购规划转向国产芯片，且国产占比持续提升。随着国产先进制程工艺日 趋成熟，国产算力芯片进入量产交付阶段，市占率大幅抬升的时机已然成熟。市场集中度有望显著提 高，尤其应关注在主流云厂商中份额快速提升的国产芯片企业。 从投资角度看，科创 50 指数聚焦半导体、信息技术等高新技术与战略性新兴产业，长期成长逻辑清 晰。作为跟踪该指数的代表性工具，科创 50ETF 南方 (588150.SH) 具备板块覆盖全面、流动性好、代表 性强等优势，是把握国产算力崛起与 AI 产业链机遇的重要配置选择。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 1 月 8 日，A 股市场窄幅震荡，国防军工、通用航空、芯片板块涨幅靠前。截至 10 点 50 分，科创 50ETF 南方 (588150.SH) 涨 1.97%，海光信息涨 10.59% 。 在政策强力支持下，算力芯片发展正迎来关键窗口期。八部门联合印发《"人工智能 + 制造" 专项行动 实施意见》，明确提出要强化人工智能 ...