Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is close to its historical high, but the upcoming earnings season poses a significant test for the market [1] - Wall Street expects a 2.8% year-over-year profit growth for S&P 500 companies in Q2, the smallest increase in two years [2] - Only 6 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 are expected to see profit growth, marking the lowest number of growing sectors since Q1 2023 [2] Group 2 - Concerns over tariffs and geopolitical risks are contributing to a bleak outlook for the upcoming earnings season [5] - FedEx and General Mills have issued warnings about lower-than-expected profits due to a "global demand environment uncertainty" [5] - The energy sector is projected to experience the largest profit decline in Q2, with a year-over-year drop of 25.5% [5] Group 3 - Analysts believe that the forecasts for the upcoming earnings season may be overly conservative, with some expecting a more optimistic outlook for 2026 [6] - Despite strong quarterly performance, concerns about tariff uncertainties may not be fully alleviated [6] - A survey of 169 CEOs indicated that expectations and plans for the next six months have been adjusted downward due to ongoing tariff issues [6]

新华财经北京6月27日电根据路透社进行的一项调查，在经历了5月份的下降之后，韩国6月份的出口预 计会因为科技产品需求强劲而出现反弹。然而，面对美国关税政策的不确定性，经济学家们对此保持警 惕。 在6月23日至6月26日期间进行的调查中，10位经济学家的预估中值显示，韩国6月份出口预计同比增长 4.7%。这与5月份1.3%的降幅形成了对比，标志着四个月以来首次下降后的恢复。 （文章来源：新华财经） 与此同时，调查还预测韩国6月进口将增长6.9%，达到自2024年7月以来的最快增速，相比之下，5月份 的进口则下降了5.3%。韩国作为每月首个公布贸易数据的主要出口经济体，计划于7月1日发布6月份的 数据。 本月前20天的数据提供了积极信号，其中半导体出口激增21.8%，汽车出口增长9.2%，推动整体出口增 长至8.3%。尽管如此，韩国对中国出口却出现了1.0%的下滑，而对美国的出口则增长了4.3%。 为了应对关税带来的不确定性，韩国首席贸易谈判代表本周访问了美国，并与美方官员进行了贸易谈 判，双方重申了致力于尽早达成关税协议的决心。不过，Meritz Securities的经济学家Stephen Lee警告 说：" ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：关税不确定性在四月达到高点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC has downgraded the rating of China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK) from Hold to Reduce, citing concerns over tariff uncertainties impacting shipping demand in the second half of the year [1] Shipping Industry Summary - The average increase in shipping stocks covered by HSBC this year is 12% [1] - Concerns over tariffs have led to early shipments, which supported first-quarter earnings [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SFCI) rose by 73% in the second quarter due to tariff delays, but has since fallen by 17% from its peak due to weakening bookings [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to pressure shipping demand in the latter half of the year, with a focus shifting back to overcapacity and declining profitability [1] Company Summary - HSBC has lowered the target price for China COSCO Shipping Holdings from 14 HKD to 11 HKD [1] - The benefits of tariff delays are believed to be already reflected in the stock price, but uncertainties and overcapacity may exert pressure on profitability [1]

Group 1 - The market experienced a dramatic reversal on Monday, initially driven by geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil prices soaring by 6% before collapsing by 7% as the situation stabilized [1][2] - The easing of geopolitical risks led to a shift in focus towards macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes, as market participants anticipated a possible interest rate cut in July [2][3] - The dollar faced significant pressure, marking its worst first half since 1986, as investors adjusted their positions and reduced exposure to the currency [4][6] Group 2 - The shift in market sentiment indicates a potential transition in the macroeconomic landscape, with the possibility of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve becoming apparent [3][8] - The ongoing adjustments in the foreign exchange market reflect a systematic move towards de-dollarization, particularly in Asia, where U.S. bondholders are actively re-hedging their positions [6][7] - The current market dynamics suggest a focus on momentum trading, with investors chasing favorable capital flows while underlying macroeconomic changes are brewing [8][9]

Group 1: Investment Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The allocation ratio of funds to the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 1.07 percentage points to 4.59% in Q1 2025, with copper, gold, and aluminum being the key focus for increased allocation [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 8.11% from the beginning of 2025 to May 30, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.52 percentage points, ranking third among 31 industry indices [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the non-ferrous metals sector is projected to be 141.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.01%, while Q1 2025 net profit is expected to reach 45.27 billion yuan, a 70.2% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - Multiple factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to enhance liquidity and benefit gold [2] - Gold's investment value is highlighted by rising inflation expectations in the U.S., alongside ongoing tariff uncertainties that increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Geopolitical risks and major central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves are anticipated to further push gold prices upward [2] Group 3: Rare Earth Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand dynamics for rare earths are marginally improving, driven by policies promoting new energy vehicles and home appliances, which are expected to increase demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials [3] - The domestic control over rare earth mining growth is slowing, and while imports from Myanmar have temporarily recovered, future import stability remains uncertain due to seasonal factors [3] - Export controls on heavy rare earths implemented in April 2025 are expected to drive up overseas rare earth prices, which will likely lead to domestic price increases [3] Group 4: Copper and Aluminum Market Fundamentals - The aluminum sector is supported by ongoing domestic policies, with high demand expected from the power grid, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, while supply growth is anticipated to slow down [4] - Short-term uncertainties remain due to tariff disruptions and economic fluctuations, but the long-term outlook for aluminum prices is upward due to supply constraints [4] - The copper market faces short-term supply disruptions and long-term constraints due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, which are expected to support copper prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each market, considering factors such as economic data, geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - price relationships [5][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.04%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat [5]. - **Economic Data**: The central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 23, with an operating rate of 1.40%. Meanwhile, 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured on the same day [5]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: With stable macro - data but weak economic recovery momentum, it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Given the relatively low Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade agreement, it is advisable to be cautious as there is unlikely to be a trending market [5][6]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.68%, 0.74%, 0.64%, and 1.01% respectively [7]. - **Economic Data**: As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar and wind power generation capacity increased by 56.9% and 23.1% respectively. From January to May, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 132 hours compared to the previous year, while power grid investment increased by 19.8% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and there is a lack of confidence in corporate profits. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 781.3, up 0.35%, and the night - session closing price was 786.1. The silver main contract closed at 8,770, up 1.22%, with a night - session closing price of 8809 [10]. - **Economic Data**: The preliminary values of the Eurozone's manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs in June were 49.4, 50.0, and 50.2 respectively [10]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the uncertainty of tariffs, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Commodities Steel - related - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand relationship in the real estate industry and the entry into the off - season are suppressing prices. However, due to the low valuation, the downside space may be limited. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [12][13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and its valuation is relatively high among black - series varieties. Investors can consider buying at low levels and exit on rebounds, with a stop - loss if the previous low is broken. A light - position participation is recommended [15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed mixed performance. The market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, the decline may stop, but the medium - term weakness remains. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [17][18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon declined. The supply is still high while the demand is weak. In the short term, the oversupply situation may continue, and the price is under pressure. Investors can consider low - value call options if the spot losses increase significantly [20][21]. Energy - related - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The market sentiment has eased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. The US has increased its net long positions in crude oil futures and options. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [22][23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling, with a relatively strong trend. The reduction of Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the uncertainty of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are positive factors. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [25][26][27]. Rubber - related - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize and rebound. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber remained flat, while the 20 - grade rubber main contract declined. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is relatively stable. The market may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long after the market stabilizes [30][32]. Chemical - related - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined. The production is expected to decrease, the demand shows no sign of improvement, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The market is in a bottom - oscillating state [33][35]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea declined. The large - scale agricultural seasonal demand is basically over, and the industrial demand is weak. However, considering the inventory reduction, it is advisable to take a bullish view [36][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX fluctuated and adjusted. The supply - demand may weaken, but the cost is expected to drive the price. It is advisable to operate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices and the Middle - East situation [38]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the cost is strong. It is advisable to participate at low levels and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined. The supply - demand has weakened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The geopolitical situation may reduce supply, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to take a cautiously bullish view and pay attention to inventory and import changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive, and the supply has decreased. It is advisable to go long at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. The raw material cost is strong, and the supply will decrease due to equipment maintenance. The demand is improving. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly [43][44]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass rose slightly. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market lacks positive support. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly, and short - position holders should control their positions [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda rose. The production is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position holders should control their positions [46][47]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, although the domestic mechanical pulp market has a slight upward trend [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The supply remains high, and the demand has slowed down. The oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse [49]. Agricultural - related - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a weak downward trend. The overseas macro - environment suppresses the price, but the raw material supply and low global inventory provide support. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long [50][51]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption data is good. The price is expected to fluctuate [52]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The good weather in the US Midwest is beneficial to soybean growth. The inventory of both is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [54][56]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil closed up. The domestic inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [57][58]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures declined. The domestic inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. It is advisable to consider opportunities to go long on the ratio of oil to meal [59][60]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is increasing, and the domestic inventory is low. It is advisable to go long in batches [64][66][67]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures declined. The new - year production is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [68][69]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, the national average price of pigs rose. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to pay attention to the weight - reduction of large - scale farms and consider positive arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [70][72]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs remained flat. The supply is increasing, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is advisable to try shorting on rebounds [73][75][76]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of corn rose slightly, while the main contract of corn starch declined. The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and the policy is favorable. It is advisable to wait and see for corn starch, which follows the corn market [76][77][78]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of log rose. The market has no obvious driver, and the spot price is weak. The housing transaction has slightly improved, and it is necessary to be vigilant against bullish sentiment disturbances in the 07 contract [79][80][81].

联储官员GOOLSBEE：如果关税带来的不确定性消除，应该继续降息。(新浪财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the long-term credit rating of Tongcheng New Materials Group Co., Ltd. at AA, with a stable outlook for both the company and its convertible bonds, indicating strong operational performance and financial stability [1][3]. Company Overview - Tongcheng New Materials Group was established in 2008 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2018, with a focus on the chemical industry [10]. - As of March 2025, the company has total assets of 87.03 billion yuan and equity of 35.23 billion yuan [10][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 32.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.10%, and a profit of 5.50 billion yuan, up 28.85% from the previous year [6][17]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 2.43 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.76% increase year-on-year [6][17]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.16 percentage points in 2024, driven by a decrease in raw material prices [17][20]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market share in the specialty rubber additives sector, with its production accounting for 28.99% of the domestic total in 2024 [5][13]. - In the semiconductor photoresist market, the company has expanded its production capacity to approximately 9,000 tons per year as of March 2025, with substantial revenue growth in this segment [5][14]. Operational Highlights - The company has seen an increase in production and sales volume of rubber additives due to recovering demand, with production capacity utilization rates improving [5][20]. - The company’s semiconductor photoresist business generated revenue of 303 million yuan in 2024, a 50.43% increase year-on-year, while the display panel photoresist segment achieved 330 million yuan, up 26.80% [5][14]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to the low utilization rate of biodegradable materials due to market demand issues and high fixed costs [6][19]. - A significant portion of the raw materials for photoresist products is imported, leading to potential supply chain vulnerabilities due to global tariff uncertainties [6][19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the release of capacity from its ongoing photoresist projects, which may enhance production capabilities [5][6]. - The company’s ability to maintain its competitive edge will depend on its capacity to innovate and adapt to market changes, particularly in the photoresist sector [5][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, but indicated a hawkish stance due to revised economic forecasts and increased inflation concerns [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates in 2023 after a 100 basis point cut last year, reflecting a cautious approach towards monetary policy [1] - The economic projections from the Fed have shifted towards stagflation, with lowered GDP growth expectations and increased unemployment and inflation forecasts [1] - The dot plot indicates no change in the median number of rate cuts for the year, but the number of committee members favoring no cuts has increased, suggesting a more cautious outlook [1] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Concerns - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the resilience of the labor market despite a slowdown, indicating that the Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation risks stemming from tariffs [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is highlighted as a significant factor affecting supply chains and price stability, necessitating a restrictive policy stance to manage potential inflationary pressures [2] Group 3: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations suggest that the first rate cut could occur in September if inflation remains weak in the coming months [2] - With Powell's term ending in May 2024 and potential changes in Fed leadership, there is speculation that a more dovish approach may lead to significant rate cuts next year [2]