Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The competitive advantages in the paint industry are gradually becoming evident, and the company is expected to emerge as a leader in the existing housing market [8] - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit due to effective cost control and a reduction in impairment provisions [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from domestic demand policies and has a unique valuation potential within the building materials sector [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12,105 million RMB, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 332 million RMB, an increase of 91.27% [8] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 was 21.30 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.12%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.05 billion RMB, up 123.33% [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense market competition [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 802 million RMB, 1,001 million RMB, and 1,302 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52, 1.90, and 2.47 RMB [8] - The company is expected to experience a significant increase in net profit growth rates of 141.60% in 2025 and 30.07% in 2027 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading national paint enterprise, leveraging its unique competitive advantages and efficient channel strategy to navigate market volatility [8] - The company is anticipated to be among the first in the industry to experience a recovery in performance, benefiting from the cyclical nature of the market [8]

Market Overview - The US and China trade negotiations remain uncertain, impacting stock performance in Hong Kong and mainland China, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% to 3,295.06 points[3] - The US Federal Reserve officials hinted at a potential interest rate cut in June, contributing to mixed performance in US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.3%[3][9] - The dollar index remained stable, while G-10 currencies generally depreciated against the dollar, with the Japanese yen experiencing the largest decline[4][27] Economic Policies - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need to strengthen bottom-line thinking in response to external economic pressures, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and social conditions[6] - China is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds in Q2, with monetary policy potentially including rate cuts to support consumption and technology sectors[6] - The meeting indicated a shift towards supporting service consumption and optimizing real estate policies, particularly in stock housing acquisition and urban village redevelopment[6] Stock Market Performance - Major US indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.05% to 40,113.5 points, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.7% to 5,525.2 points[8] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan's stock market led gains with a 2.0% increase, followed by Japan and the Philippines with rises of 1.9% and 1.8% respectively[21] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.32% at 21,980 points, with notable movements in technology stocks like Baidu, which rose by 3.85%[11] Commodity and Fixed Income Markets - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with NYMEX crude oil rising by 0.4% to $63.02 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 1.5%[27] - US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.24%, reflecting market expectations of a more dovish Fed[30] - New bond issuances performed strongly, with significant interest in local government bonds and corporate debt in the secondary market[30]

文 ｜ 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 白弘伟 任恒毅 卿施典 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 贸易战僵持阶段，资金风险偏好不高，政策预期明确叠加财报披露收官，当前市场更关注确定性高和可兑现的方向，建议紧扣 政策主线，在主题上参与广义内循环和新科技主题，包括地产基建、旅游、消费电子、机器人等。从外部环境上看，特朗普关 税政策依然有较大不确定性，贸易战处于僵持阶段，市场焦点仍集中于美联储政策路径与地缘政治风险。从内部看，政治局会 议强调以我为主和底线思维，国内持续推动内循环的稳楼市、促消费政策。从主题环境来看，综合流动性指标和市场风格特 征，市场或在低位内需板块及新科技主题持续轮动。从催化因素分析上看，重点关注国内对内循环的稳楼市/促消费刺激政策、 中美关税谈判进展、科技领域催化事件。结合市场环境、催化因素以及综合量化指标研判，建议关注地产基建、旅游、消费电 子、机器人主题。我们在报告中还梳理了1 0个标的构成的主题推荐组合供投资者参考。 ▍ A股大势：内循环为主，新概念科技主题轮动。 2 0 2 5年4月政治局会议指出，虽然一季度经济开局良好，但外部冲击影响加大，下行风险显著上升；需要"强化底线思维"，对 外部压力从最坏处 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation and cyclical investment opportunities in response to the current economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [4] - It suggests that the central government's recent policy adjustments indicate a shift towards prioritizing domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a more stable and controllable option compared to external factors [4] - The report anticipates that local government bond policies will accelerate, providing liquidity support for the economy, and predicts a potential early turnaround in cyclical sectors [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 0.2%, while the cement and glass fiber indices experienced declines of 1.0% and increases of 1.8% respectively [8] - Notable stock performances included gains from companies like Jianfeng Group (+14.1%) and losses from companies like Jingang Photovoltaic (-11.7%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton month-on-month but up 35.7% year-on-year [15] - The cement inventory ratio stands at 61.8%, unchanged month-on-month but down 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [15] - The cement shipment rate is 47.6%, down 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1421.7 RMB/ton, up 0.7 RMB/ton month-on-month but down 402.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [31] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5.618 million heavy boxes, down 0.1% month-on-month but up 2.4% year-on-year [31] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month but down 4.1 RMB/sqm year-on-year [36] - The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have increased to 26.85 days, up 3.1% month-on-month and 44.7% year-on-year [36] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 715.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 1750.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [46] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 60.19%, up 1.09 percentage points month-on-month and 11.45 percentage points year-on-year [46] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing efforts in various regions to stabilize the real estate market, including new housing plans in Qingdao and government initiatives in Guangdong [14] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability in the real estate market and capital markets, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the differing core objectives behind the policies of China and the United States, leading to inconsistent market volatility between the two countries [3][4][10] - The report identifies the underlying issue of capital erosion in the U.S. economy, which is driving economic output outflow, rather than merely focusing on trade deficits and manufacturing repatriation [4][14][34] - The analysis reveals that by the end of 2024, the U.S. net foreign liabilities are projected to reach approximately $26.23 trillion, accounting for about 89.88% of nominal GDP, marking a historical high since the Bretton Woods system [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report outlines the core goals and pathways of "Trump 2.0," indicating that reducing trade deficits will take precedence, with expectations of continued high-tier tariffs and policies to promote domestic manufacturing [5][34][35] - The 4.25 Politburo meeting highlights the importance of "bottom-line thinking" in response to external shocks, focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and exports to other countries as key strategies [6][39][43] - Investment strategies should focus on "self-controllable" technology and military industries, domestic consumption, and gold as a hedge against external uncertainties, with specific sectors identified for investment opportunities [6][44][43]

配置上，从规避不确定性的角度，自主科技、受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利 以及不依赖短期业绩的题材料将占优。我们认为市场将在广义上的内循环、新的科技主题轮动。 图片来源：摄图网 PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 关注内循环 僵持阶段看什么 策略聚焦 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 玛西高娃 贸易战僵持阶段，超预期的刺激和基于妥协的贸易协议都很难发生；僵持阶段比的是两国的经济韧性，中 国的政策选项更多、空间更大、能耗更久，对美国而言，7月前大规模的国债到期可能会是特朗普关税政策 的第一个动摇点；A股也是中国贸易战中提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心， 港股可能是阶段性的薄弱环节，但也要看到内地资金依旧整体明显低配港股。配置上，从规避不确定性的 角度，自主科技、受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利以及不依赖短期业绩的题材 料将占优。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期；特朗普政策侧 重点超预期。 点 ...

突破3400之后一直偏空，仓位只有30%，想等大跌再重新建仓，但贸易战后国家队介入超预 期，仅4月8号加了10%的仓位，之后一直没动。 站在现在的时点上，从国内政策端，个人一直认为没有有效手段应对通缩，货币政策也是跟 随或者等应对式的；从国际看美国衰退注定全球经济都好不了，东升西落的逻辑是行不通 的；不确定的是后面贸易战如果真的有缓和，以A股目前的位置有3%-5%的空间？好像也不 值得做一波？ 特请教下各位大神的意见。 资水 从博弈的角度谈一下个人观点。 lcqubeley 缓和了a股反而要跌，因为没有护盘预期了， 做a股要十分反人性。 Sorrentino 无论有没有缓和，都有很大的上行空间。 前期GJD托底，原因大概是贸易战不能示弱的统一部署。通常来讲，凡是有托底，必然涨不 高。加之经济预期下调，所以后市大盘应该是涨不上去的。 大盘短线企稳之下，游资必然活跃，所以ST股、微盘股最近抓住短暂的时间窗大涨。但退市 杀即将来临，风险也很大了。 还有一个机会点，主营是美国业务的股票，包括果链、英伟达链、特斯拉链、亚马逊链等， 受贸易战打击太狠，又没有被GJD资金照顾到，还处在深跌20%~30%的位置。如果贸易战缓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 23, the A - share market fluctuated narrowly, with the Wind All - A index rising 0.35% and a trading volume of 1.26 trillion yuan. Trump softened his stance on tariffs, saying that the tariff rate on China would be significantly reduced but not zero. Affected by this, gold prices fell from their highs, and the Nasdaq rose 2.7% intraday. Sectors such as new energy vehicles, electronics, and home appliances, which were previously affected by tariffs, strengthened, while the consumption and real - estate sectors weakened again. The China Securities 1000 Index rose 0.59%, the China Securities 500 Index rose 0.19%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.08%, and the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.29%. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, but expenditure increased by 4.2%, showing positive policy characteristics. The issuance progress of ordinary national bonds reached 30%, with a significantly earlier rhythm. China's Q1 GDP was 5.4%, and the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in March was 5.9%, with the consumption side making an excessive contribution to the economic aggregate. The US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern, and it may have a long - term impact on the A - share market. In the future, China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, and themes such as consumption and dividends may be relatively dominant for a long time this year. Technology themes can focus on sub - fields such as domestic substitution and high - capital expenditure. The overall view on the stock index is "oscillation" [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed with the 30 - year main contract down 0.40%, the 10 - year main contract down 0.17%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.04%. The central bank conducted 108 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%. There were 104.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net investment of 3.5 billion yuan. The economic and financial data in March were better than expected, reducing the need for short - term monetary policy to take action. Without the expected double - cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further and is expected to remain sideways in the short term. The overall view on treasury bonds is "oscillation" [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 23, 2025, compared with April 22, 2025, IH was at 2,627.4, down 10.0 or - 0.38%; IF was at 3,734.0, up 1.0 or 0.03%; IC was at 5,495.0, up 9.0 or 0.16%; IM was at 5,820.0, up 50.4 or 0.87% [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index was at 2,648.8, down 7.7 or - 0.29%; the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index was at 3,786.9, up 2.9 or 0.08%; the China Securities 500 Index was at 5,634.9, up 10.7 or 0.19%; the China Securities 1000 Index was at 5,984.6, up 35.3 or 0.59% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS was at 102.37, down 0.034 or - 0.03%; TF was at 106.02, down 0.145 or - 0.14%; T was at 108.77, down 0.2 or - 0.18%; TL was at 119.92, up 0.59 or 0.49% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yield of the 2 - year treasury bond was 1.4705, up 1.35; the 5 - year was 1.5354, up 1.73; the 10 - year was 1.6618, up 1.24; the 30 - year was 1.9225, up 1.95 [4]. 3.2 Market News - The director of the People's Bank of China Research Bureau, Wang Xin, said on April 23 that the "Action Plan for Further Improving Cross - border Financial Service Facilitation in Shanghai International Financial Center" will improve the cross - border fund allocation of the full - function fund pool in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, encourage banks to gradually automate cross - border payment processing, and extend the service time for the cross - border fund pool of key enterprise groups to achieve real - time global fund allocation [5]. - The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Lu Lei, said on April 23 that the "Action Plan for Further Improving Cross - border Financial Service Facilitation in Shanghai International Financial Center" has two core points: highlighting the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center and focusing on improving cross - border financial service facilitation. In 2024, the total cross - border RMB receipts and payments in Shanghai reached 29.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30%, accounting for 47% of the country's total business volume [5]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stated on April 23 that on April 22, the "Seminar on Promoting Entrepreneurial Spirit and Accelerating the Construction of World - Class Enterprises" (Phase 2) was held. The Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Zhang Yuzhuo, said that central enterprises should accelerate the development of new - quality productive forces, cultivate a number of strategic emerging industries and future industries with core competitiveness, and better play the roles of technological innovation, industrial control, and security support [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 [14][16][18][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 are presented [23][24][25][27][28]. 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the treasury bond analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [30]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [30].

上周五，沪指跌0.11%报3276.73点，深证成指涨0.23%报9781.65点，创业板指涨0.27%报1913.97点，北 证50指数涨1.98%，沪深北三市合计成交9493亿元，较此前一交易日减少逾800亿元。行业方面，旅游 出行、食品饮料、农业、纺织服装、半导体等板块走低，地产板块强势拉升，石油、券商、银行等板块 均上扬，6G概念、海洋经济、新型城镇概念等活跃。 中信证券指出，资金保持低风险偏好，市场呈现出持续高轮动特征，建议根据市场情况均衡配置。市场 将在广义上的内循环、新的科技主题轮动。美国关税对经济增长的长期影响尚待评估，国内维护楼市和 股市的政策持续出台对市场预期托底，科技产业经历了一轮情绪高潮后逐步进入冷静期。从主题环境来 看，综合流动性指标和市场风格特征，市场或在低位板块持续轮动。 今日投资机会解析 银行经营整体稳健 截至4月20日，6家上市银行（包含1家大行，3家股份行及2家农商行）已披露2025年一季度业绩或经营 情况。从6家银行经营情况看，一季度财务指标和资产质量总体稳健。 中信证券表示，上周银行板块表现乐观，核心驱动要素在于市场波动率加大背景下，银行板块受益于其 稳定回报和股指权重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is characterized by a low-risk preference for funds and a continuous high rotation feature, suggesting a balanced allocation based on market conditions. The focus is on domestic circulation and new technology themes, with ongoing policies to stabilize the real estate and stock markets impacting market expectations [1][2]. Market Overview - The A-share market is primarily driven by domestic circulation, with rapid rotation of new technology concepts lacking sustainability. Concerns over tariff risks have led to increased risk aversion among investors. The U.S. maintains a hardline stance on tariffs against China, while China seeks multilateral trade with ASEAN and EU countries [2][3]. Theme Environment 1) Concerns persist regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on the macro economy, with a significant increase in tariffs on certain Chinese goods to 245%, leading to a near halt in exports to the U.S. and heightened global market volatility [3]. 2) President Xi Jinping's recent visits to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia aim to strengthen multilateral trade with ASEAN countries, enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including electric vehicles and agricultural products [4]. 3) The A-share market has seen a decline in trading volume, with the total trading volume dropping to 914.66 billion yuan, the lowest in 2025. Defensive sectors like banking remain strong, while real estate and urbanization concepts have gained traction [5]. Catalytic Factors 1) The State Council is set to hold a press conference focusing on the opening of the service industry, with ongoing stimulus policies aimed at domestic circulation [6]. 2) Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are expected, with the Ministry of Finance planning to inject 100 billion yuan into the market to alleviate liquidity pressure on commercial banks, benefiting small and micro enterprises [6]. Focus Areas - The domestic circulation is anticipated to boost low-positioned domestic demand sectors, with potential reversals in the consumer electronics market. The self-sufficiency trend is expected to benefit the aerospace and military sectors, while industrial transformations may favor the deep-sea economy [7].