Group 1 - The technology sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by DeepSeek, while the dividend sector is underperforming, creating a "see-saw effect" between the two [2][4] - Technology stocks are characterized by high growth and volatility, while dividend stocks represent low-risk assets with stable cash dividends [5][6][7] - The current market environment suggests that a "barbell strategy" combining both technology and dividend stocks may be an effective approach for investors to manage risk and pursue returns [8][9] Group 2 - The technology sector benefits from economic recovery, technological breakthroughs, and policy support, making it sensitive to market dynamics [7] - Dividend stocks, primarily from traditional industries like banking and coal, serve as a defensive measure in volatile markets due to their high dividend yields [8] - Investors are advised to either engage in rotation strategies or maintain a focus on familiar sectors while considering a combination of dividend and technology stocks to navigate market uncertainties [9]

Group 1 - The report indicates a gradual recovery in global economic conditions, with the US economy showing weaker-than-expected performance and potential impacts from new policies [5][16][22] - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing in China, while the US and Europe are at the beginning of their easing cycles, with expectations of rate cuts in the near future [5][44][48] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, have influenced market sentiment, leading to fluctuations in asset prices, especially in gold and oil [7][30][64] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the performance of different asset classes, with gold and oil leading due to geopolitical risks, while US equities continue to rise despite mixed economic signals [7][11][27] - The report discusses the divergence in performance between A-shares and H-shares, with H-shares showing stronger performance driven by sectors like healthcare and cyclical stocks [11][61] - The report suggests that the current market environment favors a "barbell strategy" in A-shares, combining growth sectors (TMT) with dividend-paying stocks, as the economic recovery is still in verification phase [56][58] Group 3 - The report outlines the trends in interest rates, indicating that US Treasury yields are fluctuating around 4.4%-4.5%, while Chinese bond yields are around 1.6%-1.7% [64][67] - The report highlights the weakening demand for US Treasuries amid a declining dollar, suggesting a potential shift in investment preferences towards non-US assets [24][27] - The report indicates that the RMB is stabilizing against the dollar, alleviating some pressure on the currency due to the ongoing monetary policy adjustments [67][68] Group 4 - The report identifies the potential for recovery in the Chinese economy, with signs of improvement in consumption and investment, particularly in infrastructure [32][36] - The report notes that credit growth is primarily driven by fiscal measures, while household credit growth remains low, indicating a cautious recovery [32][34] - The report suggests that the outlook for the Chinese economy is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued recovery in the second half of the year [36][39] Group 5 - The report discusses the valuation comparisons between A-shares and US equities, indicating that A-shares are trading at a lower price-to-earnings ratio compared to US stocks, suggesting potential upside [54][56] - The report highlights the recovery potential in the technology sector within H-shares, which is expected to benefit from easing trade tensions and a weaker dollar [61][62] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on global markets, particularly in the context of energy prices and risk sentiment [30][64]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector and small-cap stocks are experiencing a resurgence, with specific ETFs showing significant year-to-date gains and attracting substantial net inflows, indicating a favorable investment environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) and the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) have increased by 22.02% and 20.11% year-to-date, respectively, with recent net inflows of nearly 200 million over the past 10 days [1][2]. - The Bank AH Preferred ETF has a year-to-date decline of 21.94% and a 10-day increase of 0.63%, while the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has a year-to-date decline of 20.11% and a 10-day increase of 0.32% [2]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The Huachuang Strategy Team suggests that the current financial re-inflation phase in the bull market's first half allows for the release of small-cap growth potential, with a focus on dividend assets due to their stable cash flow and dividend capabilities [2]. - The latest report from Chuang Securities recommends a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, combining high-dividend bank stocks with high-growth small-cap stocks, suitable for the current market's volatility and rapid style rotation [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Bank AH Preferred ETF offers defensive characteristics through its undervaluation and high dividend yield, achieving a year-to-date increase of 20%, while the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF captures small-cap growth opportunities through quantitative strategies, with cumulative returns exceeding 60% since inception [3]. - This investment strategy allows investors to benefit from the recovery of bank stocks driven by policy incentives while also participating in the growth potential of small-cap stocks, making it appropriate for the current uncertain market conditions [3].

今天A股 维持震荡整理走势， 市场量能萎靡至近1个月低点，市场连续两日超3500飘绿。保险与银行板块逆市上涨，白酒板块全线反攻。 白酒板块最近屡创新低，这两天开始超跌反弹了，券商分析师最近也开始建议关注白酒股。那白酒股到底能不能买？市场上有观点说，现在的白酒股越来 越像银行股了，前几年的银行股，没多少人看得起，但最近两年就属他最争气。而白酒股，前几年谁来了都得高看一眼，但从去年开始白酒股一路向下， 支撑其估值的逻辑早已发生变化。现在券商分析师看好的不是白酒股的发展前景，而是其低估值、高股息、稳定业绩预期。白酒板块现在也有变防御板块 的意思了。 最近，兴业研究发表了一篇文章，文中说了最近A股出现的一个比较罕见的现象，咱们今天来详细聊聊这事儿。 今年，机构们普遍使用 "哑铃策略"配置资产。 " 哑铃策略 " 是著名思想家塔勒布在 《 反脆弱 》 一书中首次提及的 一种对抗不确定性的方法， 映射到投资上 ， " 杠铃策略 " 不追求风险与收益的中庸 ， 而是极端分化投资组合 ， 一侧大量部署于低风险 、 防御性强的资产 ， 另一侧则是小比例持有高风险 、 高收益潜力的资产 。 这种非对称配置 既能抵 御风暴 ， 又 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the external environment and market expectations for the second half of 2025, highlighting the potential for increased volatility and the importance of a dual-track allocation strategy in investment [3][4]. Group 1: External Environment and Market Trends - Since March, the euro has appreciated against the dollar, indicating a shift of funds away from dollar assets, with non-dollar assets receiving strong liquidity support [3]. - The market has already priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the U.S. and Chinese economies, as well as shifts in international capital flows [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The article anticipates that the second half of 2025 will see increased market volatility as expectations align with reality, particularly as high-frequency data begins to validate these expectations [4]. - The article suggests that Chinese equity assets are likely to outperform overseas markets due to strong domestic policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in emerging markets [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" focusing on dividend stocks and technology growth sectors is recommended, with projected revenue growth for the CSI 300 index at 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The static valuation of the CSI 300 is considered undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term investors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report captures global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and designs corresponding investment strategies, including equity and bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity-bond target allocation strategy employs a risk budgeting design to construct a portfolio that achieves the desired allocation level, offering a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation strategies [2]. - The low-volatility "fixed income+" strategy combines domestic stocks, bonds, and gold with a target allocation of stocks:gold:bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.86% and a volatility of 3.50% over the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to May 30, 2025 [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I, which includes A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieved an annualized return of 11.23% and a volatility of 5.88% over the backtest period from January 2, 2014, to May 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - For A-shares, the report suggests maintaining a barbell strategy, focusing on high-quality assets in large caps and trading-type assets in small caps, as risks are gradually released after recent pullbacks [4]. - In the domestic bond market, the report recommends focusing on short-term products while considering medium to long-term interest rate bonds or extending the duration of credit bonds due to ongoing economic pressures [4]. - The report indicates that US stocks may continue to experience wide fluctuations due to uncertainties in economic policies and marginal declines in economic conditions [4]. - Japanese stocks may present short-term investment opportunities due to a positive wage-price spiral and continued foreign capital inflows [4]. - Indian stocks are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to marginal declines in economic conditions and outflows of foreign capital [4]. - Gold prices are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations due to easing tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts, although the long-term upward trend remains clear [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 0.9% and other indices like the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index dropping more than 1% as of June 19 [1] - Despite the overall market decline, sectors such as energy equipment and oil and gas are showing resilience and strength [2] - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities suggest that after recent market fluctuations, risks are gradually being released, and the market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation, advocating for a "barbell strategy" in asset allocation [2] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicates that the weak dollar trend, supportive capital market policies, and overall improvement in liquidity conditions in the second half of the year may lead to an upward shift in the A-share market's oscillation center [2] - The global fundamental improvement and the implementation of domestic incremental policies, along with the development of emerging industries, are expected to act as key catalysts for market growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with a notable drop in stock prices, particularly in the A-share market, influenced by various factors including institutional rebalancing and earnings reporting periods [1][2][3]. Market Performance - Over 4,000 stocks declined, but the Shanghai Composite Index was supported by banks, while the ChiNext Index saw strength in the PCB and CPO sectors [1]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards high dividend and micro-cap stocks, indicating a potential rebalancing as institutions adjust their portfolios [1][2]. NV Chain Insights - The NV chain has shown resilience, with stocks like "易中天," 胜宏科技, and 仕佳光子 performing well, reflecting a market focus on earnings-driven stocks [2][3][4]. - Recent performance data indicates significant gains for NV chain stocks, with some achieving new highs, suggesting strong investor interest [4]. Industry Catalysts - The PCB sector is experiencing a surge, driven by positive news and performance from key players, which is expected to continue as the market outlook improves [5][6]. - Marvell has revised its market size expectations for interconnect and switch markets, indicating sustained growth in related sectors, including light modules and copper cables [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. retail sales data showed a decline of 0.9%, suggesting a cooling economy, which may influence monetary policy decisions [8]. - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum features key financial leaders discussing market conditions, although it may not have a direct impact on stock prices [8]. Sector Performance - The electronic, communication, defense, banking, and power equipment sectors are leading in performance, while beauty care, real estate, construction materials, and non-bank financials are lagging [10]. - The PCB and NV chain sectors are highlighted as strong performers, with significant daily gains reported [11].

基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 近期很热的哑铃策略 究竟是什么? 策略如其名, 类似哑铃, 两 头重中间轻。 哑铃策略是塔勒布在《反脆弱》一书中首次提及 的一种对抗不确定性的方法。策略核心在于选取 风险收益特性各异且关联度较低的资产进行搭配。 中泰资管616宠粉节来啦！ 持有人参与，100%有奖，还有机会抽到 大疆 Pocket 3、足金金元宝、Labubu盲盒 等好礼！ 年度宠粉王炸： 福利天花板，抽奖管够，高中奖率！速来～ 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 扫码进入基本功专栏 ...

策略 策略报告 [TABLE_COVER] 一致预期的长尾 2025 年下半年展望 [Table_first1] 中国 A 股策略 2025 年 06 月 06 日 [Table_first3] 分析师 策略研究团队 宋劲 jin.song@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC 执证编号：S1720519120002 傅尔 er.fu@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC 执证编号：S1720524010001 65413995/61850/20250610 16:55 在美国经济避免硬着陆的基准情形下，我们看好 AH 市场下半年相对和绝 对收益机会。全球宏观预期已被市场较长期计价，目前全球市场正再度迈 入一致预期的长尾期。面对美国经济强现实弱预期、中国经济弱现实强预 期的割裂，我们认为预期与现实间的错位将在下半年逐步被高频数据所验 证，当前投资者已再度站在十字路口。国际资金推动的"去美元化"叙事将 在交易层面叠加额外波动性。 从股权风险溢价（ERP）角度来看，我们认为沪深 300 仍具配置价值。鉴 于银行业在今年经营压力增加，我们预计金融行业净利率将小幅走低，同 时基于我们对当前宏观增速的预期，我们 ...