1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches based on the specific situation of each commodity, such as waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback, selling short at high prices, or taking a wait - and - see approach [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and high copper prices leading to a need for consolidation. The supply side has low processing fees and slightly increasing domestic inventory. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract closed down 0.22% on Friday. Supply is stable with high - load production, while demand has a 1% drop in weekly aluminum product开工率. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices due to weakening price support [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract closed down 0.07% on Friday. Supply capacity increased by 400,000 tons, and demand is stable. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and buying long - term call options [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices rebounded last week. Supply is high with a slight decline in weekly output, and demand is expected to increase 2 - 3% in July before entering the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices after the market consensus is reached [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and short - term tin ore shortages. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The 2510 contract was flat. The market has a balanced supply - demand situation with low inventory pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and try a 10/1 reverse spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply - demand is neutral, and the trading strategy is to wait and set up long positions in the far - month coil - ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. The trading strategy is to wait [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans were closed on Friday. Supply is loose in the near - term and normal in the far - term, and demand is in line with expectations. The trading strategy is to follow the international cost side, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract declined. The supply - demand is tightening, but wheat substitution and increased imports may suppress prices. The trading strategy is range trading [4][5]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar had small increases. International sugar is expected to decline, and domestic sugar will follow the international trend. The trading strategy is to sell short [5]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton was closed on Friday, and Zhengzhou cotton was strong. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices and trade in a range [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Prices declined slightly on Friday. Supply is decreasing marginally but still high, and demand is increasing. The trading strategy is to focus on production and policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract was flat. Supply is high, and demand is affected by weather. The trading strategy is range trading [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and the trading strategy is range adjustment [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [6]. - **PVC**: The v2509 contract declined 0.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and the trading strategy is to wait [6]. - **PTA**: PX prices are rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking phase. The trading strategy is to hold PX long positions, do PTA positive spreads, and short processing fees at high prices [6]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract declined 0.36%. Supply is affected by rain, and demand has some pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and then short after the US tariff policy is clear [6]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract declined 0.1%. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and the trading strategy is to wait [6][7]. - **PP**: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is mixed. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is low. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - **Styrene**: The contract rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract declined 0.8%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in commodity futures, with the main contract for shipping in Europe rising over 2% [1] - Iron ore, polysilicon, styrene, and industrial silicon have all seen price increases of over 1% [1]

智通财经7月3日电，国内部分商品期货夜盘收盘，螺纹涨0.65%，铁矿涨1.44%，焦煤涨0.88%，玻璃跌 0.86%，纯碱跌0.42%。 ...

商品研究 棉花：由于美国施加的关税影响，棉花进口量未达到预期。自播种以来， 全国棉区的光照和温度总体适宜，有利于棉花的生长。目前，新疆大部分地 区的棉花已进入现蕾期，而黄河和长江流域的棉花则处于第五真叶至现蕾 期。大多数棉花的发育期比往年提前了 3 到 15 天，后续需要持续关注天气 对单产的影响。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a focus on their weak supply - demand structures [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Overall reference view:偏弱运行 [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal positive effect of common factors for energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Supply is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. Although the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained a stable oscillating trend on Tuesday night, rising 0.36% to 14025 yuan/ton, it lacks upward space. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term:震荡; Mid - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Overall reference view:偏弱运行 [1][7] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal positive effect of common factors for energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the synthetic rubber market re - dominate. The operating loads of some private cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving up last week's production and capacity utilization rate. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. In the context of a weak supply - demand structure, the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday night, falling 0.89% to 11120 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Wednesday [7]

部分 商品期货夜盘收盘，螺纹涨近1%，焦煤跌0.55%，玻璃涨0.2%，纸浆跌0.44%，纯碱跌1.15%，烧 碱涨超2%。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格继续反弹，中低卡煤由于前期港口发运利润倒挂，港口货源偏 紧，价格走势更强。库存方面，根据 iFind 统计，截至 6 月 26 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2824 万吨，周环比降 46 万吨，去库速度略有放缓，且截至目前北港库存仍维持近 5 年最高水平，迎峰 度夏基础良好。整体来看，动力煤季节性支撑走强，港口煤价全线上涨，其中低卡煤涨势较好， 随着后续气温继续走高，预计短期内煤价仍将维持偏强走势。 （仅供参考，不 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly stronger. Supply disruptions persist, and the futures market is in a volatile adjustment phase. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the July production in Shanxi coal mines [1][5] - For coke, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly weaker. With the potential increase in coking coal production after the end of the safety production month, cost - side supply disruptions re - emerge. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the actual production of coking coal [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after safety inspections, causing concerns about supply. In the week of June 27, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons and 3.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4,207 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 374 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 701.2 vehicles [5] - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [5] Coke - **Supply**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons. After the fourth price cut on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton, and the production expansion enthusiasm was average [8] - **Demand**: In the week of June 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week [8]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 主产国预期产量强劲，原糖承压 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-01 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1375.74 points, down 3.17 points or 0.23% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1907.36 points, down 4.39 points or 0.23% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic industry chain continues to show strength, with industrial silicon contracts hitting the limit up before retreating, closing with a 2.94% increase, while polysilicon surged by 4.55%, leading the domestic commodity market [3] - Multiple factors are driving the upward momentum for industrial silicon, including strong policy expectations for "price limits and production guarantees" in the photovoltaic sector, rumors of major manufacturers reducing production, and rising coking coal prices supporting costs [3] - Despite the optimistic sentiment, the market is cautious as downstream demand remains limited, and short-term feedback pressure on photovoltaic raw materials persists, which may restrict the upward price potential [4] Group 3 - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly due to production cuts in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, but prices retreated as market expectations shifted towards a recovery in coal supply post safety inspections [5] - The European shipping index continues to decline, reflecting a pessimistic market outlook, with previous price increases in the US market not sustaining, leading to downward pressure on European rates [5] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach to trading strategies, recommending short positions on high prices while acknowledging limited downward space for future contracts [5]