1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive waiting; Treasury bonds - take profit, expect a weakening trend [6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - expect a strong - side oscillation; Coking coal and coke - expect an oscillatory trend [8][9][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - mainly wait and see; Nickel - short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [13][14][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - expect an oscillatory trend; Soda ash - try short positions with light positions; Caustic soda - expect an oscillatory trend; Styrene - expect an oscillatory trend; Rubber - expect a strong - side oscillation; Urea - expect an oscillatory trend; Methanol - expect an oscillatory trend; Polyolefins - expect a wide - range oscillation [21][23][25] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - expect a strong - side oscillation; Apples - expect a strong - side oscillation; Jujubes - expect a strong - side oscillation [33][34][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - expect a strong - side oscillation; Oils - expect a strong - side oscillation [37][39][42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different futures sectors are expected to have different trends, with some in an oscillatory state, some showing a strong - side or weak - side trend, and investors are advised to make corresponding trading decisions according to different situations [6][8][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index**: Affected by factors such as the US Treasury's borrowing plan, bond auctions, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and domestic policies, the index is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see defensively [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". Attention should be paid to whether subsequent policies can boost demand. It is recommended to take profit, and the market is expected to weaken [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the price drop on Monday, the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. Considering macro - policies and industrial supply - demand, it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - policies and supply - demand, the price has adjusted downward. Although there are concerns about future supply surplus, the current support from the steel and coal markets is still strong, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has a slow supply recovery and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand balance. Both are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally [10][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, domestic consumption seasons, and economic recovery expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [13] - **Aluminum**: Due to changes in the price and supply of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Nickel**: With an oversupply in the long - term and weakening support at the mine end, it is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Although the supply - demand gap is improving, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to have support and is recommended for range trading [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by trade negotiations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven market, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [21][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slow growth rate. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract may have support in the peak season. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is favorable. It is expected to oscillate [26] - **Rubber**: Affected by raw material prices, inventory, and macro - emotions, the price is expected to oscillate strongly after a short - term decline [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory pattern is neutral. It is expected to be weak first and then strong [29] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to face a certain correction [30] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by macro - emotions and cost factors, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the price range of different contracts [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: After the price increase, the inventory has shifted to the middle - stream, and the price is over - estimated. It is recommended to try short positions with light positions [32][33] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the supply - demand relationship has changed. Affected by market sentiment and supply - demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly [33] - **Apples**: With low inventory, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in a high - level range [34][35] - **Jujubes**: Affected by the growth situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short - term [35] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: With supply - demand pressure, the short - term is near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts and wait and see for the far - month contracts, and consider arbitrage opportunities [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand may increase seasonally, but the long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts and wait for buying opportunities for the far - month contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the mid - long - term supply is tightening. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by weather and supply - demand, and the mid - long - term has a supply gap. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as palm oil production and export, soybean growth, and rapeseed supply, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant role of fiscal policy in macroeconomic regulation, particularly in the context of a sluggish global economic recovery, highlighting its importance in stabilizing the economy [1][2] - In the first half of the year, national general public budget expenditure exceeded 14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with social security and employment expenditure reaching 2.4504 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The fiscal policy has shifted from "active" to "more active," with increased intensity and scale, including over 2 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds issued and 162 billion yuan allocated for long-term special government bond funds to promote consumption [1] Group 2 - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing support for education and technology, with expenditures in these areas growing by 5.9% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The fiscal policy aims to focus on weak areas and key links in economic and social development, optimizing fiscal policy supply to provide substantial financial and policy support for high-quality development [2] - The effectiveness of fiscal policy will be enhanced through better coordination with monetary, employment, industrial, and regional policies, ensuring a cohesive approach to policy implementation [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant narrowing of the trade deficit between China and the U.S. following the Geneva high-level economic talks, with a notable increase in export growth rates and a slight uptick in import growth due to base effects [1][2][3]. Export Analysis - In June 2025, China's total exports reached $325.18 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point rise from the previous month [1][3]. - The decline in exports to the U.S. has significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.13%, an improvement of 18.39 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - Exports to ASEAN countries continued to grow rapidly, while traditional export categories saw declines, with integrated circuits and automobiles showing strong growth [5][6]. Import Analysis - China's total imports in June 2025 amounted to $210.41 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, reversing from negative growth due to base effects [2][6]. - Imports from the U.S. decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, but this decline was 2.6 percentage points less than the previous month [2][6]. - The import growth rates from Japan and ASEAN were positive, while imports from traditional bulk commodities continued to face challenges [7]. Future Outlook - The external environment for trade is expected to remain complex and volatile, with potential risks and opportunities for export growth in 2025 [8]. - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges from the real estate market and global trade barriers may persist [8].

Group 1 - The current market is characterized as a "slow bull" phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3500 points, indicating a lack of potential for a "crazy bull" market [1][2][8] - The market is in the sixth cycle since 2005, showing a disconnection between the Shanghai Composite Index and macroeconomic short cycles, reflecting a weak macroeconomic backdrop [10][20] - The management is actively working to prevent a repeat of the brief "crazy bull" markets seen in 2006-2007 and 2014-2015, which could lead to prolonged bear markets [10][20] Group 2 - The outlook for 2025 suggests a prolonged "slow bull" market, with a focus on time over height, influenced by long-term capital inflows, particularly in dividend-related sectors like banking and insurance [4][20] - The investment logic for upstream industries is challenging due to weak PPI, while downstream industries are expected to perform better, aligning with domestic consumption policies [4][20] - The consumer sector may face significant differentiation, with new consumption segments likely to attract more capital, depending on the strength of policy support [20][21] Group 3 - The 2025 market is expected to operate under a combination of the new "National Nine Articles" and a "four trillion" investment trend, with a high probability of a "slow bull" market [21] - Key areas of focus for 2025 include technology, green initiatives, consumption, and infrastructure, as highlighted in the government work report [21] - The market is anticipated to experience slight upward fluctuations in July, supported by long-term capital inflows, particularly in dividend sectors [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Liu Yuanchun emphasizes the need for macroeconomic governance to incorporate a new dimension of "coordinating macro regulation with micro governance" to address the issue of "involution" in competition, thereby solidifying the micro foundation for high-quality development [1][2] - The primary concern of the current macroeconomic environment is the persistently low price levels, which are influenced by both structural issues on the demand side, such as the decline in real estate investment, and complex supply-side shocks [1] - A significant supply shock driven by technological advancements and economies of scale has been observed, with labor productivity in China increasing by nearly 90% over the past decade, and costs for new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells significantly decreasing [1] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "involution" in pricing has led to a decline in corporate profit margins, with many industries experiencing worsening financial indicators despite technological upgrades, resulting in a situation where costs decrease but profits decline even faster [1][2] - To address the challenges of low prices and "involution," a comprehensive initiation of micro governance is necessary, shifting from a reliance on industry self-discipline to a new model of "government-led, industry-coordinated, and enterprise-implemented" policies [2] - The "2025 China Macroeconomic Situation Analysis and Forecast Mid-Year Report" highlights that the main short-term contradiction in China's macroeconomic operation is the imbalance between supply and demand, which has spread from the production side to the demand side, impacting key areas such as the labor market and real estate market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's industrial policy has long prioritized over competition policy, leading to micro-level disorder, necessitating a reorientation of industrial policy and placing competition policy at the forefront [1][2] - The current industrial sector is experiencing a phenomenon where costs are decreasing, but profits are declining even faster, indicating a need for comprehensive micro-governance to address low pricing and "involution" issues [1][2] - The focus of policy has shifted towards preventing "involution-style" vicious competition, with the Central Committee emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline and orderly competition [1][2] Group 2 - The primary concern in the macro economy is the persistently low price levels, driven by both demand-side and supply-side factors, including structural issues and the impact of technological advancements [2] - China's labor productivity has increased by nearly 90% over the past decade, with significant cost reductions in new energy sectors, indicating a shift towards new production models [2] - Despite technological upgrades, many industries are experiencing deteriorating financial metrics, with profit margins hitting historical lows due to "involutionary pricing models" leading to fierce competition [2][3] Group 3 - Overcapacity is not a new phenomenon, but the overcapacity in emerging industries and involution may signal the emergence of new systemic issues [3] - The approach to breaking the low-price phenomenon includes expanding domestic demand, social reforms, and micro-restructuring as supplementary measures [3] - A shift in policy thinking is suggested, moving from an industry-led model to a government-led, industry-coordinated, and enterprise-implemented model, elevating competition policy to a central role [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a long-term mechanism to stimulate consumption, shifting from subsidy-driven approaches to institutional innovation [8] - It highlights the importance of reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to boost marginal consumption tendencies [8] Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The article emphasizes the transition from subsidies to institutional innovations as a means to create a sustainable consumption stimulus mechanism [8] - It suggests that continuous efforts to reduce financial burdens and enhance income for residents are fundamental to improving consumption [8] Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about the potential rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.6%, analyzing the implications of tariffs and the associated risks of economic downturns [11] - It discusses the inflationary effects of tariffs and the upward risks of employment weakening, indicating a need for vigilance in economic policy [11] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article reports on the Senate's passage of the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to lead to a new round of fiscal easing in the U.S. [13] - It provides a detailed breakdown of the fiscal implications of the act, including various tax cuts and their projected impacts on the budget [14] Group 4: Economic Policy Insights - The second quarter monetary policy committee meeting highlighted the need for continued support for the real estate market and key sectors [15] - The meeting concluded that macroeconomic adjustments should focus on maintaining stable economic growth and reasonable price levels, with an emphasis on flexible monetary policy [15] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The June PMI data indicates a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, although corporate expectations have declined [17] - The article suggests that while the overall economic environment shows improvement, attention should be paid to changes in microeconomic expectations [17] Group 6: International Trade Developments - The article notes that the U.S. has officially signed a trade agreement with China, which may have significant implications for international trade dynamics [19]

Financial Policy Announcements - The People's Bank of China announced eight financial policies aimed at enhancing the openness and international competitiveness of China's financial markets, while also improving financial services for the real economy and cross-border trade [1] - The new policies are expected to attract more international capital inflow, boosting confidence in the stock and bond markets amid uncertain US-China trade policies [1] Key Financial Policies - Establishment of an interbank market trading report database to analyze transaction data across various financial sub-markets [2] - Creation of a digital RMB international operation center to promote the internationalization of digital RMB and support financial innovation [2] - Establishment of personal credit institutions to provide diversified credit products and improve the social credit system [2] - Pilot offshore trade financial services reform in Shanghai's Lingang New Area to support offshore trade development [2] - Development of offshore bonds to broaden financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - Optimization of free trade account functions to enhance efficient capital flow for quality enterprises [2] - Implementation of structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai to guide funds towards weak areas of the real economy [2] - Collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading for better risk management [2] Support for Technology Innovation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the establishment of a "growth layer" on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to support high-quality, unprofitable technology companies [3][4] - The new growth layer aims to address the challenges faced by technology firms and enhance the capital market's support for innovation [4] - Specific requirements for investor protection and risk disclosure have been established to safeguard the interests of small and medium investors [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and ferrosilicon are rated with white stars, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Silicomanganese is rated with three red stars, representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is weak, with demand expectations remaining pessimistic and limited upward space for the market [2] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure increasing and negative feedback risks in the mid - term [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are oscillating downward, but have rebounded due to factors such as downstream ironwater levels and tariff impacts [4][6] - The price of silicomanganese is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] - The price of ferrosilicon is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to fall, production declined synchronously, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil slightly declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Ironwater production is gradually falling but remains relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation persists. The improvement in the infrastructure sector is limited, real - estate sales lack sustainable recovery, and new construction and construction continue to decline significantly. In May, automobile production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the manufacturing industry still has resilience. Market sentiment is volatile, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient, and pessimistic demand expectations restrict the upward space [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices oscillated. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively strong for the same period, with seasonal growth potential in the future. The domestic arrival volume has increased and is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventories are expected to stop falling and rise, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, terminal demand weakens in the off - season. Steel mills have a good profit rate and lack the motivation for active production cuts. The short - term production cut space for ironwater is relatively limited, and there are still negative feedback risks in the mid - term. Sino - US talks have improved market sentiment, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected that iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices oscillated downward. Ironwater production slightly declined, but coking daily production remains at a relatively high level this year due to existing coking profits. The overall coke inventory slightly increased, and traders had no purchasing actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines slightly declined from a high level, and the expectation of mine production cuts has increased. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and transaction prices have continued to decline. Terminal inventories continue to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and whether the production - end inventory will continue to decline remains to be observed. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the previous price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese slightly declined. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The price of Comilog's long - term ore has been reduced by $0.15 to $4.25 per ton - degree, and the offer volume has recovered to over 400,000 tons per month. The shipment volume of South32 is likely to increase later, the manganese ore inventory accumulation rate has increased, and the price is further pressured. It is judged that the manganese ore price has started a further downward trend. Ironwater production has slightly declined, and the supply of silicomanganese has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started a trend of accumulation, market expectations have changed, and the price remains weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. Ironwater production slightly declined. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level, with overall demand being acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, the market transaction level was average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory slightly decreased. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery on the futures market and reselling to downstream, which is beneficial for ferrosilicon inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]

Long-term Importance of Rate Cuts - Since 2018, China has entered a long-term rate cut cycle, which is expected to continue due to ongoing adjustments in population, debt, and real estate cycles[8] - In 2024, China's total population is projected to be 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million from 2023, indicating a long-term trend of population decline[8] - By the first quarter of 2025, China's macro leverage ratio reached 298.4%, nearing the critical level of 300% identified as a potential financial crisis threshold[9] Short-term Importance of Rate Cuts - The contribution of net exports to GDP reached 38.9% in the first quarter, the highest since 2009, highlighting the need for internal stability amid external uncertainties[13] - Real estate assets account for 66.8% of urban residents' total assets, making housing market stability crucial for consumer spending and investment[14] - The current real estate interest rates remain high, suppressing demand, necessitating further rate cuts to stimulate the market[14] Limitations of Rate Cuts - Rate cuts cannot resolve issues such as poor interest rate transmission and rising leverage ratios, which require broader macroeconomic reforms[15] - The banking sector's net interest margin is under pressure not solely due to low rates but also due to a significant oversupply of capital in the market[16] - Domestic and international interest rate differentials are widening, with external factors influencing domestic monetary policy decisions[17] - To maintain a stable government leverage ratio by 2025, actual interest rates need to decrease to 0.32%, significantly lower than the current rate of 4.52%[17]