摘要 来源：经济学家圈 凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh） "沃什时代"的美联储 申万宏源 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美 联储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。2025年8月-2026年1月 底，最可能的"影子主席"在五位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。2017年11月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至 10月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。1）11月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立性"的担忧 ...

（央视财经《第一时间》）当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布，提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 现年55岁的凯文·沃什，职业生涯横跨美国华尔街、白宫与学术界。他早年曾在投行摩根士丹利的并购部门任职，2002年至2006年担任白宫国家经 济委员会执行秘书。2006年，年仅35岁的沃什被时任总统小布什任命为美联储理事，成为史上最年轻的理事之一。2008年金融危机期间，他的投 行背景使其成为时任美联储主席伯南克与华尔街沟通的关键纽带。在美联储任职期间，沃什以鹰派立场著称，在美联储2010年推出第二轮量化宽 松时，他对这一激进的货币政策持怀疑态度，因此投下反对票，之后从美联储辞职。 近几个月来，沃什公开支持降低借贷成本，与特朗普的立场保持一致。路透社报道称，他主张缩减美联储庞大的资产负债表，使其能够通过降低 央行的政策利率，将金融市场的过剩流动性"重新配置"到实体经济中。有经济学家在分析中指出，沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈 现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。 美国Annex财富管理公司首席经济学家 布莱恩·雅各布森：我们确实知道历史上他更为鹰派，意味着非常专注于控制通胀。然而总统特朗普一直在 寻 ...

Group 1: Key Points on Kevin Warsh's Background and Policy Proposals - Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve governor and a critic of excessive quantitative easing (QE), advocating for balance sheet reduction[3] - He has a diverse background in politics, business, and academia, having served in the Bush administration and as a Wall Street executive[3] - Warsh's policy stance includes a flexible approach to inflation, supporting faster interest rate cuts without fearing inflation rebound[3] Group 2: Immediate Market Impact - Warsh's nomination may trigger significant adjustments in commodity markets, with a notable rebound in the US dollar index and declines in precious metals[3] - The implied volatility of silver options surged from 55% to approximately 90% since January, indicating heightened market uncertainty[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Implications - Warsh criticizes the current "data-dependent + forward guidance" framework, suggesting a shift to a more strategic, long-term decision-making approach[4] - Short-term impacts include increased market volatility due to the absence of forward guidance, while mid-term effects may lead to more predictable Fed actions[4] - Warsh's new inflation theory posits that tariffs are one-time price shocks and that AI-driven productivity can lead to non-inflationary growth, supporting quicker rate cuts[4] Group 4: QE and Balance Sheet Reduction - Warsh opposes the use of excessive QE as a routine tool, supporting balance sheet reduction but has not indicated immediate plans for it[6] - Currently, there is limited space for further balance sheet reduction, as the Fed has paused this process to maintain market liquidity[6] - In the event of a crisis, QE may still be necessary, but its implementation would likely be less aggressive than in previous rounds[6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to market volatility and a rebound in the US dollar[1] - Warsh's focus is on supply-side reforms, influenced by Friedman’s monetary theories, aiming to reduce the Fed's market impact through balance sheet reduction[1] - Despite expectations for a strong dollar, Warsh is anticipated to respond to Trump's calls for interest rate cuts[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption shows stability, with metro passenger volume increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, but flight numbers and box office revenues are down by 1.4% and 13.5% respectively compared to last year[2] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a decline to 51.3%, indicating a pulse-like recovery influenced by the late Spring Festival and commodity price fluctuations[3] - CPI shows a mixed trend with vegetable prices dropping by 0.6% while egg prices rose by 3.2%[4] Group 3: External Economic Factors - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,200.5, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.5% while Brent crude rose by 1.8%, driven by geopolitical tensions[6] - The US economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.1% in Q1, with durable goods orders rising by 0.5% month-on-month, surpassing expectations[9]

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to significant market fluctuations and a rebound in the U.S. dollar[1] - Warsh's focus on supply-side reforms and a strong dollar concept may lead to a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts, despite expectations for a reduction[1] - The market is currently pricing in the risks associated with Warsh's potential balance sheet reduction strategy[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption has shown stability, with subway passenger volume increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, while the number of domestic flights decreased by 1.4%[2] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a decline to 51.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in production activity[3] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.4% week-on-week, while vegetable prices fell by 0.8%[4] Group 3: Inflation and Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.5%, while Brent crude increased by 1.3% amid geopolitical tensions[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed results, with some industrial product prices experiencing volatility due to fluctuating demand and supply conditions[6] - Consumer price index (CPI) data indicated a decrease in vegetable prices, while egg prices continued to rise due to supply constraints[4] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - Local governments issued new general bonds totaling 45.6 billion yuan, with a significant increase in special bonds issuance[8] - The total outstanding local government debt surpassed 56 trillion yuan, reflecting proactive fiscal measures to support economic growth[8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 沃什：全球"财政开源""脱虚向实"的选择 专题报告 相关报告 1、《把握金融周期的波动—— —构建招商中国金融条件指 数》2026-01-27 2、《国补"退坡如何影响通 胀？》2026-01-20 3、《2026 财年全球宽财政力度 有多大？》2026-01-16 宏观点评报告 ❑ 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期，特朗普政策超预期。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 2 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 王泺宾 S1090523070007 wangluobin@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 特朗普为什么提名沃什？第一，特朗普与沃什家族关系较为密切，而沃什 本人与财政部长贝森特师从德鲁肯米勒，这样一来白宫、财政部、美联储 之间的沟通可能更为顺畅；第二，沃什在华尔街和公共政策方面资源和经 验都很丰富，且作为前美联储理事具有信誉，其注重美联储独立性和资产 负债表纪律的鹰派底色可以让市场更加安心；第三，特朗普本就认为目前 美联储体制存在诸多问题，沃什既有改革的决心也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the nomination of Walsh to the Federal Reserve, highlighting three significant changes: a shift in decision-making mechanisms, a new inflation theory, and opposition to excessive quantitative easing (QE) while supporting balance sheet reduction. The success of these changes and their mid-term effects on dollar assets may depend more on the realization of the narrative of productivity prosperity in the U.S. than on Walsh himself [1][21]. Group 1: Walsh's Background and Policy Stance - Walsh is a former Federal Reserve governor with a diverse background in politics, business, and academia, known for being the youngest governor in Fed history at age 35 and having experience in the 2008 financial crisis [2][10][22]. - His policy stance is characterized by pragmatism, criticism of excessive QE, and support for balance sheet reduction. He is flexible on inflation, previously known as a "hawk," but now supports faster rate cuts without fearing inflation rebound [2][12][22]. Group 2: Immediate Market Impact - Walsh's nomination may trigger significant adjustments in the commodity market, potentially halting the narrative of de-dollarization, leading to a rebound in the dollar index and a sharp decline in precious metals [4][24]. - The volatility in the market is primarily driven by fluctuations, as evidenced by the increase in implied volatility for silver options, which rose from 55% to around 90% since January, far exceeding normal levels of 20-30% [4][24]. Group 3: Short- and Mid-Term Monetary Policy Implications - The decision-making framework of the Federal Reserve may shift from a "data-dependent + forward guidance" model to a more strategic, long-term perspective, potentially reducing communication and increasing policy flexibility [5][25][36]. - In the short term, the likelihood of significant rate cuts this year is low, as Walsh has not indicated a preference for drastic reductions, and the Fed remains divided on opinions [6][26][38]. - In the mid-term, if Walsh can lead the Fed to a consensus on allowing lower rates without triggering inflation, it could open up further rate cut opportunities, contingent on the realization of productivity growth narratives [19][27][38]. Group 4: Opposition to Excessive QE and Support for Balance Sheet Reduction - Walsh opposes excessive QE as a routine tool, advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to pave the way for rate cuts while avoiding excessive inflation [20][39]. - Currently, there is limited space for further balance sheet reduction, as the Fed has paused this process and resumed reserve management purchases to maintain liquidity in the money market [8][39].

北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美联 储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。 2025年8月-2026年1月 底，最可能的"影子主席"在五位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。 2017年11月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至10 月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。 1）11月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立性"的担忧；2）1月末里德概率飙升时，市场呈现"宽松-金发女 郎"交易；3）1月30日，沃什概率飙升时，市场走出"紧缩交易"，美债利率 ...

2026 年 02 月 01 日 旧制度的复兴 ——"沃什时代"的美联储 北京时间 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场 热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美联储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和 华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。2025 年 8 月-2026 年 1 月底，最可能的"影子主席"在五 位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017 年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。2017 年 11 月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至 10 月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观 此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过 80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。1）11 月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立 性"的担忧；2）1 月末里 ...

当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普终于宣布了下任美联储主席人选：美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）。沃什在正式履职前尚需美国国会参议院的批准。 8年前，特朗普在第一个任期挑选美联储主席人选时，鲍威尔与沃什是两个主要竞争者，特朗普选择了 鲍威尔。这一选择后来让特朗普懊悔不已。现在，特朗普选择了两人中的另一个。或许，特朗普以为， 他若在8年前就选择了沃什，就不用那么后悔了。 智通财经记者 荣迅 无论是第一任期，还是第二任期，房地产商出身的特朗普对于利率有着自己的强烈看法，他常常炮轰鲍 威尔降息太慢、太少。鲍威尔的美联储任期将于5月中旬结束，他还将主持3月、4月两次议息会议。 这场鲍威尔的"继承人之战"持续了数月时间，且异常激烈。除了沃什，主要角逐者还包括白宫国家经济 委员会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）、贝莱 德集团全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德（Rick Rieder）。上述4人都在不同时期登上了头号候选人 的宝座。 特朗普赢得第二任总统任期以来，沃什就积极谋取美联储主席一职，他从一个自由贸易的鼓吹者变成了 ...