来源：滚动播报 9月非农就业报告显示失业率意外上升，带动美元延续走弱态势。丹斯克银行分析师在报告中指出，此 次失业率上升源于劳动力供给增加，缓解了劳动力市场的紧张状况，从而提振了市场对美联储降息的预 期，推动美债收益率和美元小幅回落。然而，分析师强调，这一数据尚不足以构成美联储明确降息的强 有力信号，趋势难以为继。该行仍预计美联储12月将按兵不动，目前市场对降息的定价概率约为32%。 ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会（以下简称"美联储"）公布了10月联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储官员对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 会议纪要显示，许多与会者支持降低联邦基金利率目标区间，但同时也指出部分支持降息的成员对维持 利率不变同样可接受。另有数名官员反对降息。 美联储最终以10比2的投票结果通过降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率区间降至3.75%至4%。但此次纪要 表明决定是在激烈争论下勉强达成的共识，而12月是否会再度降息仍存在不确定性。 郭一鸣则表示："因为A股定价核心仍锚定国内基本面，当前稳健的货币政策与持续加码的稳增长措施 有望形成有效对冲，且市场前期已逐步消化部分外部预期，冲击幅度或处于可控范围。" 展望明年A股走势，郭一鸣预计，A股有望呈现"先抑后扬、逐步震荡上行"的慢牛格局。 "预计驱动因素将从当前的流动性宽松预期，逐步切换至基本面实质复苏的验证。全球主要国家宽财政 与宽货币的政策环境仍有利于需求回暖，国内企业盈利亦有望随经济修复而稳步回升，共同支撑市场的 中长期趋势。"郭一鸣解释说。 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一 ...

Core Insights - The cancellation of the October non-farm payroll report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has led to a decrease in investor confidence regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The delay of the November non-farm report to December 16 means the Federal Reserve will only have the September report to base its decision on, creating uncertainty about the labor market conditions for October and November [1] - A significant drop in the September non-farm report would be necessary to encourage market participants to increase bets on a December rate cut, which could weaken the U.S. dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by various factors including U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and global risk sentiment [1][2][4]. Market Analysis - Gold prices are hovering around $4060, with investors cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll report, reflecting increased sensitivity to macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. - The expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has diminished, leading to a stronger dollar, which exerts pressure on non-yielding gold [2][4]. - Global stock markets are showing positive sentiment, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4]. Technical Analysis - Recent gold price movements have been characterized by volatility, with a focus on short-selling strategies around resistance levels near $4090 [4][5]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated, as it will provide insights into the U.S. employment market and influence future Federal Reserve monetary policy [2][4]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on gold around $4090-$4100 with targets set at $4050-$4030, and potential long positions if prices retrace to $4000-$4005 [5][6]. - Emphasis on strict risk management and position sizing is highlighted to mitigate potential losses in a volatile market [5][6].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy has not significantly worsened during the longest government shutdown in history, according to Wall Street economists, who base their views on limited information, particularly weekly unemployment claims [1][3] - During the 43-day government shutdown, initial unemployment claims remained low, with estimates showing 218,000 claims in the last week before the shutdown and 228,000 in the most recent week [3][4] - Economists believe that the labor market has not experienced a sharp deterioration, despite a slowdown in hiring activity since spring [4][5] Labor Market Dynamics - The low layoff rate is crucial for the ongoing economic expansion, with the unemployment rate remaining below historical averages, previously at 4.3% before the shutdown [3][4] - However, hiring has nearly stalled, making it more difficult for job seekers, although low unemployment rates may still support consumer confidence and spending [4][5] - Structural changes in the labor market, such as the retirement of the baby boomer generation and a decrease in immigration, are contributing to the slowdown in hiring [5] Inflation Concerns - Inflation pressures remain high, with the annual inflation rate at 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% and nearly double the average inflation rate from 2010 to 2019 [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may not yet be fully realized, and persistent inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates during its December meeting [6][7] - The dual pressures of a tightening labor market and high inflation are affecting the economy, particularly impacting middle- and low-income households [6] Dollar Impact Analysis - In the short term, persistent inflation expectations may support the dollar, but medium-term pressures are accumulating, with the dollar's trajectory dependent on the interplay between inflation resilience and economic slowdown [8][9] - The dollar index showed a slight increase of 0.08% to around 99.35, indicating market reactions to inflation and employment data [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook emphasized that inflation pressures remain severe, with expectations that inflation rates will stay above the 2% policy target for the next 2 to 3 years, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy to maintain the Fed's credibility [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cook highlighted the challenges faced by the Fed in balancing its dual mandate of inflation and employment, describing the current monetary policy environment as difficult [1] - She noted that while recent economic performance seems unaffected by Fed policies, service inflation is concerning, and upcoming tariffs may further elevate inflation rates early next year [1] - Cook made a seemingly contradictory assessment of the current policy stance, stating that monetary policy is nearly non-restrictive, yet there is a need to maintain some degree of tightening to alleviate inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Response - Cook indicated that the recent rise in neutral interest rates suggests that even if nominal rates remain unchanged, the actual policy stance could become more accommodative [1] - Regarding the dollar's performance, she reassured that the recent weakening of the dollar is not alarming, as it is a correction from an extremely strong position, bringing it closer to its theoretical fair value [1] Group 3: Employment and Technological Impact - On the employment front, Cook described the current job market as seemingly balanced but still concerning, with the unemployment rate near its highest level and a softening job market posing challenges for the Fed's employment mandate [2] - She reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence in achieving employment and inflation goals, asserting that political factors do not influence monetary policy decisions [2] - Cook expressed caution regarding the impact of emerging technologies, stating it is premature to assess the effects of artificial intelligence, suggesting that time will reveal whether valuations of AI companies are justified [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD), reaching a one-year high as the USD index declines, with the onshore CNY/USD exchange rate breaking key psychological levels [1][3]. Exchange Rate Movements - On November 13, the CNY/USD exchange rate rose to 7.0959, an increase of 213 basis points from the previous trading day, marking the highest level since mid-October 2024 [1]. - The offshore CNY/USD rate also surpassed the 7.10 mark, reaching a monthly high of 7.09400 [2]. USD Index Performance - The USD index reversed its upward trend, dropping to a low of 99.2914, reflecting a decline of over 0.15% [3]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming for stability in the CNY exchange rate [3]. Analyst Predictions - Analysts predict that the CNY will remain strong in the short term, with a focus on USD trends and the PBOC's intervention in the CNY midpoint rate. The CNY is expected to maintain a stable trajectory with limited volatility against the USD, with a low likelihood of breaking the 7.0 level before year-end [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continues to run strongly. The end of the US government shutdown is expected to provide a liquidity buffer for the market, and the slowdown of US economic data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which enhances the monetary attribute of precious metals. However, the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken market risk - aversion demand and form resistance to the upward movement of gold prices. The weakening trend of the US dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend in stages. Technically, the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, with clear resistance and support levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 948.88 yuan/gram, up 12.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,880 yuan/kilogram, up 161 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold are 130,346 hands, down 6,311 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 233,585 hands, down 9,632 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110,361 hands, down 161 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 119,859 hands, up 17,973 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89,616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 591,884 kilograms, down 18,094 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 950.3 yuan/gram, up 22.2 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11,903 yuan/kilogram, up 296 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1.42 yuan/gram, up 9.3 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 23 yuan/kilogram, up 135 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings are 1,042.06 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,088.63 tons, unchanged [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold are both 1,313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total annual global demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 30.84%, down 1.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 26.95%, up 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.98%, up 1.52%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.96%, up 1.49% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of this year was 682.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. The increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 79.015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03%, and the position at the end of September was 193.749 tons [2]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the weakening of the US economy in the future and advocates a faster pace than the traditional 25 - basis - point cut. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue to cut interest rates on the basis of the 50 - basis - point cut this year with an "open mind" [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.9%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 23.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 22.7% [2]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing. The key resistance level for the London gold price is between 4,130 - 4,160 US dollars, and the strong support level is at 4,000 US dollars. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 900 - 960 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/kilogram [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has remained around the $4000 per ounce mark, showing signs of stabilization despite a slight weekly decline, influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and mixed economic signals from private sector data [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has extended to 40 days, potentially becoming the longest in history, leading to delays in key economic indicators and reliance on private sector data [2][3]. - The ISM reported a decline in the manufacturing PMI from 49.1 in September to 48.7 in October, indicating continued contraction, while the employment sub-index rose to 46, suggesting some resilience in the labor market [2]. - The ADP employment report indicated an addition of 42,000 jobs in October, significantly above the expected 25,000, and the ISM services PMI rose to 52.4, indicating ongoing expansion in the services sector [2]. Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - Over 150,000 layoffs were reported in October, the highest level for the same period in over 20 years, contributing to a decline in consumer confidence to its lowest level in over three years [3]. - Despite mixed signals, economists generally believe the U.S. labor market is cooling, leading investors to lower expectations for the Federal Reserve's December policy stance [3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with some advocating for significant reductions while others caution against rapid cuts due to inflation risks [4]. - Various Fed officials expressed differing views on the current interest rate levels, with some suggesting they are near neutral and others emphasizing the need for caution in future rate cuts [4]. Market Conditions - Short-term financing rates are stabilizing, but there are concerns about potential increases in repo rates in the coming weeks, prompting speculation about the Fed's possible interventions to stabilize market liquidity [5]. - The Supreme Court is deliberating on the legality of large-scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could have significant implications for trade and economic policy [5]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Short-term resistance for gold prices is identified in the $4030-$4060 per ounce range, with key resistance at $4080-$4100, while support is seen at $3950-$3900 and critical support at $3850-$3750 [6]. - For domestic gold futures, resistance is noted at 930-950 yuan per gram, with support at 900-890 yuan per gram and critical support at 870-850 yuan per gram [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar experienced its second-largest monthly gain in October 2023 due to a re-evaluation of risk and expectations amid a government shutdown that delayed key economic data releases. However, analysts suggest that this strength may be short-lived, with potential downward pressure expected as structural slowdowns in the labor market become apparent [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The labor market is undergoing a deeper structural cooling, with hiring rates slowing down, which is not seen as a temporary fluctuation. This trend may lead to a reassessment of economic resilience and interest rates once official employment data is released [1][4]. - Recent private employment indicators have shown signs of weakness, leading to a decline in the dollar index and increased bets on future Federal Reserve rate cuts. This indicates that the dollar's previous gains were not firmly supported by strong economic fundamentals [4][5]. - The non-farm payroll report prior to the government shutdown indicated a slowdown in employment growth, with the unemployment rate reaching a near three-year high. Additionally, corporate layoffs in October were at their highest level for that month in over twenty years, reflecting a decline in consumer spending and overall demand [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Many institutions predict that once complete employment data is available, the dollar may face renewed selling pressure, particularly against the euro, which could strengthen if labor market weakness is confirmed [4][5]. - There are differing opinions on the dollar's future; while some believe it may not enter a long-term weakening phase, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach to rate cuts, others emphasize the importance of upcoming employment and inflation data in shaping market sentiment [4][5].