Monetary Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, China's monetary policy can be divided into two phases, with a cautious approach in Q1 due to exchange rate depreciation pressures and strong market expectations [1] - In April, the focus shifted to "stabilizing growth" as the primary goal of monetary policy, leading to a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates in May [1][2] - The expectation for the second half of the year is that monetary policy will continue to emphasize "stabilizing growth," with potential for further easing measures [1][2] Economic Indicators - The growth rate of social financing increased to 8.9% year-on-year, supported by government bond financing, but may face challenges in the second half due to a potential slowdown in new government debt issuance [3] - The total scale of government bonds for the year is projected at 13.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.9 billion yuan compared to 2024 [3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The overall trend for the US dollar is expected to remain weak, influenced by concerns over US economic recession and the long-term trend of de-dollarization in global markets [3][4] - A weaker dollar is anticipated to provide effective support for the Chinese yuan, with expectations of a slight appreciation to around 7 to 7.1 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that the short-term rebound of the US dollar will not alter the overall downtrend, as investors are likely to continue withdrawing funds from US assets, leading to a long-term weakening of the dollar [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are expected to diversify their asset allocations, reducing reliance on US assets due to policy uncertainty in the US [1] - Short-term demand for safe-haven assets may support a stronger dollar, but the overall selling trend is anticipated to persist [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are actively diversifying their investments away from US assets, indicating a shift in investment strategy [1] - The short-term rebound in the dollar is not expected to change the long-term downtrend in its value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council predicts an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months, with a potential rise of 20% in 2024, leading to historical highs in the first half of 2025, driven by strong investment demand amid a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Analysts expect gold prices to consolidate with a slight upward potential of 0%-5% in the second half of 2025, depending on macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - In a bullish scenario, gold could rise by 10%-15% in the second half of 2025, potentially ending the year with a nearly 40% increase [5] - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, gold prices could retract by 12%-17%, resulting in a lower double-digit or single-digit return for the year [6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The performance of gold in 2025 has been remarkable, with a nearly 26% increase in the first half, attributed to a weak dollar, anticipated interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Increased demand from OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs has led to a record average daily trading volume of $329 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Central banks have continued to purchase gold at a strong pace, contributing to a 41% increase in total assets under management in gold ETFs, reaching $383 billion [2] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The macroeconomic outlook suggests global GDP will remain below trend, with inflation rates potentially exceeding 5% in the second half of the year [4] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain high, contributing to a generally uncertain market environment [4][5] - The weak performance of the dollar, which has seen its worst annual start since 1973, has further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 4: Investment Demand Dynamics - Investment demand is anticipated to significantly outpace consumer demand, especially in a risk-averse environment [5] - The current net long positions in COMEX futures indicate substantial room for further accumulation if market conditions worsen [6] - The potential for new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies, could provide additional support for gold prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown in inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequently affect silver prices. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June was below market expectations, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% compared to the expected 0.2% increase, and a year-on-year rate of 2.3%, lower than the anticipated 2.5% and May's 2.6% [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also disappointed, showing a month-on-month change of 0.0% (expected 0.2%) and a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, below the expected 2.7% and May's 3.0% [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that overall inflation met expectations, but core inflation was slightly lower than anticipated, contributing to a softened outlook on aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3] Silver Price Analysis - Silver prices opened at $37.708, reached a daily high of $38.079, and then fell to a low of $37.473 before closing at $37.897, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern [4] - The upward target for silver is to break through $39.11, which could pave the way towards $40.00, with the next resistance at $40.50 [5] - Downward support levels are identified at $37.50 (previous consolidation high), $36.82 (21-day EMA), and $36.00 (channel support) [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US economic outlook is dim, and the upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is expected to have a slightly bullish mid - term wide - range oscillation. [2] - Crude oil is in a multi - empty stalemate stage. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply situation. With OPEC+ maintaining an increasing production stance, crude oil has an expected supply increase, and it is bearish at high levels. [2] - Steel prices may have a narrow - range adjustment in the short term due to weakened downstream construction demand and cost support. [4] - Coal prices are likely to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, but the increase rate will slow down. [4] - Manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, with limited cost support and increasing difficulty in destocking in the future. [5] - Pig prices are expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, and interval trading is recommended. [6] - Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long when it retraces. [7] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and waiting and seeing or interval trading is recommended. [9] - It is recommended to go long on rapeseed meal at low prices, and pay attention to relevant policy and market changes. [10] - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended. [11] - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - term long when it retraces is recommended. [12] - For long - term national bonds, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July. For short - term national bonds, the short - term upward momentum may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [13][14] - The upward momentum of silver weakens, and pay attention to the relationship between gold and silver prices. [14] - For PTA, a short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate with a seasonal increase in supply and weak demand. [15] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity slightly increased, but uncertainty is high, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. The weak US economic outlook and insufficient upward momentum of the US dollar index are favorable for gold. [2] Crude Oil - In the week of July 11, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 1.3375 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply, and OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance. [2] Steel - On July 16, domestic steel oscillated weakly. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2950 yuan/ton. Three steel mills lowered the ex - factory prices of construction steel by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affects downstream construction, weakening steel demand, but cost supports steel prices. [4] Coking Coal - The开工 rate of 110 sample coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period, and the daily average output increased by 0.79 million tons. Coal prices have risen significantly since the end of June, but downstream resistance to high - price coal and profit - taking in the trading link may slow down the increase rate. [4] Manganese Silicon - The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.55%, an increase of 0.21% from last week, and the daily average output increased by 310 tons. The supply of Australian ore is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon tends to be loose in the future. [5] Pig - On July 16, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.61 yuan/kg, a 0.6% decrease from the previous day. High - temperature season, high feed cost, and weak terminal demand lead to a weak adjustment in pig prices. [6] Glass - The average price of float glass is 1179 yuan/ton, the开工 rate is 75.68%, and the total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.87% month - on - month. Terminal demand is weak, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] Palm Oil - From July 1 to 15, 2025, the yield of palm fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the palm oil production increased by 17.06%. The price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term. [9] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 28th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions increased by 2.54 million tons compared with last week. The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the addition ratio in feed is low. [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly production decreased by 0.3%, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [11] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.92% week - on - week, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] National Bonds - For long - term national bonds, expanding domestic demand is emphasized, and the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July are key. For short - term national bonds, the central bank's net investment is favorable for the bond market, and the short - term upward momentum may be stronger. [13][14] Silver - US PPI data in June was lower than expected, weakening the upward momentum of silver. Pay attention to whether gold and silver prices move in sync. [14] PTA - The CFR price of PX is 836 US dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China is 4718 yuan/ton. Polyester inventory accumulates, and demand drags down the spot price. A short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] Rubber - The price of raw rubber in Thailand is 54.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg. In the first half of 2025, rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire increased by 11.8% year - on - year, while those from Cambodia decreased by 20% year - on - year. Supply increases seasonally, and demand is weak. [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export prospects of soybeans have improved, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean futures prices, which in turn drives the rebound of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures. The technical aspect of DCE soybeans is strong, showing a rebound and oscillation trend [1][3]. - The trend intensity of both soybean meal and soybeans is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend in the day - session main - contract futures prices on the report day [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybeans 2509 closed at 4,179 yuan/ton during the day - session, up 36 yuan (+0.87%), and 4,189 yuan/ton during the night - session, up 23 yuan (+0.55%). - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2,977 yuan/ton during the day - session, down 9 yuan (-0.30%), and 3,012 yuan/ton during the night - session, up 34 yuan (+1.14%). - CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1,019.75 cents/bushel, up 17.25 cents (+1.72%). - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.1 dollars/short ton, up 3.2 dollars (+1.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was flat compared to the previous day, with different basis prices for different delivery months. - In East China, the price of 43% soybean meal was flat, with basis prices for different delivery months also remaining stable. - In South China, the price of 43% soybean meal fluctuated between - 10 and +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the basis prices for different delivery months were mostly stable [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.7 million tons per day, down from 5.65 million tons per day in the previous two trading days. - The inventory of soybean meal was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Private exporters reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 season, which was speculated to be China. - The US reached an agricultural trade agreement with Indonesia, which promised to purchase 4.5 billion dollars of US agricultural products, enhancing the market's confidence in future soybean export demand. - The US dollar was weak due to market rumors that Trump intended to remove the Fed Chairman, which usually enhances the export competitiveness of US agricultural products. - The overall weather conditions in the major soybean - producing areas in the US Midwest are favorable [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1: Inflation Dynamics - The report highlights a critical turning point in U.S. inflation dynamics, with actual tariffs rising from 2.3% at the beginning of the year to approximately 13%, potentially approaching 20% for the year if industry-specific tariffs are implemented [1] - Despite the overall CPI remaining low at 2.4% in May, economists warn that the annualized inflation rate could surge to 5% in the second half of the year, closely linked to the delayed market response to tariff policies and oil prices [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Corporate Strategies - The current inflation is being dulled by the suppression of oil prices, with Brent crude prices declining year-on-year, but this favorable impact is diminishing as oil prices have been rising since April [1] - Companies initially chose to internalize tariff costs due to concerns over consumer acceptance of price increases and the need to maintain market share, but some have begun to pass on costs, particularly in the automotive and luxury goods sectors [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Currency Trends - The report predicts a short-term rebound in the dollar, but a continued weak trend in the medium term, which historically correlates with rising import inflation [1] - A sustained depreciation of the dollar could lead to increased prices for imported goods, further elevating the CPI and creating a "tariff-exchange rate-inflation" transmission loop [1] Group 4: Industry Strategies - Morgan Stanley holds a cautious view on the energy sector while expressing optimism for mining companies, reiterating a "double upgrade" rating for the mining sector due to weak dollar conditions and low global metal inventories benefiting mining profitability [2] - The industrial sector shows differentiation, with most companies managing to offset tariff costs through price increases, but some may face profit pressure due to limitations on price adjustments [2] Group 5: Corporate Responses - Corporate strategies are characterized by three phases: initially focusing on internal cost absorption, then attempting price adjustments, and finally shifting towards supply chain optimization [3] - Examples include H&M adjusting pricing strategies, Inditex leveraging global procurement to mitigate risks, and ArcelorMittal quantifying tariff costs (approximately $800 million/year, accounting for 10% of EBITDA) while benefiting from rising U.S. steel prices [3] Group 6: Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The core strategy emphasizes that inflation rebound is driven by a combination of factors including oil prices, corporate behavior, and currency fluctuations [4] - The industry allocation recommendations reflect a preference for resource assets while cautioning about short-term pain in the industrial sector, highlighting the need for investors to monitor corporate cost transfer capabilities and supply chain resilience to seize structural opportunities amid rising inflation [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the stability of the US 10-year Treasury yield, which remains around 4.42% as investors await the upcoming inflation data [1] - Analysts suggest that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data exceeds expectations, it could reignite market speculation regarding a more hawkish interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, potentially driving yields higher and limiting the downside for the dollar [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that central banks and institutions bought an average of 77 tons of gold per month from January to May this year, with expectations for gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - The firm maintains a "long-term bullish" investment recommendation for gold, anticipating new highs in the coming quarters [1] Group 2: Currency and Trade Implications - Morgan Stanley suggests that a weaker dollar is an underestimated strong tailwind for U.S. corporate earnings, particularly benefiting large-cap companies with significant overseas profits [2] - The dollar has declined by 10% this year, marking its worst performance since 1973, with further declines expected [2] - Jefferies predicts that the Singapore dollar could appreciate to parity with the U.S. dollar within five years, representing a 28% increase [3] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce raises its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6,250 points, citing increased investor confidence and focus on the 2026 economic outlook [4] - CIBC forecasts that U.S. inflation will rise to 2.6% year-on-year in June, driven by tariff-induced cost increases [6][7] Group 4: Trade Agreements and Market Reactions - Dutch International Bank indicates that the EU still has time to negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. amid tariff threats from Trump [5] - HSBC notes that changes in U.S. policy and upcoming inflation data will likely influence the dollar's performance this week [6] Group 5: Sector-Specific Opportunities - Citic Securities highlights that the banking sector is expected to continue its upward trend in Q3, driven by undervalued stocks and a favorable earnings outlook [10] - Citic Securities also identifies potential investment opportunities in the AI sector, particularly with the release of the new Grok 4 model, which shows significant advancements in reasoning capabilities [12] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the media sector presents opportunities in areas such as IP and gaming, advanced technology applications, and companies with stable performance [16]