| II CTERER | | | 十度市临参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 | | | | | 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | 宏观金融。 | DXJE | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 图间。 美联储降息预期升温,市场情绪向好,叠加产业面存在支撑,铜 | | | | | 价偏强运行。 | | | | 有为说 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪向好,铝价回升。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 ...

据李雪松介绍，工银理财正逐步从"以产品为中心"向"以客户为中心"升级，从"以资产为中心"向"以策略为中心"升级。目前，转型已初见成 效。工银理财真含权固收+产品规模较年初增长超70%，获得渠道和客户广泛认可。 李雪松在演讲开篇指出："低利率环境不仅是挑战，更是推动行业从'资产驱动'向'策略驱动'跃迁的关键契机。" 他表示，当前市场正经历"低利率、高波动、资产荒"的复杂环境。债券市场从2024年的单边牛市格局切换为今年持续的宽幅震荡，A股市场呈 现出明显的结构分化特征。受关税摩擦、地缘政治、AI创新等多因素扰动，全球各类市场高波动特征突出。 "预计明年市场波动仍将延续，"李雪松强调，"同时监管部门深化推进净值化转型，明确对估值方法的整改要求。在明年估值'魔法'消失后，依 靠单一资产、单一策略将难以为继。" 面对这一市场环境，李雪松提出了明确判断，"'固收+'将成为理财行业乃至整个资管行业发展的胜负手。"他进一步阐释道，长期来看，股债 相关性不稳定，甚至阶段性呈现"高相关性、同向波动"特征，通过多资产的低相关和分散化配置、多策略的多元化和工具化组合，更能为客户 打造稳稳向上的净值曲线。 11月22日，在"第二十届 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: DREIE (equity index), Copper, Zinc, Tin (medium to long - term), Short - fiber [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Mono - crystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Bilateral steel, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Silicon carbide, Rare earth metals, Soda ash, Coke, Coking coal, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Livestock, Crude oil, Natural gas, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, TEPG, PG [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Fuel oil, Asphalt, Benzene ethylene [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's oscillating adjustment, and the index may rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The support from Central Huijin provides a buffer, and the risk of index decline is controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut improves the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on the prices of various metals and energy - chemical products. The fundamentals of different industries also play a crucial role in price trends [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **DREIE**: The market divergence will be digested during the index's adjustment, and the index may rise further. The support from Central Huijin reduces the downside risk. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and industrial support lead to a strong price [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is positive, and the price has rebounded due to limited industrial drivers [1]. - **Alumina**: The production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price oscillates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The reduction in processing fees leads to a production cut in December, supporting the price, which is oscillating strongly in the short - term but with upward pressure [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation warms the sentiment. The impact of Indonesia's restrictions on smelting projects is limited. The price has rebounded after a decline and may oscillate with the macro - environment. The long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The raw material price has stopped falling, and the futures price oscillates. Short - term trading is recommended, and a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy can be considered [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa support the price. The demand pressure remains, and chasing high prices requires caution. The medium - to long - term outlook is positive [1]. Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: After a sharp rise and fall, the short - term upward trend may slow down, and the price will oscillate. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in December provides support [1]. - **Platinum**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Palladium**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the [long - platinum short - lithium] arbitrage strategy can be continued in the medium - term [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in the northwest is recovering, and the production in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The production schedule in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in organic silicon [1]. - **Mono - crystalline silicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally, and large manufacturers are reluctant to deliver goods [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and Bilateral steel**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis - positive arbitrage positions. Do not chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese silicon and Silicon carbide**: The direct demand is fair, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, and the inventory is accumulating, limiting the price rebound [1]. - **Rare earth metals**: The supply and demand are supportive, and the valuation is low, but the price fluctuates strongly due to short - term sentiment [1]. - **Soda ash**: It follows the trend of glass, but the supply and demand are average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. - **Coke and Coking coal**: The valuation suggests that the price decline is approaching the end. The downstream may start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. Short - term trading is recommended for now [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is high. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. The downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is currently in a state of "supported but lacking drivers" [1]. - **Corn**: The short - term downstream inventory is low, and the market acquisition enthusiasm is high. The spot price is firm, and the futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Weather changes in South America should be monitored [1]. - **Pulverized coal**: The futures price has risen sharply due to low - warehouse - receipt trading, and the short - term fluctuation is expected to be large [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weak but have been priced in the market. Chasing short positions after a large price decline has a low risk - return ratio [1]. - **Livestock**: The spot price has gradually stabilized. The demand provides support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel oil and Asphalt**: They have a negative outlook due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the possible falsification of demand, and high profits [1]. - **BR rubber**: There is strong raw material cost support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the inventory may accumulate. The high - inventory situation restricts the price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and factors such as India's cancellation of import certification restrictions improve the export prospects and boost the purchasing sentiment [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the price decline due to inventory accumulation. The cost support from coal is weakening, and the expected new device production suppresses the price increase [1]. - **Styrene**: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced gasoline demand in the US [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: The supply pressure is high due to factors such as high operating loads and new capacity releases, while the downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are factors such as delivery delays of alumina, high operating loads, inventory pressure in Shandong, and the risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **TEPG and PG**: The geopolitical and tariff situations are easing, and the market is expected to return to a loose fundamental logic. The price of PG oscillates in a range after a decline [1]. Others - **Container shipping on European routes**: The price increase in December fell short of expectations, the peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment this year, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers a layout opportunity for the index's further rise next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, improving the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on various commodities Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The recent market adjustment provides a layout opportunity for the index's rise next year. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the discount structure of index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the market sentiment is positive, and the industrial side provides support, so the price is running strongly [1] - **Aluminum**: The recent industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment is positive, leading to a price rebound [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line. Attention should be paid to the change in ore prices [1] - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the macro - sentiment is improving. The reduction in processing fees in December led to a production cut of over 30,000 tons, improving the fundamentals and supporting the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term but faces upward pressure [1] - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. The nickel price has rebounded after position reduction. In the short term, it may oscillate with the macro - situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, primary nickel remains in an oversupply situation [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. The raw material price has stopped falling. In the short term, it is oscillating. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of selling at high levels for hedging [1] - **Tin**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is improving. Due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, the price is rising. However, considering the demand pressure, be cautious when chasing high. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels during the callback [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Affected by the silver squeeze and the high probability of a December interest - rate cut, the price may run strongly [1] - **Silver**: The squeeze sentiment is fermenting, and the price is rising strongly. It is bullish in the short term, but be vigilant against high volatility [1] - **Platinum**: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price still has a premium over the foreign market, so the volatility may be relatively large [1] - **Palladium**: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price is higher than the foreign market. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. The medium - term long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: The northwest production capacity is resuming, and the southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and the terminal installation is increasing marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule decreased in November, and there was a joint production cut in the organic silicon industry. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production and increasing production. The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum [1] Building Materials and Steel - **Rebar**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - arbitrage positions. Do not chase high for unilateral trading, and appropriate participation in spot - futures positions is recommended [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the macro - drive in December provides rebound momentum, and basis positive - arbitrage positions can be rolled and participated in. Do not chase high for unilateral trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, take a short - term view for unilateral trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash - out the short - hedging positions [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but the short - term price is driven by sentiment and fluctuates strongly. Soda ash follows glass, but the upward price resistance is relatively large [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1] - **Rapeseed**: The industry is optimistic about the supplement of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. Consider short - selling opportunities [1] - **Cotton**: The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no drive". In the future, pay attention to the central No. 1 document's tone on direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the peak season [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has changed from shortage to surplus, and the raw sugar price is under pressure. The domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased compared with the same period last year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be under pressure and follow the raw sugar [1] - **Grain and Oil Crops**: The short - term replenishment demand of downstream low - inventory cannot be met in time due to logistics and weather factors, resulting in a phased supply - demand mismatch. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the South American weather. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for unilateral trading and the spot basis [1] - **Paper Pulp**: There have been cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new warehouse receipts recently. The recovery of the demand side remains to be verified, and it is oscillating in the short term [1] - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but it has been priced in the market. The profit - loss ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline in the market is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: The recent spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1] - **Fuel Oil**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for catch - up work during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is relatively high [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material cost provides strong support, the basis between futures and spot is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] - **BR Rubber**: The support of butadiene price is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation to the market. The supply price of mainstream butadiene rubber has been significantly reduced, but rubber factories still have profits and strong processing willingness. The high - inventory and loose fundamentals still suppress the upward price movement, but the current synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound range [1] - **PTA**: OPEC's production increase is slowing down, the US's action expectation on Venezuela is wavering. The domestic PTA manufacturers' export prospects have improved, boosting the PX procurement sentiment [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. The coal price is falling, and the domestic cost support for ethylene glycol continues to weaken. The domestic device commissioning expectation strongly suppresses the rise of ethylene glycol [1] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of PTA has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has also strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1] - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has decreased, and the cost support for styrene has weakened [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from the anti - internal - roll and the cost side [1] - **Propylene**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is at a high level, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the high - level propylene monomer provides strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The market is returning to fundamentals. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, the supply will increase, the demand will weaken, and the orders are not good [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants in Guangxi have started to deliver goods, and some alumina plants have delayed production. The delivery rhythm has slowed down. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls. There is a pressure of inventory accumulation in Shandong caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of a squeeze [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of loose fundamentals. CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The ethylene device of Maoming Petrochemical in South China is planned to be overhauled, and there is an expectation of an increase in civilian supply from now to January. The combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a supplementary decline. Pay attention to the rise of the near - month price affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、白银价格创下新高。中国白银库存降至 715.8 吨的七年新低。这一行情不仅反 | | | | 映 | 10 月份中国创纪录出口 660 吨白银引发的供需失衡，更印证供应驱动型涨价正 | | | | | 从贵金属向工业金属蔓延，成为大宗商品的普遍趋势。 | | | | | 2、半夏投资创始人李蓓表示，富人面临财富无处安放的资产荒。股市赚钱效应将 | | | | | 引发居民储蓄搬家、国内机构资产配置重构，更会触发全球资金重新配置、海外资 | | | | | 本回流中国市场的浪潮。这一轮行情非常可能会泡沫化，达到相当的高度。 | | | | | 3、马斯克表示，未来 SpaceX、特斯拉和 xAI ...

12月首个交易日，银行板块低开高走，午后单边向上。截至收盘，A股42只银行股37股收涨，厦门银行 领涨逾5%，张家港行涨超4%，齐鲁银行涨超3%，南京银行、沪农商行等4股涨逾2%。全市场规模最大 的银行ETF（512800）场内价格收涨0.72%，站上5日、10日线，全天成交额10.8亿元，环比小幅放量。 | 分时 零日 1分 * 绿合屏 F9 前震权 超级盘加 面式 工具 @ (2 > | | | 银行ETF ① | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800.SH 银行ETF] 2025/12/01 收 0.842 幅0.72%(0.006) 开0.833 高 0.84回 | 0.842 +0.006 +0.72% | | 512800 | | | MAS 0.8411 MA10 0.8411 MA20 0.8411 MA60 0.8227 MA120 0.0411 MA2602 T = | SSE CNY 15:00:17 闭市 查看L2全景 | | | 第二十二 | | 115017 | 净值走势宝中让银行ET | ਟੇਸ਼ੇ 13.34% 120日 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted expectations for a significant bull market in A-shares, driven by global capital inflows and the recovery of leading companies' profitability amidst current economic challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - Wealthy individuals are facing an "asset scarcity" dilemma, with low returns on real estate and high uncertainty surrounding dollar-denominated assets due to the U.S. fiscal deficit [8][11]. - The current A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are in the first phase of valuation recovery, with the risk premium returning to average levels, but not yet reaching extremes [4][66]. - The overall valuation of the stock market remains low, with significant potential for upward movement as household savings are increasingly funneled into the stock market through dividend insurance products [1][4]. Group 2: Stages of the Bull Market - The bull market is expected to evolve in three stages: 1. Valuation recovery, where market confidence is tested and requires tangible improvements in economic data and corporate earnings [3][4]. 2. Profit verification, where investors will need to see substantial earnings growth to further engage in the market [4]. 3. A wealth effect-driven reallocation of assets, leading to a significant influx of global capital into Chinese markets [3][4][66]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The current investment strategy should focus on "flowers blooming in winter," targeting resilient leading companies that can provide stable returns despite economic downturns [4][62]. - As the market transitions to a more favorable environment, the potential for a significant bull market is anticipated, attracting global capital [4][72]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Leading companies in the real estate sector are showing signs of profitability recovery, with improved margins due to a reshaped competitive landscape and increased market share [6][59]. - The profitability models of top real estate firms have been restructured, allowing them to maintain stable profit margins even in a challenging market [6][59]. Group 5: Global Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding dollar-denominated assets is increasing, with a notable rise in the currency conversion ratio indicating a lack of confidence in U.S. assets [7][15]. - The high fiscal deficit in the U.S. is undermining confidence in the long-term value of the dollar, while the stock market is facing potential corrections due to high valuations and concerns over AI sector bubbles [8][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The infrastructure REITs are expected to expand further, promoting high-quality development in the REITs market. The National Development and Reform Commission has announced plans to broaden the scope of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities [5][13] - The REITs market is experiencing a decline in trading volume and value, with a significant year-on-year decrease of 19.83% in trading volume and 5.86% in trading value [27][29] - Despite recent declines, the REITs sector is anticipated to benefit from lower bond market interest rates and increased policy support, enhancing its attractiveness as a high-dividend, low-risk asset class [4][6] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI REITs closing index for week 48 of 2025 was 809.07, up 6.07% year-on-year but down 0.14% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index was 1040.34, up 12.01% year-on-year but down 0.08% month-on-month [6][15][20] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs closing index has increased by 6.96%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 31.93%, resulting in an excess return of -24.97% [15][20] Weekly Performance - In week 48, the weekly performance of various REITs sectors showed that affordable housing REITs increased by 1.04%, while other sectors like environmental, highway, industrial park, warehousing logistics, energy, and consumer REITs experienced declines [37][54] - Monthly performance for affordable housing REITs showed a decrease of 0.88%, with other sectors also reporting negative changes [37] Primary Tracking - There are currently 13 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating an active issuance market. Notable funds include Ping An Xi'an High-tech Industrial Park and Dongfang Hong Tunnel Intelligent Operation Highway REITs, which have submitted their initial applications [7][54] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, suggesting that the REITs sector presents good investment opportunities amid ongoing policy support and market dynamics [4][5][6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that by the end of 2024, the total assets under management (AUM) of 34 insurance asset management companies will reach 33.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] - The total revenue for the year is projected to be 31.83 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.31% [1] - However, there are concerning trends in the sources of managed funds and the structure of insurance asset management products, with a decline in third-party fund growth and a negative growth rate in insurance asset management products for the first time in five years [1][2] Fund Sources and Third-Party Funds - The growth rate of third-party funds, including third-party insurance funds and external funds, has declined, with third-party insurance funds experiencing a negative growth rate of -1.5%, down 13.42 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Pension fund growth has decreased by 44.26 percentage points to 22.93%, while bank funds have seen a significant drop of -11.73%, down 89.1 percentage points [2] - The proportion of internal insurance funds has decreased from 73.04% in 2022 to 70.56% in 2024, indicating a decline in the share of third-party funds [2] Product Management and Market Trends - By the end of 2024, the balance of insurance asset management products is expected to be 8.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 461.3 billion yuan, marking a -5.41% growth rate, the first negative growth in five years [4] - The balance of combination-type insurance asset management products has decreased by 3.87%, while the total issuance of debt investment plans has dropped by 36.76% [4] - The decline in product attractiveness is attributed to increased market volatility and competition, leading to a shift in funds towards long-term interest rate bonds [4][5] Future Outlook - Experts predict that from 2025 onwards, the impact of new deposit regulations will diminish, and pension fund growth will continue to exceed 20%, becoming a key stabilizing factor for third-party funds [5] - The insurance asset management industry is expected to maintain a dominant position of internal funds, while the scale of non-standard asset management products will continue to shrink [5] - There is an anticipated recovery in third-party funds, particularly in equity-related products, as the capital market stabilizes [5]

固定收益定期 年末还有抢跑行情吗？ 本周债市再度出现调整。本周10年和30年国债利率分别上升2.5bps和2.7bps 至 1.84%和 2.19%。3 年和 5 年二级资本债分别上行 5.5bps 和 3.2bps。1 年 AAA 存单利率相较上周小幅上升 0.5bps 至 1.64%。 债市调整背后依然是机构行为变化的结果。一方面，银行年末面临指标压力与 兑现浮盈需求，配置力量不足；另一方面，公募基金费率改革等影响之下，公 募基金被动赎回带来抛压短期增加。叠加券商等部分交易性机构助推市场趋 势，市场出现调整。但这种调整是否会持续呢，特别是临近年末，往年多次发 生的"抢跑"行情是否会再度发生呢？ 往年 12 月债市多季节性走强，债市呈现出较为稳定的"抢跑"特征。过去 5 年，12 月债市基本上都是走强的，2020-2024 年无一例外，10 年国债利率在 12 月均是下行的，平均下行 14.0bps，其中 2024 年下行幅度最大为 34.5bps， 即使不考虑 2024 年，2020-2023 年也平均下行 8.9bps。年末多次发生抢跑效 应，这个不仅在债券牛市中发生，如 2021 年和 2024 年末 ...