Core Views - The core consumer price index in July increased by 0.322%, aligning closely with expectations, but the details indicate a dovish stance for the core personal consumption expenditures price index [1][2] - Inflation risks are still tilted upwards, with tariff-related price pressures continuing to manifest in goods inflation, particularly as auto manufacturers transition to new model years [3][4] Economic Outlook - The company anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, followed by further cuts in December and March of the following year, as employment data shows significant deterioration and inflation pressures are lower than previously feared [4][5] - Despite the economic growth outlook worsening since June, there are no signs of stress in the labor market or financial conditions, which reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut [5] Inflation Dynamics - The core personal consumption expenditures price index forecast for July has been revised down to a month-on-month increase of 0.243%, suggesting that both year-on-year and three-month annualized growth rates will be slightly below 2.9% [3] - The average month-on-month growth rate for the core personal consumption expenditures price index in June and July was only 25 basis points, lower than the Federal Reserve's June economic forecast of 3.1% for year-end [3]

新华财经北京8月14日电 美国财政部长贝森特在接受彭博电视专访时，首次明确表态认为日本央行应加 快加息步伐以应对通胀风险，直言其货币政策已"落后于形势"。这一言论与日本央行行长植田和男坚持 渐进式紧缩的立场形成直接交锋，引发市场对日本货币政策转向的密切关注。 贝森特在采访中强调，日本面临的通胀压力正在累积，且这种态势已对全球资本市场产生连锁反应。他 指出，美国30年期国债收益率近期走高的部分动因来自日本及德国长期债券收益率的攀升，暗示海外央 行政策调整正重塑全球资本流动格局。"我的判断是，日本央行确实落后于形势，因此他们将会加 息。"贝森特如是说，但未对具体加息时点作出预测。 此番表态与日本央行行长植田和男的公开立场形成鲜明对比。尽管植田和男承认存在加息可能性，但其 始终以"潜在通胀尚未达标"为由维持审慎态度。所谓"潜在通胀"，主要指剔除鲜食品和能源的核心CPI 指标，该指标需稳定达到2%以上方符合日本央行的政策目标。然而，部分国际分析师质疑这一标准过 于保守，认为日本央行政策正常化进程缓慢已导致日元持续贬值，进而推升进口成本并加剧国内通胀螺 旋。 贝森特透露，他此前已与植田和男就此展开过直接沟通，但未透露对 ...

Group 1 - The average trade-weighted tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on all products has risen significantly to 20.11% as of August 7, up from 2.44% at the beginning of the year [1] - The U.S. government aims to bring manufacturing back to the country through its tariff policy, claiming it will reduce trade deficits and create jobs [1][5] - Evidence suggests that while tariffs may force some industries to adjust in the short term, they are not a long-term solution to the challenges facing U.S. manufacturing [1][5] Group 2 - Ford Motor Company is expected to suffer a profit loss of approximately $2 billion due to tariffs, despite being a potential beneficiary of the tariff policy [3][4] - General Motors reported a loss of $1.1 billion in the second quarter due to tariffs, while Stellantis estimated a loss of $350 million [2][3] - The combined profit loss for the U.S. automotive industry due to tariffs is projected to reach $7 billion by 2025 [2] Group 3 - The tariff policy has led to a misallocation of resources, pushing them towards low-end manufacturing sectors that have lost comparative advantages, resulting in decreased overall production efficiency [4][7] - The tariffs are causing a rise in manufacturing costs by 2% to 4.5%, leading to stagnant income, layoffs, and potential factory closures [7] - The structural issues within U.S. manufacturing, such as labor shortages and aging infrastructure, are exacerbated by the tariff policy, making it difficult for the industry to recover [9][10] Group 4 - The U.S. manufacturing sector's recovery is hindered by the long-term negative impacts of the tariff policy, which may lead to persistent inflation and slowed job growth [6][8] - The disparity between foreign direct investment intentions and actual investments indicates that promised investments may not materialize, undermining the effectiveness of the tariff policy [8][9] - The structural problems in U.S. manufacturing, including a shift towards service industries and a lack of skilled labor, complicate the goal of revitalizing domestic manufacturing through tariffs [10]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed positive recovery last week, with rapid sector rotation observed[13] - The total margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating high market sentiment[37] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.1 basis points, reflecting a warming bond market[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, with rare earth exports reaching 5,994.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July recorded a year-on-year change of 0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%[23] - Exports to the EU and Africa increased by 9.2% and 42.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery in overseas demand[18] Group 3: External Factors - The MSCI developed markets index rose by 2.38%, while the MSCI emerging markets index increased by 1.78% last week[31] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a key event to watch[37] - The U.S. imposed a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, which may impact market volatility[31]

Group 1 - The core concern is whether the weakness in the employment report reflects a decrease in labor demand or a labor shortage, or possibly both [2] - The uncertainty caused by the "tariff turmoil" since April may have led many employers to delay hiring plans, but this uncertainty should have decreased now, suggesting that hiring activities should resume [2] - The labor supply has stopped growing due to the Trump administration's effective border closure and ongoing deportation actions, indicating that the Fed should pause rate cuts to avoid exacerbating labor shortages and increasing inflation [2][4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll report showed weakness, and the duration of unemployment has been steadily increasing, making a case for the Fed's easing policy [4] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits remain low, indicating a low layoff rate, while the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits has been rising, confirming that the duration of unemployment is lengthening [5][6] - The decision on whether the Fed will cut rates in September largely depends on the CPI inflation reports for July and August, with expectations that these data will show an increase due to tariffs [8][9]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在美联储理事库格勒意外提前辞职后不到一周，新任理事人选火速出炉。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月7日，美国总统特朗普表示，已选定现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬 ·米兰接替刚刚空出的美联储理事席位，任期至2026年1月31日。特朗普还称，将继续寻找长期的美联储 职位替代者。 米兰曾在特朗普第一任总统任期内担任美国财政部经济政策高级顾问，拥有哈佛大学经济学专业的博士 学位，是"海湖庄园协议"总设计师。 权宜之计 8月1日，美联储发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒辞去美联储理事的职位，于本月8日正式卸任。库格勒 的理事任期原定于明年1月结束，其提前离职使得特朗普可提前进行新一轮人事任命。 米兰在美联储理事会的任期只有几个月，特朗普任命米兰为临时理事无疑是"权宜之计"，为后续提名14 年任期的理事甚至下一任美联储主席铺路。 Evercore ISI高级经济学家兼策略师Marco Casiraghi表示，特朗普选择米兰是权宜之计，给自己留出了在 明年1月之前做出最终决定的时间。这样一来，特朗普就不会束缚自己的手脚，在新任美联储理事和美 联储主席人选上能保留一些选择。 长期以来米兰一直批评鲍 ...

钛媒体App 8月7日消息，英国央行行长贝利：央行不应该降息太快或太多。不预计通胀回升会持续下 去。价格和工资压力程度不同。到年底薪资增长将放缓至略低于4%。第二轮效应风险更受关注。食品 和能源价格对消费者来说很重要。劳动力市场放松，经济增长放缓。消费者比预期更谨慎。通胀风险转 向上行。经济活动下行风险略高。将采取一切必要措施实现2%的通胀目标。（广角观察） ...

美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席、2026年FOMC票委卡什卡利释放明确信号，即放缓的美国经济可能使美联 储在短期内下调利率成为适宜之举，此番表态强化了市场对美联储年内启动宽松周期的预期，尽管关税 带来的通胀影响依然充满不确定性。 8月6日，卡什卡利在接受媒体采访时表示，"经济正在放缓"，因此"在短期内开始调整联邦基金利率可 能变得合适"。 他重申，他个人仍预计到今年年底会有两次降息。这一立场与美联储上周刚刚做出的连续第五次维持利 率不变的决定形成对比，并对决策层普遍持有的"观望"态度构成了挑战。 卡什卡利的表态正值关键时刻。上周弱于预期的就业报告显示，截至7月的三个月里，美国招聘活动显 著放缓，这已让外界开始质疑美联储在9月会议前继续等待更多数据明朗化的策略是否依然可行。 "在关税影响变得清晰之前，我们还能等多久？这个问题现在正困扰着我。" 他认为在所有选项中，现在进行一些调整，即便之后可能需要暂停甚至逆转，也可能比"坐等关税问题 明朗化"要好。 卡什卡利明确了他对年底前降息两次的预期，但同时也为这一预测附加了重要前提，即通胀风险得到控 制。他补充说，如果有关税导致的通胀效应可能持续存在的迹象，那么美联储官员最终可 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[7] - The decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 9 in favor and 2 against, indicating growing internal divisions within the Fed[7] - The Fed's description of the U.S. economic outlook was slightly downgraded, reflecting concerns over economic activity slowing down[7] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation risks are currently perceived to be higher than growth risks, complicating the Fed's decision-making process[7] - The market anticipates an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and a 95% probability of cumulative cuts by October, suggesting a significant expectation of easing monetary policy[7] - The report highlights risks of a hard landing for the U.S. economy and a potential rebound in inflation, which could hinder future rate cuts[3] Group 3: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Three distinct factions have emerged within the Fed regarding interest rate policy: those favoring no cuts, those advocating for delayed cuts, and those pushing for immediate cuts[7] - The internal divisions are primarily driven by differing views on inflation and ongoing political pressures affecting the Fed's independence[7] - The report suggests that the current inflation rebound is largely driven by high import dependence and low inventory levels, while domestic service inflation continues to decline[7]

美国经济与通胀担忧升温，花旗推翻此前的悲观预测，大幅上调黄金目标价。 花旗周一发布报告，将未来三个月的黄金目标价从每盎司3300美元上调至3500美元，交易区间从3100-3500美元上调至3300-3600美 元。 报告认为，美国经济前景恶化和通胀担忧升温将推动金价创下新高，这一立场与其此前的看空预期形成鲜明对比。 美国经济增长和与关税相关的通胀担忧将在2025年下半年持续升温，这与美元走弱共同作用，将推动金价适度上涨至历 史新高。 该行特别强调了2025年第二季度美国就业市场的疲软表现，以及市场对美联储和美国统计数据可信度的担忧上升。此外，俄乌冲突 等地缘政治风险持续升温，进一步增强了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。 特朗普政府上周对多个贸易伙伴国实施的高额关税，成为推动花旗上调金价预期的另一重要因素。 据央视新闻，美国贸易代表格里尔周日表示，美国总统特朗普上周对多国加征的新一轮关税"基本已定"，不会在当前谈判中作出调 整，包括对从加拿大进口的商品征收35%关税、对巴西征收50%关税、对印度征收25%关税、对瑞士征收39%关税。 黄金需求强劲增长 花旗指出，自2022年中期以来，黄金总需求已增长超过三分之一，推 ...