Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months since December 2024 [1] - Following the announcement, the US dollar index fell by 0.13% to 96.48, while the New York stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 260.42 points (0.57%), the S&P 500 declining by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 0.33% [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management measure" aimed at addressing the current complex economic environment, noting that inflation risks have eased since April due to a cooling labor market and slowing GDP growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve forecasts two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, which is one more than the prediction made in June, and anticipates an additional 25 basis point cut each year for the next two years [1] - The FOMC will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities while maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The Fed projects a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, an increase from the June forecast of 1.4%, with a long-term growth rate expectation of 1.8% [1]

智通财经APP注意到，美联储主席鲍威尔驳斥了债券交易员的押注——这些交易员预计美联储将通过一系列激进的 降息来防止美国经济停滞。 尽管美联储如普遍预期那样将基准利率下调了25个基点，并预计今年还将有两次此类降息，但这位美联储主席表明 他并未放弃谨慎态度，仍然警惕通胀风险。政策制定者也没有屈服于美国总统特朗普要求更大幅度降息的压力，唯 一的异议来自总统刚刚任命至美联储理事会的一位白宫顾问。 这使市场对本次会议抱有很高的期望，并埋下了债券市场再次回调的风险——自疫情结束以来，债券市场已多次因 美联储的行动而措手不及。也有人猜测，特朗普的压力会通过驱使一些人推动更大幅度的降息，从而在美联储理事 会内部造成分歧。 债券交易员认为，这一立场表明，即使就业市场步履蹒跚，货币政策的路径仍远未确定。因此，美联储最初决定后 出现的国债短暂上涨行情逐渐消退，推动10年期收益率在美国交易时段结束时上涨6个基点至4.09%。 鲍威尔明确表示，他准备放松政策以阻止劳动力市场恶化，他表示他不再认为劳动力市场"非常稳固"。但他强调， 美联储远未转入救火模式，并表示仍需要确保特朗普的关税不会重新引发通胀，且政策制定者仍处于"逐次会议决 策的 ...

东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对记者分析称，尽管美联储主席在FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）中对货币政策决议只有一票，在形式上与其他委 员一致，但作为美联储的核心人物，其无论是在对内设置会议议程与引导讨论，还是在对外沟通表态上，均能对货币政策整体风向产生举足轻 重的影响。由于鲍威尔任期即将于2026年5月到期，因此选择一位更加鸽派的主席候选人成为了特朗普目前对美联储独立性干预最直接的手 段。 从种种迹象来看，美联储独立性面临的挑战才刚开始，一场更大的风暴或在酝酿。 图片来源：新华社 美联储独立性风暴暗流涌动。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月16日，美国白宫发言人表示，特朗普政府将就法院阻止撤换美联储理事莉萨·库克的裁决提出上诉。此前美国联 邦上诉法院裁定，阻止美国总统特朗普在美联储议息会议召开前将理事莉萨·库克撤职。 与此同时，特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰于16日宣誓就职，火速参与美联储9月利率决议，他与库克共处美联储会议桌的同一个角落， 两人之间仅隔着1名理事。 而到了明年，美联储主席鲍威尔将卸任，特朗普将通过提名新任主席对美联储施加更大影响。 罢免库克事件争议重重 特朗普政府罢免库克一案被视为对美联储独立性的 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT [1] - A surprise 50 basis point rate cut could lead to significant selling pressure on the USD, while a 25 basis point cut with a dovish outlook could weaken the dollar [3] - Market participants will closely monitor Powell's comments regarding labor market and growth outlook, as concerns may negatively impact the USD, while inflation risks could support it [3] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may indicate a total rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025, which is 25 basis points higher than the June forecast [3] - There may be differing opinions within the committee, with potential for three members advocating a 50 basis point cut, marking a significant divergence not seen since 1988 [3] - The short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD remains slightly bullish, with the RSI above 50 and trading above the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages [4] Group 3 - EUR/USD may test resistance levels at 1.1900 and 1.2000, with the first resistance at 1.1830, while support is seen at 1.1680-1.1660 and subsequently at 1.1540 [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are expected to implement interest rate cuts to address the weakening labor market in the U.S. This marks a shift in monetary policy after a period of inaction due to inflation concerns related to tariffs [1][4] - President Trump has been pressuring for significant rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The final attendance list for the meeting may be confirmed on the evening before, with a new board member being confirmed by the Senate [1][4] - The upcoming press conference by Chairman Powell will provide insights into the latest economic forecasts and potential future interest rate directions [4] Group 2 - Analysts note that while officials may agree on rate cuts, disagreements regarding labor market conditions and inflation risks could hinder more aggressive measures. Continuous deterioration in the labor market is necessary for further rate cuts to be considered [4][5] - The composition of the Federal Reserve's voting members is under scrutiny, especially with the recent appointment of Trump's ally, Stephen Moore, which raises questions about the independence of the board [4][5] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the expected 25 basis point rate cut, with some officials advocating for larger cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates due to concerns over labor market and inflation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market's focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with particular attention to Jerome Powell's tone regarding inflation risks and uncertainties [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, and it is expected to be a significant event for market participants [1] Jerome Powell's Tone - The key factor will be Jerome Powell's emphasis on inflation risks or the uncertainty surrounding inflation outlook, which could influence market expectations for interest rate cuts [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Guinea rainy season has affected bauxite mining and transportation, with a decline in bauxite shipments and uncertainties in the复产 of a large mine, supporting ore prices. The alumina production is in a high - stable state, and the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing steadily. Domestic downstream demand is entering the peak season, and the inventory inflection point is basically determined. The overall idea is to go long on dips, and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [4]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea bauxite prices are stable at $75 per dry ton. Alumina operating capacity increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, and national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons to 44.409 million tons. The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is recovering [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or go long on AD and short on AL [5]. 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, inflation expectations, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [7][8] 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as frequent rainfall. Guinea bauxite prices are stable, and the bauxite shipping volume is decreasing. From mid - to late September, major mining enterprises and alumina plants will start negotiations on the fourth - quarter long - term contract prices [11]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina construction capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 97.55 million tons (an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating rate was 85.1%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,047.5 yuan per ton (a decrease of 53.5 yuan per ton week - on - week). The national alumina inventory was 3.68 million tons (an increase of 71,000 tons week - on - week). Some new production capacities are entering the stable production state, and some roasting furnaces will be under maintenance, but it will not affect the medium - term output [15]. 05. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and shipping volume, but no specific analysis is provided [17][18][19] 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.409 million tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity is increasing steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou Anshun and the commissioning of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin's replacement capacity basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [22]. 07. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on electrolytic aluminum processing fees, aluminum prices, power coal prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [26] 08. Inventory - The report presents historical data on the social inventory of aluminum rods and ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [28][29][30] 09. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3% week - on - week. Since September, downstream procurement sentiment has slightly improved, but industry operations are still restricted by factors such as insufficient raw material supply and policy uncertainties [33]. 10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum alloy prices, price differences, and import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [36][39][40] 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 0.4% to 62.1% week - on - week. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises rose by 1% to 54%, with different performances in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises remained stable at 68.6%, with differentiated product performance [46]. 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises rose by 0.4% to 65.2% week - on - week, supported by existing orders. The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises rose by 1% to 57.6%, with different production performances between large and small enterprises [50].

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,382 kilograms to 1,246,569 kilograms as of September 12 [1] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,777 CNY/kg, reached a high of 10,065 CNY/kg, and closed at 10,035 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.36% increase [1] - The increase in warehouse receipts was primarily driven by the Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, which contributed 6,227 kilograms [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - The IMF indicated that the U.S. economy is showing signs of pressure, with weakening domestic demand and slowing job growth [2] - High tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to inflation risks, with the IMF suggesting that the Federal Reserve should be cautious in its monetary policy decisions [2] - The IMF noted that while inflation is gradually approaching the Fed's 2% target, tariff policies are adding upward pressure on prices, potentially affecting household living costs [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The IMF believes there is still room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but any actions should be taken cautiously [3] - The Fed is advised to closely monitor economic data and adjust policies prudently to balance economic growth and price stability [3] - This "tightrope" policy approach presents challenges for the Fed and adds uncertainty to the future trajectory of the U.S. economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September is expected to show significant internal divisions among its members [1] Group 1: Dovish Members - Dovish members such as Waller, Bowman, Daly, and the likely confirmed nominee Milan may advocate for further rate cuts [1] Group 2: Hawkish Members - Hawkish members including Harmack, Bostic, Musalim, and Schmidt emphasize the risks associated with inflation [1] Group 3: Potential Outcomes - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in the September meeting, there may still be dissenting votes within the committee [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching a record high of $3578 per ounce, with a closing price of $3558.93, reflecting a 0.72% increase, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and weak employment data [1][3] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with job vacancies decreasing by 176,000 to 7.181 million, the lowest since September 2024, and the vacancy rate dropping to 4.3%, indicating a slowdown in labor demand [1][3] - The number of unemployed individuals has surpassed job vacancies for the first time since April 2021, with only 0.99 job openings per unemployed person, highlighting a significant shift in the labor market dynamics [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to adjust its monetary policy in response to the labor market's deterioration, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [3][4] Economic Policies - The current economic challenges are attributed to the Trump administration's import tariffs and immigration policies, which have increased business costs and tightened labor supply [3][4] - Federal Reserve officials are increasingly signaling the need for rate cuts, with various members expressing the potential for multiple cuts in the next three to six months, depending on economic data [4][5] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that while tariffs have led to price increases, businesses are hesitant to pass on these costs, complicating the balance between controlling inflation and maintaining strong employment [4][5] Market Sentiment - The rise in gold prices is seen as a reflection of global uncertainties, with investor concerns about the Fed's independence and dovish statements amplifying risk-averse sentiment [5] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is anticipated to be a key focus for traders, as it may provide further insights into the labor market's health and influence gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices recorded a significant bullish candle, closing near $3578.36, indicating potential for further upward movement, with traders eyeing the $3600 resistance level [7] - Short-term price action suggests a test of support around $3530, with potential for short-term buying opportunities if this level holds [7] Trading Strategies - Suggested long positions near $3530 with a stop loss at $3524 and targets around $3545/$3560 [8] - Suggested short positions between $3555-$3560 with a stop loss at $3565 and targets around $3530/$3500 [8]