Core Views - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points has led to internal divisions among its members, with some advocating for maintaining the current rate and others pushing for a more aggressive reduction [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first instance of "dual dissent" since 2019 [2]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued for maintaining the current rate, citing a balanced labor market and potential long-term negative impacts on inflation if the Fed's commitment to the 2% target is questioned [2]. Internal Divisions - Several regional Fed presidents expressed skepticism about the need for further rate cuts, emphasizing the ongoing inflation risks and the need for clear evidence of economic downturns before making such decisions [3][4]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that unless there is clear evidence of faster-than-expected inflation decline or a cooling labor market, the likelihood of another rate cut in December is low [3]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped significantly from over 95% to around 60%, reflecting uncertainty due to government shutdowns and missing economic data [6]. - Economists from Deutsche Bank, Montreal Bank, and Goldman Sachs still believe a rate cut will occur in December, while others argue that the current economic indicators do not support such a move [6][7]. Future Considerations - The upcoming public speeches from Fed officials will be crucial in setting the tone for the December meeting, as their views may influence the market's assessment of future rate cuts [5]. - Analysts suggest that the threshold for further rate cuts may be higher than previously anticipated, requiring more substantial evidence to justify such actions [7].

Market Overview - Gold experienced a significant drop but rebounded sharply, reaching a new high of $130 before adjusting below $4000 [1] - After a strong rally, gold surpassed the $4040 mark [4] - The market saw a rapid decline, dropping to $3990 for adjustment [5] - A quick flash drop occurred, indicating continued adjustments, particularly with resistance at $4030 [6] - The market continued to decline below $3990, with support seen at $3915 [7] - A rebound occurred at $3990, indicating potential for further upward movement [8] - The market is expected to face resistance at $4030 and $4075, with adjustments looking towards $4100 and $3900 [10] Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and end balance sheet reduction is expected to increase liquidity, benefiting gold [11] - The U.S.-China summit resulted in positive signals, including the suspension of a 10% tariff for one year, easing global trade tensions [11] - The upcoming U.S. PCE data is crucial as it reflects inflation levels and may influence future Fed rate decisions [12] - Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts may impact both the dollar and gold prices [13] Economic Context - Central banks in Japan and Europe are maintaining their current policies, while the Fed is cautious amid inflation risks [14] - Global central banks are beginning to slow down their easing measures, leading to heightened market volatility [15] - The market is entering a phase of high volatility, with rising prices contributing to increased instability [16] - Speculation about the potential for a bull market in 2025 raises questions about the sustainability of current trends [17]

Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold is currently trading around $3,981.64, with a latest price of $3,959.61 per ounce, reflecting a 0.79% increase, and has seen a high of $3,981.64 and a low of $3,914.92 during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears to be oscillating, indicating a potential for volatility in the near term [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve announced the end of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio reduction on December 1, aligning with market expectations, while the decision-making environment remains complex due to unique funding pressures [2] - Historical trends suggest that markets often rise following the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, but there are concerns that easing policies could reignite inflation risks, which previously prompted aggressive rate hikes [2] - There are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the future policy path, with some members advocating for a pause to assess employment risks, while others support a 50 basis point cut [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Challenges - The current decision-making process faces challenges due to government shutdowns leading to a lack of key economic data, forcing the Federal Reserve to rely on alternative indicators to assess the labor market [3] - The third-quarter GDP performance exceeded expectations, potentially reducing the immediate need for stimulus, yet the dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment create uncertainty in future policy directions [3] - The interplay of data scarcity and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve suggests that market volatility may increase in the short term as stakeholders await clearer policy signals [3] Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continue to experience downward pressure, remaining below the five-day moving average, with a critical support level at $3,900 [4] - The overall trend for gold remains weak, and if prices remain pressured between $3,980 and $4,000, further short positions may be considered, while monitoring the $3,900 support level for potential stabilization [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global risk assets experienced a halt in their upward momentum, with major stock indices in Asia and Europe declining, attributed to profit-taking after significant gains that led to historical highs [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Asian stock markets saw collective declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22%, Shenzhen Component down 0.44%, and the Hang Seng Index down 0.33% [3][4]. - European indices also opened lower, with the DAX30 down 0.21% and CAC40 down 0.1% as of 17:00 Beijing time [4]. - Cryptocurrency markets faced declines, with Bitcoin down 0.6% and Ethereum nearly 1%, resulting in over 110,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours [4]. Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced significant drops, with gold falling over 2% at one point, trading below $3900 per ounce, and silver down 1.97% to $45.89 per ounce [1][4]. - Analysts from Heraeus indicated that the adjustment in precious metal prices could last for several months, although they expect a potential continuation of the upward trend if investor interest remains strong [5][6]. Demand and Future Outlook - Despite recent price declines, global retail demand for gold remains robust, and gold ETF holdings have not shown significant declines, indicating sustained investor interest [6]. - Analysts predict that ongoing economic uncertainty will continue to support gold prices, with Metals Focus forecasting an average gold price of $4560 per ounce next year, reflecting a 33% increase from the current average [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley's commodity strategist anticipates that gold prices could exceed $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by persistent demand from investors and central banks [7].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with London gold falling over 1% to below $4100, and COMEX gold also declining by more than 1% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices followed the trend, with Lao Miao gold's 24K jewelry priced at 1211 yuan per gram, down 17 yuan from the previous day's price of 1228 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Canada, citing concerns over misleading advertisements related to tariffs [1] Group 2 - Brazilian President Lula reported constructive talks with U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs and sanctions, with both sides agreeing to hold immediate discussions on these issues [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 30 is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, especially after recent U.S. inflation data fell below expectations [1] - Despite the consensus on the Fed's rate cut, there are internal divisions regarding the future path of rate cuts, with officials warning about persistent inflation risks above the 2% target [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing to lower interest rates again this month due to a weakening job market overshadowing inflation concerns, but this balance may not last long [1] - Economic data is mixed, showing resilient growth and consumer spending, while hiring has slowed down, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [1] - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes the risks of delaying action, indicating a likely 25 basis point rate cut in October, with futures markets anticipating another cut in December [2][5] Group 2 - The internal debate within the Fed is intensifying, with some officials warning about persistent inflation and the potential for strong economic growth to complicate future rate cuts [2][3] - The balance of risks between employment and inflation will shape the Fed's policy discussions leading into 2026, with potential changes in leadership and voting members adding uncertainty [4] - The ultimate extent of rate cuts may be less than what the market is currently pricing in, as the economy shows signs of overheating [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Collins indicates that inflation risks are slightly lower than previously expected [1] Group 1 - The assessment of inflation risks has been adjusted, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for economic stability [1]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Global central bank leaders will discuss stock market bubbles and potential crash risks at the IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting, with IMF President Georgieva warning that current asset valuations are nearing levels seen during the internet bubble 25 years ago, indicating that a significant market correction could harm the global economy [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has narrowed the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, including current Fed governors and other prominent economic figures, with plans to further reduce the list before submitting it to President Trump [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The September meeting minutes reveal that Federal Reserve officials unanimously agree on the necessity of a rate cut due to recent weak employment data, although there are differing opinions on the future path of monetary policy [2] - Most officials believe further easing may be appropriate in the remaining months of the year, while some caution that financial conditions do not appear particularly restrictive, suggesting a need for a cautious approach [2] European Central Bank Stance - The European Central Bank's September meeting minutes indicate that current inflation levels align with medium-term targets, and there is no need for rate adjustments to intervene in market supply and demand [3] Other Central Bank Actions - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, with expectations of a further reduction [5] - The Bank of Thailand has maintained its key rate at 1.50%, while the Polish central bank unexpectedly lowered its rate to 4.50%, indicating potential future interventions in the foreign exchange market [6] Market Observations - Analysts suggest that the current pricing in the money market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates by over 100 basis points by the end of 2026, which may be overly aggressive given inflation risks [7] - Citigroup warns that a U.S. government shutdown could lead to lasting economic damage and obscure real risks, while the outlook for the euro against the dollar may improve once political turmoil in France subsides [7] Future Focus - Key events to watch include the IMF's Global Economic Outlook report and various speeches from central bank officials, which may provide further insights into monetary policy directions [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the nickel market's surplus pattern is hard to change, with nickel prices expected to adjust at a low level, and stainless - steel is expected to see price changes affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. For both, it is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for now [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 1.06% and an amplitude of 3.03%. As of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 122,180 yuan/ton. In terms of the outlook, the Fed has different views on interest rate cuts. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, and domestic nickel ore port inventories have increased rapidly. Newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly, and some smelters have cut production due to losses. The demand from stainless - steel plants and new - energy vehicles is increasing, but the surplus pattern in the nickel market remains unchanged. Technically, it will maintain a range - bound shock. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel fluctuated widely, with a weekly increase of 0.39% and an amplitude of 1.41%. As of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 12,780 yuan/ton. In terms of the outlook, the cost of raw materials has increased, and the support from raw material costs has strengthened. Although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, the production schedule has increased due to the arrival of the traditional consumption season. The downstream demand is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is in a de - stocking trend. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere is relatively strong, and it is facing pressure at the MA60 line. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - As of October 10, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 122,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week. The average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 955 yuan/nickel, the same as last week [13]. Basis Changes - As of October 10, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 123,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,670 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 895 yuan/ton [18]. Ratio Changes - As of October 10, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the SHFE was 9.54, an increase of 0.03 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12 from last week [25]. Net Long Position Changes - As of October 10, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 37,172 lots, a decrease of 5,542 lots compared to September 26, 2025. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 3,446 lots, a decrease of 3,279 lots compared to September 26, 2025 [31]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Electrolytic Nickel Production**: As of September 26, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 14.0937 million tons, an increase of 92,600 tons from last week. As of October 10, the production profit of electrowon nickel was 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 975 yuan/ton from last week. In August 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,695 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The import volume of refined nickel and alloys in August 2025 was 24,426.841 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.11%; from January to August, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 158,615.111 tons, a year - on - year increase of 180.61% [37][38][43]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 10, the SHFE nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, an increase of 5,619 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 237,378 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from last week [49][50]. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Trade**: In August 2025, the total output of stainless crude steel was 3.3156 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.26%. Among them, the output of 400 - series was 570,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%; the output of 300 - series was 1.7379 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.34%; the output of 200 - series was 1.0073 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.05%. In August 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 113,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,500 tons; the export volume was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,800 tons. From January to August, the cumulative net import volume was - 1.8351 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 256,800 tons [54]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of October 3, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan decreased by 32,000 tons from last week, and the inventory in Wuxi decreased by 43,400 tons from last week [59]. - **Production Profit**: As of October 10, the production profit of stainless steel was - 238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan/ton from last week [63]. - **Downstream Industries**: From January to August 2025, the new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%; the real estate development investment was 603.0919 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. In August 2025, the air - conditioner output was 16.8188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.27%; the household refrigerator output was 9.4532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.31%; the household washing - machine output was 10.1318 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the freezer output was 2.2423 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.76%. In August 2025, the new - energy vehicle production was 2.815 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32.3%; the sales volume was 2.857 million units, a year - on - year increase of 40.4%. The excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%; the large - and medium - sized tractor output was 26,682 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%; the small - sized tractor output was 9,000 units, the same as last year [67][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. It is expected that zinc prices will stabilize and adjust. Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. The demand side is affected by the real - estate sector, but there are some bright spots in the automobile and home - appliance sectors. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 2.04% and an amplitude of 2.59%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,270 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, there are differences in the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit space of smelters is large, and the production enthusiasm has increased. The output of refined zinc has reached a high level. However, the overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expansion of import losses and a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc, and the export window is expected to open. The traditional peak season effect is dull, and the real - estate sector is a drag, while the automobile and home - appliance sectors have some bright spots. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has continued to decline. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and attention should be paid to the competition around MA60 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the price of Shanghai Zinc futures rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton or 1.02% from September 25, 2025. As of October 9, 2025, the closing price of London Zinc was 3,014 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton or 0.08% from October 3, 2025 [8]. - **Net Position and Total Position**: As of October 10, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 65 lots, an increase of 8,155 lots from September 25, 2025. The total position of Shanghai Zinc was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 23,090 lots or 9.68% from September 25, 2025 [12]. - **Price Spreads**: As of October 10, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton from September 25, 2025 [16]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,340 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton or 1.73% from September 25, 2025. The spot discount was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 66.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.62 US dollars/ton from October 2, 2025 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons or 4.65% from October 3, 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase of 8,940 tons or 9.12% from last week. As of October 9, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 136,100 tons, an increase of 800 tons or 0.59% from September 25, 2025 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In July 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0762 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. In August 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 467,301.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51% and a year - on - year increase of 30.83% [31][32]. - **Supply - side - Global**: According to ILZSG data, in July 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75,300 tons or 6.7%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,100 tons or 0.87%. The global refined zinc surplus was 30,200 tons, compared with a deficit of 35,000 tons in the same period last year. According to WBMS, in June 2024, the global zinc market supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons [37][38]. - **Supply - side - Domestic**: In August 2025, the zinc output was 651,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc output was 4.836 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In August 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 25,656.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.59%, and the export volume was 310.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.57% [41][44]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to August 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of domestic major enterprises was 853,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.36%. In August 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 42,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.27%, and the export volume was 335,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.19% [47]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to August 2025, the new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.54%. The housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.94%. The funds in place for real - estate development enterprises were 6.431803 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 885.679 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5% [52][53]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: In August 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.28 from last month and an increase of 0.81 from the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year [58]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In August 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.4532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator output was 70.1891 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The air - conditioner output was 16.8188 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. From January to August, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 199.6462 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [61]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In August 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,856,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.44%. The production volume was 2,815,413 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% [65].