Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the commodity market rose 1.13% overall, with precious metals leading at 9.41%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. Short - term geopolitical disturbances are numerous, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2][6] - The US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials are negative about short - term rate cuts, and it's almost certain that the rate will remain unchanged in January. In China, December's import - export and social financing data are better than expected, indicating continuous and moderate economic improvement. [2] - The nomination of the next Fed Chair may be decided this week. [2] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Performance Summary - **Market Index** - Last week, the overall commodity market rose 1.13%. Precious metals led with a 9.41% increase, non - ferrous metals rose slightly by 0.89%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. [2][6] - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with non - ferrous and precious metal sectors having larger fluctuations. [2][6] - Only the precious metal and black sectors had net capital inflows, with 32.5 billion yuan flowing into the precious metal sector. [2][6] - **Top Gainers and Losers** - The top - rising varieties were up 20.03%, 14.95%, and 4.1%. The top - falling varieties were glass, rapeseed meal, and a certain variety, down 3.58%, 3.55%, and 3.39% respectively. [6] 3.2 Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals** - The Iran situation is tense, the US is pressuring Greenland and imposing additional tariffs on many European countries. Trump's challenges to the global order make the upward trend of precious metals unchanged. In the short term, they may fluctuate strongly. [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - Recent domestic and international data are positive, indicating economic recovery. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the macro - environment is neutral to positive. The SHFE inventory continues to accumulate, the LME is in a destocking state, and most spot premiums are weakening. Supply - side contraction risks still exist, supporting the sector's prices. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [2] - **Black Metals** - The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory - building pace has slowed. December's steel exports reached a new high. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream acceptance, blast furnace复产 has slowed, and hot metal production has decreased. The peak of iron ore's phased supply has passed, port inventories continue to increase, and the structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. The coal price may fluctuate weakly due to rising total inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [3] - **Energy** - The Iran situation is tense but under control, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. The market is becoming desensitized to geopolitical issues, and the geopolitical premium space is limited unless a conflict actually occurs. The latest EIA weekly data shows a significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. In the first quarter of 2026, global crude oil supply - demand shows significant inventory pressure, and oversupply is the main factor suppressing oil prices. Oil prices may be under pressure in the short term. [3] - **Chemicals** - For polyester varieties, the short - term upward driving force has weakened. For building material varieties, PVC's operating rate has slightly increased, some enterprises' exports have increased, but downstream operating rates have declined, and procurement enthusiasm is low. Attention should be paid to whether export tax rebates will drive export - rushing and create month - spread arbitrage opportunities. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the futures price center is expected to rise. Glass production capacity has been continuously reduced to 150100 tons. In the long term, glass supply will decrease, and supply - demand pressure will ease. As the downstream approaches the holiday, seasonal inventory accumulation may occur. [4] - **Agricultural Products** - Brazil's IBGE expects the 2026 soybean output to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The impact of La Nina is gradually fading, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned as the main trading logic. The US biomass fuel policy's certainty has increased, and the policy is expected to be announced in early March. In the short term, oilseeds and fats may fluctuate. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs** - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.85% - 2.90%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 263.587 billion yuan, with a 0.79% increase. The total trading volume was 754.651862 million shares, with a 2.19% increase. [37] - **Other Commodity ETFs** - The energy and chemical ETF had a - 0.96% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.86% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 3.78% return, and the silver fund had a 23.15% return. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 279.532 billion yuan, with a 1.85% increase, and the total trading volume was 2288.502384 million shares, with an 8.63% increase. [37][39]

新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：陈平 1月19日，在全球地缘政治紧张局势持续发酵的背景下，美国总统特朗普上周六（1月17日）推出的关税 策略引发了国际市场的剧烈波动。这一策略旨在通过经济压力迫使欧洲国家就格陵兰岛控制权进行谈 判，导致现货黄金价格周一开盘急剧上涨近100美元，再度刷新历史高点，截止07：35．最高触及4690 美元/盎司。同时，欧洲多国迅速做出回应，形成联合阵线予以反制。这种跨大西洋关系的裂痕不仅加 剧了贸易摩擦，还可能引发更广泛的国际冲突，再度吸引避险资金涌入黄金市场，给金价提供强劲的上 涨动能。 全球金市方面，上周五金价虽出现回调，但整体周线仍保持上涨态势。在连续数周大涨后，大宗商品市 场出现获利了结，中东紧张局势缓解也削弱了黄金的避险溢价。然而，随着伊朗抗议平息、特朗普采取 观望态度以及俄罗斯总统普京的斡旋，地缘风险有所缓和。他预计金价今年可能触及5000美元，但途中 将伴随大幅回调。 美国债市则显示收益率上升趋势，10年期国债收益率上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European stock market experienced a significant decline due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats regarding the acquisition of Greenland, leading to a swift reaction from traders and a drop in major stock indices [1][6][7]. Market Impact - The Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.64%, the French CAC 40 index decreased by 1.73%, the Italian FTSE MIB index dropped by 1.6%, and the UK FTSE 100 index declined by 0.37% [7]. - The cryptocurrency market also faced a downturn, with Bitcoin's price dropping by 3.6% to below $92,000, while Ethereum fell by 4.9% and Solana by 8.6% [1][6]. Geopolitical Reactions - Eight NATO member countries, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, were listed for potential tariffs, with European leaders expressing that the tariff threats are "unacceptable" and pledging support for Denmark [3][8]. - French President Macron emphasized the need for European unity in response to the threats, stating that any intimidation would not sway their stance [3][8]. - Norwegian Prime Minister Støre and Finnish President Stubb also voiced their support for Denmark, highlighting the importance of dialogue over pressure [3][9]. Upcoming Events - The World Economic Forum (WEF) is set to begin in Davos, Switzerland, with President Trump scheduled to speak, raising market anticipation regarding his policy positions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties on global financial markets, particularly following President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on European countries in response to the Greenland acquisition proposal [5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - European stock markets opened sharply lower, with major indices experiencing declines: the Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.64%, the French CAC 40 index dropped by 1.73%, the Italian FTSE MIB index decreased by 1.6%, and the UK FTSE 100 index declined by 0.37% [4]. - The cryptocurrency market also faced a downturn, with Bitcoin's price dropping by 3.6% to below $92,000, while Ethereum fell by 4.9% and Solana experienced an 8.6% decline [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Trump's statement on social media indicated that if a comprehensive agreement for the acquisition of Greenland was not reached, tariffs would be imposed on eight European NATO member countries starting at 10% on February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1 [4]. - The countries affected by the proposed tariffs include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland [7]. Group 3: European Response - European leaders have expressed strong opposition to the tariff threats, with French President Macron stating that the threats are "unacceptable" and emphasizing European unity in supporting Denmark [7][8]. - Other leaders, including Norway's Prime Minister and Finland's President, echoed similar sentiments, advocating for dialogue over pressure and emphasizing the importance of territorial integrity and sovereignty [8]. Group 4: Upcoming Events - The World Economic Forum (WEF) is set to commence in Davos, Switzerland, with President Trump scheduled to speak, raising market anticipation regarding potential policy clarifications [9].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have recently peaked, leading to profit-taking by investors, while easing geopolitical tensions have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][6] - Spot gold closed down 0.43% at $4595.03 per ounce, while spot silver fell 2.3% to $90.08 per ounce [1][6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.227%, and the 2-year yield at 3.592%, reflecting investor sentiment towards interest rates [1][6] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil closed up 0.12% at $59.23 per barrel, and Brent crude rose 0.52% to $64.21 per barrel, indicating a slight recovery in oil prices [1][6] - The U.S. crude oil market opened at $59.11 per barrel, reached a weekly high of $62.36, and closed at $59.35, suggesting potential support levels [3][8] - The analysis suggests a focus on potential rebounds in oil prices, with resistance levels identified between $59.4 and $61.2, and support levels between $58.5 and $57.3 [3][8] Group 3: Nasdaq Market Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25764.2, reached a high of $25880.55, and closed at $25524.68, indicating a potential for downward pressure [4][8] - The market showed signs of breaking out of its trading range, with resistance levels noted between $25593 and $25700, and support levels between $25160 and $25000 [4][8]

| < >> | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WP 08% | 4669.500 | | | +73.985 +1.61% | | 56% | IDC USD 13:22:26 | | | 6 | | | Fir | 4669.600 | | | | 04% | 米 | 4669.500 | | | | | 总量 | O | 现手 | C | | 52% | 结算价 | | 开盘 | 4595.860 | | | 最高 | 4690.880 | 最低 | 4595.860 | | 00% | 均价 | | 振幅 | 2.07% | | | 外摺 | 0 | 内容 | O | | 52% | 昨结 | 4595.515 | 卧트收 | 4595.515 | | | 涨停 | 0.000 | 跌停 | 0.000 | | 04% | 持合 | O | 增仓 | O | | 56% | 估结算 | | 其差(1) | 0.00 | | | 时间 | | 价格 | 现手 | 国内金价同步走高，截至1月19日9点58分，水贝黄金报价 ...

Group 1: Gold Retail and Wholesale Market Prices - Domestic gold retail market shows a stable high price level, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook maintaining prices at 1436 CNY per gram, while Chow Sang Sang slightly reduced its price to 1429 CNY per gram [1] - Shenzhen's wholesale price for gold is around 1186 CNY per gram, indicating a significant price gap between retail and wholesale markets, prompting consumers to consider cost control and channel selection [5] Group 2: Investment Gold Bar Price Differences and Trading Trends - Banks are preferred by investors for purchasing investment gold bars due to lower premiums, with prices from major banks like China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank ranging from 1045 CNY to 1049 CNY per gram, closely aligned with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's prices [6] - Brand gold stores have higher prices due to brand premiums and operational costs, with prices for brands like Lao Feng Xiang reaching 1289 CNY per gram [6] Group 3: "Gold Buying Fever" and Safe Deposit Box Shortages - The surge in physical gold investment demand, driven by a 70% price increase in 2025 and continued high prices in 2026, has led to a severe shortage of bank safe deposit boxes in major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen, with some banks experiencing full capacity and long waiting times for new applications [7] Group 4: Market Outlook and Price Predictions - Despite storage challenges, the market remains optimistic about gold prices, with predictions of a 15% to 30% increase in 2026, and some forecasts suggesting prices could reach 5000 USD per ounce [8] - Banks have adjusted their price expectations for copper, aluminum, silver, and platinum, indicating a broader market response to gold price trends [8] Group 5: Gold Recovery and Liquidation Market Trends - The domestic gold recovery price is approximately 1017 CNY per gram, showing a slight decline but still at historical highs, providing an excellent liquidation opportunity for early investors [10] - The recovery market is expected to expand as gold price volatility increases, becoming an important channel for adjusting private gold holdings [10]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The MSCI ACWI global index closed at 1,038.33, with a weekly change of 0.3% and a yearly change of 22.4% [6] - The MSCI Emerging Markets index increased by 2.2% over the week and has a yearly change of 39.2% [6] - The US market saw the Dow Jones decrease by 0.3% weekly, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively [6] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a four-month high, reflecting a decrease in market expectations for interest rate cuts [7] - The yield on US investment-grade bonds is at 4.87%, with a weekly change of 3 basis points [7] - Emerging market bonds showed a yield of 5.94%, with a 0 basis point change over the week [7] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Performance - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.3% over the week, while the Euro/USD decreased by 0.3% [8] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.5% to $59.44, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.2% to $64.13 [8] - COMEX gold prices rose by 2.1% to $4,595.40, reflecting a strong performance in the precious metals sector [8] Group 4: Japan Market Focus - The potential for early elections in Japan could benefit the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which may lead to economic growth [28][30] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability may pressure the yen and increase bond yields, with expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points by April [36] - Companies like Kioxia and Kajima Construction are expected to benefit from a strong government, particularly in the technology and nuclear sectors [39] Group 5: Malaysia Market Focus - Malaysia's economic growth is projected to slightly decline in 2026, with companies like 99 Speedmart and Gamuda being highlighted as safe investments in emerging markets [48][50]

贝森特在全国广播公司（NBC）《与媒体见面》节目中指出，在地缘政治棋局里，取得格陵兰岛的控 制权具有关键意义。就在前一天，美国总统特朗普誓言要对反对美国收购格陵兰岛的欧盟成员国加征关 税，其中就包括长期以来一直是美国最坚定盟友之一的丹麦。 美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）于上周日表示，欧洲的"软弱"使得美国掌控格陵兰岛对 全球稳定而言至关重要。与此同时，部分美国议员正对特朗普政府试图收购这块丹麦所属北极领土的举 动发出警告。 "我们是全球最强大的国家，"贝森特称，"欧洲展现的是软弱，而美国展现的是力量。" 随着美国与欧盟的紧张局势在上周日不断升级，贝森特表示，他相信欧洲领导人最终会"接受"美国掌控 格陵兰岛的提议。"我认为欧洲人会明白，这一安排对格陵兰岛最有利、对欧洲最有利，同时也对美国 最有利。" 这位美国财长称，他最近没有与特朗普讨论过是否仍在考虑动用紧急权力以武力夺取格陵兰岛。但肯塔 基州共和党籍参议员、美国参议院国土安全委员会主席兰德・保罗（Rand Paul）认为，采取这种做 法"荒诞至极"，因为格陵兰岛根本不存在所谓的紧急状态。 "财政部长声称这么做是为了防范紧急状态的发生 ...

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures are showing strong upward momentum driven by multiple favorable factors, including global supply tightness and ongoing production cuts by major oil-producing countries [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Market participants are focused on the impact of geopolitical risks, which are providing support for oil prices [1] - The gradual recovery of the global economy is leading to sustained growth in energy demand, further pushing up WTI crude oil futures prices [1] Group 2: Currency Influence - Fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate are affecting oil price trends; a weaker dollar typically enhances the attractiveness of WTI crude oil futures priced in dollars [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - WTI crude oil futures prices have broken through key resistance levels, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend in the short term [1] Group 4: Future Monitoring - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming macroeconomic data and changes in OPEC+ policies to assess the future trajectory of oil prices [1]