Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equities**: Medium - to - long - term upward trend for A - shares, short - term shock and accumulation of strength; rated as "Oscillating Bullish" [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Range - bound oscillation; rated as "Range - bound" [1] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices oscillate bullishly; rated as "Oscillating Bullish" [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Aluminum prices have an upward - moving center of gravity, copper prices move sideways, nickel prices continue to range - bound, and lithium prices trend bearishly; rated as "Oscillating", "Oscillating Bullish", "Range - bound", and "Oscillating Bearish" respectively [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Limited price fluctuation range; rated as "Oscillating" [6] - **Steel and Minerals**: Short - term shock operation for the black metal sector; rated as "Oscillating" [6] - **Coal and Coke**: Excess supply situation persists for coal and coke; rated as "Oscillating Bearish" [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is rated as "Bearish", and glass is rated as "Bearish"; the support for glass is gradually stronger than that for soda ash [8] - **Crude Oil**: High geopolitical premium keeps oil prices high; rated as "Oscillating Bullish" [8] - **Methanol**: Bullish trend; rated as "Rising" [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: L - PP spread continues to widen, with potential for futures to fall; rated as "Rising" [10] - **Cotton**: Bullish sentiment is recommended to be maintained; rated as "Oscillating Bullish" [10] - **Rubber**: Supply increases while demand decreases; rated as "Oscillating Bearish" [10] Core Views - **Equities**: Multiple financial measures were announced at the Lujiazui Forum to attract foreign investment, but there is no unexpected domestic policy boost. The market volume is gradually recovering, and the short - term shock is for mid - to - long - term upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases has been dashed, and the bond market oscillates within a range. Short - term bonds are supported by loose liquidity [1] - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks lead to high - level oscillation of international oil prices, and the long - term cycle is favorable for gold prices. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate bullishly [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For aluminum, supply constraints and low inventory support prices; for copper, supply is tight but demand is cautious; for nickel, supply and demand factors are intertwined, resulting in range - bound movement; for lithium, supply pressure is strong, leading to a bearish trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Supply and demand changes are small, and high inventory pressure keeps prices weak with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Minerals**: For steel products, demand is seasonally weak, but inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level; for iron ore, supply and demand are marginally becoming looser, and prices will move within a narrow range [6] - **Coal and Coke**: The supply of coal and coke remains in an excess situation, and prices trend bearishly [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash supply is temporarily reduced, but demand is weak, and inventory is high; glass demand is expected to be weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The support for glass is gradually stronger [8] - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors maintain a high geopolitical premium for oil prices, and short - term risks of supply interruption are a concern [8] - **Methanol**: Reduced arrivals and inventory, along with high production profits, make the short - term trend bullish [8][10] - **Polyolefins**: The increase in PP inventory and new production capacity supports the widening of the L - PP spread, and futures may fall if geopolitical factors fade [10] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight, without obvious short - term negative factors, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10] - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber increases while demand decreases, and the upside space for prices is limited [10] Summary by Category Equities - Wednesday, A - shares continued to oscillate narrowly, with the science and technology innovation sector performing strongly. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 1.22 trillion yuan. The electronics and communication sectors led the gains, while the finance and real estate sectors declined. The stock index futures rose slightly, and the basis of the far - month contracts of IC and IM decreased slightly. The market is currently in a stage of gradually recovering trading volume, and the short - term shock is for mid - to - long - term upward movement [1] Treasury Bonds - Yesterday, the bond futures oscillated throughout the day. The expectations of the central bank restarting bond purchases were dashed, and the market is waiting for today's meeting. The central bank slightly withdrew liquidity in the open market, but the intention to maintain liquidity is clear, and the short - term bonds are supported by loose liquidity [1] Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are complex, and international oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Debt, the US dollar, inflation and other long - term factors are favorable for gold prices. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate bullishly, and corresponding investment strategies are recommended [1][4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices oscillate, and the supply of bauxite is affected by events. The domestic production capacity of aluminum is restricted, and the current inventory is low, so the price center of gravity moves upward [4] - **Copper**: The Fed maintains interest rates, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on demand and inflation needs attention. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment and funds [4] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore increases seasonally, but the supply from Indonesia is slow. The supply of nickel iron is loose, and the demand for new energy is limited. The price is affected by both supply and demand factors and moves within a range [4] - **Lithium**: Although there are policies to support the terminal automobile market, the demand transmission is blocked, and the supply pressure on the lithium salt side increases, so the lithium price trends bearishly [6] Silicon Energy - Supply construction progress changes little, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the high inventory pressure keeps prices weak with limited price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold short - put options [6] Steel and Minerals - **Steel Products**: The spot price of steel oscillates narrowly, demand is seasonally weak, but inventory is decreasing. The price of steel products is expected to oscillate at a low level [6] - **Iron Ore**: The reduction of domestic blast furnace production in June is limited, and the supply and demand of iron ore are marginally becoming looser. The price will move within a narrow range [6] Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Affected by the safety production month, coal production is restricted, but inventory is accumulating. Steel and coke enterprises reduce production, and the long - term excess situation is difficult to change [8] - **Coke**: After continuous price cuts, coke enterprises' profitability is weak, and environmental inspections affect production. The supply and demand of coke are in a double - weak pattern, and the price continues to bottom out [8] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Production decreases temporarily, but demand is weak, and inventory is concentrated in upstream enterprises. It is recommended to hold short positions or conduct arbitrage operations [8] - **Glass**: Demand is expected to be weak, and supply is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold short positions or conduct arbitrage operations based on the expectation of glass factory cold repairs [8] Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors may lead to the escalation of the Middle East situation, affecting oil production and exports. US crude oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the short - term oil price is supported by geopolitical premiums [8] Methanol - Methanol arrivals and inventory have decreased, production profits are high, and the short - term trend is bullish [8][10] Polyolefins - The inventory of PE decreases slightly, while the inventory of PP increases due to increased production. The L - PP spread continues to widen, and futures may fall if geopolitical factors fade [10] Cotton - The cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bud stage, and the current supply - demand in China is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] Rubber - The impact of rising oil prices on synthetic rubber is weakening. The supply of natural rubber increases while demand decreases, and the price upside is limited [10]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil remains in a volatile and upward trend, and investors can hold low-cost call options. The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2]. - In the fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil market, the strength order is SOFU > LU, and the cracking spreads of both FU and LU are declining [2]. - The asphalt price follows the upward trend of oil prices, but the increase in production is limited, and the BU cracking spread is under pressure [3]. - The LPG market is in a volatile and upward trend, but there is supply pressure if geopolitical risks ease [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian session, international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC08 contract rose 4.7%. The Israel-Iran conflict continues, and the supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz remains. Last week, U.S. DOE crude oil inventories decreased by 11.473 million barrels due to increased net exports [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Oil prices have risen due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil product futures have followed suit but with a smaller increase than crude oil. The Israel-Iran conflict has a geopolitical premium for high-sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil from shipping bunkering and deep processing is weak, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, and the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel is insufficient [2]. Asphalt - The asphalt price has followed the upward trend of oil prices. The increase in production by local refineries lacks resilience, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, has increased significantly year-on-year from January to April. As of June 19, the weekly inventory data of refineries and social inventories has continued to decline [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still intensifying, and the risk of production and export from Iran's PQ remains high. The international market is operating strongly. Currently, the domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but attention should be paid to the pressure of falling margins due to rising import costs. The arrival volume in the middle of the month and the release of refinery gas are expected to increase. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure will bring a strong downward driving force [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently facing dual challenges from the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a complex price movement scenario [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June 18 meeting, aligning with market expectations [3] - Chairman Powell indicated a slower pace of future rate cuts, with a projected reduction of 50 basis points in 2024 and only 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027, which has weakened market expectations for rapid easing [3] - Powell's comments on inflation, particularly regarding the potential impact of Trump's tariff policies, suggest a projected inflation rate of 3% by year-end, which could support gold's anti-inflation properties but also strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices [3] Trump Tariff Policy - The tariff policy under the Trump administration is a focal point, with Powell warning that tariff costs will gradually be passed on to consumers, as evidenced by a nearly fourfold increase in customs revenue to $23 billion in May [4] - The anticipated transmission of tariffs to retail prices is expected to manifest in the coming months, particularly affecting categories like computers and audiovisual equipment [4] - While inflation expectations driven by tariffs may provide medium-term support for gold prices, the strong dollar and cautious Fed stance limit short-term upside potential [4] Geopolitical Risks - Recent military actions by Israel against Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about energy supply and supply chain stability [5] - The market is speculating on potential U.S. intervention, which has increased risk aversion, although the dollar has strengthened against other safe-haven currencies [5] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding Iran's internet control and conflict escalation, continues to provide potential support for gold prices [5] Economic Data Weakness - Recent economic data indicates weakness, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 5,000 to 245,000, but the four-week average reaching its highest level since August 2023, suggesting a weakening labor market [7] - Housing data shows a decline in building permits to a two-year low and housing starts at a five-year low, reflecting the impact of high borrowing costs and rising material prices [7] - Analysts suggest that trends in unemployment claims may signal economic contraction, which could prompt the Fed to adjust monetary policy, potentially providing upward momentum for gold prices [7] Other Precious Metals - In contrast to gold's performance, silver fell by 1.5% to $36.70 per ounce, while platinum rose by 4.3%, reaching its highest level since February 2021 [8] - The movements in silver and platinum are primarily driven by speculative funds, indicating active market sentiment in the precious metals sector, while gold remains more influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors [8] Future Outlook - The gold market is currently in a complex environment with intertwining bullish and bearish factors [9] - Short-term pressures from the Fed's cautious policy and tariff-induced inflation are countered by potential support from geopolitical risks and signs of economic slowdown [9] - Gold prices are expected to oscillate between $3,300 and $3,400 in the short term, awaiting clear catalysts, while medium-term opportunities may arise if inflation continues to rise and the Fed is forced to accelerate rate cuts [9]

近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 交易看起来确实简单，表面上，它不需要你风吹雨淋、低三下四的应酬，不用溜须拍马，不用拼酒伤 胃，不用忍气吞声，只需要在键盘上，敲动几个按钮"买"、"卖"，一笔生意马上就达成，钱迅速到账， 还不欠账，利润到手，多轻松。可是，等到交易做了一段时间，渐渐发现：市场老跟自己过不去，买了 就跌，卖了就涨，自己成了反向指标，怎么做都亏，怎么努力，怎么拼搏，尝试了各种方法，仍然无法 摆脱亏损的泥潭，发现交易如此之艰难。而这时候，你可能只是缺少一位负责任的老师、一个专业分析 团队为你的投资之路保驾护航，指明方向！下面请看作者金晟富【文末+本人，每日实时分享现价单及 操作策略】为各位投资朋友带来的今日财富机会！ 周四（6月19日）欧市早盘，现货黄金震荡下跌，目前交投于3365.10美元/盎司附近。美元在避险需求 的推动下强势反弹，中东地区的紧张局势与美联储主席鲍威尔的通胀风险警告成为市场焦点。地缘政治 的阴云笼罩全球，投资者情绪谨慎，而美元则在这一动荡时刻重拾避险资产的王者地位。中东地区的地 缘政治紧张局势在近期急剧升温，成为推高美元的重要驱动力。以色列与伊朗的冲突已持 ...

地缘局势和经贸谈判关键窗口期，联储再度短期观望 ——2025 年 6 月份美联储议息会议点评 国投期货研究院 朱赫 期货投资咨询号 Z0015192 靳顺柔子 期货投资咨询号 Z0014424 事件：货币政策方面，美联储如期按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25% 至 4.50%，符合会议前的市场预期。总的来看，尽管声明上美联储指出了近期关税的"不 确定性"，且"滞胀"的风险有所降低，但在点阵图上又传递了关于今年降息门槛更高 的信号，因此两方面因素共同作用下仍然是一个中性的信号，和此前美联储的观望状态 变化不大。美股冲高回落整体呈现震荡格局，美债价格亦冲高回落，中概股收跌，原油 和黄金主要还是根据伊以局势的发展总体呈现小幅震荡回调。 点评： 一、会前关注点：观望立场开始松动？ 在 5 月份的议息会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间保持在 4.25%至 4.5%，符合市场预期。会议声明偏中性，美联储在此次决议中表示出观望态度，警示了 关税带来的潜在的滞胀风险，并再次明确了"不确定性增加"，同时重申不急于采取先 发制人的决策。目前 Fed Watch 数据显示 6 月议息会议大概率维持利率不变。 ...

尽管多数官员仍预期2025年将降息两次或更多，但分歧加剧反映出在经济信号混杂的背景下，美联储维 持审慎立场。 鲍威尔记者会：数据导向，关税风险引关注 在会后记者会上，鲍威尔重申点阵图并非承诺，仅是"较弱的信号"，未来政策路径将完全依据经济数据 调整。 鲍威尔特别指出当前通胀面临上行风险，强调两大担忧： 美联储在周三如市场预期般维持利率不变。然而，政策制定者仍暗示2025年可能降息，不过美联储主席 鲍威尔提醒市场不要对这一预期过于乐观，指出关税与通胀相关的不确定性依然存在。 经济预测摘要 由于按兵不动已被市场充分定价，焦点转向了6月的《经济预测摘要》（SEP）。最新的点阵图显示， 美联储仍预计在2025年将进行两次各25个基点的降息。然而，内部观点依然分歧明显——部分官员甚至 预计明年不会降息，凸显了路径的不确定性。 6月点阵图| 来源：美联储 美国股市周三小幅收低，反映出投资者对美联储谨慎立场的复杂解读。尽管维持利率不变在预期之内， 但政策语气显示出更多耐心与不确定性，令股市略有承压。 与此同时，美元获得一定支撑，投资者解读为：即便未来可能降息，美联储在通胀与经济放缓之下可能 将维持"更久的高利率"。 ·与关 ...

中东变局下油价、金价怎么看？20250618 摘要 地缘政治风险短期内提振油价，但长期影响有限。若伊朗封锁霍尔木兹 海峡，可能导致全球原油运输受阻，油价或飙升至 100 美元以上，但中 美干预的可能性限制了长期封锁的风险，预计 2025 年第三季度油价将 在 70-85 美元区间波动。 宏观经济环境对黄金市场产生双重影响。美国债务风险和财政扩张可能 导致美元走弱，利好金价；但稳定币作为价值储存手段的兴起，可能削 弱黄金需求。投资者需密切关注宏观经济政策和数字货币发展。 黄金市场长期看涨，预计价格可达 3,700 美元。黄金经历超长周期回调 后通常会翻倍，目前金价虽已上涨至 3,300 美元以上，但距离翻倍目标 仍有空间。美元信心减弱和地缘政治因素是支撑金价上涨的关键因素。 美元走弱是黄金牛市的潜在驱动力。美联储加息策略可能因美国债务上 限而难以为继，未来三五年内黄金牛市或将持续。人民币可能成为更强 势货币，但中美博弈结果将决定未来世界最强势货币，进而影响黄金周 期。 Q&A 在当前中东局势动荡的背景下，原油价格的前景如何？ 当前中东局势对原油价格产生了显著影响。自 2025 年 6 月 13 日以来，以色 列 ...

19日周四，欧洲斯托克600指数下跌0.6%，正走向连续第三个交易日的下跌。亚洲股市基准指数跌幅超过1%，美股期货同样承压下行，美元兑主 要货币走强。由于六月节假期，美国股市和国债市场休市。现货黄金日内跌超0.5%，美、布两油日内涨幅达0.5%。 这一消息让本已因美联储下调今年增长预期，并上调通胀预测而紧张的市场雪上加霜，关税驱动的不确定性正在让央行的宽松政策变得复杂化。 市场情绪急转直下的导火索是以伊冲突持续僵持，据央视新闻周四报道，三位知情人士称，美国总统特朗普在6月17日已向高级助手表示批准了对 伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，希望通过威胁手段迫使伊朗放弃核计划。 地缘政治阴云笼罩全球股市 央视援引美官员等消息称，美国"福特"号航母打击群预计下周部署至欧洲战区，很可能将驶入靠近以色列的东地中海海域。伊朗全国出现大面积 断网。 "我们目前保持谨慎，专注于那些与利率相关性较低、与美国总统行动关联度较小的资产类别，"野村证券自主投资组合管理主管Gareth Nicholson 表示: "但这样的资产并不多见。在这种环境下，保持更加谨慎是明智的。" 新加坡海峡投资首席执行官Manish Bhargava表示 ...

世界500强投资企业 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0013700 2025/6/19 | | | --- | --- | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | 伦敦金现 伦敦银现 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 AU2508 AG2508 AU (T+D) AG (T+D) 日期 内外盘金 | | | (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (美元/盎司) (元/克) (元/千克) (元/克) (元/千克) 银15点价 | | | 2025/6/18 格厨房 3381. 90 37.23 3400. 40 37. 32 785. 08 8864. 00 782. 02 9004. 00 | | | (本表数 2025/6/17 3384. 97 36. 45 3403. 10 36. 54 785. 08 8864. 00 781. 69 8833.00 | 据来源: | | wind) 涨跌幅 -0. 1% 2.1% -0. 1% 2.1% 0. 0% 0. 0% 0.0 ...