Group 1 - The core challenges facing the economy include the restructuring of global trade, deep adjustments in the real estate market, and long-term pressure from insufficient domestic demand [1] - 68% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate in Q1 2025 will be between 5.0% and 5.2%, while 24% expect it to be between 4.7% and 4.9% [3][4] - The stability of wage and property income is crucial for residents' spending willingness, with income being the primary influencing factor for consumption at 81% [1][6] Group 2 - Economists emphasize the need for macroeconomic policies to balance "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks," with a stronger focus on growth while also addressing risk prevention [1][14] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to create significant challenges for labor-intensive industries and consumer electronics, necessitating policy adjustments [12][13] - The survey indicates that 72% of economists believe China may initiate cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in April to counteract the effects of U.S. tariffs [13] Group 3 - The current economic environment necessitates a focus on stabilizing employment, with 48% of economists identifying stimulating market vitality as a key strategy [10] - The need for increased fiscal support in areas such as consumption, livelihood, and broad infrastructure is highlighted as essential for achieving the 5% growth target [14] - The anticipated expansionary fiscal policy for 2025 is projected to reach 8 trillion yuan, reflecting the need to address external influences and employment pressures [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong expectation for domestic demand, suggesting that the food and beverage sector is showing resilience in its fundamentals [1][2]. - The white liquor segment is expected to benefit from improved performance and valuation recovery, drawing parallels to the 2018 US-China trade tensions, where the sector demonstrated strong anti-drawdown characteristics [2]. - The beverage sector, particularly Yanjing Beer, is projected to continue its high growth momentum, with significant increases in revenue and profit expected in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The white liquor sector is anticipated to achieve both performance and valuation recovery due to strong domestic demand and improved supply dynamics. Key players like Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to report solid earnings growth, with Moutai's 2024 total revenue and net profit projected to increase by 15.7% and 15.4% respectively [2]. - Gujing Gongjiu's 2024 revenue and net profit are expected to grow by 16.4% and 20.2% respectively, indicating a robust outlook for leading brands in the sector [2]. Beer and Beverage - Yanjing Beer reported a total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with net profit soaring by 63.74% to 1.056 billion yuan [3]. - The U8 product line from Yanjing Beer is expected to maintain a growth rate exceeding 30% in 2025, driven by internal reforms and product upgrades [3]. - The beverage sector is also seeing significant developments, with the coconut water brand IF planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong market positioning and growth potential [3][7]. Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes the resilience of consumer goods, with companies like Three Squirrels and H&H International showing promising growth trajectories. H&H's revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to increase by 10.4%, driven by strong performance in its infant formula segment [7]. - Three Squirrels is actively participating in channel transformation through strategic acquisitions, which may enhance its market presence and growth potential [7].

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the U.S. economy and the global order, highlighting the contradiction between seeking trade surplus and maintaining the dollar's dominance [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to have a record trade deficit of $1.21 trillion, with imports totaling $3.3 trillion and exports at $2.1 trillion, indicating a significant imbalance in trade [1] - The article emphasizes that the trade deficit has historically supported the dollar's status, and reducing it could weaken the dollar, suggesting that Trump's approach may not be sustainable [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in U.S. financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and rising bond yields, reflect the chaos and uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policies [2] - The article argues that the real issue for the U.S. is not trade imbalance but the failure to address the needs of the lower-income population, which has led to a lack of support compared to Europe [2] - In contrast to East Asian countries, which face structural issues of high savings and low consumption, China has the potential to address demand constraints due to its large population and economic scale [3] Group 3 - The article suggests that China should focus on creating a robust domestic demand to support its manufacturing sector, addressing issues such as "involution" in competition and protecting intellectual property rights [3] - It highlights the importance of increasing fiscal support for households and enhancing income through subsidies in education, healthcare, and pensions to stimulate consumption [3] - Additionally, China is diversifying its export markets and increasing overseas investments to promote exports, indicating its unique role in the global production system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's economy remains resilient and robust despite external pressures, particularly highlighting the growth and potential of the modern service industry as a key driver of economic development [1][10]. Group 1: Economic Resilience and Growth - The unilateral tariffs imposed by the U.S. violate international trade rules and disrupt the global economy, yet China's economic foundation is stable and resilient [1]. - The service sector's contribution to GDP has been increasing, showcasing its role as a primary engine for economic growth [1][7]. - In 2024, China's service industry added value reached 76.56 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, contributing 56.2% to national economic growth [7]. Group 2: Modern Logistics and Technological Advancements - China is the largest logistics market globally, with over 10,000 A-level logistics companies and more than 2,700 large-scale logistics parks [5]. - The integration of drones and smart logistics systems has significantly improved delivery efficiency, achieving a fourfold increase compared to traditional ground transportation [3]. - The logistics industry is undergoing rapid smart transformation, with advancements in low-altitude transportation and cold chain logistics reflecting the sector's growth potential [6][12]. Group 3: Consumer Market and Domestic Demand - With a population of 1.4 billion, China has the world's largest consumer market, which is increasingly being stimulated by high-quality development initiatives [9]. - The silver economy, driven by the aging population, is projected to grow from 7 trillion yuan to 30 trillion yuan by 2035, indicating a significant market opportunity [26]. - The cultural tourism sector is thriving, with innovative consumption scenarios and integration of various industries contributing to economic vitality [19][21]. Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is actively promoting policies to boost consumption and investment, with a focus on expanding domestic demand [22]. - The development of modern service industries is supported by national strategies aimed at enhancing market connectivity and technological integration [15][17]. - The continuous evolution of the service sector, including e-commerce and financial technology, is expected to drive substantial economic growth and job creation [17][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong rebound of domestic brands in sectors such as consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and technology, driven by the logic of domestic brand substitution and independent performance growth, leading to increased market share and revenue opportunities for these brands [2][3]. Group 1: Domestic Brand Substitution Logic - Public funds have heavily invested in domestic brands, particularly in the cosmetics sector, benefiting from the domestic brand substitution logic, as foreign competitors like Estée Lauder face challenges in the Chinese market [3]. - The stock of Estée Lauder has seen a cumulative decline of over 25% in the last four trading days, while domestic brands like Mao Geping and Shangmei have shown strong resilience, with increases of 6.30% and 3.89% respectively [3]. - In the infant formula sector, domestic brand China Feihe has surged over 10% in the Hong Kong market, supported by significant investments from Ping An Fund and GF Fund [3]. Group 2: Independent Performance Growth - The article emphasizes the importance of independent performance, highlighting that many domestic brands achieve stable growth by relying on the vast domestic market, with companies like Bosideng generating approximately 94% of their revenue from China [6]. - The motorcycle sector has seen a surge in interest for domestic brand Chunfeng Power, with 70 public funds including it in their top ten holdings, reflecting confidence in the brand's growth potential [7]. - The article notes that many companies, including internet and consumer goods firms, have achieved consistent performance growth without international operations, indicating a strong domestic market drive [7]. Group 3: Market Opportunities and External Factors - The article points out that the strong manufacturing capabilities and demand in the domestic market provide public funds with opportunities to capitalize on undervalued stocks that have been unfairly punished by market sentiment [8]. - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to remain resilient against external factors, with domestic innovative drug companies benefiting from supportive policies and technological advancements [9][10]. - The article mentions that the introduction of zero tariffs on certain cancer and rare disease drugs in early 2024 may further mitigate external impacts on the pharmaceutical sector [10].

习近平总书记深刻指出，"构建新发展格局的关键在于经济循环的畅通无阻""要牢牢把握扩大内需 这个战略基点，努力探索形成新发展格局的有效路径"。 自2020年4月在中央财经委员会会议上提出新发展格局，5年来，习近平总书记多次就牢牢把握扩大 内需这个战略基点作出阐释和部署，指引中国经济加快构建新发展格局，把握未来发展主动权。 （一）厚植根基 当今世界，最稀缺的资源是市场。 我国有14亿多人口，有全球最完整的产业体系，人均国内生产总值突破1万美元，是全球最大最有 潜力的消费市场。 加快培育完整内需体系，是畅通国民经济循环、增强国内大循环主体地位的重要基础。 习近平总书记强调："市场资源是我国的巨大优势，必须充分利用和发挥这个优势，不断巩固和增 强这个优势，形成构建新发展格局的雄厚支撑。" 大国经济的特征是内需为主导、内部可循环。我国经济由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，机遇 和挑战都有新的发展变化。 总书记高瞻远瞩、审时度势，深刻指出"扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之 计，而是战略之举""构建新发展格局，首先要把国内大循环搞好，这是治本之策"。 培育完整内需体系，是适应新发展阶段的必然选择，也是促进 ...

4月8日，国家税务总局发布《关于推广境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"服务措施的公告》，明确 离境退税"即买即退"服务措施在全国推广。 2025.04. 11 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 本文字数：1114，阅读时长大约2分钟 导读 ： 提振消费组合拳。 《公告》指出，境外旅客在"即买即退"商店购买退税物品时，签订协议书并办理信用卡预授权后，即 可在该商店现场申领与退税款等额的人民币款项，在离境时经海关验核通过、按照协议书约定在承诺 期限内于指定口岸离境且符合离境退税政策规定的，退税代理机构为其解除信用卡预授权，办结离境 退税业务。 近日，在互动平台上，包括王府井、中国中免在内的多家零售百货、免税店以及部分食品饮料白酒等 上市公司被投资者问及"即买即退"政策影响。 其中，广百股份回应，公司旗下广百百货北京路店、天河中怡店、广州友谊环东店、正佳店、时代 店、国金店为首批离境退税"即买即退"商店，为入境消费客户带来更舒适、便捷的购物体验。 另外，对于即将召开的广交会，广百股份亦称，为更好的接待外宾及提升服务质量，公司提供多语种 服务，安排了专属客服导购，更有城市资讯导览、外宾特惠尊享、广式礼遇相赠等贴心服务。 大东方 ...

Market Overview - The market showed resilience this week, with the three major indices closing in the green despite a decline in individual stock performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.73% [1][9][12] - The market was supported by the "national team" stabilizing actions and expectations for domestic demand policies, leading to a recovery after a period of decline [2][12] Economic Analysis - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has prompted proactive measures from China, with the national team maintaining market stability. This is expected to impact the US economy negatively and increase inflationary pressures [2][9] - March CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with a narrowing drop compared to February. The core CPI, however, rose by 0.5%, indicating a mild improvement in consumer demand [10][12] - The PPI for March decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices, which also affected domestic prices [10][12] Policy Outlook - The liquidity in April is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. The central bank's recent operations indicate a supportive stance towards liquidity [11][12] - The government is likely to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment [10][11][12] Sector Recommendations - Investment focus is recommended on sectors such as finance, food and beverage, public utilities, retail, and technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) [3][12] Stock Performance Tracking - The report includes a tracking of potential stocks for April, with notable mentions such as China Rare Earth (up 7.99% over the period) and Haidilao (up 3.60%) [20][21]

A： 4月2日，特朗普宣布对中国等贸易逆差国征收不同的对等关税，对其他贸易伙伴征收10%全面关 税。之后中国强硬加对等关税反制，全球风险资产大幅下跌。4月9日特朗普宣布除对中国维持125% 关税外，其余贸易伙伴的对等关税延期90天执行，仅维持10%全面关税，全球风险资产开始修复跌 幅。 特朗普的反复无常体现了其政策讹诈的本质。 特朗普执政的基本盘在于增加美国财政收入和推动制造 业回流美国，但从所谓"对等关税"的计算中不难看出其团队不仅不尊重基本的经济和国际贸易规律， 而且显然操之过急，企图实现美国经济结构转型的"大跃进"。后续美股和美债市场的暴跌证明了特朗 普政策的不可持续性，重重压力之下特朗普选择暂缓关税，短短几天之内重大国际政策大幅反转，特 朗普通过关税工具进行政策讹诈的意图非常明确。虽然目前中美之间仍然维持125%的关税，但特朗普 后退一步反而打开了中美贸易谈判的空间。 国际形势快速变化的背景下，关键是做好中国自己的事。 在实现经济新旧动能的转换方面中国已经做 了多年的不懈努力和艰难取舍（如主动刺破房地产泡沫），并已取得显著的喜人成果（如培育和发展 新质生产力），使经济中的结构性矛盾大大缓解。鉴于此，在 ...

章俊：供给侧结构性改革一方面能够通过技术创新和产业升级，满足居民日益多样化、高端化的需求。 另一方面又可以创造新需求，例如智能家居、新能源汽车、智能穿戴设备等新兴领域。 章俊表示，在年内未有增长政策加码的情景下，预计2025年消费对GDP增长的贡献率有望维持增长，但 增速或将边际递减。而当前美国"对等关税"政策冲击大幅提升了年内消费政策加码的必要性，且后续政 策加码仍需重视对居民增收减负的支持力度。一方面要加大力度促进居民增收，提高一次分配收入占 比、完善收入分配制度、完善就业市场等；另一方面要切实减轻居民"三座大山"的压力，如降低公积金 利率，减轻居民购房负担，释放更多可支配收入用于消费。通过以上政策组合，既能短期内刺激消费， 又能长期优化收入分配和供给结构，推动消费升级与经济增长的良性循环。 《21世纪》：《提振消费专项行动方案》首次将"城乡居民增收促进行动"置于首位，强调"增收减 负"与"高质量供给"双轮驱动。你认为这一政策设计体现了当前宏观经济调控的哪些核心逻辑？ 结合当前我国人口老龄化压力加大、服务业和服务消费水平与发达国家仍有一定差距的背景，银发经 济、国货品牌、冰雪经济等或成为突破口，银发消费能 ...