21世纪经济报道记者 陈思琦 深圳报道 具体来看，深圳规上工业总产值、工业增加值从2022年开始保持全国城市"双第一"；"十四五"期间，深 圳固定资产投资总额可达4.5万亿元、约为"十三五"的1.5倍；社会消费品零售总额从2020年的8664亿元 增加到2024年的1.06万亿元；外贸进出口总额从2020年的3.05万亿元增加到2024年的4.5万亿元，跃居全 国城市首位；来源于深圳辖区的一般公共预算收入预计连续五年保持在万亿元以上。 从经济结构看，"十四五"前四年，深圳战略性新兴产业增加值年均增长10%以上、占GDP比重提高到 42.3%。 具体来看，深圳建成投产11个百亿级大型工业项目，先进制造业和高技术制造业增加值占规上工业比重 分别达68.2%、58.2%；集成电路、工业机器人、智能手机等39种工业产品产量占全国比重超10%；现代 服务业增加值占服务业比重提高至76.5%；国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业数量达1333家、跃居全国城市 首位；境内外上市企业592家、瞪羚企业215家、独角兽企业42家，均位居全国前列。 "十四五"期间，深圳科技创新亦取得重大突破，创造多个"首位"。总体来看，深圳全社会研发投 ...

Economic Growth - Shenzhen's GDP increased from 2.78 trillion yuan in 2020 to 3.68 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, leading among first-tier cities [1][2] - Fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4.5 trillion yuan, approximately 1.5 times that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose from 866.4 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.06 trillion yuan in 2024 [2] - Foreign trade import and export volume increased from 3.05 trillion yuan in 2020 to 4.5 trillion yuan in 2024, ranking first among cities in the country [2] Industrial and Technological Development - Shenzhen maintained the top position in national cities for industrial output and added value since 2022 [2] - The added value of strategic emerging industries grew by over 10% annually, accounting for 42.3% of GDP [2] - R&D investment increased from 151.08 billion yuan in 2020 to 245.31 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 12.9% [3] - Shenzhen ranked first in the number of national specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, totaling 1,333 [3] Infrastructure and Urban Quality - Significant improvements in urban quality, particularly in transportation, with major projects like the Ganshen High-speed Railway and the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Link [5] - The airport passenger throughput is expected to exceed 65 million this year, and metro operation mileage surpassed 600 kilometers [5] - Social welfare expenditures reached 1.6 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of fiscal spending [5] Future Development Strategies - Shenzhen aims to expand domestic demand comprehensively and enhance effective investment [7] - The city plans to cultivate new productive forces and become a hub for innovation and advanced manufacturing [8] - Emphasis on deepening reform and opening up, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [8] - Focus on high-quality urban development and improving public services to ensure equitable benefits for citizens [8]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,780.00 | +22.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,592.00 | +46.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 573,238.00 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a milestone in 2025, with a total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4,000 points, marking a significant recovery and growth trajectory for 2026 [2] Market Performance and Drivers - The A-share market experienced a notable rally in the past year, driven by a policy shift and improved liquidity, with the rally beginning from the "924" policy change in 2024 [4][7] - The entry of state-owned funds at market lows significantly boosted investor confidence, leading to a noticeable inflow of incremental funds into the market [4][7] Market Structure and Future Outlook - In 2026, there is a cautious optimism regarding the overall market, with a potential shift in market style and a focus on sectors related to domestic demand, real estate, and cyclical industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [6][10] - The cyclical and value-related stocks, which lagged in 2025, may see a balanced rise in 2026, contingent on macroeconomic recovery and industry fundamentals [5][9] Key Investment Themes - The real estate sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, as it is expected to stabilize and influence consumer behavior significantly [13] - Domestic consumption stocks, which underperformed in 2025, are also seen as having potential for recovery in 2026, despite current fundamental challenges [14] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create opportunities in cyclical industries, with signs of improvement already emerging in Q4 of 2025 [15][18] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The valuation methods for cyclical and technology growth assets differ significantly, with traditional assets relying more on current value assessments, while tech assets are evaluated based on future potential [19][20] - Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective and understand the underlying logic of their investments, emphasizing the importance of value investing [26]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to reach a milestone with a total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4,000 points by 2025, marking a significant development in the market [2] - The market's performance in 2025 was driven by a policy shift in 2024 and improved liquidity, with significant confidence injected by early state-owned enterprises entering the market [4][6] - The structural characteristics of the market in 2025 showed that technology and growth stocks performed well, while cyclical and value stocks lagged behind [7][8] Group 2 - For 2026, the market is expected to be cautiously optimistic, with a potential rebalancing of market styles, particularly for cyclical and value-related assets that have underperformed [5][8] - The real estate sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, as it is in a process of bottoming out and may influence consumer behavior and wealth effects [12][13] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to impact industry profitability positively, although the extent of this effect may vary across different sectors [16][17] Group 3 - The consumer sector, particularly domestic consumption stocks, is seen as an area with potential opportunities in 2026, despite having underperformed in previous years [13][14] - The overall economic indicators, including price levels and macroeconomic data, are crucial for assessing investment opportunities and market trends [9][10] - The technology sector is undergoing a "purification" process, where only companies with viable business models will succeed in the long term [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Tianyima (301178.SZ) is leveraging its self-developed digital technology platform to actively support the implementation of the national "expand domestic demand" strategy in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation Initiatives - In May 2024, Tianyima was selected as one of the first digital traction units and is the only industry chain traction enterprise in the textile and apparel sector, fully advancing digital transformation efforts [1] - The company has provided in-depth digital solutions for multiple textile, apparel, and fashion trade enterprises, focusing on intelligent production systems that enable real-time monitoring of all processes and flexible production scheduling [1] - Additionally, Tianyima offers smart warehousing and supply chain management platforms to accurately control production progress, assisting enterprises in achieving comprehensive digital transformation across the entire supply chain [1] Group 2: Future Focus and Industry Impact - Recently, the company was successfully included in the second batch of digital traction units, with a focus on the digital transformation of the health and modern food industries, enhancing operational efficiency and aligning closely with market demands [1] - Tianyima aims to strengthen the digital capabilities of products in circulation and consumption, effectively responding to the "expand domestic demand" policy orientation [1] - The company plans to continue deepening its digital empowerment in the consumer goods manufacturing and distribution sectors, promoting the "integration of digital and real" in more traditional industries, contributing to the establishment of a high-quality domestic demand system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "National Subsidy" policy on consumer behavior and the economy, highlighting a significant increase in consumer spending on home appliances and digital products due to enhanced subsidies [2][5]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - In the first 11 months of the year, over 128 million home appliances were replaced under the "National Subsidy" program, with digital products receiving subsidies for over 9.015 million items [2]. - Consumers are taking advantage of the subsidies, as evidenced by a Beijing resident who purchased 10 appliances for 41,000 yuan, significantly more than the original budget of 20,000 yuan [2]. - Social media feedback indicates that consumers are enjoying the benefits of these subsidies, feeling a sense of improved quality of life [3]. Group 2: Policy Effectiveness - The "National Subsidy" program has increased subsidy amounts by 50% compared to previous years, with some categories seeing subsidy limits doubled [2]. - The policy is designed to activate current consumer demand rather than deplete future resources, effectively addressing the timing of product replacements [5]. - The subsidy percentage is strategically set between 15% and 20% to stimulate interest without causing dependency or excessive consumption [5]. Group 3: Economic and Industrial Impact - The subsidies create a beneficial cycle by linking consumer benefits with industrial upgrades, such as promoting digital transformation in the home appliance sector and supporting the green transition in the automotive industry [6]. - The policy aims to enhance both consumer spending and industrial growth, aligning with the central economic work meeting's focus on improving livelihoods and stimulating consumption [7].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on December 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% to 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.17% to 3107.06 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.66 trillion, with nearly 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance Banking Sector - Bank stocks experienced a broad increase, with Shanghai Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 3% [1] Retail Sector - Retail concepts showed strength, with Central Plaza and Shanghai Jiubai hitting the daily limit [1] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with multiple stocks including Shengyang Technology and Shunhao Co. hitting the daily limit [1][2] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector continued to perform well, with stocks like Luyan Pharmaceutical and Zhongyao Holdings hitting the daily limit [1][3] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector, including retail, apparel, and food and beverage, led the gains, with stocks like Baida Group achieving six consecutive limits [1][4] Institutional Insights Economic Policy Outlook - Everbright Securities anticipates a favorable cross-year market for A-shares, supported by ongoing domestic economic policies and historical performance trends [5] - Huaxi Securities suggests focusing on the consumer sector as technology rotation slows down, with an emphasis on the high-low cut logic [6] - Bank of China Securities views A-shares as being in a "bull market continuation" phase, highlighting the importance of technology and anti-involution themes for future investment [7]

国家统计局12月15日数据显示，11月份国民经济延续稳中有进发展态势。在以习近平同志为核心的党中 央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署， 坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深 入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，着力推动高质量发展，生产供给基本 平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格继续改善，新质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有 进发展态势。 看消费，中国经济底色厚实。消费是经济发展的"压舱石"，稳住经济基本盘关键在于稳定消费。今年以 来，扩大内需和提振消费也已经成为了经济工作的主线。一系列政策措施作用下，消费市场潜力持续释 放。从相关统计数据来看，11月份，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%；1-11月份，社会 消费品零售总额456067亿元，同比增长4.0%。中央经济工作会议提出，2026年要深入实施提振消费专 项行动，扩大优质商品和服务供给。可以肯定，随着消费潜力持续释放，中国经济底色将更加厚实。 发展是硬道理，高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务。从11月份各项统计数据来看， 国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。我国经济潜力 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong consumer sector experienced slight fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) showing a minor decline of approximately 0.5% [1] - Key stocks that performed well include Zhenjiu Lidu, Xtep International, Master Kong Holdings, Uni-President China, and China Feihe, while stocks like Xiaocaiyuan, Miniso, KANAT Optical, and Jingyuan International saw significant declines [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand domestically, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand as a top priority for China's economic work in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice on December 14, proposing 11 policy measures to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption across various sectors [1] - Tianfeng Securities believes that the consumer sector's valuation has reached a relatively low level, suggesting a reduced expectation for policy changes and a need to focus on new consumption driven by domestic demand [1] - Related popular ETFs include the Tourism ETF (562510) benefiting from holiday catalysts and the Ice and Snow Economy, the Food and Beverage ETF (515170) focusing on boosting domestic demand, and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) linked to e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [2]