Economic Overview - China's economy is showing resilience with a stable growth outlook, supported by proactive macro policies and a strong domestic demand [1][2] - Export growth in the first five months of the year was 6.0% in USD terms, surpassing last year's annual growth of 5.8% [1] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q1 was 38.9%, higher than last year's 30.3% [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic consumption is improving, with retail sales growing by 5.0% year-on-year from January to May, compared to 3.5% for the entire previous year [2] - Key consumer sectors such as communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture saw growth rates exceeding 20% due to the "old-for-new" consumption policy [2] - Fixed asset investment also increased by 3.7% year-on-year in the same period, outpacing last year's 3.2% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with a record-high deficit ratio and significant expansion in special bonds and long-term special bonds [1][3] - The total fiscal space available for the second half of the year exceeds 7 trillion yuan, with ample room for supporting consumption, investment, and foreign trade [3] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, focusing on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than further easing in the short term [2] Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - Economic pressures are manageable, providing a window for structural reforms, including the promotion of a unified national market and the exit of outdated production capacity [3] - The government aims to transition from a manufacturing powerhouse to a major consumer economy, with new policies such as annual childcare subsidies starting in 2025 [3] - Additional measures to boost consumption, including optimizing vacation systems and improving social security, are being actively implemented [3]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need for a unified national market and calls for the standardization of local investment promotion, enhancing transparency in investment information disclosure [1] - Recent policies aim to regulate local investment promotion systems, moving away from resource competition and fiscal subsidies, which will encourage local governments to focus on differentiated competition and improve the business environment [1] - Local governments are encouraged to reform their investment promotion mechanisms, ensuring compliance with established policies and enhancing administrative efficiency to create a market-oriented investment environment [1] Group 2 - There is a pressing need for innovation in investment promotion methods, shifting from extensive competition to a focus on industrial ecosystems and supporting services [2] - A "three-chain" work mechanism is proposed, involving government leadership, enterprise guidance, and support from research institutions to build a comprehensive industrial ecosystem [2] - Cities must provide reliable policies and services to attract businesses, as companies will choose investment locations based on local industrial foundations and business environments rather than just incentives [2] Group 3 - Local governments should focus on reducing various costs, including production, logistics, and tax costs, while utilizing scientific tools like industrial funds to foster a supportive industrial ecosystem [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the recent policy directions aimed at reducing "involution" in various industries, particularly focusing on the solar energy sector and the need for quality improvement and orderly competition [2][11]. Group 1: Policy Directions - On July 1, the Central Economic Committee meeting highlighted the importance of advancing a unified national market, addressing low-price disorderly competition, and promoting the exit of outdated production capacity [2][10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on July 3 with 14 solar industry companies, reiterating the need to implement the decisions from the Central Economic Committee meeting and to enhance product quality [2][11]. Group 2: Trade Relations - The Ministry of Commerce addressed questions regarding U.S.-China trade relations, noting that there is no confirmation of a potential visit by Trump with a business delegation, and emphasized the need for mutual respect and cooperation [3][12]. - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on brandy imported from the EU for five years and stated that measures would be taken in response to the EU's restrictions on Chinese companies in public procurement [3][13]. Group 3: Real Estate Market - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang, urging local authorities to effectively utilize real estate regulation policies and ensure the stability of the real estate market [4][13]. - The report noted that the overall real estate market remains stable, with a year-on-year increase in new and second-hand housing transactions, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's industrial policy has long prioritized over competition policy, leading to micro-level disorder, necessitating a reorientation of industrial policy and placing competition policy at the forefront [1][2] - The current industrial sector is experiencing a phenomenon where costs are decreasing, but profits are declining even faster, indicating a need for comprehensive micro-governance to address low pricing and "involution" issues [1][2] - The focus of policy has shifted towards preventing "involution-style" vicious competition, with the Central Committee emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline and orderly competition [1][2] Group 2 - The primary concern in the macro economy is the persistently low price levels, driven by both demand-side and supply-side factors, including structural issues and the impact of technological advancements [2] - China's labor productivity has increased by nearly 90% over the past decade, with significant cost reductions in new energy sectors, indicating a shift towards new production models [2] - Despite technological upgrades, many industries are experiencing deteriorating financial metrics, with profit margins hitting historical lows due to "involutionary pricing models" leading to fierce competition [2][3] Group 3 - Overcapacity is not a new phenomenon, but the overcapacity in emerging industries and involution may signal the emergence of new systemic issues [3] - The approach to breaking the low-price phenomenon includes expanding domestic demand, social reforms, and micro-restructuring as supplementary measures [3] - A shift in policy thinking is suggested, moving from an industry-led model to a government-led, industry-coordinated, and enterprise-implemented model, elevating competition policy to a central role [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.11%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan [3] - **Funding Market**: On Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42% (1.47% the previous day) [3] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.77 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year fell 0.04 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year rose 0.26 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year rose 0.30 BP to 1.85% [3] - **International Trade**: On July 3, the US government allowed General Electric Aerospace to resume supplying jet engines to Comac. The US also lifted export restrictions on Chinese companies by chip design software developers and ethane producers this week. The US President signed 12 trade letters and plans to send them on Monday. Talks with the EU on trade are progressing, and major news may be announced in the next two days [3] - **Domestic Policy**: Since July 5, 2025, anti - dumping duties have been imposed on imported brandy from the EU. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and called on local governments to implement policies according to local conditions [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but it may take a long time for the effects to show. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [4] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]

Group 1 - The Central Financial Committee held its sixth meeting on July 1, emphasizing the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on key challenges, regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guiding companies to enhance product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The steel industry, as a significant midstream processing sector, is heavily influenced by downstream demand from real estate, leading to prominent supply-demand contradictions, continuous decline in steel prices, and intense low-price competition [1] - Since 2022, the industry's downturn has resulted in an increasing number of steel companies facing losses, with profit shrinkage and losses significantly reducing their capacity to upgrade products [1] Group 2 - With ongoing efforts to combat "involution," the supply-demand landscape for steel is expected to improve, and positive sentiment may drive a recovery in valuations [2] - The only ETF tracking the steel industry (515210) follows the CSI Steel Index, selecting listed companies involved in steel manufacturing, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the steel sector [2] - The constituent stocks cover both upstream and downstream enterprises in the steel industry chain, demonstrating significant industry concentration characteristics [2]

钢材周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 内外政策影响 钢价偏强反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫ 宏观面：中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推 进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 会议强调，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政 府采购和招标投标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化 发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动。美国总统特朗 普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征 收20%关税，任何转运货物将被征收40%的关税。另外， 越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量221万吨，环比 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reform aimed at the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a significant policy shift from self-regulation to higher-level government intervention [6][7] - The market is expected to experience a "pulse-like" behavior due to unclear demand-side conditions, contrasting with the more robust demand seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [7][9] - There is a notable focus on the differentiation between "old industries" (e.g., steel, coal, cement) and "new industries" (e.g., new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic sectors), with a recommendation to prioritize sectors with external demand [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3472.32, reflecting a 0.32% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% [4] - The banking sector showed a strong performance with a 1.84% increase, while the beauty care sector declined by 1.87% [5] Industry Analysis - The report indicates a marginal recovery in production and demand expectations for June, with the PMI showing slight improvement, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial profits [9][10] - It highlights that the price pressures are expected to ease, and inventory levels are likely to remain resilient, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [9][10] - The report suggests that the profitability factors are anticipated to improve, with a focus on high profitability, small-cap, and high-valuation stocks expected to outperform in the coming month [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's new tax and spending legislation on both the U.S. economy and the global economic landscape, emphasizing a shift towards a "small government" approach that includes tax cuts and deregulation, which is expected to enhance productivity and economic growth in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy Changes - The new legislation includes tax reductions, spending cuts, increased military spending, and a rise in the deficit, which collectively aim to boost the U.S. economy [1] - The "small government" philosophy is expected to lower operational costs and improve efficiency within the U.S. economy, potentially increasing marginal labor productivity [1][3] - The ongoing trade conflicts and increased tariffs are anticipated to accelerate the U.S. capital expenditure cycle, as high tariffs may lead multinational companies to invest more in the U.S. market [2] Group 2: Global Economic Implications - The prolonged duration of high tariffs and trade conflicts is likely to further stimulate U.S. capital expenditure, prompting the government to endure and extend conflicts with trade partners [2] - Countries are currently reacting to the trade war initiated by the U.S., often in a defensive manner, which limits their ability to formulate strategic responses [2][3] - Nations, including China, need to prepare comprehensive strategies to counteract U.S. trade policies and avoid falling into a reactive trap [2] Group 3: Domestic Reforms in Response - In light of external uncertainties, domestic reforms in China are accelerating, focusing on building a unified national market and addressing issues like low-price competition [3] - The orderly exit of outdated production capacity and market reforms are expected to enhance China's core competitiveness and reshape its economic framework [3] - A well-matched relationship between limited government and effective markets could elevate China's economic activities and productivity, enabling it to better withstand external shocks [3]

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the importance of understanding and implementing the essence of Xi Jinping's important articles on deepening reforms and maintaining the "two unwavering" principles [1][2] - The city aims to create a leading advantage in key areas of reform and achieve nationally influential reform outcomes [1] Group 1: Urban Infrastructure and Services - The city will accelerate the integration reform of urban water supply, gas supply, and central heating to enhance supply capacity and safety [2] - There will be a focus on improving the rural comprehensive reform to increase collective income and promote modern agricultural development [2] Group 2: Market and Economic Development - The city plans to implement the basic requirements for building a unified national market, emphasizing cross-border e-commerce and deep integration with industrial chains [2] - Efforts will be made to enhance the business environment through comprehensive reforms, aiming for a market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized top-tier business environment [2] Group 3: Health and Education - Continuous deepening of the healthcare system reform will be pursued to promote the coordinated development of medical services, insurance, and pharmaceuticals [2] - The city will advance the integration of education, technology, and talent mechanisms to foster high-level innovation for quality development [2]