泰国央行：若经济增长低于预期，将考虑降息。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, as they are waiting for the economy to respond to various new policies, including trade policies [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% since the beginning of the year, with future monetary policy decisions dependent on evolving data and risk assessments [1][2] - U.S. stock markets reacted positively to Powell's remarks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.19%, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.11%, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.43% on the same day [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in April, with the core PCE price index also increasing by 0.1%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [2] - Powell noted that consumer spending growth has slowed, and there is increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, particularly due to trade policy concerns [2] - Powell indicated that inflation pressures from tariffs are expected to become more apparent starting in June, and the Fed requires more time to assess the impact of tariffs on domestic inflation before considering rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates has led to dissatisfaction from President Trump, who has repeatedly called for rate cuts, arguing that high rates increase government borrowing costs [3] - The Fed's economic projections suggest a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but there is significant divergence among policymakers regarding the balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [3][4] Group 4 - Internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy have emerged, with some officials supporting potential rate cuts while others predict economic slowdown and rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - New York Fed President John Williams expects U.S. economic growth to slow to around 1% this year, with unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation potentially reaching 3% before gradually returning to the 2% target [4] Group 5 - Major financial institutions have differing forecasts for interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a prediction of two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [5] - Barclays Bank's analysis indicates that the Fed's decision-making will heavily depend on the trajectory of tariff policies, with potential rate cuts varying based on inflation trends and economic conditions [5]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.31%至 9664 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.04%至 78470 | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度加大，出口窗口打开。宏观方面，美联 | | | | 储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会首日重申需要看到更多数据判断高关税会怎样影响通胀， | | | | 指出因为预期关税会推升通胀，所以联储至今暂停降息，他不排除关税对通胀的影响 | | | | 可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能，所以 6 月 7 月数据非常关键。关税方面， | | | | 欧盟准备采取更多关税反制措施，另美关税截止日日益临近，是否延长令市场担忧。 | | | | 国内方面，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，后 | | 铜 | | 续政策期待性或增强。库存方面，LME 库存下降 1200 吨至 94675 吨；Comex 铜库存 | | | | 增加 890 吨至 185354 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic data in May was mixed, with investment and exports under pressure while consumption showed resilience. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The US economy is in good condition but there are differences in views on interest rate cuts within the Fed. The Israel - Iran conflict has an uncertain future, which may impact global asset prices. Different commodities have different outlooks based on factors such as tariffs and geopolitical events [1][2][3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. There are expectations of further fiscal measures. The US - China economic and trade consultation made new progress, and there is flexibility in the US tariff schedule [1] - **US Economy**: The Fed maintained interest rates. Powell said the US economy is in good condition, but there are differences in views on interest rate cuts among Fed officials. US retail sales in May declined, while the June Markit manufacturing and services PMIs showed expansion [2] - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: The conflict has lasted for 12 days. Although a cease - fire was announced, there are still disputes and the future is uncertain. Historically, such conflicts can impact global asset prices, including oil, stocks, and precious metals [3] - **Commodities**: For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from US stock adjustments. Agricultural products may see price increases due to tariffs. Energy prices are sensitive to Middle - East geopolitical events, with short - term fluctuations and a medium - term supply - side view of relative abundance. Gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification. Gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] To - Do List - China's central bank will conduct a 3000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on June 25. Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, including a 5000 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [7]

Market Performance - A-shares saw a morning surge with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15% to 3420.57 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.68%, and ChiNext Index increasing by 2.3%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 2.06% at 24177.07 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.14% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.9%[1] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 2404.815 billion HKD[1] U.S. Market Trends - All three major U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones up 1.19%, S&P 500 increasing by 1.11% to 6092.18 points, and Nasdaq rising by 1.43%[1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a balanced stance on interest rate cuts, suggesting a wait-and-see approach regarding tariff impacts on the economy[8] Geopolitical Developments - A fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran remains in place, but the fate of highly enriched uranium is still uncertain, with the International Atomic Energy Agency seeking to return to Iran for verification[8][11] Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, emphasizing structural monetary policy tools and credit support for key service sectors[11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-on-year in May, which is below economists' expectations of 2.3%, indicating a significant increase in market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate cut next month [1] - The trimmed mean CPI, a key inflation indicator monitored by the central bank, fell from 2.8% in April to 2.4% in May, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [1] - The main contributors to annual inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.9%), housing (+2%), and tobacco and alcohol, while electricity prices decreased by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in July surged from 80% to over 90%, indicating strong market sentiment towards monetary easing [1] - The RBA had already cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.85% last month, marking the second policy easing of the year, as policymakers believe the risk of rising price pressures has diminished [4] - The Australian economy is showing signs of a deflationary trend, which provides the RBA with the confidence to consider further rate cuts while maintaining a stable inflation environment [4]

金十数据6月25日讯，道富环球投资管理公司亚太经济学家比玛瓦拉普说，随着通胀从政策雷达上消 失，澳洲联储现在有信心在7月份的政策会议上降息。他表示："我们确信，澳洲联储需要在7月份降 息，以保障经济增长，因为目前通胀显然已经不在他们担心范围内。"他指出，核心CPI均值为2.4%， 是自2021年11月以来的最低水平，并补充说，澳洲联储可能会在下个月大幅降息。 机构：通胀已不再担心范围内 澳洲联储下月可能大幅降息 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that there is no urgency to cut interest rates, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The situation in the Middle East has temporarily stabilized but remains unstable, which could impact market sentiment and oil prices [1] - The proportion of long positions in U.S. crude oil has increased, suggesting bullish sentiment among investors [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have rebounded after hitting a low, with a slight increase in the proportion of long positions in gold [1] - Market sentiment remains uncertain, and further developments in geopolitical situations and economic indicators will be closely monitored [1] Group 3 - The data on various indices shows a significant disparity between long and short positions, with the S&P 500 having 34% long and 66% short positions, while the Dow Jones has a near-even split at 49% long and 51% short [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro/USD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment with 15% long and 85% short positions, while the GBP/USD pair has a contrasting bullish sentiment with 84% long and 16% short positions [3]

金十数据6月25日讯，由于汽油价格下跌和住房成本降温，澳大利亚5月份CPI降幅超过预期，同时核心 通胀触及三年半低点，增强了近期降息的理由。澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，5月份CPI同比 上涨2.1%，低于4月份的2.4%，也低于2.3%的预期中值。5月份，经修正的核心CPI同比增长2.4%，低于 4月份的2.8%，为2021年末以来的最低水平。不包括波动项目和假日旅行的CPI从2.8%降至2.7%。 澳大利亚5月CPI降幅超过预期 为近期降息提供支持 ...

周二公布的咨商会消费者信心指数录得93，低于市场预期100，前值为98. 行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（6月24日）再度收跌，开盘价3387.12美元/盎司，最高价3393.42美元/盎司，最低价3295.31美元/ 盎司，收盘价3313.18美元/盎司。 消息面： 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，认为现在是从数据中观察通胀的时机；如果我们没有看到或看到了，那将很重要。关 税可能对通胀造成一次性冲击，但应谨慎应对这一影响。整体通胀形势呈现积极态势。预计在6月、7月和8月 将会看到关税对通胀产生显著影响。（被问及为何不降息）主要原因在于对关税带来的通胀规模及其可能持续 性存在不确定性。如果通胀受到控制，可以尽早降息。预计从六月份开始，关税引发的通胀压力将逐渐显现。 若通胀预计不会上升，或者劳动力市场疲软，就不用再等待观察了。我们只是建议大家再等等，等待更多的迹 象。目前未看到劳动力市场存在疲软迹象。如果我们看到劳动力市场出现疲软，我们将采取措施进行调整。只 要经济保持强劲，我们可以在此处稍作暂停。目前没有降息的原因是因为，美联储内部和外部的经济预测都预 示今年通胀将出现显著上升。未来利率路径可能有很多种。通胀可能不会像预期的 ...