原来，沃勒已经"反水"不再支持推迟降息，鲍威尔现在也向"沃勒派"的叙事，货币政策从"等等看"迈向 了"可调整"。 上周五晚22：00，受鸽派态度影响金价大 鲍威尔突然急刹车，意外转"鸽"，引发9月降息预期！ 7月FOMC记者会上鲍威尔态度对降息态度强硬，表示担忧贸易冲突导致通胀反弹，暂时不考虑降息。 这一次，在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔一改常态，表示对就业市场形式持悲观态度，这不仅加 强了9月降息25个BP的可能性，更倾向连续性降息。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore's short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors [2][4]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.32%, and the position increased by 1,051 lots to 452,625 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined, and some domestic ore prices remained stable. Basis and spreads had various changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Activity at the SimFer mine site is suspended due to a fatal incident. Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,119 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35%, with a position decrease of 46,508 lots. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,361 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.86%, with a position decrease of 49,335 lots. Spot prices mostly declined, and basis and spreads also changed [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of August 21, rebar production decreased by 5.8 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.65 tons. In July, national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, down 4.0% year - on - year [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5,642 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices and various spreads had different changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 22, silicon 72 and 75 prices in different regions were reported, and silicon manganese 6517 prices decreased. From January to July, the average monthly import of South African manganese ore increased by 6.71% year - on - year [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,162 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. Coke J2601 closed at 1,678.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan. Spot prices and basis had various changes [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price decreased by 0.4% daily and 1.2% weekly. The 2511 contract's trading volume increased by 49.2% daily and 70% weekly. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21].

US Treasury Market - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 7.44 basis points to 3.707%[2] - The 5-year US Treasury yield fell by 7.18 basis points to 3.769%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 5.45 basis points to 4.261%[4] Economic and Market Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish stance indicates economic risks justify rate cuts[3] - Fitch Ratings confirmed the US "AA+" rating with a stable outlook[3] - Canada will eliminate retaliatory tariffs on several US products[3] - In the first seven months of this year, China attracted foreign investment of 467.34 billion RMB[3] Stock Market Performance - Nasdaq Index closed at 21,496.53, up by 1.88%[5] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,631.74, up by 1.89%[5] - S&P 500 Index closed at 6,466.91, up by 1.52%[5] - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,825.76, up by 1.45%[5]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20710，基差80，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周减8047吨至 124605吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向下运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 现货价格 数据来源：Wind 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退 ...

8月24日，和讯投顾吴青宇称，牛市周末利好消息扎堆。先说本周五世界央行大会上，鲍威尔秒变鸽 派，称经济风险为降息提供了足够理由。要我说，鲍威尔也别遮遮掩掩了，干脆直接降息得了，上周二 还提到9月份可能不降息，美联储主席的话真是难以捉摸。受此消息刺激，美股大涨，三大指数收盘涨 幅均超1.5%，中概股更是强势，收盘大涨近4%。看来明天A股行情稳了。此外，国内期货黑色系大 涨，纽交所金银铜铝原油也全线大涨，这利好有色相关板块。第二，央行开始行动，下周一将开展6000 亿中期借贷便利操作。指数突破3800点后，央行仍敢在此位置提供流动性，看来4000点未必是顶部。第 三，中国光伏行业协会倡议抵制低成本恶意竞争，反对违反市场经济规律和法律法规盲目扩产增产的行 为。目前受缺货涨价影响，光伏组件厂报价为0.7元/瓦，这利好光伏行业。期待下周一光伏行业能否迎 来轮动上涨，明天市场就要开市了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decrease in household deposits in July indicates a potential shift of funds from savings to other investment avenues, possibly driven by declining interest rates and a desire for better returns [1][4][5] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In July, household deposits in RMB decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, which is 780 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - Non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Behavior - The reaction to the news suggests that many believe the stock market's rebound has motivated residents to move their funds into equities, contributing to the market's upward momentum [3] - There is uncertainty regarding how much of the "moved" deposits have actually entered the stock market versus other investment forms [3] Group 3: Economic Implications - The continuous decline in interest rates has led to a lack of trust in savings, prompting residents to seek ways to preserve and grow their wealth [4] - The management's intention appears to be encouraging residents to shift savings into consumption and other economically stimulating areas rather than keeping them in low-interest bank accounts [5] Group 4: Challenges and Concerns - There is a significant gap between the management's hopes for increased consumption and the residents' willingness to invest, as many face financial pressures such as housing loans and rising living costs [5][9] - The forced reduction of insurance product returns alongside lower savings rates may push residents to seek investment opportunities abroad, complicating the domestic financial landscape [5][7] Group 5: Market Stability - For the stock market to be a viable option for residents, it must be stable and not subject to extreme fluctuations that could deter investment [9] - The focus should be on ensuring that investors, particularly retail investors, can profit from the market, which would encourage a more favorable environment for the movement of household deposits [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a positive opening on August 24, influenced by signals of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with significant gains in technology and internet ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 2% during intraday trading, while the Hang Seng Internet ETF reached a nearly 20-day high [1] - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF increased by nearly 1%, with a year-to-date gain approaching 100% [1] Group 2: Fund Inflows - As market sentiment improved, there was a notable influx of funds, with the Hang Seng Internet ETF seeing over 1.2 billion in subscriptions over three consecutive days as of August 22 [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF attracted over 5.4 billion in subscriptions in the past 20 days [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a clear signal for interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, suggesting an imminent rate cut in September [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut surged to nearly 90%, according to CME FedWatchTool data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by multiple factors providing support for gold prices, including expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold is currently trading around $3,363.28 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1]. - The highest price reached was $3,371.39 per ounce, while the lowest was $3,362.88 per ounce during the trading session [1]. - The dollar index experienced a significant drop last Friday, breaking its recent upward trend and key support levels, which has strengthened bearish sentiment [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium have reinforced market expectations for a rate cut in September, which is seen as a positive for the gold market [2][3]. - There is a general expectation among officials for two rate cuts within the year, with a high likelihood of a September cut [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - President Trump's plans to impose tariffs on furniture products and potential tariffs on semiconductors, which could be as high as 300%, are expected to further support gold prices [2]. - Ongoing uncertainties regarding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine continue to create a favorable environment for gold [2]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will trend upward over the next year, driven by strong structural demand from central banks and the anticipated shift towards more accommodative monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months is estimated at 30%, which could further enhance gold's appeal as a long-term investment [3]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a corrective phase after a significant rise, with expectations of a rebound following this adjustment [4]. - Key support levels to watch include $3,270 and $3,220, which may provide buying opportunities if tested [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium has sparked bullish sentiment in Asian markets, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in September, leading to a strong start for Asian equities and currencies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Analysts predict that if the market's expectations for rate cuts intensify before the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Asian stock markets will be positively impacted [3]. - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new high for the year, while emerging market currencies ended a six-day decline due to Powell's comments leading to a depreciation of the dollar [2]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Gerald Gan from Reed Capital believes that controlled appreciation of the yen will not severely impact Japanese risk assets, suggesting a potential for continued growth in the Japanese stock market next year [3]. - Priyanka Kishore from Asia Decoded notes that a weaker dollar may temporarily support Asian currencies, but any gains could be short-lived unless the Fed commits to more substantial easing measures [3]. - Hebe Chen from Vantage Markets indicates that Powell's signals could help mend underlying market vulnerabilities, particularly in tech-heavy markets like Japan and Taiwan, where sentiment is more fragile [3]. - Jamie Halse from Senjin Capital suggests that lower U.S. interest rates may lead to capital flowing out of the U.S. in search of higher returns elsewhere, which could benefit Asian economies [3]. - Anna Wu from VanEck Associates highlights that Powell's dovish stance has alleviated concerns about September rate cuts, boosting market risk sentiment, particularly for Japanese equities [3]. - Tim Waterer from KCM Trade emphasizes that Powell's moderate tone at the Jackson Hole meeting has been well-received by risk asset markets, potentially benefiting Asian economies [3]. Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market points out that while Powell's comments suggest a possible rate cut in September, he is not firmly committed, indicating that the dollar-yen exchange rate may not break its volatility range [3]. - Kazuya Fujiwara from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities notes that Japanese government bond prices may stabilize due to lower U.S. rates, but the upside is limited due to expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike [3]. - Yusuke Matsuo from Mizuho Securities states that the Bank of Japan is considering rate hikes while the Fed is contemplating cuts, leading to expectations of yen appreciation and dollar depreciation [3][4].

Domestic Economic Indicators - In the week of August 25 to August 31, key domestic economic data such as July's industrial enterprise profits and August's PMI will be released [1] - The cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.67 billion kilowatts by the end of July, marking an 18.2% year-on-year increase [5] Stock Market Developments - This week, A-shares will see the unlocking of nearly 92.4 billion yuan worth of restricted shares, with 37 stocks facing unlocks totaling 5.068 billion shares [3] - The top three companies by unlock market value are Xugong Machinery (31.9 billion yuan), Dazhu CNC (31.6 billion yuan), and Rongbai Technology (5.7 billion yuan) [3] International Economic Events - The European Central Bank will release the minutes from its July monetary policy meeting, and the U.S. will publish the July PCE price index [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts, suggesting potential adjustments in monetary policy due to economic conditions [10] Industry-Specific Developments - The 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo will take place from August 28 to 30, highlighting advancements in the big data sector [1] - The 2025 China Charging Facility Industry Operation Service Development Conference is also scheduled, indicating ongoing developments in the energy sector [1] Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has modified the classification and evaluation regulations for securities companies, effective from August 22, to promote high-quality development and enhance risk management [7]