1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rallies for polysilicon [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and cost data, and also mentions a corporate financing project and the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2509 closing price is 7,420 yuan/ton, PS2507 closing price is 30,615 yuan/ton. There are also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis for both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures [2] - **Spot Price and Premium**: Prices of various grades of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with their spot premiums. For example, the spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +705 yuan/ton [2] - **Profit and Inventory**: Silicon factory profits are negative, with -3776 yuan/ton for Xinjiang new - standard 553. Industrial silicon social inventory is 55.9 million tons, and polysilicon factory inventory is 26.2 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., are given. For example, the price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 370 yuan/ton [2] - **Photovoltaic Product Data**: Prices and profit data of photovoltaic products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc., are presented. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers is 0.9 yuan/piece [2] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: DMC price is 10,400 yuan/ton, and ADC12 price is 20,000 yuan/ton. Their corresponding enterprise profits are also provided [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Shanghai Aikosolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to issue A - shares to raise up to 3.5 billion yuan for the Yiwu Phase VI 15GW high - efficiency crystalline silicon solar cell project and to supplement working capital. The project has good economic benefits with a financial internal rate of return of 10.17% and an investment payback period of 6.26 years [3][4] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a neutral view on industrial silicon and a bearish view on polysilicon [4]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 24 日 黄金：地缘政治停火 白银：继续冲高 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 781.30 | 0.35% | #N/A | #VALUE! | | | 黄金T+D | 777.94 | 0.17% | #N/A | #VALUE! | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3384.40 | 0.00% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8770 | 1.20% | #N/A | #VALUE! | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 8730 | 0.76% | #N/A | #VALUE! | | | Comex白银2508 | 36.400 | 1.25% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪金2508合约对2512合约价 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年6月24日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.1万吨，环比有所增加2.53%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.1万吨，环比减少13.41%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为26.2万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 72800吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为82元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率 为68.4%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.38万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为674元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为655.4元/吨，再生铝开 工率为53.6%，还比减少0.55%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本 ...

2025年06月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国际油价回落，油脂单边回调 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随回落 | 4 | | 豆一：市场氛围偏空，或调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 8 | | 棉花：缺乏上涨驱动 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：远月预期偏弱 | 11 | | 生猪：短期震荡 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：国际油价回落，油脂单边回调 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.19% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.94% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 信心稍有回暖，基本面延续承压 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-23 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.54万吨，比12日-0.16%。行业开工率为75.34%，比12日-0.08个百分点；行业产能利用率为77.7%， | | | | 比12日+0.22个百分点。本周供应面增减并存，增量方面，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，减量方面，一条产线放水叠加一条产线热修，周度供 | | | | 应量环比小幅上涨。下周2条前期点火产线或将开始出玻璃，另有1条产线存在放水预期，预计下周周度产量环比小幅减少。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工 ...

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral, with some factors leaning towards the bearish side [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. Market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show a neutral situation overall, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is trading above the 20 - day line but the 20 - day line is downward, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, and short - term trading is influenced by market sentiment [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is at a high level [4][6] - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on June 20. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. Recently, the exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have not changed much [4][14][17] - **Basis**: The spot price is 13,950, and the basis is 50, showing a neutral situation. The basis turned positive on June 20 [4][35] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 燃料油：夜盘窄幅调整，短期易涨难跌 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏强，外盘现货高低硫 价差继续反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2508 | 元/吨 | 3, 390 | -0. 09% | | 3.403 | 1.22% | | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 3.363 | 1.22% | | 3,379 | 1.26% | | | | LU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,965 | -0. 83% | | 3.980 | 0.94% | | | | LU2509 | 元/吨 | 3.917 | 0. 94% | | 3.934 | 0.90% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2508 | र ...

2025年06月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴政策及中东地缘情绪均偏好 | 2 | | 豆粕：天气正常、美豆收跌，连粕或回落 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：阶段性反弹 | 8 | | 棉花：缺乏上涨驱动 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：提前交易旺季预期 | 11 | | 生猪：短期震荡 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：美国生柴政策及中东地缘情绪均偏好 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 期货研究 41 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 集运指数（欧线）：10 空单持有，逢高酌情加仓 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2506 | 1,891.0 0.29% | | 635 | 3,533 | -307 | 0.18 | 0.19 | | | EC2508 | 1,890.0 -6.99% | | 68,944 | 45,968 | 3,393 | 1.50 | 1.16 | | | EC2510 | -3.42% 1,360.0 | | 12,898 | 29,785 | 866 | 0.43 | 0.36 | | | | 本 期 | | 2025/6/16 | | 单 位 | | 周涨幅 | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 1,697.63 | | | 点 | | 4.6% | | 运 价 | 美西航线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side calcium carbide prices are weak, while ethylene prices show a slight rebound, but overall, the valuation drive remains insufficient. Recently, the strong performance of crude oil due to geopolitical factors has provided some stimulation to the market. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be weak, and attention should be mainly paid to external influences [5]. - Operationally, aggressive investors can take a small - scale long position. For the 2509 contract, the support level can be referred to as 4780, and investors can buy and hold put options for protection [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, the negative value of the PVC 1 - 5 spread narrowed and was higher year - on - year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable month - on - month and was lower year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure still maintained a contango pattern with higher prices in the distant future, indicating that expectations are stronger than the current situation [12]. - The 9 - 1 spread was weakly stable last week and was higher year - on - year. The basis of the main contract remained stable month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [15]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 PVC Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 28 million tons, with the second - phase 300,000 - ton/year new capacity of Shaanxi Jintai. Last week, the PVC output was 462,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.33%, mainly due to the maintenance of Henan Yuhang and Xinjiang Zhongtai Huatai plants [19]. 3.2.2 Calcium Carbide Method Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity is 20.33 million tons, accounting for about 72.6%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.72% [22]. 3.2.3 Ethylene Method Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective ethylene - based PVC production capacity is 7.67 million tons, accounting for about 27.4%. Last week, the output was 118,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.71% and a year - on - year increase of 3.48% [25]. 3.2.4 PVC Start - up and Maintenance - Last week, the upstream PVC start - up rate was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 125,700 tons [28]. - Last week, the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points, at a high level in the same period. The start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.48 percentage points, at a relatively low level in the same period [32]. 3.2.5 PVC and Product Imports - From January to April 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 85,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. From January to April, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 6.8615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.11% [37]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio - From January to April 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 6.7463 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.33%. Last week, the PVC production - sales ratio was 140%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2 percentage points [42]. 3.3.2 Downstream Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of downstream products was generally weak. Affected by the traditional rainy - season off - season, the start - up of pipe and profile enterprises continued to decline, and the real estate at the macro level still dragged down the terminal demand [45]. 3.3.3 Exports - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC was 1.3365 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.27%, with an obvious export - grabbing effect. PVC powder was mainly exported to India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc., and the proportion of exports to India was 43.9% [52]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC floor covering materials was 141.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.67%. They were mainly exported to Europe and the United States. Among them, the proportion of exports to the United States was 27.6%, Canada 9.4%, Germany 5.6%, Australia 3.6%, and the Netherlands 3.5%. Against the background of the tariff war, the export of products to the United States is expected to continue to shrink [54]. 3.3.4 Real Estate and Infrastructure - From a macro perspective, PVC is a commodity with a post - cycle demand in the real estate industry, and its downstream demand is closely related to the real estate industry. From January to May 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8%, the completed area decreased by 17.3%, and the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. The real estate market generally performed stably, and local policy optimization mainly focused on optimizing the provident fund policy. In the first half of June, driven by improved supply and real - estate enterprise promotions, the new - home market in key cities continued to recover, but the differentiation between cities and between new and old projects would still continue, and policy support was still needed to stop the market decline and promote stability [57]. - In terms of infrastructure, in May, the full - caliber and narrow - caliber (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) infrastructure investment growth rates were 9.2% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points from January to March. As constraints are expected to be further alleviated, infrastructure investment may maintain high - speed growth [57]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (21 companies) was 355,100 tons, remaining the same month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 41.19%. The PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 569,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, and export deliveries increased [59]. - The enterprise inventory was 401,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% and a year - on - year increase of 25.23%. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [64]. 3.5 Valuation 3.5.1 Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide - Last week, the blue - coke price remained stable and was lower year - on - year. The calcium carbide price was weakly stable, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,350 yuan/ton. The power cost decreased, and the decline in the start - up rate of calcium carbide enterprises was less than expected [68]. 3.5.2 Ethylene and Vinyl Chloride - Last week, the ethylene price rebounded month - on - month and was slightly lower year - on - year. The domestic and imported ethylene supplies were relatively tight, and the sharp increase in ethane and crude oil pushed up costs. The vinyl chloride price remained stable month - on - month and was lower year - on - year [71]. 3.5.3 Liquid Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine - Last week, the price of liquid caustic soda decreased month - on - month and was higher year - on - year. The price of liquid chlorine decreased month - on - month and was weaker year - on - year [74]. 3.5.4 PVC Profit - Last week, the loss of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC narrowed slightly month - on - month but was still at the highest loss level in the same period over the years; the loss of ethylene - based PVC widened again month - on - month and was also at the weakest level in the same period [77]. 3.5.5 Chlor - Alkali Profit - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [81].