【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2506收盘价（元/吨） | 8,205 | -110 | -335 | -1,615 | | | | Si2506成交量（手） | 345,726 | -51,132 | 145,784 | 209,026 | | | | Si2506持仓量（手） | 170,178 | -10,933 | -24,975 | -9,420 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2506收盘价（元/吨） | 37,830 | 880 | 510 | - | | | | PS2506成交量（手） | 443,819 | -11,222 | 326,821 | - | | | | PS2506持仓量（手） | 67,256 | -246 | 9,048 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -20 | -5 | 15 | -20 | | | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期成本（元/ ...

白银：震荡回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 12 日 黄金：中美贸易取得进展 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 786.32 | -0.36% | 790.74 | 0.33% | | | 黄金T+D | 785.30 | -0.28% | 786.10 | 0.42% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3324.44 | 0.27% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3329.00 | 0.57% | - | - | | | 沪银2506 | 8168 | 0.90% | 8221.00 | 0.88% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 8150 ...

2025 年 05 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：大幅反弹 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 【综合快讯】 1. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解，贵州地区成交 0.5 万吨现货氧化铝，出厂价格 3000 元/吨，为贸易商采购 交付省内铝厂长单。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 期货研究 2. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解：5 月 8 日，山东地区成交 0.5 万吨现货氧化铝，出厂成交价格 2880 元/吨， 相较上一笔成交价格上涨 5 元/吨，据了解以执行长单形式流向新疆市场。 3. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解：5 月 8 日，河南地区成交 0.2 万吨现货氧化铝，出厂价格 2940 元/吨，氧 化铝厂出货，流向西北铝厂。 【趋势强度】 铝趋势强度：0；氧化铝趋势强度：0。 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. Each commodity has its own market situation, supply - demand relationship, and price trend, and corresponding trading suggestions are given based on these factors [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Trading Strategies**: PX for month - spread positive arbitrage and processing fee expansion; for PTA, with improved demand expectations, go long on PTA and short on MEG; for MEG, the same strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [4][7]. - **Market Conditions**: PX price increased on May 8; PTA load decreased this week but is expected to rebound, and a PTA device in Taiwan is planned for maintenance in early June; MEG supply continued to increase, with coal - based and oil - based devices having new changes, and some overseas devices restarted [7][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as closing prices, month - spreads, and basis differences of PX, PTA, and MEG changed daily [8]. 3.2 Rubber - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate [4]. - **Market Conditions**: In April, the prices of main raw materials such as natural rubber and carbon black dropped significantly, and the tire raw material cost decreased. The domestic terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the sales of factories and agents slowed down [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of rubber changed daily [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate with support [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The cost side of butadiene has support, and the demand for synthetic rubber has increased. The supply of butadiene has decreased, and the inventory of butadiene production enterprises has decreased [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of synthetic rubber changed daily [20]. 3.4 Asphalt - **Trading Strategy**: Crude oil rebounded, and inventory slightly accumulated [4]. - **Market Conditions**: This week, the domestic asphalt weekly output increased, and the factory and social inventories both increased slightly [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of asphalt changed daily [23]. 3.5 LLDPE - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, with later pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The LLDPE market price partially declined, and the market trading atmosphere was light. Considering factors such as new production capacity and weak demand, the price trend still has pressure [35][36]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of LLDPE changed daily [35]. 3.6 PP - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price slightly declined, and the trading was average [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market fluctuated slightly, the futures had limited guidance on the spot market, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average [41]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of PP changed daily [40]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, with later pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The caustic soda price rebounded due to short - term downstream replenishment, but considering the off - season demand in the second quarter, it is necessary to compress profits and reduce supply to balance supply and demand [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of caustic soda changed daily [43]. 3.8 Pulp - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate [4]. - **Market Conditions**: This cycle, the pulp price continued to be weak, with pessimistic sentiment, abundant supply, and weak demand [49]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of pulp changed daily [48]. 3.9 Glass - **Trading Strategy**: The original sheet price was stable [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic float glass original sheet price rose and fell in different regions, and the trading atmosphere was not strong [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and important spot prices of glass changed daily [52]. 3.10 Methanol - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillating under pressure [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market mainly declined, with high production supply and expected increase in import supply. The port inventory slightly accumulated, and in the medium term, it entered a weak pattern [58]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of methanol changed daily [56]. 3.11 Urea - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to run strongly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The urea enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the futures price was expected to oscillate with support due to the release of demand and increased speculation [62]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of urea changed daily [61]. 3.12 Styrene - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene dropped, and the price of styrene is expected to be weak. The supply of pure benzene increased, demand decreased, and the downstream terminal orders of styrene decreased [65]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of styrene changed daily [64]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Trading Strategy**: The spot market changed little [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with device operations having minor changes, and downstream demand remaining cautious [67]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of soda ash changed daily [67]. 3.14 LPG - **Trading Strategy**: With intensified crude oil fluctuations, short - term wide - range oscillation [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The Saudi CP expectations for propane and butane increased on May 7, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased this week [69][76]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of LPG changed daily [69]. 3.15 PVC - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The PVC fundamentals have high supply and uncertain demand. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the export demand can only relieve the pressure periodically [81]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, basis differences, and spot prices of PVC changed daily [80]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic fuel oil continued to rebound, and the low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened in the short term, with the high - low sulfur spread of the overseas market temporarily stabilizing [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot prices of fuel oil in overseas markets had narrow - range adjustments [85]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and basis differences of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed daily [85]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Trading Strategy**: Low - level oscillation, and lightly hold the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The freight rates of European and US - West routes had different trends, and the prices of current - period European - line freight had different quotes [88]. - **Fundamentals**: Data such as futures prices, trading volumes, and freight rate indices of the container freight index (European line) changed daily [88].

2025年05月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：美英贸易达成一致 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：现货偏强，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：短期震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 789.14 | -1.49% | 786.42 | -1.81% | | | 黄金T+D | 787.53 | -1.42% | 783.00 | -1.78% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3374.94 | -0.75% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3210.00 | -4.80% | - | - | | | ...

王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,383 | -1.43% | 3,430 | 1.39% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,364 | -1.35% | 3,407 | 1.28% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2506 | 手 | 185,411 | (48,203) | 109,483 | (4,853) | | | BU2507 | 手 | 55,212 | 879 | 126,542 | 7,086 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 87690 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 | | | 价差 | 基差（山东-0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP price fluctuates, and the low - level transactions are relatively good. The domestic PP market shows a narrow - range fluctuation, and the futures' shock has limited guidance for the spot market. The upstream petrochemical enterprises have partially lowered their factory prices, and the downstream purchasing is mainly for rigid demand with a mediocre trading atmosphere [1][2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2509 yesterday was 7029, with a daily increase of 0.34%. The trading volume was 321,988, and the open interest decreased by 14,290 [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of the 09 contract was 141 yesterday (205 the day before), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 77 yesterday (96 the day before) [1] - **Important Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price range was 7050 - 7290 yuan/ton yesterday (7040 - 7290 the day before); in East China, it was 7100 - 7280 yuan/ton yesterday (7100 - 7250 the day before); in South China, it was 7180 - 7370 yuan/ton yesterday (7150 - 7360 the day before) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market fluctuates within a narrow range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The PP futures' shock has limited guidance for the spot market. The upstream petrochemical enterprises have partially lowered their factory prices. The offers from holders are differentiated based on spot supply and order - opening costs. Some tight - supply resources have seen a slight price increase, while the low prices of individual varieties have loosened. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing is average, mainly for rigid demand, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is mediocre [2] Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2]

2025 年 5 月 8 日 商 品 研 究 沥青：跟随油价震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,432 | 2.11% | 3,407 | -0.73% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,410 | 2.03% | 3,388 | -0.65% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | BU2506 | 手 | 233,614 | 39,209 | 114,336 | 418 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 54,333 | 1,239 | 119,456 | 7,848 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 87690 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 ...

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观因素影响，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观因素影响，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：电煤疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 8 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, increasing raw material output and new rubber supply. After the May Day holiday, the downstream tire industry's operating rate is in a stage of recovery, and procurement demand is expected to increase. During the holiday, the Japanese rubber futures rose 1.27%, but international oil prices tumbled. With the recovery of domestic tire enterprises' operating rates after the holiday, demand factors strengthened, boosting the rubber price to stabilize and rebound. On Tuesday night, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 0.68% to 14,910 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ oil - producing countries agreed to continue to accelerate production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the release of bearish sentiment on the first day after the holiday, international crude oil futures prices rebounded on Tuesday night, driving the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract to rise slightly. The futures price rose 1.11% to 11,435 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday [7].