12月5日，美国就业咨询公司Challenger， Gray & Christmas周四发布报告称，美国雇主11月宣布的裁员 计划为71，320人，较10月的153，070人下降53%，但同比仍上升24%。今年1月至11月，美国雇主累计 宣布裁员计划117万人，较去年同期增长54%。该数据已达2020年以来的最高水平。 报告指出，这是自 1993年以来第六次在11月底前累计裁员人数突破110万。 11月的裁员总数是自2022年（宣布裁员76， 835人）以来该月份的最高值。这也是今年以来第八次月度裁员人数高于去年同期。 职场专家、 Challenger公司首席营收官安迪·查林杰表示："美国上月裁员计划确实有所减少，这无疑是一个积极信 号。但需要看到，自2008年以来，仅有2022年和2008年的11月裁员人数超过7万人。" 另外，世界黄金协会（WGC）周四发布的报告显示，黄金在2025年表现亮眼，不断刷新历史纪录，而 以当前价位计算，2026年黄金价格有望再上涨15%至30%。受美国关税政策和地缘政治紧张局势的推 动，投资者纷纷涌向黄金这一传统避险资产，金价今年迄今已累计上涨约60%。各国央行的购金举措及 其 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.65%，报收 64.04 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.4%，报收 13790 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 9091 手至 51.31 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14585 元/吨，较前一日上涨 15 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，数据 | | | | 显示美国就业仍有韧性，美联储降息预期小幅波动，美元指数震荡走强，美棉价 | | | | 格承压下行。基本面方面，近期美棉出口仍然承压，拖累美棉价格。此外关注将 | | | 棉花 | 于下周发布的 USDA12 月报。国内市场方面，郑棉期价低开，尾盘跌幅收窄。我 | 震荡 | | | 们认为宏观有利好预期、棉花需求相对稳定、年度供需压力不大是近期行情主要 | | | | 驱动因素。但需要看到的是，当前多空因素均有，供应压力仍存，若价格持续上 | | | | 行，上方还有套保压力。展望未来，短期郑棉或仍偏震荡运行为主，随着时间推 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened in the late trading session, driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (601600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs [1] - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper [1] - Long-term supply constraints and low inventory levels provide substantial support for aluminum prices [1] - Despite December being a traditional off-peak consumption season, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain constrained, keeping the market in a "tight balance" in the long term [1] - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of new capacity remains uncertain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a remarkable surge, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, marking its best annual performance since 1979, as prices surpassed $58, setting a historical record and leading to a significant increase in trading volume [1] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Silver's recent price trajectory has shown a clear acceleration, with an 18.6% increase in November, primarily concentrated in the last week of the month, where prices soared by 14.5%, indicating a strong short squeeze that has continued into December [2] - The gold/silver ratio has decreased to the 72-74 range, suggesting a market revaluation of silver [2] - The volatility premium for silver call options has reached its highest point since 2022, indicating heightened market interest [2] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The current supply shortage of silver is systemic rather than regional, linked to the production of base metals like copper, lead, and zinc, which are often mined alongside silver [3] - A recent request from CSPT for member companies to reduce copper mine operating loads by over 10% could lead to a significant reduction in silver supply, estimated at 800-900 tons, which represents about 3% of global silver production [3] Group 3: Macro Policy Influence - Recent statements from multiple Federal Reserve officials expressing support for a potential interest rate cut in December have created strong expectations for lower rates, which in turn enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [4] - The possibility of tariffs on silver by the Trump administration has altered global inventory flow patterns, potentially locking silver already in the U.S. and exacerbating supply tightness in other regions [5] Group 4: Dual Attributes of Silver - Silver's dual nature as both a financial asset and an industrial metal creates a complementary effect; during economic downturns, its financial attributes provide support, while in recovery phases, its industrial properties drive demand [6] - Current market conditions are characterized by a rare synergy where expectations of rate cuts and risk aversion bolster its financial attributes, while green transitions and supply chain pressures enhance its commodity characteristics [7] Group 5: Short-term Risks - The current parabolic rise in silver prices is concerning, with high volatility (annual volatility around 30%), suggesting potential price fluctuations between $40 and $75 per ounce in the coming year [8] - Historical patterns indicate that extreme price surges in silver often lead to sharp corrections, highlighting the risk of a significant pullback in the event of negative news [8]

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo's stock price has reached a historical high, driven by strong market expectations for continued double-digit profit growth and the overall strength of the banking sector, influenced by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Wells Fargo's management expects net interest income (NII) for Q4 2025 to be between $12.4 billion and $12.5 billion, compared to $11.8 billion in the same period last year [1] - The bank's trading-related assets have increased by approximately 50% compared to the end of 2023, with fee income from investment banking growing by 19% in the first nine months of 2025 [2] Group 2: Asset Cap Removal and Growth Potential - The removal of the $1.95 trillion asset cap in June 2025 allows Wells Fargo to expand its balance sheet, increasing deposits, loan portfolios, and securities holdings, which is expected to boost NII [2] - The bank is focusing on deposit growth through enhanced marketing and digital customer outreach, with a 9% increase in new credit card accounts in the first nine months of 2025 [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Efficiency - Wells Fargo has made steady progress in improving cost efficiency, with a projected compound annual growth rate of non-interest expenses at -1.3% through 2024 [3] - The bank plans to reduce its branch network by 2.1% by Q3 2025, resulting in a workforce reduction of 4.3% to 211,000 employees [3] - Management anticipates achieving $15 billion in gross expense reductions by the end of the year through investments in digital capabilities and process automation [3] Group 4: Liquidity and Capital Allocation - As of September 30, 2025, Wells Fargo's liquidity coverage ratio stands at 121%, exceeding the regulatory minimum, with total liquid assets of $486.1 billion [4] - The bank has increased its common stock dividend by 12.5% to $0.45 per share after passing the Federal Reserve's stress test, with a current dividend yield of 2% [4] Group 5: Stock Buyback and Market Outlook - Following a $30 billion stock buyback plan announced in July 2023, Wells Fargo's board approved an additional $40 billion buyback plan in April 2025, with $34.7 billion remaining for repurchase as of September 30, 2025 [5] - The average market rating for Wells Fargo is "Buy," with target prices ranging from $93.71 to $95.54, indicating potential upside from current stock levels [5]

美联储突传重磅，矿业ETF（561330）涨超2%，把握年内涨超有色的矿业ETF布局机会。 相关机构表示，美联储降息预期持续升温。受一系列疲软的就业数据影响，交易员正加大力度押注美联 储将进一步降息。高盛在最新的报告中指出，美国劳动力市场明显出现了降温迹象，美联储12月降息25 个基点已经基本板上钉钉。据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间12月5日7:00，美联储12月降息25个基 点的概率升至87%。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。根据 Wind数据，截至2025年12月4日，矿业ETF（561330）跟踪指数较中证有色指数有超10%的超额幅度， 具备龙头更集中，"黄金+铜+稀土"占比更高的特点。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas employment data is mixed, with the yen rising due to expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, and the market focusing on subsequent rate - hike magnitudes; in the domestic market, A - shares are in a weak shock, and the bond market is accelerating its decline [2][3]. - Silver prices are in a high - level correction and are expected to continue to adjust in the short term; copper prices remain strong; aluminum shows a bullish trend; alumina is still searching for a bottom; casting aluminum has a good fundamental outlook; zinc prices are oscillating strongly; lead prices are oscillating strongly; tin prices are consolidating at a high level; industrial silicon prices are oscillating narrowly; steel prices are oscillating; iron ore prices are under pressure; double - coke prices are oscillating weakly; bean and rapeseed meal prices are oscillating; palm oil prices are oscillating within a range [4][6][8][11][12][15][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: US November Challenger layoffs were 71,000, with the year - on - year growth rate slowing to 24%, but the scale was the highest for the same period since 2022. The latest initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022. The yen rose due to expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates in December, and long - term bond yields soared to multi - decade highs. The US dollar index rebounded to 99, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.10%, the US stock market was flat, oil prices rose by more than 1%, and gold and copper prices slightly declined [2]. - Domestic: A - shares on Thursday had a shrinking - volume shock and significant structural differentiation, with the ChiNext and STAR Market performing better, and the micro - cap and dividend styles falling significantly. More than 3,800 stocks in the two markets closed down, and the trading volume dropped to 1.56 trillion yuan, the lowest since August. The bond market accelerated its correction, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) hit a new low this year. The 10Y and 30Y yields rose to 1.85% and 2.25% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose slightly, while silver futures fell 1.86% to $57.53 per ounce, and platinum and palladium futures also declined. Silver prices corrected due to investors taking profits, but gold prices were still supported by safe - haven demand. The latest US employment data did not affect the expectation of an interest - rate cut this month. It is expected that silver prices will continue to adjust in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Thursday, the main Shanghai copper contract oscillated around 91,000 yuan, and LME copper oscillated around $11,500. The domestic near - month C structure narrowed. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper was weak. LME inventory remained at 163,000 tons, while COMEX inventory increased to 436,000 tons. Glencore plans to restart its Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year and lowered its 2026 copper production guidance from 930,000 tons to 810,000 - 870,000 tons. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 22,115 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. LME aluminum closed at $2,887.5/ton, down 0.33%. The end - of - year energy - storage consumption expectation is rising, and the aluminum ingot social inventory has not entered the accumulation cycle during the traditional consumption off - season. The long - position sentiment in the market continues, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a bullish trend [8][9]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,615 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,851 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. At the end of the year when long - term contracts are negotiated, the willingness to cut production is still weak. There have been extremely low spot transaction prices in recent days, and alumina is expected to continue to search for a bottom [10]. Casting Aluminum - On Thursday, the main casting aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 21,070 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The shortage pattern of scrap aluminum in the raw material end is difficult to change, and the cost support is rising. The end - of - year rush - volume demand still supports the industry's resilience. Overall, the fundamentals of casting aluminum are healthy, and the price outlook is positive [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main Shanghai zinc 2601 contract rose after an intraday high and then fell back, and oscillated strongly at night. LME zinc closed up. The market supply of zinc is still tight, and the premium is strengthening. The overall situation is that both macro and micro factors are favorable in the short term, supporting zinc prices to oscillate strongly, but the negative feedback of high prices is emerging in the consumption off - season, and it is expected that the contract price will fluctuate around the integer level [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main Shanghai lead 2601 contract oscillated strongly during the day, and the center of gravity continued to rise at night. LME lead closed up. The social inventory decreased by 7,100 tons compared with Monday. It is expected that lead prices will oscillate strongly in the short term [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, the main Shanghai tin 2601 contract rose after an intraday high and then fell back, and oscillated narrowly at night. LME tin moved sideways. It is expected that tin prices will mainly consolidate at a high level in the short term [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. From the supply side, the supply is converging; from the demand side, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent recently. It is expected that the contract price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [16][17]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated. The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the supply and demand of rebar have improved, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have not changed much. Overall, the supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is expected that steel prices will oscillate [18][19]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated. The supply of iron ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the contract price will oscillate under pressure [20]. Double - Coke (Coking Coal and Coke) - On Thursday, double - coke futures oscillated. The supply of coking coal and coke is strong, and the demand is weak. The expectation of a coke price cut is strong. It is expected that the contract price will oscillate weakly [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 01 contract rose 0.03%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 0.62%. Brazil's precipitation conditions are good, while Argentina's precipitation is lower than normal. It is expected that the Dalian Commodity Exchange bean meal will oscillate in the short term [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 01 contract fell 0.80%. Indian refineries cancelled 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders for the December - January shipment period. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate within a range in the short term [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound in the short - term, bearish on rebounds in the medium - and long - term [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Bearish on rebounds [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Short on rallies [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: U.S. data is mixed, gold prices fluctuate at high levels, and long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. Silver has long - term positive factors, but short - term chasing is not recommended [1][2][3] - Copper: The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas short squeezes. After reaching historical highs, long positions should take profits, and copper is still bullish in the medium - and long - term [1][5][6] - Zinc: The overall supply and demand are weak, with inventory reduction in the off - season. It may face pressure again after reaching the 23,000 mark, and a bearish view on rebounds is maintained in the medium - and long - term [1][7][9] - Aluminum: The downstream start - up is okay, and the aluminum price continues to rebound. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [1][10][12] - Nickel: The inventory remains at a high level, and the nickel price rebounds under pressure. The stainless - steel market has entered the off - season [1][14][16] - Lithium carbonate: The total inventory has been declining for 16 weeks, and a long position can be taken after a sufficient correction [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Fed rate - cut expectations are volatile, and the Russia - Ukraine peace process has new developments. Gold fluctuates at high levels and awaits the next Fed meeting [2] - **Basic Logic**: U.S. employment is in a "no - firing, no - hiring" mode, the probability of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike increases, and the Russia - Ukraine war mediation has advanced [2] - **Trading Logic**: Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. For silver, the short - term sentiment may decline after the delivery squeeze eases [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 935 and silver at 12,600. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held, but short - term operations should be cautious [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates at high levels and tests the support at the 90,000 mark [5] - **Industrial Logic**: The global copper concentrate supply is tight, the CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing production capacity, and the LME copper cancelled warrants have increased sharply. The non - U.S. copper inventory is gradually running out [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After reaching historical highs, long positions should take profits and wait for a correction to enter the market. In the medium - and long - term, copper is still bullish. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper at [89,000, 92,000] yuan/ton and LME copper at [11,000, 12,000] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc continues to rebound [7] - **Industrial Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee continues to decline, the consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is reduced in the off - season [7][8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, long positions should gradually take profits. In the medium - and long - term, a bearish view on rebounds is maintained. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc at [22,800, 23,200] yuan/ton and LME zinc at [3,000, 3,100] dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price continues to rebound, and alumina continues its weak trend [10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's year - end rate cut is strengthened. The cost of aluminum enterprises in southwestern China may increase, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is reduced. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [10][12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After taking short - term profits, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of the aluminum ingot social inventory, and the main operating range is [21,500 - 22,500] [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounds under pressure, and the stainless - steel price is under pressure [14][15] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's year - end rate cut is strengthened. Some Indonesian smelters plan to cut production, but the inventory remains at a high level. The stainless - steel market has entered the off - season [14][16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After taking profits at low prices, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the change in the stainless - steel inventory, and the main operating range of nickel is [116,000 - 119,000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opens low and moves low, with the decline narrowing at the end of the session [18][19] - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong. There is no room for a sharp decline in prices, and a long position can be taken after a sufficient correction [18][20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a long position at low prices in the range of [93,000 - 96,000] [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment process, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The bottom - supporting role of Central Huijin provides a certain buffer, and the overall downside risk of the index is controllable. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. Summary by Industry Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The adjustment in the recent market provides an opportunity for the index to rise further next year. Traders can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve long - term investment success [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks warned by the central bank suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After the short - term digestion of positive sentiment, there is a risk of price decline [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production and inventory continue to increase, the fundamental situation remains weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: After the short - term digestion of macro positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Nickel**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Although Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, the impact is limited. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation, and attention should be paid to position changes. In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel market remains in an oversupply pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. Stainless steel futures may fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: After the digestion of macro positive factors, due to the tense situation in Congo and the risk of supply disruptions, tin prices have strengthened. However, there is a risk of short - term pull - back. In the medium - to - long - term, tin is still bullish [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: The market is focused on the possibility of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike in December, and the sentiment in the precious - metals market has become cautious. Gold prices may fluctuate within a range due to the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December [1]. - **Silver**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has risen for six consecutive days, and silver prices have continued to decline with position reduction. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Platinum**: Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [1]. - **Palladium**: Palladium prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is recommended to go short at high prices. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. In December, the production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are expected to increase marginally in the fourth quarter, and large manufacturers have strong price - support intentions [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong. Supply is expected to increase [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: In December, macro drivers are strengthening, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. It is not recommended to chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, macro drivers are strengthening in December, providing rebound momentum. Basis positive - spread positions can be entered after the futures price rises. It is not recommended to chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The immediate demand is acceptable, and there is cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: The short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand situation has support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strengthening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It generally follows the trend of glass, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance to prices [1]. - **Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The impact of floods on palm oil production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is high. In December, domestic arrivals are expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - **Sugar**: Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, and the new domestic crop supply is increasing. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below [1]. - **Soybeans**: China has been purchasing US soybeans, which supports the US soybean market. The weather in Brazil lacks obvious factors for speculation, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: There has been cancellation of old warehouse receipts and registration of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but this has been priced into the market. It is not recommended to short - sell after the sharp decline [1]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has gradually stabilized, demand is supportive, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is still being promoted, and the US has increased sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, it is affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the profit margin is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price support of butadiene is limited, and refinery overhauls may bring positive expectations. However, high inventory is still the main factor suppressing price increases [1]. - **PTA**: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are rumors of domestic refinery overhauls, which are beneficial to PX. Indian PTA import certification restrictions have been lifted, improving the export prospects of domestic PTA manufacturers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has increased, prices have fallen, and cost support has weakened. The expectation of new domestic plant commissioning is suppressing price increases [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. US gasoline demand has weakened, and the price of high - octane components has declined, weakening cost support [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from anti - inversion and cost [1]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, the propylene monomer price is high, providing cost support, and the oil - based cost has decreased [1]. - **PVC**: The market is returning to fundamentals. With fewer future overhauls and new capacity coming online, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants have delayed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating rate is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil - gas market has returned to a situation of fundamental relaxation. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The LPG market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Shipping**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 需求加速回落 关注宏观驱动 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 需求方面：国内需求加速回落，主要原因是终端需求不足，钢厂年度检修增加，需求季节性 回落以及高炉盈利率处于三年同期低位，偏弱现实将限制价格上方高度。据 Mysteel 调研显示本 期新增 12 座高炉检修，6 座高炉复产，高炉检修主要发生在新疆、山西、江苏、四川、湖南、湖 北等地区，主要因为下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检修，检修时长多在 20 天以上，个别高炉检修 时长在 100 天以上:高炉复产发生在河北、东北地区，主要为高炉检修结束之后，下游需求尚可， 按计划复产。 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 库存方面：钢厂端进口库存保持偏低水平，本期小幅回升，高价 ...