Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, attributed to a combination of fundamental and technical factors, indicating a short-term correction after previous overextensions [2] - Fed representative Goolsbee cautioned against hasty rate cuts, suggesting that a sharp slowdown in the job market does not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, with many Midwest businesses still concerned about inflation [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart for gold, suggesting a potential mid-term adjustment may be starting, with short-term pressure observed around the 3750 level [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices saw a minor rebound, but the overall downward trend remains intact, with significant downward pressure expected in the medium term [4] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have shown signs of improvement, which may alleviate some pressure on oil prices, as Trump assured Arab leaders that Israel would not annex the West Bank [4] - The U.S. is experiencing a surge in oil exports, reaching the highest levels since December 2023, positioning itself as a major oil supplier to various countries and regions [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices rose significantly due to positive fundamental influences, with short-term bullish sentiment likely to continue, focusing on support around the 4.67 USD level [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been closing with small gains but may be approaching a peak, with short-term potential for new highs, although the upward space appears limited [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 今日国债期货均震荡下跌。由于短期内政策利率下降的可能性不高，降 息预期消退，支撑国债期货向上的动能较为疲弱。不过中长期来看，目前国 内内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，海外美联储启动降息令人民币汇率端压 力大大减小，未来货币政策偏宽松的可能性较高。总的来说，预计短期内国 债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 国债期货低位震荡 核心观点 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 国债期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Fed's internal divergence increases policy uncertainty, weakening the US dollar's credit. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unrest in Europe boost safe - haven buying. Central bank gold purchases offer long - term support, and the decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for gold prices. Domestic gold prices are relatively stronger than international ones [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the short - term impact of macro factors on copper prices will decrease. Copper shows certain resilience and may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [17]. - **Aluminum**: The core factors for aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest - rate cut, the macro - drive pauses, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading may shift to fundamentals. After a short - term price correction, Shanghai aluminum may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [65]. - **Nickel**: For nickel ore, there are concerns about supply stability. The prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to be strong. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate [80]. - **Tin**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the impact of macro factors on tin prices decreases. In the short - term supply - tight situation, tin prices may mainly fluctuate [95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate and consolidate [107]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Near the National Day holiday, both long and short sides in the technical aspect are closing positions. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and market sentiment is average [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, etc. [4][9][12] - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME copper are provided. The main contract of Shanghai copper is 79,960 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.05% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various copper spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,045 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss is - 108.53 yuan per ton, with a daily change of - 29.82 yuan and a daily change rate of 37.89%. The copper concentrate TC is - 40.65 US dollars per ton [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 308 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.11%. LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.28% [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures (main contract, continuous contracts), LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided. For example, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 20,705 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.1% [40]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum spot prices are given. For example, the price of East China aluminum is 20,680 yuan per ton, with no daily change [52]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts total 67,736 tons, a daily decrease of 1,224 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.77%. LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, a daily increase of 3,300 tons and a daily increase rate of 0.64% [61]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME zinc are provided. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is 21,860 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.07% [66]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,820 yuan per ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.27% [71]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts total 57,357 tons, a daily increase of 744 tons and a daily increase rate of 1.31%. LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,375 tons and a daily decrease rate of 3% [76]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest values,环比 differences, and环比 of Shanghai nickel futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME nickel are provided. The main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,450 yuan per ton, with a环比 increase of 720 yuan and a环比 increase rate of 1% [81]. - **Downstream Situation**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate. The market is in a wait - and - see state before the holiday [80]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME tin are provided. The main contract of Shanghai tin is 271,650 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 1,770 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.66% [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 271,400 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.26% [101]. - **Inventory**: The total tin warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,342 tons, a daily decrease of 76 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.18%. LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, a daily decrease of 5 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.19% [103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are provided. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closes at 72,880 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 780 yuan and a weekly increase of 200 yuan [108]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan per ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 700 yuan [110]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 39,749, with a daily increase of 300 and a daily increase rate of 0.76% [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices are provided. For example, the price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan per ton, with no daily change [117]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are given. The main contract of industrial silicon is 9,020 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.06% [118].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Accumulate" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is supported by pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises and the introduction of stable growth policies, which are expected to boost market confidence and potentially support steel prices if the fundamentals continue to improve [4][5]. - For copper, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is becoming more pronounced, with expectations of a strong copper price if downstream demand continues to improve [4][46]. - Aluminum prices may also be supported by improving downstream demand and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4][52]. - Gold prices are expected to stabilize if the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index shows signs of slowing down, with long-term attention on the Fed's interest rate path [4][59]. - The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is likely to strengthen cobalt prices in the short term [4][20]. - The rare earth market is expected to see price fluctuations due to weak seasonal demand, with attention on international trade policies affecting exports [4][5]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan" targeting an average annual growth of 4% in value added for the steel industry over the next two years [22]. - The plan includes ten specific measures focusing on consumption peak, supply quality improvement, industry transformation, effective consumption expansion, and deepening open cooperation [22]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in steel demand due to construction material consumption, while supply has decreased slightly, leading to a marginal improvement in the market [22][23]. Copper Industry - The copper market is showing signs of recovery in downstream demand, with increased operating rates in domestic copper rod enterprises [45][46]. - The supply side remains stable, and the copper price is expected to be supported if demand continues to improve [46][49]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is benefiting from improved downstream demand and stable production costs, with expectations of price support from the Fed's easing policies [52][53]. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators, with potential price support if inflation data shows signs of slowing [59][60]. Cobalt and Rare Earths - The cobalt market is facing supply constraints due to export restrictions from the DRC, while the rare earth market is experiencing price volatility amid weak demand [4][20].

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80010 | 80225 | -215.00 | -0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 55 | 60 | -5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80030 | 80265 | -235.00 | -0.29% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 70 | 70 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79920 | 80130 | -210.00 | -0.26% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -35 | -35 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1799 | 1872 | -73.62 | -3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

全球最大黄金etf--iSharesSilverTrust持仓报告显示，9月23日黄金etf持有量为1000.57吨，较上一交易日保 持不变。周二(9月23日)截止收盘，现货黄金报3763.89美元/盎司，涨幅0.47%，日内最高上探至3790.79 美元/盎司，最低触3736.59美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 美联储主席鲍威尔近期的讲话，描绘了一幅"具有挑战性的形势"图景：一方面，通胀快于预期的风险依 然存在；另一方面，就业增长的疲软又引发了对劳动力市场健康的担忧。这种在抗通胀与保就业之 间"走钢丝"的艰难平衡，使得鲍威尔未能就下次降息时机给出明确线索。然而，市场对此的解读却相对 乐观。交易员们普遍预期，美联储在10月和12月再次降息的可能性极高。降息预期意味着持有黄金(一 种非生息资产)的机会成本将下降，同时也可能削弱美元汇率，从而提振以美元计价的黄金价格。尽管 内部存在分歧，但市场对宽松周期的预期已然形成，为金价构筑了强劲的底部支撑。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The reference view for TL2512 is to oscillate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillation, oscillation, and weakly oscillating respectively. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term interest rate cut expectation has subsided due to the central bank governor's statement and the unchanged September LPR. However, in the long - run, due to insufficient domestic effective demand and reduced RMB exchange - rate pressure from the Fed's rate cut, the possibility of a loose monetary policy is high, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. In the short - term, with the reduced interest rate cut expectation, treasury bond futures lack upward momentum and are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is the co - existence of long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations and the low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term interest rate cut expectation has faded because the central bank governor said there would be no short - term policy at the National New Conference on Monday and the September LPR remained unchanged. In the long - run, due to insufficient domestic effective demand and reduced RMB exchange - rate pressure from the Fed's rate cut, the future monetary policy is likely to be loose, strongly supporting treasury bond futures. But in the short - term, with the decreased interest rate cut expectation, treasury bond futures lack upward momentum and are expected to oscillate at a low level [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to rise, reaching a historical high due to persistent interest rate cut expectations, frequent cryptocurrency hacking incidents, and risks of a U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 23, COMEX gold futures prices touched a record high of $3824.6 per ounce during intraday trading, closing at $3796.9 per ounce, marking a 0.58% increase [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 43%, achieving the best annual performance in history [1] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), rose by 1.19%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) increased by 1.27% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New Federal Reserve Governor Milan expressed a controversial view that the benchmark interest rate is significantly above a reasonable level and should be aggressively lowered [1] - Milan suggested a potential interest rate cut space of nearly 2 percentage points, although this view has isolated him within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Current interest rate cut expectations are identified as the primary bullish driver for gold [1] - Moderate inflation combined with weak employment conditions clears the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Fed Watch indicating expectations for three rate cuts within the year [1] - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve may enhance Trump's influence, increasing the potential for future rate cuts and raising concerns about the Fed's independence, which could further weaken the dollar's credibility and provide greater elasticity for gold prices [1]

市场震荡，黄金价"过山车"：降息预期与央行措辞的拉锯战 2025年9月20日，黄金市场上演了一场惊心动魄的"过山车"。交易大厅里，买卖双方的心情如同被释放的野猫，既充满期待又焦躁不安。 一边是市场对降息的殷切期盼，另一边则是对美联储措辞的谨慎戒备，这种复杂情绪交织，将整个市场搅得天翻地覆。 当日纽约尾盘，现货黄金价格触及3684.93美元/盎司，劲扬1.12%；期货黄金亦跟随攀升至3719.42美元/盎司，涨幅同样为1.12%。这一波 上涨，让本周黄金累计涨幅逼近1%。表面上看，这似乎是一次漂亮的"失地收复"，然而，深入剖析，却能发现其中暗流涌动，支撑并不 稳固。正如一位在场内进行日内交易的操盘手私下透露："涨幅数据很好看，但筹码并不干净。"他话语中流露出的不安与庆幸，正是市 场真实写照的缩影。 回溯至9月17日，美联储如期宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%—4.25%区间。本应成为黄金的重大利好，因为降低名义 利率通常会压低持有美元的机会成本，从而提振金价。事实也如预期般，黄金盘中一度飙升至3707美元，创下历史新高。然而，好景不 不长，随后的两个交易日，金价出现连续回吐，短线大幅下挫。这是 ...