其实这篇文章应该是周末发的，但我当时想先和Mike把这个内容的播客做了再发，结果周末嗓子哑了没法做播 客，结果就等到了今天。昨天有朋友问我为啥觉得这次和2018年关税有点不一样，以及为什么会觉得中国在结构 性改革上非常迟疑。所以我就一并简单分享一下。 我非常讨厌中国古代儒学里面那种微言大义，然后一天到晚钻牛角尖，我的演讲和文字技巧更多学习的是25～45 岁的毛泽东，1905～1935年的托洛茨基，以及大萧条后的罗斯福，这些演讲和文章，都有一个特点就是能用大家 都看得懂的方法写出先知一样的判断，这是一种我一直追求的境界。 我想先说一下关税的问题。在之前的文章里面，我记得反复说过，我们不能指望欧洲日本或者其他国家用中国一 样的反应去面对美国。然后一群人会把这个现象解读为他们跪了，一群人会把这个现象解读为中国不合群。但其 实这是非常正常的。 欧洲和日本是第一次面对关税的威胁，这对于他们来说是第一次加入这个关税博弈，而中国是不知道多少次加入 这个关税博弈，所以之前中国反击的时候，有很多声音说中国应该躺平，或者认为中国处在囚徒困境里面，这多 少都属于半桶水的水平。因为多次博弈和单次博弈最大的区别在于，多次博弈的人是会带 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Association reported that in Q1 2025, 40 securities firms acted as lead underwriters for 107 bonds, totaling 104.29 billion yuan [1] - Seven departments, including the Ministry of Science and Technology, announced the establishment of a "Technology Board" in the bond market to support high-quality development of technology innovation bonds [3] - The People's Bank of China released social financing data, indicating that the cumulative increase in social financing for the first four months of 2025 was 16.34 trillion yuan, with corporate bond net financing at 759.1 billion yuan [5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 71 billion yuan of 30-year special government bonds at a fixed interest rate of 1.88% [7] - The central bank conducted a 92 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, achieving a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan [8] - The Henan provincial government is actively seeking to pilot "self-examination and self-issuance" for local government special bond projects to address overdue payments [9] Group 3 - The Zhengzhou Investment Group plans to issue 500 million yuan in short-term financing bonds to repay existing debts [11] - The Jiaozuo Investment Group successfully issued 500 million yuan in corporate bonds with an interest rate of 2.93% [12] - The Luoyang Industrial Investment Group is set to issue 1.2 billion yuan in debt financing tools at an interest rate of 2.55% [14] Group 4 - The market outlook for bonds remains positive, with institutions suggesting patience and stable holdings in the upcoming quarter [20] - Factors influencing the bond market include macroeconomic data, funding conditions, and supply pressures, with expectations for continued government bond issuance [21]

01 市场洞察 宏观经济承压，关税博弈影响下股债表现分化 4月，国内宏观经济总体承压，反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得49.0%，在3月份50.5% 的基础上回落1.5%，时隔两个月重回收缩区间。制造业景气水平的回落主要是受到生产指数、 新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比下行所带来的影响。3月份CPI同比降低0.1%， PPI同比下降2.8%。相比于2月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.7%和2.2%而言，CPI降幅收窄主要 是受到食品价格降幅缩小和服务价格由降转升的影响；生产资料价格和生活资料价格的降幅上 升，使得PPI同比降幅扩大。 晨 星 月 报 4月，在美国关税政策的扰动下，包括中国在内的全球多个国家和地区的股市均出现了较大幅 度的调整。随后，国家队和央企出手托底市场，助力A股超跌反弹。中旬以来，虽然一季度超 预期的经济数据和中美关税博弈一度出现缓和使得股市继续企稳，但随着市场开始评估关税博 弈对上市公司盈利水平的负面影响，以及月末公布的PMI数据不及预期，令股市再度承压。从 投资侧来看，主要股指在4月集体收跌，其中上证指数和深证成指分别下跌1.70%和5.75%。代 表大盘股、中盘股和小 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Dynamics - The recent US-China tariff truce has temporarily suppressed demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with gold prices dropping to $3,207 per ounce [3] - The tariff agreement, which includes a 90-day buffer period, alleviates concerns over escalating trade tensions, but uncertainty remains regarding future negotiations, potentially supporting gold prices in the long term [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Costs and Inflation Expectations - Tariff policies indirectly affect gold pricing by increasing cross-border trade costs and causing fluctuations in the premium for refined gold, with the London LBMA spot premium varying between $0.3 to $0.5 per ounce [4] - Recurrent global trade tensions could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, reinforcing gold's anti-inflation properties [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Crisis in the Middle East - Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, have heightened market fears and increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - Ongoing geopolitical events, including US engagements with Houthi forces and delays in Iran nuclear negotiations, have further boosted demand for gold as a "hard currency" [5] Group 4: Restructuring of Safe-Haven Assets - The appeal of US Treasuries and the US dollar as safe-haven assets has diminished, with gold emerging as the dominant safe-haven asset [6] - Gold prices reached historical highs, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, before experiencing a brief pullback to $3,255 per ounce, indicating sensitivity to geopolitical risks [6] Group 5: Market Structure Analysis - The US April CPI rose by 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, yet the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts, leading to conflicting market signals [7] - If inflation continues to decline, expectations for future rate cuts could support upward movement in gold prices [7] Group 6: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,000 and $2,960, while resistance levels are at $3,450 and $3,550 [8] - Current market indicators suggest a bullish trend, with potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are breached [8] Group 7: Market Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected due to the tariff policy buffer period and fluctuating risk appetite, which may lead to technical corrections in gold prices [8] - In the medium to long term, ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising recession risks, along with central bank gold purchases projected at 1,045 tons in 2024, indicate continued upward potential for gold [8] - Strategic recommendations include monitoring the $3,200-$3,300 support range for short-term opportunities and considering additional positions above $3,450 for long-term holders, targeting above $3,550 [8]

随着中美经贸会谈取得超预期的积极成果，避险情绪逐步消退，市场乐观情绪被点燃，国际金价也因此持续震荡。截至2025年5月13日 11:27，国际金价盘中 一度跌破3220美元/盎司关口， 从资金净流入方面来看，黄金ETF基金近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.76亿元净流入，合计"吸金"3.57亿元，日均净流入达8928.63万元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。黄金ETF基金连续4天获杠杆资金净买入，最高单日获得2018.16万元净买入，最新融资余额达37.76亿元。 截至5月12日，黄金ETF基金近5年净值上涨93.71%，居可比基金前2。从收益能力看，截至2025年5月12日，黄金ETF基金自成立以来，最高单月回报为 10.62%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为16.53%，涨跌月数比为72/56，上涨月份平均收益率为3.27%，年盈利百分比为80.00%，历史持有3年盈利 概率为100.00%。 截至2025年5月9日，黄金ETF基金近1年夏普比率为2.92。 回撤方面，截至2025年5月12日，黄金ETF基金今年以来最大回撤8.14%，相对基准回撤0.30%。 ETF方面，黄金ETF基金( ...

Group 1 - India proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff arrangement for specific goods, including steel, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, during trade negotiations with the US, contingent on reciprocity and limited to a certain quantity of imports [1] - The US has concerns regarding India's quality control measures, viewing them as non-tariff trade barriers, while a 10% baseline tariff remains in effect despite the suspension of a 26% "reciprocal tariff" [1] - India's exports of pharmaceuticals to the US have exceeded $10.5 billion, and engineering products reached $19.1 billion, yet the US maintains a trade deficit of $45.7 billion with India [1] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that India could be the fastest country to reach a trade agreement with the US, although skepticism remains regarding the actual progress of negotiations [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Indian imports of chlorpyrifos, concluding that dumping occurred and caused substantial harm to the domestic industry [3] Group 3 - India has significantly increased its chlorpyrifos exports to China, with a 75.79% rise in volume from 2019 to 2023, while the price per ton dropped by 42.07%, leading to a decline in market share for Chinese producers [5] - The market share of Indian chlorpyrifos in China rose from 49% to 71.47% over the same period, causing financial distress for Chinese manufacturers [5] Group 4 - India has shown a tendency to balance its relationships, often leading to conflicts within BRICS, as evidenced by its absence from a recent BRICS foreign ministers' meeting [7] - The announcement of anti-dumping measures by China against India serves as a warning to protect its own interests amid these trade dynamics [7]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 研究助理：孙文婷 邮箱：sunwenting1@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】本轮物价低迷与前两轮有何 不同：特征、原因和应对》2025-05-11 《【粤开宏观】新一轮一揽子金融政策：重 现 924 及增量举措》2025-05-07 《【粤开宏观】"内卷式"竞争：风起何方？ 《【粤开宏观】博弈视角看"关税战"：特 朗普的意图与各经济体的不同反应》 2025-04-27 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的七大信 号》2025-04-25 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】中美互降关税：为何要 降？还有哪些没解决？未来会如何？ 事件 潮归何处？》2025-05-05 5 月 12 日，中国和美国发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，要点包括： 1）美国将本轮对华加征的 125%的"对等关税 ...

Group 1: China Market Focus - The report highlights the importance of policy packages in stabilizing market expectations amid trade tensions, with a focus on stocks like Sungrow Power and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [9][15][22] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the energy storage system (ESS) sector, particularly for Sungrow Power, due to increasing demand for grid upgrades in Europe [23] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is noted for its strong innovation capabilities, with expectations for record revenue and profit in 2024, driven by a significant share of innovative drug sales [23] Group 2: Japan Market Focus - The report indicates that Japan's economic growth is being hampered by trade wars, with a focus on stable high-dividend stocks [30][32] - The anticipated performance of high-dividend stocks such as KDDI and MS&AD Insurance is highlighted, as they are expected to continue to perform well despite economic uncertainties [41] - The report mentions that if Japan cannot secure tariff reductions from the U.S., it may face significant political risks [41] Group 3: Australia Market Focus - The report discusses the Labor Party's significant election victory and its historical correlation with strong performance in the energy and materials sectors [46][50] - Northern Star and Lynas Rare Earths are identified as key stocks that may benefit from increased demand for resources, particularly in the context of global shifts away from reliance on Chinese supply [56] - The report notes that historically, the Australian stock market has seen an average increase of 7.5% in the year following a Labor victory, with energy and materials sectors performing particularly well [56]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "Synchronize with the Market - A" [1] Core Viewpoints - External demand expectations dominate fluctuations, with a focus on improving demand during the peak summer season [1] - The coal production recovery post-holiday has led to increased supply, while electricity coal demand enters a low season, compounded by tariff disputes affecting external demand expectations [8][81] - The recent monetary policy easing is expected to support the macroeconomic environment, with anticipated continued recovery in coal prices due to the upcoming peak summer demand [8][81] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Post-holiday inventory has risen, and port coal prices remain weak. As of May 9, the spot reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 643 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -2.13% [3][23] - **Metallurgical Coal**: Monetary policy easing has led to increased demand entering the traditional peak season. As of May 9, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1320 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -4.35% [4][35] - **Coking Steel Industry Chain**: Downstream operations have improved, stabilizing coking coal prices. As of May 9, the average price for first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1530 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5][55] - **Coal Transportation**: Weak coal prices have led to a decline in transportation demand, with the coastal coal transportation price index at 640.35 points, a weekly change of -8.06% [6][65] - **Coal-related Futures**: Tariff disputes dominate expectations, with futures prices for coking coal and coke showing fluctuations [8][70] 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has rebounded alongside the broader market but has not outperformed major indices. The CITIC Coal Index closed at 3191.92 points, with a five-day change of +0.97% [7][72] 3. Industry News Summary - A comprehensive financial policy has been implemented to stabilize the market, with the People's Bank of China emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery [76][78] - Global thermal coal prices have seen an increase, with a reported rise of 8.8% over eight trading days [78] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in coal production in Shanxi Province, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [79] 4. Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Announcements from companies such as Anyuan Coal Industry and Meijin Energy regarding management changes and stock pledges have been noted [80] 5. Next Week's Views and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with low non-coal business ratios such as Xinjie Energy and Zhongmei Energy [81]

1、市场点评 "政策预期＋风险缓和"短期共振（向好趋势不变） 中美谈判达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，推动风险偏好回暖，市场保持活跃，短期市场震荡回升。 需关注中美12日发布会内容，把握结构性布局窗口机会，放眼中期机遇，杠铃策略占优。 关税博弈：短期超预期，双方同意建立磋商机制，关注发布会内容，中期达成全面协议还需时间。。 国内政策：金融组合拳"稳市场、稳预期"，更多体现"托而不举"思路，财政接力成关键。 基本面：关税影响尚未在经济数据中明显体现，Q2仍面临下行压力。 特朗普关税政策或有反复， 5 月是上市公司分红派息窗口期，红利风格仍处布局良机，中长线资金加速 入市，低利率与资产荒背景下，高股息、优质消费龙头深受机构资金青睐，是底仓配置的较优选； 4月财报担忧已释放，TMT等成长板块成交占比回落低位，自主可控逻辑强化，AI产业在资本支出周期 下持续迭代，科技成长板块仍是中期主线。* 2、国内财经要闻 【5月7日】"一行一会一局"（政策加码发力） 5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李 云泽、中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预 ...