"黑色系列"专家电话会 20250710 摘要 新疆煤炭储量占全国 40%，产量仅占 11%，主要产区为准东、吐哈、 南疆及印尼地区，其中准东和哈密产量占比超 80%。内销占比约 70%，外运约 28%，未来本地消纳能力将提升。 新疆煤炭外运主要流向甘肃、宁夏、青海、西南等地，占比超 90%。新 铁路建设将显著增加港口方向运输能力，预计三年左右完成建设，北通 道将成为货运主通道。 部分新疆矿井出现亏损，每吨亏损 10-30 元不等，导致部分矿井相对保 守，没有大规模生产。预计下半年市场可能反弹，政策或将提减产和去 产能。 2025 年上半年动力煤市场供大于求，全国 1-5 月新增产量 1.1 亿吨， 消费端仅增加 1,200 万吨，导致价格下跌。下半年高温天气预期将推动 火电需求增长，但发电企业对供应端过度乐观可能导致误判。 鄂尔多斯地区煤矿减产主要受价格因素影响，山西省煤炭产量开始放缓， 安全生产形势严峻，安监会加大监管力度。晋陕蒙新核心地区降雨增多， 对煤炭生产运输和供应产生显著影响。 近年来，新疆煤炭市场发展迅速，产量从 2016 年的 1.67 亿吨增长到 2025 年 的预计 5.7 亿吨。自治区领 ...

今年邮政快递行业的反内卷压力如何？行业业务量和单价变化情况如何？ 今年（2025 年）邮政快递行业的反内卷压力有所存在，但并不特别大。根据 前六个月的数据测算，今年（2025 年）行业业务量增幅约为 17.2%，而行业 单价降幅约为 7%。这意味着价格竞争较为激烈，内卷现象较严重。然而，考 虑到无人化技术的发展，今年（2025 年）的行业竞争并没有那么激烈，相比 2020 年和 2021 年有所缓解。 国家层面在反内卷方面采取了哪些措施？ 快递：本次反内卷有何不同？20250710 摘要 2025 年快递行业价格竞争有所缓解，但仍面临单价下降压力，上半年 降幅约 7%，预计下半年收窄至 6%，需关注义乌、潮汕等地价格波动。 国家层面积极反内卷，工信部试点号码保护，国务院推动稳就业，中央 财经委强调高质量发展，旨在提升服务质量和行业整体水平。 快递企业应通过数字化管理优化派费，加强监管力度，稳定基层，并借 鉴历史经验，如 2021 年国家邮政局约谈涨价措施，但需避免价格大幅 波动。 快递行业反内卷核心在于打破电商平台数据垄断，通过数据流通提升服 务质量，并借助政策引导，如号码保护服务，将数据赋能快递公司。 快递 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-11 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3123 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨（1.958%）。当日注册仓单 54625 吨, 环比增加 9720 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.0035 万手，环比增加 55094 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比增加 30 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3262 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 72 元/吨（2.257%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.7104 万手，环比 ...

首席点评： 黑色板块继续上涨 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文，再度敦促美联储主席鲍威尔降息。此前一天，特朗普批评美联储当 前的利率政策，称美联储设定的利率至少偏高 3 个百分点，利率每个百分点每年给美国造成了 3600 亿 美元的再融资成本。消息称特朗普正考虑在美联储主席鲍威尔明年离任前为美联储任命一位 " 影子主席 " ，以向美联储施压，迫使其降息。中证报头版刊文称，今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务 的置换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时，多地在财政预算调整方案中安排专项债用 于偿还拖欠企业账款。国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数上涨，黑色系普遍上涨，焦煤涨 2.60% ，铁矿石涨 1.87% ；化工品中橡胶涨 1.19% ；油脂油料中豆粕涨 0.99% ，豆二涨 0.81% 。能源品普遍下跌，燃油 下跌 1.49% ，低硫燃料油下跌 0.57% 。 重点品种： 原油、焦煤、玻璃 7 月 10 日，中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟公布数据显示， 6 月，我国动力电池装车量 58.2GWh ，环 比增长 1.9% ，同比增长 35.9% 。其中三元电池装车量 10.7GWh ，占总装车量 18. ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/11 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 2025/07/10 15 306 84589 21729 -302.05 513.15 45.0 62.0 -0.95 108100 40950 变化 -45 -196 0 3 ...

中信证券发布研报称，推动产业链价格回升是实现光伏行业"反内卷"的有效措施和重要的第一步，随着 行业回归规范化有序竞争，以及潜在供给侧改革政策逐步完善和落地，光伏基本面底有望得以夯实，落 后产能出清长效机制逐步规范和形成。产业链报价回升立竿见影，但要实现落后产能退出、光伏供给侧 重构并非朝夕之功，建议重点关注在光伏主产业链去产能进展中，具备长期竞争力和量价回升弹性的龙 头公司。 以最具代表性的硅料为例，由于各厂商资源禀赋、技术工艺和成本管控等方面的差异，后续各厂价格或 趋于分化，成本越低的厂商越有利于占据市场优势，而成本越高的企业或将直接面临库存积压、资金收 紧和停产退出的压力，从而实现落后产能有序退出，重构供给格局。因此，涨价可达到良好的"反内 卷"效果，但由于当前涨价主要驱动力为行政手段+企业主动纠错，而非需求驱动，短期进一步上涨空 间或有限，且价高者反而将面临更大库存和销售压力。综合成本价或将成为现阶段新的价格锚，产能开 工率也有望在边际需求对应产能的成本线寻找到新的均衡点。 中信证券主要观点如下： 产业链价格合理回升是光伏"反内卷"的有效手段和供给侧改革的首要前提。 本轮光伏"反内卷"的本质是治理企业低 ...

资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 中国商业经济学会副会长宋向清认为，一是宏观背景不同。"反内卷"面临更为复杂的国内外形势。二是 行业范围不同。供给侧结构性改革围绕煤炭、钢铁等传统上游国有企业展开，而"反内卷"不仅涵盖传统 行业，还包括光伏、新能源车等中下游民营企业主导的新兴行业。三是目标定位不同。供给侧结构性改 革侧重于传统行业去产能，以带动经济结构转型升级，而"反内卷"更注重全方位提升国内核心竞争力， 引导企业从"数量竞争"迈向"质量提升"，强调绿色低碳转型，推动产业升级。四是政策举措不同。供给 侧结构性改革多采用行政命令手段，如强制关停、指标置换等，而"反内卷"依托全国统一大市场建设， 更注重法制化、多样化，采取公平竞争、审查等法制化手段，以及行业协会自律公约、强化行业标准引 领等方式。五是持续时间不同。供给侧结构性改革的实施集中在2016年至2017年，持续时间相对较短， 而"反内卷"目标是全方位提升产业竞争力，涉及长期制度性建设，预计持续时间更长。 新湖期货研究所副所长李明玉认为，2015年供给侧结构性改革 ...

近日，中国钢铁工业协会发布《维护产业链整体利益共同抵制"内卷式"竞争》。文章提到，综合整 治"内卷式"竞争是一项系统工程，牵一发而动全身，单靠某一行业难以摆脱"内卷"困局。钢铁与汽车行 业需立足自身实际，凝聚共识、形成合力。无论是钢铁企业还是汽车企业，都应认识到行业利益高于企 业利益、企业利益源于行业利益，加快从"量本位"向"价本位"转型，强化产业链上下游协同治理。 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 新湖期货研究所副所长李明玉表示，当前黑色产业链利润分配失衡问题突出，钢厂利润过度依赖煤炭等 原材料的低价让利，但煤炭企业在经历连续3年价格下跌后，部分已陷入亏损，进一步让利空间有限。 同时，中游贸易商"蓄水池"功能缺失，加剧了价格的短期波动，不利于行业长期稳定发展。破解"内 卷"需要聚焦需求结构优化与利润分配机制重构，以此推动产业向高质量发展转型。 国投期货高级分析师何建辉表示，近年来黑色产业链在产能调控、产量压减、落后产能退出等方面已取 得阶段性成效，但由于终端需求复苏波折，市场供需仍不匹配。"若仅依赖市场化手段，黑 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].

其 他 报 告 2025年07月11日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3510 | 0.48 | 1.40 | | 深证成份指数 | 10631 | 0.47 | 1.25 | | 沪深300指数 | 4010 | 0.47 | 1.54 | | 创业板指数 | 2190 | 0.22 | 1.50 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | -0.02 | 0.16 | | 上证基金指数 | 6949 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24028 | 0.57 | -1.52 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8668 | 0.83 | -1.75 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22693 | 0.74 | -0.14 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44458 | 0.49 | 2.30 | | ...