1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is in a situation of oversupply, with supply pressure expected to increase after the holiday due to continued high - level group sales and ineffective inventory reduction [2] - The egg market will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand as the double - festival boost is over and all - level inventories are abundant [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 12,295 yuan/ton, a change of - 280.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decline of 2.23% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.55 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.84 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On September 29, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.80, down 0.05 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.32 yuan/kg, up 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - This week, the spot price has been declining. Due to the approaching holiday, group farms are rushing to meet the slaughtering schedule, increasing supply. Consumption has increased slightly, but the market is still in an oversupply situation, and inventory has not been effectively reduced [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract yesterday was 3016 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 20.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.66% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.33 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.11 yuan/jin [3] - Inventory: On September 29, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.03 days, up 0.03 days from the previous day, an increase of 3.00%. The circulation - link inventory remained unchanged [3] Market Analysis - The double - festival stocking is basically over, and the festival boost effect is poor. The arrival volume in sales areas has decreased significantly, the goods movement in all links is slow, and terminal demand is weak. The market will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal market is currently in a weak and volatile state. In the short - term, there may be a downward trend due to large domestic supply pressure and no clear positive factors in the cost side. In the medium - term, the overall global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. [2][3][4] - The oil market is in a state of current supply - demand balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is expected to be in a medium - term volatile and upward trend, and the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization. [6][8] - The sugar market is generally bearish in the long - term, but in the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see due to technical factors. [9][10] - The cotton market is influenced by both bearish factors such as weak downstream demand and bullish factors like low domestic inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [13][14] - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [16][17] - For pigs, the short - term trend is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, US soybeans fluctuated with low valuation and few positive factors. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the price in East China at 2,900 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1892 million tons, and the port soybean inventory increased to 9.385 million tons, expected to peak but remain at a high level. This week, the expected crushing volume is 1.76 million tons. [2] - Argentina has temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal after achieving its export target, which still has a large impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazil's soybean planting progress is relatively fast, reaching 3.2% as of last Thursday, and the premium is temporarily stable. [3] Strategy View - The domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's export tax has driven the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. Currently, the soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. [4] Oil Market Information - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but then increased month - on - month in the subsequent periods. The palm oil production decreased month - on - month in the same period. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months and reach about 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year. [6] - On Monday, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. The recent decline in oils is due to weak palm oil exports from Malaysia and short - term price cuts in Argentina. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. [6] Strategy View - Factors such as low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decrease in exportable volume of palm oil in Southeast Asia support the oil price center. The oil market is in a state of current balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is recommended to buy on dips and stabilization in the medium - term. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spot price of sugar in some regions decreased or remained stable. [9] - Consultancy firm StoneX predicts that the sugar cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.4 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons year - on - year, and that in India is expected to be 32.3 million tons, an increase of 6.2 million tons year - on - year. [9] Strategy View - Affected by factors such as the record - high sugar imports in China in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the sugar price is generally bearish. However, from a technical perspective, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day. [9][10] Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,350 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also decreased. [12] - As of September 26, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills were lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year. [13] Strategy View - Although it is the peak consumption season, the downstream operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, leading to a downward trend in cotton prices. However, the domestic cotton inventory is at a historical low, which may provide support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas decreased to 3.45 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average. It is expected that the egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in most areas today. [16] Strategy View - The spot price is expected to decline further. The near - month contracts of the futures market are weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. The supply side may improve marginally, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 12.58 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan decreased by 0.28 yuan to 11.79 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce prices weakened, and the pig supply may be stable or decrease. The demand is at a high level and shows no sign of further increase. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively balanced today, and the price will stop falling and stabilize. [19] Strategy View - The short - term trend of the pig market is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [20]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on September 29, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.12% to 16.40 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 1.51% to 65.40 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures rose by 0.62% to $6,951.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures fell by 1.72% to 371.55 cents per pound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may fall to seek support at 4,300 ringgit, and domestic palm oil futures may follow suit and fall to the range of 8,800 - 9,000 yuan. Overall, it maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have not changed significantly. There is a seasonal supply pressure in the US, and domestic demand is weak after the holiday. Short - term supply exceeds demand [1]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is recovering, and the demand for large - weight pigs is increasing. The spot price is chaotic with some areas seeing larger declines. In the medium term, demand recovers slowly while supply recovers clearly, and the market may fluctuate slightly following the spot [3]. Corn - New - season corn in the Northeast is increasing in volume, and prices are weak. In North China, prices are under pressure. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5]. Meal - US soybeans lack substantial positive factors. China's domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the basis is supported before the holiday. The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken in the short term [8]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. The new domestic sugar season has started, and the domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. Cotton - The supply side has hedging pressure after new cotton acquisition, and the demand side has low confidence in the peak season. Domestic cotton prices may be under pressure in the short and medium term [11]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is high, and egg supply is sufficient. Demand may increase during the holidays, and egg prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 26, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,470 yuan, up 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,162 yuan, down 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 24.19%. For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,230 yuan, up 0.65%, and the futures price of P2601 was 9,236 yuan, up 0.15%. The basis of P2601 increased by 88.46%. For rapeseed oil, the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,240 yuan, up 1.99%, and the futures price of OI601 was 10,162 yuan, up 0.20%. The basis of OI601 increased by 176.47% [1]. - **Spreads**: From September 26 to 28, the soybean oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9.92%, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 4.17%, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 7.44%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 4.11%, and the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread remained unchanged, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 2.56% [1]. Pork - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day; the price of the 2601 contract was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The basis of the main contract increased by 66.67% [3]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 7.37%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit per head decreased by 203.23%, and the externally - purchased breeding profit decreased by 18.69% [3]. Corn - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the corn 2511 contract was 2,178 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,280 yuan, down 1.30%. The basis decreased by 29.66%, and the 11 - 3 spread increased by 22.73% [5]. - **Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2,480 yuan, up 0.24%. The basis decreased by 6.98%, and the 11 - 3 spread increased by 23.08%. The starch - corn spread decreased by 2.27%, and the Shandong starch profit increased by 60.98% [5]. Meal - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan, and the futures price of M2601 also remained unchanged. The basis remained unchanged, and the spot basis quote remained the same. The Brazilian November - shipment - date crushing profit decreased by 70% [8]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged, the spot oil - meal ratio remained unchanged, and the main - contract oil - meal ratio remained unchanged. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: On September 29, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day; the price of the 2605 contract was 5,442 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.37% [10]. - **Spot and Import**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis increased by 3.68%, and the Kunming basis increased by 3.37%. The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian sugar increased, and the corresponding spreads with Nanning prices also changed [10]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 12.87%, the national industrial inventory increased by 5.24%, and the sugar import volume increased by 160% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: On September 29, the price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day; the price of the 2601 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 66.33 cents/pound, up 0.09% [11]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.28%. The 3128B - 01 and 3128B - 05 spreads increased, and the CC Index: 3128B - FC Index:M: 1% spread decreased by 3.32% [11]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory decreased by 20.6%, the industrial inventory decreased by 3.4%, the import volume increased by 40%, the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year, and the yarn and fabric inventory days decreased [11]. Eggs - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,036 yuan/500KG, down 1.30% from the previous day; the price of the 10 - contract was 2,940 yuan/500KG, down 1.38%. The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 3.76% [14]. - **Indicators**: The egg - chicken chick price remained unchanged, the culled - chicken price decreased by 0.64%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95%, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% [14] [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to high domestic supply pressure, sufficient ship purchases, high soybean inventory, and no clear positive factors in cost, combined with Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax, it may trigger a short - term decline. In the medium - term, with global soybean supply being loose, the general direction is to sell on rebounds, but the market will mainly fluctuate in a range because of low US soybean valuation and uncertainties in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production increase potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in Indonesia's export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption. Currently, the market is in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand in reality but expected to be tight in the future. In the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high current valuation, the strategy is to buy after a stable decline [8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by record - high domestic imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall sugar price trend is bearish. Technically, short - term factors are not conducive to further decline, so it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [11]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the downstream industry's startup rate is growing weakly, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the new year, causing the cotton price to decline. However, the current low domestic cotton inventory and price may provide support. With both bullish and bearish factors, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - term futures market is weak, while the far - term market is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. The supply side has potential for marginal improvement, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term contracts after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The group farms' seasonal supply recovery exceeds expectations, and weak demand slows down the slaughter progress. Coupled with panic selling by retail farmers, the spot price may decline faster. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - term contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks and using selling options to deal with potential volatility decline [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Friday, US soybeans fluctuated. Argentina's price - cut sales ended, and the market focused on new - crop production. Last week, domestic soybean meal trading was average, with good pick - up at first but a significant decline at the end of the week. Last week, 2.27 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 1.76 million tons are expected to be crushed. Argentina has cancelled the export tax after achieving its export target, but it still has a great impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazilian premiums are temporarily stable. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by low US soybean valuation, Sino - US trade relations, and the Brazilian planting season, but also faces pressure from global protein raw material oversupply and potential short - term oversupply if Sino - US relations ease [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, it may decline; in the medium - term, it will mainly fluctuate in a range [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but increased by 2.6% in the first 15 days, 8.7% in the first 20 days, and 11.3% - 12.9% in the first 25 days. Its production decreased by 3.17% in the first 10 days, 8.05% in the first 15 days, 7.89% in the first 20 days, and 4.14% in the first 25 days compared to the same period last month. In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased from 3.606 million tons in June to 3.537 million tons, production increased from 5.289 million tons to 5.606 million tons, inventory increased from 2.53 million tons to 2.568 million tons, and domestic consumption decreased from 2.072 million tons to 2.034 million tons. Analysts predict that global palm oil and soybean oil prices will rise from January to June 2026 due to tight supply and potential increased biodiesel consumption in the US, Brazil, and Indonesia [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term, and the strategy is to buy after a stable decline [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose first and then fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained stable. StoneX predicted that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, and sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase. As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 85 to 76, and the sugar volume waiting to be loaded decreased from 3.2827 million tons to 3.1039 million tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall trend is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day. The spot price also decreased slightly. As of the week of September 26, the spinning mill's startup rate was 66.6%, down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year and 10.44 percentage points from the five - year average; the weaving mill's startup rate was 37.8%, down 15.8 percentage points from the same period last year and 16.66 percentage points from the five - year average. Cotton commercial inventory was 1.03 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from the same period last year and 0.35 million tons from the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 0.9465 million tons, down 0.19 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative export contract volume to China was 0.0168 million tons, down 0.0907 million tons year - on - year and 0.3728 million tons from the five - year average [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With both bullish and bearish factors, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with slight declines in some areas. The market supply is sufficient due to high inventory of laying hens and cold - stored eggs. With the approaching festival, risk - control sentiment increases, but pre - festival small - batch stocking provides some support, so the price is expected to stabilize after a slight decline [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term contracts after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly, mainly declining with slight increases in some areas. Some farmers were waiting and seeing, while others sold at a reduced price due to sales pressure, and a few farmers tried to support the price. It is expected that today's pig prices will be stable or increase [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short the near - term contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks and using selling options to deal with potential volatility decline [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: ★★★ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil; ★★☆ for soybean and soybean meal; ★☆☆ for corn and live pigs; ☆☆☆ for eggs [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: None Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides investment suggestions based on the analysis [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean futures price continued to rebound with decreasing positions, outperforming imported soybeans, and the price difference widened. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed, with weak quotes. Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated greatly this week, and China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may tighten in Q1 next year, but the supply gap risk will ease. Focus on the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures continued to decline by 0.81% today. After Argentina's export policy was introduced on Monday, the futures price dropped significantly. As of Wednesday, the sales volume of related products reached the $7 billion limit, and Argentina cancelled the soybean tax exemption policy. During this period, China imported more than 2.2 million tons of Argentine soybeans. The soybean meal market is greatly affected by foreign policies, so continue to wait and see. In the long term, maintain a cautious bullish view on Dalian soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated greatly this week, and China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may tighten in Q1 next year, but the supply gap risk will ease. The EU decided to postpone the implementation of the anti - deforestation regulations for one year, and the medium - to - long - term demand expectation for palm oil improved. Palm oil is in the production reduction cycle in Q4. The medium - term soybean and palm oil prices are expected to move within a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered to hedge against unexpected risks [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintained the pattern of strong oil and weak meal. The demand for rapeseed meal was mediocre, affected by the seasonal decline in aquaculture feed demand and the low unit protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The oil - to - meal ratio of rapeseed products is expected to continue to rebound, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slow decline. The domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a very low level, and coastal oil mills may shut down on a large scale after the National Day. The rapeseed futures will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures opened low and closed high, rising 0.55% today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn yield. As the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China increases, the opening price has been falling. Around the National Day, the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures increased positions by nearly 10,000 lots, and all contracts continued to decline to new lows. The spot price continued to weaken, reaching a new low this year, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and slaughter was high. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. Pay attention to when secondary fattening will enter the market again and the government's willingness to support the pig price. In the long term, if the reduction of fertile sows starts in September, it is expected to improve the pig price expectation in the second half of next year. Currently, the live pig futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is low, and the futures price is weak. The funds continued to reduce positions by nearly 50,000 lots. The spot price rebound since the peak season in September reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry's high - inventory problem requires deep capacity reduction. Consider taking long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's H1 and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Corn**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to tighten in Q1 next year, but the risk of supply chain gaps will ease, and the supply in Q2 will depend on the Brazilian new crop [2][4] - The soybean meal market is greatly affected by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism about the Dalian soybean meal [3] - Soybean and palm oil are expected to operate in a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered [4] - Rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6] - Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] - The current live pig futures price is bearish, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction and policy support [8] - For egg futures, consider long positions in far - month contracts and pay attention to short - position funds in near - month contracts [9] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans show a stronger price than imported soybeans, and the price difference is expanding. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed with weak quotes. China has accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply may tighten in Q1 next year, and the Brazilian new crop in Q2 is crucial [2] Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal fell 0.81% today. After Argentina's export policy was introduced, it fell sharply. About 2.2 million tons of Argentine soybeans were imported during the period. The market is disturbed by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated this week. China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The supply of domestic beans may tighten in Q1 next year. The EU postponed the anti - deforestation regulations, and palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in Q4. Consider a protective call strategy [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintains an oil - strong and meal - weak pattern. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound. Rapeseed inventory is extremely low, and coastal oil mills may shut down after the National Day. Rapeseed futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - Dalian corn rose 0.55% today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn output. With the increase in the listing of new corn, the opening price has been falling. It may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures fell to a new low, and the spot price also weakened. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year. Consider the re - entry of secondary fattening and government support. The current futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are low, and the futures price is weak. The post - holiday demand will be weak. There is a need for deep capacity reduction. Consider long positions in far - month contracts [9]

| 品种 | | | | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | | | | | | | | 周四，玉米震荡收十字星，近月合约企稳反弹。11 | | | | | 月合约跌至 2150 整数支撑， 期价企稳反弹，与近月下跌相比，远期 1 月合约仍延续弱势表现。近期黑龙江、 | | | 内蒙古深加工收购价格持续下滑，新季玉米供应较为充足，深加工门前排队车辆 | | | | | | | | 较多，市场对于新季市场的预期较为一般。华北蒜茬玉米与夏玉米已大量涌入市 | | | | | | | | 场，虽前期阴雨天气延缓收割晾晒，但新粮整体上市量较去年同期显著增加。贸 | | | | | | | | 震荡下行 | | | | | 易商受市场看空情绪影响，囤粮意愿低迷，多采取 "随收随走" 策略，进一步 | | | 加剧市场供应压力。销区玉米价格整体以稳为主，部分港口现货供应偏紧，报价 | | | | | | | | 窄幅上调，加之受台风天气影响，到港速度放缓，支撑现货价格。下游提货节奏 | | | | | | | | 放缓，节前补库现象 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 供应压力持续释放，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约12685元/吨，较前交易日变动-45.00元/吨，幅度-0.35%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.63元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.16元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-55，较前交易日变动-115；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 12.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH11+195，较前交易日变动+35；四川地 区外三元生猪价格12.29元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH11-395，较前交易日变动+45。 据农业农村部监测，9月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.78，与昨天持平，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数为119.70， 与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.44元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；牛肉66.31元/公斤，比昨天上 升0.2%；羊肉61.87元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；鸡蛋8.48元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.61元/公斤，比昨天 下降1.9%。 市场分析 综合来看，上周现货价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about report industry investment ratings in the provided documents. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to face resistance at 4,450 ringgit and may fall back to 4,200 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit and test 9,000 yuan. Argentine soybean oil exports will be taxed again, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient, so the basis of soybean oil is difficult to rise continuously [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation due to oversupply. Zhengzhou sugar futures have broken through 5,500 yuan, but there is short - term rebound momentum while maintaining a bearish trend overall [2]. Cotton - The mid - term domestic cotton price may be under pressure due to weak seed cotton purchasing willingness and high hedging pressure on the supply side, as well as weak downstream demand [3]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation due to sufficient supply and potential demand increase during festivals [4]. Corn - The corn market will be under pressure in the short term. The price will likely decline with new grain listing, and the market will focus on the new grain acquisition rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. Meal and Oilseeds - Argentine soybean exports have restarted the export tax, and US soybeans lack substantial positive factors. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken [8]. Pigs - The pig market is expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment, following the spot price with small fluctuations. Market supply is recovering, and demand is slowly picking up [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On September 25, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil rose by 0.96%, and the futures price of Y2601 rose by 1.14%. The basis of palm oil in Guangdong changed significantly, and the import profit decreased. The price of rapeseed oil also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and the soybean - palm oil spread and rapeseed - soybean oil spread also fluctuated [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.06%. The positions of the main contract and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming increased slightly. The basis increased, and the import price of Brazilian sugar also changed slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also changed [2]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased slightly, and the 5 - 1 spread changed significantly. The positions of the main contract and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly, while the FC Index of M: 1% decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories of cotton decreased, and the import volume increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, and the cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased [3]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 11 and 10 contracts increased, and the 11 - 10 spread changed [4]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased slightly, and the prices of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, while the price of culled chickens increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The feed - to - egg ratio increased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 increased slightly, and the basis and 11 - 3 spread changed. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased significantly [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased slightly, and the basis and 11 - 3 spread changed [5]. Meal and Oilseeds - **Price Changes**: The spot and futures prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all had corresponding increases, and the basis and import crushing margins also changed [8]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the oil - meal ratio and soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed [8]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The prices of live hog 2511 and 2601 decreased slightly, and the 11 - 1 spread decreased [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of hogs in different regions changed, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators also had corresponding changes [10].