1. Report Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural products industry, dated December 19, 2025 [1] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers include Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, and Youran Liu, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3][4] 3. Fats and Oils 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the three major fats and oils fell significantly, with rapeseed oil having the largest decline. The 2025/26 global rapeseed supply - demand situation is characterized by record - high production, shrinking trade, and rising inventories. USDA raised the 2025/26 global rapeseed production by 3 million tons to 95.27 million tons, an 11% increase from the previous year. Due to China's policies, Canadian rapeseed exports have plummeted, and domestic rapeseed oil has a strong basis in the long - term but a bearish fundamental outlook [8]. - Palm oil production in the producing areas has been good this year. In the first quarter of 2026, production will slow down, and it faces de - stocking pressure. High - frequency data shows a 15.9% - 16.4% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first half of December. Higher - than - expected palm oil inventories will suppress prices [9]. - Soybean oil futures are also falling, mainly depending on the cost of imported soybeans. With rising US inventories and expected high yields in Brazil, CBOT soybean prices will be under pressure. The current high volume of imported soybeans in China restricts the upside space of soybean oil [9]. - The fats and oils market is expected to continue to bottom out. Wait for the bottom pattern to appear before deploying long positions, and be cautious about the rebound amplitude [10]. 3.2 Core Points 3.2.1 Domestic Spot Changes - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Grade 1 soybean oil in East China was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 60 yuan; Grade 3 rapeseed oil in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 100 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan weekly, and the basis remained unchanged [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Inventories of the Three Major Fats and Oils - As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.3113 million tons, a weekly decrease of 118,100 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.45% year - on - year increase. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3432 million tons, down 58,400 tons weekly; edible palm oil inventory was 584,200 tons, down 38,000 tons weekly; rapeseed oil inventory was 383,900 tons, down 21,700 tons weekly [19]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply of Fats, Oils, and Oilseeds - As of the end of the 50th week, the soybean crushing rate of major domestic soybean oil mills increased slightly from last week, with an average crushing rate of 58.32%. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 2.155 million tons. As of the end of December, the cumulative soybean crushing volume was 3.995 million tons [21]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.3852 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 9.484 million tons [22][23]. - As of the end of the 50th week, the crushing rate of imported rapeseed in major domestic oil mills was almost at a standstill. As of the end of December, the cumulative rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at domestic ports is about 60,000 tons [28]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Dynamics - From December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. In November, China's palm oil imports reached 330,000 tons, the highest this year. In January, Malaysia's crude palm oil export tax is set at 9.5%. In December, Indonesia's crude palm oil reference price is expected to be $926.14 per ton, and the export tax is reduced to $74 per ton [30][31]. 3.2.5 CFTC Positions - In the first week of December, speculative funds increased their net long positions in Chicago soybeans and reduced their net short positions in Chicago soybean oil [47] 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - In the spot market, corn prices decreased slightly this week. In the futures market, as of December 18, the Dalian main contract 2603 closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.06% decline [49]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis 4.2.1 Corn Supply - This week, the pace of grain sales slowed down. As of now, the grain sales progress is 40%, generally faster than the same period last year. As of December 12, the inventory at northern ports was 1.81 million tons, and at southern ports was 453,000 tons [51][52]. 4.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - This week, wheat prices adjusted weakly. The cost is supported in the short term, but the demand is weak. As of December 18, the national average corn price was 2,304 yuan/ton, and the wheat average price was 2,514 yuan/ton [54]. 4.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - In November, China imported 10.93 million tons of grain, a 15.3% year - on - year increase. The import of corn, sorghum, and wheat rebounded. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may increase [55][65]. 4.2.4 Feed Demand - In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of December 18, the average inventory days of national sample feed enterprises was 29.98 days [66][72]. 4.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - This week, the operating rate of the corn starch industry fluctuated little. As of December 18, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.24 million tons, a 10.20% increase from last week [74][75]. 4.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 forecast for Chinese corn remains the same as last month. The planting area is expected to be 44,873 thousand hectares, with a total output of 300 million tons. The consumption is expected to be 299.02 million tons, and the import volume remains at 6 million tons [81] 4.3 Outlook - In the spot market, prices may fluctuate. In the futures market, the 2601/03 contracts are under supply pressure, and prices may fluctuate. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [83][84][85] 5. Live Pigs 5.1 Market Review - In the spot market, live pig prices fluctuated upward this week, with an average price of 11.53 yuan/kg, a 2.31% week - on - week increase. In the futures market, as of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,325 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase from last Thursday [87][88] 5.2 Fundamental Overview 5.2.1 Long - term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory - As of November, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms increased slightly month - on - month. Overall, live pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [98][99] 5.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - This week, the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. As of November, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises decreased slightly month - on - month [108][109] 5.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pigs Inventory, Hogging, and Reraising - As of November, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in November. In December, live pig slaughter is expected to increase month - on - month, and decrease in January next year [112][113] 5.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Slaughter Weight - In November, the actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads. This week, the average slaughter weight was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg week - on - week [118][119] 5.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Imports - In October, China imported 60,000 tons of pork. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 920,000 tons, a 6.1% year - on - year decrease [124] 5.2.6 Reraising Demand - In early December, the enthusiasm for reraising was average. The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs increased slightly this week, and the reraising cost also increased [127] 5.2.7 Slaughter Demand - This week, the slaughter enterprise operating rate was 39.87%, up 1.33 percentage points from last week. From January to October 2025, the total slaughter volume was 322.88 million heads, a 22.21% year - on - year increase [130] 5.3 Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are oscillating strongly. In the futures market, it is recommended that investors wait and see, and breeding enterprises reduce hedging short positions as they slaughter [131][133] 6. Soybean Meal 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - In the spot market, as of December 19, the coastal soybean meal price was between 3,060 - 3,140 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the outer - market CBOT soybean price may test the support at 1050 cents. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the outer - market in the short term, and it is not advisable for long - position investors to bottom - fish [135][136][137] 6.2 Core Points 6.2.1 Soybean Planting - According to the USDA December report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, and the yield per unit is 53.0 bushels. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's is expected to be 48.5 million tons. As of December 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 94.1%, and as of December 11, Argentina's was 58% [138][139] 6.2.2 US Soybean Exports - As of the week of November 27, the US 2025/2026 soybean export shipment volume was about 804,000 tons, and the net sales volume was 1.106 million tons. The cumulative sales volume was 21.829 million tons, a 39.4% year - on - year decrease [145] 6.2.3 Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing - As of December 18, the gross profit of importing and crushing US Gulf soybeans in January was - 465 yuan/ton. As of the week of December 12, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 57.18%. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans. It is expected that the port soybean inventory will gradually decrease [154][155][157] 6.2.4 Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory - As of December 12, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 999,900 tons, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease and a 76% year - on - year increase [161] 6.2.5 Basis and Inter - month Spread - As of December 19, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract was about 94.14, and the 1 - 5 spread was 308. The 1 - 5 spread or the 3 - 5 spread may be stable and slightly stronger in the future [166] 6.2.6 Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of December 18, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 23,830 lots, at a historically high level for the same period [170] 7. Eggs 7.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the egg spot price stabilized at a low level and then rose slightly. In the futures market, the near - month contracts oscillated at a low level, and the far - month contracts declined. It is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to adjust fully before entering the market [172] 7.2 Data Summary 7.2.1 Inventory and Replenishment - As of the end of November 2025, the national in - production laying hens inventory was about 1.352 billion. In November, the sample enterprises' egg - chicken chick output was about 39.55 million, a 13.5% decrease from the same period last year [173] 7.2.2 Cost, Revenue, and Breeding Profit - As of December 18, the average price of large - sized pink - shell eggs was 2.98 yuan/jin, and the brown - shell eggs were 3.04 yuan/jin. The feed cost was 3.22 yuan/kg, the chick price was 2.68 yuan/chick, and the breeding profit was about - 0.17 yuan/jin [178][179] 7.2.3 Culled Hens - Recently, the culling volume has decreased, the culling age has accelerated, and the culled hen price is at a low level for the same period [181] 7.2.4 Demand, Inventory, and Live Pig Price - As of December 18, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, and the inventory in the circulation and production links was relatively high. The live pig price was 5.85 yuan/jin [189] 8. Sugar 8.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the raw sugar index fell back to test the 14 - cent mark, and the Zhengzhou sugar index continued to decline. It is expected that the 5000 - yuan mark may be the short - term bottom [196][197] 8.2 Data Overview - In the 2025/26 sugar - pressing season as of December 1, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region was 39.904 million tons, a 1.13% year - on - year increase. The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil's central - southern region is 16.43 cents/pound, higher than the ICE raw sugar price. The import processing profit of raw sugar declined this week [204][205][209]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed market is affected by international factors, with domestic rapeseed products following the downward trend of international rapeseed. The short - term outlook for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is weak, but there are also some supporting factors in the domestic market [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 05 - contract closing at 8,744 yuan/ton, a decrease of 603 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The AAFC raised Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season, easing the supply - demand situation and dragging down prices. Other factors include the EPA's pending biofuel blending mandates, the decline in Malaysian palm oil exports, and the drop in crude oil prices. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is tightening, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to inventory reduction. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With ample soybean oil supply, rapeseed oil demand remains limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with the 05 - contract closing at 2,323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: During the US soybean export season, supply is abundant, and Brazil's high - yield forecast intensifies competition. China's procurement has slowed down, causing the US soybean futures price to fall. Domestically, near - term imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, rapeseed meal demand is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures declined significantly this week, with a total open interest of 208,179 lots, an increase of 37,152 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with a total open interest of 598,488 lots, an increase of 16,820 lots from last week [14]. - The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed oil futures was - 27,499 this week, compared to - 2,529 last week, indicating a significant increase in net short positions. The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed meal futures was - 74,459 this week, compared to - 70,504 last week, also showing a significant increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,926 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [27]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,230 yuan/ton, a significant decline from last week. The basis between the active rapeseed oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 486 yuan/ton [33]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,400 yuan/ton, a slight decline from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active rapeseed meal contract was + 77 yuan/ton [39]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 2 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [45]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 - contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.764, and the average spot price ratio was 3.85 [48]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils - The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,032 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly this week. The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 452 yuan/ton, also narrowing slightly this week [58]. Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The 05 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 412 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 700 yuan/ton [64]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 150,000, 450,000, and 420,000 tons respectively [68]. - The spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,189 yuan/ton as of December 18. As of the 50th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. China's rapeseed imports in October 2025 were 0 tons [72][76][80]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.34%. China's rapeseed oil imports in November 2025 were 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 30,000 tons from last month [84]. - **Demand - Side**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering services were 605.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the weekly contract volume of domestic imported rapeseed oil was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [88][92]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week. China's rapeseed meal imports in October 2025 were 220,600 tons, a decrease of 85,700 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 63,000 tons from last month [96][100]. - **Demand - Side**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,977,900 tons [104]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of December 19, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 16.49%, a decrease of 0.71% from last week, at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating downward [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating [2] - Pigs: Oscillating upward [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn futures price continued to adjust on Thursday, with the near - month 2603 contract leading the decline. The spot price in Northeast China remained stable, and imported corn auctions in Liaoning would impact the market. The price of deep - processed corn in North China fluctuated. The supply pressure of the corn market is shifting backward, and the forward quotes are under continuous pressure [2]. - The CBOT soybeans fell for 5 consecutive days on Thursday due to long - position selling and demand concerns. The domestic import cost of soybeans has dropped, and the protein meal is weakly operating. The auction of imported soybeans is ongoing, with a scale of 550,000 tons. The domestic situation of sufficient supply, smooth forward soybean purchases, and cautious feed raw material procurement remains unchanged [2]. - The BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday, supported by bargain - hunting and improved price competitiveness. The domestic oil market is differentiated, with palm oil rising and rapeseed oil falling. The weak external market, falling import costs, and loose domestic supply are the reasons for the decline [2]. - The egg futures weakened on Thursday, with the 2601 and 2603 contracts closing down. The spot price of eggs is basically stable, and there is an expectation of a slow decline in future supply capacity. However, the cost side is weakening, and the futures are in a callback [2]. - The near - month 2603 contract of live pigs first rose and then fell on Thursday, while the forward contracts had limited declines and showed strength. There is an expectation of a price rebound before the Spring Festival, and the forward price is strong due to factors such as pig diseases and policy - driven inventory reduction [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - China's edible oil imports in November were 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. From January to November, the cumulative imports were 9.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The soybean oil imports in November were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 827.2%, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.8%. The palm oil imports in November were 330,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 97.8%, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 2.29 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [4]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in October were 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 3%. The production of crude palm oil in October was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than 2.59 million tons in the previous month [4]. - On December 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 130.59, a decrease of 0.02 points from the previous day, and the "Basket of Vegetables" product wholesale price index was 133.51, a decrease of 0.03 points from the previous day. As of 14:00 on that day, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.51 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase from the previous day; the beef price was 65.73 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease; the mutton price was 62.40 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease; the egg price was 7.41 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease; and the white - striped chicken price was 17.82 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data or analysis of these spreads and basis are provided [6][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3]. - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, the demand is boosted by the Winter Solstice stocking and the reluctance of farmers to sell, causing the pig price to maintain an upward trend. However, after the festival, the supply pressure may be released, which will restrict the pig price [2]. - For the egg market, although the festival stocking has accelerated the market turnover, the egg price remains in a low - level shock pattern due to the off - season consumption. The slow decline in inventory pressure on the supply side also restricts the egg price [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2603 contract was 11,325 yuan/ton, a change of - 110.00 yuan/ton or - 0.96% from the previous trading day [1]. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.80 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.01 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.15 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.25 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.25 yuan/kg, with no change. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.51 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The demand is boosted by the Winter Solstice stocking and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the supply is slightly tight in some northern areas, so the pig price keeps rising. The demand increase is mainly in East China, Shandong, and Henan. The pickling demand in Southwest China has also increased, while that in South China is relatively weak. After the festival, the supply pressure may be released and restrict the pig price [2]. Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is to be cautiously bearish [3]. Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 2,916 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 176.00 yuan or - 5.69% from the previous trading day [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong, it was 3.10 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, with no change. On December 18, 2025, the production - link inventory was 0.94 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, both unchanged from the previous day [3][4]. Market Analysis - The festival stocking has accelerated the market turnover, but since it is the off - season for egg consumption, the support of festival purchases from catering and households for the egg price is unsustainable. The slow decline in inventory pressure on the supply side restricts the egg price [5]. Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is to be cautiously bearish [6].

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2216 | -7 | -0.32% | 137,230 | -39.05% | 317,591 | -15.36% | | C2605 | | 2226 | -13 | -0.58% | 113,549 | 12.66% | 453,330 | 0.21% | | C2509 | | 2253 | -12 | -0.53% | 8,307 | 62.91% | 37,645 | 3.96% | | CS2601 | | 2499 | -13 | -0.52% | 107,745 | 48.81% | 104,235 | -19.56% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Soybean meal and live pigs have declined, and the prices of some varieties are expected to continue their downward trends or remain volatile at low levels, while cotton shows an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean sector is weak. Soybean meal prices have fallen to new lows due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and high inventory, and the downward trend may continue. Live pig prices have dropped. With high inventory, there is a risk of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. Although demand has increased, the supply still exceeds demand, and prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal continues to decline, affected by the fall of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, and high - inventory pressure. From January to November this year, China's imported soybean volume reached 103.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to look for resistance levels to place light short positions [2]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil continues to decline, pressured by the expectation of improved supply. Australian rapeseed is about to enter the crushing process after arrival, and there are rumors that COFCO is inquiring about distant - month Canadian rapeseed. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs reverses and declines, returning to the low - level range. High inventory, high selling willingness of farmers, and the risk of concentrated supply at the end of the year, along with substitute products diverting some consumption, lead to the decline. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, affected by the seasonal supply pressure of new sugar. Overseas, the production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase. Domestically, the southern sugarcane crushing is in full swing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [9]. 3.2.5 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton fluctuates upward and remains at a high level, supported by demand. From January to November this year, cotton imports decreased by 64% year - on - year. The sales rate has increased significantly, and downstream consumption is strong. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to place long positions on dips [12]. 3.2.6 Eggs - The main 2602 contract of eggs continues to decline, pressured by sufficient supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [13][15].

生猪 周三，生猪近月 2603 合约领涨，远期合约报价跟涨，在猪病和政策去产能的双 向因素影响下，生猪期价企稳上行。黑龙江市场生猪主流成交价格 10.99 元/公斤， 较昨日价格上涨 0.02 元/公斤；吉林市场主流成交价格 11.01 元/公斤，较昨日价 格上涨 0.04 元/公斤；辽宁地区生猪出栏主流价格 11.14 元/公斤，较昨日价格上 涨 0.02 元/公斤；内蒙古市场主流成交价格为 11 元/公斤，较昨日价格上涨 0.06 元/公斤。现东北地区中大猪价格相对坚挺，今日中大猪价格低价 11.0 元/公斤， 高价 11.8 元/公斤，标肥价差小幅走缩。技术上，继续关注生猪 3 月合约上行表 现，远期在猪病和政策去库存的利多因素下，价格表现偏强。 震荡上涨 二、市场信息 1. 据船运调查机构 SGS 公布数据显示，预计马来西亚 12 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 435882 吨，较上月同 期出口的 334295 吨增加 30.39%。 2. 12 月 16 日国家粮食交易中心计划拍卖 51.39 万吨，生产年限为 2022 年至 2024 年，分布在辽宁、天津、 河北、安徽、浙江、山东、湖南，交货日 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig market, pre - holiday stocking supports demand, and farmers are bullish in the short - term. Pig prices show regional differences, with North, East, and Southwest China relatively strong and Northeast China relatively weak. Short - term slaughter volume is expected to increase, supporting pig prices. Post - holiday large - scale farm sales rhythm and the sustainability of consumption support for demand should be monitored [1][2] - For the egg market, pre - holiday sentiment is warming up, and egg prices are stable and slightly increasing. Southern sales areas are following the price increase in production areas. During the winter solstice stocking period, supermarket and food factory demand is high, but overall supply remains high due to low old - hen culling, which may limit price increases [3][4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2603 contract was 11,435 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (+0.75%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 11.81 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.90 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.25 yuan/kg, unchanged. The national average wholesale price of pork was 17.43 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3,092 yuan/500 kg, down 22 yuan (-0.71%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.96 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.10 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan. On December 17, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.94 days, unchanged, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, down 0.02 days (-1.53%) [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Pig Market - Pre - holiday stocking supports demand, and farmers are bullish in the short - term. Pig prices vary regionally. Short - term slaughter volume increase is expected to support prices, and post - holiday sales rhythm and consumption sustainability should be watched [2] Egg Market - Pre - holiday sentiment is positive, and egg prices are stable and rising. Southern sales areas follow the price increase in production areas. High demand during stocking and high supply may limit price increases [4] Group 5: Strategies - For both the pig and egg markets, the strategy is cautiously bearish [3][5]

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2223 | 3 | 0.13% | 225,147 | -36.28% | 375,210 | -17.71% | | C2605 | | 2239 | 1 | 0.04% | 100,790 | 16.55% | 452,365 | 3.75% | | C2509 | | 2265 | 0 | 0.00% | 5,099 | -42.68% | 36,210 | -0.79% | | CS2601 | | 2512 | 10 | 0.40% | 72,404 | -21.31% | 129,585 | -6.55% | | CS2605 | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米主力 2603 合约延续调整。当日，玉米 1 月合约减仓约 5 万手，主力 | | | | 2603 合约增仓下行，3、5 月合约受制于周度均线压制，期价呈现调整表现。今 | | | | 日期货价格小幅下跌，北港玉米价格有所下滑，但东北产区价格基本无调整，目 | | | | 前价格下成交较为有限，但基层农户售粮意向一般，上货也较为有限。华北地区 | | | | 玉米价格整体维持稳定。山东深加工企业门前到货量尚可，个别企业价格窄幅调 | | | | 整，主流价格稳定，河南、河北企业价格保持稳定。从供应来看，华北地区干粮 | 震荡下行 | | | 供应依然偏少，基层收购依然没有放量。从需求来看，深加工企业和饲料企业按 | | | | 需采购，市场整体供需处于相对平衡的状态。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 | | | | 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行遇阻，动力不足。周初，玉米呈现技术调整要 | | | | 求，预计远期价格延续调整表现。 | | | ...