农产品日报 | 2025-11-19 现货涨跌互现，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3041元/吨，较前日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.07%；菜粕2601合约2431元/吨，较前日 变动-18元/吨，幅度-0.73%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01+9， 较前日变动+2；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-41，较前日变动+2；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2990元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-51，较前日变动+2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差RM01+179，较前日变动-2。 近期市场资讯，11月17日，巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西11月前两周出口大豆230.2万吨，日均 出口量为23万吨，较上年11月全月的日均出口量13.4万吨增加71%。 上年11月全月出口量为255.3万吨。11月17日， 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年11月13日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为117.6万吨，此前市 场预估 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including sugar, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, pulp, offset paper, and logs, providing short - and medium - term outlooks and trading strategies for each [1][6][7][9][11][14][16][17][18][21]. - Overall, different products face various market situations, with some showing short - term support but medium - to - long - term downward pressure, while others are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and cost, resulting in complex market trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is testing the support at 5400 yuan/ton again [1][17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to see increased sugar production in Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, leading to a surplus in the international sugar market and downward pressure on prices. In the short - term, Brazil's export volume is decreasing, and the domestic market is supported by tightened import policies and expected reduced imports [1][17]. - **Outlook**: Medium - to - long - term is weak with a downward trend; short - term price range is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton, and the operation idea is to short on rallies [2][17]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: The cost of domestic soybean oil has increased, and it is oscillating strongly; palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating [6]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the market is waiting for US economic data, and there are differences in the Fed's monetary policy. From an industrial perspective, the expectation of US soybean exports is fluctuating, and the planting progress in South America is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high, and the de - stocking speed of soybean oil is slow. The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the consumption of palm oil in Indonesia's biodiesel has increased. The supply of rapeseed in China is currently tight but is expected to increase later [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is oscillating strongly, palm oil and rapeseed oil are oscillating. The market is affected by multiple long and short factors [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **View**: China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and the internal and external market fluctuations have intensified [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the USDA has lowered US soybean exports, but China's procurement may return. US soybean crushing volume has reached a new high, and South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the import profit of soybeans has improved, but the January shipment is still at a loss. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean and rapeseed meals are oscillating. It is recommended to buy at low prices around 3000 - 3050 but not to chase the rise [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **View**: The spot price continues to rise, and the futures price has a slight correction [7]. - **Logic**: The supply of corn has decreased due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the demand has increased due to the tight inventory of feed - using enterprises in the sales area. The state - owned grain reserve rotation is ongoing, and the import auction has a high transaction rate. However, the new grain listing pressure has not been fully released [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.5 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs for slaughter is abundant, and the pig price is weak [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms has increased slightly, and the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow. In the medium - term, the number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase. In the long - term, the production capacity of sows is showing signs of reduction [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the near - term, the slaughter pressure at the end of the year is large; in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **View**: It continues to oscillate in a narrow range [11]. - **Logic**: Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, providing some support. However, demand has not changed significantly recently. If there is no strong expectation difference or macro - drive, the rubber price may face downward pressure [13]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend. Pay attention to widening the RU - NR spread [13]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains an oscillating trend [14]. - **Logic**: The futures price has rebounded recently but has not reversed. The main reason for the support is the relatively stable transaction of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the market sentiment is still cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are high. It is recommended to short on rallies before butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions [15]. 3.8 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price is adjusting downward [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA's November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the domestic new cotton production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weakening, and the supply is increasing in the fourth quarter. The price is in a correction stage [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract has a correction risk; in the long - term, the valuation is low and it is oscillating strongly [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The 01 contract funds continue to flow out, and the correction pressure persists [17]. - **Logic**: The main reason for the recent correction of the 01 contract is the continuous exit of long - side funds. There is an obvious position - shifting phenomenon, which accelerates the capital exit. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. The market is mainly driven by funds [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures are mainly in a wide - range oscillation [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Offset paper is following the decline of pulp [18]. - **Logic**: In November, the overall fundamentals are at the bottom - building stage. The price is affected by factors such as the paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream demand, and cost. In December, the market may be dragged down by the dealers' price - cutting for sales. In the first quarter of 2026, the market may enter a stage of narrow - range oscillation [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly following the pulp as the paper mills' price - increasing sentiment is high [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: It is oscillating in a narrow range and is at the bottom - building stage [21]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high in the long - term, and the demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026. The inventory is slowly decreasing in the short - term and is expected to increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no clear contradictions, and the spot price is under pressure. It is oscillating at a low level recently [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2234.87, down 0.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2534.70, down 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2208.90, down 0.88% [179]. - The agricultural product index on November 18, 2025, was 928.27, with a daily decline of 0.46%, a 5 - day decline of 0.79%, a 1 - month increase of 0.04%, and a decline of 2.77% since the beginning of the year [181].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on November 19, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Bean Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The price of US soybeans reached 1070 cents per bushel, hitting the cost line and triggering a correction. Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 6 cents per bushel. The cost of imported soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly by 20 yuan per ton, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan per ton. The trading and pick - up of soybean meal were both good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3492 million tons, compared with 2.0776 million tons last week. Soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week last week but remained high year - on - year [2] - In the next two weeks, the areas in the Brazilian soybean - producing regions with less rainfall in the early stage are expected to receive rainfall, and the sowing is expected to proceed smoothly. As of last Thursday, the planting progress had reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, tightening the global soybean balance sheet marginally. The US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but the US soybean exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory. The US soybean futures price thus corrected at high levels [3] Strategy View - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. The current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5] Group 3: Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days decreased by 10%. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, and was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. The US Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Domestic oils fluctuated on Tuesday and rose at night. The expectation of seasonal de - stocking supported the market, and the EPA's proposal for higher biodiesel usage in 2026 than expected also had an impact. The domestic spot basis was stable [7] Strategy View - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports has provided some support. The sustainability of this support needs to be observed. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to view palm oil as range - bound, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [8][10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5407 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups had no quotes for old sugar; Yunnan sugar - making groups' new sugar was quoted at 5630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5870 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The International Sugar Organization predicted that there would be a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, compared with a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. It is expected that the global sugar production will increase by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, an increase of 473,700 tons or 13.8% year - on - year. As of now, 325 sugar mills in India have started production, an increase of 181 compared with the same period last year. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 12.8 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons compared with the same period last year; the sugar production reached 1.05 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons; the average sugar yield was 8.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year [11][12] Strategy View - Recently, the strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the Zhengzhou sugar futures price, but the external market is still weak. Since August this year, due to the significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane - made sugar, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year, leading to a continuous decline in the raw sugar price. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short at high prices [13] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and fell. The closing price of the January contract was 13,395 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1394 yuan per ton. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September estimate. The US cotton production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the Brazilian production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the Indian production remained at 5.23 million tons; the Chinese production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. As of the week of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last week, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [15][16] Strategy View - Fundamentally, the downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is also significant selling - hedging pressure due to this year's domestic bumper harvest. However, the previous decline in the futures price has digested some negative factors. The market currently lacks strong driving forces, and the cotton price is expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable to lower yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.08 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty. The price in Heishan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan per catty. The supply remained stable, the downstream demand was generally weak, and there was a small amount of inventory pressure. Traders were conservative, and the short - term bearish sentiment was mild. The egg price is expected to be stable to lower today [20] Strategy View - The futures price rebounded earlier than the spot price due to market expectations of a turnaround in the egg - laying hen inventory and increased demand after the temperature drop. The far - month contracts were relatively strong, but the spot price did not rise as expected, leading to an increase in the premium. The futures price fluctuated due to market sentiment. In the short term, the focus is on the strength of demand. The futures price is expected to trade in a range before the spot price realizes the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts are about the premium/discount game, and the far - month contracts reflect the expectation of production capacity reduction. In the medium term, as demand weakens and the focus returns to supply, pay attention to the upper resistance and look for opportunities to short on rebounds [21] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable with some minor increases yesterday. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 11.62 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan per kilogram. Farmers were reluctant to sell, and the supply of large - sized pigs was normal. The downstream had difficulty in purchasing at low prices. The pig price is expected to be stable to higher today [23] Strategy View - The current rebound in the pig price is mainly driven by frozen pork storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, create a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large pig weight before the Spring Festival. In the context of oversupply, the general direction of the futures price is to short on rebounds. However, the current pattern of low prices and high open interest has formed, and there is a possibility of a rebound in the short term. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, the first - recommended strategy is the reverse spread, followed by shorting on rebounds [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil is expected to maintain low - level volatility or weak rebounds due to concerns about slowing exports. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan, and there is pressure to weaken further. Port inventories are expected to rise as demand weakens with falling temperatures [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. This supports CBOT soybean oil. In China, spot prices rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory soybean oil inventories changed little, with a balance between production and demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are weak. The market is actively selling pigs, and slaughterhouses have no difficulty in procurement, suppressing prices. The market is in a weak range - bound pattern. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet was in line with market expectations. US soybeans lack substantial bullish factors and face difficulties in continuing to rise. China's 13% tariff on US soybeans affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and prices will maintain wide - range fluctuations [8]. 2.4 Corn Industry - In the corn market, prices in the Northeast are strong due to increased stocking, and those in North China are stable as the number of delivery vehicles to deep - processing plants increases. There is a selling pressure expectation due to a bumper harvest. The demand side shows good deep - processing profits and limited feed - end restocking. Corn prices may have a limited rebound [10]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - India allows 25/26 sugar exports of 1.5 million tons, but short - term exports may be difficult. Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest, with a loose supply. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The November USDA cotton supply - demand balance sheet is bearish. Globally, production increased significantly while demand increased slightly, and ending stocks rose. In China, new cotton listings bring short - term pressure, and downstream demand is weak overall, but some products support cotton prices. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The number of laying hens in production remains high, and the supply is loose. The market is in a seasonal off - peak period, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short positions in the near - month contracts can be gradually closed [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is adjusted to 32.276 billion pounds. Ending stocks are down 1.4% year - on - year. In China, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory inventories changed little [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Affected by export concerns, it will maintain low - level volatility. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan. Port inventories are expected to rise [1]. - **Price and Spread Changes**: The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and there were also changes in cross - period spreads and inter - variety spreads [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis decreased by 120.00%, and the prices of pig 2605 and pig 2601 decreased by 0.45% and 0.68% respectively [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline of 400 yuan/ton in Guangdong [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume increased slightly by 0.05%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased by 28.70% and 17.15% respectively [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed. The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also had significant changes [8]. - **Market Situation**: The USDA's report was in line with expectations. US soybeans lack bullish factors, and China's tariff affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose [8]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 92.00%. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.64%, and the basis increased by 320.00% [10]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.22% and 0.11% respectively, and the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.67% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 1.06%, and that in Kunming increased by 0.54%. Imported sugar prices from Brazil increased [14]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, but the national sales rate decreased. Industrial inventories in some regions increased, and imports increased [14]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and cotton 2601 decreased slightly, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Xinjiang cotton and the CC Index decreased slightly, while the difference between the CC Index and the FC Index increased [15]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial and industrial inventories increased, imports increased, but textile exports decreased [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of egg 12 and egg 01 contracts decreased, and the spot price in the production area decreased by 0.82% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - to - feed ratio increased by 2.56%, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% [17]. - **Market Situation**: The number of laying hens in production is high, supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term [17][18].

Group 1: Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean prices reached a one-year high due to strong demand outlook, with inspections totaling 1.176 million tons, meeting market expectations, and no inspections for China [1] - NOPA reported October soybean crush at 22.7647 million bushels, up 15% month-on-month and 14% year-on-year, marking a historical high [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to rise again, but the increase is anticipated to be lower than international markets due to a decrease in Brazilian premiums [1] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil prices increased due to production risks in Indonesia and a weak Malaysian ringgit, with exports from Malaysia down 10%-15.5% for the first half of November [2] - SPPOMA forecasts a 4.3% increase in palm oil production for the same period, while market pressure from inventory remains [2] - Domestic palm oil prices rose, while canola oil prices fell, with soybean oil showing little change; overall market volatility is decreasing [2] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures contracts are adjusting, with spot prices in Jiangsu province averaging 11.75 CNY/kg, indicating a downward trend in the market [3] - The supply-demand imbalance persists, leading to a bearish outlook for prices, with expectations of continued supply surplus [3] - Technical indicators suggest caution in trading strategies, with a recommendation to exit short positions and wait for stabilization [3] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 3229 CNY/500kg, while spot prices remained stable across various regions [4] - The market is relatively balanced in terms of supply and demand, with trade activity primarily driven by immediate needs [4] - Future supply is expected to decrease gradually, leading to a wide fluctuation in egg futures prices, with attention on potential rebound opportunities [4] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures showed a near-term adjustment, with funds shifting towards longer-term contracts, indicating a near strong and far weak market dynamic [5] - Prices in the Northeast region remain strong, with increased enthusiasm among traders for grain collection [5] - The market is experiencing upward pressure on prices due to rising costs, with cautious bullish sentiment maintained for the long term [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Report Core View - For the bean meal market, the current domestic supply is relatively abundant, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. Although the bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes. - For the corn market, new corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. The supply is slightly abundant, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Feed enterprises are cautious in building inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are increasing prices to purchase. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3043 yuan/ton yesterday, down 49 yuan/ton (-1.58%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2449 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.65%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area as of November 12 was 12.9% of the total expected area, up from 4.4% a week ago but 7.4% behind the same period last year and 3% behind the five - year average. The estimated planting area is 17.6 million hectares, a 4.3% year - on - year decrease. US private exporters reported selling 33.2 tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. The bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing but remains high. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future attention should be paid to soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2489 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - As of November 5, Argentine farmers sold 3072 tons of 2024/25 corn, 72 tons more than a week ago, and pre - sold 546 tons of 2025/26 corn, 46 tons more than a week ago. The Argentine corn spot price on November 5 was 270,000 pesos/ton, up from 267,500 pesos/ton a week ago [4] Market Analysis - New corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. Although the new - season Northeast corn has good yield and quality, port and production - area prices are rising. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to tight supply and rising prices. Feed enterprises are reluctant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are increasing prices to purchase. The supply is slightly abundant, and the supply - demand imbalance persists [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date strategy: Neutral to bearish [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm in the short term, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable. The market should focus on the inventory volume in Shandong and Shanxi and the shipping speed in the western region [2][3] - Red dates: The new red dates are expected to be listed intensively, and the inventory pressure is high. The future market trend depends on the actual consumption at the consumer end [7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of Apple 2601 contract was 9438 yuan/ton, a change of - 132 yuan/ton or - 1.38% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of Red date 2601 contract was 9270 yuan/ton, a change of + 80 yuan/ton or + 0.87% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - Western出库 work continues, with more buyers in western warehouses. Ground transactions are ending, mainly in Shanxi paper - wrapped film area and western towns of Shandong Qixia. The quality of ground goods is declining, and fruit farmers are selling at market prices [2] - The price of high - quality apples in the west is expected to remain stable and firm, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hetian and Qiemo is basically over, while that in Aksu and Alar is accelerating. The market adheres to the principle of pricing by quality [6] - The spot price in the sales area is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term [6] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The western出库 work is advancing, and the warehouse transactions in Gansu and Shaanxi are active. The ground transactions are ending, and the inventory volume is lower than last year [3] - The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price rose slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the main production areas is uneven, and the enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average [7] - The acquisition enthusiasm in the sales area has weakened, and the inventory is accumulating. The quality of new dates is better than last year [7] Group 6: Charts - There are multiple charts related to apple and red date prices, futures contracts, yields, consumption, inventory, and shipment volume, with data sources from Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Short - term negatives are fully priced in, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][4] - Soybean oil: With the stabilization of US soybeans, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][4] - Soybean meal: As US soybeans are strong, Dalian soybean meal may follow and rebound [2][13] - Soybean No.1: It may follow the rebound of the soybean market [2][14] - Corn: It will move in a range [2][17] - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the volume of new sugar transactions [2][21] - Cotton: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price [2][26] - Eggs: The near - term is weak and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse spread pattern [2][30] - Pigs: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][32] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures (day session) closed at 8,680 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; soybean oil futures (day session) closed at 8,282 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong dropped 20 yuan/ton, while that of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong remained unchanged [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: From November 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 4.09% month - on - month. Exports estimated by AmSpec decreased 10% and by SGS decreased 44.9% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia set the December palm oil reference price at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton with an export tax rate of 10.0% [5][6][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 1 [12] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 (day session) closed at 4,178 yuan/ton, down 0.10%; DCE soybean meal 2601 (day session) closed at 3,043 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. CBOT soybean 01 rose 3.12% [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 17, CBOT soybean futures hit a 17 - month high as China's COFCO Group increased its purchase of US soybeans, at least 840,000 tons [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend intensity of +1 [16] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of C2601 was 2,182 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of the corn market increased by 115,065 hands, and the open interest decreased by 22,020 hands [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn prices increased, and Guangdong's prices also rose. Northeast's deep - processing corn prices strengthened, and North China's prices generally increased [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [20] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.75 cents/pound, down 0.1. The mainstream spot price was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 110 [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: The 25/26 Indian sugar export quota is 150 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased 1% year - on - year, and exports increased 13% [21] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [24] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 (day session) closed at 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The trading volume increased by 103,355 hands, and the open interest increased by 25,349 hands [26] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading improved slightly, cotton yarn prices were stable but trading was weak. ICE cotton futures rose slightly [27] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [29] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2512 closed at 2,987 yuan/500 kg, down 1.84%. Egg 2601 closed at 3,499 yuan/500 kg, down 0.68% [30] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [30] Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price was 11,680 yuan/ton, down 300. The trading volume of the live pig 2601 contract increased by 20,120 hands, and the open interest increased by 6,579 hands [32] - **Trend Intensity**: Pigs have a trend intensity of - 2 [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK601 closed at 7,884 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The trading volume of the peanut market increased by 59,331 hands, and the open interest increased by 9,799 hands [35] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Henan, peanut prices were stable and strong; in Jilin and Liaoning, prices were stable and weak [36] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on November 17, with fluctuations in various commodity prices [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - Raw sugar futures decreased by 1.40%, closing at 14.75 cents per pound [1] Group 2: Cotton Market - Cotton futures experienced a slight increase of 0.12%, closing at 64.21 cents per pound [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures fell by 1.03%, ending at $5,401.00 per ton [1] Group 4: Coffee Market - Coffee futures rose by 1.03%, closing at 377.85 cents per pound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, the expected record - high production in 2025 may pressure the benchmark price, but Indonesia's B85 policy supports the market. Dalian palm oil futures are in an upward - trending oscillation and may continue to strengthen in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline after facing resistance below 9000 yuan [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report's less - than - expected reduction in US soybean production led to a decline in CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, high inventory and weak downstream demand may cause short - term callbacks in Dalian soybean oil [1]. - **Corn**: Due to factors like farmers' price - holding, logistics issues, and demand from deep - processing and feed sectors, corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance. The price may rebound but is limited by supply pressure, with attention on the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: India's export policy and Brazil's approaching end of the harvest season make the sugar market relatively calm. The price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate around 14 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar market is likely to maintain an oscillating trend next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton prices. In China, the short - term pressure from new cotton supply and weak downstream demand are offset by the relatively low inventory of spinning enterprises, resulting in short - term price pressure within a range [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November report lacks significant positive factors. With high domestic soybean inventory and expected reserve rotation, the meal market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [11]. - **Eggs**: High egg production inventory and weak demand lead to a short - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed and the willingness to support prices has increased, the market is expected to remain in a weak, oscillating state this week [15]. - **Pigs**: Weak spot prices and high market supply pressure the price, but there is support at low levels. The overall slow progress of November's planned slaughter may boost the price. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the basis was 334 yuan/ton, up 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the basis was - 54 yuan/ton, up 70.33%. The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton, down 8.89% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the basis was 367 yuan/ton, up 28.77% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread was 228 yuan/ton, up 2.70%; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton, down 13.73%; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread was 499 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 732 yuan/ton, up 3.68%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1667 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.05% - 0.45%. The basis was 25 yuan/ton, up 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, up 5.63%. The price at Shekou was 2330 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The import profit was 301 yuan/ton, up 5.00%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 11.15%. The position was 1859009, down 1.16% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2505 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 5 yuan/ton, up 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 spread between starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The profit of Shandong starch was 35 yuan/ton, down 2.78%. The position was 301830, down 0.43% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5404 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.85 cents/pound, up 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 16.46%. The position of the main contract was 370242, down 2.99%. The number of warehouse receipts was 8622, up 11.67%; the effective forecast was 183, down 84.53% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 256 yuan/ton, up 12.78%; in Kunming, it was 136 yuan/ton, up 27.10%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 3978 yuan/ton, down 1.41%; (outside quota) was 5036 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales were 1048.00 tons, up 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 tons, up 4.59%. The monthly sales in Guangxi were 26.66 tons, down 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60%; in Guangxi, it was 93.90%, up 4.80%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 tons, down 41.20%; in Guangxi, it was 44.21 tons, up 62.90%; in Yunnan, it was 33.65 tons, up 26.60%. Sugar imports were 55.00 tons, up 37.50% [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 300%. The position of the main contract was 556440, down 1.15%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4401, up 5.29%; the effective forecast was 643, down 26.77% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) was 14594 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The CC Index (3128B) was 14806 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The FC Index (M: 1%) was 12913 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1124 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1144 yuan/ton, up 1.78%. The spread between CC Index (3128B) and FC Index (M: 1%) was 1883 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 293.06 tons, up 70.4%; imports were 10.00 tons, up 42.9%; the bonded area inventory was 31.10 tons, up 8.0%. The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 3.5%. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 tons, up 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises was - 1796.60 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1471.00 billion yuan, up 19.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 6.30%, up 34.0%. The year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was - 9.10%, down 242.1%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and clothing accessories exports was - 15.96%, down 100.2% [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the basis was - 32 yuan/ton, down 52.38%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian ships in February was - 7 yuan/ton, down 800% [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the basis was 10 yuan/ton, up 25.00%. The import crushing profit of Canadian ships in January was 777 yuan/ton, down 3.48% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4215 yuan/ton, up 2.08%; the basis was - 295 yuan/ton, down 41.15%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the second - grade soybean contract was 3803 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; the basis was 147 yuan/ton, down 8.70% [11]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 244 yuan/ton, up 11.42%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 65 yuan/ton, up 3.17%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.02%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.67, down 1.40%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 560 yuan/ton, up 1.82%; the 2601 spread was 602 yuan/ton, up 3.97% [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG, down 0.23%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3235 yuan/500KG, down 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG, up 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.34%. The basis was - 51 yuan/500KG, down 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 4.04 yuan/jin, up 0.25%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.34, down 1.68%. The breeding profit was - 26.52 yuan/feather, down 8.51% [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 582 yuan/ton, up 103.57%. The price of the 2605 - contract was 12195 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the price of the 2601 - contract was 11775 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 420 yuan/ton, down 12.00%. The position of the main contract was 130675, down 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton, up 60.0; in Shandong, it was 12190 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Sichuan, it was 11340 yuan/ton, down 60.0; in Liaoning, it was 11640 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Guangdong, it was 12450 yuan/ton, down 160.0; in Hunan, it was 11440 yuan/ton, down 70.0; in Hebei, it was 11970 yuan/ton, up 70.0 [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 162927, down 0.74%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.60 yuan, unchanged. The weekly price of piglets was 17.25 yuan/kg, up 1.47%; the weekly price of sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly slaughter weight was 128.48 kg, up 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit was - 115 yuan/head, down 28.70%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 206 yuan/head, down 17.15%. The monthly number of fertile sows was 40350000, down 0.07% [17].