| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | 52.70% | F期现价差 | -4.31 | -4.04 | 78.60% | H期现价差 | 8.07 | 97.50% | 1.65 | 92.20% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 12.41 | -18.48 | 99.10% | 96.00% | 45.27 | IM期现价差 | -16.75 | 90.00% | 61.60% | 次月-当月 | -2.60 | -1.20 | 87.7096 | 54:20% | | | 零月-当月 | -39.00 | -2.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 23, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][36][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from January 16 to January 22, 2026, shows a continuous decline from - 106 to - 116 yuan/ton. The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) remain at 4.0, 0.0, 0.0 respectively during this period [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented, along with their price ratios and other data. For example, on January 22, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is - 1.74 yuan/ton [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber is - 645 yuan/ton. Inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are also given, with the LLDPE - PVC spread being 1953 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026. Basis data of these chemical commodities from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar is - 70 yuan/ton. Inter - variety spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are also provided, with the rebar/iron ore ratio being 3.98 on January 22, 2026. Basis data of these black metals from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented [20][21] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper is - 690 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026 [28] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 22, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (82.84) and the import profit/loss is (143.21) [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products and inter - variety spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are also provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 167 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of these stock index futures are also provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 is 21.95 on January 22, 2026 [48]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, wait and see as the price needs to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. [2] - For methanol, with low valuation and an improving outlook next year, the downside is limited. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, and there is feasibility to buy on dips. [3] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so take profits on rallies. [6] - For rubber, with a weak seasonal pattern, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Short - term electricity price expectations and pre - April 1 export rush support the price, but mid - term, short on rallies before significant industry production cuts. [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high with limited room for upward valuation repair. As the non - integrated profit has significantly recovered, gradually take profits. [17] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. Although the spot price has risen, the valuation has room to decline further. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and reduced coal - based inventory, the price has support, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] - For polypropylene, the EIA report forecasts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In a context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] - For PX, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both PX and its downstream PTA will have strong supply - demand, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy on dips following crude oil. [26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage with high short - term maintenance on the supply side and weakening demand due to seasonality. There is room for valuation to rise after the Spring Festival, and look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the inventory - accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under new - plant commissioning pressure. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran and cold wave expectations. [30] 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 446.40 yuan/barrel. Related refined product futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 1.89%, to 2592.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 51.00 yuan/ton, or 1.65%, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see currently. [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 45.00 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 1 yuan. [3] - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the valuation is low and the outlook is improving. [3] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 3 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton. [5] - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals. [6] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded with a volatile pattern. The long - side reasons include limited production growth in Southeast Asian rubber forests, a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side reasons are uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14700 (+100) yuan, STR20 was 1885 (+15) dollars, etc. [8][9][10] - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 106 yuan to 4849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 36) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 43.9%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory was 31.1 million tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 million tons (+3). [13] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies mid - term before significant industry production cuts. [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract closing price was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 240 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7600 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the active contract closing price was 7694 yuan/ton, up 386 yuan/ton; the basis was - 94 yuan/ton, weakening by 136 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 9.35 million tons, a reduction of 0.71 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 41.91%, up 1.02%. [16] - **Strategy**: Gradually take profits as the non - integrated profit of styrene has significantly recovered. [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 83 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a reduction of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton. [19] - **Strategy**: The price has support from reduced coal - based inventory and OPEC+ production suspension, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6624 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, weakening by 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a reduction of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a reduction of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a reduction of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02%. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton. [21][22] - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 184 yuan to 7390 yuan; PX CFR rose 19 dollars to 907 dollars. The basis was - 70 yuan (- 30), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 78 yuan (- 4). The Chinese PX load was 88.9%, down 0.5%; the Asian load was 81%, up 0.4%. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a monthly increase of 6 million tons. [25] - **Strategy**: Look for mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival. [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 144 yuan to 5298 yuan; the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5155 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, up 0.3%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons. The spot processing fee was 353 yuan, down 31 yuan; the futures processing fee was 450 yuan, up 23 yuan. [27] - **Strategy**: Expect inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 158 yuan to 3847 yuan; the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 3660 yuan. The basis was - 109 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 103 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, down 1.4%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 million tons, and the East China port departure on January 21 was 0.76 million tons. The port inventory was 79.5 million tons, a reduction of 0.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 862 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 5 yuan. [29] - **Strategy**: Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term and expect further valuation compression mid - term without significant production cuts. [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the PTA basis is weak. The crude oil price has retreated, but potential risks remain, and it will fluctuate around the situations in Venezuela and Iran. The PX fundamentals are weakening in the short - term, but the medium - term expectation is good. The PTA is under short - term pressure due to weak demand, but the processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term [1]. - The polyester开工率 is decreasing, the terminal procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the filament inventory is accumulating. The PF is facing inventory accumulation pressure, and the PR has smoothly reduced inventory before the Spring Festival [1][2]. - For trading strategies, go long on PX/PTA/PF/PR in the short - term under capital increase, but pay attention to PX fluctuations, polyester and PTA factory actions, and go long on dips for mid - term hedging. Also, go long on PTA and short on MEG for cross - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][13] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][17] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [25][28][30] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operation rate [43][45][53] 3.7 Detailed PF Data - Figures involve 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [67][71][74] 3.8 Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][92]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to open higher intraday due to the overnight sharp rebound in oil prices affected by the US-Iran conflict. The industry is a bit weak. The price has limited downside space before the Spring Festival and faces pressure after the festival. Attention should be paid to the hedging of going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on SC/MX and short on PX. The future PX supply and demand are expected to gradually weaken [5]. - For PTA, the overnight oil price rebound supports its valuation. Attention should be paid to reducing the processing fee position. The future supply and demand of PTA are both weak, and it will enter a state of inventory accumulation [6]. - MEG has valuation support below 3600, showing a range - bound market. Attention should be paid to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage. The supply pressure is still large, but the downside space is limited [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7206, 5154, 3689, 6496, and 440.8 respectively. The price changes were - 26, 10, 15, 2, and 3.8, with price change rates of - 0.36%, 0.19%, 0.41%, 0.03%, and 0.87% respectively [2]. - The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 on the previous day were 42, 44, - 117, - 40, and - 0.6 respectively, with price changes of - 18, - 8, - 10, 2, and 1.3 respectively compared with the previous day [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were 888.33 dollars/ton, 5085 yuan/ton, 3581 yuan/ton, 558.5 dollars/ton, and 67.43 dollars/barrel respectively. The price changes were 0.33, 75, - 14, 9.5, and - 0.57 respectively compared with the previous day [2]. - The spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread on the previous day were 330.5, 309.31, 120.64, 149.42, and - 4.34 respectively. The price changes were 4.42, - 70.31, - 21.37, 47.24, and 0 respectively compared with the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - Crude oil: Some oil fields in Kazakhstan have not resumed production, and geopolitical uncertainties remain, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The US military is strengthening its air power in the Middle East due to high - tension relations between the US and Iran [4]. - PX: The naphtha price was weakly maintained in the late trading. The estimated price of February MOPJ was 555 dollars/ton CFR. On January 21, the PX price remained stable. In 2025, the total PX import volume in mainland China was 9.607 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The import dependence rebounded slightly to around 20% [4]. - Polyester: On January 21, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased, with an average sales rate of about 80% by 3:30 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber declined, with an average sales rate of 78% by 3:00 pm [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1 [5].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/1 5 801 2247 2243 2345 - 2315 2435 - 322 - -25 - 2026/01/1 6 801 2230 2231 2345 - 2315 2435 264 322 -16 -25 - 2026/01/1 9 801 2217 2203 2355 - 2315 2410 264 322 -40 -25 - 2026/01/2 0 801 2208 2178 2355 - 2285 2388 262 322 -29 0 - 2026/01/2 1 801 2213 2200 2355 - 2285 2385 - - - 0 - 日度变化 0 5 22 0 - 0 -3 - - - 0 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry News - BHP Billiton reported record-high iron ore production in the first half of the year and accepted a partial price cut in annual contract negotiations with China [1] - On January 19, an explosion occurred at a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking department of Baotou Steel Plate Factory, affecting the production of the plate mill and surrounding production lines [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] 2. Futures Market Data 2.1 Price and Trading Volume - RB2605 closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.35%), with a trading volume of 633,661 lots and an open interest of 1,742,258 lots, an increase of 1,023 lots [2] - HC2605 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 335,123 lots and an open interest of 1,449,160 lots, a decrease of 36,985 lots [2] 2.2 Spot Price - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged [2] - The spot price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou remained unchanged, while the price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Tangshan steel billets remained unchanged at 2,930 yuan/ton [2] 2.3 Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -16 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between RB2605 and RB2610 increased by 3 yuan/ton to -45 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2605 and HC2610 remained unchanged at -19 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between HC2605 and RB2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to 169 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2610 and RB2610 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 143 yuan/ton [2] 3. Weekly Data 3.1 Production - On January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 0.62 tons [4] 3.2 Inventory - Rebar inventory decreased by 0.04 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 tons [4] 3.3 Apparent Demand - Rebar apparent demand increased by 14.44 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 5.55 tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 27.5 tons [4] 4. Import and Export Data 4.1 December 2025 - China imported 51.7 million tons of steel in December 2025, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons (4.2%), with an average price of 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton (11.0%) [4] - From January to December, China imported 605.9 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 75.6 million tons (11.1%) [4] 4.2 October 2025 - China imported 50.3 million tons of steel in October 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%), with an average price of 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%) [4] - From January to October, China imported 504.1 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 68.0 million tons (11.9%) [4] 5. Production and Inventory of Key Steel Enterprises 5.1 December 2025 - In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1,807 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.0% [4] - They produced 1,837 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.670 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [4] - They produced 2,081 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.892 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [4] 5.2 Social Inventory - In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27 million tons (3.6%), a decrease of 112 million tons (13.4%) compared with late November, and an increase of 62 million tons (9.4%) compared with the same period last year [4] 5.3 Enterprise Inventory - In late December, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,414 million tons, a decrease of 187 million tons (11.7%) compared with the previous ten days, an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the beginning of the year, a decrease of 14 million tons (1.0%) compared with the same period last month, an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 178 million tons (14.4%) compared with the same period the year before last [4] 6. Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar is 0, and the trend strength of hot-rolled coil is 0 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, the monthly spread rebounded significantly, the high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded significantly, and the high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the inter - month spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil slightly increased in stock, which was at a historical high year - on - year, ARA residue oil slightly decreased in stock, and Fujairah residue oil increased in stock. [3][4] - This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur was stronger than that of low - sulfur. The high - sulfur spot tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside space was limited, while the low - sulfur external market remained weak. [4] 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 336.61 | 344.17 | 347.28 | 3.11 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 385.89 | 387.29 | 392.05 | 4.76 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 10.45 | - 10.09 | - 10.43 | - 9.82 | - 9.95 | - 0.13 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 630.80 | 645.50 | 660.65 | 15.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | - 236.84 | - 244.62 | - 244.91 | - 258.21 | - 268.60 | - 10.39 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 22.94 | 23.87 | 23.87 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 50.80 | 48.52 | 49.28 | 43.12 | 44.77 | 1.65 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 359.16 | 356.84 | 359.12 | 355.91 | 372.09 | [1] | Singapore 180cst M1 | 363.46 | 363.27 | 364.49 | 364.98 | 374.36 | [1] | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 426.98 | 426.45 | 427.95 | 423.67 | 436.23 | [1] | Singapore GO M1 | 81.65 | 81.51 | 82.07 | 82.46 | 85.51 | [1] | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.10 | - 6.79 | - 6.30 | - 6.65 | - 5.97 | [1] | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | - 177.23 | - 176.72 | - 179.37 | - 186.53 | - 196.54 | [1] | Singapore FOB 380cst | 358.88 | 358.34 | 359.26 | 355.87 | 362.64 | 6.77 | [2] | Singapore FOB VLSFO | 429.02 | 429.37 | 431.00 | 425.98 | 428.48 | 2.50 | [2] | Singapore 380cst Basis | - 1.45 | - 1.65 | - 1.45 | - 0.80 | 0.25 | 1.05 | [2] | Singapore High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 13.9 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 1.3 | [2] | Singapore Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 16.9 | 16.3 | - 0.6 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2510 | 2485 | 2478 | 2467 | 2482 | 15 | [2] | FU 05 | 2566 | 2520 | 2526 | 2507 | 2539 | 32 | [2] | FU 09 | 2533 | 2498 | 2500 | 2487 | 2510 | 23 | [2] | FU 01 - 05 | - 56 | - 35 | - 48 | - 40 | - 57 | - 17 | [2] | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 22 | 26 | 20 | 29 | 9 | [2] | FU 09 - 01 | 23 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 28 | 8 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3166 | 3088 | 3136 | 3120 | 3135 | 15 | [3] | LU 05 | 3074 | 3041 | 3052 | 3066 | 3071 | 5 | [3] | LU 09 | 3090 | 3056 | 3073 | 3085 | 3090 | 5 | [3] | LU 01 - 05 | 92 | 47 | 84 | 54 | 64 | 10 | [3] | LU 05 - 09 | - 16 | - 15 | - 21 | - 19 | - 19 | 0 | [3] | LU 09 - 01 | - 76 | - 32 | - 63 | - 35 | - 45 | - 10 | [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the base price of thermal coal showed a continuous decline, starting from -100.40 yuan/ton on January 15 and dropping to -115.40 yuan/ton on January 21 [2]. II. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Energy Commodities**: - **Base Price**: For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, the base prices on January 21 were 62.33, -0.58, and 64.30 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1395 on January 21 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber was - 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, LLDPE - PVC was 1896 yuan/ton [9]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rubber on January 21 was - 345 yuan/ton [10]. III. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 5 - month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar was - 780.30 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, rebar/iron ore was 3.96 [19]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rebar on January 21 was 143.0 yuan/ton [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of copper on January 21 was - 1270 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 21 were given. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (29.11), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83 [31]. V. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: The base prices of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of soybeans No.1 on January 21 was - 152 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 was - 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.89 [37]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: The base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on January 21 was 0.27 [49]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were given. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 57.4 [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals and Minerals - Copper (CU) has a 0.29% 主力基差率, up 0.30% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 330, 次月基差 of 290, and 再次月基差 of 70 [3] - Aluminum (AL) has a -0.42% 主力基差率, up 0.22% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -45, 次月基差 of -100, and 再次月基差 of -160 [3] - Zinc (ZN) has a -0.12% 主力基差率, up 0.38% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 30, 次月基差 of -30, and 再次月基差 of -65 [3] - Lead (PB) has a -1.35% 主力基差率, up 0.32% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -170, 次月基差 of -235, and 再次月基差 of -275 [3] - Tin (SN) has a 0.71% 主力基差率, up 0.76% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 2730, 次月基差 of 2730, and 再次月基差 of 2670 [3] - Industrial Silicon (NI) has a 3.59% 主力基差率, up 0.14% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 2020, 次月基差 of 4860, and 再次月基差 of 4650 [3] - Lithium Carbonate (LC) has a -1.35% 主力基差率, up 0.93% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -590, 次月基差 of -1470, and 再次月基差 of -1570 [3] - Gold (AU) has a -0.34% 主力基差率, down -0.2B% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -3.61, 次月基差 of -6.53, and 再次月基差 of -8.73 [3] - Silver (AG) has a -0.23% 主力基差率, down -0.93% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -104, 次月基差 of -53, and 再次月基差 of -25 [3] Black Industry - Rebar (RB) has a 4.46% 主力基差率, down -0.51% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 140, 次月基差 of 92 [3] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC) has a -1.18% 主力基差率, down -1.63% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -39, 次月基差 of -59, and 再次月基差 of -84 [3] - Iron Ore has an 8.14% 主力基差率, up 1.32% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 64.6, 次月基差 of 82.1, and 再次月基差 of 96.1 [3] - Coke has a -6.4% 主力基差率, down -0.22% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -116.0, 次月基差 of -193.5, and 再次月基差 of -276.5 [3] - Coking Coal (JIM) has a 1.11% 主力基差率, up 6.96% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 13.0, 次月基差 of -66.5, and 再次月基差 of -227.0 [3] - Thermal Coal (ZC) has a 12.55% 主力基差率, down -0.50% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -101.4, 次月基差 of -101.4, and 再次月基差 of -101.4 [3] - Ferrosilicon (SF) has a -4.7% 主力基差率, up 0.20% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -236, 次月基差 of -328, and 再次月基差 of -426 [3] - Manganese Silicon (SM) has a 1.93% 主力基差率, up 2.92% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 72, 次月基差 of 30, and 再次月基差 of -40 [3] - Stainless Steel has a -0.03% 主力基差率, down -0.91% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -20, 次月基差 of -125, and 再次月基差 of -310 [3] Agricultural and Sideline Products - Glass (FG) has a -4.67% 主力基差率, up 2.85% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -50, 次月基差 of -160, and 再次月基差 of -214 [3] - Soybean (A) has a -5.1% 主力基差率, up 0.07% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -221, 次月基差 of -252, and 再次月基差 of -280 [3] - Soybean Meal (M) has a 12.94% 主力基差率, unchanged from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 353, 次月基差 of 232, and 再次月基差 of 183 [3] - Rapeseed Meal (RM) has an 8.06% 主力基差率, down -1.47% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 179, 次月基差 of 113, and 再次月基差 of 183 [3] - Soybean Oil (V) has a 6.93% 主力基差率, up 0.27% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 554, 次月基差 of 674, and 再次月基差 of [3] - Rapeseed Oil (Ol) has a 9.53% 主力基差率, up 0.84% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 848, 次月基差 of 827, and 再次月基差 of 899 [3] - Peanut (PK) has a 16.60% 主力基差率, up 0.38% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 1358, 次月基差 of 994, and 再次月基差 of 1028 [3] - Palm Oil (P) has a 0.60% 主力基差率, up 0.30% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 55, 次月基差 of 78, and 再次月基差 of 62 [3] - Corn (C) has a 2.37% 主力基差率, unchanged from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 63, 次月基差 of 42, and 再次月基差 of 94 [3] - Corn Starch (CS) has a 0.59% 主力基差率, unchanged from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -20, 次月基差 of -50, and 再次月基差 of -3 [3] - Apple (AP) has a -8.51% 主力基差率, up 1.88% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -795, 次月基差 of 454, and 再次月基差 of 514 [3] - Egg (JD) has a 22.39% 主力基差率, up 5.21% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 184, 次月基差 of -248 [3] - Live Pig (LH) has a 14.48% 主力基差率, up 4.71% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 1455, 次月基差 of -30, and 再次月基差 of 1260 [3] Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Cotton (CF) has a 9.18% 主力基差率, down -0.01% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 1335, 次月基差 of 1170, and 再次月基差 of 740 [3] - Sugar (SR) has a 2.78% 主力基差率, up 0.27% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 146, 次月基差 of 130, and 再次月基差 of 50 [3] - Methanol (MA) has a 0.59% 主力基差率, up 0.10% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 13, 次月基差 of -11, and 再次月基差 of -58 [3] - Ethanol (EG) has a -3.20% 主力基差率, up 0.39% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -120, 次月基差 of -228, and 再次月基差 of 21 [3] - PTA (TA) has a -0.89% 主力基差率, up 0.26% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -45, 次月基差 of -3, and 再次月基差 of 21 [3] - Polypropylene (PP) has a 5.68% 主力基差率, up 0.23% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 368, 次月基差 of 335, and 再次月基差 of 354 [3] - Styrene (EB) has a 1.30% 主力基差率, down -0.26% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 212, 次月基差 of 396 [3] - Short Fiber has a 0.97% 主力基差率, down -0.2B% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -30, 次月基差 of -128 [3] - Plastic (L) has a 4.24% 主力基差率, down -1.36% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 283, 次月基差 of 259, and 再次月基差 of 230 [3] - PVC (V) has a -4.9% 主力基差率, down -0.53% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -201, 次月基差 of -316, and 再次月基差 of -411 [3] - Rubber (RU) has a -0.29% 主力基差率, up 0.57% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -45, 次月基差 of -5, and 再次月基差 of -640 [3] - 20 - Rubber (NR) has a 4.55% 主力基差率, up 0.37% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 480, 次月基差 of 375, and 再次月基差 of 215 [3] - Soda Ash (SA) has a -4.9% 主力基差率, unchanged from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -50, 次月基差 of -111, and 再次月基差 of -154 [3] - Urea (UR) has a -1.24% 主力基差率, up 0.49% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -22, 次月基差 of 4, and 再次月基差 of 1 [3] - Pulp (SP) has a 2.85% 主力基差率, down -0.70% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 153, 次月基差 of 115, and 再次月基差 of -21 [3] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC) has a -5.5% 主力基差率, down -0.23% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -28.8, 次月基差 of -33.4, and 再次月基差 of -37.6 [3] - Fuel Oil (FU) has a 5.08% 主力基差率, down -0.75% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 141, 次月基差 of 167, and 再次月基差 of 189 [3] - Asphalt (BU) has a -1.97% 主力基差率, down -0.70% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -78, 次月基差 of -59, and 再次月基差 of -12 [3] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) has a 1.15% 主力基差率, down -0.52% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 43, 次月基差 of 22, and 再次月基差 of -41 [3] - LPG (PG) has a 22.14% 主力基差率, up 0.12% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 729, 次月基差 of 1055, and 再次月基差 of 743 [3] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF) has a 0.12% 主力基差率, down -0.05% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 1.7, 次月基差 of 5.9, and 再次月基差 of 45.7 [3] - SSE 50 (IH) has a -0.05% 主力基差率, up 0.10% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of -0.5, 次月基差 of -1.7, and 再次月基差 of 2.1 [3] - CSI 500 (IC) has a 0.27% 主力基差率, down -0.01% from yesterday, with a 当月基差 of 6.1, 次月基差 of 21.9, and 再次月基差 of 139.9 [3]