对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，特朗普表示已与北约就格陵兰岛问题达成共识，将不会兑现原定对欧洲 八国实施加征关税政策，市场避险情绪降温，金银回落一度拖累铜价向下调整，此外，高铜价持续拖累 国内需求，洋山铜溢价最低跌至20美金附近，创近1年半以来最低；基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产进 程缓慢，全球显性库存继续增加，国内累库速率加快，整体预计铜价短期将转入调整，但在基本面结构 性时候的背景下，调整幅度或较为有限。 （文华综合） 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情略有转暖，收盘上涨0.28%。由于铜价高企，此前精废价差拉大，废产阳 极铜的产量增加，12月中国精铜产量继续增加，助力全年产量再创纪录，最近宏观面情绪反复，全球铜 库存回升，利多消息有限，铜价高位调整。 国家统计局数据显示，中国12月精炼铜产量为132.6万吨，同比增加9.1%。1-12月累计产量为1,472.0万 吨，同比增长10.4%，近些年由于国内冶炼产能持续扩张，叠加冶炼厂优化原料结构，精炼铜产量继续 增加。 此前由于市场担忧美国未来仍会对精炼铜加征关税，美国对于全球铜的虹吸效应仍在延续，当前 COMEX铜库存已经升至55万短吨之上，超过50万吨。此前得益于全球 ...

Group 1 - The core driving force behind gold prices surpassing $4,800 per ounce is the ongoing accumulation of gold by global central banks, exemplified by Poland's plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons [1] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves to 7.415 million ounces as of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of accumulation, indicating a strategic direction towards optimizing international reserve structures and cautiously promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] - Geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties have acted as catalysts for market movements, with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to a criminal investigation into its chairman and renewed trade tensions following tariff announcements by the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of rising market risk aversion and long-term structural support factors, with short-term triggers linked to geopolitical events [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and the narrative of long-term "de-dollarization" are contributing to the macroeconomic backdrop supporting gold prices [1] - From a funding perspective, gold ETFs and central bank purchases are providing medium to long-term support, while short-term fluctuations are occurring near key technical levels [2]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices fell below the support level of $4800 due to a decrease in market risk appetite following Trump's change in stance on Greenland [2] - Trump announced the cancellation of threatened tariffs on European countries, indicating a framework for future agreements regarding Greenland, which may ease trade tensions [2] - Despite the temporary agreement, underlying distrust between the US and Europe remains, with geopolitical and economic risks still present [2] - Technically, gold has not broken below the moving average support, indicating potential for further price movement [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is currently in a state of adjustment, with geopolitical risks providing less support to oil prices, while oversupply remains a significant issue [3] - The IEA's latest report predicts a slight increase in global oil demand, with growth expected to rise from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day this year [3] - Global oil supply growth has been adjusted to 2.5 million barrels per day, up from a previous forecast of 2.4 million barrels per day, but still lower than last year's 3 million barrels per day [3] - Technically, oil prices are experiencing small upward movements but face resistance above, indicating potential for long-term volatility [3] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index has shown weakness recently, with improved US-EU relations failing to provide strong support due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The market expects a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in January, with expectations for rate cuts to begin in June [4] - Core PCE inflation in the US has risen to 2.8%, above the 2% target, which may justify the Fed's decision to maintain current rates in the short term [5] - The dollar index is experiencing a short-term bullish trend but faces long-term bearish pressures due to expected rate cuts [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has closed with a bullish candle, indicating a potential reversal from previous downward trends, with clear support at lower levels [6] - The price has re-entered a previous trading range, suggesting a trend reversal may be underway [6] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown small fluctuations but are likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with a potential downward continuation pattern forming [7] - Short-term support is noted at $5.60, indicating a critical level to watch for price movements [7]

1月22日亚市早盘，国际金银市场遭遇回调，黄金再度失守4800美元关口。 截至1月22日12时左右，黄金白银一度高位跳水，伦敦金现报4793.99美元/盎司，日内跌幅0.82%；伦敦现货白银早盘走跌，截至发稿短线反 弹，现站上93美元/盎司关口，此前一度 跌超3%。 | | 豊金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 年初至今 | | GFEX铂 | 625.80 | -13.95 | -2.18% | 18.69% | | 上海银 | 22822 | -434 | -1.87% | 34.22% | | 上海金 | 1074.09 | -14.42 | -1.32% | 10.35% | | SGEइस् 9999 | 1073.75 | -14.06 | -1.29% | 10.14% | | COMEX黄金 | 4789.2d | -48.3 | -1.00% | 10.55% | | COMEX微型黄金 | 4789.0d | -48.5 | -1.00% | 10.53% | | COMEX M-黄金 | ...

Group 1 - The international gold market continues to rise, with spot gold prices historically breaking through the $4800 per ounce mark, reaching a new market high [1] - As of January 21, the daily increase in spot gold exceeded 1.62%, and the cumulative increase since the beginning of 2026 surpassed 10%, significantly impacting domestic gold investment and consumption markets [1] - The prices of both investment gold and brand gold jewelry have risen in tandem, affecting ordinary consumers [1] Group 2 - The price of gold jewelry in China has surpassed 1500 yuan, currently reported at 1506 yuan per gram, with notable increases from January 20 [2] - Specific brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, Zhou Sheng Sheng, and Lao Miao have reported price increases of 42 yuan, 41 yuan, and 38 yuan per gram respectively since January 20 [2][5][7] Group 3 - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising market risk aversion and long-term structural support factors, with short-term triggers linked to geopolitical events such as those in Greenland [9] - The current price increase aligns with macroeconomic narratives including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global "de-dollarization" trends, and continued accumulation by multiple central banks [9] - Despite potential short-term volatility, the core logic supporting gold prices remains solid, highlighting its strategic value as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [10]

技术面来看，美元兑瑞郎短期反弹趋势明确，打破前期下行通道压制，整体处于低位回升后的震荡整理 阶段。价格当前围绕0.7950一线博弈，日内上方关键阻力位关注0.7965早盘高点，若能有效突破，将进 一步测试0.8005重要整数关口，该位置为短期趋势反转的关键节点，突破后汇价有望延续反弹至0.8145 附近。下方支撑需重点留意0.7940近期整理平台，该位置为反弹过程中的重要支撑位，若回落跌破，短 线可能下探0.7875前期低位，若该支撑失守，汇价或重回下行趋势，进一步下探0.7835附近目标。从技 术指标来看，短期动量指标拐头向上，多头动能逐步释放，震荡类指标脱离超卖区域并向中性偏多区间 移动，印证当前汇价的反弹态势，但若反弹至关键阻力位后量能不足，或出现技术性回调。 整体而言，美元兑瑞郎受避险情绪降温及美元偏强支撑，短期反弹格局确立，目前处于高位震荡蓄势阶 段。地缘风险缓释成为当前汇价上行的核心驱动，而美瑞货币政策分化预期则为美元提供中期支撑。后 续若美国核心经济数据超预期走强，将助力汇价突破上方阻力，延续反弹走势；若地缘局势出现反复或 美国数据疲软，避险情绪回流将推动瑞郎反弹，令汇价承压回调。操作上需关注0 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：地缘冲突缓和，铜价震荡整理 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢：印尼能矿部表示将2026年镍矿RKAB配额调整至2.5亿至2.6亿吨，利多靴子落地，后市可继续关注印尼修改HPM公式等政策方向。不过印尼淡 水河谷表示其配额不难满足三大HPAL项目原料需求，企业与政府之间的博弈可能仍会影响后市RKAB政策走向。但向前看，镍市基本面缺乏进一步矛盾， 配额收紧预期前期已price-in，短期方面关注有色板块市场情绪氛围，中长期关注印尼RKAB配额补充变更情况。 操作上，镍不锈钢区间操作。沪镍2603参考区间130000-150000元/吨。SS2603参考区间13500-15500元/吨。 重要声明：本资讯由期货公司研究发展部分析师团队完成，资讯中的信息均来源于公开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S. and Denmark, particularly regarding Greenland, have led to significant financial decisions by Danish and Swedish pension funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies away from U.S. debt due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and policy risks [3][4][5]. Group 1: Danish Pension Fund Actions - Akademiker Pension, Denmark's largest pension fund, announced the liquidation of approximately $100 million in U.S. Treasury holdings, influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline [3][4]. - The Chief Investment Officer of Akademiker Pension acknowledged that while the decision was based on long-term credit analysis, the current geopolitical climate made the decision easier [3]. Group 2: Broader European Trends - Following Denmark, Sweden's largest pension fund, Alecta, reportedly sold off the majority of its U.S. Treasury holdings, amounting to approximately $7.7 billion to $8.8 billion, citing increased policy risks and unpredictability in the U.S. [5]. - The Peter G. Peterson Foundation reported that the U.S. federal government is projected to add approximately $2.25 trillion in new debt over a 12-month period starting January 2025, highlighting concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [5]. Group 3: Global Investment Sentiment - The total foreign holdings of U.S. securities have surpassed $30.9 trillion, with European investors holding about $8 trillion, indicating a significant reliance on U.S. debt [6]. - Deutsche Bank's research suggests that if Europe decides to "weaponize" capital, it could escalate tensions beyond tariffs to direct impacts on U.S. debt markets, posing risks to both U.S. and European economies [7]. Group 4: China's Strategic Shift - China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries have decreased to $682.6 billion, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting a strategic shift away from U.S. debt due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and the need for diversification [8]. - Concurrently, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 74.15 million ounces, indicating a move towards asset diversification and a potential strategy for internationalizing the yuan [8]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The decision by Danish pension funds to sell U.S. debt is seen as a symbolic move that could trigger broader market reactions, with investors increasingly wary of U.S. assets [9]. - The ongoing geopolitical and financial risks are expected to intensify as the U.S. midterm elections approach, potentially reshaping global capital flows and investment strategies [7][9].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月21日消息，关于黄金和白银的价格走势，贵金属交易商贺利氏贵金属中国交易部门预计，黄金价格 短期料在4500-5000美元/盎司区间波动，白银价格短期料在85-105美元/盎司区间波动。 贺利氏方面表示，近期，伦敦金一路上涨屡创新高，近期已冲破4800美元/盎司关口。开年，特朗普强 硬的扩张性外交政策再度加剧市场避险情绪，对格陵兰岛的表态也引发了欧盟的不满，双方互以加征关 税和抛售美债为条件进行博弈。同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在卸任前遭遇司法挑战，市场对美联储独立性 担忧加剧。两者叠加推动投资者继续购买黄金。全球格局的不确定性，或许导致黄金价格依旧易涨难 跌。近期，伦敦白银也震荡走高，创下接近95.9美金/盎司的历史新高，目前投资热情依旧高涨，各地 的投资银条升水居高不下，全球库存也被ETF白银持仓占用，市场依旧紧俏。但价格指标显示严重超 买，短期波动风险增加。（刘丽丽） 贺利氏方面表示，近期，伦敦金一路上涨屡创新高，近期已冲破4800美元/盎司关口。开年，特朗普强 硬的扩张性外交政策再度加剧市场避险情绪，对格陵兰岛的表态也引发了欧盟的不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have experienced a significant surge since the beginning of the year, with silver outperforming gold, reaching a historical high of over $94, and increasing more than twofold compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Silver and Gold Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio, which indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to purchase one ounce of gold, is currently around 50, suggesting that silver is in a strong position relative to gold [3] - A rising gold-silver ratio typically indicates strong market risk aversion or pessimism about economic prospects, while a declining ratio suggests increased market risk appetite and optimism about economic growth [4][5] Group 2: Factors Supporting Silver's Price Increase - The narrative of silver as a "green metal" continues, driven by long-term structural demand from sectors like photovoltaics, providing growth momentum that gold does not possess [7] - Historical data shows that the gold-silver ratio has the potential to decrease further, with extreme bull market periods seeing the ratio drop below 30, indicating room for continued compression [7] Group 3: Price Projections and Market Sentiment - In a bullish scenario, silver prices could exceed $120, but the current rapid increase may be driven by short-term speculation, which could lead to a significant correction if profit-taking occurs [9] - The influx of funds into precious metals may be weakening as investors assess the duration of supply constraints, and rising silver prices could impact its industrial applications, prompting companies to seek alternatives [9]