Economic Recovery - In January-February, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up by 0.7 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, but this is an improvement of 3 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a nearly one-year high[6] Trade and Tariff Impact - The ongoing increase in U.S. tariffs has extended the "export rush" effect, supporting inventory replenishment and order increases for enterprises[2] - The upcoming U.S. tariff investigation results are expected to significantly impact global trade order and suppress market risk appetite[11] - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, with the Markit manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8 in March, indicating a contraction[18] Market Trends - The equity market has seen a shift in style, with technology stocks experiencing notable adjustments and a reduction in trading volume, indicating a convergence of market divergence[2] - Risk appetite in the market is declining, with gold prices expected to remain high due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic cooling in the U.S.[22] - The performance of dividend and consumer sectors has been relatively strong as investors seek opportunities outside of technology stocks[11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's export market, particularly focusing on the "rush to export" phenomenon and its potential continuation or conclusion in light of recent trade dynamics and economic conditions [2][3][4]. Export Performance - In January-February, China's dollar-denominated exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline from 9.9% in the previous quarter, primarily due to temporary factors such as fewer working days and the early timing of the Spring Festival [2][3]. - Exports to Russia, South Korea, and Africa decreased by 10.9%, 2.6%, and 0.2% respectively, while exports to the U.S. and transshipment trade remained relatively strong [3]. "Rush to Export" Analysis - The article questions whether the "rush to export" has ended and explores its potential duration. Historical context from 2018-2019 indicates that the onset of trade tensions led to significant export activity as U.S. companies sought to stockpile goods [6][11]. - The current "rush to export" is expected to be shorter and less intense than in previous trade conflicts, with an estimated duration of around 6 months due to higher initial inventory levels and rapid implementation of tariffs [11][12]. Inventory Dynamics - The article highlights that the passive inventory replenishment observed in U.S. manufacturers and wholesalers is influenced by the current economic climate, with certain sectors like electrical and electronic products showing significant room for inventory buildup [12][13]. - The inventory-to-sales ratios for various durable goods indicate that while some sectors are experiencing high sales growth, their inventory levels are relatively low, suggesting ongoing demand for exports from China [13]. Future Outlook - The article anticipates that China's export growth may rebound after temporary factors subside, with expectations of sustained resilience in export performance through the first half of the year [4][10]. - However, potential risks such as further tariff increases or unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy could impact future export trends [11].

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in exports in January-February is primarily attributed to the end of the "export rush" rather than weak external demand, with the Spring Festival misalignment having a lesser impact [2][10][11] Export Data Analysis - January-February exports decreased by 8.4 percentage points compared to December, dropping to 2.3%, partly due to the Spring Festival misalignment, which is estimated to have reduced the growth rate by approximately 1.5 percentage points [2][10][11] - The end of the "export rush" is more pronounced, particularly in exports to the U.S., which fell by 12.5 percentage points to 3.2%, and to emerging markets, indicating a slowdown in the restructuring of overseas supply chains [2][11][12] - Specific categories that experienced significant declines include high-dependence goods like footwear, which saw a drop of 18.0 percentage points to -18.7%, and general machinery, which fell by 30.6 percentage points to -1.6% [3][12][16] Import Data Analysis - Imports in January-February saw a substantial decline of 9.4 percentage points to -8.4%, primarily due to a drop in both processing trade-related electromechanical products and bulk commodities reflecting weak domestic demand [7][18] - Electromechanical product imports rebounded slightly but were still negatively impacted by integrated circuits, which fell by 7.3 percentage points to 2.3% [18] Future Outlook - The Spring Festival misalignment is expected to continue affecting year-on-year growth rates, with a potential rebound in March exports estimated to increase by 6.6 percentage points due to this effect, outweighing the negative impacts from the end of the "export rush" and tariff imposition [4][14] - However, actual exports in March may still face significant pressure when excluding the Spring Festival effect [5][14] Structural Changes in Exports - There is a noticeable divergence in export performance across different categories, with consumer electronics like mobile phones and integrated circuits showing recovery, while textiles and furniture exports have significantly declined [15][16] - Capital goods exports have generally decreased, with notable declines in general machinery and automotive parts, while some intermediate goods like fertilizers have shown a rebound [16]