1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak position as the restocking phase has ended, but the decline after the new grain harvest is expected to be less than last year. Short - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; long - term, consider low - buying when the futures price falls below cost [1][2]. - The oil market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but is likely to strengthen in the medium term due to factors such as increased demand for palm oil and soybean oil from overseas biodiesel, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [6]. - The protein meal market will continue to fluctuate within a range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises should buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7]. - The pig market is in a low - level oscillation. Before the National Day, the inventory will be gradually released, and the spot and near - month prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract is supported by the expectation of capacity reduction, presenting a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - The natural rubber market has no obvious short - term drivers and will maintain range - bound trading, with a short - term upward bias [12]. - The synthetic rubber market will maintain range - bound trading, and the short - term price is expected to rise slightly and the market may be strong [13]. - The cotton market has support but lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. - The sugar market is in a downward trend. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new season, the price is expected to be weak; in the short term, it will fluctuate within the range of 5550 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market has unclear core drivers and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - The log market is in a weak oscillation. Technically, it is in a downward trend, but the supply will ease in the future, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oil**: Due to pessimistic demand expectations, US soybeans fell on Tuesday while US soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market continued to fluctuate. Factors such as the US soybean's reduced excellent - rate, the impact of Sino - US trade relations on export demand, and the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil were considered. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, and the inventory increase of Malaysian palm oil in August may be limited. The short - term outlook is for continued oscillation and adjustment, and the medium - term outlook is for a strong trend [6]. - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by weather and Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean excellent - rate has decreased, and the 9 - month supply - demand report may lower the yield per unit. The domestic market has limited room for price decline, and the demand is expected to increase steadily. The outlook is for range - bound trading [7]. - **Corn/Starch**: The domestic corn price is generally stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The wheat substitution may decrease. The short - term outlook is to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and the long - term outlook is to consider low - buying [1][9]. - **Pig**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The demand is affected by temperature changes, and the inventory is gradually being released. The market shows a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. There are some positive factors such as the approaching seasonal rise period, but the short - term upward space is limited [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the natural rubber market and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The short - term price is expected to rise slightly [13]. - **Cotton**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar supplies are increasing, and the price is under downward pressure. The long - term outlook is for a weak trend, and the short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the core driver of the futures is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Log**: The spot price is falling, and the market is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure will ease in the future, and the market may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the monitored varieties including oilseeds, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided [21][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for the expected price trends of varieties, including strong, oscillating - strong, oscillating, oscillating - weak, and weak, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases on September 3, 2025 [172]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 3, 2025, the agricultural product index had a daily decline of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 0.13%, a 1 - month decline of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.74% [174].

Report Core View - Ukraine has increased export taxes on soybeans and rapeseed, and the export tax will last until January 1, 2030, then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [1] - Two cold fronts are expected to sweep across the United States this week, bringing scattered showers, and the temperature will drop again after the cold fronts pass. As of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina occurring in Brazil in spring has increased, which may lead to drought in the south and affect soybean production. Brazilian farmers have sold less than 20% of the new-season soybeans, slower than in previous years [1] - In August, India's palm oil imports increased by 16% month-on-month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 355,000 tons, hitting the lowest level in six months [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports grew strongly in August, with different data sources showing growth rates of 30.53%, 15.37%, and 10.2% respectively [2] Summary by Directory Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oils - Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed, which will be adjusted in the future [1] - Cold fronts in the US may affect soybean growth, and the current good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina in Brazil may affect soybean production, and Brazilian farmers are delaying soybean sales [1] Palm Oils - India's palm oil imports increased significantly in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% [2] - Indian traders predict that palm oil and soybean oil imports in September will remain at relatively high levels [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports showed strong growth in August [2]

Core Viewpoint - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates a potential return of the La Niña phenomenon starting from September, which may influence global weather and climate conditions in the coming months, despite many regions still experiencing above-average temperatures [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **La Niña Phenomenon**: The La Niña phenomenon, characterized by a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, may re-emerge from September 2023 [1] - **Current Conditions**: Since March 2025, neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) have persisted, with a low probability of El Niño occurring between September and December [1] - **Temperature Expectations**: Despite the potential return of La Niña, temperatures in many areas of the Northern Hemisphere and a large part of the Southern Hemisphere are expected to remain above average from September to November [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and potential arbitrage opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. It also presents data on international and domestic supply - demand dynamics and macro - economic indicators both internationally and domestically [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of multiple futures contracts, such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, and US soybeans, are presented. Currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index and various currency pairs, are also provided [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are reported. Additionally, CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are given [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions - The future weather outlook (September 7 - 11) for major US soybean - producing states shows mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and uneven precipitation. The possible return of La Niña from September may affect global weather patterns and crop production, with a 55% chance of equatorial Pacific sea - surface temperatures dropping to La Niña levels from September to November [3][5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month, while its export volume showed an increase. Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28%. EU imports of palm oil, soybeans, and other agricultural products in the 2025/26 season decreased compared to the previous year. Ukraine has started winter sowing and imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed. The Baltic Dry Index dropped to a more than one - week low [7][8][10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On September 2, the total trading volume of domestic oils increased significantly. The开机 rate of domestic oil mills decreased, and the port inventory of soybean oil increased. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased slightly [13][14]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 90.5%. US manufacturing PMI and construction spending data were released. Argentina's finance ministry will intervene in the foreign exchange market. Eurozone CPI data for August was announced [16]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On September 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased, and the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal. The central bank also announced the liquidity injection of various tools in August [18]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On September 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 20.739 billion yuan, with 1.087 billion yuan in commodity futures (including a net outflow of 757 million yuan in agricultural product futures, an inflow of 45 million yuan in chemical futures, an outflow of 472 million yuan in black - series futures, and an inflow of 2.271 billion yuan in metal futures) and 19.651 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Internationally, the high excellent rate of US corn in the early growth stage keeps the output outlook high, continuously pressuring international corn prices. Domestically, with the continuous auction of imported corn, the transaction rate and premium have decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. The high - temperature weather in summer is unfavorable for grain storage, increasing traders' shipping enthusiasm and slightly increasing market grain sources. Wheat has an obvious feed substitution advantage, reducing corn feed demand. Corn futures prices have recently fallen from high - level oscillations, showing overall weakness [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, significantly reducing supply pressure. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and downstream demand has entered the traditional off - season, with slightly slower downstream pick - up. Supply and demand remain loose. Recently, starch has also shown overall weak oscillations due to the decline in corn prices [2][3]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2302 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2647 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - Corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 64 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 38 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. - Corn futures holding volume (active contract) is 1017804 hands, down 13096 hands; corn starch futures holding volume (active contract) is 255773 hands, up 7909 hands. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 13789 hands, up 17113 hands; for corn starch are - 13753 hands, down 4247 hands. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 194126 hands, down 2353 hands; for corn starch are 18899 hands, down 3080 hands. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 412.25 cents/bushel, down 4.25 cents. - CBOT corn total holding is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts. - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2417.45 yuan/ton, down 4.12 yuan. - The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average import cost of imported corn is 1884.32 yuan/ton, down 1.15 yuan. - The international freight for imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main corn contract is 115.45 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 53 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; deep - processing corn inventory is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons. - The monthly import volume of corn is 353.19 tons, down 17 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons. - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons. - The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.7 tons, up 2.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The average feed corn inventory days of samples is 31.58 days, down 0.38 days. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.14%, down 1.06%. - The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Hebei is - 8 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; in Jilin is - 73 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.58%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, down 0.01%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - US President Trump announced on the 9th that starting from August 1st, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all goods imported from Brazil, which will have a major impact on the agricultural product trade between the two countries. - Brazilian agricultural meteorological agency Rural Clima said that due to the prediction of a possible La Nina phenomenon by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on July 10th, Brazil's new crop sowing season may be affected by La Nina, but the climate may return to a neutral state after spring. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market - expected 73%, 73% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in China, including record high temperatures and heavy rainfall, attributed to climate change and the behavior of the subtropical high-pressure system [1][5][9]. Group 1: Extreme Weather Trends - China has experienced the hottest June on record, with extreme heat and heavy rainfall occurring simultaneously in different regions [1]. - The National Climate Center reports a general increase in extreme heat records and rainfall intensity across most regions in China over the past few decades [1][5]. - The average annual warm days in China have increased by approximately 6.7 days every decade, indicating a lengthening of the warm season [5]. Group 2: Climate Change Impacts - The article highlights that global warming is a significant factor contributing to the observed warming and increased humidity in northern China [5][9]. - The average relative humidity in Beijing has risen by 5% from 2013-2022 compared to 2003-2012, indicating a trend towards a warmer and more humid climate [3][4]. - The subtropical high-pressure system's behavior has changed, leading to earlier and more intense heat waves in northern regions [7][8]. Group 3: Weather Forecasting Challenges - There is a discrepancy between reported temperatures and public perception due to differences in measurement standards and personal experiences of weather [2]. - Future weather forecasts may increasingly focus on "feels-like" temperatures rather than just air temperature, addressing public concerns more effectively [2]. Group 4: Regional Weather Patterns - The article describes how the subtropical high-pressure system influences weather patterns, causing drought in some areas while leading to heavy rainfall in others, creating a "drought in a large area, flood in a narrow line" phenomenon [6][10]. - The intensity and frequency of localized extreme rainfall events are increasing, with significant implications for flood management and infrastructure [10][11]. Group 5: Adaptation and Preparedness - The article emphasizes the need for improved disaster preparedness and water resource management in light of increasing extreme weather events [12]. - It suggests that alongside disaster mitigation, there should be a focus on utilizing rainfall during flood seasons for water conservation in drier months [12].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a La Niña event occurring this year has decreased according to Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) [1] Group 1 - ESNZ's assessment indicates a reduced probability of La Niña, which may have implications for weather patterns and agricultural sectors [1]

Weather Conditions - Continuous rainfall has been the main feature in Hangzhou since the onset of the plum rain season, with temperatures remaining relatively low, peaking at only 24.2°C [1] - The weather is expected to remain rainy, with significant rainfall forecasted for the upcoming days, including potential heavy rain and localized storms with accumulations of 20-40 mm, and some areas experiencing over 100 mm [2][3] Typhoon Forecast - A tropical disturbance in the South China Sea is likely to develop into the first typhoon of the year, named "Butterfly," expected to make landfall in southern China between June 13-14 [2][3] - The typhoon is anticipated to bring more rainfall than wind, necessitating preparations for both the typhoon and heavy rain in affected regions [3] Seasonal Rainfall Patterns - This year's rainy season in Zhejiang is characterized by a pattern of less rain early on and more later, with a higher risk of disasters during the plum rain period [6] - The average temperature in Zhejiang has been 1.1°C higher than the historical average, with significant rainfall recorded in early June, particularly in central and northern regions [6] Flood Preparedness - Zhejiang has implemented extensive flood prevention measures, including the appointment of 46,000 flood responsibility personnel and inspections of nearly 270,000 key points for potential issues [7] - The province is preparing for 3 to 5 typhoons this year, which is above the historical average, with the most significant impacts expected from July to September [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 28, 2025, the rubber futures market tumbled, with the main natural rubber contract dropping 4.19% to 13,830 yuan/ton. The decline was due to increased supply expectations and weak demand. The report suggests not chasing short positions as the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices continued to adjust, with the CSI 1000 being strong in the morning and weakening at noon; the Hong Kong stock market opened higher and then oscillated lower. Technically, the index maintained a high - level weak oscillation pattern [6][7]. - The gold market has broken through a small platform, and the low point on May 15th can be considered the end of the adjustment. It is expected to reach the high point on May 9th. There is resistance at a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to buy rather than chasing the rise [9][10]. - For iron ore, due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments in May, there is a large supply surplus pressure. As domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, there is a high - valuation risk. Technically, it is recommended to adopt a bearish and oscillating view [13]. - For glass, demand growth depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introductions. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish outlook as the overall trend remains unchanged [16]. - For urea, with a domestic daily output of about 205,600 tons and an operating rate of about 87.23%, agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and downstream players are less involved. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment in the short term [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - Rubber Futures - On May 28, 2025, the natural rubber main contract fell 4.19% to 13,830 yuan/ton. Although short - term rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas affected supply and supported prices, after the rainy season, supply is expected to increase. The end of La Nina and expected ENSO neutrality in the Northern Hemisphere summer reduce the probability of extreme weather affecting production. On the demand side, the EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires and high inventory in tire factories may lead to weaker开工 rates [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The A - share market's three major indices continued to adjust, and the Hong Kong stock market opened high and then fell. Technically, the index maintained a high - level weak oscillation pattern [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The gold market has broken through a small platform, and the low point on May 15th can be considered the end of the adjustment. It is expected to reach the high point on May 9th. There is resistance at a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to buy rather than chasing the rise [9][10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments led to a large supply surplus. As domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, there is a high - valuation risk. Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today, and the trend is bearish [13]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Demand growth depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introductions. Technically, it oscillated lower today, and the overall bearish trend remains unchanged [16]. Technical Analysis - Urea - The domestic urea daily output is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23%. Agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and downstream players are less involved. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment in the short term [18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry in China, focusing on the impact of climate conditions on coal production and related agricultural activities. Core Insights and Arguments - **Drought Conditions**: In spring 2025, eastern and central China experienced varying degrees of drought, particularly in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Guangdong, with severe drought persisting in Gansu, Shaanxi, Henan, and southern Jiangsu. The average national precipitation from January 1 to May 11, 2025, was 110.76 mm, approximately 13% lower than the average of the past 30 years, marking the lowest level since 2011 [2][3][4] - **Climate Influences**: The reduced precipitation is attributed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which hindered moisture transport to eastern China. The La Niña phenomenon exacerbated the lack of precipitation during winter and spring [2][3][4] - **Future Weather Predictions**: For the upcoming weeks, moderate to severe meteorological drought is expected to continue in parts of northwest China and southern Jiangsu and Henan, while southern regions will experience increased rainfall, with some areas seeing precipitation levels 30% to 60% above normal [4][10] - **Extreme Weather Events**: The 2025 flood season (June to August) is anticipated to witness frequent extreme weather events, including both drought and flooding. Northern regions are expected to receive more rainfall, while southern areas will see less, leading to significant flooding risks in the Haihe, Yellow River, Liaohe, and Huaihe basins [10][11] - **Typhoon Activity**: An increase in the number and intensity of typhoons is expected this year, with one or two potentially impacting China. The paths of these typhoons will be influenced by the subtropical high-pressure system and the La Niña phenomenon [10][30] Additional Important Content - **Wind Events**: There has been a notable increase in strong wind events since winter 2025, posing challenges to agriculture, safety, and environmental protection. This is linked to significant atmospheric circulation patterns [5][6][21] - **Temperature Trends**: The summer of 2025 is projected to be warmer than average, with temperatures expected to rise by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius nationwide, particularly in the Yangtze River basin and southern regions, where temperatures may exceed 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal [4][35] - **Impact on Agriculture**: The ongoing drought and high temperatures are likely to adversely affect agricultural production, especially for winter wheat in severely impacted areas [4][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between climate conditions and the coal industry, as well as the broader implications for agriculture and weather patterns in China.