1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For corn: With the progress of US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting downward pressure on US corn prices. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, farmers' willingness to sell has slightly decreased, and the arrival volume of processing enterprises has dropped significantly, with some enterprises raising prices slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the harvest of new corn has been slow due to continuous rainfall, and the market is optimistic about the high - quality grain market, with purchase prices continuing to rise. The corn futures price has rebounded, but it is still recommended to sell on rallies due to the upcoming concentrated listing pressure [2]. - For corn starch: As the supply of raw corn increases, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the festival, the industry's operating rate has increased significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. The industry inventory remains high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch still exist, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Although the starch price has risen in tandem with the rebound of corn, the overall starch market is still in a bearish trend, and a bearish strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2144 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): 6 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1): 49 yuan/ton. Futures closing price of CBOT corn: 424 cents/bushel. Futures positions (active contract): 49071 hands for yellow corn, 849415 hands for corn starch. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 75401 hands for corn, - 59726 hands for corn starch. Registered warehouse receipts: 49324 hands for yellow corn, 12504 hands for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract: 317 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT: Total corn positions (weekly): 1543065 contracts, an increase of 13269 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of corn: - 51186 contracts, a decrease of 15017 contracts [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2259.41 yuan/ton, down 3.34 yuan; factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun: 2510 yuan/ton; flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2180 yuan/ton; import cost - insured and duty - paid price of corn: 1981.56 yuan/ton, down 0.79 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 0 US dollars/ton. Corn starch main contract basis: 130 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; corn main contract basis: - 9.34 yuan; Shandong starch - corn spread (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan [2] 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2458.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.73 yuan; cassava starch - corn starch spread (weekly): 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan; corn starch - 30 - powder spread: - 188 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [2] 3.5 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.44 million hectares, an increase of 0.55 million hectares; forecasted yield: 425.26 million tons. Forecasted sown area in Brazil: 131 million hectares; forecasted yield: 22.6 million tons. Forecasted sown area in Argentina: 53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 7.5 million tons. Forecasted sown area in China: 295 million hectares; forecasted yield: 44.3 million tons. Forecasted yield in Ukraine: 32 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 38.7 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 203.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.2 million tons. Corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 93 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 119.9 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons. Monthly import volume of corn: 4 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 14800 tons, a decrease of 1140 tons. Monthly feed production: 2927.2 million tons [2] 3.7 Downstream Situation - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 24.44 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 122.31 million tons, an increase of 3.04 million tons. Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 53.19%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 56.74%, an increase of 4.93 percentage points. Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan; in Hebei: 83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jilin: 47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] 3.8 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.14%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility: 6.83%. Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 10.36%, a decrease of 4.69 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options: 10.37%, a decrease of 4.68 percentage points [2] 3.9 Industry News - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is cautious about whether a La Nina phenomenon is currently forming. As of October 16, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 51%, compared with 45% a week ago and 48% in the same period last year. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture did not release the crop progress report, and market trading remained cautious [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the upcoming winter is expected to be colder than usual due to the dissipation of the effects from previous warm winters caused by the El Niño phenomenon, with a potential natural gas shortage in China after five years, positively impacting China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The La Niña signal appears to be strengthening, which could lead to a colder winter and a potential natural gas shortage in China [1] - Natural gas consumption in China is projected to accelerate from a 2% increase in summer to a 9% year-on-year growth this winter [1] Group 2: Company Outlook - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 10.25 for China Petroleum, rating the stock as "Overweight" due to significant profit upside potential [1] - The company is viewed as the preferred natural gas investment in China, benefiting from wholesale natural gas pricing reforms, reduced import costs, retail participation, and structural demand growth [1] - The natural gas business of China Petroleum, including exploration, production, distribution, and pipelines, is considered a utility asset, with expected natural gas profits potentially reaching about twice that of oil profits under oil prices between USD 60 to 65 per barrel [1]

大摩相信，中石油将仍是中国首选的天然气投资标的，因其批发端的天然气定价改革、进口成本下降、 零售的参与以及结构性需求增长。大摩将公司的天然气业务(勘探与生产、分销和管道)视为公用事业资 产，预计在油价介乎每桶60至65美元的背景下，明年中石油的天然气利润很可能达到石油利润的约两 倍。 大摩续指，拉尼娜信号似乎正在增强，如果真的出现，今个冬季可能变得更为寒冷，从而导致潜在的天 然气短缺。因此，天然气消费可能激增，批发和零售价格或上涨。今年冬季的天然气需求增长可能从今 夏的2%加速至同比增长9%。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，随着冬季即将来临，由厄尔尼诺现象造成的上两个暖冬影响已消退，因此即将 到来的冬天预期较以往更寒冷。此外，若拉尼娜信号(代表更冷的气候)持续增强，中国可能在久违五年 后，重新出现天然气短缺现象，中国石油股份(00857)或有显著的盈利上行空间，予该股目标价10.25港 元，评级"增持"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the macro - risk is partially reduced but still exists, waiting for the outcome of the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the three major oils are in a state of mixed long and short positions, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak but with limited downside space [1][29]. - In the medium to long term, palm oil is expected to show a strong trend after November. For soybean oil, the price should be treated with cautious optimism. For rapeseed oil, the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the biggest uncertainty [2][30]. - For the strategy, focus on the performance of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts in the ranges of 8150 - 8400, 9200 - 9600, and 9800 - 10000 respectively, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [2][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - **Short - term situation**: MPOB's September report was unexpectedly bearish, and October's high - frequency data showed continued production growth. The export demand of Malaysian palm oil weakened in the second half of October, causing the inventory to rise. However, the inventory accumulation period is coming to an end, and there are uncertainties in Indonesia's production and the progress of B50 is ahead of schedule, so the price trend in October is expected to have limited fluctuations and strengthen towards the end of the production season [5]. - **Malaysian situation**: MPOB's September report showed that the inventory reached a five - year high of 236000 tons. SPPOMA data indicated a 6.86% increase in production from October 1 - 15. ITS data showed that the export growth rate decreased in the second half of October. The inventory is expected to continue rising in October, but the inventory accumulation time is limited due to the upcoming traditional production - reduction season [6]. - **Indonesian situation**: In July, the inventory was at a relatively low level of 2.57 million tons. There are concerns about production decline due to the takeover of illegal plantations. The B50 biodiesel has completed non - road tests, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for palm oil by 3 - 4 million tons. The inventory in 2025 is expected to maintain a tight balance [9]. - **Domestic situation**: Due to pre - National Day stocking, palm oil stocks decreased slightly in September. The estimated arrivals in October and November are 230000 and 190000 tons respectively. After the National Day stocking, the inventory rebounded. As of October 17, the inventory was 575700 tons, and the short - term de - stocking is expected to be limited [11]. - **Medium - to - long - term outlook**: After November, the traditional production - reduction season begins in Southeast Asia. The La Nina phenomenon may intensify the production decline. The B50 - related positive news will continue to be released, and Indonesia may restrict exports. The domestic palm oil purchases after November are relatively low, and the de - stocking power increases during the peak season, which is conducive to the price increase in the fourth quarter [14]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term situation**: The market hopes for an improvement in US soybean export demand due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and the USDA's communication with South American countries. However, it is too early to conclude that the Sino - US trade dispute is resolved. The current export demand for US soybeans is still weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean oil supply in China is abundant. The short - term rebound of soybean oil is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [15]. - **US soybean situation**: In terms of production, the probability of a decrease in yield is high due to the drought in the main production areas. In terms of demand, the US soybean crushing volume in September reached a record high, but the export progress in the 25/26 season is far behind. The short - term rebound of US soybean 01 contract is limited, with the upper pressure level at 1050 - 1070 [16]. - **South American situation**: As of October 11, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season is relatively fast. Although the La Nina phenomenon exists, there is currently no short - term weather risk in the main production areas [20]. - **Domestic situation**: Since May, China's soybean arrivals have been above 10 million tons for five consecutive months, and the oil mills have maintained a high operating rate. As of October 17, the domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are at historical highs. The soybean arrivals from November to January are expected to be at normal levels, and the supply in the fourth quarter is not short [22]. - **Medium - to - long - term outlook**: There are potential positive factors such as an improvement in US soybean export demand, the implementation of US bio - fuel policies, a decrease in US soybean production, South American weather speculation, and a supply gap in the first quarter of 2026. The medium - to - long - term trend of soybean oil is cautiously optimistic [24]. Rapeseed Oil - **Policy impact**: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the main factor affecting the domestic rapeseed oil market. Since August, the import of Canadian rapeseed has been severely restricted, resulting in a significant decline in domestic rapeseed arrivals. The supply shortage before November is difficult to solve, and the supply situation may be partially alleviated after November, but the supply - demand tension remains [25][26]. - **Risk factor**: There is room for policy softening in Canada due to the high inventory and low price of rapeseed. The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China did not bring a breakthrough, and the short - term import of Canadian rapeseed remains restricted. The follow - up situation depends on the development of Sino - Canadian relations and the relaxation of processing restrictions on Australian rapeseed [27].

今天，A股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.63%，深证成指、创业板指数分别上涨 0.98%、1.98%。 沪深两市成交额17376亿元，较上一交易日缩量2005亿元。整个市场有超过4000只个股上涨，个股 涨跌幅的中位数为上涨1.03%。 今天，主要宽基指数都收出了阴十字星或假阴真阳线。当前，行情存在一个隐忧，那就是市场成交 继续缩量。 最典型的案例就是去年7月31日，证券板块指数当日大涨超5%。尽管之后市场展开调整，证券板块 也震荡回落，但回落的幅度有限，并在一个多月之后迎来了"924"行情。 当然，证券板块指数的"立柱"，也并不能表明市场不会震荡或调整。只不过，正是因为有了"立 柱"，会让我们对短期震荡或调整更加理性与积极。 从消息与市场角度来看，今天市场上涨有几个原因，比如周五收盘后港股指数大幅修复、海外大客 户近期上修2026年1.6T光模块采购计划。 在达哥看来，消息对市场的短期影响，其实并不影响中期格局，我们要做的是：操作理性淡定，心 态积极乐观。 板块方面，AI核心的"易中天"早盘跳空上涨，盘中涨幅在10%左右，带动AI方向集体反弹，这为市 场反弹提供了信心。不过，"易中天"等核心股 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a correction trend since October, particularly in technology stocks represented by the ChiNext and STAR Market, while the dividend style has returned, with the Shanghai Dividend Index rising by 5.6% as of October 20, marking its best monthly performance of the year [1] - The surge in the Shanghai Dividend Index is largely attributed to coal stocks, with the Shenwan Coal Index rising over 12% in October, leading all 31 Shenwan first-level industry indices, and outperforming the second-place banking index by 7 percentage points [1] - Major coal stocks such as Dayou Energy, Baotailong, Antai Group, and Zhengzhou Coal Electricity have seen significant monthly gains, with Dayou Energy leading the sector with a nearly 79% increase [1] Group 2 - The sudden strength of the coal sector in October is likely driven by expectations of a cold winter, as the strongest cold air mass of the year has been reported, leading to significant temperature drops across northern regions [2] - The NOAA has predicted the continuation of the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to strengthen cold winter expectations in China [2][3] - October is a critical period for coal stockpiling ahead of winter, with supply constraints due to safety inspections and reduced production, while demand remains strong due to winter preparation and speculative buying [4] Group 3 - Domestic thermal coal prices have been rising since hitting a low in May, with prices for major markets recently surpassing 600 yuan/ton [4] - However, there are expectations that the domestic thermal coal market may shift from strong to weak, with potential supply constraints due to increased safety inspections and a possible decrease in demand as prices rise [5]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with a notable lack of core positive factors driving the market, leading to a cautious sentiment among investors [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Recent natural rubber futures prices have shown a weak oscillation, with the spot market also declining; the price of Yunnan's full latex in the Shanghai market has dropped to 14,250 yuan/ton [1] - After the National Day holiday, the overall capital flow in the rubber futures market has been positive, but macro risk events continue to evolve, keeping the market under pressure [1] - The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China reached 742,000 tons in September 2025, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 20.85% and 11.75% respectively, maintaining a high import level [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new rubber has been slow due to adverse weather conditions, but the situation is expected to improve as the typhoon season ends and rainfall decreases in Southeast Asia, facilitating normal harvesting [1][3] - The tire market, a major downstream sector for natural rubber, is expected to weaken post-holiday, with domestic demand being sluggish while exports remain strong due to previous anti-dumping measures from the EU [2] - ANRPC forecasts a slight decline in global natural rubber production by 0.03% to 8.856 million tons for the first eight months of 2025, with consumption expected to drop by 0.6% to 10.146 million tons [3] Group 3: Price Outlook - The current low valuation of natural rubber and ongoing warehouse receipt cancellations suggest limited downward price movement, despite accelerated supply release [3] - The World Meteorological Organization has indicated a potential return of the La Niña phenomenon, which could lead to weather disruptions in Q4, potentially supporting a rebound in rubber prices if production decreases occur [3]

Group 1 - Recent natural rubber futures prices have shown a weak oscillation trend, with market participants exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment. The spot market has also weakened, with the price of Yunnan's all-latex in the Shanghai market dropping to 14,250 yuan/ton, and the willingness of holders to sell is not strong. Downstream demand is limited to minimal essential stockpiling, resulting in low transaction activity [1] - After the National Day holiday, the overall capital flow in the rubber futures market has shown an inflow trend, but macro risk events continue to unfold, leading to a lack of core bullish factors in the short term, keeping the market under pressure [1] - The weather disturbances from previous rains and typhoons have slowed the supply of new rubber, but with the typhoon season ending and improved weather conditions in Southeast Asia, the recovery of tapping work is expected to boost supply. Rainfall in Southeast Asia is forecasted to decrease in the coming weeks, which will benefit production [1] Group 2 - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber reached 742,000 tons, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 20.85% and 11.75%, respectively, maintaining a high import level. Cumulatively, from January to September, imports reached 6.115 million tons, an increase of over one million tons [2] - The tire market, a major downstream sector for natural rubber, is expected to weaken post-National Day holiday. The demand structure for semi-steel tires is showing divergence, with domestic demand weak and exports strong due to previous anti-dumping measures from the EU, but demand growth is expected to gradually return to normal levels [2] - Despite a recent recovery in tire manufacturers' operating rates, short-term raw material procurement demand remains limited due to pre-holiday stockpiling. The ANRPC forecasts a slight decline in global natural rubber production and consumption for the first eight months of 2025, with production in major producing countries like Thailand and China falling short of previous expectations [3]

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: October 15, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure from major sugar - producing countries in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, along with the recent sharp decline in crude oil prices and the rapid depreciation of the Brazilian real, have exerted significant pressure on sugar prices [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures were dragged down by the raw sugar, resulting in a significant decline, and the spot price also dropped significantly, indicating weak market demand and sugar mills' eagerness to clear inventory [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Futures Market Conditions**: On Monday, the New York raw sugar futures tumbled. The主力 March contract closed 3.29% lower at 15.57 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' December contract closed 1.4% lower at $444.00 per ton. SR601 closed at 5397 yuan per ton, down 77 yuan or 1.41%, with an increase of 32133 contracts in open interest. SR605 closed at 5370 yuan per ton, down 74 yuan or 1.36%, with an increase of 8310 contracts in open interest. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 15.57 cents per pound, down 0.53 cents or 3.29%, with a decrease of 26 contracts in open interest. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 15.13 cents per pound, down 0.49 cents or 3.14%, with an increase of 722 contracts in open interest [7]. - **Spot Market Conditions**: The spot prices in domestic production areas were lowered. The price of Nanning sugar was 5820 yuan, and that of Kunming sugar was 5710 yuan [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Sugar Mill Start - up**: As of now, 11 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started operation in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, and the last one is expected to start tomorrow. The price of white sugar of Inner Mongolia Lingyunhai in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season is 5850 yuan per ton, and the price of granulated sugar is 5950 yuan per ton [9]. - **Indian Sugar Exports**: India exported 775,000 tons of sugar in the 2024 - 25 market year (October 2024 to September 2025). The largest destination for Indian sugar exports was Djibouti with 146,000 tons, followed by Somalia with 135,000 tons, and Sri Lanka with 134,000 tons. The Indian government allowed a total export of 1 million tons of sugar in the 2024 - 25 market year on January 20, 2025 [9]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: A survey of 10 analysts showed that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September was expected to increase by 3.3% year - on - year to 40.12 million tons, and the sugar production was estimated to increase by 7.7% year - on - year to 3.05 million tons [9]. - **Weather Phenomenon**: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Climate Prediction Center under the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicated that La Niña might occur briefly before early December this year and last until February 2026, which often causes rainfall and floods in Asia, especially in India [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar futures' main contract [12][14][19][22].

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | | | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） 持仓量（张） ...