| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量环比降幅较大，但后期存在较快回升的预期。螺纹产量及表需均小幅下降，库 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 存继续增加。目前处于验证需求成色阶段，房地产及基建仍然偏弱，或拖累行情中期表 | | | | 现。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存继续增加，基本面相对平稳。钢材供需整体有宽松趋势， | | ★ | | 阶段性利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期仍有回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 铁水产量受阅兵影响环比明显减量，关注铁水修复情况。港口累库，钢厂短期补库需求 | | ★ | | 不强。外矿发到货双降，降幅较大，基本面好转。矿价震荡偏强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭第一轮提降落地。目前焦化利润尚可，后期产量预计会逐步恢复。铁水产量环比下 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 降，后期亦有回升预期。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，短期区间运行。 | | | | 前期受阅兵影响，焦煤产量环比明显回落，后期预期逐渐回升。蒙煤通关量处于较高水 | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看空 | 平，进口量高位运行。铁 ...

2025 年 9 月 8 日 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1094. 5 | -11.5 | -1.0% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1581.5 | -12.5 | -0.8% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 1185403 | 733627 | -12138 | | | | J2601 | 23549 | 46827 | 423 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1430 | 1450 | -20 | | | 焦煤 | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1176 | 1176 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 预期现实博弈，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 反内卷消息扰动提振市场情绪，黑色金属震荡上行，而铁矿石供需格局并未好转，矿石终端消耗 大幅回落，且钢厂利润不断收缩，需求利好效应趋弱，相对利好则是假期补库预期。与此同时，国内 港口到货迎来回升，且海外矿商发运高位攀升，即便内矿生产受限，矿石供应有所增加。综上，矿石 需求开始趋弱 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Report's Core View - The international oil price dropped overnight, and the SC11 contract fell 0.56% during the day. The increase in US EIA crude oil inventory last week and potential OPEC+ production increase may lead to a bearish supply-demand situation. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract and use out-of-the-money call options for protection [2] - Fuel oil futures continued to decline. The supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil eased, and high-sulfur fuel oil should be watched for potential geopolitical premium [3] - The asphalt futures price continued to decline, breaking through the previous support level. The supply-demand situation is expected to tighten marginally, and it's advisable to consider a long crack spread strategy [4] - The 9 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas remained stable. After the end of the off - season, it showed some resilience. The short - term futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, and the SC11 contract dropped 0.56% during the day. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. With potential OPEC+ production increase and demand weakening after the peak season, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil futures continued to decline. The third batch of quotas was issued later than expected. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) eased, with a significant drop in warehouse receipts today. The fundamental of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) lacks obvious drivers, but geopolitical conflicts in supply countries may bring premium [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price continued to decline, breaking through the previous support level of 3450 yuan/ton. The spot price decline was limited, and the basis continued to rise. The factory inventory removal was weak, and the social inventory continued to decline. Consider a long crack spread strategy [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the end of the gas off - season, it showed resilience. International market has a good bottom support due to strong East Asian chemical demand. The import cost and domestic demand increased, and the civil gas price was adjusted upwards. The short - term futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both increased, with soda ash futures rising by 0.46% and glass futures by 0.59%. The soda ash futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures also followed a similar pattern. Looking ahead, soda ash is expected to have a loose supply and stable demand, with prices remaining under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. For glass, the market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If there is a domestic follow - up interest rate cut, the market may see growth [6]. - For the SA2601 contract, it is recommended to trade in the range of 1280 - 1360, with stop - loss set at 1240 - 1380. For the FG2601 contract, it is advised to operate in the range of 1120 - 1220, with stop - loss at 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, soda ash futures first fell and then rose. The increase in soda ash production news in the first half of the week led to a sharp decline, but on Friday, the price increased significantly due to the sharp rise in glass prices. Glass futures also showed a similar trend, falling in the first half of the week due to poor fundamentals and recovering losses on Friday driven by the rise in coking coal prices and bullish market sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production have increased. However, due to the decline in profits, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, and production may slow down. The number of cold - repaired glass production lines has decreased by one, and the overall production remains at a low level. The profit of the glass industry continues to decline due to weak demand and falling spot prices. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased this week due to replenishment by major traders, but the de - stocking process is still volatile. For glass, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream deep - processing orders have increased slightly, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The overall inventory has started to accumulate again, but the de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The marginal growth of the automobile industry has weakened, and the probability of an interest rate cut is increasing [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For the SA2601 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1280 - 1360, with stop - loss set at 1240 - 1380. For the FG2601 contract, it is advised to operate in the range of 1120 - 1220, with stop - loss at 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both closed higher [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of soda ash has decreased this week, and the basis has strengthened. As of September 4, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market was reported at 1195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the basis was reported at - 82 yuan/ton. The spot price of glass has weakened, and the basis has strengthened, and it is expected to strengthen further in the future. As of September 4, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was reported at 1056 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the basis was reported at - 83 yuan/ton [12][16]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread between soda ash and glass has weakened this week, and it is expected to strengthen next week. As of September 4, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was reported at 138 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: This week, the domestic operating rate and production of soda ash have increased. As of September 4, 2025, the national operating rate of soda ash was reported at 86.52%, a month - on - month increase of 3.94%, and the national weekly production of soda ash was reported at 75.17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53%. However, the profit of soda ash has decreased, and the cost has increased. It is expected that the production capacity of soda ash will decline next week [24][29][31]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines has decreased by one, and the overall production remains unchanged. There are signs of rigid - demand production, and the profit continues to decline. It is expected that the production will remain at a low level next week. There are signs of production line resumption, and the production is expected to increase slightly next week, but the increase will be limited [31][36]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of September 4, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the joint - alkali process in China was - 48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 51 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1687 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 51 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1287 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton. The profit of glass enterprises has also decreased, mainly due to the decline in spot prices [34]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased this week, mainly due to replenishment by major traders. The inventory of glass enterprises has increased, and it is expected that the de - stocking speed will slow down next week. As of September 4, 2025, the enterprise inventory of soda ash was 182.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%, and the total inventory of glass was 63.05 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.77% [47][51]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream have increased slightly, but the demand remains low. As of August 15, 2025, the average number of order days for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures continued to rise this week, with the closing price of the main 2511 contract at 2,224 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US corn production forecast may be adjusted downward, while in the domestic market, the approaching new - season corn listing and sufficient reserves have led to weak market sentiment. The corn futures price rebounded due to short - covering [8]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher at low levels, with the closing price of the main 2511 contract at 2,519 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. During the new - old corn transition period, the industry's operating rate declined, supply pressure eased, and demand improved slightly, resulting in a decrease in inventory pressure. However, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand. The starch market rose under the influence of the corn price increase but was weaker than corn [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,224 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The US corn production forecast may be adjusted downward. In the domestic market, the approaching new - season corn listing, continuous reserve corn release, and sufficient enterprise inventories have led to weak market sentiment. The futures price rebounded due to short - covering [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure at the 60 - day moving average and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [8]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,519 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: During the new - old corn transition period, the industry's operating rate declined, supply pressure eased, and demand improved slightly, resulting in a decrease in inventory pressure. However, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand. The starch market rose under the influence of the corn price increase but was weaker than corn [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 11 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 915,637 lots, down 67,642 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a total position of 197,852 lots, down 11,035 lots from the previous week [16]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 59,080, with a decrease in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 46,611, with an increase in net short positions compared to last week [22]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 57,753 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 lots [28]. Spot Price and Basis - As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,360.59 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 136 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,900 yuan/ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 331 yuan/ton [33][37]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 20 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 24 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 11 - month contracts of starch and corn was 295 yuan/ton. In the 36th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. Substitute Spread - As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,425.78 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,360.59 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 65.19 yuan/ton. In the 36th week of 2025, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch continued to widen, with an average spread of 212 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous week [57]. 3. Industry Chain Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 73.5 tons, down 3.5 tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 112.7 tons, down 14.5 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 24 tons, down 3.1 tons week - on - week [47]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's ordinary corn import volume was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1,030,000 tons (94.5%) compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the previous month [65]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 4, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.63 days, down 0.5 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [69]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million [73]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 32.24 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 148.41 yuan/head [77]. - **Processing Profit**: As of September 4, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 110 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 396 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 680 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 257 yuan/ton [82]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 3, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85% [86]. - **Starch Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 515,500 tons, down 23,700 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 246,800 tons, down 17,100 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 47.7%, down 3.31% from the previous week. As of September 3, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.265 million tons, down 53,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2% [90]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of September 5, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.39%, a decrease of 1.31% from 10.7% in the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and decreased this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [93].

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,810.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,060.0 CNY, reflecting a 2.12% increase [1] - The supply side shows that the capacity utilization rate of China's high cis-butadiene rubber industry is around 75%, which is relatively high year-on-year [1] - Demand is supported by a slight decrease in finished product inventory among tire manufacturers, while overall inventory levels remain high [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of synthetic rubber is sufficient, but recent maintenance shutdowns in Shandong and East China may lead to a slight decrease in domestic supply [2] - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to improve next week as maintenance schedules are completed, although some companies are still facing production restrictions [2] - The BR2510 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,670 to 12,200 CNY [2]

Group 1: Core Advantages of Sina Finance APP - The Sina Finance APP excels in three dimensions: speed, comprehensiveness, and specialization, making it the optimal choice for most futures investors [3][11][15] - It provides 24/7 real-time updates on major global financial news, industry dynamics, and policy changes, enhancing the understanding of market impacts [3][6] - The APP integrates news, market data, and trading functionalities, allowing users to seamlessly transition from information gathering to decision-making [13][15] Group 2: Comparison with Competitors - Jin10 Data is favored by short-term traders for its data calendar and quick alerts but lacks depth in tracking specific domestic industries [4] - Wall Street News offers in-depth global macro and asset strategy analysis, suitable for long-term investors, but is less focused on commodity futures [5] - Zhito Finance is known for rapid updates on domestic policies and industry news but provides fragmented information that requires users to piece together insights [6] Group 3: Market Coverage and User Experience - The Sina Finance APP offers comprehensive coverage of all domestic commodity and financial futures with stable and accurate data [8][11] - It features professional charting tools and technical indicators, catering to both novice and experienced users [8][11] - The integration of market data and news enhances decision-making efficiency, creating a synergistic effect [11] Group 4: Trading Convenience and Security - The APP allows users to complete online account opening and fund binding directly within the platform, enhancing convenience [13] - It collaborates with top futures companies to ensure stable and smooth trading functionalities [13] - The APP addresses the disconnect between information consumption and trading execution, providing a one-stop experience for users [13][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - If Brazil's sugar production exceeds expectations or India relaxes sugar exports, raw sugar prices may test previous lows [4] - During the new sugar - cane crushing season transition period, with diversified supply and intensified competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar, the sugar market is expected to remain range - bound, but risks of declining import costs and unmet demand expectations should be watched [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Spot Prices - In Guangxi Nanning warehouse, the spot price per ton of sugar is 5980 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 416 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Kunming, the spot price is 5845 yuan, down 5 yuan, with a basis of 381 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 21 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Dali, the spot price is 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 286 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Shandong Rizhao, the spot price is 6030 yuan, down 20 yuan, with a basis of 366 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 6 yuan [4] Domestic Sugar Futures Prices - SR09 futures price is 5564 yuan, down 26 yuan, and the spread between SR09 and SR01 is 31 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - SR01 futures price is 5533 yuan, down 29 yuan [4] International Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real to the Chinese yuan is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee to the Chinese yuan is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar futures is 16.05, unchanged; the price of London white sugar futures is 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil futures is 67.39, unchanged [4]

2025 年 9 月 5 日 沥青：开工暴涨，库存观望（隆众增百川降） 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,468 | -2.31% | 3,461 | -0.20% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,442 | -2.77% | 3,432 | -0.29% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 128,082 | 26,904 | 70,861 | (22,224) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 189,510 | 91,521 | 237,670 | (4,424) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 69400 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日 ...