商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 PP：PDH 利润环比修复，趋势震荡偏弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6213 | -1.05% | 459440 | 10464 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -143 | | -159 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -27 | | -24 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华 北 | 6050 | | 6090 | | | | 华 东 | 6070 | | 6120 | | | | 华 南 | 6170 | | 6200 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面震荡，部分区域 ...

王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 22 日 沥青：低位震荡，关注地缘 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,909 | -1.46% | 2,940 | 1.07% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,924 | -1.52% | 2,955 | 1.06% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2602 | 手 | 327,221 | (83,194) | 217,948 | (6,744) | | | BU2603 | 手 | 85,332 | (38,860) | 128,904 | 5,416 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 54100 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆粕市场近强远弱、外弱内稳。国内豆粕库存虽处高位但已开始去化，现货压力有所 缓解。然而，远期合约面临巨大压力。一方面，国内进口大豆库存高企，油厂开机率维持高位；另一 方面，市场对一季度后南美大豆集中到港的预期强烈，远期供应压力不断强化。这导致市场呈现"近 强远弱"的结构，短期价格在成本支撑与供应压力下维持震荡偏弱运行，但中长期受制于全球丰产格 局，面临承压下行走势。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 ...

金投白银网提供今日白银期货价格走势_今天白银期货价格走势（2025年12月22日） 今日白银期货价格查询（2025年12月22日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 昨收价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 15959.00 | 15999.00 | 15340.00 | 15376.00 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情》 金投白银网(http://ag.cngold.org)为您提供最新白银期货价格、白银期货合约、白银期货交易以及白银期 货走势，更多白银期货行情敬请关注：白银期货专栏 备注：以上白银的价格仅供参考，请以官方报价为准。如对白银投资有疑问可咨询本站客服。 ...

期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年12月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块与基本面共振，走势震荡偏强 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪交织博弈，走势宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 780. 0 | 2. 5 | 0. 32% | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - Number Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market presents a complex situation with different investment outlooks for various soft commodities. Some commodities show potential for price increases or decreases, while others are in a state of balance. Investors should pay attention to supply - demand relationships, production data, and inventory changes for each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot sales basis was stable. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, supporting the market. Demand was stable in the off - season. As of November, commercial inventory was 468.36 million tons, and as of December 11, the cumulative processing volume was 579.4 million tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished - product inventory was low. The market was oscillating strongly, and industries could consider hedging opportunities. Operationally, it was advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production in the second half of November was neutral, and the season was ending. After the rainy season, less rainfall in the main production areas might lead to a decline in next year's sugarcane yield. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was also weak. In November, Guangxi's production was slow, and sugar output decreased year - on - year. However, due to good rainfall in the third quarter, the sugar output in the 25/26 season was expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price oscillated. In Shandong, cold - storage transactions were average, and the mainstream price was stable. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 712.7 million tons, a 12.78% year - on - year decrease, and the de - stocking volume was 7.09 million tons, a 33.86% year - on - year decrease. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. Apples had poor quality but high purchase prices, and the reluctance to sell might affect de - stocking. Demand was in the off - season, and the market was bearish. Operationally, a bearish approach was maintained [4] 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike, the futures prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber oscillated downward. The domestic natural rubber spot price fell, while the synthetic rubber price was stable. The global natural rubber supply was entering the production - reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. The tire operating rate in China decreased slightly, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 49.89 million tons, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 1.5 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased slightly. Demand weakened, and there were opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp oscillated. As of December 18, the inventory in Chinese mainstream ports was 199.3 million tons, a 2.1% month - on - month decrease. In November, China imported 324.6 million tons of pulp, a 44 - million - ton year - on - year increase. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, faced less pressure from warehouse receipts. The price difference between needle and broadleaf pulp was narrowing, and the external quotes of both increased. Paper mills' pulp purchases were mainly for immediate needs, and the paper price increase was weak. The market was highly competitive. Operationally, it was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Logs - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The external quote decreased, and the domestic price was weak, with a short - term decrease in arrivals. As of December 12, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 6.46 million cubic meters, a 3% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory in Haikou was 272 million cubic meters, a 5.56% month - on - month decrease. Low inventory supported the price, and operationally, it was advisable to wait and see [8]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 碳酸锂市场周报 需求稳定库存持降，锂价或将有所支撑 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 研究员:陈思嘉 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4 110000 120000 碳酸锂主力合约收盘价及持仓量 800000 来源：ifind 瑞达期货研究院 来源：ifind 瑞达期货研究院 截至2025年12月19日，碳酸锂近远月跨期价差为-1680元/吨，周环比增加220元/吨。 截至2025年12月19日，碳酸锂主力合约收盘价111400元/吨，周环比增加13680元/吨。 图1、碳酸锂主力合约收盘及持仓量 图2、碳酸锂跨期套利 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+14%，振幅16.58%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价111400元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，"十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求 明年金融总量保持合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。市场机构普遍预计明年降准、降息分别有0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows mixed trends with different products facing various supply - demand and price situations. Some products are under pressure due to factors like over - supply or weak demand, while others are supported by factors such as production cuts or policy impacts [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries by Product Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. Production enterprises faced weak sales and rising inventory pressure, while downstream demand was weak due to more polypropylene device shutdowns [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had a weak consolidation. Polyethylene had supply pressure from high - load production and slow inventory digestion, along with weak downstream demand. Polypropylene had weak cost support and demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had a weak run. Although import pressure decreased slightly and there were expectations of supply - demand relief, it would mainly oscillate at a low level. A long - short spread positive spread could be considered on dips in the medium - term [3] - Styrene futures closed lower with a narrow - range decline. Cost support was insufficient, and the market was weak due to slower de - stocking and expected supply growth [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose due to oil price rebound. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol rebounded but is still under long - term pressure. Short fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakened, and bottle chip's demand declined with over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures prices rose. Ports were de - stocking, and the market might be turning. Urea prices rose significantly. Indian import tenders boosted the market, and production enterprises were de - stocking [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to rise under macro - mood influence. Supply was high, and demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate with the macro - mood. Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Supply pressure was high, and it is also expected to follow the macro - mood [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose with high - level inventory and large supply pressure. It is expected to follow the macro - mood. Glass prices rose with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to have a slightly strong oscillation in the short - term [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-19 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1062元/吨，基差为-118元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5855.80万重量箱，较前一周增加0.57%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlook of oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the upward driving force is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The overall view is wide - range oscillation, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and lack of upward driving force [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is weakening, and their profitability has not improved, leading to weak ore demand and downward pressure on prices. At the same time, domestic port arrivals have increased significantly, and miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall ore supply remains high despite a contraction in domestic ore supply. Although there are short - term positive factors supporting the price to return to a high level, the continuous weakening of demand and high - level supply result in a poor fundamental situation. The price will continue to oscillate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]