1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There are concerns about inventory growth and weak December exports. It is oscillating around 4,100 ringgit, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures may weaken under the influence of Malaysian palm oil, with a possible decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan. - The market expects an increase in the US soybean ending inventory, which pressures CBOT soybeans and affects CBOT soybean oil. The decline of BMD palm oil also drags down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the decline of international related varieties has a greater impact on Dalian soybean oil. Factory开机率 has decreased, but the inventory change is not significant due to limited downstream demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Although large - scale enterprises still have significant sales pressure, the increasing demand for southern curing and the potential entry of secondary fattening may support prices. However, the overall large - scale production increase pattern remains unchanged. - The futures market is affected by a positive macro - atmosphere. Bullish funds are actively entering the market, and the futures may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [3]. 2.3 Meal and Bean Industry - The US soybean price is in a correction, and China's policy - based procurement is uncertain. The domestic meal market remains in a loose pattern, and the single - side price is under pressure. The key lies in whether US soybean purchases can meet the domestic arrival volume in March. The market outlook is weak, but the basis may strengthen [6]. 2.4 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures slightly increase, but the sufficient supply and weak demand in the spot market suppress the upward movement of futures prices. Brazil's sugar exports in early December increased. India's sugar production has increased significantly, and the overall raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a volatile and weak trend [9]. 2.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast region, the price is stable due to the support of inventory replenishment and policy procurement. In the north - central region, prices are firm due to the shortage of high - quality grains. On the demand side, some deep - processing enterprises are in deficit, and feed enterprises have low enthusiasm for long - term inventory building. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term, but the decline may be limited [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower. Traders are cautious before the USDA monthly supply - demand report. US cotton export sales increased significantly in the week ending November 6. Domestically, the hedging pressure on Zhengzhou cotton is increasing, but the rigid demand from the industrial downstream and the good profit situation of textile enterprises may limit the downward space. The cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply side still has significant pressure, with a high inventory of laying hens and slow decline. The demand side lacks obvious positive factors, but the positive market sentiment provides some support. Egg prices are expected to be weak with limited downward space [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 0.44% to 8,230 yuan, and the basis increased by 10.78% to 370 yuan. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.57% to 8,690 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 0.73% to 8,706 yuan, and the basis increased by 46.67% to - 16 yuan. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.00% to 8,960 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 1.21% to 9,502 yuan, and the basis increased by 4.30% to 388 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 6.45% to 198 yuan, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 50.00% to 4 yuan, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 8.06% to 228 yuan. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 35.71% to - 90 yuan, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 1.76% to - 670 yuan, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 7.19% to 1,290 yuan, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 5.92% to 1,272 yuan [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures Indicators - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 increased by 1.27% to 11,955 yuan/ton, and the price of 2603 increased by 2.71% to 11,385 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 20.83% to - 570 yuan. The main contract positions increased by 81.80% to 151,512, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 108 [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Indicators - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.07% to 217,041 heads, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 18.21 yuan, the weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 17.00 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.46% to 129.82 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 13.31% to - 168 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 4.25% to - 259 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [3]. 3.3 Meal and Bean Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.65% to 3,040 yuan, and the futures price (M2605) decreased by 1.52% to 2,778 yuan. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.47% to 2,342 yuan. - **Soybean**: The warehouse receipt of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 15,766 [6]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread decreased by 2.61% to - 3 yuan, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread increased by 4.35% to - 66 yuan, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.66% to 2.83, and the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.80% to 436 yuan [6]. 3.4 Sugar Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.64% to 5,337 yuan/ton, the price of 2605 increased by 0.21% to 5,244 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.07% to 14.83 cents/pound. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32.86% to 93 yuan/ton. The main contract positions decreased by 8.69% to 289,716, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 181, and the effective forecast increased by 714.21% to 1,490 [9]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,360 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 0.37% to 5,320 yuan. The basis in Nanning decreased by 8.66% to 116 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 28.97% to 76 yuan. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 0.37% to 4,079 yuan, and (outside quota) decreased by 0.39% to 5,168 yuan [9]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons, the national sales ratio decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [9]. 3.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.5.1 Corn - The price of corn 2601 decreased by 1.48% to 2,261 yuan, the basis increased by 97.14% to 69 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 144.44% to - 4 yuan. The northern - southern trade profit decreased by 20.41% to 39 yuan, the import profit decreased by 15.13% to 314 yuan, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 13.64% to 399, the positions decreased by 2.25% to 2,354,124, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 57,705 [11]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 1.51% to 2,549 yuan, the basis increased by 1950.00% to 41 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.74% to - 38 yuan, the 01 spread between starch and corn decreased by 1.71% to 288 yuan, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 25.00% to 6 yuan, the positions decreased by 2.52% to 333,585 [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.04% to 13,725 yuan/ton, the price of 2601 remained unchanged at 13,750 yuan/ton, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.33% to 63.74 cents/pound. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 16.67% to - 25 yuan. The main contract positions decreased by 1.75% to 489,062 hands, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.62% to 2,753, and the effective forecast increased by 8.02% to 3,004 [15]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.17% to 14,847 yuan, the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.09% to 15,009 yuan, and the FC Index of M: 1% decreased by 0.08% to 12,843 yuan [15]. 3.6.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased by 28.7% to 468.36 million tons, industrial inventory increased by 0.9% to 93.96 million tons, imports decreased by 10.0% to 9.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.8% to 32.20 million tons [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the egg 01 contract increased by 1.15% to 3,153 yuan/500KG, and the price of 02 increased by 0.80% to 3,038 yuan/500KG. The egg - producing area price increased by 0.41% to 2.98 yuan/FT, the basis decreased by 15.45% to - 178 yuan/500KG, and the 1 - 2 spread increased by 11.65% to 115 yuan [19]. 3.7.2 Related Indicators - The price of laying hens increased by 5.56% to 2.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens increased by 1.58% to 3.86 yuan/FT, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% to - 22.62 yuan/feather [19].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 # 泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月9日 | | | | 臣沿 | | | | 12月8日 12月5日 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8600 8600 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8230 8266 | -36 | -0.44% | | Y2601 墓差 370 334 | 36 | 10.78% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+260 01+260 | 0 | ﺗ | | 仓单 22994 22769 | 225 | 0.99% | | 棕榈油 | | | | 12月8日 12月5日 流跌 | | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8690 8740 | -50 | -0.57% | | 期价 P2601 8706 8770 | -64 | -0.73% | | 星差 P2601 -16 -30 | 14 | 46.67% | | 现货墓差报价 0 广东1月 01+50 01+50 | | - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1 ...

20251208申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 453.7 | 454.8 | 60.14 | 59.83 | 63.37 | 62.96 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 452.6 | 453.9 | 59.70 | 59.36 | 62.75 | 62.35 | | | 涨跌 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.61 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.74% | 0.79% | 0.99% | 0.98% | | | 成交量 | 66,825 | 19,066 | 240,924 | 141,512 | 218,464 | ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：价格创新低，趋势偏弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡回落 | 6 | | 沥青：油价反弹，窄幅震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：基差转弱，上游抛压继续释放 | 10 | | PP：中期趋势仍有压力 | 11 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：承压运行 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡回落 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期需求坚挺，中长期仍承压 | 22 | | 丙烯：供应存增量预期，上行驱动有限 | 22 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 25 | | 燃料油：窄幅震荡，或暂时摆脱弱势 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘反弹，外盘现货高低硫价差 ...

2025.12.8-12.12 电解铝 期货品种周报 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 波动加大，轻仓持多为宜。 上周策略回顾 短线多单建议离场观望，中期多单继续持有。 本周策略建议 持有足量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 下周美联储12月降息落地后市场或有小幅修正，但在全球供应严重缺乏弹性 +储能金属题材预期+历史低位库存+历史低位的铝铜比价等因素支撑下，铝 价偏强格局预计延续。 2 【总体观点】 | | 2025年12月第1周 | | --- | --- | | | 根据Mysteel调研，几内亚停产矿山的复产流程正在稳步推进，另外新矿山的发运计划进展顺利，后 | | 铝土矿市场 | 续总体供应稳中有增。本周由于氧化铝亏损加重，采购迟疑导致进口矿价格有所回落，不过据钢联 | | | 调研，12月份待售现货全部售出海漂现货市场较为收紧。 | | | 截止12月6日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9650万吨（上周9740万吨），产能利 | | | 用率约86.2%，据Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约144 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: None - **Neutral Outlook**: PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, Paper Pulp, Urea, Benzene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Route) [2][5][13][17][20][27][38][51][54][88][91][95][71][73] - **Negative Outlook**: MEG, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, Methanol, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC [2][5][30][34][43][46][57][59][60][68] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market news, to assist investors in making decisions. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors. For example, some commodities are affected by raw material costs, while others are influenced by production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment [2][5][8][12] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 PX, PTA, and MEG - **PX**: It is in a high - level oscillating market supported by costs. The supply is expected to shrink, and the long - PX and short - BZ strategy can be continued, along with the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy [2][5][12] - **PTA**: It shows a unilateral high - level oscillating market, supported by PX costs. The long - PX and short - PTA strategy can be held, along with the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy [2][5][12] - **MEG**: The price hits a new low, and the trend is weak. The willingness to hold positions decreases, and attention can be paid to the positive spread of the monthly difference [2][5][12] 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It oscillates. Overseas floodwaters recede, and production resumes, causing a decline in Thai raw materials. The domestic market is in the off - cutting season, and raw materials are firm [13][14][15] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates and declines. The supply of butadiene is slightly reduced, and the demand is stable. The synthetic rubber has fundamental pressure but is supported by valuation [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt - It is in a low - level oscillation, and factory inventories slightly increase. The weekly output decreases, factory inventories are flat, and social inventories decrease [20][26] 3.4 LLDPE - The basis declines, and the supply remains loose. The raw material price oscillates, the downstream demand is weak, and the mid - term supply - demand pressure exists [27][28] 3.5 PP - The mid - term trend still faces pressure. The supply is high, the demand peak has passed, and although the short - term market is strong, the trend pressure is large [30][31] 3.6 Caustic Soda - The trend still faces pressure. The high - production, high - inventory pattern continues, the demand is weak, and the cost support is limited [34][35][36] 3.7 Paper Pulp - It oscillates. The price of imported pulp rises emotionally, but the demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [38][41][42] 3.8 Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is weak [43][44] 3.9 Methanol - It operates under pressure. The port inventory decreases slightly, the short - term de - stocking slows down, and the mid - term supply pressure is high [46][49] 3.10 Urea - It gradually enters an oscillating pattern. The enterprise inventory decreases, the demand improves, and the price is supported, but the policy pressure may appear [51][52][53] 3.11 Benzene and Styrene - **Benzene**: It oscillates in the short term. The short - term reality is weak, but the long - term supply contraction expectation is strong [54][55] - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure is high, and the supply pressure is not large [54][55] 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general [57] 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. The CP price changes, and there are many device maintenance plans [59][60][65] - **Propylene**: The pattern remains loose. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is under pressure [60] 3.14 PVC - It oscillates at a low level. The inventory increases, the short - term is not suitable for short - selling, and the supply may decrease in the future [68][69] 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It rebounds slightly, possibly getting out of the weak state temporarily [71] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session weakens, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [71] 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Route) - It oscillates strongly due to geopolitical disturbances and price - increase announcements. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, but the high price may not be sustainable in the mid - term [73][85][86] 3.17 Short - fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - fiber**: It oscillates in the short term and faces pressure in the mid - term. The futures are weak, and the spot sales are sluggish [88] - **Bottle Chip**: It oscillates in the short term and faces pressure in the mid - term. The upstream raw materials are weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is light [88][89] 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to take profits on long positions opportunely. The market price is stable, the demand is weak, and the cost increases [91][92][94] 3.19 Pure Benzene - It oscillates mainly in the short term. The inventory accumulates, and the short - term reality is weak, but the long - term supply contraction expectation is strong [95][96]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，零星聚酯工厂补货。12月货在01贴30~35附近商 谈成交，价格商谈区间在4675~4710。本周仓单在01-39成交，下周初仓单在01-35有成交，今日主流现货基差在01-32。中性 2、基差：现货4685，01合约基差-39，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：日内PTA现货市场商谈氛围清淡，报递盘僵持，期 ...

【期现】 截至12月4日收盘，焦煤期货震荡反弹走势，以收盘价统计，焦煤主力2601合约+21.0(+1.96%)至 1091.5，焦煤远月2605合约+19.5(+1.67%)至1184.0，1-5价差走强至-92.5。S1.3G75山西主焦煤(介休)仓 单1300元/吨，环比+0.0元/吨，基差+208.5元/吨；S1.3G75主焦煤(蒙5)沙河驿仓单1205元/吨(对标)，环 比+0.0元/吨，蒙5仓单基差+113.5元/吨。焦煤期货低位震荡，山西煤焦现货继续下跌，蒙煤现货报价企 稳。 【供给】 截至12月4日，全样本独立焦化厂焦炭日均产量64.5万吨/日，周环比+0.8万吨/日，247家钢厂焦炭日均 产量46.6万吨/日，周环比+0.3万吨/日，总产量为111.1万吨/日，周环比+1.1万吨/日。 截至12月4日，日均铁水产量232.30万吨/日，环比-2.38万吨/日；高炉开工率80.16%，环比-0.93%；高炉 炼铁产能利用率87.08%，环比-0.89%；钢厂盈利率36.36%，环比+1.3%。 【库存】 截至12月4日，焦煤总库存(矿山+洗煤厂+焦化厂+钢厂+16港+口岸)周环比+56.0至3 ...

成文日期: 20251202 报告周期: 日度 研究品种:豆粕 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 豆粕期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251202）期货品种豆粕 m2601 合约价格呈窄幅波动 走势。以 3033 元/吨为开盘价，盘中最高上涨至 3048 元/吨，最低 下跌至 3029 元/吨，终盘报收于 3045 元/吨，较昨日上涨 1 元/吨, 参考涨幅 0.03%。全日成交量 494360 手，持仓量为 1164957 手。 1.2 品种价格 当日豆粕期货各合约价大多小幅上涨,品种合约总持仓量为 3785832 手，较上一交易日增加 25028 手。 图 2：豆粕期货日行情表 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 ：豆粕 m2601 分时图 数据来源:国金期货-文华财经赢顺 WH6 | 合约名称 | 最新 涨跌 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 日增仓 | | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 结算 | | --- | --- ...

生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月5日 朱迪 70015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 王力合约基左 | -82 | -240 | 155 | 64.58% | | | 生猪2605 | 11870 | 11925 | -22 | -0.46% | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11385 | 11490 | -105 | -0.91% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -485 | -435 | -50 | -11.49% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 90529 | 91758 | -1229 | -1.34% | | | 仓单 | 85 | 0 | 85 | #DIV/0! | 主 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11300 | 11250 | 50.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11250 | ...