Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the outlook of industrial silicon being in a state of upstream production cuts and range - bound oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,780 yuan/ton, with changes of 35 yuan from T - 1, 25 yuan from T - 5, and 135 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 280,575 lots, down 57,731 lots from T - 1, up 34,639 lots from T - 5, and down 67,902 lots from T - 22; its open interest is 223,687 lots, down 865 from T - 1, down 11,402 from T - 5, and up 15,907 from T - 22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 49,700 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan from T - 1 and up 755 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 15,484 lots, up 5,369 lots from T - 1 and down 5,458 lots from T - 5; its open interest is 43,920 lots, up 288 from T - 1 and down 4,519 from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount (against East China Si5530) is +470 yuan/ton, with changes of -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -85 yuan from T - 22; against East China Si4210 is +70 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and 1,135 yuan from T - 22; against Xinjiang 99 silicon is -80 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -140 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) is +5050 yuan/ton, 0 from T - 1, -1,255 yuan from T - 5, and 11,895 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 50 yuan from T - 22; Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2351.5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 325 yuan from T - 5, and down 70 yuan from T - 22; (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 5574 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 295 yuan from T - 5, and down 205 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 0.2 million tons from T - 22; enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.8 million tons, up 0.42 million tons from T - 5 and 2.1 million tons from T - 22; industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from T - 5 and 2.25 million tons from T - 22; futures warehouse receipt inventory is 6.0 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from T - 1, 0.4 million tons from T - 5, and 1.6 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 32.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from T - 5 and 2.8 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore price in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Yunnan is 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 and 20 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Washed coking coal price in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Ningxia is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Petroleum coke price: Maoming coke is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; Yangtze coke is 2340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Electrode price: graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price and Profit - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22; trichlorosilane is 3425 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; silicon powder (99 silicon) is 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm) price is 1.68 yuan/piece, down 0.01 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and up 0.20 yuan from T - 22; battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.41 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.02 yuan from T - 5, and down 0.71 yuan from T - 22; component (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.711 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.003 yuan from T - 5, and up 0.024 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 1.5 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 299 yuan from T - 5, and down 65 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - Organic silicon DMC price is 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 50 yuan from T - 5, and up 300 yuan from T - 22; DMC enterprise profit is 1954 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 124 yuan from T - 5, and up 264 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 23850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 350 yuan from T - 5, and up 2200 yuan from T - 22; recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from T - 1, up 610 yuan from T - 5, and up 220 yuan from T - 22 [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - The battery end is still under cost pressure due to the rising silver price. The mainstream market quotation is 0.4 - 0.43 yuan/W, and some leading enterprises intend to raise the quotation to 0.45 yuan/W. The current mainstream domestic market transactions are concentrated at 0.4 - 0.41 yuan/W, and the latest overseas battery 183N transaction has reached 0.43 yuan/W due to the export tax policy [2][4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [4]

市场分析 2026-01-21日沪镍主力合约2602开于142600元/吨，收于143060元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.39%，当 日成交量为745668（+50522）手，持仓量为75892（-3113）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约整体表现为宽幅波动、尾盘收涨，多空博弈激烈，核心驱动来自宏观情 绪、外盘联动与供需预期的综合影响。日内有色金属及贵金属板块普涨，一定程度上带动了沪镍价格走 势。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿价格延续上行态势，市场看涨与挺价情绪主导，实际成交价格 重心进一步上移。菲律宾矿山高报价持续引导市场。国内市场有1.5%品位镍矿以CIF57美元成交，另有 大型工厂对该品位的心理采购价位在58-59美元。同时，1.4%品位CIF53美元左右的报价已出现，但买方 接受意愿较低，凸显市场博弈加剧。此外，菲律宾南部矿山1.3%品位镍矿以FOB35.5美元的价格成交并 运往印尼，矿端心态普遍看涨。印尼方面，市场价格在前期大幅上调后暂时企稳。市场正在消化当前高 位成本，并观望后续官方动作。据市场预期，随着LME镍价走强，2月内贸基准价（HPM）仍有上调空 间，成本支撑预期持续存在， ...

市场看空心态明显，价格恐难有反弹空间。短期SH2603预计偏弱波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 1939 | -21 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 260393 | 6766 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -30321 | 378 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 420709 | -129825 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) -11 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2391 | | 2144 | -29 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) 378 | -30321 | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区( ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas raw material prices are continuously falling, weakening the bottom support for natural rubber (NR). The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of NR remains unchanged, and the downstream production and sales pressure persists [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 251,199 lots, an increase of 34,844 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 178,976 lots, a decrease of 7,467 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 109,870 tons, a decrease of 20 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 37,207 lots, a decrease of 2,487 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was -220 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was -870 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 45 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,140 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the STR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SMR20 was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also declined. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber, also decreased [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of NR in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, with a growth rate of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, with a growth rate of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao increased to varying degrees [2][3] - Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively large proportion of European exports have relatively sufficient foreign trade orders recently, and their production is maintained at a relatively high level. However, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, the domestic sales are slow, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high [3]

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 101,020 CNY/ton and closed at 101,230 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% from the previous trading day [14] - The night session saw the contract open at 101,020 CNY/ton and close at 99,930 CNY/ton, marking a decrease of 1.29% from the afternoon close [14] Spot Market - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot price was quoted at a discount of 280 to 20 CNY/ton against the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 CNY, down 30 CNY from the previous day [15] - The spot price range was between 100,270 and 101,180 CNY/ton, with the main copper futures initially rising before falling back to close at 101,000 CNY [15] - The current market is characterized by a discount structure due to high copper prices and limited downstream purchasing, with logistics remaining generally smooth despite potential impacts from snowfall in the north [15] Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price limits for various futures contracts effective January 22, 2026, including an 8% price limit for copper futures and a 10% margin for general positions [16][5] Mining Sector - Peru's copper production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year to 216,152 tons, while cumulative production from January to November 2025 increased by 1.6% to 2.5 million tons [17] - The long-term growth outlook for Peru's copper production remains weak due to a lack of new projects and declining ore grades, with expectations for only a slight increase to around 2.8 million tons in 2026 [17] Import and Recycling - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper totaled 238,976.87 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.83% and a year-on-year increase of 9.90% [17] - Japan was the largest source of scrap copper imports, while Thailand also showed significant growth in exports to China [17] Consumption Trends - Last week, copper prices remained stable with limited demand from downstream markets, as overall orders were lackluster, leading to a focus on just-in-time purchasing by downstream enterprises [18] - The LME warehouse stocks decreased by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons, while SHFE stocks fell by 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons [18] Price Strategy - The current outlook for copper prices is neutral, with expectations of a trading range between 99,500 CNY/ton and 110,000 CNY/ton due to high prices and weak downstream demand [19]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that glass prices may remain weakly oscillating in the short - term, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rebounds. It attributes this to the potential contraction of supply due to some production lines' cold - repair plans, but the demand decline in the real - estate sector is expected to be more significant, with the contraction of production capacity possibly falling short of the demand drop. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货市场**：The glass futures main contract oscillated downward during the day, showing a short - term weakly oscillating signal. The trading volume decreased by 7.1 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 6,499 lots. The intraday high was 1,072, the low was 1,055, and the closing price was 1,056, down 34 yuan/ton or 3.12% from the previous settlement price [1]. - **现货市场**：The market in North China was sluggish with weak transactions; in East China, it was stable, with improved shipments in Shandong but restricted shipments in Anhui due to snow; in Central China, there was little fluctuation and weak shipments due to weather; in South China, it was stable, with downstream rush - work but average inventory - stocking willingness [1]. - **基差**：The spot price in North China was 1,020, with a basis of - 36 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **供应方面**：As of January 15, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.0523 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, but one previously ignited production line started producing glass, and with the load recovery of some production lines, the daily output increased slightly [2]. - **库存方面**：The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and there is still an expectation of further decline [2]. - **需求方面**：The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep - processing enterprises in the north and south regions are diverging, with an increase in the executable order days in the south and a decline in the north and central regions [2][3]. - **利润方面**：The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3]. Main Logic Summary The long - term losses of glass production lines are accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to contract further. However, the real - estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, and the real - estate demand has not improved. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, glass factory orders are limited, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there are still cold - repair expectations for a few production lines, the contraction of production capacity may be less than the decline in demand. It is advisable to short on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view presented in the report. It mainly provides comprehensive data on the lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and cost - profit information. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 81.8%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 96.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Indicators**: The main contract's closing price is 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13,240 yuan (8.99%) and a weekly decrease of 6,480 yuan (-3.88%). The trading volume is 451,074 lots, with a daily increase of 121,948 lots (37.05%) and a weekly decrease of 157,103 lots (-25.83%). The open interest is 415,351 lots, with a daily increase of 4,020 lots (0.98%) and a weekly decrease of 44,930 lots (-9.76%) [3]. - **Spread Data**: LC2605 - LC2607 is -860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan (59.26%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (38.71%); LC2605 - LC2609 is -1,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 640 yuan (-31.37%) and a weekly decrease of 820 yuan (-36.94%); LC2607 - LC2609 is -540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 960 yuan (-64.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1,060 yuan (-66.25%) [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 27,681 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots (-0.06%) and a weekly increase of 783 lots (2.91%) [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is priced at 4,710 yuan/ton (no daily change), lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) is 8,295 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 70 yuan, 0.85%), lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) is 14,075 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 125 yuan, 0.90%), etc. [20]. - **Lithium Salts**: Industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 1.02%), battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,500 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 0.99%), etc. [20]. - **Cell Materials**: Energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,740 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.66%), power lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,140 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.67%), etc. [21]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.961, with a daily decrease of 0.0031 (-0.04%) [21]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton (no change), the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is -12,800 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,680 yuan, 15.11%), etc. [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main continuous contract basis and near - month contract basis of lithium carbonate are presented in historical trend charts [30][31]. - **Brand Basis**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., for the LC2601 contract are provided, with most having no daily change [32]. - **Warehouse Receipt Seasonality**: The lithium carbonate warehouse receipt seasonality chart is shown, and the total warehouse receipt quantity is 27,698 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots [34][35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Data - **Production Profits**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented in trend charts [37]. - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are shown in trend charts [38][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current slaughter rhythm of large-scale farms is normal, but the slaughter in some areas is affected by snowfall. After the New Year's Day, the demand for curing decreases, and the terminal consumption tolerance is limited after the recent increase in spot prices. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has declined from the high level. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - Spring Festival stocking. Overall, the price increase has led to a decrease in procurement by slaughtering enterprises, and the spot price of live pigs has stagnated and adjusted. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand will increase, and the game will intensify. On the futures market, due to the slowdown of capacity reduction and the year - end inventory data, the market sentiment is weak, the live pig 2603 contract has fallen by 2.53%, the center of the oscillation range has continued to move down, and the futures performance is weaker than the spot [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract of live pigs is 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan; the main contract position is 144,103 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 433 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 48,591 lots, an increase of 704 lots [2] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin is 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is 1,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7,130,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI in the current month is 0.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,369.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 906.92, an increase of 0.48; the monthly output of feed is 29,779,000 tons, an increase of 209,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,431 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is 48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 50.66 yuan; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs is 7.39 yuan/head, an increase of 18.93 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 39,570,000 heads, an increase of 1,230,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the national average price of piglets was 23.39 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 29.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The prices in 29 monitored provinces across the country declined. Among them, the month - on - month decline in Northeast China was relatively large, with Liaoning leading the decline at 11.3%. In terms of price levels, the average price of piglets in South China was the highest at 27.89 yuan/kg, and the lowest in North China at 21.85 yuan/kg [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core View - The rubber market shows a shockingly weak trend, with various data in the futures and spot markets experiencing fluctuations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,610 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The trading volume was 216,355 lots, a decrease of 131,826 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 186,443 lots, a decrease of 4,496 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,500 tons to 109,890 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 4,064 lots to 39,694 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was -245 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was -895 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 40 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The RSS3 outer - disk quotation remained unchanged at 2,160 US dollars/ton, while STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 5 US dollars/ton respectively [1] - **Substitutes and Spot Market**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12,100 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 10 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15 US dollars/ton [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.49 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67 tons, or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.42% to 9.95 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.26% to 48.54 tons. The inbound rate and outbound rate of bonded and general trade warehouses both increased [2] Supply Situation - Enterprises adjust production schedules flexibly according to their own inventory, shipments, and orders. Some enterprises that limited production last week may increase production this week, while others may moderately reduce production due to shipment pressure. Overall, the supply side fluctuates slightly, and the shipment of some enterprises in Shandong has slowed down due to weather [4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is currently in a state of weak adjustment. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, the futures are at a discount. In the short - term, it shows a slightly weak oscillation, but the overall downside space is limited [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate narrowly during the day, closing at 794 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 2.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 396,000 lots, the open interest was 616,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.766 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of mainstream port spot varieties, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port and Super Special powder, both dropped by 8 yuan. The price of the main swap contract was 104.65 (-1.35) US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 841.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 47.2 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened. The iron ore 2 - 5 spread was 16 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping is relatively stable. There may be hurricane and rainfall disturbances in Australia and Brazil. The high - volume shipments in the early stage are arriving at ports one after another. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather disturbances [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong [2]. - **Inventory**: The port continued to accumulate inventory, the berthing inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated. The overall inventory pressure was still building up. The downstream replenishment demand and market sentiment supported the futures and spot prices [2]. Macro - level - **Overseas**: Consumption provides support, inflation declines, and the Federal Reserve maintains a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy is in a "light to moderate" expansion range, with regional performance differentiation. Employment is mainly for filling vacancies, and labor employment is relatively stable. Price pressure has generally eased, but there are still differences in tariff - related categories [4]. - **Domestic**: Incremental policies are continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current fundamental reality is still in the off - season, but the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered a critical period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the implementation of early - batch projects since January are also expected to continue. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].