Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that there is no basis for a bull market due to the high - yield in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is generally oscillating with an upward bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans rebounded from a low level. Before the quarterly inventory and acreage reports, the price declined. The old - crop inventory was higher than expected, but the new - crop acreage was lower than expected. There were high expectations of improved Sino - US relations, and the "big and beautiful" bill of the Trump administration boosted the price of US soybean oil, thereby raising the price of soybeans. Next week, attention should be paid to the changes after the expiration of the US tariff suspension policy on other countries and the weather conditions in the US main production areas [7]. - After the quarterly inventory report and acreage report, the price of US soybean meal bottomed out and rebounded with the increase in soybean prices, and the bearish expectation eased slightly [10]. - Crude oil strengthened slightly, and factors such as the "big and beautiful" bill pushed up the price of US soybean oil [14]. - As of the week ending June 27, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports slightly declined [17]. - As of June 27, the purchase price at farms (Iowa) decreased [19]. - As of July 3, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa rebounded [21]. - The spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, remained basically stable [23]. - The spot price of soybeans in Brazil increased slightly [25]. 2. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 30%, compared to 32% last week [28]. - The temperature in the eastern US soybean production areas was relatively high, while that in the central - western regions was normal [30]. - Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate that most of the US soybean production areas will receive normal to slightly above - normal precipitation [32]. - Precipitation in Brazil's production areas was low [36]. - Precipitation in Argentina's soybean production areas was normal to above - normal [37]. - As of June 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the same as last week and 67% in the same period last year [40]. 3. Demand Factors - As of June 27, the crushing profit of US soybeans was 2.43 dollars per bushel, compared to 2.61 dollars last week [43]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 251,500 tons, compared to 266,000 tons last week [45]. - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 224,700 tons, compared to 192,800 tons last week [48]. - The weekly net sales volume was 462,400 tons, compared to 402,900 tons last week [50]. - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year was 239,000 tons, compared to 156,100 tons last week [52]. - The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [54]. 4. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) was - 0.09, indicating a neutral state [57]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US decreased [59][61]. - As of June 24, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 46,700 lots, compared to 84,900 lots last week [65]. - As of June 24, the net long position of soybean oil in CFTC was 58,800 lots, compared to 61,800 lots last week [67]. - As of June 17, the net short position of soybean meal in CFTC was 101,700 lots, compared to 102,800 lots last week [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [6][7][10]. - For rapeseed oil, the Canadian government has adjusted the estimated production and planting area of rapeseed, and the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The continuous drought in western Canada has raised concerns about rapeseed yields. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate has reduced the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may tighten again, which may affect rapeseed exports to China [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased, and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the market price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the operating rate of oil mills, and the supply is relatively loose, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although it is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate in the short - term [6]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - Market outlook: The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in 2024 has been increased, but the planting area in 2025 has been revised down. The dry weather in western Canada has affected the yield expectations. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure on mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations are factors to be considered [7]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate in the short - term and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [9]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market outlook: The USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the supply of rapeseed meal, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 323,968 lots, an increase of 4,565 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net long positions increased from +23,230 to +24,789 [16][21]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 564,558 lots, a decrease of 28,543 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net short positions decreased from - 35,816 to - 4,491 [16][21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 805 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 16,232 lots [25][26]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,730 yuan/ton, showing a rebound. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil and the spot price in Jiangsu is +123 yuan/ton [35]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,430 yuan/ton, showing a slight rebound. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal is - 167 yuan/ton [41]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is +71 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is +271 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [47]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.699, and the average ratio of spot prices is 4.0 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - The spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,663 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,135 yuan/ton, both showing narrow - range fluctuations this week [59]. - The spread between the 09 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 357 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 340 yuan/ton [65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of June 27, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 are 260,000 tons, 130,000 tons, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 3, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +222 yuan/ton. As of the 26th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 56,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, with an operating rate of 13.82%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 153,800 tons [69][74][78][82]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 884,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 111,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons [87]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons. As of May 31, the catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 159,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.13% [91][95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 27.12%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 194,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 103,900 tons [99][103]. - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons [107]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of July 4, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 17.22%, a decrease of 1.77% from the previous week, at a level comparable to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - Short - term rebound of soybean meal futures may face profit - taking pressure. However, based on the elasticity of future US weather and the expectation of higher costs for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious optimism after corrections. The risk factors are the improvement of weather conditions and tariff situations [6]. - The supply pressure causes the US soybean futures to run weakly, but considering the positive effects of biodiesel policies, there is expected to be support at the bottom, waiting for the data guidance from the end - of - June report [6]. - The trading volume of soybean meal has been good since June. When prices are low, downstream buyers are willing to make safety purchases, but when prices rise, it's difficult to see continuous high - volume trading. The price of soybean meal will still be mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: - For the soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased. The trading volume of 2509 was 964,679, and its closing price was 2961, with a gain of 0.78%. The trading volume of 2511 was 72,620, and its closing price was 2998, with a gain of 0.77%. The trading volume of 2507 was 18,510, and its closing price was 2855, with a gain of 1.64% [6]. - The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1025 cents. After a rebound due to the positive news of US soybean oil, the price dropped significantly last week because of the good growth of new US soybeans and sufficient rainfall in the main production areas [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Futures operation should be cautiously bullish on the fourth - quarter contracts after corrections, considering the future US weather and the expected increase in the cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter [6]. 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report**: As of the week ending June 19, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 55.91 million tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in exports for the current market year was 40.29 million tons, and for the next market year was 15.62 million tons. The export shipment was 26.56 million tons [9]. - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending June 24, about 12% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 13% the previous week and up from 6% in the same period last year [9]. - **EU Import Data**: As of June 22, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.76 million tons (compared to 3.41 million tons last year), soybean imports were 13.79 million tons (compared to 12.89 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 18.88 million tons (compared to 14.93 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 7.16 million tons (compared to 5.59 million tons last year) [10].

短期，预计 6 月马棕继续小幅累库，三季度产地仍处增产周期，棕榈油 报价或震荡偏弱运行。目前市场仍关注美国生柴的落地情况，将对盘面造成 较大扰动。当前美豆主产区天气良好，后期继续关注产地天气和季度报告。 国内豆油开始累库，但预计库存仍不会宽松。欧洲菜籽临近上市，另外加拿 大上调旧作菜籽库存，国内菜油基本面变化不大，菜油供大于求的格局持续， 不过国内菜油进入逐渐去库阶段，菜油在国内基本面边际好转的预期下以及 中加关系不确定性仍存，对菜油盘面提供一定支撑。 【策略推荐】 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | 棕榈油出口表现欠佳，库存整体保持紧平衡 | 4 | | 三、 | 印度阶段性进口高峰有望来临，但本年度整体进口或将明显下滑 | 9 | | 四、 | 提议增加美国生柴义务 12 巴西上调生柴掺混至 B15，EPA | | | 五、 | 国内油脂库存持续累库 油脂基差稳中偏弱运行 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, there is no basis for a bull market in US soybeans due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a significant decline is small. The market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Bearish factors include Argentina raising the soybean export tariff to 33% before July 1st, leading to farmers' concentrated selling, and the smooth sowing of US soybeans with no large - scale drought threat for now [5]. - Bullish factors are that the biodiesel policy's increased addition volume exceeds expectations and restricts imports, which is beneficial for domestic demand of US soybeans; the old - crop balance sheet is tight, and there are strong concerns about drought in US soybean - producing areas under the ENSO neutral state; the planting area may be lower than expected [5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans declined under pressure, mainly driven by favorable weather in the main producing areas [10]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal continued to fall, affected by factors such as the biodiesel addition policy being unfavorable to soybean meal, good weather in the main producing areas, and general export sales [12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil slightly corrected as the conflict between Iran and Israel eased, and the sharp decline in crude oil prices led to the correction of US soybean oil prices from their high levels [14]. - Last week, the spot price of soybeans at the US Gulf ports slightly corrected [16]. - Last week, the procurement price at the farm (Iowa) was basically stable [18]. - Last week, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa declined [20]. - The spot price of soybeans in Brazil (Mato Grosso state) was basically stable [22]. - The overall spot price of soybeans in Brazil was basically stable [24]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has improved, with the drought rate at 32%, compared to 35% last week [28]. - The temperature in the Great Lakes and eastern regions of the main US soybean - producing areas is relatively high [30]. - Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate slightly less precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas and more rain in the central - southern regions [33]. - Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is relatively low [37]. - Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is slightly above normal [38]. - The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, the same as last week and 1 percentage point lower than the same period last year [40]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of June 20th, the crushing profit of US soybeans was $2.61 per bushel, compared to $1.87 last week [44]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 265,600 tons, down from 406,100 tons last week [46]. - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 192,800 tons, down from 215,800 tons last week [48]. - The weekly net sales volume was 402,900 tons, down from 539,500 tons last week [50]. - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year was 156,100 tons, up from 75,000 tons last week [52]. - The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [54]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.227, indicating a basically neutral state [57]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [59][61]. - As of June 17th, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 84,900 lots, up from 54,800 lots last week [65]. - As of June 17th, the net long position of soybean oil in CFTC was 61,800 lots, up from 33,900 lots last week [67]. - As of June 17th, the net short position of soybean meal in CFTC was 102,800 lots, up from 75,800 lots last week [69].

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】美国能源信息署数据显示，截止6月20日当 周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.17632亿桶，比前 一周下降560万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.15106亿桶，比前一 周下降584万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.27938亿桶，比前一周下 降208万桶；美国原油日均产量1343.5万桶，比前周日均产量增 加4000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加23.5万桶；伊朗议会通过 暂停与联合国核查机构合作的法案；特朗普：下周美方将与伊 朗会谈；若伊朗重启核计划，美国将再度实施打击。评：地缘 溢价已经完全回落。供需看，5月OPEC+增产未达预期，OPEC+维 持增产的立场不变，需求偏弱。把握压力位沽空机会。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗 就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这 类协议"有多必要"。他补充说，美方此次将提出与此前在中 东局势升级前与伊朗谈判时相同的要求。特朗普表示，自己 "非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突已经结束。评：以 伊冲突结束，避险情绪降温，利空黄金。降息预期增加，美元 走弱，利多黄金。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变，但进一步上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in canola oil futures indicates a bearish sentiment in the short term, influenced by various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Canola oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9468.00 yuan, closing at 9480.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.32% [1] - The short-term outlook for canola oil is bearish, with support levels identified between 9400-9420 yuan and resistance levels between 9750-9790 yuan [1] - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly increased week-on-week, contributing to a relatively loose supply-demand situation [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests a short-term bearish outlook for canola oil, citing the significant drop in crude oil prices as a negative influence on the profitability of blending vegetable oils with biodiesel [1] - Dayue Futures anticipates a range-bound trading scenario for canola oil, with expected fluctuations between 9300-9700 yuan [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of the upcoming hearings on U.S. biodiesel production expectations and the evolving trade relations between China and Canada [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of canola from overseas is expected to be tight, while domestic demand remains stable, leading to a mixed outlook for canola prices [1] - The USDA's projections for South American production in 2024/2025 are relatively high, which may influence global oilseed prices [1] - The Indonesian B40 policy is expected to boost domestic consumption, although international biodiesel profits remain low, indicating weak demand [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. It is recommended to use strategies like expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil and reverse arbitrage of 9 - 1 contracts. There is potential to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5][8]. - Soybean oil also has a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. There is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policy [7]. - Soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to adjust and fluctuate next week, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. - Corn is expected to run strongly. Although CBOT corn has fallen, wheat prices have risen and corn starch inventory has changed. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight [39][45]. - The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [69][71]. - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate. The policy of state reserve purchase provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. - The peanut market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [117][118]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Due to the sudden positive news of US biodiesel obligation volume and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the palm oil 09 contract rose 4.86% last week [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: June rainfall in Malaysia is expected to be dry, with production estimated to be 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. There is a risk that production from July to August may be lower than last year. Exports are strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. The US biodiesel policy is positive for the international oil market. However, if production in Malaysia and Indonesia remains strong from July to August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August to September. It is recommended to use spread strategies in the short term and consider going long at low levels before the fourth quarter [5]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel obligation volume and the Middle East situation, the soybean oil 09 contract rose 4.75% last week [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The EPA's significant increase in the 2026 biomass diesel RVO is positive for US soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. Inventory may peak in July, and there is an opportunity to go long in the fourth quarter [6][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Performance**: US soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. Domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices were strongly volatile. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week but were higher than expected. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week. Domestic soybean meal had high - volume trading in the far - month basis, and the Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybean auction was fully successful [17]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean are expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for the end - of - month US soybean acreage report [21]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of June 20. In the futures market, the price broke through and rose. The basis of the main contract weakened [39][40]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell due to increased rainfall in the US Midwest. Wheat prices rose, and imported corn auctions were suspended. Corn starch inventory decreased. The overall supply - demand balance of corn remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [41][45]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: In the international market, the net long position of funds in the New York raw sugar decreased significantly. In the domestic market, the spot price of Guangxi sugar groups decreased, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose. The 24/25 sugar - making season in China had an increase in production and sales [69][70]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is expected to consolidate at a low level, while the domestic sugar market is expected to rebound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Brazilian production and export rhythm and Indian industrial policies [71][102]. Live Pigs - **This Week's Review**: The spot price of live pigs was strongly volatile. The supply was tight, and the demand was slightly improved compared with the beginning of the month. The futures price of live pigs was also strongly volatile [103][104]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The state reserve purchase policy provides support, but the inventory cycle in the second half of the year depends on the social circle rhythm. The LH2509 futures contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment [105][106]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The spot price of peanuts rose, but the momentum for continuous price increase was insufficient. The futures price fluctuated [117]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is in a stalemate and fluctuating pattern. The futures market is mainly in a state of shock, and the lower side of the futures price has support. Attention should be paid to the peanut planting area and weather in the producing areas [118].