随着美元指数周二遭遇去年四月以来最猛烈跌幅，周三(1月28日)亚市早盘，国际贵金属价格再度大幅 上涨，现货黄金价格一举升破了5200美元/盎司。而与此同时，芝商所(CME)则再度上调了白银、铂 金、钯金的保证金比例。 周二，当被记者问及是否担心美元贬值时，美国总统特朗普称："不，我认为美元表现很好。我希望 （美元）回归自身应有的水平，这是合理的做法。" 在特朗普发表上述评论之前，美元已经历了自去年4月关税冲击以来最大的三日跌幅，特朗普反复无常 的格陵兰外交政策以及美国愿意帮助日本提振日元的信号，都令市场感到不安。而特朗普的最新言论， 无疑进一步加剧了美元的下跌态势。 "外汇市场参与者总是在寻找可以顺势而为的趋势，"渣打银行驻纽约全球G10货币研究主管史蒂夫·英格 兰德表示，"官员们通常会反对突然的货币政策变动，但当总统表示漠不关心甚至支持这种做法时，就 会鼓励美元卖方继续施压。" 上周，美国财政部罕见地实施了一次汇率询价操作——指示纽约联储联系多家银行，询问如果决定进行 美元兑日元交易，银行所能提供的汇率。一位消息人士表示，市场将此视为一个信号，表明如果日本推 高日元汇率，美国当局不会介意，甚至可能会提供帮助 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline of the US dollar has been welcomed by President Trump, who believes it could help reduce the trade deficit, although he does not seek further depreciation [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index has dropped to a four-year low, falling 9% last year, marking its worst performance since 2017 [1][3]. - On January 27, the dollar index fell to 95.566, the lowest since February 2022, while the euro and pound reached their highest levels since mid-2021 [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The decline in the dollar has benefited some companies by lowering the cost of converting overseas profits into dollars and enhancing the international competitiveness of US exports [3][4]. - The weakening dollar has also eased the debt repayment pressure for foreign countries and companies with dollar-denominated debts [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The drop in the dollar reflects investor concerns about the strength of the US economy, potentially increasing import costs and inflationary pressures [3][5]. - Market participants are increasingly skeptical about the stability of the dollar, with ongoing themes of "selling America" as international investors doubt the end of the dollar's decline [4][5]. Group 4: Economic Factors - Factors contributing to the dollar's pressure include expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, and the widening US fiscal deficit [5][6]. - Speculation about potential coordinated intervention by the US and Japan to support the yen has also added pressure on the dollar [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Greenland issue has reignited risk premiums on the dollar, indicating long-term adverse effects on the currency as investors may reduce their dollar asset allocations [7]. - Many investors anticipate further weakening of the dollar by 2026, with ongoing reasons to remain bearish on the currency [7].

近期美元指数跌至2022年2月以来的近四年低位，本月累计跌幅扩大至超2.2%。美国总统特朗普反复无 常的内政与外交政策，削弱了全球投资者对美国资产的信心。与此同时，美国政府停摆风险、美联储主 席人选传闻以及与北约盟友的紧张关系，尤其是格陵兰岛纷争，进一步拖累美元表现。 日本国内财政与政治不确定性同步压制日元表现。日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政计划引发市场对 日本财政可持续性的担忧，其竞选承诺包括未来两年取消食品销售税并配套积极财政支出政策。当前日 本政府债务规模已连续多年超过GDP的200%，相关计划被认为可能进一步恶化财政状况，对日元构成 中期压力。2月8日众议院临时大选临近，政策方向的不确定性令投资者保持谨慎，削弱了日元的避险吸 引力。 巴克莱银行高级外汇策略师Lefteris Farmakis表示："格陵兰岛事件重新推升了美元的风险溢价。二战后 国际秩序正在被颠覆，这对美元而言是长期利空。"他还提到，有关美日外汇干预的传闻正在放大美元 跌势，释放出美国政府愿意容忍美元贬值以提升出口竞争力的信号。 日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，如有必要将与美国当局密切协调，对汇率波动采取适当行动。市场对美日 联合干预的预期 ...

Group 1 - The international gold market is experiencing a slight weakening due to profit-taking and a stabilizing US dollar index, which limits the upward movement of gold prices [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision is expected to maintain interest rates, further diminishing the appeal for gold bulls [1] - Despite potential hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, it is unlikely to reverse the current gold price trend, as multiple supportive factors for gold remain in play [3] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, driven by geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainties, and institutional optimism, with expectations of gold prices reaching $5,500 in the short term and potentially $6,000 [3] - There is a possibility of gold prices touching $10,000 before 2030, indicating a strong long-term bullish sentiment [3] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently strong, operating above the upper Bollinger Band, with support levels providing potential re-entry opportunities for bullish positions [3]

当日，有记者问及是否认为美元贬值过多时，特朗普明确回应："不，我认为这很好，美元的价值……美元 的表现很好。"他同时表示，并不希望美元进一步贬值，"我希望它……只是寻求自己的水平"，甚至暗示自 身具备影响美元走势的能力，称"我可以让它像悠悠球一样涨跌"。值得注意的是，特朗普的言论发布后，美 元指数先出现短暂小幅拉升，随后快速转跌，日内跌幅超50点，纽约尾盘报96.219，延续了2025年以来的疲 软态势——去年美元指数累计下跌9.5%，创下2017年以来最差年度表现。 分析指出，美元近期的持续走弱并非单一因素导致，而是多重压力叠加的结果。首要驱动因素是市场对美 联储继续降息的预期，尽管最新调查显示美联储未来两年可能仅降息两次，今年利率目标区间将下调至 3%-3.25%并维持稳定，但特朗普自开启第二任期以来，持续施压现任美联储主席鲍威尔要求大幅降息，甚 至希望将利率降至1%以实现负实际利率，这种对美联储政策的干预意图，严重威胁了美联储的独立性，削 弱了投资者对美国货币政策稳定性的信心。 与此同时，关税政策的不确定性与美国国内政策的摇摆，进一步加剧了市场焦虑。特朗普近期威胁将对韩 国汽车、木材和药品等进口商品加征 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tether Holdings SA has emerged as a significant player in the global gold market, accumulating substantial gold reserves and positioning itself as a competitor to traditional banks in gold trading, driven by distrust in government debt and the rising gold prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tether's Gold Accumulation - Tether has rapidly increased its gold purchases, acquiring over 70 tons of gold last year, surpassing nearly all central banks except Poland [2]. - The company currently holds approximately 140 tons of gold, valued at around $23 billion, making it one of the largest known gold reserves outside of central banks and ETFs [3]. - Tether plans to continue purchasing gold at a rate of about 1 to 2 tons per week, with intentions to evaluate its gold demand quarterly [3][10]. Group 2: Market Impact and Strategy - Tether's significant gold purchases have been noted to potentially influence global gold prices, contributing to a 65% increase in gold prices last year [5][6]. - The company aims to establish a competitive trading platform for gold, seeking to rival major market players like JPMorgan and HSBC [7][10]. - Tether is exploring efficient processes for gold purchasing and is also investing in royalty companies that specialize in gold mining revenue streams [11]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Innovations - Tether is promoting a gold-backed token, Tether Gold (XAUT), which has already issued tokens equivalent to about 16 tons of gold, with expectations of significant market growth [13]. - The company anticipates that foreign governments may soon introduce tokenized versions of gold as a competitor to the dollar, reflecting a broader trend of using gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar index has experienced a significant decline, dropping over 3% in the past six trading days, marking the largest six-day drop since April 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts that this depreciation is just beginning, with the dollar index potentially falling further to 92.75, a four-year low, in the coming months [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs' foreign exchange team highlights three main currencies—Yen, Renminbi, and Euro—that are moving in the direction of dollar depreciation. A key driver of this trend has been the New York Fed's inquiry into the dollar-to-yen exchange rate, signaling a stronger government involvement compared to previous years [1][2]. - The narrative of the "exceptionalism" of the US dollar is coming to an end, as various factors are aligning to prepare for the next round of declines. Reports of European pension funds reducing their exposure to US assets are increasing, contributing to the dollar index nearing a four-year low [3]. Group 2 - The US government's approach to the foreign exchange market is becoming more proactive, as indicated by the New York Fed's inquiry into the dollar-to-yen exchange rate, which reflects a heightened concern for exchange rate levels by the current administration [2]. - The weakening of the dollar is causing concerns about cross-asset correlations, which may lead investors to adjust their foreign exchange hedging ratios. Australian pension funds are currently at historical lows in their foreign exchange hedging ratios, prompting discussions about increasing these ratios [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates an expected increase of 140 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of 0.11-0.13 yuan per liter, surpassing the previous day's forecast by 20 yuan per ton, leading to a significant increase in oil prices [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have surged again, influenced by winter storms affecting U.S. oil production and geopolitical instability, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions [4]. - As of the latest data, U.S. crude oil prices rose by 2.84% to $62.65 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 2.61% to $66.53 per barrel [4]. - The latest API report indicated a decrease of 247,000 barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, contrary to market expectations of an increase of 1.45 million barrels, further supporting the rise in international oil prices [4]. Group 2: Regional Fuel Prices - The expected fuel prices in various regions are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.77, 95 gasoline at 7.21, 98 gasoline at 8.71, and 0 diesel at 6.45 [5]. - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.74, 95 gasoline at 7.17, 98 gasoline at 9.17, and 0 diesel at 6.39 [5]. - Jiangsu: 92 gasoline at 6.75, 95 gasoline at 7.18, 98 gasoline at 9.24, and 0 diesel at 6.37 [5]. - Other regions show similar pricing trends, with slight variations across different provinces [5][6].

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对美元跌势的轻松表态，加剧市场猜测美元可能处于长期下行趋势的开端。 特朗普周二表示，他不认为美元过度疲软，此番讲话导致美元遭遇自去年关税政策出台以来的最大单日 跌幅。彭博美元指数一度下跌1.2%，特朗普的此番言论削弱了美元和美国国债的吸引力，推动了所谓 的贬值交易。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对美元跌势的轻松表态，加剧市场猜测美元可能处于长期下行趋势的开端。 "美元微笑理论"提出者、Eurizon SLJ Capital创始人Stephen Jen表示，这标志着美元贬值进入新阶段，特 朗普政府的目标是有利于美国出口商的汇率。 "这很可能只是美元下一轮下跌的开始，很多人可能对此毫无准备，"这位前摩根士丹利外汇策略师说 道。"有一代外汇分析师习惯了强势美元和美国经济强劲的局面，而且无法解读美元走弱而美国经济依 然强劲的情形。" 特朗普在艾奥瓦州告诉记者，美元近期下跌对美国企业来说是件好事。虽然这与美国官员此前的论调一 致，但他的言论在周二晚些时候引发外汇剧烈波动，部分原因是这些言论似乎肯定了美元近期的大幅走 贬。 "当那个本可以力挺美元的人都显得漠不关心时，人们就会觉 ...

美元趋势贬值：中国资产是长期的矛，实物资产是短期的 盾 20260127 摘要 美国通过降低长期按揭贷款利率和增持长债来刺激经济，但这种措施难 以长期维持，且商品价格上涨导致美元进一步贬值，实际购买力恶化。 中国受益于美国燃烧服务业和居民部门，可释放购买力，且供给侧改革 使其能更好应对全球商品通胀，有望保持相对优势。 大宗商品价格上涨具短期防御特征，金融资本寻求避险资产，包括黄金 和 AI 等新兴技术领域，但高 ROE 科技股回报率或下降。 避险资金流向实物资产，表明原有交易结构失衡。黄金对冲美元信用恶 化，SpaceX 等项目为金融资本提供出口。 全球需求疲软，通胀压力积累，美国及其金融资本不断寻找避险方向， 从科技到实物资产轮动，加剧经济不稳定性。 中国通过供给侧改革、减少对美债依赖等措施脱离美国债务周期，增强 政策自主性和供应能力，成为进攻性资产。 美国需求秩序崩塌将冲击依赖其供应链的新兴市场，而中国经济体量大 且稳定，能更好应对，并加速人民币国际化。 Q&A 如何看待美元贬值对大类资产的影响？ 美元贬值和大宗商品价格上涨在当前市场环境中是一个危险信号。这种现象通 常表明全球经济秩序尚未稳定，具有较强的 ...