Core Insights - The global economy is expected to enter a more moderate and clearer growth phase by 2026, with the U.S. economy projected to grow steadily, Eurozone domestic demand likely to recover, and Japan's performance anticipated to be lukewarm [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation "comfort zones" are becoming visible in major economies, with U.S. inflation expected to slightly cool after minor fluctuations, Eurozone likely to maintain a stable new normal, and Japan's apparent inflation rate expected to decline [1] - The interest rate differentials among the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan central banks may converge next year, with the new Federal Reserve chair expected to lead the future rate cut path, projecting a total cut of 50 basis points for the year [1] Market Predictions - The outlook for U.S. stocks in the coming year is positive, while a cautious stance is advised for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen after some fluctuations next year, with potential demand-driven opportunities in gold and industrial metals highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is masking structural weaknesses in the labor market, which could lead to a decline in the dollar once economic data resumes publication [1] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The absence of U.S. labor market data allows investors to overlook the potential trend of a structural slowdown in hiring [1] - The latest non-farm payroll report indicated a significant slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate reaching its highest level since 2021 [5] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in October was the highest for that month in over 20 years [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for the second consecutive day, marking its largest decline since mid-October, as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The dollar has declined by 6.8% year-to-date, with the first half of the year showing the worst performance in decades [5] - Analysts predict that the dollar may face significant selling pressure, particularly against the euro, with expectations that the euro could rise to 1.20 against the dollar by year-end [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The ongoing government shutdown raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to receive sufficient data to support another rate cut in December [5] - Morgan Stanley shifted its outlook on the dollar from bearish to neutral, indicating that a significant change in U.S. interest rate prospects is needed for the dollar to sustain its strength [6] - The narrative surrounding the labor market is becoming increasingly soft, which could shift the support from yield-driven factors to potential risks [5]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown significant movements this week, particularly with the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, marking a one-month high [1] - If the U.S. Treasury yield continues to climb towards 4.21%, it may further bolster the strength of the U.S. dollar [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that AI's impact on the US dollar is complex and unfolds in three distinct phases: short-term support from capital expenditure, mid-term pressure from labor market disruptions, and long-term outcomes dependent on whether AI leads to deflation or a productivity revolution [2][3][6]. Group 2 - In the short term, AI capital expenditure is boosting GDP, providing justification for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, which indirectly supports the dollar [3][19]. - Despite the rise of AI-related stocks, the dollar index has remained relatively stable, indicating that the surge in AI stocks does not automatically translate into a stronger dollar [8][12]. - AI investment is projected to contribute 1.2 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points to US GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively [15][18]. Group 3 - In the mid-term, as AI technology is applied on a large scale, it poses risks to the labor market, which could lead to increased unemployment and pressure the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, negatively impacting the dollar [5][22]. - The unemployment rate among the 20-24 age group is rising disproportionately compared to the core working age group of 25-54, indicating potential job losses due to AI [22][25]. Group 4 - In the long term, the dollar's fate will depend on whether AI leads to significant deflationary pressures or enhances productivity [26][28]. - If AI results in widespread deflation, it could force the Federal Reserve into a dovish monetary policy, leading to a depreciation of the dollar [28]. - Conversely, if AI drives a productivity revolution, it could increase real interest rates and attract global capital, thereby strengthening the dollar [28][29]. Group 5 - The article draws a comparison between the current AI boom and the 2000 tech bubble, noting key differences such as the nature of the leading companies and the capital flows involved [31][35]. - Unlike the tech bubble, where the dollar remained strong, the current situation may see the dollar becoming more vulnerable due to unhedged foreign investments in US assets [38].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials' speeches provide key guidance for future interest rate cuts, while government shutdowns create safe-haven buying pressure, but a strong dollar continues to exert short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term gold prices are constrained by both the strong dollar and interest rate expectations, with safe-haven sentiment providing a floor, likely maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern [2] - Recent observations show gold prices faced resistance at the $4000 level and have retreated to the $3950-$3970 support range [2] Group 2 - The K-line remains below the 20-day moving average, with weakening MACD momentum indicating a bearish short-term trend; the RSI is in a neutral to weak zone without clear divergence signals [3] - If gold prices break below the $3950 support, they may test the critical $3920 level; conversely, if prices stabilize above $4000 and break the recent downtrend line, bullish momentum may regain control [3] - The current gold market is in a triangular consolidation phase, with the $4050 level being a key battleground for bulls and bears [3] Group 3 - Today's gold trading focuses on two key ranges: a larger range of $4050-$3950 and a smaller range of $4000-$3962; a breakout above $3990 could signal a buying opportunity [5] - In a volatile market, the strategy should focus on high-low rhythm management, executing high sell and low buy strategies, and waiting for effective breakouts to follow the trend [5] Group 4 - WTI crude oil prices have retreated to a critical support area, with significant weakening of bullish momentum and ongoing short-term downside risks [7] - A recent inventory increase of 5.202 million barrels has negated previous bullish signals, leading to heightened market caution regarding oil price outlook [7] - If oil prices break below the $59 support level, further downside may open up, potentially testing $58 and $56.8 levels; only a recovery above $61.50 would provide a basis for reversing the downtrend [7] Group 5 - The overall trend for oil prices is leaning towards a downward direction, with a focus on inventory trends and import changes; continued inventory increases could widen the downside potential for oil prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have gradually recovered to the range of $3980-$3990 after a sell-off, but current price momentum appears insufficient to challenge the psychological level of $4000 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.16%, reaching a one-month high, which could continue to support the dollar and exert pressure on the gold market [1] - The bond market is showing signs of an independent trend, influenced by slightly better-than-expected U.S. private sector economic data, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision in December [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 61% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this is not guaranteed [1] - Any adjustments to the market's pricing of rate cut expectations will have a significant impact on gold in the coming weeks [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends - The upcoming period from December to January is traditionally a bullish season for precious metals [1]

Core Insights - AI is rapidly evolving from a technological concept to a critical macroeconomic variable, influencing the trajectory of the US dollar [1][22] - Understanding AI's impact on the dollar is essential for future asset allocation, as its effects are complex and multi-phased [1][22] Phase Summaries Phase 1: Capital Expenditure Surge Supports the Dollar - The misconception that the US's leading position in AI and the rise of related stocks will automatically strengthen the dollar is addressed [1] - Despite a surge in AI stocks in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, the dollar index remained stable, indicating that AI stock price fluctuations do not dominate dollar movements [3][4] - AI investments are projected to contribute 1.2 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points to US GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively [4][6] - The capital expenditure in AI is expected to bolster GDP, support consumer spending, and reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, thereby maintaining a stronger dollar [6][7] Phase 2: Labor Market Risks and Short-term Pressure on the Dollar - As AI transitions from an investment concept to widespread application, the labor market will face immediate risks, potentially exerting short-term pressure on the dollar [8] - The youth unemployment rate (ages 20-24) is rising disproportionately compared to the core working age group (ages 25-54), indicating a potential AI-driven job loss trend [8][11] - Major layoffs from companies like Amazon and IBM signal an impending wave of unemployment driven by AI [8][11] Phase 3: Long-term Dynamics - Productivity Revolution vs. Deflationary Pressures - The long-term impact of AI on the dollar will depend on whether it leads to deflationary pressures or productivity enhancements [12][14] - If AI results in significant deflation, it could force the Federal Reserve into a dovish monetary policy stance, leading to a depreciation of the dollar [17] - Conversely, if AI acts as a powerful tool for productivity enhancement, it could attract global capital and strengthen the dollar [17][18] Historical Context and Comparisons - The report draws parallels with the 2000 tech bubble, noting key differences such as the nature of the leading companies and capital flows [15][18] - The current AI boom is characterized by established tech giants rather than unprofitable startups, and the foreign direct investment (FDI) growth is not as pronounced as during the 2000 bubble [18][19] - The dollar's response to market shocks may be more vulnerable this time due to the lack of adequate hedging by foreign investors holding US assets [19][21] Conclusion - The report emphasizes that AI's influence on the dollar is a dynamic process, requiring a multi-phase analytical framework to understand the evolving relationship between capital expenditure, labor market conditions, and productivity [21][22]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,980, with a recent price of $3,973.69 per ounce, reflecting a 1.08% increase, and has seen a high of $3,974.89 and a low of $3,929.01 [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, potentially becoming the longest fiscal deadlock in U.S. history, which is driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Geopolitical tensions are also providing support for gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are facing dual resistance from a strengthening U.S. dollar and a slowing expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 3.75%-4.0% during the October meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that further rate cuts this year are "not a certainty" [2] - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 93% to approximately 70%, according to CME FedWatch [2] Group 3 - Technically, gold maintains a bullish structure, trading above the 100-day exponential moving average, but short-term momentum appears neutral, suggesting potential consolidation [3] - Key resistance is noted at the psychological level of $4,000, with further targets at $4,046 and $4,150 if breached [3] - Short-term support is identified at $3,835, with a potential drop to $3,722 if this level is broken [3] - The current market dynamics reflect a balance of safe-haven support from geopolitical risks and the U.S. government shutdown, countered by the strong dollar and tempered Fed rate cut expectations, leading to a likely short-term consolidation phase for gold [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a mild rebound after a significant drop, with prices currently fluctuating around $3938 per ounce, following a nearly 2% decline the previous day, attributed to a strong dollar and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [1]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold remains weak, with short-term price movements indicating further downside potential. Key moving averages suggest a bearish trend, with the 20-period simple moving average at $4002 and the 100-period moving average at $4105, indicating downward pressure [3]. - On the daily chart, gold is still in a correction phase, trading below the 20-day moving average at $4088. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are positioned at $3596 and $3359, respectively, indicating a long-term upward trend but weakened short-term momentum [4]. Market Influences - U.S. economic data is crucial for determining gold's direction, with the ADP employment report being a key focus. The market anticipates an addition of 25,000 jobs in October, which could impact the dollar's performance and subsequently gold prices [4]. - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased from over 90% to approximately 71%, which directly influences gold's attractiveness as it does not yield interest in a high-rate environment [4]. Price Levels and Support - Gold shows signs of stabilization after short-term selling but lacks a clear reversal signal. A price recovery above $4088 could restore upward momentum, while failure to rebound may lead to testing long-term support levels at $3596 or $3359 [5].

Group 1 - The commodity market is experiencing a collective adjustment, with oil prices dropping after a four-day increase, and basic metals like copper and aluminum also declining [1][3] - WTI crude oil fell below $61, a decrease of 0.8%, primarily due to a strong dollar and concerns over supply surplus, as OPEC+ announced no production increase for the first quarter [3][4] - Copper prices dropped 2.4% at one point, closing down 1.8% at $10,663.5 per ton, as supply concerns eased following positive news from Chile's national copper company [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices fell by 1.7% to $3,934 per ounce, influenced by a strong dollar and a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [4] - The recent decline in commodity prices is attributed to short-term factors such as the dollar's strength and changing supply expectations, rather than a long-term trend shift [5] - Recommendations for long-term investors include monitoring actual supply changes in oil, focusing on metals linked to "hard demand" like copper, and waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before making moves in gold [5]