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央行邹澜:当前美元走势仍有不确定性 人民币汇率在双向波动中保持基本稳定具有坚实基础
news flash· 2025-07-14 07:35
人民银行副行长邹澜7月14日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,各方面对美联储的货币政策变化非常关注, 近期美国经济增速有所放缓,但物价水平仍然高于美联储的目标水平,关税政策进一步增加了美国通胀 走势的不确定性,影响美联储降息节奏,美元指数、美债收益率波动的加大,对全球金融市场都产生了 一定的溢出效应。相比较而言,我国金融市场表现出较强韧性,运行总体平稳,影响汇率的因素是多元 的,比如经济增长、货币政策、金融市场、地缘政治、风险事件等。当前美元走势仍然有不确定性,但 中国国内基本面持续向好,人民币汇率在双向波动中保持基本稳定具有坚实基础。 ...
今日汇率公开:7月12日1美元能换多少人民币?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 05:33
Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar presents significant implications for individuals holding USD or engaging in overseas transactions, prompting questions about the optimal timing for currency exchange and future exchange rate trends [1] Exchange Rate Status - On July 12, the RMB to USD exchange rate midpoint was reported at 7.1475, marking a continuous rise for three days and reaching the highest point since November of the previous year. The onshore rate peaked at 7.1672, while the offshore rate was 7.1697, indicating a narrow spread of only 25 basis points, reflecting stable market expectations and balanced supply and demand for USD [2] Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors: - Weakening of the USD: The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to a relative weakening of the USD, indirectly supporting the appreciation of the RMB [4] - Recovery in Exports: Continuous improvement in China's export data has increased the supply of USD from foreign trade enterprises, thereby suppressing the depreciation of the RMB [5] - Stable Market Sentiment: Optimistic market expectations and reduced demand for currency exchange among investors have contributed to a balanced supply and demand, stabilizing the exchange rate [6] Historical Comparison and Future Predictions - The current exchange rate is similar to the fluctuations seen at the end of last year, which ranged between 7.10 and 7.18. However, considering the earlier drop below 7.24, the current rate represents a recovery from previous lows. For those engaged in foreign exchange transactions or foreign trade, the current rate is more favorable compared to the past two months. Future exchange rate movements will be influenced by: 1. The strength of domestic economic recovery, which could provide room for further RMB appreciation 2. The trajectory of the USD, where the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will directly impact the USD's performance 3. Trade and investment flows, where growth in exports and foreign capital inflows will help stabilize the RMB exchange rate [7] Short-term Exchange Rate Outlook - In the short term, the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.13 to 7.20, with limited potential for significant volatility unless unexpected international financial events occur [8] Currency Exchange Strategies for Different Groups - The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations varies among different groups: - Students, tourists, cross-border e-commerce practitioners, and those with foreign income or debts are directly affected by exchange rate movements, with recent RMB appreciation benefiting cross-border e-commerce sellers by increasing their RMB returns upon currency conversion [10] - Investors should closely monitor exchange rate fluctuations to avoid making impulsive foreign currency purchases at high points [10] Current Need for Currency Exchange - For individuals with immediate needs, such as tuition payments, rent, or travel expenses, it is advisable to exchange currency in batches to mitigate risks. For those merely observing the market without immediate financial implications, it is prudent to stay informed and wait for a more favorable exchange opportunity [12]
汇丰银行:美国政策转变可能主导本周美元走势
news flash· 2025-07-14 02:52
Core Viewpoint - HSBC's foreign exchange research head Paul Mackel indicates that changes in U.S. policy, along with upcoming inflation data, are likely to dictate the dollar's trend this week [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a slight increase compared to May [1] - The dollar is beginning to respond to data in a more conventional manner, suggesting that weak data could hinder the dollar's performance [1] Group 2: Trade Policy and Tariffs - Announcements regarding potential tariffs on certain countries (such as Brazil, Canada, the EU, and Mexico) and target products (like pharmaceuticals and copper) are contributing to heightened uncertainty [1] - While these tariff announcements may provide short-term support for the dollar, other policy risks must also be considered, including recent criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding renovation costs [1]
高盛周末宏观电话 - 现已提供
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the S&P 500 index, with price return forecasts raised to 6,600 points by the end of the year and 6,900 points by mid-next year, indicating a potential increase of approximately 10% from current levels [17][18]. Core Insights - The anticipated increase in tariffs by the U.S. could raise the effective tariff rate by about 5 percentage points, with a potential realization of approximately 3 percentage points by the end of the year [1][3]. - The report highlights a pause in the trend of a weakening dollar, influenced by foreign holdings of U.S. assets and potential economic data releases that could lead to a stronger dollar [5][7]. - There is a divergence in profit growth predictions for 2026, with Goldman Sachs expecting an acceleration in economic activity and a search for underperforming stocks as tariff uncertainties dissipate [19]. Summary by Sections Tariff Actions and Economic Impact - The U.S. has announced potential tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on various countries, with specific implications for sectors like copper and electronics, which could see significant impacts on import values [2][3][4]. - The tariffs on Brazilian goods are set at 50%, but the overall impact on Brazil's GDP growth is estimated to be around 0.4 percentage points, indicating limited effects on the broader economy [15]. Market Predictions and Economic Conditions - The S&P 500 index's price return forecast has been adjusted upwards due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, lower bond yields, and improved fundamentals for large-cap stocks [17][19]. - The current market breadth is narrow, with a potential for a 10% correction in the next 6-12 months, suggesting caution for investors [18]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific growth sectors such as software, services, and media entertainment, while also considering cyclical lagging industries like materials and utilities as the Fed begins to cut rates [20]. - Alternative asset management companies are noted as underperforming compared to bank stocks, with potential capital shifts towards private equity if the stock market remains resilient [20].
特朗普开启新一轮关税战,美元创4个月最强单周表现
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-12 01:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent rebound of the US dollar due to renewed concerns over inflation stemming from tariff threats announced by President Trump [1][3] - President Trump announced a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada starting August 1, and plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, shifting market focus towards potential inflation risks [1] - The ICE dollar index recorded its best weekly performance in over four months, while the Bloomberg dollar spot index rose by 0.73%, marking its best performance since the week of February 28 [1] Group 2 - The dollar index rebounded nearly 1% this week, ending a two-week decline, as investor sentiment shifted from bearish to cautious optimism following tariff announcements [3] - Speculative traders have increased their bearish positions on the dollar, with non-commercial traders' positions nearing the most pessimistic levels since August 2023 [3] - Despite the recent rebound, JPMorgan strategists believe that the factors influencing the dollar's performance may not be significant in the medium term, predicting further weakness due to tariff and policy uncertainties [3]
美银逆势看好美元:下半年跌不动了!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-11 09:07
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts limited downside for the US dollar in the second half of 2025, contrasting with some current market sentiments [2][10] Supporting Factors for Dollar Resilience - Key factors supporting the view of limited downside for the dollar include interest rate differentials, economic performance, and global liquidity demand [3] - Despite potential Fed rate cuts, if US rates remain higher relative to the Eurozone or Japan, the dollar will still attract yield-seeking investors [3] - The US economy shows remarkable resilience and growth, providing fundamental support for the dollar [3] - The dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, with structural demand particularly strong during periods of global uncertainty [3] Core Drivers of Dollar Trends in 2025 - Understanding the factors influencing the dollar's outlook in 2025 is crucial, with monetary policy, economic growth, and geopolitical stability being primary drivers [4] - The pace of Fed rate cuts compared to other central banks will be critical; a slower Fed cut could maintain dollar strength [4] - Even amid global economic slowdowns, the US's robust performance may attract capital inflows, supporting the dollar [4] - Geopolitical tensions often increase demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset [4] - The inflation trajectory in the US will directly impact central bank policies and currency valuation [4] Interconnectedness of Dollar and Forex Markets - The dollar's performance is interconnected with broader forex market trends, influencing and being influenced by other major currencies and emerging market currencies [5][6] - If the ECB or BoJ maintain a more accommodative stance, the euro and yen may face continued pressure against the dollar [5] - Strong dollar often exerts pressure on emerging market currencies, particularly those with dollar-denominated debt [6] Basis of Analysis and Potential Challenges - Bank of America's analysis is based on a comprehensive approach, considering macroeconomic indicators and policy expectations [7] - Key aspects include labor market data, inflation trends, global trade, and capital flows, all of which significantly impact dollar demand [7] - While the analysis is compelling, potential challenges include unexpected global economic recovery leading to capital outflows from the US [7] Implications for Investors - Understanding these currency forecasts is crucial for investors, affecting portfolio construction and risk management [9] - A strong dollar can be a double-edged sword, enhancing the value of dollar-denominated assets while making US exports more expensive [9] - Companies and investors with significant international exposure should consider hedging strategies to mitigate currency risk [9]
美元遭遇“52年来最惨上半年”后 美银预测:下半年跌势有限
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 05:41
Group 1 - The US dollar experienced its worst first half since 1973, but Bank of America suggests limited downside for the dollar in the second half of the year [1] - The analysis indicates that the dollar's price movements are no longer highly correlated with the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but there remains a +71% correlation with the market pricing of the Fed's 2025 interest rates during US trading hours [1] - If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates for the remainder of the year, it is expected to provide moderate support for the dollar during US trading hours [1] Group 2 - Asian investors have been the primary sellers of the dollar this year, but their motivation to sell may weaken as they await new catalysts for a bearish dollar trend [1] - In the European trading session, there is still significant room for dollar depreciation, which may require global stock markets to outperform US markets for this to occur [1] - Foreign investors' motivation to increase holdings in other currencies to hedge against dollar assets has diminished, despite global stock markets performing better than US markets in Q1 [2]
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-07-10)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-10 08:38
Group 1 - Morgan Stanley estimates that the average tariff rate in the U.S. will rise from 13.4% to 14.6% due to new tariffs announced by Trump [1] - Deutsche Bank's independent analysis suggests that the new average tariff rate could exceed 18% [1] - If Trump continues to implement additional trade measures, the overall average tariff rate in the U.S. could increase by up to 6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the dollar may soon trade as a "high-risk" currency, but the permanent shift in its safe-haven appeal has not yet been observed [2] - Citigroup analysts believe that Trump's tariffs will abruptly close the window for copper exports to the U.S., potentially lasting through the remainder of 2025 [3] - Barclays warns that proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals could lead to significant price increases and shortages, impacting consumers directly [7] Group 3 - UBS has closed its long positions in U.S. Treasuries, waiting for higher yields to re-enter the market [5] - Standard Chartered reports that reserve managers appear to be deliberately increasing their dollar holdings amid pressures on the currency [6] - Singapore's OCBC Bank predicts a shift towards a more fragmented global order, leading to sustained inflation and a weaker dollar over the next five to ten years [9] Group 4 - The Dutch Cooperative Bank notes a rebound in the dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the medium term [10] - Citic Securities highlights opportunities in the copper sector as prices are expected to return to fundamental levels amid low inventories [11] - Citic Jian Investment reports ongoing global fund rebalancing, with continued outflows from U.S. equities [12]
分析师:7.9晚评黄金走势分析,美联储会议成重头戏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 09:40
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to decline, reaching a low of $3282, influenced by expectations of high tariffs in the U.S. which may increase inflation and lead the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates, thereby supporting rising U.S. Treasury yields and stabilizing the dollar near a two-week low [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a high early in the day but entered a consolidation phase, eventually breaking below the key support level of $3297 and continuing to decline to around $3287, indicating a weakening short-term trend [3] - The current market sentiment is fragile due to trade tariff concerns, with a focus on the FOMC meeting minutes for insights into the future direction of the dollar and precious metals [1][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action has disrupted the bullish structure of the right shoulder in a four-hour head and shoulders pattern, with the daily candle closing bearish, suggesting potential for further declines [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3300-$3307, while support is found at $3280-$3277, indicating a preference for buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3][4] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on a pullback to $3280 with a stop loss at $3270 and a target of $3300-$3320 [4] - An alternative strategy recommends selling on a rebound to $3320 with a stop loss at $3330 and a target of $3295-$3280 [5]
【黄金期货收评】美元黄金负相关主导 沪金日内下跌1.00%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-09 08:24
【基本面消息】 数据显示,7月9日上海黄金现货价格报价763.39元/克,相较于期货主力价格(766.82元/克)贴水3.43 元/克。 美国总统特朗普发文表示,关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施,"该日期没有变化,以后也不会改变"。可 能未来两天向欧盟发征税函。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 7月9日 | 收盘价(元/克) | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 持仓量(手) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 766.82 | -1.00% | 310838 | 181258 | 打开APP,查看更多高清行情>> 日本5月经常项目顺差3.44万亿日元,同比增长16.5%。出口额同比下滑1.4%,进口额减少7.5%,贸易收 支逆差5223亿日元。 【机构观点】 宁证期货:全球多国回应特朗普最新关税措施。日本和韩国表示"遗憾",但均表达了通过谈判解决问题 的意愿。泰国对关税税率感到惊讶,南非总统对关税计算方式提出异议,而巴西总统态度强硬,批评美 方做法"错误且不负责任"。德国财长警告称,若不能与美国达成公平的贸易协议,欧盟准备采取反制措 施。评:虽然各国对关税均有所 ...