Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA market: PX supply has increased as PX device maintenance ended and device loads rose. PTA basis weakened, and there was selling pressure in the spot market. The long - spread trade has weakened, and PTA month - spread declined. Polyester factories' inventory improved, and there may be a slight reduction in polyester production [2]. - MEG market: East China's ethylene glycol port inventory remained at over 700,000 tons. Although coal - based ethylene glycol device load increase pressured the market, coal prices rose, squeezing the profit of coal - based devices. With mainstream device maintenance, ethylene glycol will enter a destocking phase [2]. - Polyester industry: Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further cuts due to the recent rapid rise in raw material prices [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 470.1 yuan/barrel on May 21, 2025, to 453.7 yuan/barrel on May 22, 2025, a decrease of 16.4 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 836 to 823, and the PX - naphtha spread narrowed from 266 to 246 [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 fell from 4788 yuan/ton to 4702 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped from 4895 yuan/ton to 4860 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 22.7 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee decreased by 13.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4411 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (92.07) to (89.26) [2]. - **Polyester Products**: Prices of POY, FDY, 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple fiber, semi - bright chips, etc., generally declined, and the production and sales rates of polyester products decreased [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The operating rate increased from 75.25% to 77.29%, a rise of 2.04% [2]. - **PTA**: The operating rate increased from 72.34% to 78.25%, a rise of 5.91% [2]. - **MEG**: The operating rate decreased from 52.26% to 50.00%, a decline of 2.26% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained unchanged at 91.11% [2]. Device Maintenance and Production Cuts - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further cuts in the short term due to the rapid rise in raw material prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Weak [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Low - long [1] - PTA: Low - long [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low - long [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Short on rebounds [1] - Urea: Cautious low - long [1] - Asphalt: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products. For crude oil, OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, leading to weaker prices. For products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash, their fundamentals are weak, showing downward trends. PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have improving fundamentals and present low - long opportunities. Methanol is suitable for shorting on rebounds, and urea can be considered for cautious low - long positions. Asphalt shows a sideways trend [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.60%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.22% [2] - **基本逻辑**: The main drivers are the approaching summer consumption peak and OPEC+ entering the production - increasing stage. Supply - related events include the expiration of Chevron's operating license and Saudi's production and export changes. Demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted. Inventory data shows changes in various types of oil inventories in the US [3] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, with prices fluctuating between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is weak with support, and SC is in the range of [445 - 465] [4] 3.2 LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 22, the PG main contract closed at 4150 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6] - **基本逻辑**: The cost - end oil price is consolidating, and LPG's fundamentals are bearish. Factors include increasing commodity volume, factory inventory, and a sharp rise in warehouse receipts [7] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to OPEC+ production increase and tariff impacts. Technically, it is weak, and short positions can be partially closed. PG is in the range of [4110 - 4140] [8] 3.3 L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **基本逻辑**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited price support. Next week, production is expected to increase, and the market may be weak with a fluctuation range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short opportunities [11] 3.4 PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton day - on - day [13] - **基本逻辑**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve significantly, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, focusing on cost and supply changes [14] - **策略推荐**: Short on rebounds [14] 3.5 PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **基本逻辑**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is expected to increase, demand is low, and cost support is weak. The price is expected to be in the range of 4650 - 4850 yuan/ton [16] - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term [16] 3.6 PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PX spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 yuan/ton [17] - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The PXN spread is improved but still low, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side may weaken due to PTA device maintenance [18] - **策略推荐**: PX is in the range of [6610, 6730] [19] 3.7 PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 yuan/ton [20] - **基本逻辑**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [21] - **策略推荐**: Look for low - long opportunities [21] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the MEG spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 yuan/ton [22] - **基本逻辑**: Device maintenance and low arrival volume relieve supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [23] - **策略推荐**: EG is in the range of [4400, 4480] [24] 3.9 Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market price decreased, the futures closed down, the basis widened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [25] - **基本逻辑**: Macroeconomic factors reduce market risk appetite. The glass demand is weak in the medium - term. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the inventory is concentrated upstream and mid - stream [26] - **策略推荐**: None provided 3.10 Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The heavy - soda spot price decreased, the futures fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated slightly, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28] - **基本逻辑**: The supply reduction due to maintenance provides some support, but new capacity release may lead to oversupply. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [29] - **策略推荐**: SA is in the range of [1260, 1290] [29] 3.11 Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the methanol spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2284 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 yuan/ton [30] - **基本逻辑**: The supply side has high pressure with high - load device operation and increasing arrival volume. The demand side improves slightly with MTO device load stabilizing. The cost support is weak [31] - **策略推荐**: MA is in the range of [2235, 2265] [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by the fundamentals and positive macro - drivers from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the spot price is strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda after the reduction of coal and electricity costs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the resistance level of the near - month contract at around 2550 [3]. - For PVC, stimulated by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the domestic commodity atmosphere is positive. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is limited due to concentrated maintenance, limited inventory pressure compared to the same period, and the expectation of rush exports of PVC products. But in the medium - to - long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the lack of effective boost in the real estate market. It is recommended to wait and see, with the resistance level of the 09 contract at around 5150 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot**: The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes, and alumina procurement prices. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the increase in alumina procurement willingness have led to a stronger market [7]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The current integrated profit is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [13]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of May 15, the national and Shandong regional weighted average operating rates decreased. In the second quarter, more maintenance is expected, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter. The inventory has decreased from the high point, and the current supply - demand pressure is limited, supporting the increase in the spot price [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: Many companies in different regions have carried out maintenance or production capacity adjustments, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in 2025 [25]. - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into operation 1230 million tons of alumina production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new production lines stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and Shandong alumina plants have continuously raised the purchase price, supporting the spot price of caustic soda. However, the medium - term profit of alumina is still worrying [29][36]. - **Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the price of alumina [37]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The weekly production remains at a high level [43]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The industry is fragmented, and the impact of tariffs needs to be monitored [47]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The spot price has risen, and the estimated export profit compression window may close [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Futures and Spot**: The price of PVC has fluctuated due to factors such as energy - saving and carbon - reduction news, supply - demand changes, and macro - sentiment. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the limited supply - demand contradiction during the concentrated maintenance period have led to a price rebound [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The overall industry profit is relatively low [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, the industry profit is under pressure, and the driving force for PVC is limited [72]. - **PVC Supply**: In April 2025, the production of PVC powder was 1.9264 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to April was 7.9262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. As of May 15, the overall operating rate of PVC powder decreased. The second quarter is the concentrated period of seasonal maintenance, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: Many companies have carried out maintenance, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the future [84]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate sector still has a negative impact on demand. The hard - product performance is average, and the soft - product performance is relatively better. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [92]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction of real estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory continued to decline, and the pressure compared to the same period was limited [100]. - **PVC Outer Market**: As of May 15, the Asian PVC market price was stable on a weekly basis. India's high imports are expected to continue, which theoretically benefits China's exports. However, the long - term implementation of India's BIS and anti - dumping duties will have a negative impact on PVC [118]. - **PVC Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products. The BIS extension in India may benefit exports in the short term, but long - term policies need further attention [118].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/1 2 801 2437 2395 2560 2625 2510 2705 257 332 187 160 -880 2025/05/1 3 801 2460 2415 2565 2635 2515 2705 260 340 174 160 -899 2025/05/1 4 801 2525 2470 2575 2645 2515 2738 266 340 191 155 -1002 2025/05/1 5 801 2425 2418 2580 2645 2515 2738 262 332 132 155 -899 2025/05/1 6 801 2397 2375 2560 2645 2515 2730 261 332 107 60 -859 日度变化 0 -28 -43 -20 0 0 -8 -1 0 -25 -95 40 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将去化至季节性低位，警惕伊朗后期发货仍不及预 期，5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Sino-US high-level economic and trade talks from May 10th to 11th in Geneva, Switzerland were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and making substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs. 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for the initial 90 days, and the remaining 10% of the tariffs on these goods will be retained as stipulated in the executive order. The additional tariffs on these goods under Executive Order No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, will be cancelled. PX maintenance is intensive, and the internal and external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. Coupled with the maintenance of domestic PTA plants, the basis of PTA has strengthened significantly. Some traders' concentrated restocking has led to a certain tension in the market. Due to the contraction of the supply side of PTA and PX, the positive spread in the market has emerged, and the PTA monthly spread has significantly increased. Polyester factories' inventory reduction is close to two weeks, and downstream restocking is concentrated, so the inventory of polyester has improved [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4935 to 5095, with a change of 160 [2]. - MEG domestic price increased from 4475 to 4635, with a change of 160 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4750 to 4874, with a change of 124 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 4349 to 4506, with a change of 157 [2]. - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6650 to 6815, with a change of 165 [2]. - Short fiber basis increased from 80 to 136, with a change of 56 [2]. - 6 - 7 spread increased from 30 to 54, with a change of 24 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, with a change of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price increased from 5975 to 6000, with a change of 25 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber increased from 675 to 815, with a change of 140 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 2039 to 6198, with a change of 159 [2]. - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 6039 to 6198, with a change of 159 [2]. - Carbonated polyester bottle chip price increased from 6139 to 6198, with a change of 59 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 795 to 815, with a change of 20 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 320 to 289, with a change of -31.40 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10650 to 10680, with a change of 30 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4000 to 3865, with a change of -135 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16500 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 14330 to 14400, with a change of 70 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1674 to 1538, with a change of -135.86 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7040 to 7175, with a change of 135 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 121 to 66, with a change of -55.40 [2]. - Primary low - melting point staple fiber price increased from 7170 to 7230, with a change of 60 [2]. Market Conditions - Short fiber: Polyester staple fiber prices of production enterprises increased, traders' prices were warm, but downstream procurement willingness was low, and on - site transactions were scarce. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6600 - 6800 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6750 - 6950 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6750 - 6950 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery [2]. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6160 - 6300 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures fluctuated strongly during the day. The offer on the supply side of bottle chips followed the increase, but the downstream chasing sentiment was not high, and market transactions were cautious. The price center of bottle chips rose today [2]. Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, with a change of 0.02 [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 58.00% to 64.00%, with a change of 6.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices declined slightly. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week. Saudi Arabia's production increased in April, but the decline in production from some OPEC countries offset the growth. Russia is considering extending gasoline export restrictions. Oil prices are under pressure and oscillating after a continuous rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures rose. In May, the volume of low - sulfur arbitrage cargo shipped from the European market to Singapore is expected to decrease, while the inventory in Singapore is increasing due to more low - sulfur fuel oil blending components from the Middle East and South America. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strongly supported by the increase in summer power generation demand. The absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, asphalt futures rose. This week, the total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt increased, the social inventory decreased, and the total operating rate of asphalt plants increased. Supply is expected to continue to increase, and market demand will increase slightly in the north but be affected by rainfall in the south. The absolute price of BU may remain stable, but the upside space is limited [3]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, polyester futures rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation. Crude oil prices strengthened, PTA device maintenance continued, and downstream inventory and operation rates were high. PTA futures may oscillate strongly, and the supply of ethylene glycol tightened in the short term, leading to a stronger price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures rose. As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased slightly. The shortage of butadiene and the strengthening of crude oil prices led to an obvious rebound in butadiene rubber prices. The performance of natural rubber was relatively weak, and the Sino - US joint statement had limited impact on rubber prices [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices showed certain fluctuations. The domestic methanol supply is at a high level due to good producer profits, while the Iranian device load has declined, and the arrival volume is lower than expected. The MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and the operation of traditional downstream industries is relatively stable. Methanol prices will recover, but there is still pressure on the upside [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices showed certain trends. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure is being relieved. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made important progress, and there may be an intention to rush for exports in the short term, so polyolefin prices will recover [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation has made significant progress, the upside space for PVC is expected to be limited [8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI June contract closed down $0.52 to $63.15 per barrel, a decline of 0.82%. Brent July contract closed down $0.54 to $66.09 per barrel, a decline of 0.81%. SC2506 closed at 484.6 yuan per barrel, down 2.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.59%. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ending May 9 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the SHFE, FU2507, rose 1.12% to 3057 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2507, rose 3.08% to 3647 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur arbitrage cargo volume from Europe to Singapore is expected to decrease in May, but the inventory in Singapore is increasing [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE, BU2506, rose 1.24% to 3521 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.50%, up 1.12% from last week; the social inventory rate was 35.32%, down 0.41% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 35.73%, up 3.62% from last week [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4874 yuan per ton, up 2.61%; EG2509 closed at 4506 yuan per ton, up 3.61%. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, rose 240 yuan per ton to 15235 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber, NR, rose 180 yuan per ton to 13035 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 175 yuan per ton to 12380 yuan per ton [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2505 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2137.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between 258 - 262 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between 337 - 342 US dollars per ton [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 7200 - 7350 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 87.11 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 1096.2 yuan per ton [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the market price of PVC in East China, North China, and South China increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on May 14 and May 13, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the crude oil production of all OPEC + member countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared with March. Although eight OPEC + oil - producing countries vowed to start relaxing production cuts, the actual increase in supply was less than expected [11]. - The EIA data showed that as of the week ending May 9, the inventory of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 28, 2022 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][65][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow and PP production profit [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Short - term bullish due to improved macro - environment and peak - season expectations, but upside limited [1][2][3] - LPG: Weakening due to reduced oil - price rebound momentum and lower import costs [1][5][6] - L: Sideways with weak supply and demand, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][8][10] - PP: Sideways with short - term market - sentiment - driven fluctuations, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][11][13] - PVC: Sideways with weak fundamentals, short - term wait - and - see [1][14][16] - PX: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, but may correct [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Bullish in the short - term with cost - driven fluctuations, may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [1][20][22] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, may correct [1][24][26] - Glass: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways with macro - fundamental game [1][28][29] - Soda ash: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways [1][30] - Methanol: Bearish with a loose supply - demand pattern and weak cost support, bearish on rallies [1][32] - Urea: Bullish in the short - term with export - policy support, but watch for short - selling opportunities [1] - Asphalt: Bullish in the short - term with oil - price rebound and increased downstream开工率, but high valuation [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.88%, Brent up 1.64%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+增产利空 released, Sino - US trade progress and peak - season expectations boost prices, but OPEC+扩产 limits upside. Supply may decrease in Iraq and CPC exports. Demand is expected to increase globally but decline in India. US commercial crude inventory decreased while strategic reserve increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, sell bull - spread options. SC focus range is [475 - 495] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 12, PG main contract closed at 4362 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: Oil - price rebound weakens, import costs drop, and fundamentals are bearish with increased inventory and decreased PDH开工率 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term bearish as it follows oil prices. Short - term, short with a light position. PG focus range is [4300 - 4350] [7] L - **Market Review**: L09 main contract rose 1.6%. L主力持仓量 decreased slightly, and L仓单量 remained unchanged [9] - **Basic Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and import windows are mostly closed. Demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. Sino - US trade progress improves sentiment, but supply - demand is weak and inventory accumulates. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. L focus range is [7080 - 7180] [10] PP - **Market Review**: PP09 main contract fell 0.3%. PP主力持仓量 increased, and PP仓单量 decreased slightly [12] - **Basic Logic**: A new PP device has been put into operation, and future PDH device commissioning is to be watched. Tariff easing may increase PDH开工率, but it's the demand off - season. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. PP focus range is [7000 - 7080] [13] PVC - **Market Review**: V09 main contract fell 0.7%. PVC仓单 increased [15] - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January. Supply is high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Exports may weaken. Registration extension leads to increased仓单, and there is no upward drive. Watch for spring - maintenance and macro - policy changes [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term participation. V focus range is [4700 - 4830] [16] PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, PX spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged. PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have various maintenance and restart situations. Demand from PTA devices is weak. Inventory is high but improving. May fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focus range is [6620, 6750] [19] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 9, PTA spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases. Short - term, it follows cost fluctuations and is bullish, but may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focus range is [4680, 4780] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance eases supply pressure. Import is higher than expected. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases slightly. Short - term, it is bullish but may correct [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focus range is [4280, 4400] [27] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the decline of the futures market slowed. Shahe basis widened, and仓单 increased [28] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The market faces supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and inventory accumulation. Price decline is limited, but recovery depends on policy effects and supply reduction [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focus range is [1020, 1060]. Watch the 5 - day moving average. Exit short positions if it breaks through [29] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices increased, and the futures market fluctuated. Basis fluctuated slightly, and仓单 and effective forecasts decreased [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to device maintenance, but supply is still excessive as开工率 remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. Cost center moves down [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focus range is [1300, 1350] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, methanol spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Methanol main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices restart and imports are expected. Demand is weak, with MTO开工率 at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and cost support is weak [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focus range is [2250, 2310] [33]

观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将去化至季节性低位，警惕伊朗后期发货仍不及预 期，5月计入盛虹停车和进口正常 假设，库存将累积，但4月底低库存仍将交易，05若存在预期外供应 缺口，库存将维持低位，预计为做多提供安全边际。 甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/12 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/04/3 0 | 801 | 2453 | 2415 | 2650 | 2660 | 2720 | 2755 | 258 | 340 | 218 | 170 | -812 | | 2025/05/0 6 | 801 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - PTA: Due to intensive PX maintenance, the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. With domestic PTA device maintenance, PTA basis has strengthened, and some traders' concentrated restocking has caused market tightness. Due to the contraction of PTA and PX supply, the market's positive spread has emerged. It is rumored that mainstream factories are considering canceling warehouse receipts for contract supply. PTA month - spread has widened, polyester factories' inventory reduction is close to two weeks, and downstream has a round of concentrated restocking. Polyester inventory has improved. According to the balance sheet, PTA inventory will be significantly reduced in May, and port inventory will continue to decline. If polyester inventory remains strong, PTA inventory may continue to decrease in June. Polyester factories are less likely to cut production [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Trump's tariff policy has disrupted global trade, but the impact of ethane seems to have been minimized. East China MEG port inventory remains at over 700,000 tons. The load increase of coal - based MEG devices has pressured the market, but coal prices have rebounded. The profit of coal - based devices has been compressed, and mainstream MEG device load is about to be under maintenance, leading MEG to enter the inventory reduction stage [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data Comparison - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 458.9 yuan/barrel on May 6, 2025, to 468.2 yuan/barrel on May 7, 2025, with an increase of 9.3 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1027.1 yuan/ton to 1063.5 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3080 to 1.3126. PTA spot price increased from 4480 yuan/ton to 4565 yuan/ton, and the main - contract price rose from 4362 yuan/ton to 4466 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 403.7 yuan/ton to 385.1 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 295.7 yuan/ton to 291.1 yuan/ton. The main - contract basis decreased from 123 to 108, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 102,622 to 98,978 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG main - contract price rose from 4130 yuan/ton to 4199 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha increased from (117.35) yuan/ton to (101.54) yuan/ton, MEG domestic price increased from 4190 yuan/ton to 4255 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis increased from 40 to 55 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 748 to 768, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 202 to 213 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price increased from 6420 to 6490, POY cash flow decreased from (64) to (89); FDY150D/96F price increased from 6610 to 6630, FDY cash flow decreased from (374) to (449); DTY150D/48F price increased from 7695 to 7715, DTY cash flow decreased from 11 to (64). The filament sales rate increased from 30% to 60%. In polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple price increased from 6385 to 6405, staple fiber cash flow decreased from 251 to 176, and the staple fiber sales rate increased from 73% to 125%. In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price increased from 5540 to 5620, chip cash flow decreased from (44) to (59), and the chip sales rate increased from 37% to 70% [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 78.18%, PTA operating rate decreased from 73.93% to 71.03%, MEG operating rate remained at 58.80%, and polyester load remained at 89.96% [2]. c. Device Maintenance Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to conduct routine maintenance on its Huizhou PTA - 2 device starting from April 28, 2025, with a production capacity of 2.5 million tons, and plans to start routine maintenance on its Dalian PTA - 2 device around May 10, 2025, with a production capacity of 2.2 million tons [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In the expansion cycle, the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and they are in a callback and consolidation phase. Suggest a long - term view of supply surplus and a short - term view of narrow - range oscillations with a rebound - biased short position. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [1][3][4]. - **LPG**: It follows the cost side for oscillatory adjustments. In the long - term, it is bearish, and in the short - term, it is oscillatory. Suggest selling bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [1][8][9]. - **L**: The spot price is falling, with abundant supply and a weak oscillatory trend. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][12]. - **PP**: The basis is weakening, and the market is in a weak oscillatory state during the off - season. In the long - term, it is suggested to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [1][15]. - **PVC**: The market is in a contango structure, with limited upward momentum in the fundamentals and a weakening oscillatory trend. Short - term observation is recommended. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [1][17]. - **PX**: There is a supply - demand contraction, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to widen the px - sc spread is recommended. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [1][19]. - **PTA/P - R**: The supply - side pressure is relieved, but the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. Short - term observation or seizing opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the ta - eg spread is recommended. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - side pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [1][25]. - **Glass**: The domestic loose monetary policy has limited impact on demand, and the market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [1][29]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is abundant, and the growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down. The market is bearish in the medium - term. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [1][31]. - **Methanol**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [1][32]. - **Urea**: Although the supply pressure is large, the fertilizer export growth is fast, and there is a bottom - support at the cost side. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1860 - 1920] [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is expected to have a short - term rebound. BU is expected to be in the range of [3390 - 3450] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 1.81% [2]. - **基本逻辑**: OPEC+ started to increase production in April, and the increase rate exceeded expectations. The EIA estimated the global oil demand in 2025 to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 200 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 60 million barrels [3]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, the supply is in surplus, and the oil price fluctuates between 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. SC is expected to be in the range of [450 - 465] [4]. LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 7, the PG main contract closed at 4450 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **基本逻辑**: The upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient, and LPG's own fundamentals have few contradictions. The port inventory has increased, and the PDH operating rate has risen [8]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish. In the short - term, it is oscillatory. It is recommended to sell bull spread options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4380 - 4430] [9]. L - **行情回顾**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the supply is abundant. The agricultural film is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. - **策略推荐**: Take short positions on rallies, and L is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [12]. PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been put into operation, and the export of products is under pressure. The basis is weakening, and it is in the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies. PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. - **策略推荐**: Take short positions on rallies, and PP is expected to be in the range of [6950 - 7050] [15]. PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **基本逻辑**: New production capacities have been added, and the supply is under pressure. The demand is weak, and the export is stable. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. - **策略推荐**: Observe in the short - term, and V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4870] [17]. PX - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 288 yuan/ton [18]. - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is weakening, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to seize opportunities to widen the PX - SC spread. PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [19]. - **策略推荐**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6210 - 6320] [20]. PTA - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the PTA price in East China was 4560 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4434 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 126 yuan/ton [21]. - **基本逻辑**: PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The demand side is relatively good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to seize opportunities to increase TA processing fees and the TA - EG spread. TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [22]. - **策略推荐**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4400 - 4490] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 4214 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4155 yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was 33 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 59 yuan/ton [24]. - **基本逻辑**: Devices are under maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The to - port volume is high, and the demand side is expected to weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies. EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [25]. - **策略推荐**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4110 - 4200] [26]. Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation was stable, and the market was in a weak state. The basis in Shahe weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **基本逻辑**: The central bank's policies have limited impact on demand. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is improving slowly. The market expectation is pessimistic. FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080] [29]. - **策略推荐**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1040 - 1080], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash decreased, and the market was under pressure. The main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - **基本逻辑**: Some soda ash enterprises have maintenance plans in May, and the supply may contract. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. - **策略推荐**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1290 - 1320] [31]. Methanol - **行情回顾**: On April 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2443 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2251 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 216 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 192 yuan/ton [32]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has increased, and the cost support is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions. MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [32]. - **策略推荐**: MA is expected to be in the range of [2200 - 2250] [33].