文 任泽平 2024年以来，股市气贯长虹、振奋人心，黄金白银爆发史诗级行情，背后是什么原因？未来还能涨多高？ 我在2021年提出"乱世黄金"，2024年9月提出"信心牛"，2025年提出"拥抱康波周期，大宗商品元年"，均被验证。 这些判断均是基于20多年对宏观周期的分析框架，宏观周期不同于短周期、技术层面的噪音分析，是看长远、看本质的更高维层面，坚持长 期主义和理性精神的判断。 1、对股市和房市的看法 拥抱康波周期，不要成为老登。 慢牛，就是老登负责慢，小登负责牛。 有了对康波周期的判断，当前这个世界发生的一切就都得到了解释：科技革命，AI爆发，大宗商品元年，地缘动荡，全球放水。 房地产市场显著回升还需要再等等 ，现在主要是促进止跌回稳，重点发展新基建、新质生产力，打造新引擎。 不要错过康波周期，这是我们这代人的红利，拥抱信心牛、科技牛和大宗商品。 房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。10多年前，我提出行业分析框架。2015年判断"一线房价翻一倍"，2020年判断"房地产将 出现历史性大顶"。有同学听了我的建议，前几年卖出房子，买入黄金和科技股。 本人对房地产市场的判断，一直追求专业、理性、负责任。 2 ...

微博里刷到下面这条，本来以为是个假新闻，因为其提到白银兑付缺口1.2万吨，按目前的银价换算之后，价值小几万亿人民币，这显然离谱到 姥姥家了。 大概是这么个事，具体，大家等后面的官方信息吧。 这事给我们的教训就是： 不过，我又通过几个方式交叉验证了一下，近期，深圳这个"杰我睿"事件本身是真的， 受害者主要是在小红书上， 发酵的比较厉害（大家可以 自己搜），根据受害者自己统计，金额可能确实上百亿了。 事情略复杂，简单来说，核心是两层。 第一层，这家公司，通过贵金属相关的"小恩小惠"，营造出让客户薅羊毛、占便宜的氛围， 形成了一个巨大的资金池 ——比如，我们知道，如 果手里有多个旧金饰，然后想去融起来，打造一块新的，那么，就得付加工费，但这家公司说，我"零工费"帮大家打，于是，很多人会把手里的 黄金，邮寄给该公司，黄金就沉淀下来了；另外，这公司和客户说，搞活动，现在黄金市场价1100/g，但在我这儿买，今天1080/g，比市场价 低，让利给家人们，于是，又有人打钱过来，现金也沉淀了以来，最终黄金+现金，形成一个巨大的资金池。 第二层，这公司还设"私盘"（类似小型赌场）， 在平台里，客户可以做多或者做空黄金/白银 ， ...

000 【TITUE C Lyon 999.9 999 9 000 ENNE t RING PP P e GDTS GOLD 980 3 999.9 Prin FINE GDD GOLD NET WE 105 2000 NET WT 2000 o the 4.886 2025年黄金涨幅超60%、白银近150%，创下历史最强年度表现；2026年开年至今，黄金涨超15%突破5100美元关口，白银涨幅更是飙升超40%，突破100美 元/盎司整数关口。 7 47 Mel 价格走势 近三月 | 近六月 | 近 ● Au9999 +47.78% 1144.45 1050.16 955.87 861.58 767.29 2025/07/28 2026/01 金银正经历史诗级牛市，开年更是暴涨逼空。 2026年更是美联储放松周期。当前美国经济呈现"冰火两重天"：一方面是传统经济没落带来的结构性萧条，另一方面则是新一轮科技革命推动的结构性繁 荣。为改善传统经济、支持新经济以及特朗普中期选举，美联储财政货币政策进入放松周期，甚至干预美联储货币政策独立性。 此外，白银兼具工业属性，额外受益需要于新能源需求爆发。白银是所有金属中导电 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. Stock index volatility centers are expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held. Precious metal market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on their respective fundamentals [6][10][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. Due to the current low Treasury bond yields, the steady recovery of the Chinese economy, rising core inflation, and increased risk appetite, Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure, and caution is needed [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. With the increase in market sentiment and incremental funds, the stock index volatility center is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the gold - buying behavior of central banks are favorable for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise in precious metals and the significant increase in speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [12][13][14] Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last trading day, they showed weak oscillations. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the market is entering the demand off - season. Although the supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is slightly higher than last year. Prices may continue the weak oscillation, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16] - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, it slightly corrected. The demand for iron ore is low, the supply situation is complex, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, but there are signs of stabilizing. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, they slightly rebounded. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak. The futures have stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound space may be limited. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [21] - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is fluctuating in a narrow range at a low level. The overall supply is still in excess, but the short - term supply may be reduced. After the price decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23][24] Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Speculators increased their net long positions in crude oil futures and options, the number of active oil and gas rigs increased, and the US imposed new sanctions on Iran. Crude oil is expected to continue rising, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [25][26][27] - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, it rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the market expected short - to - medium - term supply to tighten. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [28] Chemicals (including Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda) - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to be in a supply - demand tight situation this week. Due to rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls, prices may continue to rise in the short term. The downstream demand is stable, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [29][30] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It was mainly supported by the rising price of butadiene and high device operating rates, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene price trends and downstream demand recovery [31][32][33] - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The overseas supply is shrinking, and the cost is supported, but the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34][35] - **PVC**: Last trading day, it rose. Although it is in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing [36][37][39] - **Urea**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The short - term price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level [40][41] - **PX**: Last trading day, it rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate is declining, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate in the low - level range [42][43] - **PTA**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has little change, the demand is seasonally decreasing, but the cost and market sentiment boost the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory accumulation in January and February [44] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is shrinking due to increased domestic and overseas device overhauls, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream polyester is in seasonal maintenance. It is expected to have limited upward space in the short term, and investors should operate carefully [45][46] - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - side logic. It is expected to oscillate with the raw material price, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [47] - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded, the supply is expected to shrink during the Spring Festival, the export is increasing, and it is mainly driven by the cost side. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors can participate cautiously on dips [48][49] - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the price is stable for the time being, and it lacks substantial support in the short term. Caution is advised [50][51] - **Glass**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the inventory is increasing, the market demand is weak, but the manufacturers' shipments are good due to pre - holiday stocking. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [52][53] - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, it rose. The winter seasonal characteristics are significant, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. Affected by the alumina price fluctuation, the pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate, but caution is still needed due to the unchanged fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches [54][55] Agricultural Products (including Pulp, Carbonate Lithium, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apples, Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Pulp**: Last trading day, it fell. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, the downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but rational treatment is needed [56][57] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, the inventory is decreasing, and there is strong support for the price. However, the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control is necessary [58][59] - **Copper**: Last trading day, it rose. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate supply is tight. However, the demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [60][61] - **Aluminum**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. The high price suppresses the demand, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. It is expected to adjust at a high level [62][63][64] - **Zinc**: Last trading day, it rose. The domestic refined zinc production is increasing, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [65][66] - **Lead**: Last trading day, it fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production capacity of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [67][68] - **Tin**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is generally tight due to the slow resumption of production in Wa State and the crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and risk control is needed [69] - **Nickel**: Last trading day, it fell. The global geopolitical situation is tense, the Indonesian nickel quota is reduced, and the cost is rising. However, the stainless - steel consumption is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation [70] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, they rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the domestic soybean import is slowing down. The supply of soybean is relatively loose, the cost support is weakening, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [71][72] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose, supported by the price of related oils and crude oil and favorable export data. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the price correction [73][74][75] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Chinese tariff on Canadian rapeseed will be reduced. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing. Investors can consider closing the spread - widening positions between soybean and rapeseed products [76][77] - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell. The USDA report is favorable for the market, and the medium - term external cotton price is expected to be strong. The domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory increase is lower than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand has resilience. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the domestic market is under pressure in the short term. Investors can buy on dips after the price correction [78][79][80] - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar futures oscillated. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is recommended to short on rallies [82][83][84] - **Apples**: The domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be strong, and investors can go long on dips [86][87][88] - **Pigs**: The main contract fell. The supply is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter, and the market is waiting for the marginal change in consumption during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see [90][91] - **Eggs**: The main contract rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January, but the supply - side improvement is emerging. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [92] - **Corn & Starch**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. The northern port inventory is low, the spot price is strong, and the domestic corn is basically in balance of production and demand. The demand for corn starch is slightly improving, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to follow the corn market [93][94] - **Logs**: The main contract rose slightly. The supply is shrinking at a high level, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is entering the pre - holiday end, and the cost is rising. The overall supply - demand is tending to be loose, but the cost support is strengthening [95][96][97]

Market Overview - The international precious metals market has regained upward momentum, with spot gold surpassing $5070 per ounce, increasing by 1.23%, and spot silver rising by 5.00% to reach $110 per ounce [1] - A significant fluctuation was observed in the previous trading day, where spot gold briefly exceeded $5100 per ounce before dropping below $5000, ultimately closing at $5010.08 per ounce, a 0.47% increase [3] - Spot silver experienced a dramatic rise of 14% during the day, reaching $117 per ounce, but closed at $103.90 per ounce, up 0.95% [3] Regulatory Actions - In response to market volatility, regulatory bodies have implemented measures to strengthen risk control, including limits on the maximum number of contracts for day trading in silver and tin futures [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for copper and aluminum futures, effective January 28 [4] Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence in institutional outlooks on precious metals, with some institutions maintaining a bullish stance. Société Générale predicts gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by year-end, while Morgan Stanley sets a bullish target of $5700 per ounce [5] - Various futures companies express concerns about the current high volatility in precious metals, with expectations of significant price fluctuations, particularly in silver [6][7] - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical risks, continues to support the long-term outlook for precious metals [7]

相关机构表示，格陵兰岛局势混乱，加之特朗普抨击美联储威胁央行独立性、美欧关系恶化以及地缘局 势动荡，投资者资金流出美元资产，致使美元指数大幅走弱；对此，特朗普表示如果欧洲抛售美国资 产，将招致美国的重大报复。除短期因素外，全球各国央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）正积极减少对美国 资产的敞口、转为增持黄金，特朗普在达沃斯关于格陵兰岛的言论进一步加速了该趋势，波兰央行批准 购买150吨黄金的计划，其黄金持有量上限从550吨提高到700吨。全球地缘风险、逆全球化趋势延续， 贵金属的行情或仍有支撑。 每日经济新闻 风险提示：数据来源：wind，矿业ETF2025年涨幅106.11%，在有色板块10只ETF中排名第一。提及个 股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表 现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提 及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要素、风险等级及收 益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从 ...

智通财经1月26日讯，市场全天震荡调整，大小指数分化明显，深成指、创业板指高开低走，盘中均跌 超1%。沪深两市成交额3.25万亿，较上一个交易日放量1630亿。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，全市场 超3700只个股下跌。从板块来看，有色金属板块涨幅居前，其中贵金属概念领涨，四川黄金8天4板，晓 程科技、湖南黄金、盛达资源等多股涨停，紫金矿业创历史新高。油气概念走强，中国海油创历史新 高，洲际油气4天3板。化工板块震荡拉升，红宝丽、澄星股份涨停。下跌方面，商业航天再度陷入调 整，多只商业航天人气股大跌，中国卫通、中国卫星跌停。截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深成指跌 0.85%，创业板指跌0.91%。 板块方面 贵金属板块全天强势，湖南黄金、中金黄金、招金黄金、恒邦股份、西部黄金、四川黄金、山东黄金等 10余股涨停。消息面上，国际金价持续创下新高，现货黄金日内涨突破5100美元/盎司，纽约期金日内 涨2.26%突破5130美元/盎司。 中信证券研报认为，市场对美联储宽松货币政策的预期是推动贵金属价格上涨的最重要因素。另一方 面，全球央行购金潮的持续涌动，也成为支撑本轮黄金大牛市的核心驱动力，据中国人民银行官方储备 资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current non-ferrous metal sector is in the mid-stage of an upward cycle, with gold and silver prices expected to continue rising due to tight supply and demand conditions, while industrial metals, particularly minor metals like tungsten and tin, may experience significant price elasticity but are subject to supply-demand disruptions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The non-ferrous metal index saw a total increase of 94.73% in 2025, with an 18.59% rise year-to-date as of January 23, 2026 [1][7]. - The global macro environment, characterized by significant fiscal deficits, increasing national debt, and currency overproduction, is likely to drive up prices in the non-ferrous metal sector [2][8]. Group 2: Metal Performance Outlook - The performance outlook for metals such as copper and aluminum is heavily influenced by supply-demand dynamics, with tighter supply conditions potentially leading to larger price increases, especially for smaller industrial metals [3][9]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are primarily driven by financial attributes, with their prices expected to rise in a loose monetary environment and amid increasing geopolitical tensions [3][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy should focus on selecting resource sectors with high price increase certainty and identifying companies with strong investment value, despite the potential for increased geopolitical risks due to de-globalization and supply chain restructuring [4][11]. - The concept of balancing cyclical and growth opportunities in resource investments is not a new logic for 2026; rather, it remains a critical perspective in identifying investment opportunities within the sector [4][10]. Group 4: Risks and Adjustments - The primary risk facing the resource sector is the declining risk-reward ratio due to significant price increases in certain sub-sectors and individual stocks over the past year [5][6][11]. - Companies should consider switching investments based on risk-reward ratios to mitigate potential volatility in the resource sector [6][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has different trends and outlooks for various commodities and financial products. For example, the bond futures are expected to face pressure, the stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation range, and the precious metals market is expected to have significant volatility [6][9][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.07%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan [5] - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure. It is recommended to remain cautious [6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.15%, - 0.66%, 3.36%, and 3.06% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation and economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to drive the central fluctuation range of the stock index to gradually rise. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose 2.58% and 6.97% respectively. Eurozone and US PMI data were released [11] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise and increased speculation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13] Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils in different regions were given [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar demand is in a downward trend, and the market is entering a demand off - season. The supply pressure has eased, and inventory consumption is fast. The prices are likely to continue weak oscillations, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were given. National pig iron daily output is low, and port inventory is rising [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened, but there are signs of stabilization in futures. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose 1.00% each. The spot prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in different regions changed. The supply and demand of ferroalloys are in a certain situation, and the cost fluctuates slightly [22] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure persists. The cost is at a low level, and there is support for the low - level range. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24] - **Outlook**: CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new US sanctions on Iran have pushed up crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [25] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and stood above the moving average group. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the crack spread continued to rise [27] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [28] Chemical Products Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed higher quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. The market has a strong desire to test higher prices, but demand follow - up is insufficient [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market will face a supply - demand tight situation this week, and prices may continue to rise in the short term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 6.99%. Last week, the market rose, mainly supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but limited by weak downstream demand. The inventory is accumulating [31] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a strong oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and whether the device overhauls in January will be implemented [32] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rose 3.29% and 3.27% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis was stable [34] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The supply is shrinking, the cost support is still there, the demand of tire enterprises is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.82%. The spot price increased, and the basis was stable. The current is the traditional off - season for PVC demand [36] - **Outlook**: Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of demand [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.39%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased, and the basis was stable [40] - **Outlook**: The short - term urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products has different changes, and the inventory situation is given [40] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 2.93%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread are at a certain level, and the PX load has declined [42] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the PX start - up rate is increasing, and the market sentiment and cost - end crude oil may provide support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the fluctuation of external crude oil [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 4.21%. The PTA device load is stable, the polyester load has decreased, and the processing fee has increased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The inventory is still low, the supply - end changes are small, the demand - end has a seasonal decline, but the cost - end and market sentiment boost the market. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract increased in volume and rose 5.99%, mainly driven by device production cuts and market sentiment. The overall and synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol operating loads have decreased, and some devices have plans for production cuts or shutdowns [45] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - end of ethylene glycol has shrunk due to increased domestic and foreign device overhauls, and the market sentiment has been boosted. However, the port inventory still has pressure, and the pre - arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. There is obvious seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in January and February, and it may gradually enter the de - inventory channel in March. The upward space in the short - term may be limited. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose 3.45%. The short - fiber device load has increased slightly, the downstream terminal start - up rate has decreased locally, and the factory's raw material inventory has increased [47] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, the terminal factory is mainly digesting raw material inventory, and the low inventory may provide bottom support. It is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic and may oscillate with raw material prices. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory stocking [47] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose 4.4%. The bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, the factory load has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts and restarts around the Spring Festival [48] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has decreased slightly, and there are expectations of supply reduction around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still on the cost - end. It is expected to oscillate with the cost - end. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [48] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, rising 2.04%. The production has decreased slightly, the inventory is still accumulating, the equipment operation is increasing, the downstream demand is general, and the price is relatively stable [49] - **Outlook**: The off - season characteristics are significant. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price is expected to adjust steadily. It is recommended to be cautious [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1064 yuan/ton, rising 1.33%. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory is increasing, the trader's inventory is also increasing, the enterprise's shipment has slowed down, and the downstream demand is shrinking [52] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is calm, the industry profit is low, the downward space is limited. It may rise due to a technical rebound in the short - term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [52] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1945 yuan/ton, rising 0.15%. In winter, the supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is weak, and the transportation in the north is affected by cold weather [53] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. The pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate due to the price fluctuation of alumina, but considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [54] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, rising 0.78%. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, and the prices of various types of pulp have declined to varying degrees [55] - **Outlook**: The downstream market's inventory stocking is approaching the end, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the disk has a short - term technical rebound, it is necessary to treat it rationally [56] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 7.31% to 181,520 yuan/ton. The macro - liquidity release has pushed up the commodity pricing center [57] - **Outlook**: The supply of lithium resources is elastic, the production is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, the inventory is gradually decreasing, and the price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [57] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,830 yuan/ton, rising 2.21%. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate is in short supply [58] - **Outlook**: The demand is suppressed by high prices, the inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is expected to adjust at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [59] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,315 yuan/ton, rising 0.75%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, falling 0.11%. The alumina market has a supply surplus, and the high aluminum price suppresses downstream demand [61] - **Outlook**: Both the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain are under pressure in the short - term. It is expected to adjust at a high level [61] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,690 yuan/ton, rising 0.51%. The domestic refined zinc production has increased, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [63] - **Outlook**: The zinc price lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [64] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, rising 0.29%. The lead concentrate processing fee is low, the supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is increasing slightly [66] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [66] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.56% to 447,140 yuan/ton. The exchange has introduced cooling measures, and the geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the price center [68] - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to control risks [68] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 1.2% to 146,760 yuan/ton. The "strategic reserve" metals have generally risen, and the Indonesian nickel policy has changed [70] - **Outlook**: The nickel ore price has support, but the stainless - steel market is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [70] Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract and soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% each. The spot prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in different regions changed. The market demand expectation has improved, and the South American weather concerns provide support [71] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, the cost support has been adjusted downward, the soybean meal demand has a moderate increase, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long - positions for soybean oil when the price rises [72] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen due to profit

锌矿供给端持续收紧，国内冶炼企业节前补库动作带动原料需求上行，亚非拉地区再工业化进程对镀锌 产品刚需增长，相关产业基本面呈现向好态势。上期所对锌期货相关合约调整交易规则，完善市场交易 环境，助力产业平稳运行。 镀锌制品行业：作为锌下游应用核心领域，受益于亚非拉地区制造业与基建复苏，海外镀锌板订单需求 逐步增长，国内镀锌企业出口业务规模有望扩大，带动行业产能利用率提升，同时国内基建项目开工预 期也将支撑国内镀锌产品需求。 有色金属矿采选业：锌矿采选是产业链上游环节，矿端供给紧张态势下，拥有优质锌矿储备的企业原料 自给率优势凸显，能够抵御原料价格波动风险，保障生产稳定性，部分企业通过扩产与技改提升锌精矿 产能，进一步巩固行业地位。 产业链公司 驰宏锌锗：公司主营锌、铅、锗系列产品的采选、冶炼、深加工与销售，拥有丰富的锌矿资源储备，原 料自给率处于行业较高水平，同时布局锌深加工业务，延伸产业链条，产品覆盖多个下游应用领域。 市场对锌的炒作集中在三方面。一是逆全球化背景下，亚非拉国家基建与制造业复苏拉动锌的工业需 求，市场此前对这一需求增量关注度不足；二是锌矿供给端持续偏紧，冶炼费下行印证原料紧张格局， 供需错配预期 ...