Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, precious metal prices may enter a shock adjustment phase, and when gold and silver prices fall below the 5 - day moving average, it can be regarded as a reference for phased profit - taking. In the long run, the contraction of the US dollar credit will drive up the value of physical currency, and the price centers of gold and silver will continue to move upward. The long - term bull market of gold has not reversed, and the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [1][3]. - The expected trading range for London gold spot this week is [3900, 4400] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver spot, it is [48, 55] US dollars per ounce [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Key Information - The Bank of Japan may slightly raise its economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 at its October policy meeting and maintain the view that the economy is moving towards a mild recovery. Bank of Japan official Takada So said it is necessary to further adjust monetary easing policies, the inflation target has basically been achieved, concerns about the impact of tariffs have eased, attention must be paid to the risk of inflation exceeding expectations in Japan, the process of reducing bond purchases must be cautious and time - consuming, the US economy is unlikely to experience a significant recession, and now is the best time to raise interest rates [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order on October 17 (local time), imposing a new 25% tariff on imported medium - and heavy - duty trucks and parts starting from November 1, and will also impose a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars [2]. - White House economic advisor Hassett said that if the government shutdown does not end, the White House will consider taking stronger measures [2]. 2. Price Logic - On Monday during the Asian trading session, precious metals fluctuated. Before the opening of the domestic night session, the prices of gold and silver in the overseas market rose slightly, but immediately fell back after the opening of the domestic night trading session, and the domestic market was weaker than the overseas market. After the price volatility in the overseas and domestic markets significantly increased, both COMEX and domestic exchanges increased margin requirements and issued risk warnings, indicating a further over - heating risk in the market [1][3]. - In the short term, the positive factors are gradually being digested. Positive signals from China - US trade negotiations have reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Non - farm and inflation data are to be released this week, which may end the trading logic of "no news is good news" after the National Day. The silver lease rate has declined from its peak, and the overseas spot situation has been alleviated temporarily [3]. - In the long term, debt over - issuance and anti - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the US dollar credit. Gold, as a currency beyond sovereignty, is still the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks. The trend of global central banks' gold purchases remains unchanged, and the long - term bull market of gold has not reversed. The silver trend is still consistent with that of gold, and the value loosening of credit currency has a spill - over effect on physical currency, so the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [3]. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 20, 2025 is presented, including the characteristic index and the sector index. The commodity index is 2231.41, down 0.06%; the commodity 20 index is 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index is 2183.97, up 0.37%. For the precious metals index on October 20, 2025, the current value is 3394.67, with a daily decline of 3.31%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month increase of 16.11%, and a year - to - date increase of 53.44% [43][44][46].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on November 5 regarding the legality of Trump's tariff policies is seen as a pivotal moment that could reshape the U.S.-China trade war and impact Trump's political future [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Context - The U.S. International Trade Court previously ruled that Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was an overreach of authority, stating that trade deficits do not constitute a national emergency [3]. - The Federal Circuit Court upheld this ruling with a 7-4 vote, emphasizing that the Act was intended for financial crises and not for initiating trade wars [3]. - Trump's legal strategy now relies on the conservative majority in the Supreme Court, which includes three justices he appointed, but the court has historically required congressional authorization for significant economic decisions [3][5]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's potential attendance at the hearing is viewed as a form of pressure on the justices, raising concerns about the integrity of the judicial system and the principle of separation of powers [5]. - The outcome of the case could have significant financial implications, with estimates suggesting that if the tariffs are deemed illegal, the government may need to refund billions in tariffs collected, further straining the U.S. budget [5][6]. Group 3: International Reactions - The situation has prompted international responses, such as India's declaration to restrict the export of rare earth materials to the U.S., which some interpret as support for China, although India's actions are seen as self-serving rather than a strategic alliance [6]. - China's recent export controls on rare earths are part of its strategy to counter the tariff war, indicating a complex interplay of global trade dynamics [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The November 5 ruling is anticipated to be a critical juncture for both the U.S. and China, with potential ramifications for international trade order and the effectiveness of unilateral tariff measures [8]. - Regardless of the ruling, the ongoing trade conflict highlights the challenges of unilateralism and the risks of self-inflicted economic harm through protectionist policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The easing of US-China trade tensions and progress in the Russia-Ukraine situation have led to a decline in gold prices, which fell below $4,300 per ounce, impacting the A-share market and causing significant losses in gold stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold stocks led the decline in the A-share market, with the ETF tracking leading non-ferrous metal companies dropping 2.3% [1]. - Major gold companies such as Western Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold experienced declines exceeding 9% and 7%, respectively [1]. - Conversely, companies like Chuangjiang New Material and Yahua Group saw gains of over 6% and 1%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - A video call between US and Chinese trade representatives on October 18 indicated a willingness to resume trade negotiations, contributing to the easing of market tensions [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed readiness to participate in a meeting with US President Trump and Russian President Putin, signaling potential diplomatic progress [3]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - Despite the recent drop, Bank of America noted that gold assets still represent a low percentage of global investment portfolios, at 2.3% for institutions and 0.5% for private clients, indicating a lack of overcrowding in the market [3]. - The World Gold Council reported that retail gold investment accounts for less than 2% of global assets, and central bank gold reserves are below 30% of total foreign reserves, both far from historical highs [3]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Outlook - Analysts suggest focusing on the entire non-ferrous metals sector rather than solely on gold, as sectors like rare earths, lithium, and copper show promising growth potential [3][4]. - Rare earth companies are expected to report significant profit increases, with North Rare Earth projecting a net profit growth of 272.54%-287.34% for Q3 [3]. - In lithium, advancements in solid-state battery technology are anticipated to boost demand, with leading companies maintaining a self-sufficiency rate of over 50% in lithium salt production [4]. - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions, particularly from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is crucial for energy transition and new production capabilities [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector is viewed as a key player in the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and increasing demand for strategic metal resources [4][6]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) offers a diversified investment approach, tracking an index with significant weightings in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, thus reducing risk compared to investing in a single metal [6].

中国发展网讯 记者宋璟报道 10月18日，上海国家会计学院与美国亚利桑那州立大学合作办学硕士学位 项目毕业开学典礼在国际会议中心举行。典礼由上海国家会计学院合作项目部副主任傅秋莲主持。 上海国家会计学院院长、党委副书记卢文彬在致辞中向毕业生和新生分别致以祝贺与欢迎，并对美国亚 利桑那州立大学多年来的精诚合作表示感谢。他说，2025年，上国会-凯瑞金融财务EMBA项目在英国 《金融时报》全球EMBA百强榜单中位列中国第5、全球第9，连续三年跻身全球前10，这一卓越成绩离 不开双方的共同努力与相互支持。 典礼现场举行了隆重的颁奖仪式，由卢文彬、亚太项目副院长邵保民为优秀学员颁发"优异学习成绩 奖""宣传大使"，表彰在过去两年中，展现杰出专业能力、领导力和社会责任感的优秀学员和校友。 EMBA13期校友、浙金资产运营股份有限公司常务副总裁兼浙江浙金融资租赁有限公司董事长郑晓泳作 为宣传大使代表发言。他认为广泛宣传项目是最好的感恩与传承，并表示将继续肩负责任，做好项目的 品牌宣传，让更多的人了解金融财务EMBA和会计(数据分析)MiM项目。 在"感恩母校 致谢捐赠"环节，金融财务EMBA 21期王强、周伊，会计(数据 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and record high prices for gold and silver [2][3]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that while short-term tariff uncertainties persist, precious metals are expected to trend upward in the long term due to factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][8]. - The performance of companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt is noted, with both showing strong revenue growth and profitability in their recent quarterly reports [6][8]. Industry Overview - **Basic Industry Data**: The non-ferrous metals sector comprises 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 45,379.37 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 39,608.97 billion yuan [3]. - **Price Performance**: The absolute performance over the last 12 months is reported at 69.1%, with a relative performance of 50.0% [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Trends**: Gold futures closed at 999.8 yuan per gram, up 10.9% week-on-week, while silver futures rose 10.53% to 12,249 yuan per kilogram [6]. - **Company Performance**: Zijin Mining reported a total revenue of 2,542.0 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, with net profit rising by 55.45% to 378.64 billion yuan [6][8]. New Energy Metals - **Cobalt Market**: The report notes that cobalt prices are on the rise, with the average price for electrolytic cobalt reaching 381,000 yuan per ton, a 9.01% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Company Insights**: Huayou Cobalt's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 589.41 billion yuan, up 29.57% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 39.59% to 42.16 billion yuan [8]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the performance of precious metals stocks, particularly companies like Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver stocks such as Xingye Silver Tin [7][8].

Group 1 - The authority and power of the United Nations are perceived to be weakening, particularly due to the withdrawal of the United States from a key UN institution, which is seen as a setback for global dialogue and cooperation [1] - The current global landscape is characterized by a coexistence of globalization and de-globalization, leading to fragmentation and a need for collective examination of the underlying causes of this situation [1][2] - International organizations are facing significant challenges, with trade being obstructed and cooperation diminishing, particularly as the UN approaches its 80th anniversary [1] Group 2 - China is emerging as a leader in new sectors such as solar energy and electric vehicles, supported by a large pool of skilled engineers and an active private sector that is innovating and expanding internationally [2] - The unique and rapid process of Chinese modernization, along with significant infrastructure development, has shifted China from a follower to a leader in multiple fields [2] - The forum discussed the necessity for countries to work together to overcome the negative impacts of political differences on technological development, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among nations [2]

Group 1 - The authority and power of the United Nations are perceived to be weakening, particularly due to the withdrawal of the United States from a key UN institution, which is seen as a setback for global dialogue and cooperation [2] - The current global landscape is characterized by a coexistence of globalization and de-globalization, leading to fragmentation and a need for collective examination of the underlying causes [2][3] - International organizations are facing significant challenges, with trade being obstructed and cooperation diminishing [2] Group 2 - China is recognized as a leader in emerging fields such as solar energy and electric vehicles, supported by a large pool of skilled engineers and an active private sector [3] - The unique and rapid process of Chinese modernization, particularly in infrastructure development, has shifted China from a follower to a leader in multiple sectors [3] - There is a call for countries to work together to overcome the negative impacts of political differences on technological development [3]

Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing heightened interest and speculation, reminiscent of the 2008 stock market surge, with significant public discussion and investment in gold [1] - In March 2025, gold prices surged with a 40% annual increase and a 120% increase over three years, overshadowing traditional stock indices like the S&P and Nasdaq [3] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves while the proportion of dollar reserves is declining, indicating a shift in global monetary dynamics [3][7] Market Dynamics - Trump's potential influence on the dollar and monetary policy is a focal point, with concerns about a "weak dollar" strategy resurfacing [5] - Economic challenges such as debt expansion and lack of growth are becoming more pronounced, leading to increased uncertainty in the market [5] - The trend of declining confidence in the US dollar is evident, with central banks favoring gold as a low-risk asset amid rising geopolitical tensions [7][9] Investment Trends - By mid-2025, gold has become a preferred asset for investors seeking safety, with household allocations to gold reaching a 50-year high of 3% [9] - Despite some skepticism about high gold prices, institutions like Morgan Stanley and Dalio are recommending increased gold allocations in portfolios [9][11] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with historical performance showing parity with equities, although short-term volatility is expected [11][13] Structural Issues - Trump's presidency is viewed as a magnifying glass for underlying structural issues in the US economy, including debt pressure and declining dollar credibility [13] - The transformation of the global monetary system and evolving geopolitical risks are identified as fundamental drivers of gold's value [13][15] - The ongoing uncertainty in the market suggests that gold's value is likely to remain stable, making it a reliable asset in turbulent times [15]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing consolidation, with the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showing volatility, initially rising over 2% before closing down 1.69% on October 17, 2023, with a total trading volume of 57.74 million yuan [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of October 16, 2023, the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) has a latest scale of 606 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 122 million yuan in October [1]. - Among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market, this ETF ranks first in terms of scale and liquidity [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Notable performers include the copper leader Yinxing Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit, lithium leader Shengxin Lithium Energy rising over 2%, and other lithium stocks like Zhongfu Industrial also increasing by over 2% [3]. - The top ten gainers include five gold leaders, with Western Gold rising over 3% and Zhongjin Gold increasing over 2% [3]. - On the downside, companies like Bowei Alloy and Chuangjiang New Materials saw declines exceeding 6%, negatively impacting the index [3]. Group 3: Gold Price Drivers - International gold prices are approaching 4,400 USD/ounce, driven by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing de-dollarization trends [5]. - Historical data shows that gold prices typically rise during Fed rate cut cycles, with an average increase of 6% within 60 days of such announcements [4]. - The global official gold reserves reached a record high of 36,274 tons by June 2023, with China increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, totaling 7.406 million ounces by the end of September [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Nonferrous Metals - Analysts suggest that nonferrous metals are entering a long-term upward price cycle due to capital expenditure trends and increasing demand for strategic metal resources amid globalization challenges [7]. - Specific sectors like rare earths, lithium, and copper are expected to benefit from favorable catalysts, with rare earth companies projecting significant profit increases in their upcoming quarterly reports [6][7]. - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, particularly from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which may tighten global copper supply and drive prices higher [7]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide a diversified investment approach across various nonferrous metals, reducing risk compared to investing in single metal sectors [10]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, with weightings of 27.6% for copper, 14.5% for gold, 13.1% for aluminum, 10.4% for rare earths, and 8.4% for lithium, making it suitable for portfolio diversification [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the end of August, precious metals such as gold and silver have broken through the 4 - month shock range and continued to rise. The bull market pattern of precious metals is expected to continue. In the long - term, the return of gold's monetary attribute under the trend of anti - globalization will push up the price center. In the medium - term, the expectation of double easing of US monetary and fiscal policies is the main driver, and events related to geopolitical, financial market or other tail risks may amplify market fluctuations. In the short - term, attention should be paid to events such as the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations. If there are turning points, precious metal prices may adjust, but investors can still adopt a low - buying strategy [2][4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metal Market Trading Main Lines - In 2025, the precious metal market trading mainly revolved around Trump's trade and fiscal policies and the Fed's monetary policy, with occasional geopolitical fluctuations and continuous central bank gold purchases. Before August, it was mainly about Trump's trade policy, and the risk - aversion sentiment first rose and then declined. After August 7, when the reciprocal tariffs took effect, the market shifted to trading based on US monetary policy and the expectation of double easing [8]. - The recent rise in precious metals started in late August, driven by multiple factors: Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Lisa Cook, the expectation of Fed rate cuts after the cooling of non - farm data and Powell's dovish speech, the rise of long - term government bond yields in major overseas economies, the release of upward momentum after the long - term shock of London gold in the range of $3450 - 3500, the concentration of risk events such as the US government shutdown and Sino - US trade friction escalation in October, and the increase in silver ETF investment demand and Indian seasonal demand leading to a shortage of silver supply [8][11]. II. Re - examination of Precious Metal Trading Logic (1) Gold - **Analysis Framework Change**: Before 2022, the analysis framework of gold mainly focused on its financial attribute, with a strong negative correlation with the US real yield. Since 2022, this negative correlation has weakened, and the significant increase in central bank gold purchases is considered the most important factor supporting the rise of the gold price center [16]. - **New Influencing Factors**: Since September 2024, gold ETF investment has turned into net inflows, reflecting the market's expectation of future liquidity easing and the shift of asset allocation to gold. Geopolitical factors have a more long - term impact on gold prices. New gold trading centers are emerging, such as Dubai and China, and digital currencies are reshaping the gold narrative [17][18][19]. - **Overseas Economies' Debt Issues**: The US federal government debt has exceeded $37 trillion, accounting for about 127% of GDP in 2024. Other major overseas economies such as Japan, France, the UK, and Germany also face various fiscal problems, which may lead central banks to continue increasing their gold reserves [20][28]. - **US Monetary Policy Path**: The market is concerned about the Fed's independence and its judgment on the US economic fundamentals and financial market liquidity. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. If the Fed's independence is interfered with, it may lead to long - term inflation in the US, which is beneficial to gold. The market expects the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet soon due to the cooling of the labor market and inflation [31][33][36]. (2) Silver - **Price Characteristics**: Silver has both financial and industrial attributes, and its price is driven by gold in a liquidity - abundant environment. However, it does not have a monetary attribute, and the gold - silver ratio has risen in the past two years [41]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Since 2021, silver has faced a supply shortage for five consecutive years. The recent "short squeeze" in the London silver market was caused by factors such as the increase in silver ETF investment demand and Indian seasonal demand. Although the current shortage has shown signs of relief, the medium - and long - term bullish factors remain unchanged [45][53]. III. Conclusion - The main logic framework of precious metals has not changed significantly in the medium - and long - term, and the bull market pattern will continue. In the short - term, attention should be paid to events such as the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations. Any adjustment in precious metal prices can be regarded as an opportunity to enter or increase positions [7][55].