Report Information - Report Title: "Curve: Can It Flatten After Steepening? — Interest Rate Weekly (Week 2 of May)" [1] - Report Date: May 12, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi [2] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The current short - end downward movement depends more on the central bank's stance and operations, as well as the decline of funding rates and certificate of deposit rates. If the marginal indicators improve, the short - end downward space may open up [6] - The long - end is likely to oscillate in the short term, and a downward trend requires catalytic factors. The current bond market is favorable, but more catalysts are needed for interest rates to decline. It is advisable to maintain duration and wait for opportunities, and appropriate leverage can be added under the background of falling funding rates [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Short - end Interest Rate Analysis - After the double - cut policy was announced last week, the interest rate curve steepened, with the short - end down nearly 5bp and the long - end flat. The central bank's funding rate DR007 dropped significantly to 1.54% on May 9 [2] - Historically, after the reserve requirement ratio cuts were implemented since 2021, the short - end interest rates declined, oscillated, and increased 3, 2, and 3 times respectively. The necessity of short - end decline after reserve requirement ratio cuts may not be high [2] - Currently, non - bank institutions are buying short - term bonds, but large - bank - dominated allocation disks have not entered the market. Banks have been net sellers in recent weeks. However, large banks' funds lending has increased recently, and if the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate further approaches the policy rate, the short - end downward space may open up [4] - The key factor for the short - end to decline further lies in the central bank's stance and operations, as well as the decline of funding rates and certificate of deposit rates [6] Long - end Interest Rate Analysis - This year, the long - term bond has a high probability of short - term oscillation and needs catalytic factors to decline due to factors such as the weakening of broad - money expectations, repeated tariffs, and narrow term spreads [8] - The central bank's Q1 2025 monetary policy implementation report has relatively neutral impacts on the bond market. Although it mentions secondary trading of treasury bonds, new expressions are put forward to prevent interest rate risks [8] - The April inflation data is in line with expectations. The core CPI maintains a 0.5% positive growth. The real interest rate is close to the historical lower quartile, but the further downward space is limited [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent interest rate cut, leading to a decline in short-term interest rates, which is expected to support liquidity in the banking sector [10][11] - The total market capitalization of the banking sector is approximately 9818.7 billion, representing 11.5% of the overall market [1] - The report indicates that the performance of the banking sector has shown positive trends, with absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months at 6.9%, 9.8%, and 28.4% respectively [3] Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The banking sector comprises 41 listed companies, with a total market value of 9818.7 billion and a circulating market value of 9727.2 billion [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted 8,361 billion in 7-day reverse repos, reducing the operation rate from 1.50% to 1.40% [11] - A further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release 1 trillion in liquidity [11] Interest Rates - The report notes that the 1M, 3M, and 6M bill rates are at 1.19%, 1.09%, and 1.08% respectively, showing declines of 21bp, 2bp, and 11bp compared to the previous period [10][17] - The average financing cost for interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) is reported at 1.77% [14] Government Bonds - The yields for 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bonds are reported at 1.42%, 1.46%, 1.50%, 1.64%, and 1.84% respectively, with slight fluctuations noted [13][37] Financing Activities - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 8,577 billion, with a net financing of 3,357 billion, indicating a significant increase from the previous period [14] - The banking sector has seen a cumulative net outflow of 6,366 billion since May 2025 [15]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, effective from May 15 [2] - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies will be reduced by 5 percentage points [2] Industry Events - The 20th "China Optics Valley" International Optoelectronic Exposition will be held from May 15 to 17, focusing on optoelectronic technology and emerging fields such as AI and smart manufacturing [3] - Multiple industry events, including the 2025 World Digital Education Conference and the 17th China International Battery Technology Exchange Conference, will take place next week [3] E-commerce Promotions - Major e-commerce platforms like Tmall and Suning will kick off their 618 pre-sale activities on May 13, with JD.com also launching its promotional season [4] Stock Market Updates - The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of its first-quarter index review on May 16, with changes effective from June 9 [5] - Over 180 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a peak on May 12 when 15 companies will have a total unlock value of 144.69 billion yuan [7] Earnings Reports - Major internet companies including Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, and NetEase will release their earnings reports next week, with JD.com reporting on May 13 and Alibaba on May 15 [6] New Stock Listing - Tian Gong Co., Ltd. will be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13, focusing on the research, production, and sales of titanium and titanium alloy materials [10]

Group 1 - Pakistan Air Force fighter jets have launched airstrikes on multiple Indian air force bases, including locations in Gujarat, Ambala, and Jalandhar, with reports of Pakistani jets entering Indian airspace [1] - Pakistan has officially initiated a military operation named "Copper Wall" in response to ongoing provocations from India, targeting various locations across India, including a missile storage facility in Punjab [3] - During the operation, Pakistan reportedly conducted cyber attacks that led to approximately 70% of India's power grid being paralyzed [4] Group 2 - The Pakistani military has also launched a separate operation named "Bunyan-un-Marsoos" as retaliation for what it describes as Indian aggression, with explosions reported in Karachi's Shah Faisal Colony and Malir areas [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental side shows a marginal recovery trend, but the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations continue to increase. The overseas market shows signs of economic cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation. The bond market is in a sideways shock, and the bond bull environment remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The 30 - year TL2506 contract fell 0.32%, the 10 - year T2506 contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2506 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, as did their open interests [11][28] - **CTD Bond Performance**: For the 30 - year, 200012.IB fell 0.33 and 210005.IB fell 0.15; for the 10 - year, 220003.IB fell 0.06 and 240025.IB remained unchanged; for the 5 - year, 240014.IB rose 0.03 and 220021.IB rose 0.11; for the 2 - year, 240024.IB rose 0.03 and 220002.IB rose 0.09 [11] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On May 7, China agreed to have contact with the US, and the Chinese finance minister said China would achieve the 5% growth target in 2025. On May 8, three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, etc. The public fund industry worth over 30 trillion yuan underwent systematic reform [31] - **International News**: On May 8, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than expected [32] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y bonds widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened slightly, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts weakened slightly [40][44][50] - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract decreased slightly [61] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.78%, and the money market tightened. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were stronger than long - term ones, with 1 - 7Y yields down 2 - 5bp and 10Y, 30Y yields up 1bp to 1.63% and 1.88% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [65][69] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 1617.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 781.7 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.52%, and the money market tightness improved [72] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1433.8 billion yuan, total repayment was 813.6 billion yuan, and net financing was 620.169 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, down 81 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield rose slightly, the VIX index fell slightly, the 10 - year treasury bond yield in China rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium fell slightly [82][85][89] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy shows a marginal recovery, but the recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and policy expectations will continue to increase [92] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy shows signs of cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation, with the possibility of delaying the rate - cut time to July [92] - **Strategy**: The bond market is in a sideways shock. Considering the long - term need for a low - interest - rate environment, the bond bull environment remains unchanged. However, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the coke market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory and weak post - holiday market sentiment. The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand balance has limited upward space for iron - water production. The coke main contract is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The relevant national ministries are promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, and the central bank has cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity. The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered by 0.25 percentage points since May 8th [9]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Trump and the UK Prime Minister reached a limited bilateral trade agreement, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [9]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Short - term coke supply elasticity is better than that of coking coal. The current iron - water output is 244.35 + 4.23 = 248.58 tons, and the supply - demand is in balance, with limited upward space for iron - water. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 1 yuan/ton, and the demand in the sector is under pressure due to the tariff war, facing seasonal decline in the second and third quarters [9]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the impact of tariffs, the demand in the sector is under pressure, and market confidence is insufficient. The coke main contract should be treated as operating in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 9, the coke futures contract open interest was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 96,300 lots. The 9 - 5 contract month - spread was - 122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The registered coke warehouse receipts were 1,190 lots, an increase of 300 lots. The futures rebar - coke ratio was 2.09, an increase of 0.08 [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 9, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,510 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The coke basis was 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 [25]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry Production**: In March, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The output of coking coal in March 2025 was 4,161,470 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.23% [30]. - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.05%, a decrease of 0.38%. The average daily coke output was 53.50, a decrease of 0.27. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 1 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 21 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 55 yuan/ton, and the average loss of secondary coke in Inner Mongolia was 48 yuan/ton [34]. - **Downstream Situation**: As of May 9, the average daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 245.64 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 11.14 tons compared to the same period last year. As of May 1, 2025, the total coke inventory was 9.6949 million tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons compared to the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 21.29% [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: As of May 9, the coke inventory of 18 ports was 2.8368 million tons, a decrease of 71,100 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 671,030 tons, a decrease of 4,190 tons, and the available days of coke were 12.1 days, a decrease of 0.07 days [43]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Export and Import**: From January to March 2025, the coke export volume was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%. In April 2025, China exported 1.0462 million tons of steel, and from January to April, the cumulative steel export volume was 3.7891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20% [48]. - **Real Estate**: In March 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. As of the week of May 4, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - scale cities was 1.5584 million square meters, a decrease of 9.60% month - on - month and an increase of 48.76% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 510,100 square meters, a decrease of 6.18% month - on - month and an increase of 49.63% year - on - year, and in second - tier cities was 776,400 square meters, a decrease of 6.94% month - on - month and an increase of 52.71% year - on - year [51][56].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese hurdler Wu Yanni has achieved a career-high ranking of 23rd in the women's 100m hurdles, marking a record for Chinese athletes in this event [1] Group 1: Achievements and Rankings - Wu Yanni's recent performance in the Diamond League, with times of 13.00 and 12.96 seconds, has further improved her world ranking [1] - This ranking places Wu Yanni alongside Japanese athlete Tanaka Yumi, sharing the title of Asia's top female hurdler [1] - Wu Yanni's journey includes winning a bronze medal at the 2017 National Games and a silver medal at the 2021 National Games, where she also set the season's best Asian time of 12.87 seconds [4] Group 2: Background and Development - Born in 1997 in Sichuan, Wu Yanni began learning dance at the age of four and switched to athletics at twelve [1] - Her significant achievements include winning the National Youth Games in 2015 and the National Athletics Championships in 2023 with a time of 12.93 seconds [4] - Wu Yanni's performance at the Chengdu Universiade in 2023, where she set a personal best of 12.76 seconds, secured her qualification for the Paris Olympics [4]

Group 1 - David Perdue was confirmed as the U.S. Ambassador to China by the Senate with a vote of 67 in favor and 29 against [2] - Perdue has a long career in management and international trade, having served as CEO of Dollar General and Reebok, and held executive positions at Sara Lee [1] - His nomination was announced by President Trump, who emphasized Perdue's role in maintaining peace in the region and fostering productive relations with China [2]

5月7日，受政策面提振，A股三大股指全线高开，此后高位震荡。截至收盘，上证指数报3342.67点，涨 0.80%；深证成指报10104.13点，涨0.22%；创业板指报1996.51点，涨0.51%。沪深两市合计成交14683 亿元，较前一日放量1321亿元。 金融与房地产板块5月7日携手走强，成为带动股指上涨的主要力量。以申万行业划分，银行指数5月7日 上涨1.49%，房地产指数上涨1.06%。 复盘历次央行降准操作，降准后A股短期有较大概率走强。在最近21次全面降准生效后的5个交易日， 有12次上证指数录得上涨。最近一次降准发生在2024年9月27日，当天沪指跳空上涨2.88%，降准后5日 累计上涨超过10%。从板块表现看，历次降准后，银行、非银金融、地产等行业短期上涨较为明显，家 电、建材等地产链相关行业也往往有所表现。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲表示，"一行一局一会"出台了全面、清晰、务实的一揽子金融支持政策，以 稳市场稳预期为目标，释放出强烈的宏观调控信号。当前，短期资本市场资金较为充足，一揽子政策有 望进一步提升市场对新增流动性的预期，实现稳定资本市场的目标。中长期来看，总量政策调控和结构 性的精准 ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日上午在国新办新闻发布会上宣布了三大类共十项措施。随后，包括降 准、降息、新设立结构性货币政策工具等在内的多项政策火速落地。其中，降准将自5月15日起执行， 降息自5月8日起实施。 业内专家表示，此次推出的一揽子货币政策措施，超预期、力度大、工具组合多。降准方面，既针对大 中型银行，也阶段性调降汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司存款准备金率；降息方面，不仅下调政策利率， 还下调了住房公积金贷款利率，并首次全面下调结构性货币政策工具利率。相关政策是积极贯彻落实中 央政治局会议要求的体现，充分彰显了适度宽松的货币政策立场，也是支持稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期的有力举措。 据悉，此次调整范围涵盖新发放和存量住房公积金贷款。调整后，新发放的住房公积金贷款将执行新的 利率，存量住房公积金贷款利率将在2026年1月1日起下调。 降准将有效满足 长期流动性资金需求 "此次降准分为两部分。"业内专家表示：一部分是针对大型银行和中型银行降准0.5个百分点，可向市 场提供长期流动性超1万亿元；另一部分是完善汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司存款准备金制度，阶段性 将其存款准备金率从目前的5%调降至0%。 降准可有 ...